2/19/2025

speaker
Operator
Conference Call Host

Welcome to the Global E Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2024 Earnings Announcement Conference Call. This call is being simultaneously webcast on the company's website and the investor relations section under news and events. For opening remarks and introductions, I will now turn the call over to Erica Manyon at Sapphire Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

speaker
Erica Manyon
Investor Relations - Sapphire

Thank you and good morning. With me today from Global E are Amir Slokit, co-founder and chief executive officer, Ofer Koren, chief financial officer, and Neera Devi, co-founder and president. Amir will begin with a review of the business results for the fourth quarter and full year of 2024. Ofer will then review the financial results for the fourth quarter and full year of 2024, followed by the company's outlook for the first quarter and full year of 2025. We will then open the call for questions. Certain statements we make today may constitute forward-looking statements and information within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, and the Safe Harbor provisions of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 that relate to our current expectations and views of future events. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks, uncertainties, and assumptions, some of which are beyond our control. In addition, these forward-looking statements reflect our current views with respect to future events and are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual outcomes may differ materially from the information contained in the forward-looking statement as a result of a number of factors, including those set forth in the risk section titled, Risk Factors and Our Prospectives Filed with the SEC on September 13, 2021, and other documents filed with or furnished to the SEC. These statements reflect management's current expectations regarding future events and operating performance and speak only as of the date of this call. You should not put undue reliance on any forward-looking statements. Although we believe that the expectations reflected in the forward-looking statements are reasonable, we cannot guarantee that future results, levels of activity, performance, and events and circumstances reflected in the forward-looking statements will be achieved or will occur. Except as required by applicable law, we make no obligation to update or revise publicly any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise, after the date on which these statements are made or to reflect the occurrence of unanticipated events. Please refer to our press release dated February 19, 2025 for additional information. In addition, certain metrics we will discuss today are non-GAP metrics. The presentation of this financial information is not intended to be considered in isolation or as a substitute for or superior to the financial information prepared and presented in accordance with GAP. We use these non-GAP financial measures for financial and operating decision-making and as a means to evaluate -to-period comparisons. We believe that these measures provide useful information about operating results, enhance the overall understanding of past financial performance and future prospects, and allow for greater transparency with respect to key metrics used by management in its financial and operating decision-making. For more information on the non-GAP financial measures, please see the reconciliation tables provided in our press release dated February 19, 2025. Throughout this call, we provide a number of key performance indicators used by our management and often used by competitors in our industry. These and other key performance indicators are discussed in more detail in our press release dated February 19, 2025. I will now turn the call over to Amir, co-founder and CEO.

speaker
Amir Slokit
Co-founder and Chief Executive Officer

Thank you, Erika, and welcome everyone to our fourth quarter and full-year 2024 earnings school. 2024 was yet another record-breaking year for us here at Global E, as we continue to diligently execute on our strategy and further solidify Global E's leadership position in the global e-commerce space. 2024 was brought to a great close by a fourth quarter, which was our strongest quarter ever, and came in well above our guidance on all metrics. We finished Q4 with a record $1.71 billion in GMV, up 44% -on-year, and with record revenues of $263 million, up 42% -on-year, supported by the strong performance of our Q4 The adjusted gross profit margin for Q4 was nearly 46%, up almost 330 basis points from the same quarter of last year. Gross margin expansion, coupled with our continued focus on operational excellence and execution, enabled us to reach a key milestone in our journey in Q4. For the first time ever, our quarterly adjusted EBITDA margin crossed the 20% mark, which was the long-term profitability target we set for ourselves at the IPO less than four years ago, landing in .7% or $57.1 million, reflecting more than 62% growth compared to the same quarter last year. Such increased profitability, coupled with the usual seasonality effect, yielded accelerated cash generation, with the business generating nearly $130 million in operational cash flows in Q4. Not only that, but in Q4, we reached gap profitability for the first time since the IPO, another incredible milestone for us. We expect 2025 as a full year to exhibit, for the first time in our history as a public company, a strong gap profitability as well, on top of the continuation of our multi-year strong free cash flow generation. As we report to you today the results for 2024, we are quickly approaching our fourth anniversary as a public company. As such, it is an opportunity to pause and reflect on our growth journey over the last few years, and what an incredible journey it has been. GMV for the full year of 2024 came in at close to $4.86 billion, and revenues for the full year came in at almost $753 million. This is more than six times the GMV and five and a half times the revenues we had in 2020, the last full year prior to our IPO, just four years ago. Our annual adjusted gross profit reached nearly $350 million in 2024, more than eight times what we had in 2020, as our top line growth was coupled with a robust expansion of our gross profit, from just 32% at IPO to .5% in 2024, an increase of .5% or more than 45% during this four-year period. Moreover, adjusted EBITDA for 2024 was roughly $141 million, growing even faster at almost 11 times compared to 2020, and representing a staggering compounded annual growth rate of 80%, driven primarily by our operational leverage and commitment to cost control, coupled with our track record of delivering fast and durable growth. Accordingly, net operating cash flows grew to nearly $170 million for the year, yielding a cash and cash equivalence balance of nearly half a billion dollars at the end of 2024. As such, we believe that our consistent growth trajectory, together with our strong cash generation ability, will provide the necessary fuel to support our growth plans in the future as well, both organic and inorganic. Looking back at the last four years, I feel enormous pride in what our global team of remarkably dedicated globally professionals, now more than a thousand people strong around the globe, has managed to accomplish, achieving and surpassing the key financial and strategic goals we had set for ourselves. We managed to beat our start of the year annual GMV guidance in every single year since going public, despite occasional intra-year macro headwinds and challenges we had to push through, also setting a new record in GMV bookings each year, with 2024 being no exception to that. But such growth did not come at the expense of profitability. As I already noted, our relentless focus on efficiencies and cost control enabled us to beat the aspirational long-term profitability target we set for ourselves at the time of the IPO. We crossed the 40% adjusted gross profit margin mark already several quarters ago, and now we crossed the 20% adjusted EBITDA margin milestone as well. Beyond the massive growth in all our financial metrics, over the past four years we also managed to achieve the ambitious strategic goals we set out to conquer when we IPO'd. On the platform side, we continued to expand the suite of capabilities and solutions we offered to our merchants, added multiple capabilities across all areas of global e-commerce, and sharpened our data capabilities and insights, all aimed at further growing our merchant business. In parallel, we significantly expanded our total addressable market, or TAN, in recent years, by extending our global geographical footprint from just nine outbound markets operated in 2020. To the 39 outbound markets we currently support, as well as by broadening our platform scope to enable more multi-local offerings to serve the needs of large global merchants, as well as consumer electronic brands. We also launched our SMB and demand generation offerings based on the flow and board of reacquisitions respectively. From a merchant perspective, post-IPO we have made strategic investments in cultivating several verticals, including sports clubs and consumer electronics, investments which have been paying off as we continue to onboard more and more such brands. As an example, the latest consumer electronics brand that recently went live on Global E is Logitech, one of the world's largest and most innovative providers of computer peripherals, input devices, gaming accessories, audio and video gear, and smart home devices. We are grateful for the opportunity to support the amazing team at Logitech in their ever-growing focus on direct consumer sales worldwide. More broadly, as we prepare to enter our fifth year as a public company, we are in high gear, with our engines firing on all cylinders, as our global team pushes forward along all our strategic pillars. On the new GMV front, looking back at Q4 2024, we saw many new brands joining the platform and going live across all geographies. In the US, the successful Shaper brand Spanx went live, as did Thursday Boots, the upcoming jewelry brand KZAR, and the web store of famous luxury fashion designer Tom Ford. Europe saw many new brands go live as well, including Spanish brand Toost, Italian fashion brand Slower, UK footwear brand Phoebe Filo, German brand Ivy Oak, Swiss running gear brand Compressport, famous Austrian lingerie brand Triumph, French brands Zappa and Molly, and the successful Finnish pet brand Huta. So now all European dogs can enjoy their unique pet gear and clothing. The APAC region saw its fair share of go-lives as well. In Japan, we went live with Komei, one of Japan's largest retailers of secondhand goods, with Kyoto-based watch brand Kuo, with novelty brand Taito, and with the Japanese tailored shirt brand Kamakura Shirt. We also went live with the renowned Korean cosmetics brand DePoligy, and with the Australian fashion brands Zoe Kraatsman and Second Left, to name a few. Besides adding new merchants, we also continued to expand the scope of our business with existing merchants and merchant groups. During Q4, we added Romania and Croatia to the list of markets we operate for Adidas, went live with a new outlet site for our long-standing merchant John Smedley, and added Sterosun, the third brand to go live with us, out of the Swiss Holy Fashion Group. As we strive to fulfill our mission of powering better global e-commerce, we continue to invest in adding new services and new functionality to support the diverse needs and aspirations of merchants of all sizes and across all geographies. During Q4, our product and engineering teams concentrated on deploying several key new capabilities, those included, among other things, a new revamped returns portal and returns process improvement, including new consolidated return options in Keylane, support for B2B imports for relevant merchants, known as Reb2Speed, an enhanced live view as part of our merchant portal, and several enhancements for our borderfree.com demand generation platform. As we remain the leader of global e-commerce as a service, we believe we are uniquely positioned to continue harnessing our unparalleled and fast-growing data assets, our accumulated know-how, and our unique expertise, building and perfecting more and more services and capabilities for the benefit of new and existing merchants. Our robust product development pipeline, as well as our continued investment in R&D, are aimed at achieving just that. That is true also with regards to Shopify managed markets, where we continue to work -in-hand with our partners at Shopify and invest in adding new features and functionalities to the managed markets offering, aimed at making it applicable to a wider range of merchants on the Shopify platform. Another key area we continue to invest in is technological innovation, with emphasis on harnessing the power of artificial intelligence to improve both customer and merchant experiences, as well as drive productivity and efficiency within our internal operation. One such innovation, which we have already discussed in the past, is our successful customer services chatbot. Utilizing a specially trained version of the chat GPT large language model, the chatbot is already handling a large percentage of customer tickets, almost half of which are sold by the bot in real time to the full satisfaction of the customer. And we are constantly broadening the scope of issues the bot can handle. For example, now when customers approach customer services wanting to return a product, instead of being redirected to a returns portal, they can finish the entire process right there -a-vis the bot and get a return label, all the relevant documentation, and clear instructions on how to proceed. Another example of a proprietary tool we are starting to experiment with is automatic AI assisted localization of merchant site text and visual content, aimed at transforming the way merchants manage multilingual content on their site. Once operational, through this service we plan to offer merchants instant high quality translation tailored to the specific context of their brand with minimal effort, while maintaining the merchant's control over the final result through a resource management system enabling edits and updates by human translators when needed. We are also continuing to develop and deploy internal automated systems aimed at increasing operational efficiency. A recent example is an automated system developed by our innovation team designed to streamline the handling of payment disputes and potentially lower unforced chargebacks. Other examples include AI powered tools that could enable internal users and software developers to interact more easily with our data, our knowledge bases, and our code using natural language, as well as AI based tools like Copilot and others that are designed to accelerate coding as well as testing and quality assurance. In summary, we are extremely pleased with our achievements and results for the past few years since the IPO, as well as with the results of 2024 in particular. We're even more excited about the many growth opportunities that lie ahead of us in 2025 and beyond across all our strategic pillars. From a financial perspective, besides the continuation of our solid growth trajectory, 2025, our fifth year as a public company, is set to bring with it two significant milestones. First, as mentioned already, 2025 is expected to be globally's first gap profitable year as a public company. We exhibited positive and improving adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow figures every single year since we went public, but this year we also expect to be gap profitable for the full year and hit our 20% adjusted EBITDA long-term IPO target for the full year, which are both very significant milestones for us. The second important milestone for us is that in the back half of 2025, we are expected to cross for the first time ever an annual run of $1 billion in revenue and likely finish 2025 just shy of the $1 billion mark for the full year. The journey from zero to a billion dollars in revenues over the past 12 years has been an amazing one and we're only getting started. And with that, I will hand it over to Wolfer to dive deeper into our quarterly and annual financial results, as well as our outlook for Q1 and for full year 2025.

speaker
Ofer Koren
Chief Financial Officer

Thank you, Amir, and thanks to everyone for being with us today for our earnings score. As Amir mentioned, we are truly excited about our Q4 and Fully results for 2024. I'd like to point out again that in addition to our gap results, I'll also be discussing certain non-gap results. Our gap financial results, along with the reconciliation between gap and non-gap results, can be found in our earnings release. Looking at the full year of 2024, it was another year of strong growth for us with the business firing on all cylinders. GMVN revenue grew 37% and 32% -on-year respectively. Adjusted gross profit grew even faster at 43%, reflecting an adjusted gross margin of .4% for the year, up 350 basis points from 2023. Adjusted EBITDA grew a staggering 52% to slightly more than $140 million, reaching an adjusted EBITDA margin of .7% on an annual level. Furthermore, 2024 was another record year of pre-castle generation, which amounted to $167 million, reflecting a pre-castle margin of 22.2%. Throughout 2024, our existing merchant base continued to stay and grow with us, as reflected in our annual NDR rate of 119% and GDR rate of 93.5%. It is important to note that GDR and NDR were negatively impacted by the -the-ordinary bankruptcy of Ted Baker and by several border-free merchants that chose not to replatform to the globally platform. NDR and GDR excluding the -the-ordinary turn for 2024 is at close to 123% and 97% respectively. Zooming into Q4, the quarter exhibited strong rapid growth and robust gas generation as we continue to execute and tap into the global -to-consumer e-commerce opportunity. We have experienced accelerated growth of GMV in Q4 as we generated $1.71 billion of GMV, an increase of 44% -over-year. The rapid growth was driven by strong consumer demand, which remains volatile, and significant contributions from new merchants such as Herod and Victoria's Secret that have onboarded successfully to our platform in recent months. In Q4, we generated total revenue of $262.9 million, up 42% -over-year. Service fee revenue were $117.3 million, up 30%, and fulfillment services revenue were up 53% to $145.6 million. The faster growth of fulfillment revenue compared to service fee revenue was mainly driven by the bankruptcy of Ted Baker to which we provided demand generation services with a high service fee take-free. Fulfillment services revenue growth was also positively impacted by the GMV mix. Moving down the P&L, growth in non-GAAP gross profit continues to outpace revenue growth. In Q4, non-GAAP gross profit was $120.9 million, up 53% -over-year, representing a gross margin of 46% compared to .7% in the same period last year. The gross margin has slightly decreased compared to Q3, mainly due to the higher share of fulfillment revenue. GAAP gross profit was $118.7 million, representing a margin of 45.1%. Moving on to operational expenses, we remain committed to investing in the growth and improvement of our platform to further enhance our offerings. R&D expense in Q4 excluding stock-based compensation was $24.1 million or .2% of revenue compared to $18.2 million or .8% of revenue in the same period last year. Total R&D spend in Q4 was $28.3 million. We also continue to invest in sales and marketing to solidify our pipeline while maintaining efficiency. Sales and marketing expense excluding Shopify-related amortization expenses, stock-based compensation, and acquisition-related intangible amortization was $29.8 million or .3% of revenue compared to $17.8 million or .6% of revenue in the same period last year. Shopify warrants related amortization expense was $37.4 million. Total sales and marketing expenses for the quarter were $70.9 million. General and administrative expenses excluding stock-based compensation and acquisition-related contingent consideration was $10.7 million or .1% of the year. Total G&A spend in Q4 was $14.3 million. Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter totaled $57.1 million, representing a .7% adjusted EBITDA margin, increasing by 62% from $35.2 million or 19% margin in the same period last year. As Amir mentioned, this marks another key milestone in our journey as we have been able to hit our adjusted EBITDA long-term targets set prior to our IPO. Despite the impact of the Shopify warrants related amortization expense, Q4-24 marks our first quarter of gap profitability as a public company. A net profit for the quarter was $1.5 million compared to a net loss of $22.1 million last year. Switching gears and turning to the balance sheet and cash flow statements, we ended 2024 with $474 million in -in-cash equivalents, including short-term deposits and marketable securities. Cash generation has accelerated with operating cash flow in the quarter at $129.3 million compared to an operating cash flow of $93.5 million a year ago, driven mainly by adjusted EBITDA growth and working capital dynamics. Moving to our financial outlook and guidance for 2025, despite the prevailing macro-related uncertainties, we expect 2025 to be another year of fast growth and improved adjusted EBITDA for globally. For Q1 2025, we are expecting GMV to be in the range of $1.21 to $1.25 billion. At the midpoint of the range, this represents a growth rate of 29% versus Q1 of 2024. For adjusted EBITDA, we are expecting a profit in the range of $29.5 to $33.5 million. For the full year of 2025, we expect Q1 to be in the range of $184.5 to $191.5 million. We anticipate GMV to be in the range of $6.19 to $6.49 billion, representing over 31% of annual growth at the midpoint of the range. In other words, we expect GMV growth to remain strong, although growth rates are expected to be lower compared to H2 2024, driven mainly by normalizing consumer demand, which has been on the higher side in the last few months of 2024. Revenue for the year is expected to be at the range of $917 to $967 million, representing a growth rate of 25% at the midpoint of the range. Revenue growth is expected to be somewhat slower compared to GMV growth, as we expect the overall take rate to decline during 2025. The lower take rate expected is driven mainly by our estimates that large merchants will increasingly adopt more multi-local or 3B2C strategies as means to manage the risk of rising risk cross-border tariffs, which are being put in place by the US and some of its trading partners worldwide. Even with that, as Amir mentioned earlier, we believe we can potentially reach another significant milestone in 2025, as in the second half of the year, our revenue annual run rate is expected to cross the $1 million mark for the first time. We expect adjusted EBITDA to continue to perform well and adjusted EBITDA margins to expand, thanks to our increased efficiencies and economies of scale. For adjusted EBITDA, we are expecting a profit of $179 to $199 million, representing over 34% growth at the end of the year, allowing us to reach our long-term goal of 20% adjusted EBITDA margin in 2025. Moreover, 2025 is expected to be our first full year of gap profitability as a public company, as the Shopify warrants related amortization exercise is expected to decrease significantly in Q2 of 2025 and to be gone in the beginning of 2026. In conclusion, we have reached and passed the long-term targets that we have set prior to our IPO in 2021, and we believe there is still a long runway in front of us. We believe now is the right time to share our thoughts about next phases of growth globally, and we will share our strategy, business initiatives, and financial targets for the future during our upcoming inaugural Investor Day on March 11 in New York City. Hope to see you there. And with that, Amir, Nir, and I are happy to take any other questions. Operator?

speaker
Operator
Conference Call Host

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question and answer session. If you have a question, please press the star followed by the one on the touch-down phone. Should you wish to cancel your request, please press the star followed by the two. If you are using a speakerphone, please lift the handset before pressing any keys. On consideration of time, we ask that you please ask only one question and one follow-up. Once again, that is one question and one follow-up only. Your first question is from Andrew Bosch from Wells Fargo. Your line is now open.

speaker
Andrew Bosch
Analyst at Wells Fargo

Hey, guys. Thanks for taking the question, and congratulations on a fantastic year. I'll ask both of my questions up front. The first quarter guide, just unpacking that, implies a pretty meaningful deceleration from the momentum that you showed in the fourth quarter and despite the easier comp from first quarter 24. So maybe if you just kind of help us understand the conservatism that's baked in there. And then my follow-up would be on the managed market solution, by our estimates, you delivered north of 250 of GMV in 2024, basically off of essentially zero in 2023. So is it fair to assume that you can add a similar amount of GMV dollars in 2025 as you did 2024? Thanks again.

speaker
Amir Slokit
Co-founder and Chief Executive Officer

Hi, Andrew. Thanks. So I'll start just in terms of the growth rates for the first quarter. So in general, for the first quarter, for 2025 in general, we are happy with what we are looking at and we believe the GMV is going to continue to grow fast, over 30%, as is reflected in our guidance. There is, I would say, somewhat slower growth expected in revenues and the main reason for that is what we expect would be the effect of the tariffs that are being imposed by the US and by some of its trading partners, as we believe it will drive more merchants to adopt either 3B2C or even multi-local strategy as a means to manage the risks of these growing tariffs. And that will inherently lower the take rates on that and that's what we baked into our guidance going forward.

speaker
Andrew

Hi, as for your second question, Andrew, it's Neil. We do expect managed markets to remain around the 5% of our overall GMV as we and Shopify are currently focused on enhancing the merchant experience and simplicity in order to support reaching in the longer term a larger addressable market. So we do expect that to grow this year at a pace which would keep it, as it was last year, a share of our activity. But going forward, I think in future years, with the builds we're doing now, we do have high hopes for a significant contribution.

speaker
Ofer Koren
Chief Financial Officer

And just to add that in terms of the deceleration from Q4 to Q1, in the second half of 23, as you know, and those large ones have performed very well in Q4 and they are actually skewed more than others towards Q4. So that will have an impact on our following quarters. In addition to that, we saw very strong consumer demand in the last few months of of 2024 and we assume a certain normalization going into 2025.

speaker
Operator
Conference Call Host

And Cale, your next question is from Samad Simano from Jeffries. Your line is now open.

speaker
Samad Simano
Analyst at Jeffries

Hi, good morning and congratulations strong close to 2024. Maybe just a follow up on the and the impact of tariffs. I guess, are you already seeing merchants come into you and say that they're rethinking either the fulfillment strategy which impacts, which results in more multi-local or that they're going to start making operational changes in advance of tariffs being applied or is this just you anticipating that? Maybe give us a little bit more clarity on the feedback that merchants have given you and then I have a follow up.

speaker
Andrew

Hi, Samad. Yes, we do see already from existing merchants a growing interest in the changes that are upcoming trading into the US and the fear of, I would say, an ongoing tariff war. As part of it, we did see merchants reaching to us to ask our advice and guidance as to what would be a good solution for them that will not implicate them in high operational and capex. And actually, most of them are looking at either using our free B2C option or actually going multi-local completely. So this by nature will have an effect down the year on the take rates as reflected in the guidance. On the other hand, we do see greater interest from prospects that are not currently with Globally that are looking for solutions as well and understand that with a set up towards the new changes and the ever changing environment, it's not only the changes themselves, it's the ability to adapt for frequent changes that retailers and brands are facing hard time to do within the internal tech stack. So overall, I believe that into the long term, it might yield the complexity, might yield a positive effect for Globally as we've seen in the past. So it had a short term, I would say, impact on take rates, on consumptions, but over time, it created a lot of push to additional merchants to join the Globally platform.

speaker
Samad Simano
Analyst at Jeffries

Great, that's helpful. And then maybe, as I think about the progression of 2025, I absolutely have the one-view guidance, but Obram, can you help us understand what you're assuming from an NNR perspective? And if you think about maybe just any anticipated large merchant goal lives like you've experienced in the last couple of years, we should be aware of as we're setting our models for the year.

speaker
Ofer Koren
Chief Financial Officer

Sure, Samad. So regarding, I'll start from the end, the new merchants, we came in today, we had a very strong year in terms of sales in 2024, and we started the year with a very nice backlog of merchants that are expected to go live within 2025. None of them, no single merchant that is as large as we saw in the last few months of 2024, but the aggregated number is very solid, so we expect those merchants to contribute gradually into the numbers of 2025. Remind me, what was the first part of the question? Hello.

speaker
Samad Simano
Analyst at Jeffries

Can you guys hear me? What are you assuming for net revenue retention in 2025?

speaker
Ofer Koren
Chief Financial Officer

Oh, yes, thank you for that. Yes, sorry for not remembering that. So for net revenue retention, we expect similar numbers to what we have seen in 2024, maybe slightly lower as the larger scale that we are at. It is becoming gradually more challenging to maintain the same numbers, but we expect it to come close to what we've seen in 2024.

speaker
Operator
Conference Call Host

Thank you. Your next question is from James Fossage from Morgan Stanley. Your line is open.

speaker
James Fossage
Analyst at Morgan Stanley

Great, thank you very much. I wanted to just quickly touch on another element of the NRR, et cetera, that you mentioned as it relates to border-free merchants who chose not to replatform with globally. Can you just give us a little insight as to what those discussions were like, why those decisions were made, and how you feel about, at least on those customers, becoming globally customers in the future?

speaker
Andrew

Hi James, it's Neil. So basically, just to start with overall, most of the GMV out of the border-free platform either already migrated or churned, so we see less impact going forward than what we've seen on 2024 numbers. But those merchants that were mentioned that did not migrate to globally, actually the vast majority had other priorities than to invest in an integration with globally. The typical merchant is much more a traditional merchant from department stores and traditional retail in the US. They have their own priorities due to their current situation and many of them decided not to. Unfortunately, of those that did not move, decided not to invest in integration currently. With some of them, however, we are still in discussion, so I do assume that there is an opportunity that over time, once the urgent priorities are done, we will see some of it actually coming back as a new merchant into the platform. However, on those that actually migrated to globally, we are very happy with the results. We have seen a great traction, we've seen their sales going up, we've seen much better conversion out of their current traffic. So all in all, what we wanted to achieve with them, we did see it becoming a reality. So we're quite optimistic on the growth trajectory with them. And as I said, going forward, the effect on our NDR, NLR is going to be much lower.

speaker
Operator
Conference Call Host

Thank you. Your next question is from Chris Zhang from UBS. Your line is now open.

speaker
Chris Zhang
Analyst at UBS

Thanks for taking our question. Our first question is about your revamped border-free dimension service. Can you maybe talk about your progress on that in terms of the merchant onboarded, the progress towards monetization, and how much of the impact has been baked into your pay create for 2025? And then my second question is about the free cash flow conversion in 2025, especially the taxes or the tax rate you're going to pay in 2025. Thank you.

speaker
Andrew

Hi, Chris. Thank you for your question. It's new. So yes, we have launched borderfree.com, which is our demand generation initiative. I would say sometime in Q4, it wasn't early October, it was late October, but we launched it. And we are very happy with the initial traction we've seen so far, both with the current merchant adoption out of the board, out of the globally platform, as well as the shopper usage. We do believe that it will be a strategic pillar in the coming years to drive more traffic to our merchants, growing their business with a significant and growing share of their demand coming from globally, as well as setting us another competitive edge to the market in order to bring in additional GNV to globally. So we're very happy with the initial traction. I will pass to Osso for the second.

speaker
Ofer Koren
Chief Financial Officer

Hi, Chris. Thank you for the question. Regarding free cash flow, as in previous years, we expect it to be likely above our adjusted EBITDA. So that's the short answer.

speaker
Operator
Conference Call Host

Thank you. Your next question is from Brian Peterson from Raymond James. Your line is now open.

speaker
Brian Peterson
Analyst at Raymond James

Thanks, gentlemen, and congrats on the strong close to 2024. So I'd love to hear what you guys have seen so far starting 2025. I know you mentioned a very strong demand through the holiday season, but anything you'd call out in terms of GNV trends as we start 2025 and any color by region?

speaker
Andrew

Yes, Brian, it's Neil. So we have seen after a very strong peak period and also before that, slightly before that, in the second part of Q3 where we've seen a strong consumer demand, we did see some normalization coming into 2025 and we expected it to go into something that is much more closer to our normal trend of the multi-year trend that we've seen in consumer demand driving same-store sales. Most countries behave the same. I think that we have seen some slight weakening in the UK, in the consumer demand into the UK, but outside of that, we are currently seeing back to normalization slightly lower than what we've seen, but it's already embedded into our guidance.

speaker
Brian Peterson
Analyst at Raymond James

Got it. Maybe just a follow-up as we're thinking about take rates. I'm just curious, what are newer merchants to the platform thinking about multi-local? I know there's some mixed dynamics with enterprise, but I'd love to understand as we think about the expectations for the 2025 guidance, what should we be assuming about take rates longer term as we think about mix of multi-local versus -multi-local? Thanks, guys.

speaker
Andrew

I will start and I will pass it to Roff. In terms of the new merchants, I think that the multi-local enabled globally to address a new term. It opened an addressable market that globally could not reach before. If you look just in January, and Amir mentioned it, late January, early February, we launched Logitech. Logitech is our strongest consumer electronics brand to date. This was not in our time, if you just take it back two to three years ago, where we didn't have the capability to do multi-local. Yes, by nature, it's in a lower take rate because a multi-local, either you don't have fulfillment take rate at all or that you have at a very low take rate versus cross border. However, it does open a new addressable market for us. In terms of how we see it playing over time, I would let Roff give more clarity. I think that

speaker
Ofer Koren
Chief Financial Officer

over time, we should see multi-local, beyond what Amir just mentioned regarding 2025, growing gradually in share. This is one because, as Amir just mentioned, there is an opportunity there and we are pursuing that opportunity for consumer electronics and other merchants that have local inventory as well. On top of that, we see over time a gradual shift with very large merchants and it makes sense for them to open another inventory center. Let's say if the US merchants in Europe or the other way around, if it's European merchants in the US. We see that also over time. We do expect a gradual increase in multi-local over time.

speaker
Operator
Conference Call Host

Thank you. In the interest of time, we ask that you please only ask one question. Thank you. Your next question is from Grant Brayton from Iver Founder. Your line is now open.

speaker
Grant Brayton
Analyst at Iver Founder

Thank you. Good afternoon. Amir, I appreciate the early feedback on tariffs. A lot of questions that we have there. It sounds like that's adding a new layer of complexity and while it might impact volumes, it could also drive more merchants your way. My question is related. It's on the potential suspension of the de minimis exemption rule here in the US for duty-free goods under $800. How would the suspension of that rule impact the business? Would that add another layer of complexity and potentially impact volumes but drive more merchants to the platform? Walk through specifically what you're seeing merchants discuss with you around the de minimis expansion rule.

speaker
Andrew

Hi, Brian. Hi, Brandt. It's Neil. Indeed, we do expect the suspension of the de minimis to have an effect both on the consumer demand with the effect that HS codes would see. An increase that can be not the 10% that were actually levied on the product but can be anything between 25 to 35% because there are ongoing duties that today don't kick in because the order is below the de minimis of the $800. This chain would have an effect that not only the 10% would kick in but the entire 30% on average might kick in making the order from foreign cities into the US for those specific Hs more expensive. This is what the merchants are facing. That's why a 3B2C model where the merchant would actually import it on a wholesale basis to avoid paying high tariffs on duties on the retail value but do it on the wholesale and then sell it domestically, we will see it coming more. As well as an increase in demand for solutions to duty reclaim because if duties are kicking in now in the US and 15% on average of goods are actually going back into the country, the duty reclaim would become much more critical because it can save 2% or 3% on the trading cost. We do see a lot of interest coming around for merchants in order to give themselves to have an optimized cost structure and profitability while not bumping up prices to the US consumer, at least not at the 10% so we do believe this will create a lot of interest in our services as globally is geared to give a comprehensive suite of services from duty reclaim for the returns into supporting 3B2C that for merchants to do by itself is super complex to do if at all. We do believe that there will be uncertainty. It might affect short-term consumption but overall in the longer term we do expect it will behave the same as we've seen in Brexit where overall it created much more demand to our service.

speaker
Amir Slokit
Co-founder and Chief Executive Officer

I would just add to that Brent what as Nir alluded to earlier, it's not just the magnitude, the impact of either the tariffs or change in the minimums, it's also the velocity in which these changes are coming and we've seen that over the last few weeks and it's probably not going to end there. There are going to be retaliatory actions back and forth so it's not just the tariffs themselves, it's the ability to handle and keep on training in a streamlined way in the face of all these rapid changes in the market and that's as we said that's part of

speaker
Unknown
Unknown

the value that globally brings to the merchants.

speaker
Koji Ikeda
Analyst at Bank of America

Thank you. Your next question is from Koji Ikeda from Bank of America.

speaker
Operator
Conference Call Host

Your line is now open.

speaker
Koji Ikeda
Analyst at Bank of America

Yeah, hey everybody. Thanks for taking the question. I wanted to ask another question on take rates and so when I look at the original 2024 guide right at the midpoint, I think the take rate assumption there was for 16% for 2024 but the year ended up a little bit below that at .5% and so when I look at the 2025 guide, right smack at the midpoint, that's .9% and I do appreciate the multi-local and the tariff dynamic there but I wanted to really understand how conservative the take rate assumptions are this year versus last year and what are some of factors maybe outside of multi-local and tariffs that could drive a

speaker
Ofer Koren
Chief Financial Officer

higher or lower overall take rate versus the guide? Thank you.

speaker
Unknown
Unknown

Sure Koji, it's all fair.

speaker
Ofer Koren
Chief Financial Officer

I think that looking at you know as we always do when we got into DC, we learned from past experience, we obviously looked last year guidance versus actual execution as an input for the 2025 budget and guidance and I would say that the 2025 guidance is thoughtful and you know it's based on our best estimation at this point in time. As we mentioned, we expect take rates to decrease mainly on the back of higher multi-local share that is pushed by the tariffs and considerations of merchants and you know we hope that we will hit the number in order to what can drive this upwards is a faster penetration of value added services. This could definitely support take rates and what could impact it negatively is if we see a higher share of multi-local

speaker
Unknown
Unknown

compared to what we expect to see.

speaker
Koji Ikeda
Analyst at Bank of America

Thank you. Your next question is from Patrick Walrabins from JMP. Your line is now open.

speaker
Ofer Koren
Chief Financial Officer

Oh great, thank you. I wanted to go back to Ed Baker. So after

speaker
Patrick Walrabins
Analyst at JMP

I guess in August of last year you guys guided down I think it was like by about 10 million because of the bankruptcy at Ted Baker and at the time here in the U.S. when you went to the website it was offline but now it's back I guess under ULAC.

speaker
Ofer Koren
Chief Financial Officer

Do you get that business back?

speaker
Unknown
Unknown

So the business that

speaker
Andrew

actually went bankrupt

speaker
Unknown
Unknown

was

speaker
Andrew

actually resolved through the new there is a new partner managing it. We are as we do with other prospects now work in order to to be connected but it's a completely different tech stack, it's a completely different owner, it's like selling to a new client again it's part of our pipeline and hopefully we will be able to have to be able to

speaker
Unknown
Unknown

work with them.

speaker
Koji Ikeda
Analyst at Bank of America

Thank you. Your next question is from Mark

speaker
Operator
Conference Call Host

Zucatois from the Benchmark Company. Your line is now open.

speaker
Mark Zucatois
Analyst at Benchmark Company

Thank you and congrats on the gap profitability milestone. Just two quick ones for me over on the 25 guidance. I'm just curious what the services take rate assumption is and then as it relates to Shopify managed markets I was hoping you could confirm the mix there in your 24 gmv.

speaker
Ofer Koren
Chief Financial Officer

Thanks. So regarding the take rate we expect the service fee take rate to be slightly lower compared to 24 as we mentioned there is a Ted Baker impact and we did serve Ted Baker for I think approximately almost eight months in 24. Regarding fulfillment as we already discussed more than once on this call we expect it to be lower due to higher multi-local share. So that's in terms of the take rates in terms of Shopify managed markets you know as we called out during the year the actual result was as budgeted by us so we hit the budget and you know as we mentioned a few times it was around five percent of our volume.

speaker
Operator
Conference Call Host

Thank you. Your next question is from Rob Wildhack of Autonomous Research. Your line is now open.

speaker
Rob Wildhack
Analyst at Autonomous Research

Hey guys one more on managed markets and appreciate all the color there. I think in the past you've hinted that volume has been in line with expectations but you've added more merchants than expected so that kind of points to fewer large merchants onboarding there. I'm curious you know why do you think that is and then what specifically features or functionality do you think you need to add to make the product more applicable to those large merchants? Thanks.

speaker
Andrew

Hi it's Neil. So I think you're correctly on your assumption. Yes we did hit our budget. It is skewed towards slightly lower size of merchants versus what we budgeted for. However it did give so far a solution for thousands of merchants that adopted it and are trading and happy on the platform. We do believe and we work with Shopify in order to build I would say additional tools as I mentioned earlier and capabilities to make it more simple and streamlined with other Shopify processes and activities and we believe it will also give a greater set of capabilities that will allow to go further upstream in terms of also the size of the client. It will mature over time in the coming quarters but we have high expectations over the coming years for managed markets.

speaker
Operator
Conference Call Host

Thank you. Your next question is from Matt O'Neill from AppliPartners. Your line is open.

speaker
Matt O'Neill
Analyst at AppliPartners

Yeah hi thank you guys so much. I thought maybe I could ask a little bit about the Logitech win. That seems to be a nice diversification and indicative of the electronics channel taking off. Am I reading that correctly and how do you guys think about that? I know there's maybe a little bit more scrutiny on electronics going cross border than typical apparel and luxury items and so is that type of product movement improved?

speaker
Andrew

Thanks. Yeah so your spot on that consumer electronics is indeed more complex than apparel and cosmetics to cross border. That is almost by nature why consumer electronics brands that we bring on are multi-local. The latest edition we spoke about Logitech is a good example. It's completely multi-local. However it's a new total addressable market for globally. We do believe that we can ground within the consumer electronics segment and we think that Logitech was our first real size case studies. However we had those before with Jabra, with Sunto and many others. They joined globally already and are enjoying our multi-local offering for the last few quarters and we see the acceleration now and hopefully we can keep them coming.

speaker
Operator
Conference Call Host

Thank you. That concludes our question and answer session. I will now hand the call back to Amir for the closing remark.

speaker
Amir Slokit
Co-founder and Chief Executive Officer

Thank you for that and as we concluded another very strong year at globally I would just like to thank you all for joining us today and for your ongoing support as we continue on our journey to fulfill our mission to enable great better global direct to consumer e-commerce for brands worldwide. We are incredibly eager and excited as we continue to take advantage of the countless opportunities that lie ahead of us and we would be honored to have you join us. As such we very much look forward to seeing you in New York next month for our investor day as well as on our future earning schools. Until then goodbye and take care.

speaker
Operator
Conference Call Host

Thank you ladies and gentlemen the conference has now ended. Thank you all for joining. You may all disconnect your lines.

Disclaimer

This conference call transcript was computer generated and almost certianly contains errors. This transcript is provided for information purposes only.EarningsCall, LLC makes no representation about the accuracy of the aforementioned transcript, and you are cautioned not to place undue reliance on the information provided by the transcript.

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