Green Plains Partners LP

To ask a question, please press star 11 on your telephone. Please limit your questions to no more than two at this time. If you wish to ask additional questions, please rejoin the queue. One moment while we compile the Q&A roster. Our first question comes from Adam Samuelson with Goldman Sachs. Thank you for standing by. Adam, your line is now open.

Yes, thank you. Good morning, everyone.

Morning, Adam.

Morning. So, Todd, I guess the first question is thinking about Hypro and commercialization. You went through the plant kind of rollout and the facilities that are coming on stream by the end of the year. And I guess I wanted to just clarify on thinking about the contribution from incremental Hypro in 2023 as you now have, I think, 330,000 tons of ultra-high protein and as we just think about the incremental profit that that would generate as you sell those. And along those lines, kind of you talk about the commercialization of the 60% value high pro and kind of where you're seeing customer interest and pricing indications and when that could be a contributor to the top and bottom line.

Yeah, thanks. So we expect in 2023 that with these capacity we have in line and capacity we have in line at the end of the year and that that's under construction, we will see our first real contribution from this program during the year. So when you talk about 560 million gallons converted, today what we're seeing basis current values on 50 Pro is somewhere between kind of a 12 and 17 centigallon margin available today. and oil share is a strong part of that. So we think there's upside to those opportunities as well, but we're continuing to develop markets around that. So we sold pet food for 2020, the pet food vertical for 2023. We're starting to see interest in aquaculture for 2023, significant interest in poultry and swine as well for 2023. So the margins kind of range depending on what the customer wants from a protein perspective, whether it's 48, 50, 52, or 54. So You know, as we kind of go into the year and we're thinking about 2023, the starting point is 560 million gallons converted with margins ranging from 12 to 17 cents a gallon, depending on what we sell, and potentially upside from there.

Thank you. Oh. Our next question comes from Jordan Levi with Truth Securities. Jordan, your line is now open. Morning, all, and welcome back to the call, Jim.

Can you all hear me all right?

Yeah, we can, but we think we lost Adam, but we'll see what we can do to text him and get him back. Go ahead. Okay. Okay.

I just want to start off and ask on your comfort level when it comes to liquidity. When thinking about the next eight quarters or so, we know the focus is getting all the MSC online, still get a good amount of cash, but these swings in the ethanol market can come up and sometimes eat into some of that. So I'm curious how you feel about the capital runway going into 2023 and maybe any updated thoughts on 2023 CapEx and how that's shaping up.

I'll talk first on a little bit on the market. So, yeah, I mean, basically when we look at the third quarter between the LCM, which is non-cash, and obviously depreciation as well, you know, we really, while we did see some reduction in free cash flow, it wasn't significant enough for us to worry about anything. As we come into the fourth quarter, you know, ethanol margins have turned positive again and have increased over the last week or so. So from that standpoint, the fourth quarter looks pretty solid from the ability to begin to generate free cash flow again, notwithstanding the fact that we're going to continue to execute on our build program. By ending the year with the liquidity we have and, again, starting to see some opportunities to generate free cash flow and bringing on things like ultra-high protein next year, as well as these higher prices in corn oil pricing, I think what is critical is obviously You know, this was a unique third quarter with the record high corn basis, and we were literally dead on right in the middle of the hot spot. You know, we were paying 160 over for corn, almost 160 over for corn in southern Minnesota to 100 over for corn in Nebraska. And down in Tennessee, the end of the crop year was very tight as well. So we've seen some relief on that, and we've also seen margins expand back to allow the industry to have a margin, and then on top of that, our run rates continue to get better and better, and we will get execution through that as well. And then when you look at all of that and you look at the setup, I think from the standpoint of liquid fuels, you have a tight or almost unprecedented diesel situation, a heating oil situation. You've got tightness in gasoline as well, which you're seeing in the term structure. I think we're starting to see some of that fall over into ethanol as well, where people are realizing it's a molecule that needs to be used, and we're starting to see some increased off-takes from that perspective. So, you know, I think we're in a really good position when you start to look at the forward curve. You're not going to see much relative to 2023 yet in the ethanol margin. You know, our view is that where we're positioned right now, you know, and what we think are the fundamentals, I think we're in pretty good position to continue to execute the program without any issues on our balance sheet. It's cleaned up pretty well as we have no near-term maturities. And even more important, if China can start to kick back in on gas demand in 2023, I don't think the world is prepared for that either. So I think we're sitting in a pretty good position to continue to execute on the program. And as we said, we wanted to get through the clean sugar, number one, continue to build out all of our other assets. We're seeing some delays in Minnesota, but we're making it up on our DCO Max program, or DCO Tech now, sorry, DCO Tech program, where we can go after about seven or eight cents a gallon contribution just from from that while we're waiting to get permitting. So I think overall we're in a very good position liquidity-wise. Jim, CapEx?

Yeah, just to answer some of your question on kind of the 2023 look. If you go back and look at what I said earlier in the call, we kind of brought the top end of our CapEx range down for this year to 280 at the max. So when we think and look at the projects that we have outlined for next year, we're probably going to be somewhere in the range of $250 to $275 on the spend. And that is certainly, as Todd indicated, including those DCO tech build-outs that we want to do, which I know we haven't disclosed to the market yet what those costs are, but those are at a lower cost than building a full MSE out there today. So we're very mindful about the cadence of capital, but feel pretty good about the liquidity position where we are today. and how we see the guide. I think I would add on to it, we're bringing up over 200,000 plus tons of Hypro here now as we speak, which have not been in our run rates for the last nine months. So that lift plus the additional oil lift should also, as Hod has pointed out on Adam's question, should add to the bottom line when we get into the first part of next year.

Thank you. It's a great color. Just as a quick follow-up to that, and given you're bringing the MSP systems online, Central City's starting up, I'm just curious how the startup has been going. I know, Todd, you mentioned it starts to – the corn oil yields start taking up before the protein comes on. But I'm just curious what that timeline for startup has been trending and if that's changed at all.

No, I mean, our view has always been take about a quarter to get it fully up and running and ramped up. You know, sometimes we go a little faster as we learn more. One thing is everybody's well trained to run the systems now because they're trained at other facilities. But what we really wanted to do is start to, when we start commissioning, we literally start making oil on day one. And oil share today at 80 cents a pound, you want to make as much as you can because that's helping pay for the investment. In fact, oil alone can almost start to pay for the investment. It'd just be a longer return, but that's not why we built these. So the great thing is we get the benefit of that during startup, which early on when we started up Shenandoah, the oil market was very different back then. So we're pressing hard for oil yield, and then we bring on our protein dryers after that. As we said, Central City literally started up the protein dryer this week, and we started making product, and we're starting to send it to our silos, and the products come in on spec and And now we just continue to ramp higher. So ramp rates happen very fast once the dryer comes online. Again, in Mount Vernon, we're waiting. It's around a November 15th, 20th permit time that the state will allow us to turn the dryer on. And so we have to wait for that. And sometimes those are a gating item. But in the meantime, again, we're running the system. And for any of you that have seen the system, we can continue to run and really extract and segregate that oil fast, and that's going to help our fourth quarter as well. So we're really starting to get into the – as I said, I can't do much about a record corn basis in the third quarter and how this thing played out. What I can do is point to when I can see inflection in 2023 as we grow our customer base in protein, as we bring on – continue to bring on more systems, and even more importantly than that, we know – that what we possess in a low-carbon feedstock waste oil is very, very valuable. And we believe we still have significant opportunities to monetize that stream, even above what we're seeing today in the market. We continue to get approached constantly on partnering for this stream in one way, shape, or form or another. But in the meantime, what's been great is that we are trading at a premium to soybean oil. More renewable diesel demand continues to come on every day. And the pull from this industry is significant. So the plants have to run. We're going to run them hard. We're running them harder every day. And we're very comfortable with how we can start up MSC systems now, much more than in the beginning when it was a bigger learning curve.

Got it. Thanks for that. I'll leave it at that.

Thank you. Our next question comes from Kristen Owen with Oppenheimer & Co, Inc. Thank you for standing by. Kristen, your line is now open.

Hi, good morning. Thank you for taking the question.

Good morning.

So you talked about shipping in the fourth quarter to a variety of protein markets, I think swine, poultry, among them. You know, how advanced are the discussions with these partners? And can you speak to just generally the cycle times that you're seeing in terms of customer conversations, sort of given the macro backdrop that we're working in?

Yeah, it was hard to get engagement when you would show up and you have Shenandoah running and you're making 45,000 tons of protein or 50,000 tons of protein. It was hard to get engagement for them to believe you. that you can ship a full vessel, full hold of a vessel somewhere into the world or ship unit trains of this product. And when you want to get – now, we have seen other people start up somewhat similar smaller systems, and we're dealing with that as well in the market, and there's a bit of confusion on product. But we're getting through that now when somebody shows up and says, can you ship us this much quantity? And now we can say yes. And that's the difference. So now you can get real attention paid to you to get included in real rations across a full system. And we have built a sales team that is highly focused on that customer engagement. So we can now talk to an aquaculture producer in South America or Southeast Asia or a shrimp producer or a salmon producer somewhere in the world. And we can now talk to them about significant volumes available, consistent volumes available, and volumes available with redundancy. you're just not going to get the attention of a customer unless you have three or four or five of these plants running because they are very nervous you can't execute, much like what we saw with our pet food verticals. So as you know, pet food was one of our first verticals, and everybody's been trying to get this business from us. And that has been something that we obviously have to deal with. But when the customer that we've developed our relationship with and customers that we have developed our relationship with show up and say, you know, we want it and we want to make sure you have redundancy, we can still get the business and we still get it at a premium to the market. So, you know, that's one thing that I think is to our advantage. And we haven't even been able to necessarily take advantage of that yet because we haven't had the volume. So, again, now that we have the volume and somebody comes in and says, I need 100 cars a month of this product or I need 200 cars a month of this product or I need, you know, 10,000 tons in a hold of this product, We can say yes now, and that's a different engagement. So we have a full team of salespeople, nutritionists, and customer support and product development that is working with customers, not just domestically but internationally, on inclusion and how to use this product best. And again, it's not always the same when it comes out of any system. Our system is very unique, and our ability to give consistency is very unique at any protein level that they're looking for or even from the standpoint of yeast as well.

That's super helpful. The related question that I have for you is related to the 2024 EBITDA guidance, which you said you were on track for. I'm wondering if you can give us your updated thoughts, just given that you're pricing protein off of that soybean meal base, how you're thinking about protein pricing. maybe in that 2024, 2025 timeframe, across the J curve, just given the expectation of how much more soybean meal is expected to come online?

Yeah, I mean, that's been a question that we've been discussing with a lot of our customers, shareholders, et cetera. You know, when you go back and you take a history lesson, we brought on in two years in the ethanol industry 40 million tons of protein to the world. And while it might have been chunky for a year or two, it was absorbed very fast. And our view is when we look at what's coming online in soybean meal in the next kind of three to five years, somewhere around 15 to 20 million tons based on the current announced projects, it's our view, and it's just our view, that this will get absorbed into the world very quickly. And that this whole glut might last for a quarter or two, But people are building soy crush plants near the river to export because they believe the export market will continue to grow. Argentina continues to be a bit of an issue in the world and is not really a reliable supplier. And we see protein demand growing at 10 to 15 million tons per year in terms of demand globally. And that has happened really on average for the last 10, 15 years has been 9 million tons a year. And we've seen some years as high as 12 to 15 million tons. So if each year demand for protein grows somewhere between 10 and 12 million tons, and we're going to bring on 15 to 20 million tons of total protein over the next three to five years in soy crushing, our view is that it will get absorbed. And our view is that the market will quickly adjust to that, notwithstanding maybe a year of a chunky market. In the meantime, we offer a very different opportunity for our customer. And while the market wants to price this off a soybean meal, we are not a soybean meal replacement. We are an ingredient that provides other added benefits to them, and we can continue to go through those benefits with you. But while today some in the market want to price it off of their replacement of soybean meal, in certain applications, in other applications, we are a new ingredient that's getting added into their platform. And I'll just, Leslie, maybe give just two or three of the key components of why this product is very different than soybean meal.

The other aspects to take into account is that as a product, as it comes out of our biorefinery, we have a distinct advantage when it comes to the position on carbon, which is very high on the list of our customers. So we're getting a lot of traction there where people are looking for not only, you know, an advanced nutritional product like our product as it comes out, but also additional benefits. Really to address the other question you had on the J curve, If you really look at it as you proceed to get into the higher protein products, the 58, 60%, you're disconnecting the product from the soybean meal basis, and you're getting into a completely different category where you're looking at corn gluten meals, fish meals, other concentrates. And all of that can come from our same system, so there's no additional requirement from an investment perspective. And last but not least, the fact that our products are fermented, so it comes in a predigested state for a lot of these animals is of extreme importance relative to solvent extracted products like soybean meal.

Thanks so much for the caller. I'll pass it on. Thank you.

Thank you. Our next question comes from Ken Zaslow with BMO. Ken, thank you for standing by. Please go ahead.

Hey, good morning, guys.

Good morning.

Hey, can I just ask two questions? One is, can you walk us through, How do you think about 2023 expectations on a consolidated EBITDA? You went through a lot of pieces. My mind isn't that smart to be able to build all together. You just kind of worked that out for us, just kind of thinking about 2023 consolidated EBITDA. How do I think about that?

Yeah, I mean, at the recent, the last conference we did, we basically said, MSC is in that $90 to $120 million range opportunity for 2023. Corn oil was about $165 million opportunity. Ag and energy, typically in that $30 million range. And corporate overhead in that $60 million range, getting to a range of what we outlined at the last conference of $225 to $255 million at the last place we presented this range. There are definitely some moving pieces, some higher prices in corn oil that are potentially an opportunity. If we can maintain this 80-cent-a-pound pricing through 2023, you know, that will be an opportunity on the upside, and we have to watch pricing, obviously, on the downside. Same to watch kind of MSC. You know, whether it's 90 to 120 or 80 to 130, there's ranges in there. But all within that same, you know, mid-range 225 to 255, you know, you could say – low of 200 plus and a high of 260 plus, somewhere in that range. And I think that there's opportunities to even potentially go higher than that. But we're going to kind of leave our, and that doesn't include any ethanol at all. And I think while you can look at Q3 and say ethanol will never be good again, that's not the case. I mean, ethanol is in positive margins before corn oil this quarter already. We're starting to see the curve recover a little bit in 2023 as the market is very clear that it was undervalued as a molecule and nobody's paying attention to it. And we've seen those curves start to move. So we don't, while from these numbers, we take the view that we're going to give you, we'll let you decide where ethanol is going to come in. Our view is still in the forward curve that ethanol will be, you know, not necessarily negative all the time and potentially positive over the average. So And that's where we're at today relative to 2023, leaving our 24 and 25 guidance intact.

And then how much of a premium price are you getting on Hypro relative to your – how much of a premium are you getting on your Hypro? And is it consistent across your portfolio?

Yeah, so with every customer and every application, the price is a little bit different. So when we look at more of the commodity side and what we have to compete against, we could run our plants – our MSC plants harder and make a lower protein. So it's not always necessarily the exact price premium or discount you would get. It's how much margin you're going to make. And so when we guided you early on, when we initially did this investment thesis, we said the uplift is 12 to 15 cents a gallon going to 15 to 20 cents a gallon over time on our base product. And we believe the 60 Pro product is significantly higher than that as we move into those markets over three to five years. We didn't know how long it would take us to produce 60 per row. We now know we can do it in Wood River, and now we feel very confident we can do it in Shenandoah on demand. So we've reached that point now as well. So when we look at it, we'll price every market different depending on the protein that they want. So if it's just a commodity protein, we'll run a plant harder. Instead of making three pounds a bushel, we'll make four pounds a bushel, where we'll get higher volumes out of it, and we'll go against a little bit lower protein to be competitive at the 48 or 49 pro market. If somebody wants a 53 to 54 pro market, we can run a little bit slower. And again, it still comes down to that margin of kind of basically what we've outlined. The base margin was 12 to 15. The opportunity for upside is 15 to 20. And we're still now, even today, where we've seen soybean meal, when it collapsed a little bit against replacement corn, but now it's expanded back out, Those are margins today that are now possible.

Great. I appreciate it, guys. Thank you.

Thank you.

Thank you. Our next question comes from Adam Samuelson with Goldman Sachs. Thank you for standing by, Adam. Your line is now open.

Yeah, hi. Sorry about before. Todd, I was hoping to maybe clarify just some of those guidance points and make sure we're not double counting so that you talked about 12 to 17 cents per gallon uplift from high pro but there's also a kind of reference to distillers corn oil so I just want to be clear is that 15 is that 12 to 17 purely the high protein value or is that high protein value plus corn oil on the 550 million gallons that's been converted and I guess I'm just trying to clarify.

We've clarified it. We've never wavered from this. The corn oil that number we give you is based on the pre-MSC volumes that we make across our system, which is close to 300 million pounds a year. So if you take 300 million pounds, we figure it's 12 to 15 cents a pound in costs to make the corn oil. So if next year the market's 80 cents a pound and take 12 to 15 cents off that, your EBITDA revenue will be approximately 300 million, maybe a little bit less than that, 290 million pounds times 65 to 67 cents a pound, something like that. And so that's about $180, $190 million of opportunity on the high side. On the lower side, obviously, you can just do your math. If it gets to 50 cents a pound, you could do your math or 60 or 70 or 80 cents a pound. So That is just on the non-MSC corn oil. Included in the MSC has always been a corn oil oil share. And what we're seeing right now is even with higher corn oil prices, obviously we feel better now that our systems will run with a higher oil share and even potentially with the shrinking at times, and now today it's not like that, between a distiller's value and a high-protein soybean meal value, those spreads will move in and out. But since we have this base load of oil earnings in our protein MSC systems, then we feel confident that, and when we sell something, we're starting to see these margins. So it's a little bit of, it's in both places. If you actually just separated oil today, you know, our oil earnings in separation outside of protein would be higher than what we're giving you. But we included it in MSC because MSC is really not just a protein system. It's a separation system that separates lots of different products, including oil and including protein.

OK. That's really helpful. I'll pass it on. Thank you.

Thank you. Thank you. Our next question comes from Eric Stein with Craig Hallam. Thank you for standing by. Eric, please go ahead.

Good morning.

Hello, Eric.

Hey, so maybe just on carbon capture, you know, obviously the tax credits, the progress that's being made there on the Midwest Express, you've got that on one hand, but do notice or see that it seems like the local or state level, you know, kind of pushback or digging in versus pipelines going through, you know, fields, counties, etc., You know, so obviously optimistic about this and, you know, starting to be a contributor in, I believe, 2025. But maybe, you know, just your thoughts on the push and pull here as you look at carbon capture going forward.

Yeah, it's an interesting – well, I think, first of all, let's look at the economics of what's at stake here. The new IRA bill, Inflation Reduction Act, is an absolute – game changer to our company, to our industry, and even to the pipelines that are being built out there. Finally, it provides something to invest behind. Whether it's on a pipeline or it's a direct inject or whether it's something in our eastern plants where we can capture carbon and move it around and look at that area as well, these are game changers to our industry, not only from the fact that the economics are so significant, And the opportunity is so significant, things we've never seen before. But the fact that we will make low carbon ingredients in protein, in oil, and in alcohol, especially in alcohol, as we think about alcohol at the jet later in the decade. So when you kind of look what's going on with what we've committed to with six of our or eight of our plants on a pipeline, they continue to make great progress. They continue to continue to get higher and higher right away percentages locked down. in many, many states and we continue to support that at all of our plants from the standpoint of trying to get our farmers at least to commit to allowing that pipe to go through their ground and we've been successful at that. There will always be some holdouts when you build a pipeline and it's not just, I don't think you can just look at that and say that's immune to a, you know, just to carbon because there's 40,000 miles of pipe sitting in the state of Iowa today and pipelines are going to build a couple hundred miles just to get carbon out of the state. This is just a bit of a chicken and egg for these guys that are building these pipelines, but ultimately for agriculture and for the U.S. farmer, there has been no bigger opportunity than to try and sequester carbon out of ethanol plants and continue to drive the potential of this industry. So we're very excited about it. But if you look at the economics in a vacuum and you look at what we put out there for our 24, 25, 26 numbers and beyond, it's even hard for us to, when we stare at it, it's hard for us to even imagine that this money is available through this act. And it's not just available because you sequester carbon. It's available because now you're going to be incented to lower your energy from fossil fuels. So do things like combine heat and power systems. Do things like fluidized bed boilers. Do things like capture of anything that you can do to reduce your commitment to fossil fuel energy and do things that you can be almost your own co-gen site. The money is all there to do this. This 25 through 27 clean fuel production credit is really an incredible opportunity for this industry to decarbonize. And when we get out of that, and if alcohol to jet is successful, which we believe there's a high probability of success in using alcohol to produce jet fuel, because the CI scores will be so significantly lower. When you go out and you look at 24 and 25 and 26 for a company like ourselves, If we put those numbers that are available under the IRA in our guidance, nobody would believe us. So it's a great opportunity for us. We're committed to sequestering carbon. And I think there's a high probability of success that the project that we're on, their pipeline, will get built. All right. That's great perspective. Thank you.

Thank you. Thank you. Our next question. comes from Salvatore Tiano with Bank of America. Thank you for standing by. Your line is now open.

Yeah, hi, thank you very much. One question just a little bit about how, you know, what opportunity you have to manage your ethanol system. You mentioned that you brought forward a lot of maintenance and turnarounds. I'm just wondering, given, you know, how extreme the basis was, were you considering actual shutdowns for facilities? And if this would happen again, let's say if, you know, the corn harvest may not be great, if this would happen again next year, what options do you have to manage your systems to kind of avoid EBITDA losses?

Yeah, I mean, this is such a unique, I mean, I guess a unique, but more unique than we've ever seen. This inverse, you know, you have to make a decision on any given day to run through the inverse. And that's the decision we made. In every year in history, or a lot of years in history, the inverses break, and they break hard, and they break fast. And you don't want to be off and not running during that time. This one just lasted longer. And our plants just happened to be basically on a square one of the high basis level of the United States. Fairmont, Minnesota, 150 over. Nebraska, 100 over. And the ethanol industry did not adjust to that. Now, as we're in Q4, and we still see elevated basis levels and rising in Q4, we see that the need for our product and the need for this molecule to be made and the need for the low-carbon oils to be made is driving the fact that ethanol margins are positive before contribution from corn oil at this point. So, you know, I think it was a unique situation. Could it happen again? Yeah, we need to grow corn in the United States. We need to have a good growing season. We need South America to grow well as well. We need that to come off this year better than the last couple of years as well. So we've got to watch that weather closely. But the river system helped a little bit, backing up some corn into the system. I think that we're only running at a million-barrel pace as an industry, and that's not going to do it. If we can get through winter and not build stocks and we get into this driving season next year and we get China to reengage in their economy and start to, instead of exporting gas, use their own gasoline, I think it's setting ethanol up for 2023 to have a great opportunity on top of everything we're doing. But we're going to run through these situations for the most part. I mean, we could have probably shut a plant down or two, but the cost of doing that versus the cost of bringing it back up and the rest of it, we just ran through it. And in the middle of all that, we're seeing increased ability to drive these plants harder with our operations team that we have in place than we ever have had before. We've had 15 of the last 30 days were record run rates with our suite of plants, and we're going to continue to drive that. And by bringing our maintenance forward from Q4 to Q3 and just driving hard to do 10 turnarounds in one quarter. It's almost unheard of. But we did it so we could position ourselves now to run how we should be running and take advantage of harvest basis levels and really hopefully drive to get ourselves back on track here. But we're going to run these plants because we're going to run protein, we're going to run oil, and we're going to run sugar. And when this is all in place, a negative nine cent a gallon margin would have been a significant positive margin under our system today. And so if this was worst case scenario without protein fully on board yet and without sugar coming online and with corn oil yields through protein, then we're in a pretty good place as we approach 23 and 24 to hit our numbers.

Okay, perfect. And I also wanted to ask, you mentioned that with regard to the IRA benefits, you know, in a few years if we were to put numbers into your what you would expect, nobody would believe it. But I think if we were to try to do something like that, I think the idea is that with a new bill, the credit is two cents a gallon for each point under a CI of 50. So based on kind of this guide for ethanol CI, ethanol plants, ethanol CI score is right now and what projects you believe you could do, you know, can we actually try to put some numbers? to what could happen after 2025?

I think we'll start to put that into some of our forward ideas on what is the art of the possible. But when you look at it, and you look at it as a starting point, under Argonne-Greete, our plants are just above 50 carbon intensity. When you sequester on a pipeline, you reduce it by 25 to 30 points. So under 45Z, there's 45Qs and there's 45Zs and a combination of all that, and which one you choose is all subject to interpretation. But our view is you choose the 45Z, you get your two cents a point below 50 on your reduction. Obviously, we share that with our pipeline partner. But on top of that, we can do things like combine heat and power, where it's a two cent per point again there, and you can maybe reduce your intensity by five to ten points, and your capital is kind of a one to two-year payback on that basis, this program, because you're getting basically the U.S. government has put a program in place to incent you to do this. On top of that, you could even go lower on your carbon intensity by doing other things. So there is a shot that you get into that zero to 15, 20 CI range to have a low carbon fuel. And that's just, it's just such a game changer. And California at that point doesn't really, and California, if you ship there, great. But this clean fuel production credit, that's not a California program. That's a US program. And it just allows you to benefit, you know, over the whole United States to ship your product. But if you get into a low carbon market like California, Oregon, or Washington, there's even upside from there. So we're talking in the potential of hundreds of millions of dollars of opportunity to go after. I think that's a little bit different from when we first went on the pipeline, you know, a couple years ago, and the only program in place was a 45Q at $50 and a little bit of LCFS, which has come down significantly. This has really set us up to succeed as a business in carbon reduction, as well as, you know, our partners that we're going to be partnering with to help sequester our carbon as well to succeed.

Thanks, sir.

Thanks.

Thank you. At this time, there are no further questions. I will now turn the call back over to Todd Becker, CEO, for closing remarks.

Yeah, thanks, everybody. Obviously, not the quarter we wanted to have, but the quarter we want to have is starting now and the company we want to have is starting in the fourth quarter. That's by bringing on the rest of our capacity, delivering on five major projects during supply chain and COVID and tightness and all the rest of it that we've been dealing with to deliver These five projects, and with the biggest under construction as we speak, we believe we are executing on a strategy we laid out as we approach 2023, 24, and 25. We maintain that the fact that we are developing new markets, unique opportunities, low carbon ingredients, the ability for us to strategically put ourselves as a low carbon feedstock provider to renewable diesel markets, we believe we'll be able to monetize that opportunity going forward for our shareholders. We also believe that decarbonizing this platform will have significant effects on our financial capabilities as well, and producing low-carbon alcohols to be made into sustainable aviation fuels from 2025 and on is positioning us very, very well for the last half of the decade. And on top of that, the dextrose glucose opportunity, we will know a lot more as we continue to build out this first plant, and that's just really our pathway to success. opportunities that I don't think any of us really thought of when we started this. So we're in a great place. We're financially sound. We're in a great financial position. As we launch into Q4 and going into 2023, we're very excited about the opportunities that are ahead of us, and we appreciate your support. Thank you.

Thank you for participating in today's conference. This now concludes the program. You may now disconnect.