This conference call transcript was computer generated and almost certianly contains errors. This transcript is provided for information purposes only.EarningsCall, LLC makes no representation about the accuracy of the aforementioned transcript, and you are cautioned not to place undue reliance on the information provided by the transcript.
spk05: I would now like to turn the call over to Richard Romero from First Solar Investor Relations. Richard, you may begin.
spk11: Good afternoon, and thank you for joining us. Today, the company issued a press release announcing its third quarter 2023 financial results. A copy of the press release and associated presentations are available on First Solar's website at With me today are Mark Widmar, Chief Executive Officer, and Alex Bradley, Chief Financial Officer. Mark will provide a business update. Alex will discuss our financial results and provide updated guidance. Following their remarks, we will open the call for questions. Please note this call will include forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. There are many factors that may cause actual results to differ materially from management's current expectations. We encourage you to review the safe harbor statements contained in today's press release and presentation for a more complete description. It is now my pleasure to introduce Mark Widmore, Chief Executive Officer.
spk13: All right. Thank you, Richard. Good afternoon, and thank you for joining us today. On our recent analyst day in September, we outlined our goal to exit the stackade in a stronger position than we ever did. We believe the future belongs to thin film, and we described our long-term intent to be positioned to serve all addressable markets and commercialize the next generation of PV technology, balancing and optimizing across efficiency, energy, and cost in an environmentally and socially responsible way. This long-term aspiration aligns with our nearer-term growth, which is underpinned by our points of differentiation and solid market fundamentals, including continued strong demand for our products, proven manufacturing excellence, a uniquely advantaged technology platform, and crucially, a balanced business model focused on delivering value to our customers and our shareholders. This is our last earnings call. We have continued to make steady progress on this journey. And I will share some key highlights related to continued strong demand and ASPs, manufacturing, operational excellence, and expansion. Beginning on slide three, we will continue to build on our backlog with 6.8 gigawatts of net bookings since our last earnings call at an ASP of 30 cents per watt, excluding India. This base ASP excludes adjusters applicable to approximately 70% of these bookings, which when applied with our aligned with our technology roadmap, may provide potential upside to the base ASP. These bookings bring our year-to-date net bookings to 27.8 gigawatts and our total backlog to 81.8 gigawatts. Our total pipeline of future bookings opportunity stands at 65.9 gigawatts, including 32.5 gigawatts of mid- to late-stage opportunities. As it relates to manufacturing, We produced 2.5 gigawatts of Series 6 modules in the third quarter with an average watt per module of 469, a top-end class of 475, and a manufacturing yield of 98%. Our third Ohio factory, which establishes the template for high-going Series 7 manufacturing, continues to ramp, demonstrating the manufacturing production capability of up to 15,000 modules per day which is approximately 97% of main plate throughput. The factory produced a total of 565 megawatts in Q3. Total year-to-date production of series 7 modules in the US has surpassed 1 gigawatt. As noted on our analyst day, the factory recently demonstrated a top module wattage produced of 550 watts as part of a limited production run. While still undergoing commercial qualification testing, this implies a record cattail production module efficiency of 19.7%. Our India plant started production in Q3 and is continuing to ramp, recently demonstrating a manufacturing production capability of approximately 12,000 modules per day, which is approximately 77% of the nameplate throughput. The factory produced a total of 154 megawatts in Q3 and recently demonstrated a top module wattage produced of 535 watts. In terms of technology, our Series 6 Plus bifacial modules completed rigorous build and laboratory testing. We recently converted our first Series 6 Plus plants in Perrysburg, Ohio, to commercially produce the world's first bifacial solar panel utilizing an advanced thin-film semiconductor. The technology features an innovative transparent back contact pioneered by First Solar's research and development team, which in addition to enabling bifacial energy gain, allows infrared wavelengths of light pass through rather than be absorbed as heat and is expected to lower the operational temperature of the bifacial module and result in higher specific energy yield. Upon successful demonstration of operational metrics and high value manufacturing, such as yield and throughput, we plan to convert more plants in the future, which will enable us to capture incremental ASP through our existing contractual adjusters. Turning to slide four, our focus on delivering value extends to our manufacturing expansion strategy. And we are making tangible progress towards achieving our forecasted 25 gigawatts of global nameplate capacity by 2026. Construction of our India facility is completed, and production has commenced. Commercial shipments are expected to begin once the factory receives the Bureau of India Standards certification from the Indian government, which is expected by year end. In September, we mobilized our new Louisiana manufacturing facility, our fifth fully vertically integrated factory in the United States. At a ceremony attended by the governor of Louisiana, we set in motion the work expected to deliver 3.5 gigawatts of annual nameplate capacity, which is anticipated to commence operation at the end of 2025. When completed, we expect 1.1 billion facility is projected to take us to approximately 14 gigawatts of annual nameplate capacity in the United States, further enhancing our ability to serve the market with domestically made modules. Meanwhile, we continue to make steady progress on the construction of our new Alabama facility, which is expected to commence operation in the second half of 2024, and our Ohio manufacturing expansion, which is projected to commence operation in the first half of 2024. Additionally, our new R&D Innovation Center and our first perovskite development line, announced at Analyst Day, are also on track. representing an expected combined investment of $450 million. The Prospect Development Line and R&D Center are expected to commence operation in the first half of 2024 and reflect our determination to lead the industry in developing the next generation of PV technologies, optimizing across efficiency, energy, and cost. Crucially, as our manufacturing footprint continues to grow, so does our supply chain. In the U.S., we recently expanded our agreement with Vitro Architectural Glass, which is investing in upgrading existing facilities in the United States to produce glass for our solar panels. The expanded capacity commitment from Vitro to First Solar is expected to commence production in the first quarter of 2026. Today, First Solar is one of the largest consumers of float glass in the United States. As PV manufacturing continues to scale in the U.S. and a premium is placed on domestically produced components, including glass, our early work to build a resilient domestic supply chain, which began in 2019, gives us a significant head start over the competition. Similarly, we expect Onco Solar to manufacture and supply Series 7 module back rails through a new facility in Alabama. This reflects our efforts to de-risk our supply chain with strategic localization. ALCO only uses American-made steel, which aligns with our intent to maximize the domestic economic value created by our U.S. manufacturing footprint. Similarly, our high facility also serves by a steel value chain that is located within a 100-mile radius of our factories. Before handing the call over to Alex, I would like to discuss our policy environment. In the United States, with regards to the Inflation Reduction Act, we continue to await guidance from the Department of Treasury on the Section 45X manufacturing tax credits. We also remain engaged with the administration and continue to work with our customers to ensure that the IRA's Domestic Content Bonus Guideline supports the Act's intent to sustainably grow U.S. solar manufacturing and its supply chains. As we have previously noted, we share our commitment to the current guidance with the administration and are working with our customers to enable their ability to benefit from the bonus credit for using U.S.-made content. We are appreciative of the work done by the Biden administration to provide a solid legislative foundation for domestic solar manufacturing. The IRA has supplied a catalyst for growth, and our goal is to leverage it to help create a position of strength for the country both now and after the term of the incentives. Beyond the IRA, we are also aware of new anti-dumping and counterfeiting duty petitions filed against importers of aluminum extrusions from 15 countries. Consistent with our views on fair trade and the importance of conforming with rules governing trade issues, We will comply with any requests for information from the United States Department of Commerce and the International Trade Commission while we work to understand the potential implications. Moving abroad, we remain engaged with policymakers across Europe as the bloc attempts to tackle serious challenges to its solar manufacturing ambitions. For example, Chinese modular material in Europe stored in warehouses across the region and estimated by analysts to reach 100 gigawatts by the end of the year, is reportedly being sold at prices below its cost to manufacture. This alleged behavior, driven by overcapacity in the Chinese crystal silicon industry, that has decimated international competition over the past decade, represents a serious threat to non-Chinese manufacturing and to ambitions of diversifying solar supply chains away from the dependency on China. It also represents a policy threat potentially undermining the political willingness to deliver the comprehensive trade and industrial legislative solutions necessary to both level the playing field and incentivize domestic manufacturing. We continue to advocate for comprehensive legislation to safeguard any domestic manufacturing ambitions. Our view is that industrial policy related to CapEx benefits alone are insufficient. and that absent sufficient trade policy support to ensure a level playing field, Europe will find it challenging to achieve what the U.S. and India have been able to do in a relatively short period of time. I'll now turn the call over to Alex, who will discuss our bookings, pipeline, and survey report results.
spk12: Thanks, Mark. Beginning on slide five, as of December 31, 2022, a contracted backflow totaled 61.4 gigawatts. with an aggregate value of $17.7 billion. For September 30, 2023, we entered into an additional 23.6 gigawatts of contracts and recognized 7.4 gigawatts of volume sold, resulting in a total contracted backlog of 77.6 gigawatts with an aggregate value of $23 billion, which equates to approximately $0.29.6 per watt. Since the end of the third quarter to date, we've entered into an additional 4.3 gigawatts of contracts contributing to our record total backlog of 81.8 gigawatts. Including our backlog since the previous earnings call, our contracts are approximately one gigawatt or more with returning customer Long Road Energy and new customers, including a new IPP and an asset manager with multiple companies in its portfolio. Additionally, we have received full security against 141 megawatts of previously signed contracts in India, volumes from the contracted subject to conditions precedent grouping within our future opportunities pipeline to our bookings backlog. As noted at Analyst Day, while the AFCs associated with these India bookings are lower than those associated with the 6.6 gigawatts of U.S. bookings since the prior earnings call, gross margin profile, excluding the 45 expenses, is comparable to the sleep average, given the lower production costs at our Chennai facility. Since the announcement of the IRA, we have amended certain existing contracts to provide U.S. manufactured products, as well as to supply domestically produced Series 7 modules in place of Series 6. Consequently, over the past five quarters to the end of Q3 2023, across approximately 11 gigawatts, we've increased our contracted revenue by approximately $354 million, an increase of $42 million from the prior earnings call. As we previously addressed, a substantial portion of our overall backlog includes the opportunity to increase base ASP through the application of adjusters if we're able to realize achievements within our technology roadmap as of the required timing for delivery of the product. As of the end of the third quarter, we had approximately 40.3 gigawatts of contracted volume with these adjusters, which, if fully realized, could result in additional revenue of up to approximately $0.4 billion, or approximately one cent per watt. the majority of which we recognize between 2025 and 2027. As previously discussed, this amount does not include potential adjustments, which are generally applicable to the total contracted backlog, both the ultimate bin produced and delivered to the customer, which may adjust the ASP of the sales contract upwards or downwards, and for increases in sales rate or applicable aluminum or steel commodity price change. Our contracted backlog extends into 2030, and excluding India, we are sold out through 2026. Note that a total of approximately 1.5 gigawatts of production from our India facility is expected to be used to support U.S. deliveries in 2024-2025. As reflected on slide 6, our pipeline potential bookings remains robust. Total bookings opportunities are 65.9 gigawatts, a decrease of approximately 12.4 gigawatts as the previous quarter. Our mid- to late-stage opportunities decreased by approximately 16 gigawatts to 32.5 gigawatts, and includes 27.1 gigawatts in North America, 3.8 gigawatts in India, 1.3 gigawatts in the EU, and 0.3 gigawatts across all other geographies. Decreases in our total mid- to late-stage pipeline in Q2 to Q3 result both while converting certain opportunities to bookings, as well as the removal of certain other opportunities given our sold-out position and diminished available supply. As we previously stated, given this diminished available supply, the long-dated timeframe into which we are now selling, and aligning customer project visibility with our balanced approach to ASPs, field security, and other key contractual terms, we would expect to see a reduction in new booking volumes in upcoming quarters. We will continue to forward contract with customers who prioritize long-term relationships and value our differentiations. Given the strength and duration of our contracted backlog, we will be strategic and selective in our approach to future contracts. Included within our mid- to late-stage pipeline are 5.1 gigawatts of opportunities that are contracted subject to conditions present, which includes 1.7 gigawatts in India. Given the shorter timeframe between contracting and product delivery in India relative to other markets, we would not expect the same multi-year contract commitment to be recurrently seen in the UN. As a reminder, signed contracts in India will not be recognized as bookings until we have received full security against the Arctic. So in slide 7, I'll cover our financial results for the third quarter. Net sales in the third quarter were $801 million, a decrease of $10 million compared to the second quarter. Decrease in net sales was primarily driven by lower non-module revenue associated with project turnouts from our former systems business. As well as within the module segment, a slight reduction in volume sold possibly offset by an increase in ASPs as we continue to see favorable pricing trends. Gross margin was 47% in the third quarter, compared to 38% in the second quarter. This increase is primarily driven by higher module ASPs, lower sales rate costs, and higher volumes of modules produced sold in the U.S., resulting in additional credits from the inflation reduction end. Previously mentioned, based on our differentiated vertically integrated manufacturing model, current form facts of our modules, we expect to qualify for an IRA credit of approximately 17 cents per watt for each module produced in the US and sold to a third party, which is recognized as a reduction to cost of sales in the period of sale. During the third quarter, we recognize 205 million of such credits compared to 155 million in the second quarter. We encourage you to review the safe harvest statements contained in today's press release and presentation the IRA. Continued reduction of sales rate costs during the quarter reflected improved ocean and land rates, along with a beneficial domestic versus international mix of volume sold. Lower sales rate costs reduced gross margin by 7 percentage points during the third quarter and made it 8 percentage points in the second quarter. Rather than other utilization costs, which include costs associated with operating a new factory for lower target utilization and performance level, million in the second quarter. Ramp costs reduced gross margin by 3 percentage points during the third quarter, compared to 4 percentage points during the second quarter. Our year-to-date ramp costs are primarily attributed to our Series 7 factory in Ohio, which is expected to reach its initial target operating capacity later this year, and our new Series 7 factory in India, which commenced production during the quarter. SE&A and R&D expenses total 91 million in the third quarter, an increase of 8 million compared to This increase is primarily driven by expected credit losses associated with our higher accounts receivable balance, additional investments in our R&D capabilities, costs relating to the implementation and support of our new global enterprise resource practices. Production start expense, which is included in operating expenses, was $12 million in the third quarter, a decrease of approximately $11 million compared to the second quarter. This decrease was attributable to the start of production in our factory in India. partially offset by certain startup activities for our new series 7 factory in Alabama. Our third quarter operating results did not include any significant non-module activity. However, the year-to-date operating loss impact from the legacy systems business-related activities remains at approximately $22 million. Our third quarter operating income was $273 million, which included depreciation, amortization, and accretion of $78 million, grant costs of $25 million, production target expense of $12 million, and share-based compensation expense of $8 million. We recorded tax expense of $22 million in the third quarter, and tax expense of $18 million in the second quarter, primarily driven by higher pre-tax income. Combination of the aforementioned items led to a third quarter diluted earnings per share of $2.50, compared to $1.59 in the second quarter. Next on to slide eight, discuss selected items and summary cash flow information. Our cash, cash equivalents, restricted cash, restricted cash equivalents, and marketable securities ended the quarter at $1.8 billion, then $1.9 billion at the end of the prior quarter. This decrease was primarily driven by capital expenditures associated with our new facilities in Ohio, Alabama, and India, along with our higher accounts receivable balance, partially offset by advanced payments received from future marketable sales. Total debt at the end of the third quarter was $499 million, an increase of $62 million in the second quarter. as a result of the final loan drawdown and credit facility for our factory in India. Our net cash position decreased by approximately $0.2 billion to $1.3 billion as a result of the aforementioned factors. Cash flows for operations were $165 million in the third quarter. Global liquidity and the strength of our balance sheet remains one of our key differentiating factors. However, as discussed on our analyst day, the majority of our cash sits offshore, while the majority of our forecasted future capex spend between 2024 and 2026 is in the United States. As we invest significantly in the U.S. manufacturing ahead of any IRA cash proceeds, we continue to evaluate options to optimally balance this expected temporary jurisdictional cash imbalance, which includes cash repatriation, use of our existing undrawn revolving credit facility, or other sources of capex. While to expect our $1 billion of revolver capacity to provide sufficient liquidity, we continue to evaluate other options to optimize cost of capital for any bridge financing. On slide 9, this is our guidance update. Our volume sold and net sales guidance remains unchanged. Within gross margin, we are reducing the high end of our forecasted ramp under the utilization expenses by $10 million, between $110 and $120 million. and narrowing the range of our Section 45X tax credit guidance by $10 million, both for low and high-end, to between $670 and $700 million. Given their size, these combined changes do not impact our guided gross margin range of $1.2 to $1.3 billion. We've reduced our production startup expenses guidance to $75 to $85 million, which implies operating expenses guidance of $440 to $470. Combining these changes provides some resiliency to the low end of both the operating income guidance range, which is updated to $770 to $870 million, and the earnings per share guidance range, which is updated to $7.20 to $8. Net cash and capital expenditures guidance remains unchanged.
spk11: On slide 10, I'll summarize the key messages from today's call.
spk12: Demand continues to be robust, with 27.8 gigawatts of net bookings year-to-date, including 6.8 gigawatts of net bookings since our last earnings call, and an average ASP $0.30 for one, including India. And before the application, adjusters were applicable, leading to a record contracted backlog of 81.8 gigawatts. A continued focus on manufacturing technology excellence resulted in a record quarterly production of 3.2 gigawatts. India manufacturing facility commenced production, and our Alabama, Louisiana, and Ohio manufacturing expansions remain on schedule. Financially, we're on $2.50 per diluted share, and we ended the quarter with a gross balance of $1.8 billion, with $1.3 billion net debt. We maintained full year 2023 revenue guidance and raised the midpoint of our EPS guidance from $7.50 to $7.60. With that, we conclude our prepared remarks and open the floor for questions.
spk11: Operator?
spk05: As a reminder, if you would like to ask a question, please press star 1 on your telephone keypad and please limit to one question. Your first question comes from the line of Philip Shen from Roth MKM.
spk04: Please go ahead. Philip, your line is open.
spk02: Hey, guys. Thanks for taking the questions. Congrats on the strong bookings at what appears to be strong pricing. Mark, can you talk through the pricing at 30 cents a watt? That's without India. And I think the prior quarter, there was some nuance around a contract without freight. And so if you adjusted that where you typically include freight, was your prior pricing kind of closer to 31 cents? So you guys are sitting closer to 30 cents this quarter. So maybe a bit of a drop, but really compared to the crystal and silicon price collapse, it looks like you're holding price pretty well. And then looking ahead, I think you guys said you may be selective and strategic with bookings. So should we expect things to slow down from here and maybe fewer bookings in general coming up in this full quarter here, Q4, and maybe in Q1 as well? especially since, you know, UFLPA module, UFLPA compliance module pricing has come down so much there. So just curious what you expect ahead there as well. Thanks.
spk13: Yeah, so from a pricing standpoint, Bill, if you look at the bookings for this quarter, go all the way out into 2029. So it's heavily weighted in actually 2029. And so you're booking much further out in the horizons. which also kind of creates this dynamic of what is our base price and then what is the impact of the adders, which, as we indicated, the $0.30 excluding India does not include the adders, and 70% of the bond includes adders. And they're in a horizon that, especially for the benefits of temperature coefficient and long-term degradation rate, they will be in a much better position to capture those upsides. And as we indicated in the call, We're starting our initial Wi-Fi production already in Ohio. And so when you look at the impact to the average ASP, if you were to include the benefit of the adders to and marry that up and align it to our technology roadmap, as I indicated in my prepared remarks, you'd add about two cents or so to the ASP. So, you know, when you make that adjustment, you compare the last quarter, you look at the period at which we're booking out into, what I would say is the pricing is pretty stable And you're right, last quarter we had a relatively large deal that did not include sales rates, so there was a little bit of an impact to the average ASP because of that. But I would say largely it's pretty stable. We're very pleased with our ability to go further out into the horizon and still get very attractive pricing in the backdrop of a lot of changes in the very dynamic environment over the last 60, 90 days. As it relates to the comment about being disciplined, we are going to continue to be disciplined. We are still supply constrained. We have a roadmap that will get us to 25 gigawatts. We're starting to see 27 fill up very nicely and starting to put more points on the board that go out 28, 29, and you'll be able to touch 30 in some of the prior deals that we've done. If we come to terms with customers on what makes sense for us, not just on ASP, but security, overall terms and conditions, provisions to the extent they're applicable to domestic content. You know, all that has to balance itself out into a deal that makes sense for us. And so, look, that's how we're going to continue to engage the market. And there's, you know, we'll see how the market reacts. And especially the further you go into the horizon, you know, there will probably be some, you know, pause to some of our customers not wanting to commit yet to that horizon. But we'll see how it plays out. But there's potential. We would see bookings to stabilize where they are now and maybe potentially decline slightly as we'll cross the next several quarters.
spk05: Your next question comes from the line of Julian Dumoulin-Smith from Bank of America. Please go ahead.
spk08: Hey guys, it's Alex on for Julian. Just to follow up, if I can, to that, Mark, you know, when you think about where you guys are booking, and I'll say this, like, you guys used to be in the development game as well. So I think, you know, you obviously understand the lead times on these projects. I mean, how much is that mid to late stage compression, you know, a function of just, listen, there's a lot of uncertainty as far as you know, timing of interconnects, permitting, et cetera, and looking out in 2028, it's sort of hard to say which projects will, you know, will be first versus second versus third, or is this more that the market is kind of getting back to some level of normalcy as far as supply and demand of modules and buyers are just I guess sort of parse that for us relative to it just being really long dated as opposed to a sort of a shift in buyer sentiment or market conditions, if you will. Thanks.
spk13: I don't see it as a huge shift in our customers' sentiment as they think about their realization against their development pipeline. challenges, you indicated permitting, interconnection, and what have you, but I think they all still are very bullish about the ability to realize their contracted pipeline and secure, you know, offtake agreements. The issue, I think, is around when do you actually, first off, if we're contracting for module deliveries in 28, 29, and we're asking for security, you know, clearly, project's not in a condition at that point in time where they would be able to get financing put in place. So you're talking about corporate liquidity capacity that's going to have to be used in order to provide the security, whether it's parent guarantee, NLC, or actual cash. As you know, the project has to be much further along as it relates to financing debt and tax equity before that liquidity is brought into the mix at the project level. So I think part of it is wanting to have the certainty of the delivery, but in balancing that with capacity from a security standpoint that we're requiring on our contracts. And it's just a matter of finding a good balance that can work. Parent guarantees for certain entities can work, but we want to make sure their credit issued against, and that's sometimes where some of our customers become a little bit more challenging. So you kind of got this balance of wanting certainty, wanting to engage, clearly want to partner with First Solar, and you also know that we're a loyal supplier to especially our partners that have been with us for an extended period of time, but then also balancing their near-term liquidity constraints to the extent that they have them and when do they want to enter into the contract. So I don't see it so much as a sentiment to realization against the development pipeline. I just think it's you're going out to the horizon right now that, you know, people are maybe not as, you know, ready yet to commit, you know, capital and commit to the liquidity that we need to get comfortable with around security for the module agreement.
spk12: Two other things I might note. One is at the analyst day, we talked around the fact that we actually over-allocate in the near term. And we do that deliberately because we tend to see projects move out to the right. That gives us some comfort. The other reason we do that is a lot of our recent bookings have been framework agreements with customers whereby they don't necessarily have a specific project allocating the modules they're buying from us. They just know they're going to need that total volume over a period of time. And those frameworks can be more challenging to plan for because there is often some flexibility in timing there. But it also shows that customers in very long-dated bookings are willing to buy without necessarily knowing exactly where the product's going because they value that certainty and they know that over time they'll find a home for it. So we've been seeing a lot more of that behavior, which runs a little counter to your question, I think. But we're seeing people booking out at times where they don't necessarily know exactly where it's going, but they're still willing to make that commitment because of the value for them doing so. But as Mark said, the further we get out, the fact that we're now booking out into 2028, 2029, it becomes harder for people We talked about potentially seeing logging slower.
spk05: Your next question comes from the line of Brian Lee from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
spk00: Hi, thanks for taking the questions. This is Grace on for Brian. I guess my question on competition. So one of your crystal lines that appears recently announced a 5 gigawatt cell expansion. I think it's the first sign of competition. vertical integration from China in the U.S. I think the CapEx was like about $1 billion for that 5 gigawatt or so. So the CapEx is lower, but can you speak to your understanding of the cost structure for overseas peer in-building manufacturing in the U.S. and how your Series 7s compare? Thanks.
spk13: Sure. So there's a lot out there. Yes, there's an announcement that was made recently this week more of our competitors that will be putting cells in the U.S. And look, there are others that are doing cells in the U.S. Meyerberger has made a commitment to do cells in the U.S. Hamill QCell is doing cells in the U.S., but not alone from that standpoint. But one thing I want to make sure is clear, and you said vertically integrated. It's not vertically integrated all the way through to, you know, the polysilicon. So, yes, it's a module assembly with cell manufacturing systems. The wafers still are not manufactured in the U.S. The ingots, obviously not in the U.S. It ignores the uncertainty of exactly where the polysilicon is coming from. It could be from the U.S. manufacturer or potentially Europe or Korea, I guess. So it's not an apples-to-apples comparison. What I'll say is that if you look at the announcement that they made, it was about $800 million for the cell and a few hundred million, two, three hundred million for the module, which is pretty comparable to our fully vertically integrated. So they're about 1.1 billion, but what I think is maybe the most telling number to look at from a competitive standpoint is the headcount. I think it's four or five gigawatts is 2,700 heads for just cell and module. We are on a roadmap that will be 14 gigawatts of fully vertically integrated. So think about that from the production of the polysilicon all the way forward. And our entire headcount for 14 gigawatts in the U.S. will be comparable to that 2,700. So on a headcount basis, they're about two and a half times higher on a headcount basis than we are. That adds about two, two and a half cents on a cost per watt basis using kind of U.S. labor rates. So I think that's one thing for sure that will create a much higher cost profile for that manufacturer in the U.S. The other is they don't have a local supply chain. As we indicated in our call, we have localized our supply chain. We have been in front of that game. So our glass is here in the U.S. As we indicated, our bath rails on Series 7 are here in the U.S. The 10 components or so that are identified through the domestic content from underneath the IRA. All of our components for our Series 7 product will be made in the U.S. That factory will most likely have one, at least one major component. Glass is not going to be available in the U.S. There are no hadron glass manufacturers today in the U.S. It could happen, but it would be much more expensive than it would be to source from Southeast Asia or China. but then they have to pay the freight, and it's expensive to ship the last, which is heavy, from Southeast Asia or China into the U.S. They're also going to have to potentially deal with duties, not different than the comment that we made on our remarks. There are duties now that are being considered for extruded aluminum, and there's potential that it could be applicable to the frame. Our Series 7 product, as an example, does not use aluminum extruders. So I am very confident, and this is one of the things that we've said before, is that all we want is a level playing field that we all compete on the same basis and under the same policy environment. As long as we have that, I have no doubt that we are materially cost advantage to any other U.S. manufacturer for the various reasons that I've mentioned. We feel like we're in a position of strength We believe that we have a key point of appreciation around our manufacturing excellence, and we're more happy to compete with anyone who chooses to manufacture in the U.S., and we welcome it. We believe the IRA, in order to be successful, is to create a diversified supply chain with many different types of technology, for instance, silicon, whether it's cattail or eventually perovskites or others. We need that. If we want to ensure long-term energy independence and security and for the U.S. to become a technology leader, we need more manufacturing, we need more innovation, different types of technologies to continue to move us forward.
spk05: Your next question comes from the line of Joseph Osha from Guggenheim Partners. Please go ahead.
spk07: Thank you, and hello, everyone. Happy Halloween. Following on the previous question, assuming that most of what we see in the U.S. is going to be modules sourced with domestic cell, but almost certainly overseas wafer and poly, based on what you see right now, can you see those suppliers managing to meet domestic content requirements under the IRA? And if so, just why or why not? I'm curious as to what your thinking is on that.
spk13: So as we currently understand the supply chain and the availability of the domestically sourced components that were identified under the IRA domestic content guidance that was provided, the only readily identifiable component that we believe, I mean, there could be some small stuff like adhesives and stuff like that, but that's not going to move the needle. But most likely the only really component that will move the needle and that will drive some meaningful amount of domestic content will be the cell. If you look at this most recent announcement, I think they said they'll be up and running by the end of 25, which means largely that those cells would be available for production and shipment and then eventually installation into or assembled into modules and then eventually installation into a project in 26. And I believe the requirements under IRA and 26 is close to, I think it's 50%. So they have to, so you're starting off at 40% domestic content and it steps its way up all the way to 55%. So they've got a window now that by the time they can actually realize the benefit of domestic content, that requirements will be at a higher threshold than it is right now. At least the math that we run, just looking at the cell and understanding the direct material, direct labor costs, of the Crystal Silicon module, it would be very difficult for the cell-only domestically sourced module to meet the project level requirements to achieve the domestic content bonus. Series 7, as I indicated, which is the vast majority of our 14 gigawatts of domestic production, is 100% domestically sourced. Therefore, it qualifies as a domestic product. it will be materially advantaged in enabling of domestic content bonus at the project level versus just a crisp and silicon module with a domestically sourced cell.
spk05: Your next question comes from the line of Vikram Begri from CIDI. Please go ahead.
spk04: Vikram, your line is live.
spk01: Sorry about that. Good evening, everyone. I wanted to ask about capital allocation. At the end of the day, we understood that there is some downside to tech capex by implementing some processes at the supplier level. Any updates to share there? Also, Alex, you mentioned that repatriating cash, it sounds like, is not the most efficient path to fund capex in the U.S. Tell me what the cost of repatriation is. And staying on the same topic, I understand that funding buybacks with IRA cash is not on the table yet. I was wondering if repatriating the cash longer term can fund buybacks longer term. And then finally, I was wondering if common equity is still off the table completely. Thank you.
spk13: I'll take the first one and Alex will take all the rest of them. So yes, we are still working through with our supplier to enable various coding capabilities that would result in us not having to make substantial capital investments related to our upgrades for our pure technology. Testing is ongoing. What I'll say is the early indications, a long way still to go. I want to make sure it's very clear it's a long way still to go. But early indications and what we've seen so far is very promising. be able to find a way to provide or to have a supplier provide the coatings to the glass without us having to do it on our own. Now look, there's some trade-offs with that. It's not just the CapEx dollars. It's also the opportunity to further optimize the buffer layer, which is what they've been putting on to capture better performance at the semiconductor level. So we'll have to continue to assess the respective trade-offs, but I would say at least as of right now, early, early innings. I want to continue to stress that there's a pretty positive indication of their capabilities in that regard.
spk12: But if you think about CapEx, at the end of the day, we showed you a CapEx plan for 24, 5, and 6. It was somewhere in the range of $3.5 to $4 billion to spend. As Mark just said, there's early indications that there's an opportunity potentially for some of the technology-related CapEx to come down a little bit. However, if you think about the near term, the majority of the spend for 2024 was not related to that. It was capacity expansion, R&D facility interest, maintenance and sustain CapEx. So the guide that we've talked about in the analyst day of 1.6 to 1.9 for next year doesn't have a lot related to that technology, not a little bit. As you get into the outer years, there's more technology related. So if there is an opportunity to bring that down, it's going to be more in back end of 25 and into 2026. So as we look through next year's capital standard program, still a significant CapEx program that we're looking at. But I think through how to fund that, If you go back to the tax reform of 2017, what that effectively did was you paid a one-time transition tax, which is the equivalent of paying federal tax as though you were repatriating the money. So the federal expense is basically done. However, there would be state and local tax implications of bringing money back. So today we assert that we permanently invest our capital offshore. If we were to change that assertion and bring capital back, there wouldn't necessarily be a tax impact until the capital is brought back, but you would see an impact tax expense on the P&L at the time you change that assertion. So I haven't given a number of what that would be, but there would be some potentially significant state and local tax implications of doing that at the time. In terms of thinking about other ways of funding, look, what we said right now is what we need is transition capital, temporary capital. I don't see any for equity today. But what we're looking at is things that will help us bridge through the gap between the significant investments we're making now up front and the timing of receipt of the cash associated with the Section 45X credit. As I said at the analyst day, if we had that cash in hand at the same time that we recognized the tax benefit on the P&L, then we wouldn't have this potential challenge of jurisdictional mix and temporary transition timing. But the need for equity I don't see today. Then to your question around buybacks, look, we haven't looked at that. I think we're a long way from being in a position where we need to if you can cap it to spend over the next few years. So as I said, the IRA capital is not coming in yet. So we'll think about that when the time comes, but that's not where we're at right now. Right now we're getting to an investment cycle.
spk05: Your next question comes from the line of Colin Rush from Oppenheimer & Company. Please go ahead.
spk10: Thanks so much, guys. Can you talk about how much finished goods inventory you regulated the quarter with? and where you're at right now in terms of the nameplate run rate in India.
spk13: So let me ask you, Colin. So you want to know the enterprise-wise finished good inventory amounts? That's a question not just India, right?
spk10: Yeah, that's for the whole company and then understanding where you're at in terms of the production run rate in India right now.
spk13: Yeah, so for the total for the company, we ended up with north of three gigawatts in inventory. But right now, as we indicated, we produce about 150 megawatts or so in India. All that is actually in inventory. We don't have the certifications yet to allow us to start shipping. So there was a spike in inventory partly because of that. But it lines up to our, you know, if you look at our sold volume in the fourth quarter, I think, or gigawatts or something like that. So that inventory is lining up to our anticipated shipments here in the fourth quarter. But India has indicated, you know, from a demonstrated capability, you know, they demonstrated almost 80% of nameplate. They're actually running at right now about 70%. a little less than 70% of the name plate. And look, that's a tremendous result when I look at it, because we just started the integrated run of that factory in July, and we're three months or so out, and we're making 10,000 modules a day. That was obviously a step function improvement, but it's great to see where it demonstrated that ability to make 10,000 finished modules on a given day, not just demonstrate a capability that we can do that. And we did that from a standpoint of, as I referred to, that startup was largely, you know, a cold start. We weren't able to because of various permitting restrictions and things that needed to happen. We couldn't really start running and seasoning any of the tools until we got to the point of actually starting the integrated run that very quickly moved into our plant fall process. So a really good result. Hopefully that's a forward-looking indicator of success that we'll see. As we move forward into our Alabama factory and our Louisiana factory, and again, our goal is always to start these factories up sooner and faster than we had the previous one. And I would say at least indications from Ohio going to India is pretty successful so far. A long way still to go, a lot of work still in front of us, but pretty happy with how that factory is performing right now.
spk05: Your next question comes from the line of Ben Callow from Baird. Please go ahead.
spk06: Hey, Mark. Just on that note, I guess the question is twofold. What do we think about your customers breaking contracts? Is that going to happen? Someone's going to open up a factory in Indiana or something like that. And how do we know that's not a risk? And number two, what you said there is, you know, the speed to time of your factories, I think, is getting better as they get more automated. And how does that factor into your whatever, ROIC or however you look at it?
spk13: You know, Ben, I think, you know, one of the deals that we just did this quarter, I think there may be a press release this week, you know, is we added another 500 megawatts onto a deal with a partner we've had for a while. I think it brings a total of north of three gigawatts that we've done with this particular partner. And there's just this relationship and understanding of value propositions ability to deliver certainty and commitments that people look to and want to de-risk their projects. I mean, that's their primary focus. You know, these projects are meaningful multi-year investments with meaningful amount of capital and that are starting to evolve now with, you know, higher CapEx dollars for integration of storage and eventually integration for hydrogen that at the front end of what you need in order to make that project successful is something has to take photons and to make electrons. Otherwise, nothing happens. And, you know, what our partners want from us is certainty. They want us to give them a competitive technology at a great price that de-risks their projects and allows them a higher level of confidence of delivering against their commitments to their board and to their shareholders and others. First Solar is able to do that. We're uniquely positioned. We're also uniquely positioned to provide, we believe, with Series 7 in particular, the highest domestic content qualifying module in the industry. To take risk, to try to find ways to look at alternative paths that have degrees of uncertainty associated with them, it's not even clear that that factory that you're referencing will actually be up and running in the timeline of which it's been committed. The other thing is, you know, a portion of that off-tape is going to be for self-consumption for their development arm, no different than the factory in Ohio, which, you know, is an equity investor that is looking to take a meaningful amount of that volume for their own development pipeline. You know, that creates a different perception to some of our partners around why do I want to buy technology or modules from a competitor, right? Somebody that's going to be competing with me, which my primary business model is to be a developer. Primary business model is to be the IPP, the utility, to own the generated assets, to get the return on investment against the project, you know, to feed my competitor, to better position them to take market share from me is not a position of strength that a lot of our partners choose to be in. And there's still uncertainty. I mean, there's a lot of things that are changing, you know, as it relates to, and I mentioned already, the potential duties imposed on, you know, distributed aluminum coming in from China and Southeast Asia. You know, that's another risk profile that somebody has to be willing to expect. It could be glass next. I mean, who knows what the next step in the journey is going to be. And all our partners know is that with First Solar, They completely de-risk those dimensions, and they've got a great partner who's going to deliver a great product, great technology at a great price on top. So that's the sense of where our customers, I think, view us. And our contracts, yes, we have penalties, and there's ways to potentially pay those penalties, and customers potentially could break a contract, and we'll take those penalties, and we'll look to sell that technology on into the marketplace to somebody else. But when they step back and reflect the significant amount of risk that they would be taking for small nominal impact that is uncertain whether it's even a meaningful impact. It could even be a worse opposition for them, especially if they're jeopardizing the domestic content on your ITC. You know, why would you want to do all that brain damage for potentially the lowest any benefit or put yourself in a worse position? You know, as it relates to the factories and the startups, I mean, you know, the ROIC, every one of these factories that we start up sooner just accelerates the ROIC, especially for a U.S. manufacturer. That means we get more IRA dollars faster, you know, and so anything we can do to get product into the market faster just enhances the return on invested capital. And as we see that ability, then, you know, as we think about alternatives for another factory, yeah, we'll factor that in and say that our ability from announcement to high-volume manufacturing, if it's a shorter timeline, then it potentially creates a lens that says that the payback in the ROC would be more attractive for manufacturing.
spk12: Just to put a couple of numbers around the termination piece, we said in our analyst day that about 14% of the megawatts in our backlog at that point were subject to a termination for convenience costs. If you look at that, I mean, 86% of our backlog at that point had no ability to terminate a contract short of default. Now, we can never stop people trying to default out of a contract, but if there's a default scenario, a developer then puts themselves in a very difficult position because they have an ongoing dispute and a contractual breach, which would make it very hard for them to seek financing and tax equity for a project going forward. So for the vast majority of our backlog, there is no ability to terminate book obedience. For those contracts that we do have that clause, which typically is when we have larger, long-dated contracts and we have a small portion of that, where we subject some of the megawatts for convenience. We then have an agreed fee, typically up to 20%, which we look to collect, and the idea there being that we could then resell those modules and be at least made whole in that transaction. So just to give you some color around the numbers.
spk05: Our final question comes from Andrew Percoco from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
spk09: Mark, you sort of answered my question already, but I kind of just want to dive into the cost of capital environment. It's obviously having an impact on the market or the perceived economics of renewables. So I'm just wondering if you're seeing any developers or customers that maybe haven't been big for solar customers historically that are maybe turning to your technology because maybe they see your technology and your supply chain as more bankable than someone else. you know, UFLPA, ADCVD, you know, combined with a more expensive cost of capital environment. I'm just wondering if that's becoming a bigger competitive advantage than it maybe was a year or two ago. Thank you.
spk13: Yeah, I think Alex actually referenced it in his section, but, you know, if you look at our bookings this last quarter, we had – we highlighted three large contracts that were over a gigawatt in the total bookings. One of them is a return customer. that we made an announcement on with Long Road Energy. I think we made that right around the RE plus, September, around September time frame. But then we announced there was two other new customers. One is an IPP and another is effectively an asset management entity with a portfolio company of multiple developers, both new customers, right? And we're very happy with those in the first with those counterparties. And look, they've come to First Solar for understanding of the unique value proposition and what we can provide. One of them in particular I know would have liked to have gotten on First Solar's books earlier. We just didn't have capacity. And so now when they look forward and they see there is some supply to get out in 27, 28, 29, they want to secure some of that supply. In 26 in particular, we didn't have a supply. So, yeah, I do think that the environment that we're in right now in first-order capabilities and value proposition, I think, are more compelling and is driving new customers into our portfolio and our overall, you know, contracted backlog, which is, you know, now north of 80 gigawatts. I mean, just so that I can reflect on that number, I mean, that's huge. multi-year contracted backlog and commitments with dozens of different partners that uniquely understand First Solar and understand the proposition that we can create that enable the success of their business model.
spk05: And this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation and you may now disconnect.
Disclaimer