EarningsCall · COHU Q4 2022

spk14: Good day and thank you for standing by. Welcome to CoHUE's fourth quarter and full year 2022 financial results conference call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speaker's presentation, there will be a question and answer session. To ask a question during the session, you'll need to press star 1 1 on your telephone. You will then hear an automated message advising your hand is raised. To withdraw your question, please press star 1 1 again. please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Jeff Jims, Chief Financial Officer.

spk08: Good afternoon and welcome to our conference call to discuss CoHUE's fourth quarter 2022 results and first quarter 2023 outlook. I'm joined today by our President and CEO, Luis Mueller. If you need a copy of our earnings release, you may access it from our website at CoHUE.com or by contacting CoHUE Investor Relations. There's also a slide presentation in conjunction with today's call that may be accessed on CoHUE's website in the Investor Relations section. Replays of this call will be available via the same page after the call concludes. Now to the safe harbor. During today's call, we will make forward-looking statements reflecting management's current expectations concerning CoHUE's future business. These statements are based on current information that we have assessed, but which, by its nature, is subject to rapid and even abrupt changes. We encourage you to review the forward-looking statement section of the slide presentation and the earnings release, as well as CoHUE's filings with the SEC, including the most recently filed Form 10-K and Form 10-Q. Our comments speak only as of today, February 16, 2023, and COHU assumes no obligation to update these statements for developments occurring after this call. Finally, during this call, we will discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures. Please refer to our earnings release and slide presentation for reconciliations to the most comparable GAAP measures. Now I'd like to turn the call over to Louise Mueller, COHU's President and CEO.

spk09: Luis? Good afternoon, and thanks for joining us. I'll go straight to the key points and let you ask questions at the end. Q4 was an outstanding quarter in terms of financial metrics, albeit your typical seasonally slow revenue at year end. Revenue of $191.1 million was about flat year over year, with a strong non-GAAP EPS result. More importantly, we continued to make great progress managing costs growing Cohue's recurring business, and selling differentiated products. Fourth quarter non-gap gross margin of 48.8% is a Cohue record, reflects 470 basis points growth year over year, and it's better than our target financial model at this revenue level. Gross margin benefited from steady growth of Cohue's recurring revenue, where we achieved a three-year compound annual growth rate of 5.2% through Q4, and represented approximately 45% of fourth quarter revenue with 55% non-GAAP gross margin. In the last four quarters, recurring revenue was $338 million, delivering a very profitable and resilient revenue stream through industry cycles. Our recurring business is primarily made up of test interface hardware and device application kits that are IC design driven and benefit from the introduction of new semiconductor products by our customers. CoHue's test interface annual revenue grew over 9% year-over-year, demonstrating the value differentiation of our solutions when integrated with our testers and handlers. We also established a strategic collaboration agreement in the fourth quarter with CHPT in Taiwan to deliver advanced probe card interface to customers. Under this new collaboration, We plan to accelerate the proliferation of products addressing 5G and advanced node technologies with cost-efficient interface solutions, leveraging the strength of both companies. CHPT intends to contribute with PCB and MEMS probe technology, while Cohu intends to integrate core high-frequency RF and thermal management capabilities. The balance, or approximately 45% of our recurring revenue over the last 12 months, comes from service revenue generated from an install base that just further expanded with the acquisition of MCT to over 24,100 actively supported systems at customer sites. Part of our service offer includes a DI core data analytics platform. We recently announced that a European IDM customer selected and started deployment of CoHue's predictive maintenance software. This is our first software subscription sale and a major accomplishment for us. This is part of a suite of data analytics products sold under the DI Core brand to deliver improved productivity to our customers. DI Core is a key element of Kohu's midterm strategy to increase value services and grow software revenue to between 15 and 25 million in a few years. Tampering these positives is test cell utilization that we now estimate down three points quarter over quarter to about 79%, reflecting known ongoing softness in mobility, consumer, and competing end markets. Cohuse systems business was 55% of total fourth quarter revenue with 44% non-GAAP gross margin. System revenue distribution in the quarter was notably stronger in automotive and industrial end markets that we have been seeing remain more resilient through this down cycle. Turning to our semi-test business, annual revenue was about flat year over year, but with a significant diversification out of the mobility segment that was particularly weak in 2022. Our analog and fire management sales grew to about 32% of semi-test business, mostly serving automotive and industrial end markets. The display driver grew from a single-digit percent of revenue in 2021 to approximately 16% of the total semi-task revenue in 2022. We've had a remarkable year in pivoting revenue to new applications and customer design wins that help build a more sustainable path forward, predominantly with the DiamondX platform. On the handler business, we had five customer design wins in the fourth quarter with our thermal handler. three of which penetrated unserved production sites of existing customer names. We delivered two new systems for silicon carbide semiconductor tests and inspection in the fourth quarter. We've projected expansion into this customer's new back-end test operation and test subcontractor throughout 2023. Now turning to our recently announced MCT acquisition, we're integrating the business within our test handler unit. MCT brings critical technologies that will help accelerate a product development roadmap to address growing opportunities in advanced packaging panel tests. This acquisition also adds a couple of products to Cohue's portfolio and a small revenue stream with gross margins in line with our target financial model. It's a relatively simple business to integrate within Cohue, with neutral EPS impact projected for this year, and expect it to be accretive after realizing operating synergies. As demonstrated, we have made significant progress toward building a resilient business model that is well suited to weather the cyclicality of semiconductor capital equipment spending. We're very well positioned to continue delivering strong profitability and cash flows quarter over quarter. The main focus now is on growth. and ensuring our investments and product roadmaps are aligned to secular growth market opportunities. We're also driving hard to deliver wins on the DiamondX test platform, expand our inspection and metrology business, and continue expansion of our interface products and DI core software. Let me now turn this presentation over to Jeff for additional details on fourth quarter results and first quarter 2023 guidance. Jeff?

spk08: Thanks, Luis. Before I walk through the Q4 results and Q1 guidance, please note that my comments that follow all refer to non-GAAP figures. Information about the non-GAAP financial measures, including the GAAP to non-GAAP reconciliations and other disclosures, are included in the accompanying earnings release and investor presentation, which are located on the investor page of our website. Now, turning to the financial results. COHU again delivered strong revenue and profitability in the quarter. Q4 revenue was $191.1 million and slightly higher than midpoint of our guidance range. Total revenue for full year 2022 was $812.8 million. During the fourth quarter, one customer in the automotive market accounted for more than 10% of sales. For full year 2022, no customer accounted for more than 10% of sales. Gross margin in Q4 set a new record for CoHUE at 48.8%, about 180 basis points higher than guidance driven by CoHUE's recurring business and differentiated products. Headwinds from cost increases for IC components used on our tester products impacted our gross margin in Q4 by approximately 37 basis points. We expect these challenges to persist at reduced levels into mid-2023 as we increase sourcing directly with semiconductor manufacturers and component availability improves. Full-year 2022 gross margin also set a new record for COHU at 47.2%, which is a 360 basis point improvement year-over-year and tracking to our mid-term target of 49%. The headwinds from cost increases for IC components impacted full-year 2022 gross margin by approximately 100 basis points. Operating expenses for Q4 were in line with guidance at $52.4 million. Full-year 2022 operating expenses were approximately 25.6% of revenue and also tracking to our midterm target. Fourth quarter non-GAAP operating income was 21.4% of revenue and adjusted EBITDA was 22.2%. Full year operating income was 21.6%, higher than 2021 by 110 basis points. And adjusted EBITDA for 2022 was 23.7%, higher than 2021 by 150 basis points. The non-GAAP effective tax rate for Q4 was approximately 16% and lower than guidance due to a shift of projected annual pre-tax income from higher tax rate jurisdictions to lower tax rate jurisdictions. The non-GAAP effective tax rate for full year 2022 was approximately 20%. Non-GAAP EPS for the fourth quarter was 70 cents. The full year 2022 EPS was $2.91. In summary, Q4 profitability was strong as gross margin and adjusted EBITDA continued to expand toward the midterm financial target. Now moving to the balance sheet, Q4 cash flow from operations was strong at $27.6 million. Net of share repurchases totaling $12.6 million, debt repayment of $1 million, capital additions of about $4 million, and other changes in working capital Cash and investments increased quarter over quarter by $17 million to $386 million at the end of Q4. Overall, Cohue's balance sheet maintains a strong position to support debt reduction, the share repurchase program, and investment opportunities to expand our served markets and technology portfolio in line with our growth strategy. Now moving to our Q1 outlook. for guiding Q1 revenue to be between $173 million and $187 million. Q1 gross margin is forecasted to be approximately 47.5%, better than the financial target model, and down 130 basis points quarter over quarter due to lower sales volume and mix. The IC cost component headwinds in the tester business I mentioned earlier will persist and we're projecting the Q1 impact to be approximately 30 basis points. With a three-year compound annual growth rate of 5.2%, CoHUE's high margin recurring business provides consistent cash flow through industry cycles. Operating expenses for Q1 are projected to be approximately 53 million, essentially flat quarter over quarter. We're projecting Q1 interest expense to be approximately 1 million, and offset by interest income of approximately $1 million. We expect Q1 adjusted EBITDA at the midpoint of guidance to be approximately 20%. The Q1 and full year 2023 forecasted non-GAAP tax rate is approximately 20% at the midpoint of guidance. The diluted share count for Q1 is expected to be approximately 48 million shares. And that concludes our prepared remarks. Now we'll open the call to questions.

spk16: As a reminder, to ask a question, please press star 1-1 on your telephone. Our first question comes from the line of Craig Ellis with B. Riley.

spk14: Craig, your line is now open.

spk07: Yeah, thanks for taking the question, and guys, congratulations on the very strong execution. I wanted to start with a follow-up on gross margins, so great to see that both recurring and systems had a 100 basis point gross margin increase in the quarter. Can you just talk about how much further upside there is from here on each side of the business? And how should we think about your view of where the target should be given that you're getting so close to that 49% model? Hey, Craig, this is Jeff.

spk08: And thank you. Yeah, so we're still on the path to that 49% gross margin for the full year. We have more contact or insourcing to do in the Philippines with additional revenue growth and contactors as well as testers that will improve the overall gross margin as well as growth and inspection metrology as well as our data analytics software. So we're still on that path, and we expect to achieve that 49% within the midterm.

spk07: Okay, got it. And I'll follow up with a question on backlog and just the level of visibility. So in quarters past, you've often provided some color on what you think the business is capable of. in the out quarter. So as you look at 2Q, can you talk about some of the gives and takes? And I think in the past you talked about the potential for business to rise half on half in the back half of the year. How do you think about prospects for the second half from what you can see today?

spk08: Yeah, let me talk a little bit about the backlog here. You know, with extended lead times, we're seeing where typically we'd see 80% plus of the backlog consumed in two quarters. We're seeing that elongated a little bit here, Craig. So we're looking at Q1. We've got a strong amount of backlog for Q1 shipments. But then it does also shift into Q2 and Q3. So we're about 50% of backlog rolling into Q3. Q1 shipments represent about 50% of the backlog, so strong. And then that schedules out all the way through the end of the year, really. So that's a result of extended lead times.

spk09: Yeah, let me add here. I think you're also asking about the second half of the year, right? The way we're seeing this now, Craig, we're expecting the first half to be soft. And I think that's pretty obvious now due to inventory correction in consumer mobility, PC and servers. We tend to agree with statements made recently here by TSMC, also Teradyne, that predicted that Q2 is likely to trough in this cycle. And honestly, considering our system's lead times today, which for handlers are about 24 weeks on average and testers about 12 weeks, we expect that there will be a slow climb from the bottom through the second half of the year. So it's difficult to predict the last quarter of the year, like all the way out to Q4, which is typically seasonally down. But it can be also opposite as we're heading into a stronger 2024, but that would be truly dependent on the shape of the recovery. So put it all together, we think for the full year, this could be down approximately 10% to 15% year over year. And that's could be better off on the better off side, depending if we can manage to shorten system lead times to address growing orders, and also sort of the recovery profile after we pass the trough. So we'll figure that out, but that's about the best view at the moment for the year.

spk07: Got it. That's real helpful, guys. And to just understand that a little bit better, Luis, As you look at backlog, does backlog suggest that the mix of business in the second half would be somewhat similar to the first half, or does it suggest that there would be more of an assumption in mobility and compute?

spk08: No, we really don't get that kind of visibility out of the backlog three or four quarters from now, Craig. So I just think it's too premature to tell based on backlog.

spk07: Yep. Okay. Fair enough. And if I could just ask one more as a last question. Can you just talk a little bit about the probe card initiative, the partnership? When do you expect material revenues from that? And is there any incremental R&D or other investment that you need to make with your partner as you pursue that opportunity?

spk09: So starting from the end, no. The investments in R&D, are going to stay at the levels that they are now on our interface business. And that partnership is, at this stage, we discussed the mutual collaboration, what they intend to provide, what we intend to provide. We're taking that out to customers, gaining some interest at the moment. I think that's going to lead to some evaluations and opportunities that, quite honestly, I would expect to be material in 2024. Less so this year. More initial applications in the lab is that what we're seeing at the moment. But real volume production, I would expect in 2024.

spk07: Got it. Look forward to seeing that. And congratulations again on the great press margin, guys. Nice work.

spk15: Thanks, Greg.

spk16: Our next question comes from the line of Brian Chin with Stiefel.

spk06: Hi there. Good afternoon, and thanks for letting us ask a few questions, and congratulations on the strong results. Maybe, Luis, one question to lead off here. Yeah, I think you said 79% test cell utilization, Q4. It sounds something like 800 basis points year over year, and yet your revenue is essentially flat year to year, even though monitoring some in the March quarter outlook does seem a lot more resilient than past cycles. So I'm wondering, from your perspective, What are really the main drivers that account for this revenue resilience? I'd imagine share gains and increased service offerings are part of it, but I'd love to hear your perspective on that.

spk09: Yeah, good question, Brian. It really comes out of two main threads of business wins here. One is on the interface side. I commented that our revenue resilience for the interface businesses up 9% year over year, despite, as you said, utilization being down. So there has been a number of design wins for our contactors. And frankly, we also sold a number of probe cards, still small in the grand scheme of things, but a number of probe cards in 2022. So net-net, an increase in the interface business, which was a key driver of increase in the overall recurring business. Secondly, on the tester business side, I made a comment that our revenue was essentially flat year over year. Again, with the backdrop of a test cell utilization coming down. But that tester business has been a big story of pivoting to win new customers outside of mobility. I guess some in mobility still, but a lot outside of mobility and significantly increasing the fraction of that revenue that's in the analog and power IC test, which we grew to about 32% of the semi-test business last year. So kind of that diversification push that we've been doing predominantly with the Di1X platform, yielding results and sort of bucking that trend of test fertilization going down. Great.

spk06: That's helpful. And then just working through, I think, a question that was just asked a few minutes ago in terms of your commentary on the year. I know you're not giving precise guidance there, but based on the first quarter guide, it sounds like second quarter maybe goes down a little bit, something like mid-single digits plus. And then you have some recovery off of that in the back half of the year, maybe kind of mid-single digits, low to mid-single digits, something around that. One, is that sort of without giving guidance, is that kind of a framework to use? And then two, in terms of all the mechanics and moving pieces, is this a function of trying to gauge the moderation that you're seeing per your presentation in terms of auto and industrial, kind of what that recovery looks like for handsets and phones? Are these kind of the key mechanics here that you're looking at?

spk09: Yeah, I think you hit it all pretty well, pretty accurately there. to as extent as you can be accurate on a forecast. But that's exactly the logic. You described it pretty well. There is some moderation, particularly in industrial right now. We expect, we've seen already in Q4 some moderation in automotive. Don't expect it to be dramatically different going forward. And at some point, more of a recovery in the mobility of the handset, but nothing dramatic. And then you factor that in the lead times that I described, right? And there's only so much you can actually do within this year, considering the backlog and the lead times we have. So, yes, it's kind of looking at a, you know, progressively down to a trough in Q2 and then in a, you know, slow progression recovery on the second half of the year. Now, if we do see demand increasing dramatically, we'll certainly work through reduce further the lead time or increase manufacturing capacity to address that. But I think The parameters you described are pretty much the way we're seeing the evolution of this year.

spk06: Okay, thanks. Maybe one last one for Jeff. Maybe this factored into some of the gross margin upside in Q4, but test contractors, you had sort of an improvement plan sort of mid-40s on the year, and I think upper 40s maybe by sort of mid this year. Are you on track or ahead of schedule there? And then just kind of more holistically – It might be sort of favorable events that kind of really took the gross margins towards 49% this last quarter, but that's at a sub-$800 million annualized revenue level. At the $1 billion level into the future, is it time to put maybe a 50% number on that instead of 49%?

spk08: We've had that conversation, Brian. I think we're going to hold off for now. We need to string together three, four – full quarters here at 48, 49% gross margin before we, I think before we can jump into that 50%. But Q4 obviously was a fantastic quarter for gross margin. As I said, we had a headwind of about 37 basis points. So that 48.8 is net of that. We had strong recurring revenue in the quarter. It was 45% of total revenue. So it was very strong. In addition to that, we had a A good mix, particularly in the tester business unit. So just a really strong quarter. I'd say mix-related, but all the business units have really improved in terms of gross margin. Handlers, mid-40%. Contactors, mid-40%. And then testers are where you'd expect them to be in sort of the high 50s.

spk15: Okay, great. Thank you.

spk16: Our next question comes from the line of David Dooley with Steelhead Securities.

spk05: Yeah, thanks for taking my question. So I was curious if you could just elaborate a little bit more. You mentioned this pivot in your test business towards analog and power IC applications. Could you just talk a little bit about how you were able to accomplish that with the Diamond X and what some of the major win, you know, in markets that are serving these WINS. And then would you expect the percentage of the semi-test business in these power and analog pieces to be greater than 32% going forward?

spk09: Hi, Dave. Yeah, good question. Well, not all of it was outside of mobility, right? We talked about WINS in the DDIC, for example, display driver IC testing. earlier last year, and that was actually M-OLED and mobility related. But we also talked about WINS and automotive power, microcontroller, RFIOT again. You know, to put a little bit different perspective in more by end market, right, I have some data here by end market. The full year result was about, just for the semi-test business, right, the full-year revenue profile, was about 33% mobility, 25% auto and industrial, 14% computing. And that's for systems only, right? I mean, there's another 16% or so that was recurring and related for semi-test. Where do we expect that to be in the future? I mean, certainly the areas that we're pushing at right now are more related to analog and power semiconductors spread across automotive, industrial, and computing applications. So naturally, I would expect that to increase because that's our area of focus. Concurrently, though, obviously, if the mobility market starts to recover, we'll see a natural shift of percentage of revenue back into mobility out of our semi-test business. So it's here really a matter of how What's the timing of our new wins in automotive industrial computing relative to the recovery timing of mobility? So I can't tell you that necessarily one or the other is going to outrun. And quarter to quarter, you see some fluctuations on that. But all things being equal, as of today, yes, I would expect more growth outside of mobility. That's our focus area.

spk05: OK. I think you kind of rounded out your expectations for the market or for your company, perhaps down 10% or 15% for calendar 2023. I think on the last conference call, you might have been talking, let's say, down 5% or 10%. So you have lowered the expectation a bit. However, I think one of your larger backing competitors is talking about the business being down perhaps 20% next year. know and at the lower end of your range you know down 10 you obviously doubled the performance or be significantly better than their performance i'm wondering what you think the key reasons are that you might outperform the overall market and perhaps the large competitor there well i you know without knowing exactly who they are it's hard to compare but we do have um okay

spk09: We do have a substantial recurring business, right? We talk about this every quarter. It's approximately 45% of our revenue. It's a higher percentage of our combined gross margin, right, about 55% in Q4. It is extremely resilient, and if anything, it has grown last year despite the fact that test serialization has gone down as we have managed to grow our interface, contact our business. And frankly, we have also increased the number of customers that sign up to service contracts with us. And in a much smaller scale, have increased the revenue of that software product line, the DI core. So that is a significant difference relative to many of our peers in the industry, right? I'm not gonna say all because I can't speak to everyone, but many of our peers in the industry that resilient, high-margin recurring business. It's quite unique, right? And some people out there talk about their business being entirely consumables, and then they have this incredible fluctuation in revenue of 20% quarter over quarter. That's not what we call recurring, right? Our recurring, we'll see a 3% fluctuation quarter over quarter. If anything, that fluctuation has been up quarter over quarter over the last four quarters, despite test utilization being down. So it's a true recurring nature business and not just a marketing flair to be used for investor benefit, right? It's a true value, I think, that creates a differentiation that I think answers your question to the core of it.

spk05: Okay, great. One final question for me is in your presentation, you talk about the gross margins in both pieces, your business recurring being 55% and systems being 44%. When we think about margins improving throughout the year, as you suggested, back up above 49% by the end of the year, will it come from recurring or will it come from systems? That's the first part. And then the second part is, you know, as far as systems goes, margins go, can you foresee that 44% getting to, let's say, upper 40s, you know, in the next year or two?

spk08: Hey, Dave. So your last question, yes. Driven by growth in the tester systems business. And the recurring will also grow as we continue to grow the contact or the interface business. And that business is a combination of revenue growth, which also supports better leverage of our infrastructure, driving higher margins, as well as complementing the more of the insourcing in the Philippines. So it's all of that, to be honest with you.

spk15: Thank you.

spk16: Our next question comes from the line of Krish Sankar with Cowan & Company.

spk03: Hi, thanks for taking my questions. This is Stephen calling on behalf of Krish. Luis, if I could, I wanted to ask a couple follow-up questions on the recurring revenue business, as you just described. So if, I guess, as you discussed, like, despite the decline in utilization rates for some of your tools, but then yet your recurring revenues are still very resilient, is the right way to think about that in that you guys are gaining share in the market and, hence, and hence able to keep that recurring revenue relatively flattish or just, you know, decline slightly? Or is there a different dynamic at play in terms of, you know, lower utilization rates allow your customers to actually take advantage of your service contracts? Or if you could explain that some more at the rate.

spk09: Yeah. Yeah, Stephen. First of all, recurring revenue will fluctuate a little bit with test cell utilization, right? And But I really have to underline that a little bit. It will go up and down, like I said, about 3 percentage points with test serialization fluctuation, but a small fluctuation. So when test serialization does go down, typically you see the recurring revenue go down alongside with it. In this case, he went the opposite direction, and it's not because a customer is taking advantage of anything. It's really because of that increased share penetration of our test interface, our contactor business, and I think an outstanding job by our service manager, business manager, sort of increasing the retention rate of customers through contracts and displacement of customers In some cases, third-party suppliers, third-party providers, and just getting that business back to a OEM-supplied spares, right, and even kits. So that has been a positive both on the service side of the business as well as in the contactor side of the business that offset the reduction in test cell utilization over the last four quarters.

spk03: Okay, great. And then the other, I guess, smaller component of the recurring revenue you wanted to ask about is the more software subscription product that you described earlier today. I guess for that newer product or service, is that more of a monthly or annual type term for those types of contracts? And relative to your existing installed base, which part of the test cell install base do you expect to see strong adoption rates from?

spk09: Yeah, it is this new product, PDM, predictive maintenance. It's an analytics solution that adds on to the Insight platform that we're selling through last year. So we introduced PDM here in the fourth quarter as a subscription sale. It's an annual renewal rate. It provides the analytics so that you can improve your overall equipment efficiency or utilization of your cells. It's all part of the DI Core umbrella, so it's all part of the plan that we have had to increase revenue in that area. Like I said, we said in the past, it's about a $1 million revenue stream last year. Obviously, significant growth year over year because it came off from a few hundred thousand in 2021. We see an opportunity here in aggregate to get to about $25, $30, $35 million in revenue over the years in this software space on sort of addressing our installed base of equipment. For starters, we're really working on our test handlers. These are the electromechanical systems. These are the ones that demand more maintenance, more repair over time. and the ones that you can have a greater opportunity to impair optimization of OEE for our customers. So that's where the real value is.

spk15: Okay, great. Thank you so much.

spk16: Our next question comes from the line of Trevor Janowski with Needham.

spk02: Yeah, hi, guys. This is Trevor on for Quinn. Thanks for letting me hop on. So last May at the analyst day, you changed the timeframe of the target model from three to five years to 2024. But the new January investor presentation shows three to five years again. And given the macro, this is very understandable, of course. But I just wanted to double check if you're reverting back to that timeframe. And if that's the case, it seems likely that gross margins could be 50 plus. Is that the right way of thinking about it?

spk08: Yeah, that's right, Trevor. And that's possible, 50 plus, but we'll intercept it, you know, likely beforehand or when the 49% is achieved so that we can reset the targets. We're not going to wait for some time to elapse. It's a matter of when we achieve it, then we'll set the bar higher.

spk02: Okay. Thank you. Makes sense. And so you spoke about shipping to silicon carbide systems to a customer. Did any new silicon carbide opportunities come about in the fourth quarter?

spk09: No, we talked about it in the third quarter about the same opportunity. And, you know, we're talking about the same thing we did a quarter ago.

spk02: Okay. Okay. And can you remind us or able to quantify what that opportunity is or percentage of current revenue to give us an idea?

spk09: We think that singular customer opportunity can be about $30 million spread over two years. And we're still trying to see how much of that's going to materialize this year versus next year. But it is ramping. It's starting to ramp.

spk02: Okay, thank you. And sorry if I missed this point, but last quarter you gave an estimate that test and inspection market could be down mid-single digits in 2023. Has this figure changed at all?

spk09: No, still the same view. You know, we view the market as a whole was probably on the order of $500 million, or at least the portion of the market that we we expect to serve, and we think that could be going down to about $450 million in 2023. Okay, perfect.

spk17: Thank you.

spk14: That concludes today's question and answer session. I'd like to turn the call back to Jeff Jones for closing remarks.

spk08: Okay, so before we sign off, I just want to thank everybody for joining today's call. Have a nice day, and we'll talk to you soon.

spk14: This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

spk12: The conference will begin shortly. To raise and lower your hand during Q&A, you can dial star 1 1. you Bye. Thank you. Thank you Thank you. Thank you.

spk14: Good day and thank you for standing by. Welcome to CoHUE's fourth quarter and full year 2022 financial results conference call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speaker's presentation, there will be a question and answer session. To ask a question during the session, you'll need to press star 1 1 on your telephone. You will then hear an automated message advising your hand is raised. To withdraw your question, please press star 1 1 again. please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Jeff Jims, Chief Financial Officer.

spk08: Good afternoon and welcome to our conference call to discuss CoHUE's fourth quarter 2022 results and first quarter 2023 outlook. I'm joined today by our President and CEO, Luis Mueller. If you need a copy of our earnings release, you may access it from our website at CoHUE.com or by contacting CoHUE Investor Relations. There's also a slide presentation in conjunction with today's call that may be accessed on CoHUE's website in the Investor Relations section. Replays of this call will be available via the same page after the call concludes. Now to the safe harbor. During today's call, we will make forward-looking statements reflecting management's current expectations concerning CoHUE's future business. These statements are based on current information that we have assessed, but which, by its nature, is subject to rapid and even abrupt changes. We encourage you to review the forward-looking statement section of the slide presentation and the earnings release, as well as CoHUE's filings with the SEC, including the most recently filed Form 10-K and Form 10-Q. Our comments speak only as of today, February 16, 2023, and COHU assumes no obligation to update these statements for developments occurring after this call. Finally, during this call, we will discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures. Please refer to our earnings release and slide presentation for reconciliations to the most comparable GAAP measures. Now I'd like to turn the call over to Luis Mueller, COHU's President and CEO.

spk09: Luis? Good afternoon, and thanks for joining us. I'll go straight to the key points and let you ask questions at the end. Q4 was an outstanding quarter in terms of financial metrics, albeit your typical seasonally slow revenue at year end. Revenue of $191.1 million was about flat year over year, with a strong non-GAAP EPS result. More importantly, we continued to make great progress managing costs, growing Cohue's recurring business, and selling differentiated products. Fourth quarter non-GAAP gross margin of 48.8% is a Cohue record, reflects 470 basis points growth year over year, and it's better than our target financial model at this revenue level. Gross margin benefited from steady growth of Cohue's recurring revenue, where we achieved a three-year compound annual growth rate of 5.2% through Q4, and represented approximately 45% of fourth quarter revenue with 55% non-GAAP gross margin. In the last four quarters, recurring revenue was $338 million, delivering a very profitable and resilient revenue stream through industry cycles. Our recurring business is primarily made up of test interface hardware and device application kits that are IC design driven and benefit from the introduction of new semiconductor products by our customers. Koyu's test interface annual revenue grew over 9% year-over-year, demonstrating the value differentiation of our solutions when integrated with our testers and handlers. We also established a strategic collaboration agreement in the fourth quarter with CHPT in Taiwan to deliver advanced probe card interface to customers. Under this new collaboration, We plan to accelerate the proliferation of products addressing 5G and advanced node technologies with cost-efficient interface solutions, leveraging the strength of both companies. CHPT intends to contribute with PCB and MEMS probe technology, while Kohu intends to integrate core high-frequency RF and thermal management capabilities. The balance, or approximately 45% of our recurring revenue over the last 12 months, comes from service revenue generated from an install base that just further expanded with the acquisition of MCT to over 24,100 actively supported systems at customer sites. Part of our service offer includes a DI core data analytics platform. We recently announced that a European IDM customer selected and started deployment of CoHue's predictive maintenance software. This is our first software subscription sale and a major accomplishment for us. This is part of a suite of data analytics products sold under the DI Core brand to deliver improved productivity to our customers. DI Core is a key element of Cohu's midterm strategy to increase value services and grow software revenue to between 15 and 25 million in a few years. Tampering these positives is test cell utilization that we now estimate down three points quarter over quarter to about 79%, reflecting known ongoing softness in mobility, consumer, and competing end markets. Cohuse systems business was 55% of total fourth quarter revenue with 44% non-GAAP gross margin. System revenue distribution in the quarter was notably stronger in automotive and industrial end markets that we have been seeing remain more resilient through this down cycle. Turning to our semi-test business, annual revenue was about flat year over year, but with a significant diversification out of the mobility segment that was particularly weak in 2022. Our analog and fire management sales grew to about 32% of semi-test business, mostly serving automotive and industrial end markets. The display driver grew from a single-digit percent of revenue in 2021 to approximately 16% of the total semi-task revenue in 2022. We've had a remarkable year in pivoting revenue to new applications and customer design wins that help build a more sustainable path forward, predominantly with the DiamondX platform. On the handler business, we had five customer design wins in the fourth quarter with our thermal handler. three of which penetrated unserved production sites of existing customer names. We delivered two new systems for silicon carbide semiconductor tests and inspection in the fourth quarter. We've projected expansion into this customer's new backend test operation and test subcontractor throughout 2023. Now turning to our recently announced MCT acquisition, we're integrating the business within our test handler unit. MCT brings critical technologies that will help accelerate a product development roadmap to address growing opportunities in advanced packaging panel tests. This acquisition also adds a couple of products to Cohue's portfolio and a small revenue stream with gross margins in line with our target financial model. It's a relatively simple business to integrate within Cohue, with neutral EPS impact projected for this year, and expect it to be accretive after realizing operating synergies. As demonstrated, we have made significant progress toward building a resilient business model that is well suited to weather the cyclicality of semiconductor capital equipment spending. We're very well positioned to continue delivering strong profitability and cash flows quarter over quarter. The main focus now is on growth. and ensuring our investments and product roadmaps are aligned to secular growth market opportunities. We're also driving hard to deliver wins on the DiamondX test platform, expand our inspection and metrology business, and continue expansion of our interface products and DI core software. Let me now turn this presentation over to Jeff for additional details on fourth quarter results and first quarter 2023 guidance. Jeff?

spk08: Thanks, Luis. Before I walk through the Q4 results and Q1 guidance, please note that my comments that follow all refer to non-GAAP figures. Information about the non-GAAP financial measures, including the GAAP to non-GAAP reconciliations and other disclosures, are included in the accompanying earnings release and investor presentation, which are located on the investor page of our website. Now, turning to the financial results. COHU again delivered strong revenue and profitability in the quarter. Q4 revenue was $191.1 million and slightly higher than midpoint of our guidance range. Total revenue for full year 2022 was $812.8 million. During the fourth quarter, one customer in the automotive market accounted for more than 10% of sales. For full year 2022, no customer accounted for more than 10% of sales. Gross margin in Q4 set a new record for CoHUE at 48.8%, about 180 basis points higher than guidance driven by CoHUE's recurring business and differentiated products. Headwinds from cost increases for IC components used on our tester products impacted our gross margin in Q4 by approximately 37 basis points. We expect these challenges to persist at reduced levels into mid-2023 as we increase sourcing directly with semiconductor manufacturers and component availability improves. Full-year 2022 gross margin also set a new record for COHU at 47.2%, which is a 360 basis point improvement year-over-year and tracking to our mid-term target of 49%. The headwinds from cost increases for IC components impacted full-year 2022 gross margin by approximately 100 basis points. Operating expenses for Q4 were in line with guidance at $52.4 million. Full-year 2022 operating expenses were approximately 25.6% of revenue and also tracking to our midterm target. Fourth quarter non-GAAP operating income was 21.4% of revenue and adjusted EBITDA was 22.2%. Full year operating income was 21.6%, higher than 2021 by 110 basis points. And adjusted EBITDA for 2022 was 23.7%, higher than 2021 by 150 basis points. The non-GAAP effective tax rate for Q4 was approximately 16% and lower than guidance due to a shift of projected annual pre-tax income from higher tax rate jurisdictions to lower tax rate jurisdictions. The non-GAAP effective tax rate for full year 2022 was approximately 20%. Non-GAAP EPS for the fourth quarter was 70 cents. The full year 2022 EPS was $2.91. In summary, Q4 profitability was strong as gross margin and adjusted EBITDA continued to expand toward the midterm financial target. Now moving to the balance sheet, Q4 cash flow from operations was strong at $27.6 million. Net of share repurchases totaling $12.6 million, debt repayment of $1 million, capital additions of about $4 million, and other changes in working capital Cash and investments increased quarter over quarter by $17 million to $386 million at the end of Q4. Overall, Cohue's balance sheet maintains a strong position to support debt reduction, the share repurchase program, and investment opportunities to expand our served markets and technology portfolio in line with our growth strategy. Now moving to our Q1 outlook. We're guiding Q1 revenue to be between $173 million and $187 million. Q1 gross margin is forecasted to be approximately 47.5%, better than the financial target model, and down 130 basis points quarter over quarter due to lower sales volume and mix. The IC cost component headwinds in the tester business I mentioned earlier will persist and we're projecting the Q1 impact to be approximately 30 basis points. With a three-year compound annual growth rate of 5.2%, CoHUE's high margin recurring business provides consistent cash flow through industry cycles. Operating expenses for Q1 are projected to be approximately 53 million, essentially flat quarter over quarter. We're projecting Q1 interest expense to be approximately 1 million, an offset by interest income of approximately $1 million. We expect Q1 adjusted EBITDA at the midpoint of guidance to be approximately 20%. The Q1 and full year 2023 forecasted non-GAAP tax rate is approximately 20% at the midpoint of guidance. The diluted share count for Q1 is expected to be approximately 48 million shares. And that concludes our prepared remarks. Now we'll open the call to questions.