1/20/2022

speaker
Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Columbia Bank System's fourth quarter and full year 2021 earnings conference call. At this time, all participants are in listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session, and instructions will be given at that time. If you are on the telephone and should require assistance during the conference, please press star zero. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to your host today, Clint Stein, President and Chief Executive Officer of Columbia Bank System.

speaker
Clint Stein

Thank you, Catherine. Welcome and good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us on today's call as we review our fourth quarter and full year 2021 results, which we released yesterday after the market closed. The earnings release and accompanying investor presentation are available at ColumbiaBank.com. 2021 was another record year for Columbia in terms of loan production, balance sheet growth, wealth management fees, and earnings. For the first time in our history, net income exceeded $200 million, assets surpassed $20 billion, and $2 billion of new loan originations were generated outside of the PPP program. We closed the Bank of Commerce holdings acquisition on October 1st, and on October 12th, announced our pending combination with Umpqua Holdings. The BOCH integration has progressed as planned and will conclude during the current quarter. A constant theme on every earnings call over the past two years has been our commitment to remain open and laser focused on helping our clients keep pace with the changes affecting their lives and businesses. The efforts to which our bankers have gone to support each other and our communities has been impressive and it's typical of who we are, working to build strong relationships, being innovative, and growing our people is the bedrock of our culture. It was in place long before COVID-19 has guided our operations throughout the pandemic, and it will continue to propel us as we work to meet new challenges and grow. So we transformed from a $21 billion company into the leading regional bank in the West. I want to thank all of our bankers for their dedication to keeping relationships with clients and each other at the forefront. We will continue to work hard for each other, our communities, and our shareholders. On the call with me today are Aaron Deer, our Chief Financial Officer, Chris Marywell, our Chief Operating Officer, and Andy MacDonald, our Chief Credit Officer. Following our prepared remarks, we will be happy to answer your questions. I do need to remind you that we may make forward-looking statements during the call. For further information on forward-looking comments, please refer to either our earnings release, our website, or our SEC filings. At this point, I'd like to turn the call over to Aaron. Thank you, Glenn. Full-year net income of $203 million and EPS of $2.78 included a full quarter of earnings from our merchants' acquisition of approximately $4.3 million. Our performance was a reflection of strong growth in loans, deposits, and fee income Combined with prudent spending and strategic investment, excluding costs related to the merchant's acquisition, an UMCOA combination of $14.5 million pre-taxed pre-provision income was a record $282 million, exceeding the prior record set in 2020 by $12 million. Fourth quarter earnings of $42.9 million and EPS of $0.55 were a linked quarter decrease of $10.1 million and $0.19 respectively mostly due to the D2 provision for the merchant's loan portfolio. Quarterly pre-tax, pre-provision earnings declined by $1.9 million to $66.7 million, with the decrease attributed to $9.6 million of higher merger-related costs and $6.3 million less interest income from the PPP portfolio, partly offset by the full quarter earnings from merchant's operations. Total deposits exceeded $18 billion at year-end, up $2.1 billion from September 30th, and $4.1 billion over the past year. The merchant's acquisition contributed $1.7 billion to the sequential increase, and our cost of deposits held steady at an all-time low of just four basis points for both the quarter and the year. This is down from seven basis points for all of 2020. The merchant's acquisition added over $800 million of liquidity to the balance sheet, propelling the investment portfolio to $8.1 billion, split 27% held to maturity, and 73% available for sale as of year end. The securities investment yield increased on a linked quarter basis from 1.82% to 1.98%. However, both quarters benefited from the prepayment of interest. Absent this, the investment securities yield remained level at 173. Encouragingly, new purchases during the quarter had an average yield above this level at 193 and a duration of 4.5 years. The net interest margin decreased 12 basis points on a linked quarter basis to 3.05%, mostly due to a decrease in the loan yields driven by a reduction in accelerated PPP fees and partly offset by higher yields and securities due to prepayment interests. Excluding PPP fees and prepaid interest, the net interest margin declined one basis point to 299. The impact to margin from the merchant's acquisition was de minimis. For the year, the net interest margin decreased by 48 basis points due to reductions in loan and investment yields of 30 bits and 42 bits respectively, as well as greater liquidity on the balance sheet. PPP loans added eight basis points to the margin in 2021, driven by 19 million of accelerated fee recognition as loans were forgiven. This compares to 2020 when PPP loans negatively impacted the margin by two basis points with only $6 million of accelerated fee recognition. We believe our balance sheet is very well positioned for a prospective rise in interest rates. Given its asset sensitivity, we see significant opportunity in terms of improving yields as the Fed begins to normalize monetary policy. Currently, $2 billion of loans within the portfolio are at their floor and we anticipate $658 million to increase with a single 25 basis point rate hike. Meanwhile, our deposit costs remain among the lowest in the industry. Total loans rose by $1.1 billion during the quarter to $10.6 billion, with $1 billion coming from merchants. Adjusting for PPP forgiveness and day one merchant balances, loans increased $228 million, or 9% annualized. New loan production was brought on at an average tax-adjusted coupon rate of $357, which compares to the overall portfolio, excluding PPP loans, of $378. Non-interest income increased $282,000 on a linked quarter basis to $24.2 million, with $776,000 for merchants. For the year, non-interest income decreased by 2%. $10.4 million, but when adjusted for the Visa B share gain of $16.4 million realized in the second quarter of 2020, it rose by $6 million on the strength of card revenues, financial services, and trust income. Non-interest expense increased $12.6 million on a linked quarter basis to $102.6 million and included $6.4 million of new run rate expenses for merchants and an increase in acquisition and merger expenses of $9.6 million offset by a $2 million recapture for unfunded loan commitments. Our non-interest expense ratio declined to 1.97% for the quarter, and our operating efficiency ratio decreased three points to 51%. With the addition of merchants, we expect our quarterly non-interest expense run rate to be in the mid-90s range in 2022, excluding deal costs. Expenses could start the year a little higher given seasonal factors and without the benefit of the merchant systems conversion planned for late this quarter. The provision for income taxes has down slightly linked quarter to $13.1 million, representing a 23.4% effective rate. The higher rate stems from certain non-deductible merger costs, income earned in California, and other factors that true up our full-year effective rate to 20.9%. we expect our 2022 effective rate to be similar to the 2021 rate. And with that, I'll turn the call over to Chris. Thank you, Aaron. We had strong core loan growth in the fourth quarter powered by record production, excluding PPP loans. Quarterly production of $640 million was a new all-time fourth quarter high, propelling full-year production to $2 billion for the first time in Columbia's history. Normal seasonality provided a bit of a headwind during the quarter, with line utilization falling to 43%, and we continue to refill our pipelines, and they remain to our satisfaction. Loans ended the year at $10.6 billion, which was up $1.1 billion, or 12%, and excluding the PPP portfolio, up $1.3 billion, or 14%, during the quarter, with $1 billion attributed from merchants. Growth in CRE led the way during the quarter, with $307 million of production predominantly with rental and leasing properties, followed by C&I production of $199 million spread across all sectors. During the quarter, the mortgage team originated and sold $75 million of loans, with the mix 30% purchase and 70% refis. For all of 2021, 353 million of mortgages were originated and sold. The quarterly production mix was 62% fixed, 29% floating, and 9% variable. The overall portfolio now stands at 2% PPP, 53% non-PPP fixed, 30% floating, and 15% variable. PPP loans were $184 million at the end of the year, and merchants added $40 million, with overall payoffs during the quarter of $171 million. At year end, deferred fees related to the PPP portfolio totaled $3.8 million. With the addition of merchants, the geographic loan distribution is now 45% Washington, 31% 12% California, and 5% Idaho, with the remaining 7% in other states. We rose to number one SBA position in the Seattle district and are now the leading SBA lender in both the Seattle and Portland districts. Going forward, we have our sights set on being the leading SBA lender in all of the communities we serve. As was mentioned, deposits grew by $2.1 billion during the quarter, with $1.7 billion from merchants. The deposit mix did not change, remaining at 60% business and 40% consumer at year end. The product mix shifted slightly from 50-50 to 49% demand and 51% interest bearing. Clint mentioned the record-setting year that our wealth management group had, nearing $16 million in revenue. This has been the culmination of years of building internal partnerships and our focus on deepening existing client relationships, and we are very pleased with the progress. Now we'll turn the call over to Andy to review our credit performance. Thank you, Chris. The primary driver of the increase of $12.8 million in the allowance for credit losses over the quarter to $155.6 million is is the increase in the loan portfolio from the Merchant Bank of Commerce acquisition. A day one allowance for credit loss reserve of $2.6 million was added for purchase credit deteriorated loans in the acquired portfolio, and a $16.2 million provision was added for the remaining loans. These additions were partially offset by a more favorable economic forecast and improvements in the credit quality of the overall portfolio. The IHS market economic forecast is more favorable than last quarter, particularly with respect to unemployment, which is a major driver for the model. Last quarter, the unemployment rate was expected to end 2021 at 5% and remain above pre-pandemic levels through the end of 2022. The current forecast assumes the unemployment rate ends 2021 at 4.4%, and remained at or below pre-pandemic levels throughout the forecasted period. The current forecast for GDP continues to be healthy, with a full-year GDP growth expectation for 2021 remaining the same as the forecast last quarter at 5.7%, and growth expectations for 2022 only slightly lower than the forecast last quarter at 4.3%. Despite the continuing challenges the pandemic has been causing, our borrowers have been able to adapt to this new environment and have shown great resilience. NTAs for the quarter improved two basis points to 11 basis points, and pass-through loans were only seven basis points. Net charge-offs annualized were 13 basis points, and our impaired capital ratio improved from 26.2 to 21.7%. We are continuing to see credit quality improve across the whole portfolio. And on the risk rating front, loans rated watch or worse decline from $724 million to $626 million as of year end. Okay, back to Clint. Thanks, Andy. This concludes our prepared comments. As a reminder, Andy, Chris, and Aaron are with me to answer your questions. And now, Catherine, let's open the call for Q&A.

speaker
Operator

Thank you. To ask a question, you'll need to press star 1 on your telephone. To withdraw your question, press the pound key. Again, if you would like to ask a question, press star 1. Our first question comes from Jeff Rulis with DA Davidson. Your line is open.

speaker
Jeff Rulis

Thanks.

speaker
Operator

Good morning.

speaker
Jeff Rulis

Clint, maybe I'd just start with, and not to make a big deal out of this, but the The lending team announcement that you had this week, I think it's a pretty good proxy for a group that at least was aware of the pending merger with UMQA. And I guess maybe the timing of those discussions, had you engaged with those folks prior to the UMQA merger? And then secondly, just, you know, maybe kind of talk about their attraction to the platform given the merger and how they – their confidence, you know, kind of going forward if you could.

speaker
Clint Stein

Yeah, I'll share with you what I can. In terms of timing, you know, it was, you know, post-announcement, and I think it's back to some of the things that we feel, you know, and you probably heard from Court and Tori, you know, the last hour is that, you know, what we're creating is a franchise that hasn't existed in the Northwest for 25 or 30 years. And for, you know, CNI bankers, they, you know, they want to be in an organization where they know that they're going to be able to meet the needs of their existing needs of their clients. but also grow the relationship as those businesses grow. And I think that they saw, you know, first what our capabilities are today on a standalone basis, as well as the information we put out with respect to the combination with Umpqua, and they got excited by it and started the conversation and, you know, they've hit the ground running. You know, I'm not going to share any numbers with you, but even I was very pleasantly surprised by what they have in flight right now. They're keeping Andy busy, keeping him off the ski slopes. So, you know, that's one aspect of it. But I also want to share with you that we've done some other things. You know, we added a physical presence in the Phoenix market. for our national healthcare platform, and we think that's going to be very complimentary, close to the things that Umpqua is doing with the announcements they've made and hires in that market. We'll be able to fold that in and have a more comprehensive offering in that market. There's other markets that we're also very actively engaged in conversations and looking at, you know, other teams that want to be a part of what we're doing. You know, so more to come on that later. But I do think it's a testament to, you know, people that are in our markets that are familiar with both our organizations, Columbia and Umpqua, and they see that back to the comment that I've said many times is that we are more similar than what the market perception has been.

speaker
Jeff Rulis

Sure. Good perspective. I appreciate it, Clint. Just to shift gears, maybe attack Aaron a bit on the expenses. Any chance you could sort of lay out how that's mapped in the income statement where the merger costs were? I'm assuming legal data processing comp, but any chance you could kind of discuss where those came from on the merger costs?

speaker
Clint Stein

Yeah, I can break that down for you. And I think we said in the press release how it breaks down between the two deals with a total of the 11.8%. 7.7 is related to merchants, and 4.1 is to . But by line item, it works out to about 4.9 million is in the comp and benefits line. About 300,000 is occupancy. Another 300,000 is in data processing software. 5.6 million is legal and professional. About 100,000 in advertising and promotion. and then about $600,000 in the other category.

speaker
Jeff Rulis

Got it. And then just to follow on to your, I think your guide you mentioned, you know, looking for a mid-90s run rate on a quarterly basis, X to POMPWA transaction, maybe a little higher in the first quarter. So you kind of talked about expectations for 22. I think if you think about growth rates, I think that sets us. But if we think about cost savings into 23, you know, that target at $135 million, what would you peg an underlying expense growth rate in 23? I know we're getting way out there, but safe to assume there'll be some creep on a baseline ex the the targeted cost saves?

speaker
Clint Stein

I guess we're kind of mixing standalone and combined there. But I think that, and you've probably heard Ron make similar comments on the earlier call, but we're very comfortable with the extent saves targets that we've laid out. You know, certainly expenses all else equal are likely to turn higher as a result of some of the inflationary pressures that, you know, we're obviously well aware of and have been enduring, as well as the investments in the business that we intend to be making on a go-forward basis. So there is an element of expense growth in that, but we're – You know, our internal targets for what we can achieve are better than what we've laid out in terms of the expense-safe guidance in the deal announcement. This is Chris, and I'll add some color to that. At the beginning of this year, we increased our starting wage to $18 an hour for our non-exempt teams. And as part of that process, and you've been with us a long time, You've heard of how we offset, and we're always looking for how we can cover that additional expense. And we were able to find that offset through some of the financial things that we had, and so we feel really confident that we've covered that increase to our starting wage, and it won't show up in our ongoing run rate.

speaker
Jeff Rulis

Okay. I appreciate the detail there. Thank you. I'll step back.

speaker
Operator

Thank you. And our next question comes from Matthew Clark with Piper Sandler. Your line is open.

speaker
Matthew Clark

Hey, good morning, guys. Maybe just sticking with expenses, do you happen to know the amount of cost saves that you've realized to date in the Bank of Commerce deal and what's left?

speaker
Clint Stein

I'll follow up with you on that, Matt. We're tracking right in line with what we expect. In fact, I think we might actually be a little bit ahead of what we're expecting. So we're in good shape, but I don't have that number right currently at the moment. I can maybe try to pull it up before the call ends.

speaker
Matthew Clark

Okay. And then just you may have hit this during your prepared comments, and I apologize if you did, but on the – better than expected cost control this quarter. You know, ex-merger charges held in a lot better than expected. Can you speak to anything unusual? I know you guided for the upcoming quarter and the outlook, but anything unusual this quarter?

speaker
Clint Stein

I think we had the $2 million benefit from the negative provision in the quarter. I think that might be what's what you're thinking of there.

speaker
Matthew Clark

Nothing above and beyond that, though?

speaker
Clint Stein

No.

speaker
Matthew Clark

Okay. Okay. And then on commercial real estate growth stepped up meaningfully this quarter. Can you speak to the underlying properties you guys are financing and where you're sourcing the growth from in terms of customers? whether existing or new?

speaker
Clint Stein

Yeah, Matt, it's a combination of both. And it's not straying from anything that we have typically done. We're looking at owner-user as well as other types of projects that are out there as well. But nothing that falls out of moving away from our historic portfolio and what we would normally do. But I will say, There is a good mix of existing clients as well as due to our approach, we continue to attract new clients from other institutions. And that's got a really positive outlook as we go forward.

speaker
Matthew Clark

Okay. And then just on the loan pipeline, if you could quantify it and how it compares to last quarter or year over year.

speaker
Clint Stein

We're still very pleased with it. Of course, it's down slightly after a record quarter as we've had previous record quarters. I think the piece there is while it's down slightly, we have all the confidence with what we've talked about previously of a new team coming on and just the focus of our bankers of being external out in the market, talking to our clients, talking to prospects. that will rebuild that and the prospects are good for this year by all means.

speaker
Operator

Okay, thank you. Thank you. And our next question comes from David Feaster with Raymond James. Your line is open.

speaker
David Feaster

Hey, good morning everybody. Hi David. Just, I want to start on the growth side. I mean, growth exceeded forecast, record 4Q originations, and digging into the numbers, it almost looks a little bit better when you look and see that payoffs and paydowns were pretty materially higher. Just curious whether there's just some noise in the payoffs and paydowns line from the Bank of Commerce deal and potentially normal seasonal activity at the year end, or whether there's any other trends you're seeing, and just Kind of taking this into account with the improving origination activity, less loan participations, you know, given the combination with UMQA, does this imply that we could actually see potentially accelerating growth just given the continued strong originations and normalizing payoffs?

speaker
Clint Stein

Yeah, there's a lot in there, David. You know, I would say to try to pull it apart a little bit. I've been very pleased with the activity from the merchants, or I should say the lack of payoff activity. You know, the process that we went through and retaining the teams, retaining Randy Eslick as a leadership down there. We've held on to the clients. Many of them are excited about the opportunity to be with a larger organization. to be able to take care of their needs. They don't have to look anywhere else and that's only going to get enhanced when we move forward with the UMQA combination. Now bringing it back more to our legacy piece of it, we did have a fair amount of payoffs and paydowns during the quarter of, you know, some CRE types of transactions that buildings sold, things of that nature. Obviously, as you mentioned, the good news is the teams are active and they're out, and the originations are more than offsetting that. I think rising interest rates, if they materialize, we could start to see payoffs, paydowns be somewhat muted. I would say, though, that I'm cautious on businesses will still sell, properties will still sell, and things of that nature. You know, I think all signs are pointing in the right direction. We just have some – we have a little ways to go before we see how it actually materializes. Okay.

speaker
David Feaster

That makes sense. And then just touching on deposits, organic deposit growth has remained extremely strong. Just curious how you think about deposit growth as we go forward. Do you think loan growth might start outpacing deposit growth as we head into next year? Or just given the increasing contribution from CNI, would you – perhaps see outside deposit growth?

speaker
Clint Stein

Yeah, deposit growth is one that we've spent a lot of time looking at. I would love to tell you we have the exact crystal ball that we can predict what's going to happen. I think the story there really is we've attracted the deposits. We've attracted new clients. We haven't changed our philosophy about how we price. So we're winning these relationships and these deposits based on our capabilities, based on our bankers and the relationships and the solutions that they're providing. I think that puts us in a really good position should rates start to rise that, we'll be able to maintain kind of our historical costs of funds that we've had of how we follow that up. But I think that what was really in there is we have a lot of liquidity and we'll be very mindful as we start to see where the flows go from money being spent. I would caution that all the money being spent is staying in the system and it comes right back around into another client's account typically. But more importantly, I'm going to point you back to our bankers are winning business, and that's bringing on new relationships, and many of them are significant. And so that's going to be a piece that if we started to see some deposits leave, I'm pretty confident we're going to continue to win that type of business, and it should be able to offset it. All things being equal, that's where I would look at that aspect. David, I'll just add, with all the deposit growth that we've had in the last two years, we've done that and it hasn't changed what I think is some structural advantages that we have in our deposit base, roughly half non-interest bearing, 60% business oriented. You know, we had for 2021, you know, again, another strong year of deposit growth at four basis points for cost of funds. And so I think that that quality, high-quality deposit franchise that we've been known for for a very long period of time, it's actually been strengthened and not diluted by the growth. You know, and so it's a good first world problem for us to have, which is how do we deploy that liquidity, you know, because it has outstripped loan growth. And so we'll see, you know, there's a lot of activity going on. You know, I think Chris is trying to contain his excitement about the economic activity in our existing markets and then the focus that we have with our Umpqua combination and, you know, the momentum that we still have each as separate companies and our strategy around having the integration management office insulate our client facing bankers from all the integration activities. I think we've seen that play out over the last three months and I think we're going to see that momentum continue to carry well into 2022 and

speaker
David Feaster

2023. That's a really good point and kind of dovetails into my last question. I was hoping to get kind of an update on how the UMPLA merger, those discussions are going. I was hoping you could provide us with a little bit of color and detail around the integration management office and just some of the things that that team is working on currently to help ensure a smooth integration and, again, like you said, preventing disruption on the producer side?

speaker
Clint Stein

Yeah. So Chris was in my office before the call, and we were talking about an existing – client relationship that wants to expand what they do with us significantly in anticipation of our combination with Umpqua. We also had another conversation about some production teams. Eric Guy comes into my office and he's talking about vendor selection of, you know, how, you know, the process for, you know, the redundant facilities or the excess facilities space that we have, you know, something, you know, like even our HRIS system which sounds like, you know, it's not just payroll, you know, it's how we, you know, train and develop our people and the integration throughout our company. And so thinking about the employee experience as we go through the integration. So Chris is very focused on the client piece and others. It's a whole executive team. But I'm just giving you some illustrative examples of the types of things that they're working on and how they're staying focused. I guess staying in their lane and executing on that vision of insulating the client facing bankers from any distraction. There's a lot of activity around planning towards the day one close and converging processes and policies and all of those discussions are taking place. You know, Chris and then on the UMQA, from the UMQA team, Tori, they're not totally isolated from this. They do sit on the steering committee that we have, you know, and so they're involved, but they're not consumed by it. I'll tell you that Eric and then his counterpart at UMQA, Drew, they are consumed by integration planning activities right now.

speaker
David Feaster

Okay.

speaker
MBS

that's great color thanks everybody thank you and we have a question from John race room with RBC Capital Markets your line is open either John are from RBC was everybody doing good how are you John good good question for you Aaron just on the margin in in the release on it feels like you're almost optimistic on the outlook for the margin or at least less pessimistic. If you set rates aside, how do you feel about just the prospect of margin stabilization, maybe some of the puts and takes you want us to think through?

speaker
Clint Stein

Yeah, I think we're getting close. I would highlight that in the quarter we had a pretty good amount of what we call prepay income on the mortgage, on the bond book. MBS, that was about $4.7 million. So we got a pretty good bump from that. That's about, we always have a little bit of that each quarter, but that was about three times what we might ordinarily see in a quarter. So that helped on our investment securities yield during the quarter. The loan yields in the quarter, if you look at where the tax-adjusted coupon was, XTP was $1. It was 378, and the new loans came on the book at 357, which was about the same level as the prior quarter. It does bounce around quite a bit. New loans are coming on still below where the portfolio is, so I think there's still a likelihood for some pressure there. I think that we're getting closer to, you know, to a bottom or inflection point. And I think very importantly, obviously, the tone around the likelihood of rate hikes, you know, we've already seen it exhibited in the, you know, at the long run of the curve, the 10 years up pretty materially, you know, over the past quarter. And we're seeing that, too, in our new bond purchases already. And hopefully we'll start seeing that on the loan side as well, though that's likely to take a little longer. We could ultimately see a little bit of compression before the real benefit of higher rate hikes materializes. But we obviously have a fantastic funding base. The balance sheet is very asset sensitive. I have really good disclosure in the deck. I would point you to actually a new slide that we put in. It's slide 16 of the investor presentation because it's historically presented a pretty conservative picture in terms of our betas and what's assumed in our interest rate sensitivity and that we provided some additional beta levels going down as low as 15, which even still is above the beta that we exhibited during the last rate rising cycle. So I think that will give you a better picture of just how powerful higher rates can be to our net interest income as we hopefully get the benefit of that.

speaker
MBS

Yeah, I was just going to, you answered my follow-up on that, because It just feels like maybe your deposit base, like others, is a little bit different at this point than the last cycle. And I'd probably take the bet on lower betas, at least early on, but I think that's good information.

speaker
Clint Stein

Am I on the same side as you about that? And also, to go back to Clint's earlier comments here about the strength of our non-extreme deposits and how our clientele is truly differentiated with our commercial focus, the percentage of non-interest-bearing deposits, the percentage of the total, increased during the last rate rising cycle. And there's not a lot of institutions that can say that.

speaker
MBS

Andy, one for you on the provision. It looks like absent Bank of Commerce, we would have had another negative provision or reserve release. How are you feeling about overall credit? And is there anything that you would call out other than growth that would impact the provisioning going forward?

speaker
Clint Stein

Yeah, your conclusion is correct. We would have had a release. Obviously, we're feeling pretty good with where the portfolio stands. We enjoyed a lot of healing during the quarter as well as during the year. I think that the economic forecast is beginning to stabilize. And as you know, CECL is very dependent on the economic forecast that you use. So as that stabilizes, it'll create less volatility in the model, and I think that the provision will become much more stable as well quarter to quarter. So in general, I feel good about credit quality, and I feel optimistic about the levels of provisioning that we would have to do even given growth.

speaker
MBS

All right. Thanks, everyone. That's all I had.

speaker
Clint Stein

Thanks, John.

speaker
Operator

Thank you, and I'm sure no further questions at this time. I'd like to turn the call back to Clint Stein for closing remarks.

speaker
Clint Stein

Actually, before we go there, I just want to respond to Matthew Clark's question on the cost savings on the merchant's deal. Year-to-date, we have realized $2.3 million annualized in terms of the cost savings. By the end of this quarter, I think we should be around 9.9, which should be about 80%, a little over 80% of what we've targeted. And at this point, our expectation is that we do better than target on the cost-saves. So we're tracking as expected and looking good on that front. I'll turn it over to Scott. Thanks, Aaron. Thank you for attending our fourth quarter call. We look forward to seeing many of you in the coming weeks. In the meantime, have a great day and goodbye.

speaker
Operator

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

Disclaimer

This conference call transcript was computer generated and almost certianly contains errors. This transcript is provided for information purposes only.EarningsCall, LLC makes no representation about the accuracy of the aforementioned transcript, and you are cautioned not to place undue reliance on the information provided by the transcript.

-

-