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spk11: At this time, all parties will be in listen-only mode. If anyone should require operator assistance during the conference, please press star zero from your telephone keypad. Today's conference is being recorded. If you have any objections, you may disconnect at this time. At this time, I'd like to turn the call over to Karan Kapoor, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
spk10: Thank you, and good morning, everyone. Joining me today are Chris Cox, Hasbro's Chief Executive Officer, and Gina Getter, Hasbro's Chief Financial Officer. Today, we will begin with Chris and Gina providing commentary on the company's performance. Then we will take your questions. Our earnings release and presentation slides for today's call are posted on our investor website. The press release and presentation include information regarding non-GAAP adjustments and non-GAAP financial measures. Our call today will discuss certain adjusted measures which exclude these non-GAAP adjustments. A reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP measures is included in the press release and presentation. Please note that whenever we discuss earnings per share or EPS, we are referring to earnings per diluted share. Before we begin, I'd like to remind you that during this call and the question and answer session that follows, members of Hasbro management may make forward-looking statements concerning management's expectations, goals, objectives, and similar matters. There are many factors that could cause actual results or events to differ materially from the anticipated results or other expectations expressed in these forward-looking statements. These factors include those set forth in our annual report on Form 10-K, our most recent 10-Q, in today's press release, and in our other public disclosures. We undertake no obligation to update any forward-looking statements made today to reflect events or circumstances occurring after the date of this call. I would now like to introduce Chris Cox. Chris?
spk09: Thanks, Kern, and good morning, everyone. For more than a year now, you've heard me outline Hasbro's strategy to refocus on play behind a philosophy of fewer, bigger, better. Fewer skews that drive higher impact, bigger investment behind winning brands and more focused categories, and better innovation driven by a renewed leadership team and a focus on kids, parents, and fans, our consumers, the lifeblood of Hasbro. We laid out a blueprint for a more focused and profitable company with a number of growth initiatives built on a diverse portfolio of some of the most iconic brands in the toy and game industry. While business transformations take time, I'm pleased with how much we accomplished in 2023, setting the table for a 2024 punctuated by strong profit growth and momentum in renewing Hasbro's innovation engine. We're entering 2024 with a healthier balance sheet, a leaner cost structure, and an operational rigor that will maintain and build on these improvements in the quarters ahead. In 2023, we took substantial action to bolster our balance sheet. At the end of the year, we closed our deal with Lionsgate on E1 film and TV, allowing us to focus our investments on higher return, play-focused initiatives across toys, games, and digital. Proceeds from the deal allowed us to reduce our debt by approximately $400 million. As we shift our entertainment strategy to an asset-light and partner-led model, we took a $1 billion impairment, a non-cash item, in Q4, which reflects the sale of E1 and a change in outlook for the balance of our owned and operated production efforts. This shift frees up more capital for us to reinvest in toys, games, and particularly our digital future. Between hard work from our sales and operations teams and some of the financial actions we took at the end of the quarter, we entered 2024 with inventories down over 50% year over year, which is well below 2019 levels. We also took steps to improve our structural profitability, exiting a number of low or negative profit businesses that we have shifted to a licensed out model. Finally, we are driving better than expected cost savings through our operational excellence work, unlocking crucial investment capacity as we seek to connect with fans of all ages and across all play patterns. Previously, we communicated $350 to $400 million in annual run rate savings. We're updating our target to $750 million of gross savings by the end of 2025, with half of it dropping to the bottom line. This allows us to reinvest in our business, meaningfully improve our cash flows, and return cash to our shareholders, which we are committed to continuing through our category-leading dividend. Since I became CEO in 2022, Hasbro has returned almost a billion dollars to shareholders and paid down over half a billion dollars in debt. While 2023 was challenging and we still expect the toy industry to face near-term headwinds, we believe we're taking the necessary steps to turn around our consumer products business. Wizards in Digital Gaming is coming off a banner year, led by Magic's Universes Beyond, the success of Baldur's Gate 3 from our partners at Larian, and Monopoly Go from Scopely. 2024 is about returning consumer products to profitability, investing for long-term momentum in games, and driving significant improvements in Hasbro's bottom line, fueled by operational discipline and renewed product innovation. In short, we're putting all the right pieces together to keep investing in our growth initiatives while expanding the ways our franchises reach fans through digital games. We expect the next year we'll likely see continued headwinds in the toy category. We're exiting 2023 with our retail inventory down around 20%. While we think Hasbro's retail inventory is in a healthy position, across the industry a lot of older discounted inventory still remains in the market. The consumer remains value conscious, and we anticipate entertainment will be less of a tailwind in the year ahead, behind a reduced box office slate. Anticipating these headwinds, we made necessary choices to get our cost structure and inventory positions healthy, accelerating a number of cost savings initiatives by several quarters. Since I became CEO, we have significantly enhanced our consumer insights capabilities and upgraded our design and toy leadership. In 2024, we'll see more and more of the resulting innovation improvements as these capability upgrades come to market across our portfolio. As such, we believe we're in a good position to at least pace the industry this year with innovation and share trends accelerating to ahead of market as we head into 2025. Turning around a product pipeline is key with the right people and the right insights. At the end of the day, it's all about great product. In the back half of 2023, we started to see the first evidence of our new team and products working. Take Furby, for example. This was a product we took our time testing and iterating based on consumer insights. It paid off as Furby was one of the top new toy introductions in 2023. We continued the Furby craze in December with the launch of Furblitz, another hit introduction, and I'm excited to continue building this franchise in 2024. 2023 was also a strong year for our Transformers franchise on the back of the hit movie Transformers Rise of the Beasts from our partners at Paramount, driving point of sale growth of 35%. We have some exciting activations planned as we celebrate the brand's 40th anniversary in 2024, as well as the star-studded animated movie Transformers 1 coming this summer along with fresh merchandise. This year also marks Peppa Pig's 20th birthday. We'll be celebrating with new innovative products and an entertainment special featuring A-list talent Katy Perry and Orlando Bloom. After gaining share in the arts and crafts category in 2023, with another strong year including our ultimate ice cream truck, the Play-Doh team continues to innovate. Expect more creative surprises and new cross-brand collaborations in the year ahead. In action figures, we are leaning into our category-leading collaboration with the Walt Disney Company for their Marvel Super Heroes Assemble marketing campaign, featuring new price points and products across our lines. including all new preschool fun with Spidey and his amazing friends. For Star Wars, we're excited to expand our best-selling Lightsaber Forge Kyber Core series and introduce our new $7.99 Epic Series 4-inch action figures. We saw an incredibly strong launch from Beyblade X last year in Japan from our partners at Takara Tomy and are eagerly anticipating the U.S. launch this summer, what we believe will be one of the hottest new toys of 2024. It's an exciting product that we think long-time collectors and kids fresh to the franchise will be thrilled with. The Blaster category continues to be under pressure, but we also continue to believe this is a strong and enduring play pattern for fans of all ages. This year we'll be introducing new innovation into the category, featuring a new performance dart technology, pop-off-the-shelf design, and attractive pricing up and down the range. Board games continues to be a leading category for us, and one we anticipate will grow in the year ahead. Twister Air was the number one new game across the G10 markets in 2023, according to Serkana, thanks to an innovative new augmented reality experience. You're going to see a renewed focus on expanding genres, leveraging our reach and distribution strength to introduce more cool new games than ever, and working with some of the brightest designers in the industry to to give their games a platform they deserve. Whether it's adult party games, family card games, casual strategy, or extending mega hits like Monopoly, 2024 will be a big year for gaming from Hasbro. Speaking of games, Wizards and Digital outperformed our guidance in 2023, driven by a series of blockbuster hits. Magic had another record year in 23, with a string of amazing new sets. including our best-selling set of all time, The Lord of the Rings Tales of Middle-Earth. While a product like Lord of the Rings creates a tough comp in 2024, we have some unique sets that fans are eagerly anticipating, including March's Fallout, a new Commander-focused Universes Beyond product line, this summer's Modern Horizons 3, the sequel to our prior best-selling set of all time, and this September's charming new world, Bloomboro. We continue to see the power of our franchises play out with our digital licensing partners. Monopoly Go, from our partners in Scopely, is the number one mobile game launch of all time in the US, outperforming the launches of global phenomena like Pokemon Go and Candy Crush, and the fastest mobile title to reach $1 billion in the US. And the game continues to break records. In Q4 alone, the game drove more than $800 million in revenue worldwide for Scopely. As far as our financial participation goes for revenue and profit, it's like having the equivalent of a billion-dollar movie supporting Monopoly, except every year, with the impact growing sequentially as the game works through our minimum guarantees and marketing allowances. Baldur's Gate 3 from our partners at Larian continues to win awards around the world and is one of the highest-rated video games of all time. We expect a long tail into 2024 and beyond for this mega-hit. Last but not least, we have a compelling new lineup of adventures, core rulebooks, and new digital first offerings for D&D as we celebrate this iconic brand's 50th anniversary. We'll launch the biggest update to 5th edition since its introduction in 2014, reinventing everything from the artwork of our iconic monsters, to new classes, to new mechanics, to bold new ways to bring to life the world of D&D digitally. All of this will add up to more and more impressive product as the year goes on, leading into an even brighter 2025. We look forward to sharing more about 2025, all new brands, entertainment collaborations, and a chance to really show what this team is capable of later this year. Wrapping up, 2023 was a challenging year, but not without significant wins. Wins we believe augur the Hasbro to come, A company we dedicated to play, innovation, and fun for fans of all ages. Last year, we launched a top toy with Furby. We won a Game of the Year award with Twister Air. And we wowed tens of millions with Monopoly Go, Transformers Rise of the Beast, Baldur's Gate 3, and Magic Lord of the Rings. All while cleaning up the business, selling E1, paying down debt, and clearing excess inventory. which makes for a healthier, stronger Hasbro to start 2024. I'm excited to see the results to come. I'd now like to turn over the call to Gina to share more about our detailed results and to provide guidance for the year. Gina?
spk04: Thanks, Chris, and good morning, everyone. 2023 marks an important milestone in our transformation towards a more streamlined and profitable toy and game company. As Chris mentioned, transformations take time, And amidst the tough industry backdrop, I'm proud of the progress the Hasbro team made over the past several quarters in resetting the business and getting us in the best position for 2024. Before I touch on the financial highlights from the past year, I want to recap three major actions we took and how to think through their impacts. First, we successfully closed the sale of the E1 film and TV business to Lionsgate, and we used the proceeds to reduce debt by $400 million. which will result in annual interest expense savings of approximately $25 million. In addition to reducing our leverage, the sale of E1 frees up capital to invest in higher growth initiatives, while allowing us to continue monetizing Hasbro IP in an asset-light structure. In conjunction with the sale and the change in the business strategy for family brands, namely Peppa Pig and PJ Masks, we recorded a non-cash goodwill and intangible asset impairment of approximately $1 billion, which you will see in our reported results. As we look to 2024, besides the reduction in interest expense, we also expect to see an improvement in operating margin, as well as an improvement to cash flow, given the reduction in production spending. Second, in Q4, we accelerated efforts to clean up our excess inventory. As I had mentioned last quarter, we were focused on starting 2024 in a cleaner position and would remain agile in taking actions consistent with broader category momentum. While we landed within our revenue guidance, we did not see the holiday season pickup that we were hoping for, and as a result, took more aggressive actions in bringing inventory levels down over 50% from the prior year. Our inventory is now running well below pre-pandemic levels, and we believe this improved position will allow us to drive higher value retail distribution and return focus to upcoming toy and game innovation. We also expect annual savings of roughly $10 million from exiting overflow locations previously used to store excess inventory. And while this was the right decision for the long-term health of the business, the near-term impact from accelerating this cleanup resulted in a roughly $130 million non-cash impact operating income. Lastly, as part of our operational excellence program, we made the difficult decision in Q4 to reduce the size of our workforce. While these decisions are never easy, this move will enable cost savings, which will improve profitability and fuel investments towards long-term growth around toy and digital games innovation. Moving to our financial results and business segment highlights, in Q4, we saw a continuation of the trend seen throughout much of the year. Total hazard revenue of $1.3 billion was down 23% versus last year. Wizards of the Coast in digital gaming revenue increased 7%, behind ongoing contributions from the award-winning Baldur's Gate 3 and Monopoly Go. Consumer products declined 25 percent due to the planned business exits, broader category declines, and an enhanced focus on clearing inventory. Q4 adjusted operating loss of $50 million was down year-on-year, mostly driven by non-recurring and non-cash charges of $168 million, which includes the $130 million of inventory write-off. We believe the cleanup efforts are behind us as we are starting 2024 at much healthier levels compared to prior years, and our retail inventory is at an acceptable level. Q4 adjusted net earnings were $52 million with diluted earnings per share of 38 cents, also down versus the prior year, primarily due to the aforementioned non-recurring charges. For the full year 2023, Total Hasbro revenue of $5 billion was down 15% versus 2022 and within our previously stated guidance range. Wizards of the Coast and digital gaming revenues grew 10% ahead of our guidance, benefiting from the success of Baldur's Gate 3, Magic the Gathering, and Monopoly Go. Consumer products revenues were down 19% for the full year, driven by planned business exits, softer industry trends, and stronger inventory management on behalf of our retailers. Adjusting for the exit of brands and markets, revenue would have declined by 15%. And despite the tougher category backdrop, we delivered some bright spots within our toy portfolio, including Transformers, Twister Air, Furby, and G.I. Joe. On a reported basis, the entertainment segment revenue declined by 31% as the writer and actor strikes impacted content deliveries. Family Brands revenue grew 6% from streaming deals of animated content in support of Hasbro's brands. Total Hasbro Inc. 2023 adjusted operating profit was $477 million, down 48% versus last year, primarily driven by the non-recurring expenses as well as lower revenues. 2023 adjusted net earnings of $349 million, or $2.51 per diluted share, was down 44% versus last year. Besides the charges for inventory, earnings were negatively impacted by content impairments and higher royalty expense, partially offset by our cost savings program and a one-time tax benefit. Operating cash flow for the full year was $726 million, well ahead of our guidance and nearly double from the prior year, driven mostly by a working capital benefit of approximately $350 million, due to the inventory cleanup efforts. We ended the year with $545 million in cash on our balance sheet and reduced debt by approximately $500 million. We also returned $388 million of capital to our shareholders via dividends. Before I move to guidance for 2024, I want to frame how we are thinking about the year ahead from an operational perspective, and in particular, how we're looking to turn around the consumer products business. In 2023, we took the necessary steps in our transformation to reset the business. This year, with the right foundation in place, we are focused on reinvigorating innovation across the portfolio while continuing to drive operational rigor, which we expect to pave the way for sustainable, profitable growth. The near-term model that we're building is one where cost productivity provides the fuel to innovate and grow the business. And in 2024, there remains a significant opportunity to improve the underlying profitability. while rebuilding its innovation engine. These two go hand in hand and align with our overarching strategy of focusing on fewer, bigger, and better brands. Over the past several quarters, we have been mobilizing around this imperative and taking actions to simplify and prioritize resources on our largest portfolios and biggest bets. One of the single biggest contributors to complexity reduction relates to our product portfolio. Moving into 2024, we have eliminated about half of our SKUs, These skews were only 2% of our revenue and were duplicative and unprofitable, clogging the network and creating cost for us and our retailers. Along similar lines, we made the decision to move to an out-licensed model for brands where we determined the respective path to scale and profitability as an owned and operated entity did not meet our internal threshold. In 2024, For Real Friends and Easy Bake Oven will transition. While there are short-term impacts to revenue from this model shift, we ultimately can expect greater operating profit dollars from outlicensed IP, and it allows us to focus resources back to our core brands. In 2023, we started the work to streamline our supply chain and improve the efficiency of the organization. And in 2024, we will be continuing these efforts by reaching further upstream to unlock value in our product design and manufacturing processes. We are taking an organization-wide focus across the supply chain, brand teams, product development, procurement, and manufacturing to identify waste and redefine the right design-to-value equation for each product. Ultimately, this will culminate in higher margins and contribute to an improved play experience. We started this work last year on select brands within our Hasbro gaming portfolio and will be rapidly extending this approach to two of our biggest brands, Nerf and Play-Doh. Also within our supply chain, we are building new capabilities within planning and forecasting to ensure that inventory levels, both owned and retail, remain within the desired thresholds. We made significant progress coming out of 2023, and these updated processes and tools will ensure that we maintain a healthy inventory position. Since coming on board at Hasbro, I've talked about the imperative to bring costs down within managed expenses to stop the dynamic of overhead growing faster than revenue, particularly within the consumer product segment. In December, we announced the next round of actions to address the organizational structure. We have also introduced zero-based budgeting as a tool to help us optimize our spending and ensure dollars invested are driving the right actions and are in support of our strategy. And finally, we are continuing to enhance our capabilities around consumer insights, revenue growth management, and marketing effectiveness as core drivers in strengthening our foundation and enhancing product development. Looking forward to the 2024 holidays, we have more innovation compared to last year that's backed by insights and stronger pricing precision. This, coupled with stronger plan execution with our retailers, will enable Q4 growth across the toy business. Turning to guidance for 2024 and looking more closely at the two main operating segments. Total Wizards revenue is forecasted down 3% to 5%. The decline is primarily a result of the strong growth delivered in 2023 behind the launch of Baldur's Gate 3 and the Magic Lord of the Rings set. Looking at each of the pieces, we are planning for growth within D&D with the upcoming update of the fifth edition and the continued expansion of D&D Beyond. Magic will have the same number of releases in 2024 as last year, but revenue will be flat to down as we count Lord of the Rings. It's important to call out that Magic will be back to growth in 2025 as we expand our universes beyond lineup. Licensed digital games will be relatively flat. The revenue from Baldur's Gate 3 will begin to taper down as we move through the year and will be partially offset by the continued momentum of Monopoly Go. With the success of the game, we are now anticipating that we will begin to record revenue higher than the contract minimum guarantee in the back half of the year. From a phasing standpoint, we expect Wizards revenue to grow in the front half with the decline coming in the back half as we comp the huge launches. Wizards operating margin will be between 38 and 40%, which will be up 200 to 400 basis points versus last year. The margin improvement is a result of a favorable mix shift within digital, lower royalty rates across magic, and strong cost management within operating expenses. Margins are also benefiting from supply chain cost productivity more than offsetting the inflation. For consumer products, revenue will be down 7% to 12%. About half of the decline is due to actions we've taken to improve profitability, including the planned business exits, as well as a reduction in unprofitable closeout revenue, given the significant inventory cleanup executed at year-end. The other half of the decline is a result of prevailing category trends. Overall, we are planning to grow share in the categories in which we compete and are leaning into innovation green shoots with step-ups in Hasbro Gaming, Beyblade, Play-Doh, Furby, and Nerf. And we are also adapting a more agile approach with our marketing dollars to better target consumers and increase the effectiveness of the spend. We are forecasting revenue trends will improve as we move through the year with steeper declines in Q1 and Q2 and stabilization coming in the back half of the year behind innovation, marketing effectiveness, and maintaining healthy retail inventory levels heading into the holidays. A key focus for 2024 is improving the profitability of toys. and we are forecasting operating margins to be between 4 and 6 percent, which is 500 to 700 basis points better than last year. Approximately 400 basis points of improvement is driven by the lack of the non-recurring inventory charges, and this is almost completely offset by the anticipated volume declines and associated deleverage impact. The additional margin expansion is driven by a combination of favorable product mix due to less closeout volume, supply chain cost savings more than offsetting inflation, reduced complexity across the network, and operating expense reductions. Margin will also be positively impacted from the work on SKU elimination and design to value, which I mentioned earlier. For entertainment, stripping out the impact of the E1 divestiture, revenue will be down approximately $15 million versus last year, and operating margin will show significant improvement driven by operating expense reductions, as well as lapping the impact of the D&D movie impairment in 2023. We will continue to report entertainment as a separate segment for 2024, albeit on a much smaller base. As part of the 2024 guidance, we are increasing our gross cost savings target through 2025 from the $350 to $400 million communicated in December to $750 million. Through 2023, we have delivered approximately $220 million of gross cost savings and anticipate a sizable step up as we move through the next two years. Roughly half of the gross cost savings will drop to the bottom line as we focus on improving profitability. and the remaining dollars will be reinvested back into the business to support growth initiatives, including the reinvigoration of toy innovation and the continued investment in the gaming business. With the improvement in operating margin across all segments, total Hasbro Inc. EBITDA is forecasted to be $925 million to $1 billion, up $215 to $290 million versus the prior year. The positive impact from the cost structure reset, as well as the lack of the one-time inventory cleanup in 2023, is more than able to offset the revenue decline and cost inflation. We are planning for relatively flat owned inventory levels in 2024 and estimate approximately $225 million of project capital to support growth initiatives and invest back into the infrastructure as we continue to rebuild the underpinning of the operation. Ending cash will be slightly down versus 2023, driven by relatively flat owned inventory levels, increased capital project spending, and additional costs associated with the restructuring actions announced in December. From a capital allocation standpoint, our priorities remain to first invest behind the core business. Second is to return cash to shareholders via the dividend. And third, to continue progressing towards our long-term leverage targets and pay down debt. As you heard Chris mention, we remain committed to our category-leading dividend and believe that the changes that we've made within working capital to free up cash, as well as the changes we're making on the broader cost structure, provide enough cash flexibility to deliver on the capital allocation priorities. The Board has declared our next quarterly dividend payable in May, and keeping consistent with industry best practices as we move through 2024, we will be shifting the declaration of the dividend to more closely align with the record dates. And to close, looking out beyond 2024, we expect that the consumer products business will return to low single-digit revenue growth and that wizards will return to mid to high single-digit revenue growth. With our step-up in cost savings, we remain committed to getting to 20% operating margin with the potential to reach that milestone before 2027. And with that, I'll turn it back to Chris to wrap up.
spk09: Thanks, Gina. Turnarounds take time. And for our toy business, we are still in the early innings. While we're likely to face some near-term industry headwinds in 2024, and we're comping a better-than-planned 2023 for Wizards, the work we have done under the hood to strengthen our balance sheet, upgrade our planning, and right-size our inventory are a strong foundation to build from. I want to thank the teams at Hasbro for driving this and putting our fans first. This year is all about execution as we build on that foundation, drive our profitability, and reinvigorate our innovation pipeline for category share gains in 2024 and renewed top-line growth in 2025 and beyond. We'll now pause to take your questions.
spk11: Thank you. We'll now be conducting a question and answer session. If you'd like to ask a question, please press star 1 from your telephone keypad. and a confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue. You may press star 2 if you would like to remove your question from the queue. For participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the star keys. So that we may address questions from as many participants as possible, we ask that you please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. One moment, please, for our first question. Our first question will be from the line of Eric Handler with Roth MKM. Pleased to see you with your question.
spk13: Good morning. Thanks for the question. A lot to digest here. I wonder if you could talk about what the retail situation and your cost structure looks like international versus North America.
spk09: Sure. I think perhaps Gina and I will answer this question. Good morning, Eric. Generally speaking, we're feeling pretty good about where our retail situation is. In the U.S. and Europe, in terms of retail inventory, we're down about 20% year over year. That translates to about a four-week improvement on supply. So between Europe and the U.S., we generally have about 17 to 20 weeks of supply at our major retailers. which is about what we'd like to see. It's about what our normal is pre-pandemic. So generally speaking, that means we neither see retail inventory as a tailwind nor a headwind, which is nice because over the last year or so, it's been decidedly a headwind as retailers have been trying to right-size their inventories. I think if we have any concerns inside of retail, it's that there's still a lot of industry discounted merchandise, particularly in what we would call the growth channel or kind of like value resellers. That's going to take a quarter or two to work through. But again, based on our inventory position, we have very little aged inventory and any aged inventory we have has a PO associated with it. So we feel in a generally good position. Gina, anything to add?
spk04: You know, Eric, the second part of your question about the profitability between North America and our international markets, I mean, North America is our highest margin market. Within international, a couple of things that draw that margin profile down. One is within the allowances and just how we intersect or interact with the retailers. That is a bit more costly than what we have in the U.S. And the second piece is really within our overhead structure to support the international business. Both of those pieces we are working to address. So through our initiatives of revenue growth management, that is squarely focused on all of that cost that's sitting between both revenue and net revenue. And then the second piece on overhead, all of the cost savings initiatives that we've put into motion will start to attack the cost structure of North America as well as of the international.
spk13: Great. And then just as a follow-up, Chris, you've talked before about the inevitability that You know, magic has to see a, you know, slowdown just because of law of large numbers in revenue. And D&D was, you know, supposed to pick up the torch and, you know, drive, you know, higher growth. I wonder if you could talk about maybe some of the key drivers with D&D that as you look at over the next few years where, you know, what's going to build that business even more?
spk09: Yeah, for sure. So last year we were fortunate in that both Magic and D&D were growers for us. You know, the Magic tabletop business was up probably in the 3% to 5% range. We had a little bit of attrition on digital, but still the business was up low single digits. And D&D was up over 75% on a total brand basis. You know, I think the contributors for D&D's growth last year will be very similar to what they'll be moving forward. We continue to think D&D Beyond was an excellent acquisition. It really is the way increasingly people are playing tabletop role-playing games. I think it's an excellent platform for us to build upon and expand the ways that people can play, the ways that people can experience theater of the mind, and also for us to distribute and showcase a more diverse set of content. whether that's universe is beyond style content like we do with magic or our major creators content or user generated content. So I think you'll see more from that on the tabletop side. We continue to have a robust entertainment slate on D&D that we're working with several partners behind, notably the new streaming series from Paramount that we're partnering with them on. And then video games will clearly be a huge leg up on the D&D business. Baldur's Gate 3 is one of the seminal role-playing games of all time. It's won multiple Game of the Year awards. Our partners at Larian really knocked it out of the park with that and were fantastic to work with. Baldur's Gate 3 is just the first of several new video games that will be coming out over the next five to ten years. that I think will continue to power that franchise. And really, I think the three combined, you know, continued innovation on tabletop, powered by D&D Beyond, you know, targeted entertainment, working through partners in an asset light model, and then great video game content through licensees and through our own internal studios. I think the future is bright for that brand. Thank you very much.
spk11: Our next question is from the line of Christopher Horvers with JP Morgan. Pleased to see with your questions.
spk08: Thanks and good morning. So, first a clarification. Did you say you expect consumer products to be flat in 3Q and then up in 4Q? In that mix, how are you thinking about NRF growing again? And to what extent are you taking in a shorter holiday calendar next year? As a part of that, you know, fourth quarter question, you know, could you mention what the specific lift in 4Q23 was from clearance sales?
spk04: All right. I will try to dissect all of those for you, Chris. So you've gotten the phasing generally right within CP. So as we think about the guide of 7 to 12 down, you're going to see steeper declines in Q1 and Q2, similar to what we saw playing through Q3, kind of the average what we saw playing through in Q3, Q4. As we look at Q3 of 24, we start to stabilize. And as we move into Q4, we're planning for growth. As we think about which brands are going to carry it, you know, it's really behind the strong innovation that we're putting in, Nerf being one of them. So we do have some innovation that's coming. That will be a market kind of in the back half of the year as we head into holiday. In terms of your last question on the lift specifically from closeouts, I don't know that I have that number listed. to an exact extent. What I would say is that our closeout volume and revenue was generally consistent with what we saw play through the year prior. There wasn't a huge delta from previous years. And then couple that with all of the efforts that we took to clean up inventory, as we're looking here in the front part of the year, we're seeing that closeout volume come down quite significantly. So nothing I would call out as different as we played through Q4.
spk09: As you think about the back half, Chris, you know, I'd be really looking at Beyblade X as a huge launch for us. You know, it did many orders of magnitude larger in the launch in Japan last year versus Beyblade Burst from 2016. We're expecting it to be quite a runner. And the early feedback from the toy fairs is our retailers are getting behind it as well. We have some really cool innovation across price points for Play-Doh that I think will continue to the run on that brand, both building share and building point of sale and sell-in. And then we have quite a lineup of board games that will be coming out throughout the year. But generally speaking, we have a good Q4 for our board games, and we think this year will be no exception.
spk08: Got it. And then on the Magic business, I guess how many of the larger releases that you mentioned would you expect could eclipse 100 million? And then, you know, from a Universus Beyond perspective, was there any shift into 24 from IP partnerships that you were expecting in 23? Thank you.
spk09: Sure. So last year we did six premiere sets per year, which is like large sets that go across formats. I think last year, five of our six premier sets eclipsed $100 million. I don't think we have a specific forecast for each of the premier sets this year, but we will have six sets this year. We think, you know, actually we'll have probably slightly less kind of secondary sets or secondary SKUs. associated with magic. And so we're projecting flat to slightly down for the brand. So I think you can do the math and say it's roughly about the number of equivalent sets that are hitting that $100 million bogey. As you think about Universes Beyond, last year we had our first what we would call premiere set for Universes Beyond. That was Magic Lord of the Rings. That did over $200 million in under six months. This year, we have some smaller Universes Beyond sets. The first one's going to be Fallout, which will come up in March. That won't be at the same scale or size, but will do better than what a typical Commander set would do. But starting in 2025, we're going to have two premier Universes Beyond sets as part of our mix. And we believe the brands that we'll be shipping in 2025, have the same kind of carrying power as the Lord of the Rings. The one that we've announced will be in the front half of the year, and that's Final Fantasy, which is just a juggernaut in role-playing games. We've announced partnerships with a host of other brands, Marvel being one of the last ones that we kind of talked about. There'll be multiple sets associated with that. So for 25 going forward, you should expect to see as part of our six premiere sets per year, two of them will be universes beyond branded, and we think we'll have a similar uplift to what we experienced with Lord of the Rings. And so, you know, that's underlaying a lot of our bullishness on the growth for Magic. Thank you so much.
spk11: Our next questions are from the line of Arpina Kocharian with UBS. Pleasure to see you with your questions.
spk01: Hi, thanks for taking my question. So EBITDA finished the year at around $700 million, and you expect around $250 of incremental cost base in 2024. But then you're probably annualizing cost base from 2023 with some kind of underlying decline in EBITDA. Could you just maybe bridge to the puts and takes of 2024 EBITDA guide for the year for us? Because there's also cost to those cost savings, as I understand, if you could just go through the puts and takes. And then I have a quick follow-up for Chris.
spk04: Got it. Sure. Very happy to do so. So, you've kind of named some of them. As we think about the build from where we stood in the 750, keep in mind that we have that one time, all those non-recurring charges come back. That is a benefit to us next year. That becomes a tailwind. Almost completely offsetting that tailwind, though, is the volume coming down, the revenue coming down. So, the one-time benefit is offset then by, by the volume kind of D-Lev impact. Overall, we have supply chain productivity that is going to be offsetting inflation. So when you think about the cost save, that's one piece of the cost save, supply chain productivity. The second big piece really is what's happening within our operating expenses. So when you think about the people cost as well as just broader managed expense savings, that becomes an adder-back for us as we think about 2024. And the last piece that is posited is just the overall mix of our business. So not only within WASI, where we have this continued mix into digital, but within the CP business as well, when we, again, took out those actions from a closeout standpoint, the volume that we're going to be moving through in 2024 is higher profit volume for us. So those are some of the big puts and takes. Really the big negative for us as we head into 24 is just what's happening on the revenue line and the impact that that's having.
spk01: Great. Thank you. And then, Chris, you had talked about $500 million of D&D business over a three-, four-year period. I was wondering if that's still the guidance for D&D. I know you addressed some of that earlier, but if you could just go over kind of the long-term growth prospects for that business in terms of sizing it for us, similar to how you guys communicated in October, Analyst Day, to kind of, I know you're not ready to update that guidance, but just sort of, is that $500 million still the right number to think about? Thanks.
spk09: Yeah, no worries. Arpina, by the way, I heard you have a new child. Congratulations.
spk01: I didn't feel like I had to turn to the baby. Thank you. I appreciate it.
spk09: We always appreciate it when people make customers. Indeed. I would say that guidance holds. The D&D brand and our games portfolio overall is trucking along at a similar pace as we expected. You know, that guidance was more of a 2027-ish timeframe. I think a little bit will depend on, you know, certain calendars associated with certain video games. And there's a certain amount of schedule slippage that you get with that. But generally speaking, we feel good about the trajectory of the brand. And as I mentioned in Eric's question, kind of like the three core pillars that underlie it.
spk01: Thank you very much.
spk11: Our next question is from the line of Megan Alexander with Morgan Stanley. Please proceed with your questions.
spk03: Hi, thanks very much, and thanks for all the detail. It's really helpful. You know, I was wondering, Gina, if maybe we could unpack the revenue guidance for consumer products just a bit more. You cited that four points from exiting the licensing. Maybe you can help us understand what's implied from an industry POS expectation. And I guess, is the comment that retail inventory is not a headwind or a tailwind, should we assume that you're just kind of shipping in line with POS?
spk04: Yeah, good question, Megan. And that's where I was going to lead you. Especially given where our inventory positions are sitting, our assumption that we're making is that our shipment is going to more closely align with POS. In fact, we actually started to see that happen towards the tail end of this year. So if you think about the guide, that gives you an indication of how we're thinking about the broader macro environment. So you can take those, call it roughly four points out for just the business exit. You're left with a down three to eight. In the down three scenario, that would be us over-delivering and gaining share and beating the market. Down eight is probably more similar of us moving in line with the market. But I think you've got the equation right of our shipments are going to more closely kind of align with POS.
spk03: Okay. And then could you maybe quantify the net cost savings that are embedded in the guide? I think per your slides, you're going to get to kind of $500 million of gross cost savings by the end of this year. You know, you've kind of said you haven't really seen any last year. So on that, call it net 250 if you reinvest 50%. What's embedded this year? And I know you talked about some cost inflation. Is that freight? Are you still seeing, you know, product inflation, whether it's things like resin? Can you just maybe quantify what is actually embedded in the guide?
spk04: Sure, absolutely. Okay. Let me start on that. Let's start on the inflation side first, and then we'll work our way back. So embedded in the guide is roughly an inflation rate of 3%. The single biggest inflation driver for us this year will be labor, labor within manufacturing and labor within the broader logistics network. We're also seeing some inflation within resins, your coin, and that's our single biggest kind of component that we're purchasing. We are seeing that inflate. And then fuels. So I think between those three pieces, you're roughly getting to 3%. We believe we have cost productivity that more than offsets all of that. So specifically within kind of our cost of goods, we will be a net margin contributor because of how that will play out. In terms of the total growth saves, cost saves, I think it's fair to say that roughly call it $200, $250 million will be net cost savings between this. supply chain cost productivity offsetting inflation, as well as all of the moves that we're making below the line within managed expenses, whether it be people cost coming down or just broader purchase expenses coming down.
spk03: Great. And just to clarify, that $200 to $250, that's a net tailwind versus $23, and that kind of should be independent of whether the top line is kind of above or below or at the high end or the low end of your guide? That's right. Yes, that's right. Okay. Thank you.
spk11: Our next question is from the line of Andrew Erkowitz with Jefferies. Please receive your questions.
spk12: Hey, thanks for taking my question. I guess I want to stick with Wizard of the Coast. If I think beyond 2024, what kind of cadence would we have in digital games? We saw two big games last year, no new ones this year as far as we know. What kind of cadence should we expect there on the digital game side? And any clue on the mix between mobile and traditional PC consoles?
spk09: Hey, Andrew. Yeah, I would say for starting in 26, we'll probably have one major new digital game that we'll publish. And then 27 to 30, it'll be anywhere between one to two, depending on how the schedules kind of shake out. From a licensing perspective, I think you should generally see our licensing business After taking maybe a little bit of a step back this year, just given the Baldur's Gate 3 launch bulge, take a little bit of step back this year, but then it will grow sequentially every year as we just expand the number of licensors and games like Monopoly Go continue to mature and become more profitable for us. We're constantly adding new licensors to the mix. So it's a little difficult to give you a lot of precise guidance about kind of like the mix between mobile or kind of like some of like the casino gambling that we also license to or PC and console. But generally speaking, our license mix tends to be more mobile and casino gambling than it would be PC and console because that's where we're going to tend to focus our publishing efforts. Got it.
spk12: That's very helpful. And then on the Universe is Beyond sets coming beyond 2024, is the goal there with Marvel and Final Fantasy to find new audiences, to kind of better monetize your current audience, or even maybe flipping it around a bit? You're great in competitive. I think you're very good in kind of social gaming, but that collector spot of kids just buying cars for fun. Where are you trying to really target with some of these Universe Beyond sets with Final Fantasy and Marvel?
spk09: Well, I think it's generally speaking all of the above. However, I think the special emphasis for Universe Beyond is new player growth. The Lord of the Rings was by far and away the most successful product at bringing in new players into the franchise that we've ever released. we would anticipate that would be the same or potentially even greater for IPs like Lord of the Rings or Marvel or some of the future things that we have in store. So, you know, it's a great way for us to kind of expand the base of users and grow kind of like future sets over time. Got it. Thank you. Very helpful.
spk11: Our next question is from the line of Jamie Katz. with Morningstar. Please proceed with your question.
spk02: Thanks. I'd be interested to hear how you guys feel you have completed the brand pruning process. Is that largely done? Is it still underway? I'm just trying to think about what other headwinds we might have in the future.
spk09: I would say, good morning, Jamie. I would say it's largely done. There might be one or two more, and we would announce those deals within the next month or two. And then I would say moving forward, you should think about us as net brand creators.
spk04: Yeah, my only add to it on the cleanup, I would say the same sentiment holds, like we're done with the cleanups. So as we head into 24, we're rebuilding. We're building now.
spk02: Okay. And then, Gina, I don't think it's been delineated what portion of the cost savings are coming out of cost of goods sold relative to SG&A. My suspicion is most of it's out of that SG&A line. But do you have that bifurcated in an easy way to digest? Thanks.
spk04: Yeah. Yeah, my very simple would say, yes, you're right. It's about half and half if I look at the big buckets. a little bit that we did in 23 on royalty expense, but it's really small change compared to the cost savings we're driving within supply chain and within the managed or operating expenses. So it's almost half and half. Okay, thanks.
spk11: Our next question is from the line of Jason Haas with Bank of America. Pleased to see you with your questions.
spk07: Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. I'm curious if you could say what POS was for you guys in 4Q. And then I'm also curious, it sounds like you're expecting the industry could be down as much as 8% in 2024, but then expect it gets back to, I think you said low single digit growth thereafter. So I'm just curious to hear your thoughts on why you think the industry will be down so much and then what needs to change to get it back to growth?
spk09: Yeah, hey, good morning, Jason. In Q4, we were down around 12% or 13% on our internal point of sale measurements. When you factor out some of the exited licenses that we didn't comp, it was more down around negative 9% in the quarter, which roughly tracks around what the industry did. We think the industry did between negative 9% and negative 10%. For the full fiscal year, we were down negative 10 to negative 11 based on our internal point of sale tracking. And X, those kind of exited brands, we were down about negative 6%, which again, roughly tracks with kind of what our feeling is for the industry. You know, in terms of our call for industry trends moving forward, You know, I think generally speaking, we think the prevailing trends that existed in the back half of 2023 are likely going to persist into at least the first half of 2024 and probably into the second half of 2024. You know, we still have a little bit of a correction from pre-COVID kind of toy share of wallet that we think we're experiencing in markets like the U.S., We do see growth in places like Latin America and Southeast Asia. And, you know, we generally are kind of thinking that once we get through 2024, we're largely past that kind of post-COVID correction. And we start getting back into a toy market, which... From our planning purposes, we're basically projecting to be around flat, and that based on our innovation and the marketing that we're putting together and just the general kind of fundamental health of the business that we're re-injecting into it, that we can grow at that level or likely ahead of that level and build some share, particularly in the categories we're focused on.
spk07: Got it. That's really helpful. And then a follow-up. I was curious if you could help size up how much Baldur's Gate 3 and Monopoly Go contributed in 4Q. I know you gave some call around it for 2024, but just curious, any more call on what those two contribute as we go through 2024 would be helpful.
spk04: As we move through 2024, yeah. For Monopoly Go in Q4, it was just the minimum guarantee that we booked in from a revenue standpoint. And Baldur's Gate had another healthy quarter. I think for the year in totality, Baldur's Gate was around $90 million of revenue. So now that you turn the corner into 2024, the front half of the year, you're still going to have the tail from Baldur's Gate 3. That's going to stay with us all year. Obviously not at the same extent that we saw during Q3 and Q4, but we'll still be selling units and making revenue and profit off of that product. For Monopoly Go, what gets interesting is that based on our forecast, based on how well the game is doing, as we get into the back half of the year, we believe we'll be able to start booking revenue and profit ahead of our minimum guarantee. Now, we don't get into the terms of the contracts and what that royalty rate is, but suffice it to say, you know, as we think about the comp that we're up against, Monopoly Go, in the back half, Monopoly Go is going to almost get there. Not quite get there, but almost get there and kind of offset the headwind that we have from Baldur's Gate.
spk07: Just a quick clarification. I think you said earlier that you're expecting, I think you said digital game licenses, I think it was. It's going to be flat year over year. So is that right that the full amount of Monopoly going to Baldur's Gate 3 in 2024 should roughly be equivalent to what we saw in 2023? Yes.
spk01: I think you're saying that right. Yes.
spk07: Okay, great.
spk11: Thanks, Jason.
spk01: Jason.
spk11: Our next question comes from the line of Linda Bolton-Weiser with DA Davidson. Please proceed with your questions.
spk06: Yes, hi. So I guess I took from your comments that you said that cash balance would be down in the end of 2024 versus 2023. So I take that to mean that operating cash flow minus capex minus dividends will be negative. Am I reading that correctly? And do you have a guidance number or range for operating cash flow like you usually give for 2024?
spk04: I mean, we haven't officially made a guidance, but it's going to be operating cash flow is going to be slightly down versus where we landed the year strictly because of the inventory benefit that we got. We captured that as part of our 23 cash flow. In terms of ending cash, It's slightly down. I mean, you could almost argue that ending cash is going to be relatively flat year over year, but, I mean, it is slightly down, and it's slightly down because we're stepping up our capital expense a little bit, and then we also have additional charges related to the announcements that we had in December that play in. But, no, we don't get to negative free cash.
spk06: So, can you help me understand the the change in cash taxes paid and also the change in outflow related to cash restructuring in 2024 versus 2023 the cash i'd have i'm going to have to follow up with you on the cash tax in terms of the the cost for restructuring we paid roughly i would say call it 70-ish million dollars uh in
spk04: as we move through 23 and as we move into 2024, that's going to be roughly call it a hundred million dollars.
spk06: Okay. That would be for cash restructuring things like severance and other cash costs. Correct. That's right. Okay. And then, you know, I know that you really want to protect and continue to pay the dividend, but one might argue that mattel's turnarounds really started when they cut the dividend because it gave them um you know a little bit of flexibility to work down the debt um you really didn't state any leverage targets for 2024 or 2025 you know your stock is trading as if the dividend is not safe so one might argue that it would really benefit shareholders to at least reduce the dividends so that you could work down the debt a little bit faster. Can you just respond to that idea?
spk04: I'm going to go back to our prepared comments. And both Chris and I remain, and our board remains supportive of our capital allocation strategy, which includes the dividend. And we believe the actions that we've taken both in 23 and 24 to free up cash support those capital allocation priorities. I hear your point on the D-Lev and getting to those targets faster. We're still committed to getting to those D-Lev targets. We think though that fixing the business also is gonna free up our ability to hit all of our cap allocation priorities.
spk06: And then just my next question is just more operational. I guess one of the things that kinda went wrong, I guess you could say, in 2023 is that the industry POS slowed a lot in the second half, or it wasn't what you would have thought. And that was the same for Mattel. So is there anything about 2024 that if the industry actually gets worse, you know, versus what you're projecting, is there any flexibility or levers that you can use to better reach your financial goals in 2024, even if the industry ends up being different than you thought?
spk09: Well, I would say our projection for the industry is probably on the more cautious side than what most independent analysts or other toy companies would have. So I think we're going in with a cautious outlook. I also think we have a lot of tools in our quiver in terms of cash liquidity. You know, we've got billion, billion eight of cash liquidity and options should we have to get whether a down quarter or two that is worse than what we're predicting. And, you know, our new management team, I think, is showing quite an adeptness at cost management and supply chain management. So there are levers that we have to pull. We feel quite confident in our ability to execute against our capital allocation priorities, which are investing in the business for long-term growth, continuing to give money back to shareholders via our dividend, and in achieving our long-term deleverage targets, which is 2.5 or less.
spk06: Okay, thank you. Good luck with everything.
spk11: Thanks, Linda. Thank you. Our final question is from the line of Steven Lasek with Goldman Sachs. Please receive your questions.
spk00: Hey, great. Good morning. One on longer-term margins and one on CapEx. Maybe first for Gina on margins, just given the new cost efficiency targets, could you update us on your view for what you think the medium to long-term margin opportunity in consumer products is and maybe the path to get there beyond the four to six you guided in 2024? And then just on CapEx, you called out the 225 in CapEx for this year. Could you just unpack a little bit more in terms of what that's being invested into and maybe what you think the long-term outlook for CapEx is on an annualized basis beyond some of the initial programs? Thank you.
spk04: Got it. Okay. Good question, Stephen. So on margins, you know, overall for the company, we remain committed to getting to that 20% midterm target that I think we put out there at our last investor day. As you break down the CP number, you know, we have a lot of momentum on the margin side as we head into this year. I believe as we turn into 25 and 26, we're continuing to to refine what's happening within our supply chain, what's happening within our cost structure, so that will provide some uplift on the margin. But the single biggest thing that's going to help us keep moving to the 10s, to the teens and beyond on toy is really volume. In getting back to growth, putting innovation in market that is actually growing our business. That leverage benefit will have the single biggest impact on that margin line. So I think we have a good line of sight to the margin targets that we put out there for this year. For next, we are anticipating that our margin is going to grow again. The speed with which we move up that scale will really be dependent on how fast we can get over the growth humps. In terms of CapEx, you know, that step up that we're seeing this year really is being driven by our investment in digital games. If you think about that breakdown of $225 million, there is, you know, roughly half of it goes into our Wizards business. Another, I would say, you know, half of that half then is going back into our toy business with the remaining piece that's going into our broad infrastructures. We're continuing to build capabilities both within just kind of the underpinning of the organization when you think about IT and systems, as well as within our broader supply chain.
spk09: Yeah, and just for strategic context, Stephen, and thanks, by the way, for being the anchorman on the questions for us. You know, our investments in digital and digital gaming, they're foundational to the future of the company. It's something we've been investing in for the last seven years. It's something that I think you should anticipate that we will at least maintain, if not grow, over the next three to five years. And it's going to be a material source of value creation, particularly in the game side of our business moving forward. I think we already see that it can work and work fantastically well with what we've been doing with licensing partners, particularly with Monopoly Go and Baldur's Gate 3 last year. And, you know, great acquisitions like we made with D&D Beyond. And I think you're going to see more and more value creation as we go through 24, 25, and into 26. Great. Thank you both. Thanks.
spk11: Thank you. Thank you. This will conclude our question and answer session. It also concludes today's conference. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect your lines at this time and have a wonderful day.
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