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spk04: Good afternoon. Thank you for attending today's EverQuote fourth quarter and full year 2022 earnings call. My name is Megan and I'll be your moderator for today's call. All lines will be muted during the presentation portion of the call with an opportunity for questions and answers at the end. I would now like to pass the conference over to Brinley Johnson of Blue Shirt Group.
spk01: Brinley, please go ahead. Thank you. Good afternoon and welcome to EverQuote's fourth quarter 2022 earnings call. We'll be discussing the results announced in our press release issued today after the market closed. With me on the call this afternoon is Jamie Mendel, EverQuote's Chief Executive Officer, and John Widener, Chief Financial Officer of EverQuote. During the call, we'll make statements related to our business that may be considered forward-looking statements under federal securities laws, including statements concerning our financial guidance for the first quarter and full year 2023, our growth strategy and our plans to execute on our growth strategy, key initiatives, including our direct-to-consumer agencies, Our investments in the business, the growth levers we expect to drive our business, our ability to maintain existing and acquire new customers, our expectations regarding recovery of the auto insurance industry, and other statements regarding our plans and prospects. Our looking statements may be identified with words and phrases such as we expect, we believe, we intend, we anticipate, we plan, may, upcoming, and similar words and phrases. These statements reflect our views only as of today and should not be considered our views as of any subsequent date. We specifically disclaim any obligation to update or revise these forward-looking statements except as required by law. Forward-looking statements are not promises or guarantees of future performance and are subject to a variety of risks and uncertainties that could cause the actual results to differ materially from our expectations. For discussion of material risks and other important factors that could cause our actual results to differ materially from our expectations, please refer to those contained under the heading Risk Factors in our most recent quarterly report on Form 10-Q or annual report on Form 10-K. that are in a file with the Securities and Exchange Commission and available on the Investor Relations section of our website at investor.everquote.com and on the S&P's website at sec.gov. Finally, during the course of today's call, we referred to certain non-GAAP financial measures which we believe are helpful to investors. A reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP measures was included in the press release we issued after the close of Market Today, which is available on the Investor Relations section of our website at investors.everquote.com. And with that, I'll turn it over to Jamie.
spk10: Thank you, Brinley, and thank you all for joining us today. 2022 proved to be a formidable year as our team's resolve and our business model's resilience were tested by the difficult auto insurance market, which caused carriers to dramatically pull back customer acquisition spend while they worked to increase rates. Against this backdrop, we delivered full-year revenue and variable marketing margin, or VMM, of $404.1 million and $128.3 million, respectively. and we generated adjusted EBITDA of $5.9 million. Throughout the year, our team continued to demonstrate its agility and strength by adjusting operations to a rapidly changing environment to deliver solid financial results. We implemented disciplined expense management to deliver adjusted EBITDA profitability for 2022, exceeding the high end of our original adjusted EBITDA guidance despite significantly lower revenue. as carriers pulled back on marketing spend more than initially expected. Our customer acquisition team swiftly recalibrated to frequent and large reductions in carrier demand, and we drove higher efficiency in our resilient agent distribution channels, enabling us to achieve a record annual level of VMM as a percentage of revenue. Turning to 2023, We continue to see auto insurance carriers raising rates to restore adequate profitability as inflationary loss pressures persist. In Q1, thus far we have seen a significant sequential increase in auto enterprise demand driven by a limited subset of carriers. While we remain optimistic about demand improving over the course of the year, the exact timing and shape of recovery remains uncertain. Amidst the continued volatility, in 2023 we will work to restore revenue growth, bring profitability back to pre-downturn levels, and generate positive cash flow. Despite the unsettled nature of the past 18 months, Everquote enters 2023 in a stronger position than ever before. We continue to make steady progress in a market opportunity that remains enormous. Insurance distribution and advertising is a $170 billion market. Unlike nearly any other vertical market of scale, insurance distribution still lacks a clear digital category leader. At the same time, data continues to point to a more digital future. Internet shopping is still growing. Insurance carriers are steadily building digital competencies and shifting distribution spend online, with upstart digital first carriers advancing that curve more quickly. And applications to deploy new technology, machine learning, and AI to solve industry challenges are becoming more accessible. Insurance distribution is ripe for disruption. As a market leader, EverQuote continues working to redefine the category of insurance distribution for the digital age. Our mission is to make it easy for customers to protect life's most important assets, their family, health, property, and future. In pursuit of this mission, our vision is to become the largest online source of insurance policies by using data, technology, and knowledgeable advisors to make insurance simpler, more affordable, and personalized. What makes us uniquely positioned to define this category? I would point to two important competitive differentiators. First, EverQuote continues to be a data and technology company first. This element of our DNA has enabled us to scale our customer acquisition platform into one of the largest sources of online insurance policies in the US. Our strength continues to build and compound as we amass more data, and deploy machine learning across more aspects of our business over time, ranging from traffic bidding to experience personalization to product recommendations. This will make our marketplace both more effective for consumers and providers and more efficient for EverQuote. Second, EverQuote has assembled a one-of-a-kind combination of insurance distribution assets, which enables access to a comprehensive set of insurance products across major personal lines. Carriers provide access to their insurance products through different channels. Some distribute directly to consumers, others through captive agents, and others through independent agents. Some carriers use multiple channels, depending on their preference for a digital sales funnel or a telephonic one. EverQuote has built a hybrid marketplace which supports all carriers in their pursuit of profitable growth. Those who distribute digitally and direct to consumer can participate in our digital marketplace. Those who distribute exclusively through captive agents can plug into our local agent offerings. And carriers who distribute through independent agents can appoint our direct-to-consumer agency, Eversurance, to access our shoppers. From the consumer's perspective, this hybrid marketplace enables EverQuote to offer a comprehensive set of insurance options, resulting in each consumer being more likely to find the right product for them delivered in their preferred manner. We will focus increasingly on leveraging these distribution assets to build a unique and differentiated insurance shopping destination for consumers, through which they can access the industry's widest set of insurance products across major personal lines, receive personalized recommendations on the right products for them, and easily access advice from knowledgeable experts as needed. Success will set the stage for deeper and more enduring customer relationships, through which we will manage consumers' insurance needs across multiple products and over time. To be clear, we are still in the early stages of this journey, but we have now cleared a challenging and important milestone of assembling and integrating requisite foundational assets. We still have much work to do to achieve our vision. That said, we believe that EverQuote is the only company with the assets, team, and conviction to deliver the type of insurance shopping experience that we believe the industry including its carriers, agents, and consumers, ultimately needs to bring the full potential of the digital age to insurance buying and selling. Our team is energized by the opportunity ahead, and we look forward to sharing our progress this year as we continue to build the industry's preeminent one-stop insurance destination. Now I'll turn the call over to John to discuss our financial results.
spk07: Thank you, Jamie, and good afternoon, everyone. I'll start by discussing our financial results for the fourth quarter, and the full year 2022, and then provide guidance for the first quarter and full year of 2023. Total revenue for Q4 was $88.3 million, a decline of 13% year-over-year and within our guidance range provided last quarter. For the full year, revenues increased 3% to $404.1 million. Revenue from our auto insurance vertical decreased 5% year-over-year to $67.2 million in Q4 and 2% to $324.4 million for the full year of 2022. The decline in revenue in Q4 was attributable to a 21% decrease in consumer monetization year over year, reflecting the impact of lower carrier demand as the result of the industry-wide auto insurance downturn and a further pullback in reaction to Hurricane Ian losses. partially offset by a 9 percent increase in consumer volume. Revenue from our other insurance verticals, which includes home and renters, life and health insurance, decreased 33 percent year-over-year to $21.1 million for the fourth quarter and represented 24 percent of revenue. For the full year, revenue from our other insurance verticals decreased 9 percent year-over-year to $79.7 million. While down on a year-over-year basis, Q4 revenue from our other insurance verticals increased 40% sequentially from Q3, reflecting the seasonal contribution from our health insurance vertical during the annual open enrollment period. Within health DTCA, revenue exceeded our internal forecast due to higher sales conversion and efficiency and improved consumer targeting, but declined from the prior year as expected due to a lower number of agents as part of our plan moderation and agent growth and emphasis on optimizing unit economics and cash usage. Variable marketing margin, or VMM, defined as revenue less advertising expense, was $29.1 million for the fourth quarter on the high end of our guidance range provided last quarter. Full year VMM decreased only slightly to $128.3 million. Despite lower monetization, variable marketing margin as a percentage of revenue was a record 32.9% for the fourth quarter and 31.7% for the full year. Though lower monetization generally places pressure on advertising margin, during this period, we have been able to realize margin expansion, a direct result of refinements in our use of data and technology to bid competitively for advertising in a less competitive advertising environment. Turning to our bottom line, GAAP net loss was $8.5 million for the fourth quarter and $24.4 million for the full year. Adjusted EBITDA was a positive $92,000 in the fourth quarter and $5.9 million for the full year. The result was within our guidance range provided last quarter and reflects our ability to manage our business for positive adjusted EBITDA even during the auto insurance downturn. Operating cash flow was a use of cash of $4.9 million for the fourth quarter, reflecting the offset of positive cash flow from our referral marketplace against the higher seasonal revenue contribution of our DTC agency, with its associated multi-year collection of policy sales commission revenue. We ended the year with cash and cash equivalents on the balance sheet of $30.8 million, and no debt outstanding on our $45 million debt facility. Coinciding with the filing of our 2022 10-K today, we've also filed an S3 universal shelf registration statement. With a healthy cash balance, ample borrowing capacity, and a plan to return to generating positive operating cash flow in 2023, We have no immediate plans to raise capital and are not dependent on doing so to run our business. The shelf registration statement provides us flexibility and access to raise capital over the next three years if we deem it necessary or if we identify compelling opportunities to deploy capital to improve the performance of our business. We view dislocation in the insure tech industry as having the potential to produce compelling acquisition opportunities in areas consistent with our vision and growth levers. And the shelf registration statement will provide us potential avenues for capital beyond our current balance sheet resources if those opportunities should emerge. Turning to our outlook, including an update on the market conditions within the auto insurance industry. We anticipate improving demand from our auto insurance carrier providers during the course of 2023. Auto insurance premium increases along with existing moderation in factors that drive claims losses are anticipated to improve financial performance for our auto insurance carriers and consequently their demand for new consumer acquisition. The timing of this improvement will differ among carriers. with those that increased rates more significantly and earlier in the downturn reaching rate adequacy sooner. Though there is uncertainty and many auto insurance carriers are still suffering an imbalance between premiums collected and claims paid, we expect gradual normalization of the market. With Q1, we've begun to see this initial improvement in demand from a limited subset of carriers. With demand improvement, We expect to return to revenue growth over the course of 2023 with improved VMM and adjusted EBITDA and positive operating cash flow for the full year. For Q1, we expect revenue to be between $101 and $105 billion, a year-over-year decrease of 7% at the midpoint. We expect variable marketing margin to be between 31.5 and $33.5 million, a year-over-year decrease of 5% at the midpoint. And we expect adjusted EBITDA to be between $2 and $4 million, a year-over-year increase of 24% at the midpoint. For the full year of 2023, we expect revenue to be between $420 and $435 million, a year-over-year increase of 6% at the midpoint. We expect variable marketing margin to be between $132 and $140 million, a year-over-year increase of 6% at the midpoint. And we expect adjusted EBITDA of between $7 and $13 million, a year-over-year increase of 69% at the midpoint. In summary, during the fourth quarter and full year 2022, diversity in distribution, disciplined execution and consumer acquisition and management of operating costs allowed us to mitigate the impact of the auto insurance pullback and continue to deliver positive adjusted EBITDA. As auto insurance demand returns, we expect to return to revenue growth with an emphasis on rapidly improving adjusted EBITDA and cash flow. Jamie and I will now answer your questions.
spk04: Thank you. If you would like to ask a question, please press star followed by 1 on your telephone keypad. If for any reason you would like to remove that question, please press star followed by 2. Again, to ask a question, press star 1. As a reminder, if you're using a speakerphone, please remember to pick up your handset before asking your question. We will pause here briefly as questions are registered. Our first question comes from the line of Michael Graham with Canaccord. Your line is now open.
spk03: Thank you, and thanks, guys, for sharing all this, and it's good to hear that you see the auto market improving throughout the course of the year. I just wanted to kind of drill down on that a little bit, and maybe you could just give a little more depth around what you're seeing from some of your major carrier customers. Do you have a feel for how many of them are getting closer to rate adequacy? And then can you just comment, as we get these new rates hitting, it seems like it could stimulate consumer shopping behavior even more when they sort of go to renew and they've got higher rates to deal with. So maybe just talk about how you're incorporating that potential dynamic into your expectations for the year.
spk10: Sure. Thanks, Mike. The year has started more or less as expected. I think our view is that Q4 was likely to be a trough period for us and that we'd see a bit of a step up or inflection in Q1. We have seen that occur. It is still relatively concentrated in terms of the increase in demand. And so we have seen a subset of carriers restoring healthier profitability and higher demand. And as a result, we've seen them step back into the marketplace in a more meaningful way, still state by state and segment by segment. And so I think there's reason for optimism in terms of starting from a good point and expecting that the year will build as other carriers achieve rate adequacy over the course of the year. The reality, if you look broadly across markets, the industry right now is that many carriers still have not achieved rate adequacy as of at least the latest data we have available which is q4 for many um in january for for at least one um and so it's still a bit of a mixed bag out there now they have all been taking rate even california is now allowing rate increases and so what we expect is that as these rates burn in You know, each month that passes, each quarter that passes, carriers will restore profitability in certain segments of the market. And as they do, they'll begin to lean back in in terms of their customer acquisition appetite. So, you know, not a big change from where we were last time we spoke. I think the expectation is we'll see a build over the course of 23 and probably the last leg of the recovery for some carriers will occur in 2024. In terms of shopping behavior, what you asked about is, in fact, what we would expect to happen, which is that as rate increases flow through, consumers will receive renewal notices at substantially higher premium than what they were paying previously. And that will trigger shopping behavior. And so we've seen that flow through the marketplace. Even in 2022, we saw it with elevated levels of consumer shopping behavior. persisting into 2023 and we would expect it to continue for as long as the rate cycle is in effect, which from where we sit today, you know, it's likely to extend into 2024.
spk03: Okay, that's really helpful. Thank you, Jamie. Welcome.
spk04: Thank you, Mr. Graham. Our next question comes from the line of Corey Carpenter with JP Morgan. Your line is now open.
spk05: Thanks for the questions. One for John and one for Jamie. Maybe, John, starting with you, just could you help us with what you're kind of baking into the guide from a recovery perspective and maybe to the extent you're willing to provide any color on auto versus non-auto growth expectations this year? And then, Jamie, could you just touch a bit on the presentation mentioned reaccelerating non-auto growth this year? Could you just talk about some of your initiatives there? Thank you. Sure. Thanks, Corey.
spk07: So included within our guide is first the environment that we're seeing now. And as Jamie mentioned, we're seeing a small subset of carriers that have obtained rate adequacy and are back in market acquiring consumers. So that's certainly baked in. And then in addition, a gradual increase in demand from other carriers as they reach rate adequacy. We see the rates that they've already taken burn into their book of business. and we see them start acquiring again. And then I would say kind of, you know, that is a gradual movement that we see going through the year, including into the back half of 23. And then I would say our range also includes the fact that, you know, there's a certain amount of uncertainty within the market, right? Some carriers are very much still struggling with the imbalance between, you know, premiums and claims. And so we've captured that. as well in our guide as well. There's a range there that allows for the fact that we're not, you know, we don't know with certainty what the recovery, what the slope will look like, or what the speed will look like. And so we've really, I would say, prudently kind of captured those scenarios in our guide. As we look at the breakdown, we certainly, you know, we talk a lot about autos. We also see non-auto growth. The other verticals also returning to growth. over the course of the year as well. So we are starting to gear up for growth across the board.
spk10: And Corey, to answer the second part of your question, you know, 2022, we really focused intensely on stabilizing the auto vertical. And, you know, as part of doing so, we had to apply an added level of, you know, rigor and discipline and expense management And, you know, unfortunately, that came at the expense of a certain amount of resourcing in our non-auto verticals. One example would be in the direct consumer agency where we entered the year last year with plans to grow agent headcount in the health and Medicare business. We made a decision in year to instead focus more heavily on driving up the unit efficiency of that part of the business. And, you know, we exited the year with the lower headcount than we started, and we're comfortable with that tradeoff. But it did come at the expense of some growth, and not exclusive to health and Medicare, but then the other verticals as well. So as we come in this year, we are planning for reacceleration. We have already sort of reallocated some dedicated resourcing into non-auto verticals. And as the auto business recovers, we will continue to reinforce that move because we continue to see just a huge amount of potential in the non-auto verticals and look forward to getting them back to growth mode.
spk00: Thank you, Mr. Carpenter.
spk04: Our next question comes from the line of Mayank Tandon with Needham. Your line is now open.
spk02: Thank you. Good evening. Congrats, Jamie and John. Good to hear that growth is inflecting higher. That's encouraging. I was going to just ask more around your expectations in terms of the court request and the revenue per court request. How are you thinking about that breakdown as you look at 2023?
spk07: Sure, Mayank.
spk02: I'll take that.
spk07: We see it as growth being fueled by a mix of monetization as well as traffic. As we already talked about, we think that the environment in which rates are increasing, that has always been for us the biggest catalyst for shopping within the marketplace is when a consumer opens the envelope on a renewal, sees a pretty dramatic increase in rates with carriers A lot of carriers having taken rate to the tune of mid-teens. That's pretty significant. So we think that drives consumer shopping. And industry-wide, we've started to see that in Q4 of this past year. In addition, we believe that also there's the opportunity for monetization increases. Initially, that doesn't mean necessarily that that is carriers bidding up, because there are really the early cohort of carriers that have obtain rate adequacy coming back to the marketplace. But there are opportunities for modernization, even with those early carriers. And that really is really twofold. It's carriers that are coming back to market and maybe are displacing a lower bid, not necessarily bidding up competitively. And then also it's the opportunity for us to increase the number of referrals per consumer. So as carriers, even the initial carriers come back into the marketplace, that can increase the number of monetization events that we have per consumer. So as a consumer is looking to get multiple quotes on a policy, our ability to monetize them multiple times and give them multiple quotes is directly related to the carriers that are in the marketplace. So as they come back, we have that opportunity to increase monetization. So as we look forward to 23, it is really a combination of balance kind of consumer volumes as well as additional monetization.
spk02: That's a very helpful context. And then I just wanted to add another question around seasonality. John, could you remind us of the seasonality, especially in auto, as we build out the rest of the year in terms of the revenue trajectory and, of course, also how that will square with your VMM and EBITDA outlook? Is it going to be fairly linear this year, just given? some of the trends, or should we expect the usual seasonality to play out in 2023 as well?
spk07: Yeah, so I would start by referring back to kind of the usual seasonality within auto, and that is, you know, a good strong Q1, usually followed by a slightly softer Q2 and a slightly stronger Q3, and then a pullback within auto as you come into Q4, both with the holiday season, consumers distracted by the holidays, as well as some of the carrier media spend that leaves the market in favor of retail spend. So that's the normal characteristics of kind of the seasonal pattern within auto. I think clearly this year you have the opportunity, especially when you look at the comp in Q4, to see something that contradicts that usual pattern that has some growth and some build. especially as we get through to the second half of the year. And then over that, you know, I would just overlay the fact that health and our DTCA offering has a bit of a different seasonal pattern. So if you look at our overall results, the health DTCA business has a stronger quarter, strongest quarter in Q4, and its second strongest quarter in Q1. with the lock-in period within health in Q2 and Q3. So we would expect, you know, within health a reduction in Q1 and then a softer period in Q2 and Q3 before returning to the health annual enrollment period and open enrollment period in Q4 for Medicare Advantage as well as for the under 65 health offerings.
spk02: That's very helpful. Good refresher for me. Thank you so much.
spk04: Thank you, Mr. Tandon. Our next question comes from the line of Ralph Shackert with William Blair. Your line is now open.
spk11: Good afternoon. Thanks for taking the question. EverQuote's business model has gone through these transitions historically where the carriers have taken rate, the marketplaces had to adjust, and then coming out of that, the business has seen pretty strong growth. Just curious if you could kind of rewind a little bit and maybe give us a little history lesson here as well as maybe the similarities that you're seeing now versus past cycles, any differences, but just curious what are your thoughts on that?
spk07: So I'll start it off, Ralph. So our last market that had some similarities here was back in 2000, 2016, 2017, in which there was a spike, a fairly sudden spike in claims losses for the auto carriers. And then as the carriers took rate during that period, we saw a very strong market for auto insurance demand into 2018 and 2019. I would say the differences between that experience and what we've seen recently are the fact that at that time, it wasn't very well understood exactly the dynamics that were happening to cause auto insurance claims to spike. I think in retrospect, there's a better understanding that it was probably mostly being caused by distracted driving and some cost to repair vehicles. I'd say the other major difference between that cycle and this one was the length and the severity. Clearly this cycle, this imbalance has been more severe than what we saw in 2016 and 17. So I think with this cycle you see something where every carrier is seeing the same thing, experiencing the same thing, which is they've seen claims losses increase not because of frequency but because of severity. the cost to repair and replace vehicles, as well as other factors. They have all started to react to that, albeit at different speeds and with different levels of rate increases, but they've all reacted to that. You've seen them all take a rate at this point. Some of that rate is burned into their book of business, earned in, and some has not yet. But you're seeing kind of the industry all react in a very similar way. probably with more consistency than what you saw in 16 and 17, and again, with more severity than what we saw in 16 and 17. For us, that reflected in our business in 2017 with a modest growth year. We grew 3% in 2017, but then set the stage for a healthy environment for us to execute in 2018 and 2019, and that's That's largely what we expect as we get through the back end of this imbalance as the carriers take that rate and also see that rate that they've already taken earn into their book of business and start getting reflected in their results in their combined ratios and start returning to focus on acquiring consumers.
spk10: Ralph, I think the only thing I'd add is You know, there's two sides to the equation. There's the rate side, which the carriers are working through, and then there's the loss side. And, you know, I think the big question for the industry will be what that loss side looks like over the course of the year. I think there's a scenario where, you know, things somewhat stabilize where they are, and then the rates come and meet the losses where they are. There's also a scenario where you could continue to see deflationary pressures in the lost environment, meaning the cost of used cars or some of the cost drivers subsiding, in which case the carriers could enter a period of somewhat windfall profitability. Time will tell. But I think those are the things to watch, right? There's the rate side, but then there's also the loss side and some of the key drivers of losses as the year unfolds.
spk11: Super helpful. Thank you. Just maybe a follow-up. Carriers typically set annual budgets. and I'm guessing some of that's reflected in your guidance today, but are you seeing any changes in pattern with that, just given the macro uncertainty and them taking rates? Just kind of curious, you know, just on the full year basis, if you're seeing sort of any change in behavior there from the carriers. Thank you.
spk10: Yeah. You know, from last year, we are seeing the carrier, the subset of carriers that have, you know, gotten their rates in line have largely returned to more sort of normalized historical approach to setting their budget, which varies by carrier. Some operate relatively unconstrained way. Some will set their budget on a quarterly or monthly basis. But we're seeing budgets return to normal in pockets. In other areas, we're seeing just carriers manage through budget caps, and that's being reflected in the lower levels of demand and spend with the balance of carriers who haven't yet achieved rate adequacy. And those budgets tend to get revisited, if not monthly, quarterly. And so we tend to get information from some of these carriers, and we obviously have an open dialogue with them. And in general, I'd say they're moving to a more constructive stance, meaning they're looking for pockets. On balance, they're looking for pockets where they can lean in, where they have profitability. but we sort of learn more as they learn more about their underwriting results with each month or quarter that passes.
spk11: Okay, that's really helpful. Thank you, Jamie. Thanks, Rob.
spk04: Thank you, Mr. Shackert. Our next question comes from the line of Aaron Kessler with Raymond James. Your line is now open.
spk08: Great. Thank you. Maybe can you talk a little bit about, as well, the agency performance in the quarter, kind of what are you seeing from agents? And then, additionally, can you talk, I think you noted in the report, kind of some market share gains, just how are you thinking you're doing versus competitors currently? And lastly, just the non-auto verticals, kind of where do you think you see the most opportunity for re-acceleration in 2023? Thank you. Sure. So, agents are
spk10: sort of competitive landscape for market share and non-auto. And just to clarify, you know, we talk about two different agent channels, and I'm happy to talk about both, but we have our local agents, our third-party agent network, and then we have our direct-to-consumer agency. Is there one that you were inquiring about?
spk08: Yeah, I was going to start with the local auto agents, yeah.
spk10: Yeah, sure. So that part of the business has demonstrated – Really strong resilience over the last year. As the direct carriers contracted meaningfully, we were able to continue growing demand from local agents. And that's in spite of the industry headwinds. It's in spite of cost controls that we placed on that business just as part of our overall OpEx management efforts. And I think we are pretty confident that today EverQuote is both the largest and highest performing provider to the local agent base. Predominantly those captive agents that Allstate or State Farm or farmers agents of the world. So it's been a strength for the business in 22. As we look at it to next year, we're going to continue to invest in it. So we expect it to demand from agents to continue growing while we drive further efficiency through it. And, you know, we look forward to really expanding the suite of products and services that we're offering these agents with the goal of building just deeper, longer-term relationships with them. So it's a part of the market where we feel we're in a great position right now and we're going to continue to invest behind. I think that probably relates to the second part of your question around, you know, I guess competitive dynamics and market share. Based on all of the data that's available to us publicly and information that we get from carriers, I think we're pretty confident that we have gained share by and large over the last year. I think we'd attribute that both to the strength of our agent distribution, that's both third-party agents and our direct-to-consumer agency, as well as just our effectiveness in managing traffic operations and response to fluctuating demand over the course of the year. So, you know, we're pretty confident that we have picked up a step through the downturn and that should position us well on the way out. And then to address your third question around non-auto verticals, I think the growth is going to be fairly well balanced across the non-auto verticals. One area that we're leaning into a bit more heavily is home insurance. If you look at some of the carrier results, the P&C carriers, while they continue to work on restoring auto profitability, the picture in home is a bit better for them. And so therefore, they do have appetite to grow. There is more demand that is there that is more stable. And we are leaning into that and trying to rebuild momentum in the home operation. And then I think health and Medicare continues to be an area of opportunity and an area of focus. In our direct consumer agency, we've driven a tremendous amount of efficiency over the last year into the health and Medicare operation, and we're continuing to invest in driving strong unit economics, and as we do, we'll return to more of a growth posture in those verticals over the course of the year. Great. Thank you.
spk08: No problem. Thanks, Erin.
spk04: Thank you, Mr. Kessler. Our next question comes from the line of Jed Kelly with Oppenheimer. Your line is now open.
spk06: Hey, great. Thanks for taking my questions. Just a couple, if I may. Just going back to the competitive dynamic, I think some of the competitors maybe are kind of guiding the for somewhat of a faster growth rate, maybe, maybe in one queue. Can you discuss anything around the competitive dynamics? And then you did file a mixed shelf offering. Can you discuss, you know, any potential acquisitions or how the act or like, you know, how the environment is for, for valuations and, you know, the overall acquisition environment. Thank you.
spk10: Sure. I'll take the first piece, Jed. Yeah, we, you know, we, we, We've seen and heard how some of the others are talking about the recovery. I don't believe there's a difference in terms of what we're seeing versus what others are seeing. We have seen a substantial step up sequentially from Q4 into Q1. It's relatively concentrated, as we mentioned, in terms of it coming from a small subset of the carrier base. I think we are likely seeing what the rest of the industry is seeing. You have to recall that we have a different distribution sort of channel mix from most of the industry and that about half of our revenue comes from the agent channel, which has been more of a steady grower throughout. And so you might expect to see a bit more of a swing from other companies that have less diversification in their distribution base. But, you know, by and large, we're taking a relatively conservative approach to it, right? We appreciate that there's still quite a bit of uncertainty in the market. We want to see some more depth in terms of carriers returning to the marketplace, more carriers returning to growth mindset. And I think as we do, you know, you will see us reflect that as our confidence builds that we have established. that we have those dynamics in the marketplace in a way that we haven't yet achieved, but we're moving in the right direction for sure.
spk07: And Jed, on the shelf registration we filed today, I would describe that really as just good housekeeping and a step to give us some capital optionality. In my prepared remarks, I went out of my way to say that it's not something that we're looking for to raise capital to fund the business. And in fact, that we're starting to talk about returning to positive operating cash flow next year, maybe just slightly for the year, but we are starting to manage for positive operating cash flow. So it's not a scenario where we believe we need capital in order to run the business. And that really leaves the other major lever, which is around acquisition. We do think that the environment, you know, could become attractive and compelling over the course of the year. And I think you know our view on acquisitions, you know, that we've spoken about in the past, which is, you know, we think acquisitions can be a part of our growth story if they tie in well to kind of our known growth levers. And if they provide us usually some sort of an initiative that we've thought about growing ourselves and we look to an acquisition in order to jump start something like that. So we think there could be some opportunities on that side. The filing of the shelf really just gives us optionality around being able to raise capital, but no specific plans in mind and certainly no dependencies as we look at the shelf.
spk06: And then just as a follow up, I look at the the non-variable marketing of your total sales and marketing. I think it was $14.5 million this quarter, so down 14%, down 5% sequentially. How should we be forecasting, or what's implied in the guide for that line item for 23? Thanks.
spk07: Just to clarify, are you saying the non-advertising component of sales and marketing?
spk06: Yes.
spk07: Yeah, so there you see, within that number, you see the reflection kind of of the plans to focus our DTCA efforts around improving economics. And so there you see the reduced expense in that line item mostly being driven out of lower agent count, lower resources going into DTCA this year versus last year. Last year, it was very important for us to grow the business established that we could scale the business. This year we were more focused on improving the efficiency and as Jamie mentioned, we significantly improved the efficiency of our DPCA, which is both in P&C and most especially within health. As we move forward, we are looking at DPCA, again, mostly focused around improving the economics of the direct-to-consumer agency. And when we achieve those economics, we believe that warrant scale will start to scale DTCA again. But what is implied in the guide is generally modest resources around DTCA with some incremental resources in the back half of the year, this year versus last year. but no dramatic growth plans and resources that are implied within the operating expense guidance.
spk06: Thank you.
spk04: Thank you, Mr. Kelly. Our final question comes from the line of Daniel Day with B Riley Securities. Your line is now open.
spk09: Yeah, afternoon, guys. Appreciate you taking the questions. Most of mine have been asked, but I'll sneak one more in just to follow up on the discussion on cash OpEx you had there. It looks like, you know, you're baking in that OpEx below the VMM line slightly up year over year. Maybe just talk about any levers you have if you were to choose to bring some of those VMM dollars down to EBITDA, you know, more so than you're currently baking into the guide, and then If that EBITDA were to come in roughly around where you're guiding to in 23, do you have a sense where free cash flow would be for the year? I think the swing factor really would just be the sort of working capital in the BTCA, but anything else there in terms of EBITDA and free cash flow bridge would be great.
spk07: Sure. I think let's start with the second part of that. I think really when we talk about... positive operating cash flow for the full year, that's a very significant improvement over 2022. At the midpoint of our guidance, we think of that as narrow positive operating cash flow for the full year. You know the dynamics of the business, which is the marketplace, tends to produce cash at a level similar to our adjusted EBITDA. as that business improves on its adjusted EBITDA profile. We have a use of cash from the DTCA business, but we have efforts there in order to manage that business for reduced cash usage as we improve the economics of that business. So that combination at the midpoint of our guide, we think it brings us slightly positive for the full year on operating cash. Then turning to the first part of your question, when you look at the economics, I'd say the greatest opportunity really is if we see greater strength around carrier demand and return to the market. We have a history of when we see greater demand, that translates pretty quickly into a higher VMM. And although below the VMM line, we are often making choices between growth and EBITDA, usually when we see that, that translates into stronger EBITDA than expected, largely because it takes us time to deploy those dollars for growth. And so I think if you look and say, certainly anything under the VMM line, we have that choice between investing for growth Today, in our guidance, we have some investments baked in for growth around our agency business, both first party and third party. And then I think beyond that, the leverage, the accretion for EBITDA on additional VMD is very strong after that. And that would be the upside that we could see if we see stronger demand returning over the course of the year.
spk09: Okay, that's all I've got, guys. Appreciate your time.
spk07: Thanks, Dan.
spk04: Thanks, Dan. Thank you, Mr. Day. There are no additional questions waiting at this time. We'll pass the conference back over to Jamie Mandel for closing remarks.
spk10: Thank you. So, you know, we were really tested in 22 with the most severe hard market in auto insurance memory. And I got to say, I'm incredibly proud of how the team rose to the occasion and adapted to it. Despite a significantly worse demand scenario than we predicted at the beginning of last year, we managed to drive efficiency and deliver an adjusted EBITDA above our original 2022 guidance. Looking ahead, we are working hard to restore growth, to improve adjusted EBITDA, and generate positive cash flow from operations. As we do, we are excited to just continue to build on the strategic momentum in our pursuit of an industry-defining destination for insurance shopping in the digital age. Looking forward to sharing updates on our progress as the year goes on. Thank you all.
spk04: That concludes the EverQuote fourth quarter and full year 2022 earnings call. Thank you for your participation. I hope you have a wonderful day.
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