Frontdoor, Inc.

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to Front Door's Third Quarter 2024 earnings call. Today's call is being recorded and broadcast on the Internet. Beginning today's call is Matt Davis, Vice President of Investor Relations and Treasurer, and he will introduce the other speakers on the call. At this time, we'll begin today's call. Please go ahead, Mr. Davis.

Thank you, operator. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining Front Door's Third Quarter 2024 earnings conference call. And a special thank you for joining the Monday before the election. Joining me today are Front Door's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Bill Cobb, and Front Door's Chief Financial Officer, Jessica Ross. The press release and slide presentation that will be used during today's call can be found on the investor relations section of Front Door's website, which is located at .frontdoorhome.com. There is also additional detail about our Front Door brand at frontdoor.com and in our new mobile app that you can download in the App Store and at Google Play. As stated on slide three of the presentation, I'd like to remind you that this call and webcast may contain forward-looking statements. These statements are subject to various risks and uncertainties, which could cause actual results to differ materially from those discussed here today. These risk factors are explained in detail in the company's filings with the SEC. Please refer to the risk factor section in our filings for a more detailed discussion of our forward-looking statements and the risks and uncertainties related to such statements. All forward-looking statements are made as of today, November 4th, and except as required by law, the company undertakes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise. We will also reference certain non-GAAP financial measures throughout today's call. We have included definitions of these terms and reconciliations of these non-GAAP financial measures to their most comparable GAAP financial measures in our press release and the appendix to the presentation in order to better assist you in understanding our financial performance. I will now turn the call over to Bill Cobb for opening

comments. Bill? Thanks, Matt Davis, and good morning, everyone. I want to start by highlighting our dramatic improvement over the last two plus years. When I came into the business in 2022, our gross margins were at an all-time low of 43%. That has changed. Today, we are increasing our 2024 gross margin outlook to about 53% in all-time high. Not many companies can show an over 1,000 basis point margin improvement in such a short time frame. Turning to slide five, we delivered record financial performance in the third quarter. Revenue increased 3% to $540 million. Gross profit margin expanded 550 basis points to 57%. Net income grew 40% to $100 million. Adjusted EBITDA grew 29% to $165 million. And we have used $119 million to repurchase 3.2 million shares year to date through August. And probably the best news of all, as we will show you shortly, our marketing and discounting efforts are working. The DTC customer count actually grew in the third quarter versus the second quarter, and we are now forecasting that our ending 2024 DTC customer count will be in line with the year ago. This is the progress we have been working for. While we are very pleased with the recent trajectory of the DTC business, growing our home warranty customer base continues to be our number one strategic priority. Our other key strategic priorities are to expand our on-demand business and to close the acquisition of 210 homebuyers' warranty. Speaking of the acquisition, our integration team continues to work with 210 to prepare for a smooth transition. The regulatory approval process is nearing completion, and we are now just waiting for approval from California. Bottom line, the acquisition remains on track to close in the fourth quarter. Okay, so here's how I'm going to lay out the next few minutes. First, I'm going to discuss what's happening with home warranties in both the real estate and DTC channels, followed by our momentum in on-demand, then renewals, and finally a major milestone in our customer experience journey, the new AHS app. Starting with real estate, the market continues to flounder. According to the September report from the National Association of Realtors, or NAR, the annual run rate of home sales decreased to 3.8 million homes, the lowest in 14 years. Additionally, mortgage rates and home prices remain elevated. Simply put, with fewer homes being sold, there are fewer opportunities to attach a home warranty. For some context, our first year real estate customer count is down almost 14% in the third quarter versus the prior year, and down more than half from five years ago. But there is some positive momentum, some positive movement. Existing home inventory is rising. Now at 4.3 months of supply, which is the highest it's been in the last four years. Further, mortgage rates are down from a year ago. Finally, American Home Shield has continued to maintain its category-leading share of warranties attached to home purchases. Turning to slide 11 and the -to-consumer channel, let's start with the performance of the marketing campaign. In short, it is working. For starters, we have significantly grown AHS-aided brand awareness. It's jumped from 39% in 2022 to over 54% today due to the brand relaunch and marketing campaign. Ad awareness is also up. Recent research shows that about 40% of homeowners now recognize at least one of the three warranty and TV spots. In a crowded media space, that's a very good number. Google searches for AHS are also up year over year, but I need to make a key point here. There has been some confusion that searches are down according to Google Trends. Let me provide some clarity. Google Trends is a snapshot of how popular your search term is relative to all search terms. It is not representative of a specific brand's performance over time. Even Google says you should not use Google Trends for insights or predictive analytics. So the fact is Google searches for AHS are actually up through September. How do we know that? We get our information directly from Google, and we certainly do pay for that. This information represents true volume over time and is much more brand specific, accurate, and comprehensive. So to be clear, the first year of the campaign has been successful. As we move forward into the second phase of the AHS marketing campaign, we will continue to build brand awareness in 2025 through a more focused and targeted approach that builds consideration and grows leads. We will share these plans in much more detail at our Investor Day in New York on February 27th. We are also optimizing our price discounting strategy. This is what smart brands do. In times of market softness, brands must adjust to changing consumer behavior. To be clear, we are not relying solely on aggressive discounting. We understand it's not a long-term strategy, but it's where we are seeing strong demand and conversion. In summary, within the DTC channel, awareness is up, brand searches are up, demand and conversion are up, and our customer count is up. Again, this is what we have been working toward. Now let me step away from our traditional home warranty business and talk about our on-demand business. We expect to generate over $100 million in on-demand revenue this year, primarily due to our new HVAC program, which continues to deliver great results. Regarding our new partnership with Moen, as announced in our press release last week, we are currently expanding that business to seven additional states. In addition to California, Front Door will soon be the exclusive installer of Moen Smart Shutoff in Idaho, Arizona, Utah, Oregon, Texas, Georgia, and South Carolina. We are also making excellent progress on marketing DTC home warranties to different demographics and channels of distribution. AARP is a great example of an alternative way to go to market. By targeting different segments of their membership, we have been able to grow unit sales with AARP by 25% -over-year. Now, turning to renewals, this continues to be a great story for us. Retention rates in the third quarter improved 150 basis points to a record high of 77.7%. That is amazing. While Channel Mixed Shift is the primary driver, this improvement is also the result of a lot of tremendous work by our team, improving customer service, expanding use of preferred contractors, getting more members on auto pay, and increasing member engagement throughout the customer journey. Finally, one of the things I'm most excited about is the progress we are making on enhancing our customer experience. In a major milestone, we launched an AHS app a few days ago. This is a big deal and we will make our formal public announcement on Thursday. With easy, convenient service right at their fingertips, our members can now quickly access their account and plan information, make and track their service requests, take advantage of special offers, and manage their payment information, all to the convenience of their phone. We will have additional enhancements to the app over the coming months. We believe these enhancements will further differentiate American Home Shield from the competition. We are super excited about the app and I encourage everyone listening to download the app now through Google Play or the App Store. I think you'll be impressed. So with that, I'll now turn the call over to Jessica for more on our record third quarter financials. Jessica?

Thanks, Bill, and good morning, everyone. I want to start with a clear message to all of our stakeholders. Front door's financial position has never been stronger. We delivered another exceptional adjusted EBITDA beat. We increased our full year outlook for the second time this year. We are generating a record amount of cash and we remain focused on returning that cash to investors through share repurchases. Specific to our third quarter financial summary on slide 15, you will see that revenue increased 3% versus the prior year period to $540 million. Net income increased 40% to $100 million and adjusted EBITDA increased 29% to $160 million. Let's take a moment to review our third quarter revenue, which landed at $540 million versus our guided midpoint of about $537 million. This is a beat of almost $3 million. Now on slide 16, you will see gross profit increased 14% versus the prior year period to $306 million. Let's now move to the adjusted EBITDA bridge on slide 17. Starting at the top, we had $17 million of favorable revenue conversion driven by a 4% increase in price over the prior year period. This was partially offset by a 1% decline in volume. As a reminder, this includes the impact of a lower home warranty volume, which was partially offset by an $11 million increase in non-warranty sales. Turning to contract claims costs, which decreased $21 million. This was primarily driven by a lower number of service requests per customer, a transition to higher trade service fees, and continued process improvement initiatives. Let's now take a moment to unpack each of those. Third quarter customer incidence rates were some of the lowest that we have ever seen, primarily due to three reasons. First, we had $14 million of favorable weather as cooling degree days were down 16% versus the prior year period. Second, we have made significant process improvements over the last two years and we are now executing better than ever. We are doing a better job of getting the right contractor to the right customer at the right time, which results in a better customer experience and reduces costs and noise in our system. Some of the process improvements include, A, moving more of our service requests to preferred contractors. We had a record third quarter high with 85% of our jobs going to preferred contractors. This is an outstanding result, especially given that this was in the middle of our peak summer season. B, our high cost claims review program. And C, leveraging our bulk purchasing power with our suppliers to optimize availability and achieve better prices. And the third reason our incidence rate is down is the transition to higher trade service fees, which has resulted in a temporary and expected decline in the number of service requests per customer, as we typically see a short term change in customer behavior until they become accustomed to the new amounts. The increase in trade service fees is also driving a lower net cost per service request in 2024. As you may recall, our service fees are a contra cost to claims expense on our income statement. When combined with a normalized inflationary environment, Front Door's third quarter inflation rate was essentially flat. Again, this is on a net cost per service request basis as the increase in trade service fee dollars mostly offset external inflation. In summary, adjusted EBITDA increased to $165 million, which exceeded the midpoint of our outlook by $30 million. The difference is primarily driven by over $10 million of favorable weather, approximately $10 million of lower SG&A due to timing, $3 million of favorable claims cost development, and better than expected benefits from process improvements. Let's now turn to slide 18 for our review of our statement of cash flows. With strong earnings comes strong cash flows. Net cash provided from operating activities was a record $212 million for the nine months ended September 30th as a result of our exceptionally strong earnings and was primarily comprised of $281 million in earnings adjusted for non-cash charges and $66 million in cash used for working capital. Net cash used for investing activities was $31 million and was primarily comprised of capital expenditures related to investments in technology. Net cash used for financing activities was $131 million and was comprised of $119 million of share repurchases as well as $13 million of scheduled debt payments. Free cash flow increased 56% to a record $181 million for the nine months ended September 30th. We ended the quarter with $375 million in cash. This was comprised of $161 million of restricted cash and $214 million of unrestricted cash. We remained focused on using our cash to buy back shares. For example, we are extremely pleased that we were able to complete the three-year, $400 million share repurchase program before it expired in early September. This is especially impressive since we paused share repurchases for almost a year in 2022. As a reminder, last quarter we announced our new three-year, $650 million share repurchase authorization that started on September 4th. This amount is 63% higher than our previous three-year authorization. Now let's turn to our outlook on slide 19. Given that there is less than two months remaining in the year and that the fourth quarter is our lowest volume quarter, we are moving our outlook to point estimates versus providing ranges. While this is a departure from our standard practice for this quarter, we felt that this would help our investors better understand our estimates for the remainder of the year. Now, for the fourth quarter, we expect our revenue to be approximately $367 million, which reflects a low single-digit increase in our renewals channel, a decline of approximately 10% in our real estate channel driven by volume, a decline of approximately 20% in our -to-C channel primarily due to our discounting strategy, and an approximately $5 million increase in other revenue. For the fourth quarter, adjusted EBITDA is expected to come in at approximately $36 million. Let's now move to our full-year outlook, starting with revenue. We are increasing our revenue outlook to approximately $1.83 billion, or a 3% increase, which includes a mid single-digit increase in realized price, partially offset by a mid single-digit decline in realized volume. This assumes a mid single-digit increase in the renewals channel, a roughly 15% decline in the real estate and -to-C channels. It also assumes other revenue, which includes on-demand, will increase 40% to approximately $110 million. The growth over the prior year is almost entirely driven by higher new HVAC sales, which is trending towards $85 million in 2024. One brief note of caution here. Our guide includes only a minor amount of revenue from Mowen in 2024. It's still early, and while we are very excited about where this relationship can go, we will provide more details at our investor day. From a customer account perspective, we still expect the number of total home warranties to decline approximately 4% in 2024. As I close my comments on the revenue outlook and bridge to our growth margin guide, I want to provide some additional context on our pricing strategy. We significantly raised prices in 2022 in response to the highly inflationary environment and the dramatic increase in external costs to service our customers. We were not only pricing for inflation experienced in 2022, but also for expected inflation in 2023. Since then, inflation has come in much lower than expected, but because of our model, it has taken nearly two years for those price increases to run their course. Because of that, we have now initiated a new -single-digit price increase that will slightly benefit the fourth quarter and carry over into 2025. Now moving to growth profit, where we are raising our full-year margin outlook to be approximately 53%, which would be a new record for our business. However, it does incorporate several favorable items. We have taken a lot of price, we have had a lot of favorable weather, and our system has not been stressed with high levels of claims. Now let's turn to our full-year SG&A outlook, which we expect to be about $605 million. Based on all of these inputs, we are increasing our full-year adjusted EBITDA guide to be approximately $430 million. Our full-year outlook also includes $19 million of interest income and reflects stock compensation expense of approximately $27 million. And finally, we expect our full-year capital expenditures to be approximately $40 million and the annual effective tax rate to be approximately 25%. In summary, Front Door's financial position has never been stronger. We are generating record earnings, record cash flows, and we are on target to buy back a record amount of shares. We are making the investments to grow this business, and we are doing so from a position of strength. And I am extremely excited to see how those investments will drive future growth. Finally, before we take your questions, I'm sure our plan for 2025 is top of mind for you, but we're not quite ready to discuss that plan today. The acquisition of 210 is still pending, and we want to make sure we account for that before we finalize our plan for 2025 and beyond. We will be ready to present all of those details to you at Investor Day. With that, I will now turn it over to the operator to start Q&A.

Thank you. At this time, we will be conducting our question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad. A confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question key. You may press star two if you would like to remove your question from the queue. And for participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the star keys. One moment, please, while we poll for questions. Thank you. Our first question is coming from Corey Carpenter with JP Morgan. Your line is live.

Thanks and good morning. Bill, I wanted to ask you about the AHS app launch. Just how do you plan on marketing and rolling that out? Any details you could provide? And in a bigger picture, how do you see this impacting your business over time? And then I have a follow-up. Thank you.

Okay. Yeah, we just rolled it out. I hope you downloaded it, Corey. It's a member-focused app. So this is really designed to appeal to our members. It's all about our user experience. It's enhancing our user experience. I mean, there's some downstream benefits that it makes our service request process more efficient. And people can deal directly through the app as opposed to always having to pick up the phone. So there's a lot of benefits that come from the user experience. And I think it's a modern brand move. It also can be the catalyst for further enhancements that we will have down the road. So in terms of marketing it, we will be starting by, if you will, marketing it to our existing members. And then as far as broader communications, I mean, I think you'll see it in action. I don't think we'll just necessarily announce we have a new app, but it's going to be part of our overall brand character, our brand image. So we're excited about what it can do for our members. And I think the modernity look it'll give us broadly will help us to drive hopefully additional members.

Thank you. And then, Jessica, just on the, you mentioned in your preparative remarks that you're initiating a mid single digit percent price increase, I believe. Could you just expand a bit? Is that across all your channels or certain channels that you're targeting and kind of how you expect that to roll through the P&L and for you next year? Thank you.

Well, Koi, with, no, thanks, Koi. With our price increases, those are really focused through the renewal channel. So hopefully that answers your question. We roll those out through the renewal book.

Yeah, because, you know, real estate, we hold pretty constant and obviously the way the market's been, we weren't looking at any pricing action there. And then DTC1 is part of, you know, all the discounting stuff we talked about earlier. So as Jessica said, think of it as through the renewals level.

Great.

Thank you. Thanks, Koi. Thank you. Our next question is coming from Ian Zavino with Oppenheimer. Your line is live.

Hi, great. Thank you very much. You know, I wanted to also ask on the pricing side and kind of how are you arriving at, you know, your price increases? I guess we're kind of facing some down demand and just kind of trying to understand the decision, you know, balancing between, you know, price and volume. Thanks.

Yes. No, you know, I think as I shared in my prepared remarks, we obviously priced for the high inflationary environment in 2022. As we're going forward, I mean, we definitely think that pricing should be more in line with what we're seeing from an inflation perspective. And I think, Ian, you know, we've also got our dynamic pricing strategy. And capability that will be used as we roll that those pricing increases out amongst our renewal channel.

So, Ian, one of the things we do is we obviously monitor our elasticities all the time. And we're fortunate as you heard, our retention rate continues to be quite strong in the renewal channel, which is, as Jessica said, is primarily where the price increases are happening. In the ATC channel, we're being very aggressive on bringing in first year members, which is really, you know, the feeder into the, you know, the backbone of our business or renewal book.

Okay, thanks. And then, you know, maybe talk about the launch of the ASAP, sorry, AH, sorry, you know, talk about the difference between that launch and maybe this front door launch, you know, what are the differences there? And then is there any kind of concern of catamalization in the front door product at all? Thanks.

Yeah, no, it's an important point to note. The AHS app is designed for our existing members and is focused on the home warranty business. The front door app is open to anyone. And it also is the catalyst for our overall on demand business. So that is, so we don't see, we see them working in tandem because they are serving different markets. So we're excited to have both as a part of the overall front door Inc business. And I think they serve two different purposes that can work in tandem.

Okay, thank

you very much.

Thanks, Dan. Thank you. Our next question is coming from Sajuo Segura with KeyBank. Your line is live.

Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking the questions. Wanted to start, I guess, with the real estate channel. So it looked like the customer count there was stable. And I think revenue came in slightly above where you guys previously guided despite existing home sales actually declining this quarter. I was wondering if that implies any improvements you're seeing in the attach rates, and maybe just more broadly, we've been stuck in a seller's market, strong seller's market for some time now. Are there any signs that you're seeing that we're returning to a more balanced market in real estate?

Yeah, I think overall, I think I credit, you know, as you said, the trend being better, notwithstanding, it's still a very tough market. You know, did some of the execution that we've done, our sales team has done an excellent job, you know, grinding really for every unit they can. So I don't want to get ahead of ourselves on real estate. As we said, the market continues to flounder. But there are a few elements, as we talked about. The listings is now over four months worth of supply. Mortgage rates should continue to fall. I heard today there may be a rate cut coming very soon. We have done a good job of keeping our attach rate up, you know, relative to our competition. So to your point, there are some elements that seem to be, you know, on the macro side coming our way, but we don't want to get ahead of ourselves on that. We've been kind of calling for this all along. We still believe the market's going to rebound, you know, all the real estate professional or experts, worst market in 14 years and the like. So I think this is going to be a, I don't want to go all the way to, we'll talk about this more at investor day in February. I don't want to call it a tailwind at this point, but I think things are stabilizing, and we certainly hope they're going to turn up very soon.

Got it. That's helpful. And maybe a second one on the DTC channel. We saw that the customer accelerated there, so congrats on that. Hoping to just talk about maybe the drivers behind that. Was that more of the marketing strategy? I think you guys talked about a more targeted marketing strategy last quarter, if that was driving the results, or is that more of the discounting strategy? And then, you know, related to that, we saw you guys did lower the SG&A outlook with any of that marketing spend that you're lowering there, and just given the success, if that is so, like, why pull back when you're seeing some success in that channel? Thank you.

Sergio, I love your questions. It's kind of yes, yes, and yes, but let me go re-unpack that. So, and we certainly wanted to talk about, you know, our Google information, since you have been very keen to point out Google trends. But look, the information we got from Google is our searches are up. Discounting has been a good thing for us. Demand and conversion are up. The campaign, we believe, has worked very well with the awareness numbers I cited earlier. So, I think there's not one element. I think the discounting is a bit of a blunt instrument, but we feel it's been effective, and especially effective in terms of the long-term value of the customer. So, that's really what we're doing. We're taking advantage of this ability for us to generate the EBITDA growth that we have to reinvest in the brand. And that is part of what you see in Q4 that we did. We are looking to use some of the SV&A to do some incremental marketing, which is really going to impact 2025. So, yeah, I think your instincts are right. It is across the board, and we love the trend, and hopefully it'll continue.

Great. There you go.

Thank you. Our next question is coming from Jeff Schmidt with William Blair. Your line is live.

Hi. Good morning. Question on the direct channel. How much of an impact do you think your promotional strategy will have on retention rates there when prices step up for those customers? You know, I think you mentioned last quarter that, you know, that you think they'll hold up well, but is there anything new you learned there or any more that you could add on how much of an impact that'll have?

Yeah, so we, you know, we started the deep disc accounting in March of last year, so we have been tracking very closely that cohort as we go forward. Fortunately, we have seen that as we start to renew one year out, et cetera, that the retention, that, you know, renewals are holding, that the cancel rate is not outsized relative to anybody else. I think we'll touch on this more in investor day, but it's the right question to ask. How does it impact one year later? And so far, we've been pleased with the effort on the first year renewal after the 50% off.

Okay. And then how is the attachment rate in the real estate channel trending? Like where is it at today versus, you know, last few quarters or even last few years? And do you have any concerns, I guess, with mortgage rates, you know, sort of moving back up? They were heading towards six. Now they're, you know, going north. So any thoughts on if that will have an impact here?

Yeah, let me take the first part and then separate there for the second part. The, the attach rate has fallen for the industry, you know, home warranties where it used to be pretty, pretty steady around 30% or high 20s. It's now in the teens. What the point we're making earlier was as that has happened, we have maintained our share of you know, our fair share in terms of, you know, attachment rate, but the attachment rate has fallen and that is a concern for the industry. In terms of, you know, mortgage rates and the like, I don't think it'll have any different effect than just hopefully it'll start to raise the overall market that, you know, people will see that as mortgage rates are falling, I mean, people are going to want to buy a new house, they're going to want to sell their old house, want to take the natural reasons why the market will improve. But I don't think the interest rates are going to have a much of an impact on attachment rates. I don't know, Jessica, if you have a different take on that. No, I think

I agree. I think the one thing with the mortgage rates right now, just as we're seeing kind of interest rates, we see them flowing, but you know, just in recent times, they're popping back up a little bit. So it'll be, we'll be cautiously optimistic on that time.

Okay, great. Thank you. Thank you.

Thanks, Jeff.

Thank you. Our next question is coming from Eric Sheridan with Goldman Sachs. Your line is live.

Thanks so much for taking the question. Maybe two, if I could just first broadly on the competitive landscape. You know, I think we talked a lot so far on the call on the demand landscape you find yourself in, in both sides of the business, but how are you finding the competitive landscape? And where are there pockets where maybe competition is either more elevated or less elevated than maybe you anticipated when you think about the beginning of this year and how sort of 2024 played out? And then I know we're going to get an update more broadly on the 210 acquisition at the analyst day, but any key learnings about the elements of accelerating growth in organically in the business to acquisition versus building and scaling products yourself that maybe are some of the key takeaways from 2024 that might involve inform elements of strategy into 2025 and beyond. Thanks so much.

Yeah, I'll take the first one. And you want to take the second one, Jessica, in terms of competition, you know, there, there are a number of our direct competitors or private companies. So we don't have a lot of information except what we can hear in the marketplace. There are a couple of, you know, public code generally it's a division of a public company. They have obviously seen our aggressive discounting and they have responded in that. I think we've been effective in that regard. So there isn't any any product enhancements or anything of note. I think a number of competitors are focused on the real estate business. You know, DTC business is a higher share for us than it is in real estate, even though we're number one in both. So I think competitively, we feel like we're in we're in we're in good shape on that. I

know just from an emanated landscape, you hit it, Eric, we are still very, very focused on 210. And what we can learn from that, I think going forward, as we think about capital allocation, I always want to think about healthy inorganic growth and how that balances with, you know, our focus on organic growth. And we're going to continue to evaluate that going forward. I think the one thing just in terms of our deal strategy, we're still looking at, you know, what's out there in the market. And we'd be very focused on things that are going to grow revenue, grow customers and grow EBITDA.

Yeah, just to be clear, Eric, you know, we have a lot to absorb with the integration of 210. So there's nothing on the horizon that I would say, from an acquisition perspective, I mean, we can always keep that open. We are very committed to buying back shares with with our excess cash. So it's not that we won't look at that at some point down the road. But right now, absorbing 210 is going to take a lot. It's a heavy lift for us that we're excited about what it can do. We'll talk more about it in February. But you know, in terms of where we're going, that's going to be our focus for the immediate future.

Thanks so much.

Thanks, Eric. Thank you. Our final question today is coming from Mark Hughes with Truist Securities. Your line is live.

Yeah, thank you. Good morning. Hey, Mark. Good morning. On the HVAC sales, you've done really well ramping that up. Is there still potential for that to be a kind of outsized contributor to growth, rolling it out to different regions, different contractors? What are the dynamics there?

Yeah, I think you nailed it. What we're doing with our contractor relations team, they're rolling out, you know, market by market. It is a sale that you have to get the contractors on board. And the contractors want to be on board because the economics that they can get from this. And it's, you know, we've talked about this, you know, in the past, it's a great value proposition. We give a consumer a break. I'm a new customer of HVAC. Just installed my new HVAC last week. So I can't talk about fourth quarter, I guess, Matt, but, you know, that'll be part of the part of the numbers. But no, what we're doing is, you know, we were in Kansas City a couple of weeks ago, we're going market by market, enhancing the overall piece. We have stronger markets. And I think what we can talk about is kind of a full potential analysis when we get to February. But we think that there's a lot of blue sky out there for HVAC. And then with regard to Moe, and we haven't said, you know, Jessica, put the note of caution out there. You heard me say that we're expanding seven more states. We'll have more to say about it in February. But we think that's on a nice build, and they're a great partner, and we love working with them.

Do you think the Moe, can that be material in 2025?

Materiality is a few points at least. Well, that's a great TF for our investor day, February 27, then New York City. Well, we'll talk about it more there. I don't want to jump ahead just now. I think we're still in the middle. We haven't even rolled out to those additional states yet.

I think the point is, though, Mark, you hit it right like new HVAC. We've learned a lot from it. It's been a great growth opportunity for us, and I think that's going to give us a lot of good learnings as we think about expanding into two other capabilities as well.

If I might ask one more, Jessica, you talked about the trade service fees sort of dampen claims frequency until the consumer gets used to it.

What

is the usual timing of that process? I think you had mentioned that was maybe something that would impact the fourth quarter as well. Is that fair? How long does that

proceed? I think the way I think about it, you have to think about it, is we roll those out very similar to a pricing increase. It's a contra item on our claims cost, but we launched that on the back half of 2022, and the process takes 12 to 24 months to roll out. They're exactly like pricing. As we think about pricing reaching its run in Q4, TSFs are doing the same thing. Then just from a behavior perspective, typically we look at maybe a year or so for people to just get hired to that service fee and start calling in for repairs again.

Is that fair to say that you've kind of done that? Yes,

it's run its course. That's exactly what I'm saying.

Thank you.

Thank you so much. We have reached the end of our question and answer session, so I will now turn to call over to Mr. Bill Cobb for his closing remarks.

Thank you very much. Before we sign off, I want to reiterate some final points. As you heard me say last quarter, and it's worth repeating here, our strategy and plan is about near-term realism and long-term optimism. While macroeconomic factors continue to challenge member growth for all home warranty providers, we remain very bullish about this category, and especially our strategy to continue driving awareness and consideration. There are millions of untapped homeowners who could benefit from a home warranty, as well as our on-demand offerings like the new HVAC program. That said, I'd like you to reflect on what's been accomplished over the past two years. We have focused on customer growth, and we're seeing positive momentum on our campaign and the relaunch of the American Home Shield brand. These efforts are working, and as I mentioned earlier, we now expect our annual customer count to be in line with last year. We've also explored strategic M&A to accelerate our growth, and the acquisition of 210 is proceeding on track to close in Q4. We have enhanced our margins. We continue to drive high customer attention rates with the third quarter, setting a record at 77.7%. We've expanded our on-demand business. It's doing very well to HVAC sales, as well as our growing partnerships with Moen and others. And finally, we continue to return excess cash to shareholders through share buybacks, and with our new $650 million repurchase authorization, we remain committed to continuing share repurchases. So you can see, a lot has been accomplished. We've done what we said we would do. On that note, I hope these facts and the results of another absolutely amazing quarter of financial performance are giving you good reason to believe in front door for the long term. Thank you, and I look forward to seeing all of you in New York on February 27th for our investor dates. Thanks again.

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference, and you may disconnect at this time, and we thank you for your participation.