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spk07: Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining today's conference call to discuss Dasky's financial and operational results for the quarter ended September 30th, 2023. With us today are Jonathan Shepko, Chief Executive Officer and Board Member, Aaron Coley, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Scott Hoppe, Executive Vice President, Chief Operating Officer, and Adrian Griffin, Vice President of Investor Relations and Treasurer. I would like to hand the call over to Adrian Griffin. Adrian, please go ahead.
spk01: Thank you, Kevin. As indicated in the press release earlier today, participants may now download the third quarter 2023 presentation that will accompany the remarks made on today's call. You may access this presentation on Daske's website, www.daske.com, in the events and presentations portion within the investor relations section. Slide two of today's presentation contains our safe harbor and non-gap statements. Today's presentation also contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Projected financial information, including our guidance outlook, are forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements, including those with respect to revenues, earnings, performance, strategies, prospects, and other aspects of Daske's business, are based on management's current estimates, projections, and assumptions that are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from our expectations and projections. I encourage you to read our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission for a discussion of the risks that could affect our business, and not to place any undue reliance on any forward-looking statements. We undertake no obligation to revise our forward-looking statements to reflect events or circumstances occurring after today, whether as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise, except as may be required under applicable securities laws. During the call, there will also be a discussion of some items that do not conform to U.S. generally accepted accounting principles or GAAP, including and not limited to adjusted EBITDA, adjusted EBITDA margin, adjusted operating ratio, adjusted operating income, and adjusted net income or loss. Reconciliations of these non-GAAP measures to their most directly comparable GAAP measures are included in the appendix to the investor presentation and press release issued this morning, both of which are available on our website. In terms of the structure of our call today, I will first turn the call over to Jonathan Shepko, who will review our business operations and then progress that we're making as we execute our key strategic priorities. Aaron Coley will then provide an update on our third quarter results. Jonathan will conclude our prepared remarks with an updated 2023 outlook before we open the line for your questions. With that, I'll turn the call over to Jonathan. Jonathan?
spk05: Thank you, Adrienne, and thank you all for joining us this morning. Before I provide our results for the third quarter and outlook for the final quarter of the year, I'd like to thank our team members for their ongoing service to our customers, our vendors, their fellow team members, and our company. Thus far, during a challenging year for the transportation and logistics industry, our team has achieved many successes. In fact, we have demonstrated improved performance during the cycle trough, including enhanced operational productivity, successful execution of our 2023 One Dasky initiatives, and the strengthening of our balance sheet. Our collective performance will advance our business for many years to come. During the quarter, we recorded 98 million total consolidated miles, a 2 million mile increase over the prior year period, with company miles reporting 8.5% growth. In concert with the additional mileage, our organization has taken decisive actions to improve our operating performance. Year-over-year consolidated productivity, as measured by miles per seated tractor per day, improved 0.6%. we added 10 percent to our company tractor fleet and concurrently improved utilization by 0.6 percent. Achieving operational improvement is materially more difficult in a softer environment. Thus, these results are a testament to our team's focused and deliberate execution. Simultaneously, our operating teams have also diligently allocated incremental and higher rate loads to our company-owned fleet for improved margin capture. We continue to advance our one-desk initiatives to improve our process and position ourselves for the upcycle. Earlier this year, for example, we launched a new platform that facilitates company-wide visibility for our recruiters to see and share open driving positions across the Dasky organization. With a holistic view of open driving positions, recruiters can efficiently collaborate to guide the best driving talent to the optimal fit anywhere within Dasky. Another encouraging success is the completion of our first phase integrations. In late 2022, we began integrating two smaller operating companies into our largest specialized operating company. At the inception of the integration, the two smaller opcos struggled with higher unseated truck count, operational challenges, and commercial opportunities collectively, driving each of these companies' operating ratios to exceed 100%. Over the last several months, as the benefits of these integrations have begun to offset the friction costs, we have seen a several hundred basis point improvement in operating ratio in a much more challenging environment. And on our August earnings call, we discussed taking actions to integrate an underperforming southeast flatbed fleet with one of our stronger core southeast flatbed platform companies. The once underperforming fleet is now delivering margins on par with a stronger platform company, helping offset some of the continued market weakness. Performer for these integrations, the combined operations are improving financial and operational metrics, and these integrations have absolutely contributed to improved adjusted EBITDA performance in 2023. In fact, with these cumulative actions, We are pleased to report achieving the $10 million in adjusted EBITDA contribution we set as a goal for this current year, and we would expect this post-integration value uplift to be even more pronounced in stronger market environments. These actions are concrete examples of the strategies we are employing to optimize our operations, improve consolidated performance, and deliver strong returns. For our final update on improved performance during the cycle trough, we have firmly adhered to our commitment to enhance our balance sheet, using excess cash to reduce higher cost components of our capital structure, reducing gross debt, and lowering ongoing cash costs, which Aaron will now detail in his prepared remarks. Aaron?
spk03: Thank you, Jonathan, and good morning, everyone. I will begin with an update on our capital allocation on slide seven. As you will recall, early in 2023, we committed to meaningfully reduce our gross leverage. During the third quarter, we continued to deliver on that commitment by making a $20 million discretionary payment on our term loan. Including this payment, we have now reduced the term loan balance by $73 million in 2023. In addition to redeeming all our preferred Series B-1 shares, we carried a 13% annual dividend for $20 million. Together, this $93 million balance sheet improvement was funded with cash on hand. and as of September 30, 2023, our total debt was lower than the balance as of year-end 2022. If these actions had cumulatively occurred on January 1 of this year, we would have lowered interest expense by $2.8 million and permanently eliminated $2.6 million in annual preferred dividend payments for a total cash savings on an annual basis exceeding $5 million. Given our term loan currently bears interest at 9.5% and the Series B1 was at 13%, we significantly improved our cost of capital. Our resulting liquidity position was $189 million, including $77 million of cash on hand and $112 million available from our revolver. We will continue to evaluate opportunities for additional outsized term loan repayments, and we intend to make remain thoughtful and flexible with our capital allocation, while always considering the improvement of our risk-adjusted return for shareholders. Now turning to slide eight, I'd like to review our consolidated Q3 financial performance. As anticipated, the typical seasonal uplift was largely absent, and our third quarter consolidated revenue of $402 million was 13% lower than the same quarter last year, while net revenue, which excludes fuel surcharge revenue, was $355 million, or 11% lower than the prior year period. We continue to see demand growth in logistics, where revenue increased more than 8% year over year, which was driven by our strong customer relationships and our focus on leveraging our differentiated capabilities to help customers solve their logistics challenges. During the third quarter, the company recorded a 93% adjusted OR, compared to 89% in the prior year period, as operating expenses occurred at a reduced at a slower rate than revenue. Adjusted EBITDA of $50 million was $2 million lower compared to the second quarter of this year, but less than one-half of 1% lower on an adjusted EBITDA margin basis, which declined from to 14.1% from 14.5%. That said, as compared to the prior year period, adjusted EBITDA declined $15 million, primarily due to freight rate declines combined with fuel surcharge revenue declines that outpaced the decline in fuel costs in the current year quarter and weakened secondary markets for revenue equipment sales. During the third quarter of 2023, company fuel expense net of fuel surcharge revenue increased by $0.09 per company mile as compared to the same period in 2022. This resulted in approximately $5 million of adjusted EBITDA reduction in the current year period as compared to the prior year period. While we expect fuel surcharge to be neutral to earnings over the long term, It lags current market conditions when diesel prices quickly rise or fall. Current quarter adjusted EBITDA was also impacted by lower realized prices on equipment sales, which reduced third quarter 2023 gain on sale by $2 million versus the third quarter of 2022. Realized prices were lower due to additional equipment in the market arising from transportation companies shedding excess capacity as new orders arrived and carriers that exited. Concluding consolidated results, we generated cash flow from operations of $34 million in the quarter. This is a sequential improvement versus the $28 million that generated in the second quarter and $31 million in the first quarter, which totals $93 million in cash flow from operations so far this year. demonstrating the cash generation power of our business even at freight cycle lows. Turning now to slide 10, our specialized solution segment reported revenue of $239 million, an 11% decline versus the prior year quarter, primarily due to revenue reduction in owner-operator freight, brokerage, and fuel surcharge revenue. In the third quarter of this year, Specialized Solutions realized an average rate per mile of $3.31 compared to the prior year period of $3.62. This decline in rate equates to $12 million of lower revenue on 48 million miles driven during the quarter. Adjusted OR was 92% in the current year quarter compared to the near cycle peak of 87% in the third quarter of last year. This current quarter result is still favorable considering the current freight environment. Adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA margin were 31 million and 15 percent in the current year period. Current quarter adjusted EBITDA was impacted by increased net fuel expense of nine cents per mile this quarter, resulting in a four million dollar reduction in adjusted EBITDA as compared to the same period in 2022. Specialized Solutions maintained solid performance versus the prior year period, with total miles, miles per seated truck per day, and deadhead, essentially flat, with the year-ago period. Compared to the prior year period, segment company miles were nearly 5% higher, and company-loaded miles were more than 6% higher. Our team continued to prioritize loading of higher margin company-owned assets, resulting in a decline in company freight revenue of less than 2% versus the robust prior period. Moving on to slide 11, third quarter 2023 flatbed solution segment revenue of $164 million was $31 million lower than the strong prior year quarter. However, this reduction in revenues was largely contained to the $25 million decline in asset light revenue between brokerage and owner-operator. In the third quarter of this year, Flatbed Solutions realized an average rate per mile of $2.36 compared to the prior year period of $2.59. This decline in rate equates to a blended $12 million of lower revenue on the 50 million miles driven in the quarter. Adjusted OR was 95% in the current year quarter compared to the near cycle peak of 92% in the third quarter of last year. Adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA margin were 19 million and 14% in the current year period. Current quarter adjusted EBITDA was impacted by the previously mentioned 9 cents per mile of increased net fuel expense, resulting in a $1.5 million reduction in adjusted EBITDA as compared to the same period in 2022. Nearly all of the aforementioned $2 million decrease in gain on sale was realized within the flatbed segment. The combined impact of these two trends was $3.5 million, comprising a majority of the $3.9 million comparative period reduction in adjusted EBITDA. To combat declining rates, flatbed solutions diligently focused on operational excellence. Total segment miles increased 4% versus the prior period to nearly 50 million miles. Seated truck count was nearly 19% higher and benefited from improvements in deadhead and miles per seated truck per day of 1% and 6%, respectively. When combined with the proactive asset rights shift, toward company capacity, these productivity and utilization improvements overlaid on a 2% higher company-seeded truck count, creating an increase of more than 20% in company-loaded miles. This yielded 5% better company freight revenue than the third quarter of 2022, overcoming the soft rate environment and partially offsetting a decline in brokerage revenue. Our Ask That Bright strategy continues to support our results through the cycle. and we remain focused on productivity improvements to augment our results now and in the future. This includes the successful integrations Jonathan mentioned in his opening remarks. Our results reflect our team members' focus on operational efficiency and the strengthening of our balance sheet, which establishes an even stronger position ahead of the impending upcycle. I'll now turn the call back to Jonathan for an update on our 2023 outlook. Jonathan? Thank you, Aaron.
spk05: Turning now to slide 12, with nine months of the year behind us, our forecast for the remaining months anticipates many of the thematic pressures on financial performance to persist, inflationary headwinds, an oversupplied used equipment market, a restless owner-operator and lease-purchase driver pool, and typical seasonal rate softening in an already challenged environment. We do believe in the adage, the cure for low prices is low prices, and this cycle will eventually correct in a meaningful way even without a distinct external catalyst. We will likely not be beneficiaries of this recovery until 2024, however, and as such, we are adjusting our 2023 four-year adjusted EBITDA outlook to 185 to 190, which implies a fourth quarter of 35 to 40 million. Furthermore, we are updating our net capital expenditure guidance to 155 to 160 million, which is higher than the previous guidance of 135 to 145 million. This update is largely due to the timing of equipment deliveries based upon delivery delays in the first half of the year and our ongoing discussions with the OEMs. While we were expecting an ongoing lag in 2023 equipment deliveries, in recent months, the OEMs have committed to fulfilling our original 2023 orders, and hence, we now expect 2023 reinvestment more in line with our original capital budget of $145 to $155 million. That said, as discussed in today's prepared remarks, The secondary equipment market has impacted our cash proceeds, which is also contributing to the now modest increase in our net capital guidance. As we prepare for the impending upcycle, these expenditures position our company with a younger fleet, which reduces operating and maintenance costs, increases uptime, and allows us to attract and retain some of the best drivers in the industry. Our 2024 ambition is to continue to be cash flow positive regardless of the market environment. With that in mind, we intend for our future capital expenditures to have an upper bound within our projected discretionary cash flow and we will remain focused on deleveraging our balance sheet and holding sacrosanct the durability of our company. Moving on to slide 13. While the freight environment is not cooperating, the macro backdrop is cautious and the capital markets are skittish. We do believe this phase of the cycle will soon pass as it always has. What I'd like everyone on this call to walk away with today are a few key messages from this slide. First, our significant progress during the last four years, as evidenced in part by our sustained peer leading improvement in adjusted EBITDA margin, inclusive of fuel surcharge, since the last cycle trough in 2019. To be clear, the chart on the right side of this slide is a trough to trough relative comparison of rolling four quarters adjusted EBITDA margin, inclusive of fuel surcharge revenue, comparing Dasky versus a broad 14-company transportation and logistics peer group. Our margin improvement over this four-year period has demonstrated our best-in-class positioning among this trucking and logistics industry group, while besting nearly all of our truckload peers with trough-to-trough margin improvement of nearly 32% or 300 basis points. In a more constructive freight market, we expect this relative outperformance to sustain with an even wider adjusted EBITDA margin spread. Second, in addition to numerous operating company integrations, our progress is clearly validated by our third quarter adjusted OR of 93%, an impressive improvement from 96% in 2019. And our 2023 year-to-date adjusted EBITDA of $150 million is 26% higher than what we generated through the first three quarters of 2019. This significant financial progress, together with our 2023 capital allocation actions, has contributed to improving our gross leverage to 3.3 times from four and a half times in 2019. The change we are affecting is real and is lasting. We will continue to pull the right levers, deliver on our commitments and priorities, and drive additional earnings and free cash flow. These efforts will provide an attractive runway for our shareholders, extended by the recovery in our sector, as well as the eventual multiple expansion we would expect our stock to benefit from as we perform. We are proud of how we have risen to the occasion and driven the company forward. We are encouraged by the resolve and agility of our team, continuing to provide customers with differentiated service, as well as finding new opportunities. The nadir of the cycle is pressure testing our businesses, prompting us with an obligation to be dispassionately critical about not only our customers, lanes, and sub-verticals, but also our own operating companies. We are taking comprehensive approach focused on improving long-term profitability from reallocating resources out of unprofitable lanes to contemplating elimination of fleets that lack cross-cycle resilience. We will not take our eye off the ball. I'd now like to ask the operator to open the line for your questions. Kevin?
spk07: Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, if you have a question or a comment at this time, please press star 1-1 on your telephone. If your question has been answered, or if you wish to move yourself from the queue, please press star 1-1 again. We will pause for a moment while we compile our Q&A roster.
spk06: Our first question comes from Jason Cito with TD Cowan.
spk07: Your line is open.
spk02: Thank you, operator. Jonathan, team, good morning, guys. A couple questions from me here. You know, you're increasing the CapEx a bit, but, you know, reducing your expectations on earnings seems a little bit counterintuitive. Maybe run through that a little bit more for me. And also, I know you probably don't have it out yet for 2024 on CapEx, but at least directionally, what should we expect?
spk03: Yeah, thanks, Jason. Yeah, as we look at 2023, we have the opportunity to catch up. And so as we look at 2024, we would expect a lower 2024 net capex. We maintain the investment in our equipment and our professional drivers and reduced support costs. reduce port cost ahead of the upcoming cycle. And we think these together lower our operating costs, increase asset reliability, and overall better prepare us for the upcoming cycle.
spk05: Yeah, and just to add on to that, Jason, I do want to be clear. So our CapEx guide at the beginning of the year was 150 to 155. And so in our prepared remarks, we kind of mentioned given some of the delays that in the OEM deliveries and scheduling. We took that, and at the end of the first quarter, we took that down to 135 to 145. The OEMs then told us, I mean, really in the last few months that they could actually catch us up. We've taken advantage of that. To Erin's point, we do believe having a younger fleet being well-positioned to take advantage of the uptick is the way to go. So our CapEx guide is very close to what it was at the beginning of the year. And that Q1 reduction was only provided and only made because we anticipated some equipment delays by the OEMs.
spk02: Okay. That makes sense. And you said the guide for net next year is going to be down. Is the guide for gross going to be down as well?
spk05: Yes. Yes.
spk02: Okay. Perfect. Okay. You guys also talked about not expecting to see a turnaround until 2024. Can I get you to narrow that? Do you expect it's going to be first half or second half for you guys?
spk05: Yeah. I mean, look, hard to say. I mean, we've listened to some of our other peers kind of talk about it, and I think we're thinking about it. We're thinking about 2024 the same way where it's going to be. I think the word transition year has been used to describe next year quite a bit. And I think if you think about things – From a rate standpoint, you look at a source like FTR who's predicting spot rates to firm back up next year. Look, that's great for us. It's great for the industry. It also means that contract rates are not far behind, maybe a couple quarters behind that. So when you think about the rate side of the ledger, we're cautiously optimistic there. Early discussions we've had as we go into bid season with our larger core customers, suggest that contract rates are going to be flat to this year. I think as we get to the back half of the year, we might see some kind of movement there and maybe gain a little bit of ground with some of those customers. So we think all in all, the rate side of the ledger is going to be fairly balanced, fairly stable. The volume side of the ledger we think is going to be interesting. We do think that the industry's talked about capacity leaving the market for a number of quarters now. We do think that we're at a point within the next few quarters where that will start to have a more meaningful impact in really bringing supply demand in parity. And I think the other big shift that you're seeing there The carriers leaving aren't the one truck, five truck, 10 truck carriers anymore, fleets anymore. They're the 100, 200, 300, 400 truck fleets that are exiting the market. So we think that as that phenomenon continues, you've got some of the larger brokerage houses coming, closing down. You've got some of the you know, a number of the asset light logistics shops, closing up shops. So as you really begin to take, continue to take that capacity out, particularly in those larger swaths, we'll start to see a little bit of parity. We think that'll, you know, that'll help. And, you know, the other thing that I think we can speak to on the volume side is we're starting to see kind of a flight to safety, if you will, of our customers. You know, 2021, 2022, there was kind of a reallocation of volumes in favor of the brokerage shops and the asset-like guys because they had a value proposition in lower rates relative to contract rates. What we're seeing now is a number of those carriers are going out of business. A number of those carriers can't cover the loads when they get them, so they're double-brokering, triple-brokering those loads Shippers are losing visibility as to actually who's moving those loads. Cargo claims are up dramatically. On-time delivery service generally is dramatically waning. And so we do think that as these more sophisticated shippers look at the universe, look at the kind of financial fallout, and the risk to managing and continuing their business and operations, they're going to shift some of that transport spend in favor of the asset-right, asset-based guys, and so we'll be beneficiaries of that on the volume side. And then I think, look, we've got our transformation, which we have said 10 million next year. We still feel really good about that. And then you've got, look, you've got an election year. So it'll be interesting to see what the Fed does as we approach that, if anything. So there could be a catalyst there to improving the environment. We certainly think that depending on which regime wins next year, there could be a more, look, a friendlier group in control that would be very beneficial to a lot of the end markets that we serve. So there's a lot, I think, to be excited about next year, but we're still putting our numbers together for 2024. But I think we're cautiously optimistic that it'll be a transition year plus with potentially a little bit of upside to this year.
spk02: Okay. Well, given that backdrop and given the backdrop for lower capex, You're going to generate additional cash next year. You've done a very good job of debt repayment with a $50 million slug and a $20 million slug. What should we expect going forward, and has there been any consideration to doing a buyback? I know you guys aren't the most liquid name out there, but being slightly less illiquid than you are now probably will have very little impact.
spk05: Yeah, so fair question. I mean, I think that I'll hit the share buyback first, and then I'll talk about leverage. I think the way we're thinking about the share repurchase, I definitely think it's on the table. It's something we talk about, you know, amongst the management team, frankly, daily, particularly at this price, and with the board pretty regularly as well. So I do think that we'll earmark some amount of cash for a repurchase. I can't tell you the repurchase is going to take place in the next month or six months, but certainly would like it to take place, you know, in this kind of stock price zip code before the market starts to price in kind of a recovery and the stock tears. So we do want to buy kind of in this area. So I think something in the near term is definitely on the table. That said, we've made a commitment to our shareholders to de-lever, and we're going to play true to that. I think that, you know, as you look at As you look at our stock, I mean, we've completely decoupled from any correlation relative to our peers. So we're not, I mean, truly the correlation is zero relative to our peer group. And so when you look at it, the only thing that we can think of is, you know, kind of volume constraints aside to your point, but the only thing we can think of is, look, we're a lever name, right, relative to our peer group. We think our leverage profile is manageable. It's extremely friendly, covenant-like paper. There's no near-term maturities, but at the end of the day, when you look at us versus our peers and they average a half a turn of leverage, you know, and we're, you know, gross leverage of 3.3 times, in kind of a risk-off environment, we could see how we get penalized for that. And look, at the end of the day, if you normalized our debt load and you took out the preferred dividends and you look at us relative to our peers, you add another dollar per share of EPS, right? And so... The optics of risk of Dasky, given our current leverage profile, the amount of cash that's going into the pockets of our lenders and not going into the pockets of our shareholders is something we're extremely mindful of. So we're balancing that, but there will be additional repayments of debt in the near term. I can't give you a number yet, but both those are on the table, but we're absolutely going to prioritize delevering the company.
spk02: Yeah, that makes a lot of sense to me. And my last one, before I turn it over to somebody else, I guess I was surprised to see the pressure of the high-security cargo, given all that's been going on globally on a geopolitical basis. Can you maybe give us some more details on what's going on with the end market?
spk05: Yeah, I think that one, there's really kind of two things going on. I mean, there were some pretty sizable loads that I think the DOD shifted a little bit to rail, which they don't typically do. but they had a little bit more time, and some of those larger loads weren't as time-sensitive, so they shifted a little bit of that capacity a couple months to rail, and then honestly, you've got a lot of our competitors, which is a tight group of qualified carriers that can move the stuff we're moving, but those guys are all doing the same things we are, where they're looking at end markets going, what end markets are still extremely attractive, and they're shifting capacity around to capture more upside within those markets, and And high security has been one that's been completely resilient from a volume standpoint and a rate standpoint. So we intermittently see that. We saw it at the beginning of Q1 in kind of January or February. That competitive dynamic abated. We saw it a little bit, you know, this quarter. But the market, the underlying market, the volumes are absolutely still there. And we think they're absolutely going to still be there for the foreseeable future based on our feedback from our customers. So just kind of an anomaly.
spk02: I appreciate that. Jonathan, team, appreciate the time.
spk07: Thanks, Jason. Thanks, Jason. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from Ryan Sigtal with Craig Hallam. Your line is open. Hey, good morning, guys.
spk03: Morning, Ryan.
spk08: Curious on the CapEx guidance, what percent of that is new tractors and equipment versus used?
spk05: It's all new. It's all new, Ryan.
spk08: Any thought to, I guess, the secondary market's oversupplied. You're not getting as much for your tractors you're selling in. There's all kinds of capacity leaving with presumably equipment hitting the market, I guess. Why not shift from new equipment strategy into lightly used equipment?
spk05: That's, look, Ryan, you're spot on. I mean, that's something that we're evaluating for next year. We, part of the rationale is, look, we had some legacy. I mean, look, this is a long story, right? You've been around it the whole time. But, I mean, we're trying to get our fleet age down, our company truck fleet age down, as well as our LP fleet age to a reasonable age. There was some deferred capex from years ago on the trailer side of things. So we needed to spend this money, again, to be well positioned for the upturn. And so we needed the new equipment. Right now, our company truck fleet age is closer to two, low two years of age. And we have a pretty young trailer fleet as well. So I think prospectively what we'll do, particularly next year, in addition to kind of moderating the absolute kind of quantum of CapEx, we'll ship some of that to the used truck market. I mean, those prices kind of peak to where we're at today, so peak 2022 to current. The average used truck price has come down 40%. So we think it's an attractive buy. And so we'll use that to kind of supplement here and there next year. So it'll be a combination of new and used trailers next year. Sorry, new and used trucks and trailers next year.
spk08: Makes sense. Switching over, curious for an update on the wind market specifically and if any expectations on a rebound in 2024, if that has changed. And then secondly, kind of to that, I guess, does Dasky have any exposure to the offshore activity or is it primarily onshore within the wind market?
spk05: Yeah, so right now we actually had a pretty good quarter this quarter with wind. As you know, it's closely tied to the production tax credits and what's going on there. And so we did have a positive quarter. It is all domestic wind, so there's not a lot of international exposure. We've looked into that, and we just can't. And we've talked to other companies about that. partnerships, joint ventures, and things like that to get some exposure there. It just doesn't make a lot of sense for that. We do think that, and we've got exposure to really the primary three OEMs that probably represent 90% of the wind market. And, you know, One of them is really bullish on wind in 2024. One of them is kind of flat. And one of them is, hey, it could be a rougher year. So we're, you know, we're, I think, net-net forecasting probably some kind of modest uptick next year for wind. But we think the real kind of the stronger recovery for wind is probably going to be 2025.
spk07: Great. One moment for our next question.
spk06: Our next question comes from Gary Gibbs with Northland Securities. Your line is open.
spk04: Hey, good morning, Jonathan, Aaron. How are you doing? Morning, Gary.
spk08: Good morning.
spk04: Hey, Greg. How are you? I'm good. I'm good. Thanks. Hey, I wonder if you could discuss the assumptions that go into the updated outlook. You know, is that just maybe the assumption that rates remain stable, kind of like we've seen in the most recent quarters?
spk05: Yeah, I mean, I think if you look at it, so last quarter we took guide down to, I'll just use the lower point of the guide, to 200, so 200 to 210. So in a 200, we had, as we talked about this quarter, between a softer equipment market, we had about a $2.5 million headwind there. And then we had about $5 million given the diesel volatility. So those were both things that we hadn't kind of factored in. when we provided that 200 to 210 guide. So you get $7.5 million of headwind there. Used truck market is not going to improve. So we don't think in Q4 we're going to see any kind of gain on sale. So you kind of approximate the same headwind, kind of 2.5. So you're kind of going, okay, well, 200 feels like 190, right, if you take off that kind of $10 million in kind of totality. So 2.5 and 2.5 from the equipment market, 5 from fuel. And so it kind of feels like that's direction where we're going. And, you know, as we think about the last two months of the year, you know, we think that the rates are going to fall with normal seasonality that we experienced at this time of the year. For us, the big question and why there's that little bit of tweaking between 185 and 190 versus the kind of quick bridge I just gave you from 190 to 200, it's really, I think, about how, you know, how productive – the LP and the owner-operators are those last couple months. And, you know, do they show up for work? They're independent contractors, as you appreciate. And so it's, okay, do they take the rest of the year off? Do they come and say, look, I haven't hit my target income for the year, so I'm going to work hard, work through the holidays and get it done? Or are we just going to say, hey, look, it's been a tough year. We'll start over next year. So I think that's the little bit of the hedge that we have in there with that 185 to 190.
spk04: Great, extremely helpful. And then, you know, I wanted to just follow up on, you know, the integration process of the OPCOs. You know, where do we stand with that? Do you expect to see, you know, continued improvements there? Would you say largely complete? I'm just curious your thoughts on how maybe integration will turn going forward.
spk05: Yeah, no, the integrations are going well. You know, we obviously mentioned that on today's call. We have 10 million earmarked an integration benefit next year that we feel very, very good about. Some have gone really well, some we've learned some lessons, but they've ended up in a really good spot. And I think the organization is really finally starting to understand and embrace and appreciate the shift from the old mindset of focus on top line growth for EBITDA and really starting to embrace, look, The investors, they're focused on you're taking top line and you're turning it into cash and how much cash can we generate, right? And then using that to delever the company and drive the EPS growth in the business. So we've spent a lot of time talking to them about that. They're on board. They understand why we need to do it. And so the flywheel is catching. So we're encouraged about it and think, again, on the heels of next year's Transformation, we still think we have a lot of runway in business optimization after that.
spk04: Okay, makes sense. I guess lastly, you mentioned the launch of an entertainment division for hauling equipment for shows. Any other opportunities for commercial expansion into potentially new verticals or different ones that you have visibility on?
spk03: Yeah, we continue to like our growth on our logistics side. That's an area of focus for us. It's an area of strength. I mean, it grew 8% year over year. So we're looking to increase share of wallet with our customers and provide leverage our differentiated value proposition on the things that we can do, whether it be load, unload, planning, logistics, warehousing. We're looking to grow those areas with our customers, and so we're always looking for new opportunities.
spk05: Yeah, we're evaluating specialty chemicals. It's down right now, as is life sciences and pharma. So we're looking at, hey, is this a good entry point into both of those? We really like what's going on in Mexico. And the opportunity there, we have a couple terminals located in that Laredo area. So we've got a lot of customers. And with the kind of nearshoring trend and Mexico surpassing surpassing China earlier this year from kind of an import standpoint. We think there's a lot of runway there. And then, you know, has waste, has map business. There's a lot of opportunities. We kind of block in the western part of the United States. So there's a number of things that we're looking at and focusing on and trying to figure out when to pull the trigger.
spk04: Great. Good to hear. Thanks for asking.
spk07: Absolutely. And I'm not showing any further questions this time. I'd like to turn the call back over to Jonathan for any closing remarks.
spk05: Thank you, Kevin. We are proud of the way our team members continue to strive for excellence in our operations and for our customers. We are focused on driving profitability in our operations and are weighing the volatility of earnings resulting from our current profile of lanes, subverticals, and operating companies. Finally, we continue to view Dasky as the premier opportunity in the truckload space. Thanks to our mix of defensive and growth attributes, which have enabled us to increase earnings throughout the cycles, regardless of when the up cycle starts. When freight demand improves, we believe the Dasky story will become even more compelling to investors as we continue to strengthen our balance sheet and realize organic and inorganic opportunities through our continuously improving One Dasky platform. Thank you.
spk07: Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's presentation. You may now disconnect and have a wonderful day.
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