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EVgo Inc.

Q22026

8/5/2026

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Thank you for standing by. Welcome to the EVGO second quarter 2026 earnings call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speaker's presentation, there will be a question and answer session. To ask a question during the session, you'll need to press star 1-1 on your telephone. You will then hear an automated message advising your hand is raised. To withdraw your question, please press star 1-1 again. Please be advised that this conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Heather Davis, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

speaker
Heather Davis
Vice President of Investor Relations

Good morning and welcome to EVgo's second quarter 2026 earnings call. My name is Heather Davis and I am the Vice President of Investor Relations at EVgo. Joining me on today's call are Badar Khan, EVgo's Chief Executive Officer, and Keefer Lehner, EVgo's Chief Financial Officer. Today we will be discussing EVgo's second quarter 2026 financial results and our outlook for the year. followed by a Q&A session. Today's call is being webcast and can be accessed on the investor section of our website at investors.evgo.com. The call will be archived and available there along with the company's earnings release and investor presentation after the conclusion of this call. During the call, management will be making forward-looking statements that are subject to risk and uncertainty. including expectations about future performance. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from our expectations are detailed in our SEC filings including in the risk factor section of our most recent annual report on Form 10-K and quarterly reports on Form 10-Q. The company's SEC filings are available on the investor section of our website. These forward-looking statements apply as of today and we undertake no obligation to update these statements after the call. Also, please note that we will be referring to certain non-GAAP financial measures on this call. Information about these non-GAAP measures, including definitions and applicable reconciliations to the corresponding GAAP measures, can be found in the earnings materials available on the investor section of our website. With that, I'll turn the call over to Badar Khan, EVGO's CEO.

speaker
Badar Khan
Chief Executive Officer

Thank you, Heather. EVGO delivered solid results for the second quarter in line with our expectations while continuing to build a durable nationwide infrastructure network. We have a proven track record of growth in both operational stalls and revenue. Since 2021, the year we went public, Our operational stalls are expected to increase nearly four-fold by the end of 2026. We've delivered consistent growth year in and year out. Total revenue is expected to increase even faster at 19 times by the end of 2026. Revenue growth is driven by a combination of stall additions, increasing daily throughput per stall, and our non-charging revenue tied to extend and autonomous vehicles lines of business. What's really impressive is through 2025, our revenue compound annual growth rate has exceeded 100%, putting us in the top 1% of US public company revenue growth rates and around three times higher than our public charging peers. We are thrilled to announce that EVgo and Tesla have entered into an agreement to deploy EVgo branded superchargers. Through this agreement, EVgo will own these EVgo-branded superchargers, select their location, and set pricing, while Tesla builds and operates the chargers under a long-term arrangement. We expect to deploy EVgo superchargers in dozens of cities across the US starting this year. Together with the next connectors we are rolling out across our existing network, this more than doubles our addressable market by reaching both Tesla and non-Tesla NAX drivers. This enables EVgo to accelerate our deployment of NAX connectors with a goal of all 2023 vintage and newer sites having a NAX connector within the next two years. These V4 superchargers are 500 kilowatts and equipped with Tesla's Magic Dock technology, enabling effortless charging for all EV drivers. serving both NACs and CCS vehicles with no adapter needed. Consistent with our existing strategy, these sites on the EVO network will be located near the retail shops, restaurants, and everyday destinations where drivers already spend time, with up to 20 stalls per site and longer cables so every driver can easily plug in, regardless of in-location on the vehicle. EVgo Supercharger locations will be available in Tesla's NAV and Trip Planner, and all EVgo stations with NAX connectors will also be available in the Tesla NAV once a driver enables third-party stations. Importantly, we expect to deploy these assets with little to no incremental growth G&A at a gross capital cost per stall broadly equivalent to our current bills and we expect to finance these stalls through existing EVgo financing sources. Buying these V4 superchargers from Tesla also diversifies our supply chain toward more U.S. made chargers. In addition to EVgo superchargers, we continue to make progress on our next generation charging architecture being developed at EVgo's Innovation Lab with the first units expected to be installed by the end of If you go, it's among the top three largest fast charging operators in the country, along with Tesla and Electrify America, and is around 14 times larger than the average of the rest of the industry. We built our network at great sites near amenities that EV drivers are looking for. We believe our real estate relationships and site selection process, together with our rideshare partnerships with leading companies like Uber and Lyft, and the rest of the industry. The combination of industry leading scale and partnerships, investment class customer engagement and experience supported by our next generation charging architecture is what drives five-fold higher utilization at our sites versus the rest of the industry. With almost 5,400 stalls, including 4,000 EVGO owned and operated, EVGO is the third largest public fast charging network in the U.S. We have over a 15-year track record, identifying and deploying over 1,200 utility-connected sites at optimal urban and suburban locations across the U.S. Our sites, our existing sites have approximately 600 megawatts of connected power capacity, including approximately 45% unutilized capacity at current utilization levels. Over the next five years, our installed base is expected to quadruple to over two gigawatts of utility connected capacity with approximately one gigawatt of potential usage expansion. We are beginning to evaluate whether there are complementary revenue streams available to us to monetize this excess capacity, whether that is utilized as demand response, battery energy storage systems, or capacity for a distributed edge AI inference network. Our network strategy has always been to locate sites in urban and suburban locations close to where drivers go about their lives, and therefore, by definition, close proximity to energy demand which is potentially very attractive. EV vehicles in operation have grown at a 40 percent TAGR since 2021 and are expected to grow another 17 percent annually through 2030 to reach nearly 13 million by the end of 2030 according to S&P's latest forecast from June 2026. Our total BIO is expected to be lower than previous forecasts and a half years with an underlying growth rate that remains highly supportive of our business model and one that is highly attractive even when compared to other high growth sectors. The EV market appears to be stabilizing after the loss of federal incentives at the end of Q3 25 with higher gas prices pinching American Wallet 247,000 up 15% from Q1. About a dozen states are offering EV incentives to consumers to spur EV adoption. Most notably, California has recently announced consumer incentives, rideshare incentives, and charging incentives for rideshare drivers. Consumer incentives aim to backfill the expired federal tax with $3,500 for new EVs and $1,750 for used vehicles. For rideshare drivers, the California incentives expected to go live in Q3 are even stronger with incentives of $20,000 for new EVs and $14,000 for used EVs for income qualifying drivers. The used market remains a bright spot for EV sales with both new drivers for trying out fully electric cars at cheaper price points, and for EVgo because used vehicle owners are less likely to have charging at home and more reliant on public fast charging. With over 1.5 million vehicles coming off lease between 2026 to 2028, this used vehicle supply not only helps meet consumer demand, but also provides a significant tailwind for EVgo. With our updated view of the underlying market, were showing what an illustrative owned and operated EVGO network could look like by 2028 and by 2030. Despite near-term market noise, we continue to expect EVGO to be generating recurring adjusted EBITDA of approximately half a billion dollars by 2030. The economics of our business are driven by three things. Number of stalls in operation, daily throughput per stall, and operating leverage. These three factors combine to deliver compelling unit economics and returns. With the financing we have in place, we are increasing store growth from the net five to 600 average level, that's net of removals, over the past three years to around seven to 900 in 2026 to four to 5,000 by 2030. This results in a network that is around four times larger than the end of last year by 2030. Daily throughput per stall has already grown nearly fivefold between 2022 and 2025, driven by the growth of electric vehicles on the road, together with EVGO's meaningfully higher utilization in almost all our peers, and with a stall underwriting process that we continually review and update. We are particularly excited about our latest 2026 vintage and especially 2027 vintage, which we are expecting to be our best ever Over the next five years, we're conservatively expecting a smaller increase in daily throughput per stall than we've experienced over the past three years. Underscoring our confidence in this illustrative forecast is the fact that our mature 350 kilowatt stalls are already delivering daily throughput per stall at the mid 350 level, which is what we assume by 2028. and by 2030, it'll be over 95%. Operating leverage exists in two places, and we can see the track record very clearly in our actual results. We've operating leverage in charging gross margin, where 25 to 30% of charging cost of sales is fixed, like site rent, resulting in higher gross margin as throughput rises. We've seen charging gross margin rise from near 15% to nearly 40% last year, and is projected to be around 50% by 2030 as throughput per stall rises. And we have significant operating leverage in adjusted G&A, where around two-thirds of G&A is largely fixed overhead and the cost of growing the network. As you can see, adjusted G&A has only grown by around $35 million in three years, whereas charging revenue has grown five times as much. In fact, the charging network excluding fixed overhead and growth G&A has been profitable since late 2023 and just becomes more and more profitable over time. Going out to 2030, adjusted G&A barely doubles over 2025, resulting in a half a billion dollars in charging gross profit dropping straight to the bottom line. EVGO has the potential to be generating triple-digit millions in adjusted EBITDA, with EBITDA margins in the mid-teens, and by 2030, this grows to the low to mid-30% range. As you can see, all of this is without any contribution from our non-charging businesses, including AV, that have historically generated meaningful additional gross profit, and for which we are not yet providing an illustrative forecast. To summarize the story, Evigo has spent the past 15 years building a business model and a competitive mode that is hard to replicate and benefits from a number of growing mega trends and tailwinds that have already translated into strong financial results and will deliver even stronger results over the coming years. Evigo operates a highly differentiated, industry-leading charging platform that has meaningfully higher utilization than almost every one of our peers. is not only driven by our proprietary site selection capabilities, but also best-in-class customer experience and customer engagement to a large and growing customer base, combined with leading partnerships across the broader industry. Our ability to attract non-dilutive financing to accelerate our growth further separates us from our peers. Our focus on owning and operating our network, especially in the high density urban All of this benefits from a compelling macro backdrop that will propel the business for many years to come. Vehicles in operation are expected to more than double by 2030. The share of public fast charging continues to rise due to the electrification of rideshare, more affordable vehicles, and faster charge rates. Standardized cables will double are all capital-efficient, accretive growth model that positions EVGO to compound intrinsic value as we continue to scale our network. Taken together, our different approach, the accelerating demand environment, and the strong returns of new investments give us deep confidence in the long-term value creation opportunity ahead. Beyond the core charging business, there is considerable upside in EVGO that we are beginning to evaluate and are likely to generate material additional EBITDA by 2030. We already generate revenues and margins from serving autonomous vehicle partners, which we have been doing for five years. While this is a small part of EVgo today, the AV market is poised for tremendous growth, and we believe our track record, partnerships and competitive strengths position us well to deliver meaningful upside over the medium and long term. and more. As a result, there will likely be compelling inorganic opportunities for EVgo in the future as the only pure play US charging company that has successfully attracted non-diluting financing at scale. EVgo has the potential to generate half a billion dollars in adjusted EBITDA in the next five years and given that, we are now planning to start a Today we provide charging infrastructure for passenger vehicles, but we can see various segments both within passenger vehicles and beyond with needs that we may be able to serve over time given our relationships and expertise. Similarly, today EVgo is a U.S. only business. Over the next five years, we may choose to expand geographically. Thank you. Thank you. and others. This year, we have formed a small but dedicated corporate development team to begin evaluating these opportunities, and I look forward to providing more details over the coming quarters. Ethigo offers differentiated growth at an attractive valuation. Based on five-year consensus estimates, we're growing EBITDA faster than every comparable industry we benchmark against by a wide margin. And yet, we trade at a fraction There's not a small gap. That's the kind of setup that often gets re-rated once the market catches up to the growth curve. And why do we benchmark against digital infrastructure, renewable energy, waste management, fuel distribution, energy infrastructure and utilities? Because structurally, these are all businesses where you spend the capital once, you build the towers, the pipelines, substations, the routes, and then you monetize that fixed asset base over a long horizon with high incremental margins as utilization clients. They're essential service networks, highly visible demand, and meaningful barriers to entry once they're built out. That's exactly our model with our public fast charging network. We're building infrastructure American needs, and every dollar of capex we've already put in the ground gets more profitable as utilization scales. And that shows up on the right side of the slide. within our own EV charging category, our EBITDA margins are projected to be among the best in the peer group. So it's not just that we're growing faster than the broader infrastructure peers that are trading at many times our multiple, within our own competitive set, we're also one of the most profitable operators with a superior business model. Put those two things together, infrastructure grade growth margins that are expected to lead our direct peer set, and you get why we think EVgo is mispriced today. Now, I'll turn it over to Keefer to share financial details from the second quarter on EVgo's 2026 outlook.

speaker
Keefer Lehner
Chief Financial Officer

Thank you, Badar. As mentioned, EVgo has two debt facilities to draw upon to finance our infrastructure build-out, and we have over $630 million of available capacity on our DOE and commercial bank facilities, both at attractive financing rates. Combined with our cash, cash equivalents, and restricted cash as of June 30th, EVgo has approximately $835 million in available liquidity. We ended Q2 with 5,380 stalls in operation, an approximate three times increase compared to the end of 2021. We added 280 total new stalls to the network in Q2 2026, including 120 new public EVgo owned stalls. We also continued our Renew program, decommissioning and removing 175 legacy chargers from the network in the second quarter. Our customer base continues to grow and is now over 1.8 million strong, and we look forward to welcoming more native NACs drivers to our app and network on the back of the announcement to deploy EVgo superchargers. We have 240 NAC stalls today across approximately 100 sites and we plan to deploy even more through the year at our 350 kilowatt sites and our new EVgo supercharger sites. Total energy dispensed on EVgo's network is 384 gigawatt hours for the trailing 12 months 16% increase from the TTM period ended Q2 2025. Charging gross margin was 39% over the last 12 months, expanding by two percentage points over the prior year's TTM. Adjusted EBITDA margin was flat on a trailing 12 month basis. Our throughput on the public network during the second quarter was 99 gig watt hours, a 13% increase compared to last year and a 9% increase sequentially. Daily throughput per stall was 2% lower year over year, but 7% higher sequentially, though softer than originally expected as we entered 2026. Sequentially, we grew daily throughput per stall, partially offset by ongoing softness in our lower power legacy equipment and lower contribution from OEM charging credit programs that are winding down through the end of 2026. Revenue for Q2 2026 was $83 million, which represents a 16% year-over-year decrease driven entirely by our non-charging business. In our core charging business, charging network revenue was $61 million, a 19% increase versus the prior year driven primarily by a larger operating network with a 13% increase in the public network The throughput and charging revenue per kilowatt hour drove approximately 75% and 25% of the year-over-year revenue growth, respectively. Xtend revenue was $18 million, down $19 million over the same period in 2025, driven by lower equipment sales and construction revenue. A reminder that Xtend will continue to largely trend lower over the next six quarters, and by 2028 will be a $5 to $10 million per year revenue business. AV and ancillary revenue was $3 million, down $6 million versus the prior year. There were no new deployments in Q2, and this revenue line remains episodic as it's driven by deployment timing of long-duration projects with our AV partners. With that said, we do expect two additional projects to go operational in 2026. Charging network gross profit was $22 million, a 15% increase compared to the prior year of Q2. Charging network gross margin was 36% versus 37% last year, with slightly higher energy costs and non-energy costs compared to last year driven by rent and maintenance. Second quarter adjusted gross profit was $26 million, down 7% versus the prior year, driven by lower contribution from Xtend and AV this year. Adjusted gross margin was 32% in Q2, nearly three percentage points higher over the same period in 2025 due to greater contribution from our higher margin charging network activity. Adjusted DNA for the quarter was $37 million, an increase of 22% compared to the prior year, but a 1% decrease compared to Q1 2026 and in line with expectations as we are investing in network scale, accelerating cell deployment, and latest generation architecture. The above resulted in an adjusted EBITDA loss of $10.6 million in the second quarter of 2026, in line with the guidance we provided. Turning to our outlook and guidance for 2026. As Badar discussed, we remain highly confident in and excited by the long-term opportunity of the owner-operator business for deploying fast charging in the United States. As shown, we are building a scalable and durable business that is generating solid gross margins today and expected to scale to very attractive EBITDA generating business by 2030. For the full year 2026, we expect to add 1,350 to 1,625 new stalls of 950 to 1,175 new public and AV stalls and 400 to 450 extend stalls. We have the ability to see and respond quickly to performance trends in our stall deployment. Given the slower ramp in daily throughput per stall from our 2025 cohort and further reduced EV sales forecasted for 2026, we've adjusted our underwriting to ensure that capital is being allocated to what we believe will be the best sites from an economics and returns perspective. As a result, we have removed some stalls from our 2026 build program at no material cost. Our site pipeline today is as healthy as it's ever been, and the team is laser focused on maximizing our opportunities to allocate capital at the highest quality locations. Stall builds in 2026 are heavily weighted to the fourth quarter, including the energization of EVgo superchargers with approximately 60% of the full year's build now anticipated in Q4. Given the pace of new stall lease signings since at least Q4 2025, which remain around three times higher than the past, we expect 2027 new additions around two and a half to three times the number of new owned and operated stalls added in 2025. Turning to the income statement, EVGO anticipates total 2026 revenues in the 400 to $430 million range. This top line view reflects up to 30% year over year growth in the charging business. It encapsulates the impact of downward revised BIO forecasts, a slower ramp for our 2025 vintage stalls

speaker
Badar Khan
Chief Executive Officer

and many more. In addition to this, we are also going to be looking at a number of new products that will be available in the future.

speaker
Keefer Lehner
Chief Financial Officer

We are also looking at a number of new products that will be available in the future. We are looking at a number of new products that will be available in the future. We are looking at a number of new products that will be available in the future. We are looking at a number of new products that will be available in the future. Performance from our lower power legacy equipment continues to soften, so this fleet becomes an immaterial portion of the network within two years. Any upside from the deployment of EVgo superchargers and the placement of our EVgo NAC stalls on the Tesla navigation system that we expect will double our addressable market is likely to have a bigger impact from 2027 onwards rather than 2026. The total charging network revenue is still expected to be roughly two-thirds of full-year revenue and deliver robust year-over-year growth. Regarding our non-charging revenue, we are increasing our guidance for 2026 extended revenues to be in the 90 to 95 million dollar range, with about two-thirds of the remaining revenue expected in Q4. AV and ancillary revenues are anticipated to be 40 to 45 million dollars. The fourth quarter is modeled to be the largest quarter of the year for AV revenues given the timing of two new AV sites being operationalized. Adjusted G&A is expected to be $148 to $152 million for the year, a slight improvement in G&A from our prior guidance as we expect to incur lower growth costs given the slightly lower stall deployments while still executing on our internally developed latest gen architecture. 2026 adjusted EBITDA is now anticipated to be a loss in the range of negative $25 million to negative $5 million. For Q3, we anticipate negative adjusted EBITDA and Q4 adjusted EBITDA is anticipated to be positive as we have a large number of stalls to be operationalized in the fourth quarter. I want to reiterate our excitement about both the near-term and the long-term opportunity for EVgo to organically expand our network, continually enhance the customer experience, and drive shareholder value creation via the realization of the EBITDA potential of this business. With that, we will open the call to Q&A.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, if you have a question or a comment at this time, please press star 1-1 on your telephone. If your question has been answered and you are seeing yourself from the queue, please press star 1-1 again. We will pause for a moment while we compile our Q&A roster. Our first question comes from Chris Dendrinos with RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open. Yeah, good morning and thank you.

speaker
Chris Dendrinos
Analyst, RBC Capital Markets

Hey, you know, maybe you just start out and there's a lot to unpack here, but maybe just speak a bit more on the Tesla integration strategy. And it's pretty interesting that you all are kind of expanding, I guess, that partnership. So maybe speak to how this kind of came about. Why sort of an own partnership? Business Model, but not operate here. And then is there an opportunity to expand that beyond just the initial, I think, 35 superchargers? Thanks.

speaker
Badar Khan
Chief Executive Officer

Sure. Yeah. I'm not sure I quote the very last part of that. But look, we are thrilled with this agreement with Tesla, really, Chris, for three reasons. First, it essentially doubles our addressable market. and many more. within the next couple of years through retrofitting our existing sites together with the Indigo Superchargers. Second reason I'm really excited by it is because we're able to use turnkey sites that have already been developed by Tesla and essentially generate revenue from those new deployments without incurring any material growth G&A. As you know, We're really ramping up our growth. Growth in our own network is, what, 40% to 70% up this year versus last year. This year, we'll be incurring growth G&A for a 2.5 to 3-fold increase in new stalls in 2027 versus 2025. And so growth G&A has been a big part of our very near-term story. Of course, we're building a business for the long-term here, but with these really grow revenue without any material G&A costs, which I think is very attractive. I think the third thing is that, look, this agreement demonstrates that EVgo and Tesla are actually aligned on our goal to accelerate EV adoption. Rather than just trying to maximize share of each other's charging of one another, we're really actually just focused on growing EV adoption, which I think benefits everybody. So we're really thrilled with the agreement. We're expecting to deploy, as you've seen from our long-term forecasts here, we've updated these forecasts on this call, 10,000 to 12,000 fast charging stalls over the next five years. And we'd expect some proportion of that to be these EVgo superchargers.

speaker
Chris Dendrinos
Analyst, RBC Capital Markets

Great. Thank you. And maybe as a follow-up here, just sticking on the topic of Next Charging. And can you speak to some of the, I guess, call it early deployment data with those next tables? And I think you previously spoke to either a slower initial ramp rate or a bit lower charge rate versus the rest of the network right now. And how are those charging rates trending? And just trying to get a sense for, I guess, the decision to lean more heavily into the next network here. Thanks.

speaker
Badar Khan
Chief Executive Officer

and as we said, there's more than half the market today are NAICS drivers and as we look into the future, we're not building a business here just quarter to quarter, we're building and developing a business to generate very material value creation long term. As we look into the future, pretty much most new models that are sold will have native NAICS ports. So this is an important strategic objective for us We've already got about 240 NAC stalls operational. We're expecting 500 this year and everything from 2023 vintage sites to have at least one NAC staple. But in terms of your specific question, throughput on our NAC stalls that we deployed since the last fall has now more than doubled. We've got now double the number of Tesla drivers than we've ever had before, which Super exciting. The usage on these stalls are still, well, they're below the usage that we see in our CCS stalls, which is why I've said all year that this NAX transition is a very important investment for us. Without this choice, we might see slightly higher throughput per stall, but it's one that we think is super important effective for long term. and I think that the important thing here is that with this agreement with Tesla, we expect all of that to just motor up. We're deploying easy-go superchargers and importantly, the NAC stalls that we have retrofit, the easy-go stalls that are not superchargers that we've been retrofitting, they will appear on the navigation for vehicles for Tesla drivers. We know From our experience, the Tesla drivers tend to rely on their nav a lot more than non-Tesla drivers. And so this is a really important unlock for us. And in terms of how we compare our utilization on the stalls that we've deployed, the Q2 is about three times higher than pretty much the average of everybody else, other than, of course, Tesla. So we just continue to reinforce the point that we've got great utilization on our network. and really this deal, I think, is a really great sort of source of momentum for the business.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Got it. Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from Andres Shepherd, McAntee. Your line is open.

speaker
Andres Shepherd
Analyst, McAntee

Hey, guys. This is Anand for Andres. Congrats on the quarter and thanks for taking our questions. So firstly, I wanted to touch on today's announcement of the supercharger rollout, building a little bit off the last question, but more on the financial front. With Tesla building and operating the chargers, but EVgo owning them, can you walk us through maybe how that affects your capex, throughput, utilization, or other aspects of your financials and unit economics? Thank you.

speaker
Badar Khan
Chief Executive Officer

For sure. Yeah, look, the gross capex per stall is pretty much in line with our gross capex per stall for our existing sites. Tesla will own and operate, I'm sorry, we will own, Tesla will operate and maintain these stalls. And those costs are also broadly in line. We would expect to see utilization and throughput on these stalls to be broadly equivalent to our existing network. Indeed, I think that you could make the case that over time, because these stalls are serving both the magic dark technology, both CCS and NAX, that you might see an increase. We don't, of course, assume that. Our forecasts are always conservative. And so in every respect, the economics, we set the pricing in line with all of the rest of our pricing programs. So in every respect, the economics are conservative. are really broadly the same with potentially some upside. I think the important thing, Anand, I think I just want to reemphasize is with this agreement, the EVgo non-supercharger stores that will have NACs, that sites that will have NACs cables will be appearing on the Tesla navigation. So that's just and as I said before, you know, these sites are 350 kilowatt sites versus, you know, Tesla's supercharger network that's generally, you know, slower and they're very conveniently located to where drivers live, you know, work and go about their activities.

speaker
Andres Shepherd
Analyst, McAntee

Got it. Appreciate the color. And maybe as a follow-up, relatedly touching on that utilization you mentioned, I was wondering maybe are you seeing stronger utilization on your newer or more mature stalls and maybe have there been any surprising trends based on geographies and how should we maybe think about that in the future with the mix of retail versus AV and fleet slash ride share changing especially in 4Q as you mentioned in the call. Thank you.

speaker
Badar Khan
Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, look I think that there's a really ton of momentum in the business that we're seeing where and Superchargers One. But I think a couple other points I do want to make sure that we bring out, which is that the usage, the throughput per stall per day that we see on our mature 350 kilowatt machines, which is now the majority of our network and will be in fact 95 plus percent of the network by 2030, are already operating We provided you with a long-term forecast here just to give you a sense of why we're so excited about the growth of the business. But we also gave you a midpoint, the 2028, just to give you a sense that going from where we are today to half a billion dollars in EBITDA recurring is entirely achievable if you just take it one step at a time. 15% of our network is now already generating 600 kilowatt hours per store per day. Our entire mature 350 kilowatt network is now averaging in the mid 350s, which is what we're projecting for 2028. So we're really thrilled about where we are in terms of our throughput. Some of the equipment will be pretty much gone. We've got about 500 low power, 50 kilowatt machines, which we've said for many years we've been on a program to renew. They all have gone, all of it upgraded by 2028. I think the second thing that I think I want to make sure we bring out is that with the non-dilutive financing that we have in place, we're really scaling the business. And so we're in dialogue with site host partners to really scale up the business. We announced a partnership with Bricksmore a couple of days ago, which really reinforces just the quality of site host agreements, the scale and quality. We're signing up stalls with new site hosts, about three times the level we were in 2025, which is why you get this event. Halls in 2027. So it's a huge scale up, but with a great quality site hosts. If you aren't already familiar with Briggs Moore, we're talking about one of the, I think the largest wholly owned grocery anchored shopping center owner in the United States. These are brands like Kroger's, Publix, HEB, Whole Foods, Trader Joe's. We know these are great locations. We love the grocery store anchor because Americans on average go to grocery stores two to three times a week. And they typically spend about 25 minutes, which is a which is just a perfect fit with our supercharger. So in terms of nuggets of insight, there's some really, I think, just some really exciting momentum that we feel that we have in the business.

speaker
Andres Shepherd
Analyst, McAntee

Got it. Lots of detail there. Thanks again for all the color and congrats again on all the progress. I'll pass it on. Thanks so much.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Again, ladies and gentlemen, if you have a question or a comment at this time, please press star one one on your telephone. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from Chris Pierce with Needham. Your line is open.

speaker
Chris Pierce
Analyst, Needham

Hi, Chris. Hey, good morning, everyone. Thanks for taking the questions. Keefer, could you go into a little more detail? I believe you talked about the 2025 cohort of installed sites. I'd just love to hear kind of what you were referencing. I think you said it wasn't that performing in line with expectations.

speaker
Keefer Lehner
Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, good morning, Chris. So what we mentioned was the 2025 cohort has just been ramping a little bit slower than original prediction and compared to the 2023 and 2024 cohorts. which those on average took roughly 12 months to reach maturity. With that said, the 2025 cohort is only eight and a half months in from a median age standpoint. So it still has time to season and mature. I think most importantly here to Badar's point, as you look ahead to 26, 27 and beyond, we're about as well positioned as we've ever been from a site pipeline quality standpoint. So as we look forward to this year and the deployments in Q4 and into 27 and beyond, we're really excited about the future cohorts in the coming year.

speaker
Chris Pierce
Analyst, Needham

And are those 350 kilowatt sites, or is it something about the location, or is it just a moment in time with EV adoption changes there? I guess I just kind of want to get a broader picture of that cohort.

speaker
Badar Khan
Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, of course. Look, we talked about it quite a bit last year and early part of this year. If you remember, a good portion of our 2025 cohort came with very high capital offsets. When you run the NPV on these things, a higher CapEx offset means you really don't need as strong a throughput level. And that's a little different from what we've been doing over the last several years. We've had very good offsets. and a variety of other capital offset sources. Last year we had a much higher level of state utility incentives. And what Keefer's is saying that we're finding is that the ramp of a bunch of that cohort is actually a little bit slower. We didn't need particularly high rampant throughput for the NPV to be fine. And so what we've done is we've kind of adjusted our underwriting so that we are and that's leading us to these phenomenal site hosts and scale that we're looking at over the next couple of years.

speaker
Chris Pierce
Analyst, Needham

Got it. Perfect. Thank you for that. And then if I look at the illustrative scenarios for 2028 and 2030 that you have out there now, I know you had a prior run rate scenario for 2029. It looks like it's a little steeper ramp to 29 and 30, I guess. If I'm reading that correctly, I just want to make sure I'm understanding what's changed or what you're trying to communicate that's different versus what you were communicating prior to the extent there is a difference. I just want to make sure I'm on the same page, basically.

speaker
Badar Khan
Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, the ramp. So first of all, I think there's a few things that we're communicating. One is that all of the, we call them mega friends and tailwinds, are very much intact. So we've had forecasts change for VIO, but even with the forecast for VIO that we have today, which is, as you know, 60% lower than the forecast three years ago, there's still a doubling of VIO. We're still seeing growth in the share of public fast charging, of total charging that's driven by ride share, by More affordable vehicles being driven by people who don't have charging at home. This enormous tailwind of leases that are due to roll off 1.5 million vehicles. Again, that will attract people we expect who will be charging at public fast charging at high rates. All of those factors are very much in place and You can see that throughput per stall per day has grown almost five-fold in the last three years. We're conservatively assuming a much slower rate of growth in throughput per stall despite all of those tailwinds. And the operating leverage, I think, is proven. You can see that we've got great operating leverage in both gross margin and in G&A. And what we're saying is all of those things remain true. The difference between our last forecast and this forecast actually is very little. We're still generating a business that's generating about half a billion dollars in adjusted EBITDA. We've given you the 2028 number and the sound bites I've just provided on the call and just now to give you a sense of really how much of our network is already operating at the 2028 level. And so that's not really much of a stretch at this point. And the difference between our last forecast is a slight reduction in the throughput per stall per day. We were assuming 450 to 500 kilowatt hours per stall per day, and here we're conservatively assuming 425 to 475. Of course, the agreement we've just announced this morning where we expect to be able to open up more than half the market that hasn't been charging with EVgo should provide some considerable upside to this forecast already. And in terms of your ramp question, no, the ramp is, in terms of new stalls, if you kind of look back at it, it's pretty much the same. We've actually toned down the ramp in that 28 to 2030 period versus what we had said last year. But we're still talking about 4,000 to 5,000 new stalls deployed by 2030.

speaker
Chris Pierce
Analyst, Needham

Okay, perfect. Thank you for that detail, and good luck. Talk soon.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

And I'm not showing any further questions at this time. I'd like to turn the call back over to Badar Khan, CEO, for any closing remarks.

speaker
Badar Khan
Chief Executive Officer

Well, great. Thank you, everyone. Our agreement with Tesla to deploy EVGO superchargers that effectively doubles our addressable market, the non-dilutive financing that we have in place to continue to get in the network, our industry-leading scale and strong utilization, and the fact that our mature 350 kilowatt chargers are already performing at the levels we forecast by 2028. at a very attractive valuation for shareholders. Thank you for joining and we'll see you all next quarter.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This does conclude today's presentation. We thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect and have a wonderful day.

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