8/7/2025

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Good day, everyone, and welcome to today's Clean Energy Fuels second quarter 2025 earnings conference call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, you will have an opportunity to ask questions during the question and answer session. You may register to ask a question at any time by pressing the star and one keys on your telephone keypad. Please note this call is being recorded and that I will be standing by should you need any assistance. It is now my pleasure to turn today's program over to Robert Vreeland, CFO.

speaker
Robert Vreeland
Chief Financial Officer

Thank you, Operator. Earlier this afternoon, Clean Energy released financial results for the second quarter ending June 30, 2025. If you did not receive the release, it is available on the investor relations section of the company's website at www.cleanenergyfuels.com, where the call is also being webcast. There will be a replay available on the website for 30 days. Before we begin, we'd like to remind you that some of the information contained in the news release and on this conference call contains forward-looking statements that involve risk, uncertainties, and assumptions that are difficult to predict. Such forward-looking statements are not a guarantee of performance, and the company's actual results could differ materially from those contained in such statements. Several factors that could cause or contribute to such differences are described in detail in the risk factor section of Clean Energy's Form 10-Q filed today. These forward-looking statements speak only at the date of this release. The company undertakes no obligation to publicly update any forward-looking statements or supply new information regarding the circumstances after the date of this release. The company's non-GAAP EPS and adjusted EBITDA will be reviewed on this call and exclude certain expenses that the company's management does not believe are indicative of the company's core business operating results. Non-GAAP financial measures should be considered in addition to results prepared in accordance with GAAP and should not be considered as a substitute for or superior to GAAP results. The directly comparable gap information, reasons why management uses non-gap information, a definition of non-gap EPS and adjusted EBITDA, and a reconciliation between these non-gap and gap figures is provided in the company's press release, which has been furnished to the SEC on Form 8K today. With that, I will turn the call over to our President and Chief Executive Officer, Andrew Littlefair.

speaker
Andrew Littlefair
President and Chief Executive Officer

Thank you, Bob. I'm pleased to say that the second quarter of this year again demonstrated the underlying strength of our overall business. Despite the continued shifting regulatory atmosphere, uncertainty around tariffs, and other external distractions in the market, we posted a very solid performance with $102 million in revenue, over 61 million gallons of renewable natural gas sold, $17.5 million of adjusted EBITDA for the quarter. And with $241 million in cash and other investments, we remain on solid financial footing. I will keep my remarks on the short side today and let the results speak for themselves. But I do want to give a little color to emphasize my previous point about the strength of our fundamental business, which is allowing us to update our projections for our 2025 financials. Bob will be giving you the details, but suffice to say, we believe we will be exceeding even the high end of our original guidance. We distributed a press release last week that highlighted a number of deals that we have made over the last several months with transit agencies across the country. We signed our first transit agreement over 25 years ago, and since that time, we have continued to steadily grow this business. Today, we fuel over 9,000 transit buses every day at 115 locations. This is due to several factors. Buses equipped with natural gas engines are not only reliable in tough conditions, but they are clean and quiet. Operators very much appreciate their dependability. Cities like that the buses dramatically reduce harmful NOx pollutants, and passengers appreciate they don't smell diesel fumes as they ride along. Also, more and more transit agencies are seeing the double benefit of carbon emissions reductions plus cost savings by converting their fleets from traditional CNG to RNG. With almost 100 different RNG supply contracts, no other company can ensure a steady flow of this clean fuel like clean energy, which is why we are winning so many contracts. Like the transit market, our business with waste companies is consistent and growing. As the recognized leader in the alternative fuel space, we can expand existing relationships with refuse companies and win new deals. once more by the assurance of a steady supply of R&G as these companies expand their natural gas fleets. We continue to be bullish on the heavy-duty truck market's adoption of R&G. While we, as well as Cummins, acknowledge that the sales of trucks equipped with their new X15N engine aren't where we had hoped they would be at this point, there are signs that continue to point in the right direction. Between the change in administrations in Washington and the evolving regulatory atmosphere in California, all truck sales have been hit hard while operators wait for more clarity. Fortunately, that clarity is beginning to emerge. There is acknowledgement during our discussions with both carriers and shippers that they want to continue to look at ways to reduce harmful Scope 1 and Scope 3 emissions. One of the most promising recent policy changes is that these fleets no longer are forced to consider only one technology and one that is too costly and still unproven. That, along with other developments like market leader Freightliner recently offering the X15N option, is why we remain bullish. Trucking companies continue to engage with us as they evaluate the R&G solutions. Price still wins the day in the highly competitive logistics business. Fortunately, it is easy to get the fleet's attention when they are presented with up to a $2 a gallon savings on fuel. I'll end my remarks with a quick report about the progress we have made in our R&G development business. In the relatively short time since launching our dairy R&G production business, we now have six dairy projects operating with another large project in Texas in commissioning, and our largest project in Idaho completing an important pipeline extension and nearing mechanical completion. Both the Texas and Idaho projects are on schedule to begin producing RNG by the end of the year. Additionally, the dairy RNG projects that we are developing with Moss Energy have begun construction. Producing our own RNG allows us to capture a greater percentage of the overall value of the fuel, not only at the pump with environmental credits, but also through the monetization of the investment tax credit. We recently announced $29 million ITC sale in connection with four projects owned by our RNG joint venture with BP. Area RNG emission rates for the 45Z production tax credit are in the process of being finalized. We are pleased with the recognition of negative emission manure feedstock, RNG, in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. This legislation allows the US Treasury to recognize the full benefit of dairy RNG, which involves capturing carbon emissions from dairy cow manure and converting them into productive use as a negative emissions highway transportation fuel. Let me close with saying that we continue to feel very good about the way our businesses are performing. both the upstream and downstream, to put it in the old energy business vernacular. Fleets like transit agencies and waste companies that have been operating natural gas buses and trucks for decades are seeing a revitalization with the added environmental and financial benefits of migrating from CNG to RNG. And the relatively new market of heavy-duty trucking is slowly but surely starting to see the light. Clean Energy is well positioned to continue to lead the exciting RNG space with a growing portfolio of production facilities, the largest supply of RNG, the most expansive fueling network, and a talented group of people. And with that, I will hand the call back to Bob.

speaker
Robert Vreeland
Chief Financial Officer

Thank you, Andrew, and good afternoon to everyone. The second quarter of 2025 was another good quarter. We saw increases in revenues and RNG volumes compared to last year's second quarter. Also keep in mind the revenues last year included $6 million of alternative fuel tax credit revenue, which expired for 2025. Our second quarter RNG volumes grew 21% compared to our first quarter of 2025. Now this bounce back was anticipated. after the first quarter R&D production challenges due to unusually cold weather. Our operating cash generation in the second quarter of 2025 increased over last year and over our first quarter of 2025. As Andrew noted, we ended June with $241 million in cash and investments, which is up from $217 million that we had at the beginning of the year. It puts us in a very good place relative to our anticipated CapEx and other spend on our dairy projects. Looking at our net results, our gap net loss for the second quarter of 2025 was $20.2 million compared to $16.3 million a year ago. But the results of the 2024 benefited from the $6 million alternative fuel tax credit revenue, As well, the second quarter last year, if you recall, had two quarters of LCFS revenues, which was an extra $2.2 million that was in last year's second quarter. Adjusted EBITDA a year ago, second quarter was $18.9 million versus $17.5 million in 2025. But if you consider 2024, of course, had this $8.2 million of non-comparable income, you can see that 2025 has significantly improved over 2024. The improvement is principally the result of higher fuel volumes from both RNG and conventional natural gas, together with favorable pricing and cost mix in 2025 versus a year ago. In fact, the higher RNG volumes in 2025 compared to last year helped to mitigate much of the lower RIN pricing in 2025 versus a year ago. Looking at our trend from the first quarter of 2025, where adjusted EBITDA was $17.1 million versus our $17.5 in the second quarter, we did see very good benefits of the higher R&G volumes in the second quarter, with a 77% increase in RIN revenue. Our LCFS revenue, though, was lower in the second quarter, mainly due to a 20% drop in LCFS prices since the first quarter. And we saw a drop in our base fuel margins on normal fluctuating fuel pricing mix and commodity cost mix. The net of all that basically resulted in a relatively flat volume-related product margin between Q1 and Q2 of 2025. We did see improvements in our construction and service margins in the second quarter of 2025, which helped bring our second quarter results slightly above those of the first quarter. The RNG dairy front, the losses from our upstream dairy RNG projects were about the same in the second quarter compared to the first quarter. The losses at this stage reflect the fact that five of our six operating dairy projects are in ramp-up mode, plus we have operating expenses in Idaho that we've talked about before. Our dairy project in Del Rio, Texas is producing positive EBITDA and steadily increasing its RNG production. We were anticipating producing more RNG revenue at this stage from the five projects in ramp-up mode. And we are taking corrective action to address those five projects as they ramp up. And we feel confident about being able to increase our RNG production volumes at those locations, similar to what we did in Texas with Del Rio. Although we have tempered our 2025 outlook on the dairy projects based on where we are through June. Lastly, considering our results through June of 2025, we are raising our guidance for the full year 2025 for both our GAAP earnings and non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA. You can find details in our press release, but at high level, our GAAP guidance for 2025 is now for a net loss ranging from $217 million to $212 million. And our outlook for adjusted EBITDA for 2025 is now $60 million to $65 million. Our new guidance reflects the trends we've seen in our results thus far, with anticipation that these trends will largely continue, but with caution, recognizing there are ongoing uncertainties still in play, particularly for us around the timing of adoption of the X15 in, RIN and LCFS pricing, and the ongoing ramp-up in our dairy projects.

speaker
Robert Vreeland
Chief Financial Officer

That is my report. With that operator, we can open the call to questions.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Thank you. At this time, if you would like to ask a question, please press star 1 on your telephone keypad. If you would like to remove yourself from the queue, please press star 2. Once again, that is star 1 to ask a question. And our first question will come from Eric Stein with Craig Hellam. Please go ahead.

speaker
Eric Stein
Analyst, Craig-Hallum Capital Group

Hi, Andrea. Hi, Bob.

speaker
Andrew Littlefair
President and Chief Executive Officer

Hi, Eric.

speaker
Eric Stein
Analyst, Craig-Hallum Capital Group

Hey. So I guess I'll start maybe with the 45Z. Obviously great that it was included in the bill. And I know waiting on Treasury, you know, just curious kind of what your updated thoughts are on what that potentially looks could mean for you, you know, I guess in the near term if you apply it, well, I mean per gallon, but if you apply it to where your upstream is at now and, you know, maybe where you think it is two to three years from now.

speaker
Andrew Littlefair
President and Chief Executive Officer

You know, Eric, I'm not going to get into a, you know, kind of a guessing on how many dollars per gallon and all that kind of thing. But look, I think the bill was very strong, right? As you well know, it not only got included, it got strengthened and it got extended and specifically is enabled to recognize the negative carbon and instructs the Treasury Secretary to take into account the negative carbon. So, I mean, I feel very bullish about how that should impact. And I think you should get, you know, a very good carbon intensity score, which should end up being on, you know, the higher end of the way people have looked at this. So I think it should be meaningful for us going forward, but there's time, you know, there's still a lot of, a lot to work through, but I feel like we're well positioned because, because the legislation itself enables and recognizes it.

speaker
Eric Stein
Analyst, Craig-Hallum Capital Group

Right. Well, I guess I'm going to ask you to potentially guess again, but I mean, timing, I know that when you're looking at Treasury guidance, it can be very tricky to call that. But, I mean, is it something that you have any insight into or anything you're hearing?

speaker
Andrew Littlefair
President and Chief Executive Officer

Well, you know, Eric, it doesn't really kick into effect until January. So, you know, we're kind of back in that where, you know, there's a lot of things on Treasury's plate. I know they're working on this now, and I know other agencies and other departments that have input are engaged, so that's good. But I don't know that, you know, they're under a dead rush to get this done. They know that it doesn't really get put into play until January. So I'm guessing sometime in the fall, you know, you'll see it and It would just be a guess in October, November, something like that. It would probably get sorted out.

speaker
Eric Stein
Analyst, Craig-Hallum Capital Group

Right, right. No, I appreciate that. All right, maybe just turn into the X15N. Obviously, as you said, it's certainly not to where I think it had been envisioned a couple years ago or when things started for Cummins. But the one thing I've heard is just incremental cost as being a big deterrent for what Packard has had in the market for a year plus. Any thoughts or what you're hearing? I know it's early for Freightliner, but, you know, incremental cost, having another OEM in the market, what type of impact? Again, I know it's early, but just curious what you're hearing.

speaker
Andrew Littlefair
President and Chief Executive Officer

No, it's good. And, you know, we continue, our sales team continues to work with One of what I've said on a couple of calls is that for 2025, we wanted to see an increase in the breadth of the X15 and orders across the heavy-duty space. And I believe we're seeing that. What we've said, Eric, I think you and I have talked about, is Cummins felt strongly it's not about just some one big order with one fleet. You needed, in order to build a market, really needed to have acceptance across And I believe we're seeing that. And they're smaller numbers, but it's more breadth. The orders are taking place. Quotes for pricing is underway. You know, the Freightliner coming into the market has been very helpful. The incremental cost, I think, has been a little bit of a stumbling block in the early introduction, certainly at the end of last year and the first part of this year. But we've seen some of our channel partners and the industry really pull together. OEMs, Cummins, you know, ourselves and others have worked hard to bring the incremental price down. And that has happened. And so once upon a time when you'd see, you know, incremental pricing in the $100,000 or even greater range, you've now seen that come substantially down something closer to around $75,000. That's important, Eric, because it gets you to where with our advantageous fuel pricing, it can get you into that very important two-year type payback for the incremental cost. And that begins then to really sing for fleets. So, you know, the engines have performed beautifully. really the test and the early adopters, I mean, that has gone well. And now that we're able to get this incremental pricing down, I'm feeling much better about the way the introduction will go.

speaker
Robert Vreeland
Chief Financial Officer

Okay. Thanks a lot.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Thank you. Our next question will come from Rob Brown with Lake Street Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

speaker
Rob Brown
Analyst, Lake Street Capital Markets

Andrew and Bob. Hey, Rob. I want to dig in a little more on the ramp on the dairy projects that are ramping and the things you're doing. Could you give us some more color on kind of what you're doing and how long you think that can kind of take to ramp things up?

speaker
Robert Vreeland
Chief Financial Officer

I would say, and if you have some, I would say it's kind of normal, you know, after commissioning and placing these things into service, we are you know, kind of taking care of kind of normal, I would say normal type, uh, punch list items that, you know, are, I mean, they're expensive, but we know what's going on. And, um, I mean, they're very operational. So you're looking at, you know, manure flow and, and all the different, uh, equipment that's out there. Um, I think what the encouraging part for us is that there's nothing there that, um, you know, that we're seeing that indicates that there's a showstopper of any kind. I mean, we were able to get the, the Del Rio, Texas dairy up, but it takes some time. So, you know, you never know. Sometimes it's a quick fix and there you go. And, or it can take a little time, but so I think we'll be at it, you know, kind of going through this year on this ramp up and correcting them. And, but yeah, It shouldn't go much beyond. I mean, we should, you know, start hitting the ground running a bit more going into next year for sure.

speaker
Andrew Littlefair
President and Chief Executive Officer

You know, Eric, it's kind of hard to, all these different phases. Rob, I'm sorry. Rob, it's kind of hard, you know, all these different phases on these things. But I would sort of say, you know, when we often in business, or at least in our business, we used to think about commissioning as something that was very defined, right? It was like two weeks. to when we commission a fueling station, that's kind of how long it takes. And I would say here the commissioning is a little bit more varied. And it's more in the scheme of six months, you know, realistically, when by the time you bring them on and you start, you really debug and improve and enhance these dairies. And it's more on that order. So I think Bob's exactly right. Toward the end of this this year you'll be getting much, you know, much improved run rates. That's something much closer to nameplate, whereas right now, you know, you're just not there.

speaker
Robert Vreeland
Chief Financial Officer

But just to be clear, we are producing RG volume and, you know, monetizing what we can. So these are operating, and you just have to kind of deal with some of the nuances of, you know, I mean, it's biology, you know. So we know what we're up against there, but we have good team and good experience, and so it'll get there.

speaker
Robert Vreeland
Chief Financial Officer

It was just maybe a little slower than we anticipated. Okay, great.

speaker
Rob Brown
Analyst, Lake Street Capital Markets

Thank you. And then on the market demand, I think you talked a little bit about some regulatory clarity starting in the market, but could you just kind of update where that's at and maybe the the point at which customers get more clarity and comfort that they can make decisions.

speaker
Andrew Littlefair
President and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, and, you know, in my remarks, I don't want it to, you know, there are some macro issues here. It's not all about the introduction of, you know, cleaner trucks. You know, the trucking industry, the sales of new trucks in America is off significantly, right? And, you know, with tariffs and, you know, supply chain and inflation and concerns at the ports, I mean, we've really seen the trucking market has had a very tough year. And the acquisition of new equipment has been something, I don't know, it's been off 50%. Then you lay on top of it what's happened in California because of the regulations that which were requiring an electric truck in order to buy other trucks, that all but shut down the acquisition of new trucks in California. I mean, I think new truck sales in California are off something on the order of 75%. And now, as you know, as I speak, you're beginning to see more clarity. In California, the Trump administration, you know, got rid of the waivers or didn't approve the waivers on the ACT and the ACF fleet rule and that still we haven't seen total clarity yet on how that's all going to come to rest and what may happen in California but that's beginning to take care of itself. CARB's had a couple hearings and it's expected that there's gonna be some new recommendations to the governor of just how to sort out the clean truck fuels program in California. So I think here over the next couple months, we should get a little bit more clarity there and hopefully truck sales will begin to. And we also hope that low knock trucks will get a nod in that program as well, which would be very important for RNG going forward. But through all of this, What is heartening is that a lot of our trucking customers and shippers are still wanting, are still interested, still believe that they need to field sustainable equipment. And so that's good. And yet, I would say, you know, common sense and economics are prevailing right now. And so it's got to make economic sense. And And again, this is a little bit of good news for us, Rob, because we can price our fuel and get them savings on every mile traveled. So been a little slower on the adoption, but I think it has as much to do with sort of macro issues in the industry as it does specifically with the X-15N.

speaker
Unidentified Participant
Analyst

Okay, great. Thanks. Congratulations on all the progress. I'll turn it over. Thank you. Thank you, Rob.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Thank you. Our next question will come from Derek Whitfield with Texas Capital. Please go ahead.

speaker
Derek Whitfield
Analyst, Texas Capital

Good afternoon, guys, and thanks for taking my questions. Hi, Derek. I wanted to start on guidance first. Could you perhaps add some color around what's driving this re-rate and growth and success you're seeing and dispensing in your view? And then separately, to what degree has that been communicated in public comment in the public comment period for the Set 2 rule? Because that clearly has demand implications and we know when generation was quite strong in May and June. So, again, we'd love your thoughts on those topics.

speaker
Robert Vreeland
Chief Financial Officer

Yeah.

speaker
Robert Vreeland
Chief Financial Officer

Derek, I'll start on what we're seeing there. I mean, I think we're definitely seeing continued strong volume. It's been a little choppy because Q1 was a little off, but then we kind of came back and rebounded there in Q2. I think in general, we've also seen just a good mix of more vehicles within the, you know, kind of our pool of customers and whatnot, just more vehicles at our stations. And, you know, fueling volumes at our stations will drive economics. So you're getting, you know, kind of a better margin per gallon, if you will, which is we were cautious on that. There's a lot that can go into it between RINs and LCFS. as well as even the spread on oil to nat gas. And so far all of that put together, it hasn't all fired on all cylinders all the way. For example, this past quarter LCFS was down, but we had tremendous RIN volume and so that helped. But all of that has been collectively going in our favor. And while we still remain somewhat cautious, Basically, we do see that some underlying trend on that will continue. We don't see that kind of dropping off, you know, just between kind of oil and natural gas, even within the REN LCFS. We've already baked in. We kind of know that, you know, we see the trend there. So that's part of why we see this back half could be, you know, you could have a little headwind because the environmental crowds are down. So I know you were going on the second part of the question was, Well, this, you know, kind of better than expected in the demand, and then yet, you know, on the EPA, and I think you're going down to RVO, is like, you know, how is that not factored in, you know, to RVO? Because there's been comment out there that they didn't consider the

speaker
Andrew Littlefair
President and Chief Executive Officer

Well, you know, look, there's a comment period right now in the RVO. I think it is generally a little – the RVO is a little light. But let's not overemphasize this in our business. I mean, it's an important piece, but it's not the entire piece. And while I think they got it a bit light, you know, I've been at this a long time. We all have here. The EPA struggled yesterday. to come up with the right methodology on RVOs over discussion. So we're going to give them some of our insight on demand growth, X15 and growth, and the kinds of customers that we see that are interested. And who knows how that will go. But I feel like the RVO You know, it's somewhat constructive and it should keep the pricing in about this range, which is fine for our business.

speaker
Derek Whitfield
Analyst, Texas Capital

Yeah, it makes complete sense. And then maybe just focusing in on downstream, I wanted to ask for your thoughts on some of the recent dispensing transactions that have been announced with Trillium and Apollo. which are seemingly re-rating the value of downstream and also highlighted at the same time the growing disconnect between your stocks and the markets.

speaker
Robert Vreeland
Chief Financial Officer

Well, I don't know.

speaker
Andrew Littlefair
President and Chief Executive Officer

You're going to have to help me there on what you're seeing on that because I don't know that I have conclusions on that and on the pricing of that.

speaker
Derek Whitfield
Analyst, Texas Capital

What are you seeing there? Sure. We're seeing since COVID potential 2x increase in the value of downstream, which could put those assets on a near 10x multiple basis based on our math. When we look at kind of what's implied in your business today, very little value for or not that level of value recognition for the downstream.

speaker
Robert Vreeland
Chief Financial Officer

So that was kind of the comment and thought process behind that. Yeah, well, that would imply that we were, you know, undervalued.

speaker
spk05

Yeah.

speaker
Robert Vreeland
Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, I mean, I think in general, we like to see those kinds of transactions in the space that basically supports the valuation and a higher valuation for us. Why it doesn't translate to us is, you know, look, I still think – you know, actions speak louder than words and you still want to see, um, you know, significant X 15 in adoption and growth. And you see that in our numbers. So, you know, we're kind of set up for prime time on that. Um, we're also a bit larger.

speaker
Andrew Littlefair
President and Chief Executive Officer

I mean, I guess it's sort of validated. I've long believed, in fact, we've talked to some significant players in the business. I mean, in order to replicate our downstream, it would be $2 billion, $2.5 billion to do it today and a decade. So we're well positioned with a network that would be, and I happen to be, you know, I'm an optimist, but I happen to believe that over time, You know, the experience, one of the reasons we're doing well right now is we have, our Amazon stations are doing well, right? We've proved out that large deployments of trucks, it can work and that RNG can work well. And so we have lots of unutilized capacity at our downstream that's super well positioned. You know, we have these truck stops up and down every, interstate system in the nation. And so as this demand begins to develop, we get a disproportionate amount of downstream. Today, most markets, we're about 50% or 60% of the market share. So that's why we work so hard on the demand side of this equation. And now that we have the right product, the X-15N, we've got the right All the largest fleets in America are testing or buying some of these X-15s. Now, we need them to do it in greater numbers, of course, but I like to where we're headed.

speaker
Robert Vreeland
Chief Financial Officer

Great, Keller. Thanks, guys.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Thank you. Our next question will come from Manav Gupta with AUBS. Please go ahead.

speaker
Manav Gupta
Analyst, UBS

Congrats, guys. Excellent result and a raise of the guide. I just wondered your outlook on the LCFS price. You did mention, you know, our view was a little light. I agree, it's a little light for you on the D3 side, but the LCFS developments are positive, and I'm just trying to understand how are you thinking about the LCFS prices, you know, exiting 2025?

speaker
Andrew Littlefair
President and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, Manav, I think it's good because we haven't talked about that enough. I think that the new rules for the LCFS and the new finally, that those got into place, that should be constructive over time. We'll begin to work over the oversupply in the bank. And it doesn't happen overnight, as you know, but it'll be the case that it's beginning already. And you'll have a firming price throughout the remainder of this year and into next year, and it'll continue to go up. So I like where the LCFS is headed.

speaker
Manav Gupta
Analyst, UBS

Perfect. Thank you. That's what we were hoping for. And then, you know, the investment tax credits are a big benefit. You can monetize them. Given your capex spend and other things, how should we think about, you know, the benefit of this into next year? Like what could be a good number? I know it's a little bit of a guess, but what could be a good number for investment tax credits that you could monetize if you're thinking about next year or even the second half of this year?

speaker
Robert Vreeland
Chief Financial Officer

Well, let's see. Okay.

speaker
Robert Vreeland
Chief Financial Officer

So we've, we've monetized the investment tax credit on, on all of our projects that have been placed into operations. And really that money is being utilized in the JV, right? So it's, it's so we've seen that. So what we, have really are a couple projects under construction. There's a big one in Idaho, one in South Forest, Texas, and then we have our Moss Energy deals. And all of those, I don't want to speculate on what that would be. I mean, the dollars involved are pretty large. particularly in Idaho and others. But I guess generally how we're viewing that is that it, you know, it provides us a nice inflow of capital to take down our, you know, kind of net capital outlay on those.

speaker
Robert Vreeland
Chief Financial Officer

And, you know, so it helps the return, if you will. Thank you. We kind of use it. Yeah.

speaker
Manav Gupta
Analyst, UBS

No, thank you. That's very clear. As long as you're basically clarifying that there are large investments, particularly associated with Idaho project, eventually we'll be able to get back in the cash stream. Thank you so much for the response.

speaker
Andrew Littlefair
President and Chief Executive Officer

I guess the other thing is on one of those, we own 100%, right?

speaker
Robert Vreeland
Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, the one in Texas, we own 100%.

speaker
Robert Vreeland
Chief Financial Officer

So we're not spoiling the ITC or the partner on that one. We get all of that. All right.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Thank you. Our next question will come from Matthew Blair with TPH. Please go ahead.

speaker
Matthew Blair
Analyst, TPH

Thank you, and good afternoon. Are you seeing signs of incremental tightness in the downstream CNP refueling market? And if so, are there any examples you can share? So, for example, when you recontract an existing fleet, is that coming in at a higher rate due to incremental tightness and I guess the reason I ask is because your baseline fueling margin, excluding the RIN and LCFS credit revenue, really seems to have taken a step up here. And so we're just trying to get a better understanding of why that is.

speaker
Unidentified Participant
Analyst

Thank you.

speaker
Robert Vreeland
Chief Financial Officer

I don't know that we're seeing a tightening there. I think you're seeing – well, I mean, you're seeing – I mean, you're just seeing kind of more fueling. What impacts that base margin is the volume at our stations, and as we grow our customers that are just kind of pure trucking, fueling at our stations. I mean, as an example, our Amazon stations are purpose-built. They haven't been, you know, they haven't been fully there for, you know, this year, of course, and maybe most of last year. But as, you know, we continue to, you know, our fleets continue to grow. Our customer fleets continue to grow. And so the shift is really toward, you know, kind of fuel volumes and fueling at our stations.

speaker
Robert Vreeland
Chief Financial Officer

And so you're starting, that is what drives that base margin, you know,

speaker
Robert Vreeland
Chief Financial Officer

you know, and as well, just the, the spread, you know, kind of oil to nat gas has been, has been good. And, and, you know, we make money at this, you know, with volume, you do, you do make some money. Um, certainly there's margin there with that spread. I mean, the spread, I think I looked again today was, you know, 21, um, you know, kind of WTI to, to NYMEX. So, um, That's kind of it. Matthew, there's not any complicated deal.

speaker
Robert Vreeland
Chief Financial Officer

It's just a mix of fuel volume at our stations.

speaker
Matthew Blair
Analyst, TPH

Sounds good. And then congrats on raising the guide. I think even at the top end of the guide, it would imply that the back half of the year would be a little bit softer than the first half. Could you help us understand the moving parts there? Is that That's just a function of trying to be a little cautious given lower RIN prices or is there some seasonality at play?

speaker
Robert Vreeland
Chief Financial Officer

What would determine that? Just general caution.

speaker
Robert Vreeland
Chief Financial Officer

Like I said in my comments, vehicle adoption, what's going out there, the vehicles in terms of what's being purchased, all of that. In LCFS, there's volatility there. We're ramping up those. You know, our base underlying, as we were just talking about, kind of the base underlying and fueling and that, those are the trends that we kind of largely said, you know, you would see those continue.

speaker
Unidentified Participant
Analyst

But there's other, you know, just caution there. Yeah. Great. Thank you.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Thank you. Our next question will come from Patty Zhang with Scotiabank. Please go ahead.

speaker
Patty Zhang
Analyst, Scotiabank

Hello, thank you. I wanted to ask... Hi. So in the updated guidance, I noticed that the expected Amazon warrant charges for the year is higher. Does this reflect more fueling demand from Amazon? And are you seeing similarly more interest in demand from other trucking customers?

speaker
Robert Vreeland
Chief Financial Officer

Betty, it does. From what was in the previous guidance, that's correct. Now, are we seeing other, yes, as we expand?

speaker
Robert Vreeland
Chief Financial Officer

Yes, we are, but, you know, not the silver bullet. I mean, look, we're, you know, the X-15N is still a bit of a question, so...

speaker
Andrew Littlefair
President and Chief Executive Officer

No, but I think, Betty, you've got it right. You've figured out what you're looking at there on Amazon, so that binds up. And the guidance also expects that there will be increased volume from trucking. I'd like a lot more, you know, and we hope that'll be the case. But, you know, I think that's kind of where we're being a little cautious. But, yes, you're seeing the increase.

speaker
Patty Zhang
Analyst, Scotiabank

Got it. Makes sense. And then I was wondering if you could just provide an update on your RNG projects under construction?

speaker
Andrew Littlefair
President and Chief Executive Officer

Well, as we said on, you know, kind of went over pretty fast, but, you know, six projects are completed, right? And they're in kind of the debugging stage we talked about. And Betty, I don't know if you were on that part of the call, but, you know, they're They're in the ramp-up phase, and that commissioning, I'd sort of say that feels like that could take six months rather than it's not all done in two weeks. Okay, so those are in play. We have an expectation that they'll be sort of on a similar track to what we saw with Del Rio, which has done very well. The next two big projects that we have under construction, we're really feeling good about South Fork, Texas dairy, you know, that's 100% owned by us. And that's really gone, I think, very well to this point, right? It's kind of been on time and on budget. We're in the commissioning stage. We've actually loaded manure into those tanks. You know, there's a lot more to be done there, but that one's coming along nicely. And then our final, our large project, a really big project in Idaho is We've had some substantial milestone completions there. We completed the 11-mile pipeline. We are testing and filling up some of the big digesters. It's a very impressive project there. And so that will soon go into more formal commissioning. And we expect both those projects to be kind of on the beginning of production. the latter part of this year. So we feel good about that. And then we have three moss projects at six dairies, let's call it. That was six dairies that have really three projects. Those are all under construction. Just beginning, you know, but those are all underway.

speaker
Unidentified Participant
Analyst

That's kind of where we stand right now. Perfect. Thank you.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Thank you. And at this time, we have no further questions in the queue, so I'd like to turn the call back over to Andrew Littlefair for any additional or closing remarks.

speaker
Andrew Littlefair
President and Chief Executive Officer

Thank you. Thank you, Operator, and thank you, everyone, for joining us today, and we look forward to filling you in next quarter. Have a good day.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This concludes today's presentation, and we appreciate your participation. You may disconnect at any time.

Disclaimer

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