Eagle Bulk Shipping Inc.

Good day and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Eagle Bulk Shipping second quarter earnings call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speaker's presentation, there will be a question and answer session. To ask a question during the session, you'll need to press star 1 1 on your telephone. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Gary Vogel, CEO of Eagle Bulk Shipping.

Thank you, and good morning, and our apologies for the technical difficulties. I'd like to welcome everyone to Eagle Bulk's second quarter 2022 earnings call. To supplement our remarks today, I would encourage participants to access the slide presentation that is available on our website at eagleships.com. Please note that part of our discussion today will include forward-looking statements. These statements are not guarantees of future performance and are inherently subject to risk and uncertainties. You should not place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements. Please refer to our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission for a more detailed discussion of the risks and uncertainties that may have a direct bearing on our operating results, our performance, and our financial condition. Our discussion today also includes certain non-GAAP financial measures, including adjusted net income, EBITDA, adjusted EBITDA, and TCE. Please refer to the appendix in the presentation and our earnings release filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission for more information concerning non-GAAP financial measures and a reconciliation to the most comparable GAAP financial measures. Please turn to slide six. Before we get into discussing the quarter, I'd like to take this opportunity to mention that our thoughts and prayers remain with all those affected by the war in Ukraine, including our Ukrainian seafarers who maintain their steadfast dedication and commitment to Eagle while being so far from their homeland and their loved ones. As we indicated on our last call, we've taken steps to provide extra support and assistance to them and to their families during this difficult time. From a market perspective, the wars disrupted typical trade patterns and altered demand as cargoes are being sourced from and sent to alternative regions, something we'll address later in the call. For Q2, we were able to capitalize on the market volatility and due to the efforts of our team, we're able to achieve our best ever quarterly results with net income coming in at $94.5 million or $7.27 per share basic. Adjusting for non-cash mark-to-market gains on derivative hedges, net income came in at $81.6 million, or $6.28 per share. As part of our ongoing fleet renewal strategy, we sold the motor vessel Cardinal, a 2004-built Supermax, and the oldest vessel in Eagle's fleet just ahead of our statutory dry dock. The transaction is expected to close later this month. Performer for this sale, our fleet totals 52 ships, averaging about 9.6 years of age, with 90% being fitted with scrubbers, which continues to offer Eagle a competitive advantage. Please turn to slide seven. Our record results, driven by our strong top line performance, generated a net TC of $30,207 per day. This represents an increase of 10% quarter-on-quarter and an outperformance against our benchmark index of approximately $2,500, or 9%. As we look forward to the third quarter, we fixed approximately 72% of our owned available days for the third quarter at a net TC of $29,024, indicating a significant outperformance against the BSI. Although we remain constructive on the market, we believe volatility will remain elevated in the near term. As such, We've taken a more conservative approach on coverage for the balance of the year and going into 2023. As you can denote from yesterday's press release, as of June 30th, we've sold BSI FFAs for the fourth quarter, totaling almost 40% of our owned available days at an average level of $22,322. It's worth noting that the FFA values I'm talking about are based on a non-scrubber fitted Supermax. We believe this approach is prudent given the current market volatility as well as varying macroeconomic forecasts. We also continue to charter out ships on a selective basis on a longer period as well. As an example, just last week we fixed a scrubber fitted Ultramax out for a minimum of 12 months starting in October at $25,000 gross TCE per day. This strategy utilizing both FFAs and ships has proven to be an effective part of our dynamic approach to fleet management. The fixed revenues derived from our FFAs and physical charters, combined with earnings from fuel spreads, help to provide surety of revenue streams and bodes well for strong TCE performance through the balance of the year. Please turn to slide eight. Given the inherent high operating leverage in our business, robust revenue in Q2 led to record operating performance with adjusted EBITDA coming in at $102.6 million after adjusting for the unrealized P&L impact of our hedges and certain other non-cash items included in GNA. Our trailing 12-month EBITDA run rate is now $370 million, implying a very modest EV EBITDA multiple of just 2.5. On the back of this significant cash generation, our financial profile continues to improve with net leverage estimating at around 18 percent. Please turn to slide nine. Asset price performance has been fantastic over the past 18 months, with 10-year-old Supermax vessels more than doubling in value. Given the significant elevation of values and a recent correction in spot rates, as well as the macroeconomic landscape, S&P activity has slowed down somewhat with prices plateauing. This notwithstanding, we remain constructive on the market with asset prices in the medium term, given the positive supply-demand dynamic, which we'll address later in the call. I would now like to turn the call over to Frank, who will review our financial performance.

Thank you, Gary. Please turn to slide 11 for a summary of our second quarter financial results. PCE revenues totaled $138.2 million in Q2. The significant increase in market rates along with the increase in available days drove our top line growth versus prior quarter. Net income for Q2 was $94.5 million. Earnings per share for the second quarter was $7.27 on a basic basis. On a diluted basis, which includes shares related to the convertible bond, EBS came in at $5.77 for the quarter. Adjusted net income, which excludes non-cash unrealized gains and derivatives, came in at $81.6 million for the second quarter, or $6.28 on a basic basis. On a diluted basis, adjusted EBS came in at $4.98 for the quarter. Our adjusted EBITDA record result for Q2 is $102.6 million, 21% higher than prior quarter. Let's now please turn to slide 12 for an overview of our balance sheet and liquidity. Total cash at the end of Q2 was $141.5 million, an increase of $57.9 million as compared to Q1. The significant increase in the company's Q2 cash balance was driven by our strong operating results, offset in part by repayments of $12.5 million of debt vessel improvements, and a Q1 dividend. Total liquidity came in at $241.5 million at the end of Q2. Total liquidity is comprised of total cash of $141.5 million and $100 million of a fully undrawn revolving credit facility. It is important to note that we own three unencumbered vessels, which provide us with additional flexibility to increase our liquidity. In addition, the Cardinal is now classified as a vessel held for sale. We expect that vessel to be delivered to her new owner in August, generating approximately $15.5 million in cash. Total debt at the end of Q2 was $376.8 million, a decrease of $12.5 million as a result of the quarterly repayment of the Ultraco debt facility. We entered into interest rate swaps around the time of our global refi in early October 2021. to fix interest rate exposures on the term loan. As a result of these swaps, which averaged 87 basis points, the company's interest rate exposure is fully fixed, insulating us from the adverse impact of rising interest rates. Please now turn to slide 13 for an overview of our cash flows from operations. Net cash provided by operating activities was 98 million in Q2. The chart highlights the timing-driven variability that working capital introduces to cash from ops as depicted by the differences between the dark blue bars, which are reported cash from ops, and the light blue bars, which strip out changes in operating assets and liabilities, primarily working capital. As the chart demonstrates, the volatility caused by working capital largely evens out over time. The differences between the two bars in Q2 can be explained primarily by the increases in the value of receivables and inventories on both higher market values, market rate values, and bunker prices. Our receivable collection is outstanding as reflected in the company's robust cash generation and an overall strong cash conversion cycle. Please turn to slide 14 for a Q2 cash walk. The chart at the top of the slide lays out the increase in the company's cash balance during Q2. The revenue and operating expenditures bars are a simple look at the operations, with the net of these two bars coming in at $103 million, the same as our adjusted EBITDA results. The dividend and debt service bars, which can be found further to the right, explain most of the remaining Q2 activity. The chart at the bottom of the slide similarly covers the cumulative cash movements for the first two quarters of 2022. Let's now turn to slide 15 for our cash break-even per ship per day. Cash break-even per ship per day came in at $11,741 for the second quarter. The quarter-on-quarter decrease of $1,550 is due to lower vessel operating costs, dry docking, G&A, and interest expense. Vessel expenses, or OPEX, came in at $5,584 per ship per day in Q2, $237 lower than prior quarter. The decrease was primarily due to lower repairs and storage expenses. This notwithstanding, we continue to face COVID-related costs as well as general inflationary pressures. Dry docking came in at $1,104 per ship per day in Q2, $1,155 lower than prior quarter, as we completed dry docks for three vessels during the quarter. We have also made advanced payments in the quarter ahead of Q3 dry docks. Cash G&A came in at $1,718 per ship per day in Q2, down $78 from Q1. It is worth noting that our G&A per ship calculation is based solely on our own vessels, whereas we operate a larger fleet, which includes our chartered-in tonnage. If we were to include the chartered-in days in our calculation, G&A per shift per day would improve by $329 to $1,389 for the quarter. Cash interest expense came in at $754 per shift per day in Q2, $51 lower than prior quarter as we realized an increase in interest income due to rising interest rates and our increasing cash balance. Cash debt principal payments came in at $2,581 per ship per day in Q2. Looking ahead, we expect the following per ship per day in Q3. OPEX should come in at around $5,750. Dry dock to decline to about $300 on significantly lower dry dock activity. GNA is expected to come in at circa $1,750. Again, it's worth noting the figure would be about $300 lower if we were to include chartered-in ships. Cash interest expense is expected to remain steady at circa $750. Cash debt amortization is expected to remain at $2,581 per ship per day. This concludes my comments. I will now turn the call back to Gary.

Thank you, Frank. Please turn to slide 17. Year-to-date supermaxes continue to outpace all other dry bulk segments, with the BSI currently averaging over 26,000, which notably is on par to last year's stellar performance. Also, as mentioned earlier on the call, freight volatility has increased in recent months due to the effects of the continued war in Ukraine and the macroeconomic environment. Notwithstanding lower dry bulk volumes, led by a lack of cargoes from Ukraine, substitution of Black Sea grain exports, and an increase in European coal imports had led to a meaningful increase in ton miles, which has been positive for fleet utilization and in turn supportive of rates. Congestion has had a mixed effect, with northern European ports struggling to absorb the large increase in coal imports. European coal imports came in 72% higher for the second quarter as compared to the same period last year. Concurrently, we've witnessed the decrease in vessel congestion in China with the easing of COVID-related restrictions, combined with muted short-term import demand, particularly with respect to iron ore and coal. Separately, Fed tightening and the expectation for further hikes led to a sharp sell-off in commodities in early June, which in turn impacted sentiment. With these disparate factors at work and being in the middle of the summer period, the BSI has traded down to under 20,000 per day, While well off recent highs, this is quite strong by historical standards and about $9,000 above our cash break-even cost and doesn't include revenues from scrubbers and our operating activities. With China slowly reopening and as stimulus measures begin to roll out, we believe we could see a meaningful recovery in manufacturing activity and, in turn, dry bulk demand. A significant positive for rates as we head into the fourth quarter a quarter historically supported as well by the North American grain harvest. Please turn to slide 18. Fuel prices continue to move higher in Q2, with HSFO and VLSFO averaging $683 and $911 per ton, respectively. The spread between HSFO and VLSFO prices remain very volatile, hitting a high of more than $370 per ton on average, in the quarter and then averaging 228 up to 21% compared to the first quarter. On an illustrative basis, given our fleet scrubber position, we would realize a benefit of close to $75 million on an annualized basis based on fuel spreads of $316 per ton. Please turn to slide 19. Net fleet supply growth slowed in Q2. A total of 96 dry bulk new build vessels were delivered during the period. down 25% year-on-year. Partially offsetting this, eight vessels were scrapped during the same period. As we've mentioned previously, despite record scrap prices, the low level of vessel scrapping is not surprising given the strength in the underlying spot market. Positively, this continues to increase the number of older ships that will inevitably need to be recycled in the future. In terms of forward supply growth, the overall dry bulk order book stands at a historically low level of just 72% of the on-the-water fleet. For 2022, dry bulk net fleet growth is expected to be 2.7%, which would be down around 25% as compared with last year. Looking further ahead, 2023 net fleet growth is projected to drop further to just 0.7%, driven by muted deliveries and an increase in scrapping volumes. A total of 53 dry bulk ships were ordered during Q2, down about 70 percent compared to the prior quarter and less than half of the average over the last five years of roughly 110 ships per quarter. It's worth noting that the vast majority of ships being ordered today will only be delivered in 2024 and beyond. Although we expect some level of ordering to continue, We still believe it will remain low for reasons we have articulated a number of times before. Please turn to slide 20. In terms of macro demand, the IMF has lowered their GDP growth estimate for this year to 3.2%, down 40 basis points as compared to the forecast as of April. After reaching a multi-year high last year, dry bulk trade demand growth is expected to be flat in 2022. However, Taking into consideration the significant ton mile effect I mentioned before caused by the war in Ukraine, it increases to positive 1.2%. For 2023, current market estimates are pegging dry bulk trade demand growth to increase to 2% versus 2022 on a core basis, excluding any ton mile effect. Please turn to slide 21. Breaking down dry bulk demand into its primary components, it's evident that the growth fundamentals for minor bulk has been and continues to be superior as compared to major bulks. Given our exclusive focus on the midsize segment, our cargo mix typically consists of between 60% and 70% of minor bulks. For 2022, minor bulk trade demand is expected to reach 1.1% on a core basis, as compared to the major bulks, which is forecasted to decrease by 0.8%. This is the primary reason why supermaxes have been the best-performing asset class this year, outpacing CAPEs by $8,000 per day, even though they're about one-third the size and cost about 40% less. Although near-term market volatility is elevated, we remain optimistic about the medium-term prospects for dry bulk, given the positive forces benefiting demand combined with a record low order book and a number of emissions regulations that will come into force over the next couple of years. We believe these dynamics will further improve the supply side in terms of fleet utilization and scrapping. Given our outlook, the strong results to date, and consistent with our stated capital allocation strategy, EGLE's Board of Directors declared a second quarter cash dividend of $2.20 per share, equating to just over 30% of net income. This is the fourth consecutive quarterly dividend since we adopted our dividend policy last October and brings total shareholder distributions to $8.25 per share. In closing, we remain energized about EGLE's leadership position within the midsize dry bulk segment, and we're looking forward to continuing our strong level of execution to benefit our shareholders. With that, I'd like to turn the call over to the operator and answer any questions you may have. Operator?

As a reminder, if you'd like to ask a question at this time, please press star 1 1 on your telephone. Again, that is star 1 1 to ask a question.

Our first question comes from Omar Nocta with Jefferies.

Your line is now open.

Hi. Thank you. Hi there. Good morning, guys. Good morning. Welcome back. Thanks, Gary. I wanted to ask about the market. You laid out some of the broader headwinds that we've seen with economic uncertainty, reduced congestion and whatnot, kind of going back to early June. I guess maybe recently we've seen some more pronounced weakness just maybe the past week or two. Has anything changed or is there any maybe shift in whether it's charter appetite or cargo availability? Has something changed in the past couple of weeks that makes it more pronounced or is it Or is it more of maybe just a gradual snowball effect of what you talked about that dated back to maybe June?

Yeah, I don't think there's any wholesale event that I would point to here. I mean, first of all, we are right in the middle of summer, which historically is a weak period, particularly for the midsize. And, you know, the summer market in the Atlantic particularly is often buoyed by cargos out of the Black Sea. And, you know, we're seeing virtually no grain, of course, from Ukraine. And so that's having an impact on that market overall. And then, as I mentioned, you know, we've seen an unwinding of congestion in China. So I think, you know, it's volatility, right? We're at similar levels in the early part of this year. So, you know, we just – this is – You know, part of what we expect is a little more, you know, significant of all right now than in the midsize segment. But like I said, we were here earlier in the year and the fundamentals, we think, are quite promising, you know, for the latter part of the year. And especially, you know, Brazil is starting to export corn now and the North American grain harvest coming on, which will you know, also be a longer ton mile event this year than typically because of the dislocation of cargoes from Ukraine. So, you know, we think it's, let's call it, you know, it's an August effect along with some other overlays, and I'll leave it at that.

Got it. Thanks for that, Tyler. And I guess, you know, you highlighted some of the um you know the ffa contract you've entered into and in that time charter i think you said it was last week that you signed the the one year that kicks off in october at uh 25 000. yeah the the clearly obviously very strong rate um and it it sounds like that was even a premium to maybe what the broad prevailing pc uh averages were a week ago the i guess I know it's difficult to answer, but how repeatable do you think that is, say, in today's market? I gauge that maybe the rate may be off from that 25, but would you be able to still secure one year today? I'm comparing it to last week, so it's very, very short term, but just wondering if there's any maybe wholesale change in market dynamics over the past couple of weeks or

Yeah, look, the market's off over the last week, and I think if you look at the change in the forward market, not the index, but the forward market, you'd probably see a similar impact, not exactly dollar for dollar, but on a period rate as well, right? I mean, these trade similarly, not exactly. Of course, there's dislocations, but the market is off over the last week and a half. Having said that, you know, that charter, that one-year charter, There's a number of things at play there. That's a scrubber-fitted ship, right? And scrubbers right now at spot rates are, you know, for an Ultramax are earning around $4,000 a day across the fleet, and that's obviously meaningful. And again, it's an Ultramax versus a Supermax, which is the FFA rates that we're looking on. So, you know, when we go out and when we relet ships, right, it's not like you just, you know, wake up in the morning and do it. It's based on relationships and developing it. So, you know, like I said, it would be down slightly today. But, you know, we pick our moments when we think there's better value in the physical market than the FFA market. And if there wasn't an opportunity, but we wanted more cover, we go out and sell an FFA. And then we can reverse that, right? If we have someone comes and wants a ship, you know, next week, we might buy back the FFA and re-let the ship. And that's a dynamic part of our strategy that I think is unique and differentiated and enables us to add value and and achieve these TCEs that, frankly, for a pure Ultramax, Supermax, Ultramax player with half of our fleet in each segment, I think is pretty demonstrative.

Yeah, definitely. Thanks, Gary. One final follow-up question here, just on the scrubbers. Clearly, it's been a home run, and there's been some talk. I'm not sure how substantial or significant it is, but there's some talk that maybe some owners are looking to retrofit scrubbers on their ship that they didn't do back in 2018, 2019. You guys have been in a unique spot really with maybe at most 10% of the Supra Ultra Fleet having scrubbers. Do you think or have you heard of any plans from ship owners that will see another wave of scrubber investment here as we look ahead?

Yeah, so the answer is I think you'll see some retrofitting and you definitely see, you know, scrubbers on most new buildings coming out. Having said that, to your point, right, a very small percentage of the midsize segment and the payback is slightly longer. You know, being first and being there at the start was really an imperative for us. We have three non-scrubber fitted super maxes, sister ships to other vessels that are all scrubber fitted. We've looked at it and decided at this point we're not doing it. The lead time, the off-hire time, of course, off-hire today is significantly more expensive than it was when we retrofitted our fleet in 2019. So I think you'll see some uptick, but I think it'll be focused on the larger sizes from the economics aspect of it. But I don't think it'll be meaningful. I think that the mid-size segment will continue, I think, as far as I can see. to be significantly a VLSFO burning fleet for the future.

Understood. Thanks, Gary, for that. I'll turn it over. Okay.

Thank you.

Our next question comes from the line of POFRET with Alliance Global Partners.

Your line is now open.

good morning gary good morning costa good morning frank um quick follow-up on you know if you do see scrubber retrofits on some of the fleet i mean that implies that downtime is going to be more significant in 2023 or whenever that happens too um just a quick question on your hedge book is there anything in particular that triggered you to double you know almost double your fork you know your hedge book in the fourth quarter and then secondly do you have anything in you know, out into the 23 timeframe. And then thirdly, you talked about how that's just basically on the BSI index. Can you help us adjust for your fleet to get to sort of a time charter equivalent for what you've hedged into the fourth quarter, you know, net to Eagle?

Sure. So let me start with helping you look at the, you know, the FFA against I mean, as I mentioned to one of Omar's questions, right, our fleet is about half Ultramax, half Supermax. You know, every ship has a value relative to the index ship, which is a specification of a Japanese 58. So if you have a Japanese 58 non-scorbofitted vessel, you know, the FFA is a pretty good proxy for what that ship is worth in the open market on any given day. So Ultramaxes in general are worth about 10% to 12%. more than the index ship. There are some that are even better and some that are worse, but I would use, you know, 10, 12%. I mean, you can look at our slide around fuel spreads and what that means in terms of scrubber. You know, right now, probably $4,000 a day. You know, the forward curve is down from that. So, you know, how much you are able to glean from a charter is somewhere probably south of 4,000, but you can... you know, you obviously as an owner are looking to maximize as much as possible. And so that's how you kind of get to it. And then from an Eagle standpoint, our ability to outperform the index also based on our methodology and trading platform. So, you know, I'd say right now, just, you know, roughly, you're probably looking at about $2,600, $2,700 a day premium for a scrubber on a midsize ship to add on to a period of of one year based on the forward curves, you know, quick math. You know, in terms of our forward, you know, we only report our FFAs as of June 30th, and we don't include them in our coverage, you know, when we say we're 72% covered at any given time, because our FFA position is dynamic. As I mentioned, we may sell an FFA and buy it back, so we only report it once a quarter, and we leave it at that because, but as I mentioned in our remarks, we are We do have, are building some coverage into next year. You know, next year still trades extremely backward dated to the index today. I mean, it's around 13,500 today, you know, for next year, which, you know, aside from the market being off significantly today, we just find that, you know, severely backward dated. And we're not looking to hedge our fleet at those kinds of numbers. in general, right? There may be an opportunity against the ship we charter in or something like that. So we've been focused more on physical for next year and also focused on, you know, let's say increasing our hedge position this year where there's not as much of a backwardation. And as you can see, you know, as of June 30, as I mentioned, almost 40% of our fleet covered, you know, just on FFAs. Hopefully that's helpful.

No, very helpful. And then you had a pretty significant cash build in the second quarter. That should continue in the third and fourth quarters. Looking at your cash build, the decline in net debt, potentially being net debt zero by the end of next year, how do you look at capital allocation in the context of the convert coming up in 2024 and then also the dividend growth you know, is likely to, well, it's 220 now, it's likely to decline. And I was just wondering, you know, sort of how you're looking at that formula in the context of maybe allocating some cash to support the dividend to keep it closer to $2 over the course of each quarter. Is that something you're thinking about right now? Or is that something that, you know, the board's going to decide on a quarter to quarter basis?

So let me start by saying I'm not really focused on what the dividend will be next quarter. I'm focused on maximizing our revenue during the quarter so that it's an easy decision when we get there. But in all seriousness, I think if you look back at past actions, our board decided to pay in excess of 30% last quarter and brought us to $2. What they've done in the past is not a guarantee, but I think it shows that the willingness of our board to allocate capital when they feel it's appropriate, whether that's from non-cash adjustments on FFAs or what have you. And as you mentioned, we've had a significant cash build. You also mentioned the convert, and that's something that we've talked about. At some point, of course, that will likely be converted, whether we use cash or shares or a combination of both. you know, is in the company's options. So building cash around that we think makes sense. And as we get closer to maturity, which is now, you know, less than two years out, you know, the cost for an early redemption goes down because of the Black-Scholes modeling, you know, behind the pricing. So, you know, we think building some cash around that makes sense. And, you know, nothing wrong with having cash on the balance sheet from an optionality standpoint as well.

Great. Thanks for your time.

Thank you.

As a reminder, if you'd like to ask a question, that's star 1-1. I'm showing no further questions at this time. I'd like to turn the call back to management for closing remarks.

Thank you, operator. We have nothing further but like to thank everyone for joining us and wish everyone a good day and a good weekend. Thank you.

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.