GDS Holdings Limited

Q3 2023 Earnings Conference Call

11/22/2023

spk10: this new site as Campus Tech Park or KTP. In the first phase of development, KTP will have 108 megawatt of power capacity. We are seeing stronger demand for our capacity in Johor from global and China customers. We are the only player to have two complimentary locations. both of which are only a few kilometers from Singapore. Across these sites, we have secured 268 megawatt of power supply over the next three years. This gives us time to market advantage and important considerations as customers accelerating procurement to meet AI demand. Furthermore, we have already proven our execution capability in Johor by deploying our prefab technology, including liquid cooling modules, to successfully deliver high-scale capacity in just over one year. In Singapore, following the award of Power Quota, we are finalizing the site selection for our first data center. We are on track to deliver capacity in 2026. In Indonesia, we are very pleased to finalize a JV agreement with INA, the Indonesia Solar Wealth Fund. We believe that INA will be a great partner for us because of their complementary strengths, unique relationships, and the value add. The JV is for all of our developments in Indonesia. We continue to make progress with our first project in Batang. We are working with INA to put in place the essential infrastructure. Finally, we are moving forward with the first round private equity capital raising for our international holocaust. It is going well. I will now pass on to Dan for the financial and operating review.
spk07: Thank you, William. Turning to slide 19. In 3Q23, revenue increased by 6.4% and adjusted EBITDA increased by 5.6% year on year. For the quarter-on-quarter analysis, We've excluded the one-time items which arose in 2Q23 as previously disclosed. On this basis, revenue grew by 4.9% and adjusted EBITDA decreased by 1.4% quarter on quarter. The decrease was mainly due to higher utility costs, which I will come to in a minute. Turning to slide 20, during 3Q23, we achieved net additional area utilized of 16,000 square meters. During the past few quarters, our net ad has been affected by higher than usual churn, which is mainly due to one customer's redeployment. This will continue into the fourth quarter. However, we are now seeing the impact partly offset by greater contribution from international. Monthly service revenue per square meter was RMB 2149 in 3Q23. Compared with the third quarter of 2022, MSR decreased by 4% in line with our expectations. Turning to slide 21, due to the seasonal fluctuations in PUE, we think it makes most sense to look at our margin trends by comparing with the same quarter in the prior year. At 3Q23, our adjusted gross profit margin was 49.5%, compared with 50.7% in 3Q22, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points. During 3Q23, utility cost as a percentage of revenue was 35.1%, compared with 31.6% in 3Q22, an increase of 3.5 percentage points. This reflects increase in power generation and more recently in power distribution tariffs. However, as you can see, we were able to mitigate some of the impact of higher utility cost with other cost savings. Adjusted EBITDA margin was 44.7% in 3Q23, which is only slightly down versus the same quarter of last year. Turning to slide 22, over the first nine months of 2023, our China capex totaled 3.1 billion RMB. Our full year guidance was for 3.5 billion RMB, and we still expect to be within that figure. However, next year, we expect China CapEx to be materially lower at around 2.5 billion RMB. Over the first nine months of 2023, our international CapEx was around 2 billion RMB. Given the rapid pace of development in Johor to meet delivery schedules, we expect full year CapEx for international to be around 4 billion RMB in line with our guidance. Our preliminary view is that international capex will be 4 billion RMB or higher next year. On slide 23, we plan to finance the international business independently. On the equity side, we are undertaking an equity private placement, the proceeds of which will be ring-fenced. On the debt side, we're aiming to finance international projects on a non-recourse basis. We should therefore look at our financial position in two distinct parts, GDS Holdings excluding international, which is in effect LISCO plus the China business, and international standalone. Over the first nine months of 2023, GDS Holdings excluding international had negative cash flow before financing of 1.8 billion RMB. As William mentioned, Our objective is to maintain positive cash flow before financing on an organic basis without assuming any asset monetization. Cash flow before financing for this segment was in fact positive in 3Q23, but it will take another year or so before it is consistently positive quarter after quarter. International standalone We'll have negative cash flow before financing of around 4 billion RMB this year and potentially a similar amount next year. We can finance this deficit with around 50% equity and 50% debt. For the equity requirement, we aim to raise at least 400 million U.S. dollars or 2.8 billion RMB in the current funding round. we've received very strong interest from regional and global investors and expect to close the capital raise in 1Q24. Looking at our financing position on slide 24, at the end of 3Q23, our consolidated net debt to last quarter annualized adjusted EBITDA was 8.6 times. Excluding the net debt and negative adjusted EBITDA of international, The multiple was 7.45 times. If we continue along the same path, the leverage of GDS holdings, excluding international, falls to below six times within three years. However, we continue to work on various asset monetization initiatives, including two data center funds, the potential CREIT, and property sale and lease back. This could enable us to delever a bit faster. Turning to slide 25, we are showing the loan maturity schedule for the first time with the debt of international separately identified. Over the next couple of years, we have on average 2.7 billion RMB per annum of principal repayments, all of which is onshore RMB project loans. A large part of this can be refinanced, as we have been doing successfully for many years, although we do intend to use part of our cash balance to pay down some debt where it is prudent and efficient. Turning to slide 26, we are not changing our formal guidance for FY23 revenue adjusted EBITDA and capex. However, we note that FY23 revenue is tracking to the bottom end of our original guidance range, FY23 adjusted EBITDA is tracking to the top end of the original guidance range. We'd now like to open the call to questions. Operator?
spk05: Thank you. Thank you. Dear participants, as a reminder, if you wish to ask a question, please press star 1 1 on your telephone keypad and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw a question, please press star 1 1 again. For the benefit of all participants on today's call, please limit yourself to one question. If you have more questions, please re-enter the queue. Thank you so much. Please stand by while we compile the queue in Eurostar. This will take a few moments. And now we're going to take our first question today. And it comes from the line of Jonathan Atkin from RBC. Your line is open. Please ask your question.
spk12: Thank you. I wondered if you could remind us of your expectations around renewal pricing and renewal spreads inside of China over the coming year, as well as your overall expectations around the pace at which utilization could increase in your existing campuses. Thank you.
spk07: Thank you, John. I always prefer to address this question in a more holistic way. We have a KPI of MSR per square meter per month, which reflects a number of different factors, including renewal spreads and changes in the product mix and locations. I think this year we set expectations that it would decline by 4% year-on-year, which indeed it is doing so. I think next year it will decline by less than that. That preliminary view is about 2% year-on-year, which here indicates that it's bottoming out. That gives you some indication of what's happening with renewal spreads, although, as I say, also reflects a number of other factors. As regards utilization rate, that will increase gradually. It will take about three years to get from where we are today, which is around 71%, 72%, to over 80%. I think we'll cross 80% during FY26. And then it will take another couple of years to get up into the high 80s.
spk12: If I could just squeeze in an additional part of my question. So KTP, is that a different part of Johor, or is that adjacent to Nusa Jaya? Maybe give us a little bit of color there. And then the demand signals that you're seeing in Indonesia, in Batam, is the JV constrained to Batam, or would you look to potentially go elsewhere in Indonesia? Thank you.
spk10: Yeah, I think the KTP actually is very close to Singapore as well. I mean, if you look at it, it's around 10 kilometers from our NTP, right? 10 kilometers. So it's a typical, I mean, fit for a lot of hyperscale guy, which is a cloud guy or some hyperscale deployment structure. So the good thing, the beautiful thing is that it's very close to Singapore, latency is not an issue, and also very 10 kilometers away from our current NTP. So this is perfect to allow a lot of our customers, fit a lot of our customers, deploy their IT in Singapore, KTP, and MTP. So we are working very close with a lot of potential customers. This structure is perfectly fit their future demand. But we have made a lot of progress in terms of construction, and we saw a lot of potential demand on our hands. So currently, we are working on a lot of potential demand. So we believe this is a sell, but it's not a big issue for us. So I think now, because Bhutan has a unique position. Number one, it's served, not only served the region, they also served, fully recognized by the Indonesian domestic market. And also, the power cost is lower than any location in Southeast Asia. And potentially, the renewable energy will come in soon. In the future, we will combine the renewable energy and the low power costs And so more broad region, it is a very unique position for the whole region. So we are very confident to get a lot of demand for web time data center. INA. Yeah. Okay. So INA is a very good partner, as I mentioned. I think the Because they are very, very actively to help GDS set up more advantage in Bhutan and help us to introduce a lot of the renewable energy player in this region. And also, they help us to find a lot of the potential data center sites in Jakarta as well. So we are very appreciative. They are a real value-added partner. I think in the future, they can add more value in terms of the... bring us to some SOE customer and also the government's potential demand. So I think we are looking forward to work more closely with I&A.
spk04: Thank you.
spk05: Thank you. Now we're going to take our next question. Just give us a moment. And the next question comes from Yang Liu from Morgan Stanley. Your line is open. Please ask your question.
spk14: Thank you. My question is regarding the moving outlook because we see a pretty big delivery of the overseas project in third quarter. Should we expect starting from fourth quarter or maybe first quarter next year, we will see queue-on-queue improvement of the moving speed? Thank you.
spk10: Yeah, I think you're right. I mean, we have very good deal terms with our overseas customers, right? So I think from the Q4 and the next few quarters, the rent purpose, we are very happy with this rent purpose speed, right? So I think you will see, the overseas will contribute more, right, for next year.
spk07: Yeah, so in the third quarter, we looked net, net of churn was 16,000 square meters, which is higher than it's been for the last five or six quarters. Okay, the international started to make a contribution there. I did mention that in the fourth quarter, there will be... Another portion in which there's an exceptional turn, that's the completion of what we've been talking about over the last four quarters. Nonetheless, I think the net additional area utilized in the fourth quarter net of that turn will be higher than what it was in the third quarter. And next year, I expect it to be significantly higher than what it is on a net basis in 2023. Yeah.
spk14: Thank you. I just want to make sure that the previous single customer churn will end in 4Q this year, right?
spk07: That's right. If I just take this opportunity just to give some statistics about churn. We talk about it in terms of square meters of area utilized. It's easier to track it that way. We think that our normal churn rate going forward will be around 4% of area utilized, maybe 4% to 5%, which I believe is low by global benchmarks. In past years, it was 2% to 3%, but given the evolution of our business, natural, I think, to expect that to be higher. In the current year, I think the total churn will be around 28,000 to 29,000 square meters, which is around 7.5%. So it's clearly higher, and the difference is what we call exceptional churn. The redeployment is actually the majority of that. Yeah, this will happen from time to time, and it could set us back in the short term. It could affect our growth rate by a small amount, but as it so happens, the redeploying customer has placed new orders with us, which are 1.5x the amount which they've terminated. In effect, it's one step back and one and a half steps forward, albeit with a timing difference. Hopefully, that will be complete, and we will hopefully revert to just what I described as a normal level of churn.
spk04: Thank you.
spk05: Thank you. Now we're going to take our next question. Just give us a moment. And the next question comes from the line of Frank Lothan from Raymond James. Your line is open. Please ask your question.
spk13: Hey, guys. Good morning. This is Rob on for Frank. Are you seeing any demand for liquid cooling-based servers? And if so, who pays the extra capital costs required for that?
spk10: uh you know do you guys pay it and adjust the pricing or does the customer contribute some capital thank you yeah i think the we are as as i just mentioned we are we deployed the uh it's not first of all i think the decoupling we already deployed a couple of years ago in china already right we are very familiar with this technology so we also just i just mentioned we are deployed in our NTP1, right? So our customer also required for liquid cooling. So given the future, I think for the AI guy, this will be very normal. But not everybody, every AI customer use the record cooling. It depends. The difference, the customer has different required profile. But number one, we are very familiar with that. Number two, I think the cost, in terms of cost, in our view, it's not significantly different, right, than the What do we build for the normal case, right? So I think, of course, if costs increase, we definitely will charge from our customers. We already gathered a mutual agreement with our customers. So this will not impact any of our return.
spk04: Thank you. Now we're going to take our next question.
spk05: Just a moment. And the next question comes from the line of Sarah Wang from UBS. Your line is open. Please ask your question.
spk02: Thank you for the opportunity. I have a question on overseas business, especially for the Johor campus. Besides China customers, shall we expect meaningful new orders from either international customers, cloud customers, or local customers. It's actually given there are a lot of other data center operators announced meaningful pipeline in the region. So how shall we think about the competition landscape going forward? Thank you.
spk10: So number one, we are targeting all kinds of customers. Our sales team working on domestic demand, international demand, and also China demand. So we don't care who's customer. Customer is customer, right? So I think, but we believe what you call campus, two campuses. including new future campus KTP, we definitely are confident to get the combination of the customer, just like what we did in Hong Kong already. So I think this will not be the issue. We will not just specifically target one kind of customer. We target all. So we believe GDS sales and our product will be welcomed by all kinds of customers as well. So in terms of the competition, I think we compete with everybody in China for 22 years. We don't afraid of competition, which we like the competition. I think at GDS, we will grow from a lot of the competitors, right? So I think it's good. And that's why if you, we already demonstrated, even in a very, very competitive market in China in the last 20 years, we're getting a number one position, right? So we're not thinking about what our competitors are doing. They can do everything. But we believe we will win in every market.
spk02: Got it. And then... Is there any additional color on the 12 new bookings for next year? Should they be higher than this year, especially given the dual core can continue to ramp up?
spk09: You mean international market?
spk02: Maybe overall? Yeah, overall, and then maybe there's additional color on overseas contribution. Yeah.
spk07: Yeah. We take this in two parts. For China, over quite a few quarters now, we've made it clear that we're not targeting a high sales volume. We're targeting a particular kind of business which matches the inventory that we have where there's a fixed move-in schedule faster than what we've experienced before and, of course, reasonable pricing. So we do any amount of business that meets those criteria. We don't forecast any change in China market conditions. Our own internal business plan just assumes continuation of the current run rate. We're not crystal ball gazers. So we don't build in any kind of assumptions about change in market conditions. But of course, we are very well position to respond to any change. On the international side, I think the sales next year could be higher than this year. This year, including the second data center in Hong Kong, if we were able to conclude that pre-sale, pre-commitment during the fourth quarter, then the gross bookings for international would be about 20,000 square meters. over the course of 2023. And we hope to release that again next year. The order size has been very large on the international side, so it's hard to predict because one order can make a huge difference. So it's not a widely dispersed book of orders, but it's a small number of very large orders.
spk03: Got it very clear. Thank you.
spk05: Thank you. Dear participants, as a reminder, if you wish to ask a question, please press star 11 on your telephone keypad. For the benefit of all participants, please limit yourself just to one question. Afterwards, if you would like, you're more welcome to re-enter the queue. Thank you. And now we're going to take our next question. And the next question comes from the line of Michael Elias from TD Cohen. Your line is open. Please ask your question.
spk11: Great. Thanks for taking the questions. Two, if I may. First, on the demand side, as we think about mainland China, would it be possible for you to create or provide a framework for how you're thinking about the evolution of demand in mainland China? Specifically, you talked earlier about it seems like there's some digestion that's happening in the market but could you talk about your conversations with the cloud customers and essentially what it's indicating is driving the slowdown in demand there? Then my second question would be, as we think about getting ready for the AI opportunity, what is the standard density, power density, to which you build your current data centers? And then as part of that, as you consider the AI deals that are on the market, what is the density that those workloads are running at? And to the earlier point, do they require liquid cooling? Any color there would be great. Thank you so much.
spk07: The first one was about what's holding back demand in China? What's the role of the cloud customers?
spk10: Oh, okay. Okay, I think there's a couple of things. The cloud players in China... I think now they are adjusting their strategy. I mean, they are more pursuing quality of the revenue. I mean, not just the quantity. So this is, I think, in the mid-term and long-term, it's very good for data center players because historically, the discretion number including a lot of the stuff like a CDN, like a network, all they call the integrity as a cloud. So the number is big, but also it says some system integration. But what we know is that those guys start to focus on the growth and real public cloud computing revenue. which we believe this is the right strategy, and given the time, they will grow their revenue properly and will drive the more high-quality data center demand in the future. That's what we see, that this is the revolution from our customer. So I think this will get, in the future, will create more healthy data center demand for all the industry. This is number one. On the other hand, I think AI is a hot topic in China already for a while. And China already announced a large language... model permission, right? But still, in terms of timing, I think, as I mentioned, it's still a little bit early because the developing schedule is behind the U.S. So what we've already seen is the global data center driven by all the U.S.-based large language model. This is not happening in China, but it's coming. So I think they still need time. But in China, they still have another issue. It's a supply chain issue in terms of the chips. So I think this needs maybe 12 months, maybe 18 months to solve all the issues. So what I expect is this will happen in one year or one year and a half, maybe in a big wave. The second question is the power density. Of course, I think China is always leading the power density product in China. If we look back to 10 years ago, our first data center, we built 12 triple high density than anyone else in the market, right? So we are very follow up to global chain and IT chain. So our last couple of years, we started to build very high power densities. Average power density is 8 kW per rack before the last couple of years. Now we also increased to 10 to 15 kW per rack. That's average number, which means we can serve 40 kW per rack. It's no issue for us. And again, I would say not only per rack power density we increased, Also, we increase each new campus power total capacity. This is well positioned to respond to all the AI demand in next few years. So we are ready for that.
spk06: Thank you. Very helpful.
spk05: Thank you. As there are no further questions, I'd like to now turn the call back over to the company for closing remarks.
spk02: Thank you once again for joining us today. If you have further questions, please feel free to contact CDS Investor Relations through the contact information on our website or the Pesanti Financial Communications. See you next time. Bye.
spk05: This concludes this conference call. You may now disconnect your line. Thank you for your participation.
spk04: Have a good day. Hello. Thank you. Thank you.
spk00: music music
spk05: Hello, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for standing by for GDS Holdings Limited's third quarter 2023 earnings conference call. At this time, all participants are in listen-only mode. After management's prepared remarks, there will be the question and answer session. Today's conference call is being recorded. I will now turn the call over to your host, Ms. Laura Chen, Head of Investor Relations for the company. Please go ahead, Laura.
spk02: Thank you. Hello, everyone. Welcome to the third quarter 2023 earnings conference call of GDS Holdings Limited. The company's results were issued via Newswire Services earlier today and are posted online. A summary presentation, which we will refer to during this conference call, can be viewed and downloaded from our IR website at investorsgdsservices.com. Leading today's call is Mr. William Huang. GDS founder, chairman, and CEO, who will provide an overview of our business strategy and performance. Mr. Dan Newman, GDS CFO, will then review the financial and operating results. Ms. Jamie Koo, our COO, is also available to answer questions. Before we continue, please note that today's discussion will contain forward-looking statements made under the safe harbor provisions of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements involve inherent risks and uncertainties. As such, the company's results may be materially different from the views expressed today. Further information regarding these and other risks and uncertainties is included in a company's prospectus as filed with the U.S. SEC. The company does not assume any obligation to update any forward-looking statements except as required under applicable law. Please also note that GDS earnings press release and this conference call include discussions of unaudited gap financial information as well as unaudited non-gap financial measures. GDS press release contains a reconciliation of the unaudited non-gap measures to the unaudited most directly comparable gap measures. I'll now turn the call over to GDS founder, chairman, and CEO, William Huang. Please go ahead, William.
spk10: Okay. Hello everyone, this is William. Thank you for joining us on today's call. The number one priority of GDS management is to create value for our shareholders and drive share price recovery. We are pursuing this goal by executing distinct strategies for our China and international business. For China, our financial objectives are to grow EBITDA at a steady rate maintain positive cash flow before financing, and a delevered balance sheet. We are getting there by, first, taking a highly selective approach to new bookings, which match our inventory and come with fast-moving rates. Second, delivering the backlog and increasing capacity utilization and setting a high bar for new CAPEX to fulfill orders with firm moving schedules. For international, our financial objectives are to create a second growth engine which enhances our equity valuation. We are leveraging our competitive strength to build a leading presence in regional hub markets, win landmark commitment from global and the China customers, and finance the business independently. Now let's dive into our progress towards achieving these objectives. In 3Q23, we won 21,000 square meters or 54 megawatts of new customer commitments, all in China. The two largest orders were from internet companies in the live streaming and the short video vertical, which continues to perform strongly. The orders were for additional capacity at our campuses in Langfang, near Beijing, where they have already deployed The moving periods are faster than usual. Market demand in China has not yet picked up noticeably as large customers still have inventory to absorb. The data center market will recover when this is a broader basis recovery in the digital economy. We believe that AI demand AI demand wave is coming. However, It will take more time for customers to further develop their models and applications, adapt to new regulations, and solve the chip supply issue. AI will require a lot of data center capacity in tier one markets, which pays to our stress. When this demand starts to materialize in size, we will be very well positioned Since the launch of our international strategy, new bookings from international have made up 40% of next additional area committed. In order to maintain this success, we are putting a lot of effort into securing attractive resource supply, just like what we did before in China. Our growth moving for the third quarter was nearly 21,000 square meters, comprising 17,000 square meters in China and nearly 4,000 square meters internationally. Throughout the current phase of market development, The growth moving for our China data centers has been sustained at a consistent level. Meanwhile, 3Q23 was the first quarter in which international made a material contribution. We expect the contribution from international to ramp up significantly over the next few quarters. In 3Q23, we brought around 23,000 square meters of new capacity into service. 13,000 square meters was at two of our campuses in Longfang, China. The capacity is 100% committed to a single customer, which is redeploying from other data centers. The moving period for this new capacity is faster than usual. The remaining 10,000 square meters is the first data center at our NTP campus in Johor, Malaysia. This data center is also 100% committed with a moving period of only a few months. In 4Q23, we expect to bring another 20,000 square meters into service. half in China and half international. Once again, all of this new capacity is 100% committed with fixed moving schedules. Turning to slide 50, we are making good progress in the execution of our international strategy. Starting with Hong Kong, Our first data center, Hong Kong 1, has entered the service and is almost sold out to global and China customers. Our second data center, Hong Kong 2, is under construction. During the current quarter, we expect to secure an anchor customer commitment for Hong Kong 2 more than 15 months ahead of project completion. Moving to Juho, our NTP campus has 160 MW of power capacity across the first three phases, out of which 96 MW is already committed. In 3Q23, we delivered 23 MW, which is already fully revenue generating. Over the next few quarters, we will deliver the remaining 73 megawatts of committed capacity, which will also become fully revenue generating within a short period of time. While we still have room for expansion at NTP, we have enhanced our resource supply by acquiring land for a second campus in Johor. We refer to this new site as Campus Tech Park, or KTP. In the first phase of development, KTP will have 108 megawatt of power capacity. We are seeing strong demand for our capacity in Zhuhou from global and China customers. We are the only player to have two complementary locations. both of which are only a few kilometers from Singapore. Across these sites, we have secured 268 megawatt of power supply over the next three years. This gives us time to market advantage and important considerations as customers accelerating procurement to meet AI demand. Furthermore, we have already proven our execution capability in Johor by deploying our prefab technology, including liquid cooling modules, to successfully deliver high-scale capacity in just over one year. In Singapore, following the award of Power Quota, we are finalizing the site selection for our first data center. We are on track to deliver capacity in 2026. In Indonesia, we are very pleased to finalize a JV agreement with INA, the Indonesia Solar Wealth Fund. We believe that INA will be a great partner for us because of their complementary strengths, unique relationships, and the value add. The JV is for all of our developments in Indonesia. We continue to make progress with our first project in Batang. We are working with INA to put in place the essential infrastructure. Finally, we are moving forward with the first round private equity capital raising for our International Holocaust. It is going well. I will now pass on to Dan for the financial and operating review.
spk07: Thank you, William. Turning to slide 19. In 3Q23, revenue increased by 6.4% and adjusted EBITDA increased by 5.6% year on year. For the quarter-on-quarter analysis, We've excluded the one-time items which arose in 2Q23 as previously disclosed. On this basis, revenue grew by 4.9% and adjusted EBITDA decreased by 1.4% quarter on quarter. The decrease was mainly due to higher utility costs, which I will come to in a minute. Turn into slide 20. During 3Q23, we achieved net additional area utilized of 16,000 square meters. During the past few quarters, our net ad has been affected by higher than usual churn, which is mainly due to one customer's redeployment. This will continue into the fourth quarter. However, we are now seeing the impact partly offset by greater contribution from international. Monthly service revenue per square meter was RMB 2149 in 3Q23. Compared with the third quarter of 2022, MSR decreased by 4% in line with our expectations. Turning to slide 21, due to the seasonal fluctuations in PUE, we think it makes most sense to look at our margin trends by comparing with the same quarter in the prior year. For 3Q23, our adjusted gross profit margin was 49.5%, compared with 50.7% in 3Q22, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points. During 3Q23, utility cost as a percentage of revenue was 35.1%, compared with 31.6% in 3Q22, an increase of 3.5 percentage points. This reflects increase in power generation and more recently in power distribution tariffs. However, as you can see, we were able to mitigate some of the impact of higher utility cost with other cost savings. Adjusted EBITDA margin was 44.7% in 3Q23, which is only slightly down versus the same quarter of last year. Turning to slide 22, over the first nine months of 2023, our China capex totaled 3.1 billion RMB. Our full year guidance was for 3.5 billion RMB, and we still expect to be within that figure. However, next year, we expect China CapEx to be materially lower at around 2.5 billion RMB. Over the first nine months of 2023, our international CapEx was around 2 billion RMB. Given the rapid pace of development in Johor to meet delivery schedules, we expect full year CapEx for international to be around 4 billion RMB in line with our guidance. Our preliminary view is that international CapEx will be 4 billion RMB or higher next year. On slide 23, we plan to finance the international business independently. On the equity side, we are undertaking an equity private placement, the proceeds of which will be ring-fenced. On the debt side, we're aiming to finance international projects on a non-recourse basis. We should therefore look at our financial position in two distinct parts, GDS Holdings excluding international, which is in effect LISCO plus the China business, and international standalone. Over the first nine months of 2023, GDS Holdings excluding international had negative cash flow before financing of 1.8 billion RMB. As William mentioned, Our objective is to maintain positive cash flow before financing on an organic basis without assuming any asset monetization. Cash flow before financing for this segment was in fact positive in 3Q23, but it will take another year or so before it is consistently positive quarter after quarter. International standalone We'll have negative cash flow before financing of around 4 billion RMB this year and potentially a similar amount next year. We can finance this deficit with around 50% equity and 50% debt. For the equity requirement, we aim to raise at least 400 million U.S. dollars or 2.8 billion RMB in the current funding round. we've received very strong interest from regional and global investors and expect to close the capital raise in 1Q24. Looking at our financing position on slide 24, at the end of 3Q23, our consolidated net debt to last quarter annualized adjusted EBITDA was 8.6 times. Excluding the net debt and negative adjusted EBITDA of international, The multiple was 7.45 times. If we continue along the same path, the leverage of GDS holdings, excluding international, falls to below six times within three years. However, we continue to work on various asset monetization initiatives, including two data center funds, a potential C REIT, and property sale and lease back. This could enable us to deliver a bit faster. Turning to slide 25, we are showing the loan maturity schedule for the first time with the debt of international separately identified. Over the next couple of years, we have on average 2.7 billion RMB per annum of principal repayments, all of which is onshore RMB project loans. A large part of this can be refinanced, as we have been doing successfully for many years, although we do intend to use part of our cash balance to pay down some debt where it is prudent and efficient. Turning to slide 26, we are not changing our formal guidance for FY23 revenue adjusted EBITDA and capex. However, we note that FY23 revenue is tracking to the bottom end of our original guidance range, FY23 adjusted EBITDA is tracking to the top end of the original guidance range. We'd now like to open the call to questions. Operator?
spk05: Thank you. Thank you. Dear participants, as a reminder, if you wish to ask a question, please press star 1 1 on your telephone keypad and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw a question, please press star 1 1 again. For the benefit of all participants on today's call, please limit yourself to one question. If you have more questions, please re-enter the queue. Thank you so much. Please stand by while we compile the queue in Eurostar. This will take a few moments. And now we're going to take our first question today. And it comes from the line of Jonathan Atkin from RBC. Your line is open. Please ask your question.
spk12: Thank you. I wondered if you could remind us of your expectations around renewal pricing and renewal spreads inside of China over the coming year, as well as your overall expectations around the pace at which utilization could increase in your existing campuses. Thank you.
spk07: Yeah, thank you, John. I always prefer to address this question in a more holistic way. We have a KPI of MSR per square meter per month, which reflects a number of different factors, including renewal spreads and changes in the product mix and location. I think this year we set expectations that it would decline by 4% year-on-year, which indeed it is doing so. I think next year it will decline by less than that. Our preliminary view is about 2% year-on-year, which here indicates that it's bottoming out. That gives you some indication of what's happening with renewal spreads, although, as I say, it does also reflect a number of other factors. As regards utilization rate, that will increase gradually. It will take about three years to get from where we are today, which is around 71%, 72%, to over 80%. I think we'll cross 80% during FY26. And then it will take another couple of years to get up into the high 80s.
spk12: If I could just squeeze in an additional part of my question. So KTP, is that a different part of Johor, or is that adjacent to Nusa Jaya? Maybe give us a little bit of color there. And then the demand signals that you're seeing in Indonesia, in Batam, is the JV constrained to Batam, or would you look to potentially go elsewhere in Indonesia? Thank you.
spk10: Yeah, I think KTP actually is very close to Singapore as well. I mean, if you look at it, it's around 10 kilometers from our NTP, right? 10 kilometers. So it's a typical, I mean, fit for a lot of hyperscale guy, which is a cloud guy or some hyperscale deployment structure. So the good thing, the beautiful thing is that it's very close to Singapore, latency is not an issue, and also 10 kilometers away from our current NTP. So this is perfect to allow a lot of our customers, fit a lot of our customers, deploy their IT in Singapore, KTP, and NTP. So we are working very close with a lot of potential customers. This structure is perfectly fit their future demand. But we have made a lot of progress in terms of construction and we saw a lot of potential demand on our hands. So currently we are working on a lot of potential demand. So we believe this is a potential, sell the potential is not a big issue for us. So I think now, because Bhutan has a unique position. Number one, it's served, not only served the region, they also served, fully recognized by the Indonesian domestic market. and also the power cost is lower than any location in Southeast Asia, and potentially the renewable energy will come in soon. In the future, we will combine the renewable energy and the low power costs And so more broad region, it is a very unique position for the whole region. So we are very confident to get a lot of demand for a web-time data center.
spk08: Thank you.
spk10: INA. Yeah. Okay. So INA is a very good partner, as I mentioned. I think the Because they are very, very actively to help GDS set up more advantage in Bhutan and help us to introduce a lot of the renewable energy per year in this region. And also, they help us to find a lot of the potential data center sites in Jakarta as well. So we are very appreciative. They are a real value-added partner. I think in the future, they can add more value in terms of the... bring us to some SOE customer and also the government's potential demand. So I think we are looking forward to work more closely with I&A.
spk04: Thank you.
spk05: Thank you. Now we're going to take our next question. Just give us a moment. And the next question comes from Yang Liu from Morgan Stanley. Your line is open. Please ask your question.
spk14: Thank you. My question is regarding the moving outlook because we see a pretty big delivery of the overseas project in third quarter. Should we expect starting from fourth quarter or maybe first quarter next year, we will see queue-on-queue improvement of the moving speed? Thank you.
spk10: Yeah, I think you're right. I mean, we have very good deal terms with our overseas customers, right? So I think from the Q4 and the next few orders, we are very happy this ramp-up speed, right? So I think you will see, the overseas will contribute more, right, for next year.
spk07: Yeah, so I think the third quarter, we looked net, net of churn was 16,000 square meters, which is higher than it's been for the last five or six quarters. Okay, the international started to make a contribution there. I did mention that in the fourth quarter, there will be... Another quarter in which there's an exceptional turn, that's the completion of what we've been talking about over the last four quarters. Nonetheless, I think the net additional area utilized in the fourth quarter, net of that turn, will be higher than what it was in the third quarter. And next year, I expect it to be significantly higher than what it is on a net basis in 2023. Yeah.
spk14: Thank you. I just want to make sure that the previous single customer churn will end in 4Q this year, right?
spk07: That's right. If I just take this opportunity just to give some statistics about churn. We talk about it in terms of square meters of area utilized. It's easier to track it that way. We think that our normal churn rate going forward will be around 4% of area utilized, maybe 4% to 5%, which I believe is low by global benchmarks. In past years, it was 2% to 3%, but given the evolution of our business, natural, I think, to expect that to be higher. In the current year, I think the total churn will be around 28,000 to 29,000 square meters, which is around 7.5%. So it's clearly higher, and the difference is what we call exceptional churn. The redeployment is actually the majority of that. Yeah, this will happen from time to time, and it could set us back in the short term. It could affect our growth rate by a small amount, but as it so happens, the redeploying customer has placed new orders with us, which are 1.5x the amount which they've terminated. In effect, it's one step back and one and a half steps forward, albeit with a timing difference. Hopefully, that will be complete, and we will hopefully revert to just what I described as a normal level of churn.
spk04: Thank you.
spk05: Thank you. Now we're going to take our next question. Just give us a moment. And the next question comes from the line of Frank Lozen from Raymond James. Your line is open. Please ask your question.
spk13: Hey, guys. Good morning. This is Rob on for Frank. Are you seeing any demand for liquid cooling-based servers? And if so, who pays the extra capital costs required for that? you know, do you guys pay it and adjust the pricing or does the customer contribute some capital? Thank you.
spk10: Yeah, I think we are, as I just mentioned, we are, we deployed the, it's not, first of all, I think the Bitcoin we already deployed a couple of years ago in China already, right? We are very familiar with this technology. So we also, I just mentioned we are, deployed in our NTP1, right? So our customer also required for liquid cooling. So given the future, I think for the AI guy, this will be very normal. But not everybody, every AI customer use the record cooling. It depends. The difference, the customer has different required profile. But number one, we are very familiar with that. Number two, I think the cost, in terms of cost, in our view, it's not significantly different, right, than the what we built before for the normal case, right? So I think, of course, if costs increase, we definitely will charge from our customers, which we already gathered a mutual agreement with our customers. So this will not impact any of our return.
spk04: Thank you. Now we're going to take our next question.
spk05: Just a moment. And the next question comes from the line of Sarah Wang from UBS. Your line is open. Please ask your question.
spk02: Thank you for the opportunity. I have a question on overseas business, especially for the Johor campus. Besides China customers, shall we expect meaningful new orders from either international customers, cloud customers, or local customers. It's actually given there are a lot of other data center operators announced meaningful pipeline in the region. So how shall we think about the competition landscape going forward? Thank you.
spk10: So, number one, we are targeting all kinds of customers. Our sales team is working on domestic demand, international demand, and also China demand. So, we don't care who's customer. Customer is customer, right? So, I think, but we believe what you call campus, two campuses. including new future campus KTP we definitely we are confident to get the combination of the customer just like what we did in Hong Kong already right so I think this will not be the issue we were not we were not just a specific target one kind of customer we target all right so and we believe in GDF sales and our product will welcomed by the all kind of customer as well So in terms of the competition, I think we compete with everybody in China for 22 years. We don't afraid of competition, which we like the competition. I think at GDS, we will grow from a lot of the competitors, right? So I think it's good. And that's why if you, we already demonstrated, even in a very, very competitive market in China in the last 20 years, we're getting a number one position, right? So we're not thinking about what our competitors are doing. They can do everything. But we believe we will win in every market.
spk02: Got it. And then... Is there any additional color on the growth new bookings for next year? Should they be higher than this year, especially given the dual core can continue to ramp up?
spk09: You mean international market?
spk02: Maybe overall? Yeah, overall, and then maybe there's additional color on overseas contribution. Yeah.
spk07: Yeah. We take this in two parts. For China, over quite a few quarters now, we've made it clear that we're not targeting a high sales volume. We're targeting a particular kind of business which matches the inventory that we have where there's a fixed move-in schedule faster than what we've experienced before and, of course, reasonable pricing. So we do any amount of business that meets those criteria. We don't forecast any change in China market conditions. Our own internal business plan just assumes continuation of the current run rate. We're not crystal ball gazers. So we don't build in any kind of assumptions about change in market conditions. But of course, we are very well position to respond to any change. On the international side, I think the sales next year could be higher than this year. This year, including the second data center in Hong Kong, if we were able to conclude that pre-sale, pre-commitment during the fourth quarter, then the gross bookings for international would be about 20,000 square meters. over the course of 2023. And we hope to release that again next year. The order size has been very large on the international side, so it's hard to predict because one order can make a huge difference. So it's not a widely dispersed book of orders, but it's a small number of very large orders.
spk03: Got it very clear. Thank you.
spk05: Thank you. Dear participants, as a reminder, if you wish to ask a question, please press star 11 on your telephone keypad. For the benefit of all participants, please limit yourself just to one question. Afterwards, if you would like, you're more welcome to re-enter the queue. Thank you. And now we're going to take our next question. And the next question comes to the line of Michael Elias from TD Cohen. Your line is open. Please ask your question.
spk11: Great. Thanks for taking the questions. Two, if I may. First, on the demand side, as we think about mainland China, would it be possible for you to create or provide a framework for how you're thinking about the evolution of demand in mainland China? Specifically, you talked earlier about it seems like there's some digestion that's happening in the market but could you talk about your conversations with the cloud customers and essentially what it's indicating is driving the slowdown in demand there? Then my second question would be, as we think about getting ready for the AI opportunity, what is the standard density, power density, to which you build your current data centers? And then as part of that, as you consider the AI deals that are on the markets, what is the density that those workloads are running at? And to the earlier point, do they require liquid cooling? Any color there would be great. Thank you so much.
spk07: The first one was about what's holding back demand in China? What's one of the cloud customers say?
spk10: Oh, okay. Okay, I think there's a couple of things. The cloud players in China... I think now they are adjusting their strategy. I mean, they are more pursuing quality of the revenue. I mean, not just the quantity. So this is, I think, in the mid-term and long-term, it's very good for data center, because historically, the discretion number including a lot of the stuff like a CDN like a network or they call it integrated as a cloud so the number is big but also it says some system integration but what I what we know is those guys start to focus on the growth and real public cloud computing revenue which we believe this is the right strategy and will, given the time, they will grow their revenue properly and will drive the more high-quality data center demand in the future. That's what we see, that this is the revolution from our customer. So I think this will get, in the future, will create more healthy data center demand for all the industry. This is number one. On the other hand, I think AI is a hot topic in China already for a while. And China already announced a large language... model permission, right? But still, in terms of timing, I think, as I mentioned, it's still a little bit early because the developing schedule is behind the U.S. So what we've already seen is the global data center driven by all the U.S.-based large language model. This is not happening in China, but it's coming. So I think they still need time. But in China, they still have another issue. It's a supply chain issue in terms of the chips. So I think this needs maybe 12 months, maybe 18 months to solve all the issues. So what I expect is this will happen in one year or one year and a half, maybe in a big wave. The second question is the power density. Of course, I think China is always leading the power density product in China. If we look back to 10 years ago, our first data center, we built 12 triple high density than anyone else in the market, right? So we are very follow up to global chain and IT chain. So our last couple of years, we started to build very high power densities. Average power density is 8 kW per rack before the last couple of years. Now we also increased to 10 to 15 kW per rack. That's average number, which means we can serve 40 kW per rack. It's no issue for us. And again, I would say not only per rack power density we increased, Also, we increase each new campus power total capacity. This is well positioned to respond to all the AI demand in next few years. So we are ready for that.
spk06: Thank you. Very helpful.
spk05: Thank you. As there are no further questions, I'd like to now turn the call back over to the company for closing remarks.
spk02: Thank you once again for joining us today. If you have further questions, please feel free to contact CDS Investor Relations through the contact information on our website or the Pesanti Financial Communications. See you next time. Bye.
spk05: This concludes this conference call. You may now disconnect your line. Thank you for your participation. Have a good day.
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