Honeywell International Inc.

Q3 2019 Earnings Conference Call

10/17/2019

spk01: Good day everyone. Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to Honeywell's third quarter earnings conference call. At this time, all participants have been placed in a listen-only mode and the floor will be open for your questions following the presentation. If you would like to ask a question at that time, please press star 1 on your touchtone phone. If at any point your question has been answered, you may remove yourself from the queue by pressing star 2. Lastly, if you should require operator assistance, please press star 0. As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded. I would now like to introduce your host for today's conference, Mark Binza, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
spk10: Thank you, Epideet. Good morning and welcome to Honeywell's third quarter 2019 earnings conference call. With me here today are Chairman and CEO Darius Adamchik and Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer Greg Lewis. This call and webcast, including any non-GAAP reconciliations, are available on our website at .honeywell.com forward slash investor. Note that elements of this presentation contain forward-looking statements that are based on our best view of the world and of our businesses as we see them today. Those elements can change and we ask that you interpret them in that light. We identify the principal risks and uncertainties that may affect our performance in our annual report on Form 10K and other SEC filings. For this call, references to adjusted earnings per share, adjusted free cash flow and free cash flow conversion, and effective tax rates exclude the impacts from separation costs related to the two spinoffs of our homes and transportation systems businesses in 2018, as well as pension -to-market adjustments and U.S. tax legislation, except were otherwise noted. Comparisons are to the prior year period unless otherwise noted. This morning, we will review our financial results for the third quarter of 2019. Here are our guidance for the fourth quarter, provide an update to our full year 2019 outlook, and share some preliminary thoughts on 2020 dynamics. As always, we'll leave time for your questions at the end. And with that, I'd like to turn the call over to Chairman and CEO, Darius Adamczyk.
spk05: Thank you, Mark, and good morning, everyone. Let's begin on slide two. This has been a very exciting quarter for Honeywell, capped off by another strong financial performance and several important recent leadership changes. I have asked Tim Mahoney, who has been the President and CEO of our aerospace segment for the past 10 years, to serve as our Senior Vice President of Enterprise Transformation. In that role, Tim will oversee Honeywell Digital, our global cross-functional digitization initiative that is driving improvements in customer service and efficiency. Tim's outstanding leadership has enabled aerospace to deliver exceptional results. Additionally, within Aero, Tim led the creation of Honeywell's best digital environment. I'm looking forward to leveraging that experience and having his expertise in this crucial role as we continue to evolve as a software industrial company. Taking over for Tim as the leader of aerospace is Mike Madsen, who previously led our aerospace integrated supply chain. Mike has also served as the President of our defense and space business and has held leadership roles within our air transport and regional business. Mike began his career at Honeywell. This had three decades of leadership experience here. We are fortunate to have someone of Mike's extensive background at the helm of our space. These appointments are effective immediately, but Mike and Tim will, of course, work closely together throughout the fourth quarter to ensure a smooth transition. In addition, Jeff Kimball has been named Senior Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer, who is overseeing our sales and marketing organizations to drive profitable organic growth. Jeff joins us from McKinsey, who is a partner in the transformation practice. Last, Deborah Flit has joined our board of directors as an independent director. Deborah is the CEO of Los Angeles World Airports, where she's overseeing the complete modernization of LAX, including championing the use of IoT technologies. Her deep knowledge of and experience with critical infrastructure, connected buildings, and advanced security solutions will be invaluable to the board and our ongoing transformation. We have the right leadership team in place, a deep bench of -and-coming leaders, and an engaged and experienced board of directors that will help us continue to deliver the results you have come to expect from Honeywell. Turning to slide three, let's discuss a few of our recent highlights and wins. Through our Honeywell-connected enterprise, we launched Honeywell Forge Cybersecurity, aimed at helping customers identify and act on cyber-related incidents. We once again had double-digit growth in total connected software sales, as well as continued growth in connected orders during the quarter. We announced that Honeywell was appointed by Kuwait and integrated petroleum industries to provide technology and production systems to the El Zor Refinery, which will be the largest integrated refinery and petrochemical plant ever constructed in Kuwait. In addition, Honeywell was ranked 13th on Forbes 2019 World's Most Reputable Companies for Corporate Responsibility. Our position on this list is a testament to all we have done and continue to do to be strong advocates for the environment, our diverse employee base, and our communities. Now on to slide four, in the third quarter, we continue to drive strong financial results, delivering adjusted earnings per share of $2.08, six cents above the high end of our guidance range. We grew organic sales by 3%, driven by the strength across aerospace, as well as in our process automation and building technologies businesses. Aerospace generated double-digit organic sales growth for the fifth straight quarter, driven by our strong positions on key platforms, robust defense portfolio, and ongoing demand for aftermarket services. Our long cycle backlog was up approximately 8% year over year, driven by defense and space and UOP bookings, as well as the strong warehouse automation orders and HPS projects orders, which each increased over 20% in the quarter, positioning us well for the remainder of the year and into 2020. Our organic growth, combined with the benefits of the portfolio enhancements we have made in 2018 and our operational excellence initiatives, drove segment margin expansion of 180 basis points, with segment margin again exceeding 21% this quarter. Excluding the favorable margin impact from the spinoff, segment margin expanded 80 basis points, which was 40 points above the high end of our guidance. During the quarter, we generated $1.3 billion adjusted free cash flow. We remain focused on our working capital management at every level of the organization and expect to deliver on our cash flow commitment for the full year. As we've done throughout the year, we continue to execute our disciplined capital deployment strategy. During the quarter, we repurchased $1 billion of Honeywell shares, and now it's a 10% increase in our dividend. Our tenth consecutive double digit increase. We also closed three Honeywell venture investments and completed the acquisition of two track flight systems, a leader in autopilots for the experimental light sport and certified aircraft. In the first nine months of 2019, we have deployed $5.5 billion to share repurchases, dividends, and acquisitions. Additionally, during the quarter, we issued 2.7 billion of senior notes to refine October debt maturities at attractive interest rates, further strengthening our balance sheet. I am very pleased with our performance this year. I'm confident the team will continue to execute and deliver our full year plan. With that, I'll turn the call over to Greg. We'll discuss our third quarter results in more detail and provide our updated full year 2019 guidance.
spk09: Thank you, Darius, and good morning, everyone. Let's begin on slide five. We posted another strong performance in the third quarter, building on the great first half in 2019. Aerospace had another double digit organic growth quarter. Sales were strong across process solutions, UOP's licensing and refining catalyst businesses, and building products. Honeywell Connected Enterprise drove double digit growth and connected software. SPS contracted during the quarter, but the turnaround in productivity products is progressing, and the large order bookings we anticipated and telegraded have begun to materialize as evidenced by the over 20% growth in orders during the quarter. The impact of the spin-offs of Garrett and Residio in 2018, both lower margin businesses at the time of the spin, contributed 100 basis points of segment margin expansion this quarter. We will lack the favorable impact of these actions in the fourth quarter. The remaining 80 basis points of this quarter's expansion was the result of our business performance in aerospace, building technologies, and performance materials and technologies, partially offset by the -over-year margin decline and safety and productivity solutions that we had signaled previously. Adjusted earnings per share were $2.08, up 9% excluding the spin-off impact. Adjusted earnings per share excludes a $114 million tax adjustment associated with holding taxes in connection with the fourth quarter of 2017 U.S. tax legislation charge. With that benefit, reported earnings per share in the quarter was $2.23. I'll talk in more detail about EPS on the next slide. Adjusted free cash flow in the quarter was $1.3 billion with conversion of 85%. Our total adjusted free cash flow for the first nine months was $4 billion, up from $3.9 billion excluding the spins in the first nine months of 2018. Cash conversion for the year has been impacted by the timing in our projects businesses primarily in IntelliGrated and PMT. Overall, a very good performance for the third quarter and above both our margin expansion and our EPS guidance regions. I'm now moving to slide six and the adjusted earnings per share bridge from the third quarter of 2018. Consistent with last quarter, the majority of our earnings growth excluding the spins came through segment profit improvement, 14 cents. That was driven by organic sales growth, continued productivity improvements realized through our operational excellence initiatives and savings from previously funded repositioning projects. Our share repurchase program with which we have deployed $3.7 billion year to date has resulted in a 3% reduction in share count from last year and provided 7 cents of earnings improvement. Our adjusted effective tax rate was 22% consistent with last third quarter and the outlook we previously provided. Below the line items were a 3 cent headwind this quarter compared to last year, primarily due to lower pension income as a result of the pension de-risking actions we took in 2018 and the higher funding of new repositioning projects. We funded a substantial amount of high return projects, more than $70 million in the quarter which will support our continued productivity focus, transformation and supply chain initiatives and will also help drive segment margin expansion and earnings growth in a range of macroeconomic environments. Overall, third quarter adjusted EPS was 6 cents above the high end of the guidance we provided in the second quarter. Our better than anticipated performance was primarily from stronger segment profit and arrow, SPS as well acceleration of stranded cost removal. Below the line expenses were about 3 cents lower than we had expected, partially due to benefits from foreign exchange. In total, EPS grew 9% this quarter, another great result adding to our already strong start to the year. Now let's turn to slide seven and discuss the segment performance. Starting with aerospace, sales were up 10% on an organic basis continuing an outstanding year for the business. Commercial aftermarket grew 6% organically with strong demand across both air transport and the business aviation. Defense in space grew 17% organically led by global demand for guidance and navigation systems as well as increased aftermarket volumes on key U.S. Department of Defense programs. Backlog for defense in space is up nearly 20% more than two thirds of orders with delivery through 2020 are booked giving us confidence the business is poised for continued growth next year. In commercial OE sales were up 7% organically driven by growth in air transport shipments and continued strength across business jet platforms. We saw increased deliveries across major OE business aviation platforms and high demand for components in air transport. As we discussed previously, we remain aligned to Boeing's stated production schedule for the 737 MAX and will continue to monitor the situation closely but at this point we have not seen and do not anticipate a significant impact to Honeywell in 2019. Commercial aftermarket sales growth was driven by demand across both air transport and business aviation led by growth in retrofit, modifications and upgrades. In addition, demand for Honeywell forged for aircraft drove double-digit organic sales growth. Aerospace segment margins expanded 350 basis points driven by commercial excellence, productivity net of inflation and margin accretion from the spin of transportation systems. The spin contributed approximately 100 basis points to aerospace's total margin expansion. As a reminder, this is the last quarter we'll have the benefit of spin accretion in aero. We expect aerospace strong organic sales growth and segment margin expansion to continue into the fourth quarter. In Honeywell building technology, sales were up 3% organically, primarily driven by ongoing strength in commercial fire products in the US, double-digit growth across our suite of building management products, which was aided by improved supply chain execution and strong demand for our Tritium connected software platform. Notably in Europe, the quarter finished stronger than expected after seeing a soft market in the months, particularly in Germany. Building solutions was flat in the quarter with projects growth across both the Americas region and the airport vertical, which were offset by declines in the energy business. HBT segment margins expanded 390 basis points in the third quarter, driven by the favorable impact from the spin-off of homes business. As a reminder, this was the last quarter we'll have the full benefit of the home spin accretion given that the spin occurred at the end of October 2018. Segment margins excluding the impact from the spin accretion were up 10 basis points this quarter and have continued to show improvement quarter to quarter since the beginning of 2019. Overall, it was another good quarter from the HBT team. Before moving on, I'd like to remind everyone that the building technologies leadership team is hosting an investor showcase event November 20th through the 21st at our headquarters in Atlanta, Georgia. Vimal and his team are going to provide a deep dive into each of the businesses and highlight his strategy and the technology offerings we bring to the market. I encourage you to listen to the webcast online. In performance materials and technologies, sales were up 3% on an organic basis. Process solution sales were up 7% organically, driven by strength across the entire automation portfolio. We saw growth in maintenance and migration services, gas products, and automation projects and software. Orders and backlog across PMT were both up high single digits with particular strength in the projects businesses, notably seeing some movement in global mega projects, specifically in Russia and China, giving us confidence in the momentum of this business. In UOP, sales were flat organically with growth in refining catalysts and licensing offset by declines in gas processing due to fewer domestic cryo unit sales given a softer midstream gas processing market in the U.S. We again saw strong double digit orders and backlog growth in UOP with strength in equipment and petrochemical catalysts positioning us well for growth going forward. Organic sales in advanced materials were down 2%, driven by lower volumes and pricing in flooring products due to the impact of illegal HFC imports into Europe and weaker end market demand in specialty products. We're actively working in partnership with private industry, EU regulators, and EU member countries to address the harmful illegal HFC imports. While these efforts are underway, we will continue to see pressure on HFC pricing and volume. Overall, PMT segment margins expanded by 60 basis points in the quarter, driven by direct material productivity, commercial excellence, and organic growth. Finally, in safety and productivity solutions, sales were down 8% on an organic basis due to distributor de-stocking and fewer large project rollouts in productivity products and the impact of major systems project timing and integrated. Segment margins contracted 320 basis points for the quarter, driven by lower sales volumes, which while down year over year was 110 basis points better sequentially than the second quarter. The management team has taken appropriate cost actions to address the volume de-leveraging, mitigating some of the softness this year. They will continue to realign the cost structure in the fourth quarter as we work through the revenue challenges. In productivity products, we continue to make progress in the commercial turnaround. Channel inventory levels are burning down as expected and are on a trajectory to reach normalized levels by the end of 2019. In our integrated warehouse automation businesses, as we've previously mentioned, a large portion is project based, which results in uneven growth patterns. Recent market data from SEMA's September semi-annual release highlighted this order contraction in the first half across the material handling market. They're experiencing high double digit, 29% order contraction with 2% shipment growth. Our sales were down double digits this quarter as a result of the difficult comps and the timing of major systems shifting to the right. The pipeline of major systems orders we highlighted previously have started to converge with orders at more than 20% year over year in the third quarter. The bulk of the sales stemming from these orders will start to show up in 2020. Intelligrate's aftermarket service business continues to benefit from our large and growing install base, again having a strong double digit growth from ongoing demand for life cycle support and services. Moving to safety, organic sales for the quarter were flat as continued demand for our gas detection products was offset by decreased volumes of general safety and personal protective equipment. So overall for the portfolio, a strong performance for the third quarter. With that, let's turn to slide 8 to discuss our fourth quarter outlook and the updated full year 2019 guidance. We've delivered strong results in the first nine months of 2019 with higher segment profit and earnings per share in the third quarter than initially anticipated and we're seeing continued strength in several key markets. However, we remain somewhat cautious in our outlook given the continued uncertainty in the macro environment and the full year continues to solidly on track. We expect organic growth in the fourth quarter in the range of 2 to 4%, which will be driven by continued strength in aerospace and defense coupled with ongoing demand in building products and process automation supported by a healthy backlog and UOP and continued growth and connected software through Honeywell Connected Enterprise. We expect continued segment profit and segment margin growth with year over year improvement of 20 to 50 basis points, excluding the impact of the 2018 spins, resulting in segment margins in the range of 20.7 to 21% in the fourth quarter. Let's look at the segment outlook in a little bit more detail. In aerospace, we continue to see strong demand in both business aviation and in U.S. defense supported by robust orders growth and firm backlogs for orders with delivery into 2020. We will see tougher comps in business aviation OE and defense given the double digit organic sales growth in the fourth quarter of 2018, so we expect the growth to moderate slightly. In building technologies, we expect continued strength in commercial fire products driven by demand of the Americas, continued strength in software and increased project growth in high growth regions. In performance materials and technologies, we expect to see continued growth in products and services and process automation and we expect healthy demand in UOP from the strong backlog, particularly in the equipment business. The headwinds in the advanced materials business from illegal imports of HFCs will persist into the fourth quarter. Finally, in SPS, we continue to expect distributor destocking and productivity products to remain a headwind for the remainder of 2019 from both the sales and segment margin perspective. We expect another very strong quarter for integrated orders, but sales will again be unfavorably impacted by the tougher comps and the timing of those major systems rollouts. The net below the line impact, which is the difference between segment profit and income before tax, is expected to be approximately $155 million in the fourth quarter as we continue to fund repositioning pipeline. We expect the adjusted effective tax rate to be between 20 and 21 percent in the fourth quarter and the average share count to be approximately 723 million shares. So now let's move on to slide nine and we could talk about our updated full year guidance. On this slide you can see the progression of our guidance throughout the year. We've delivered strong results each quarter, continued to expand margins and driven adjusted earnings per share growth of approximately 10 percent year over year despite some deceleration in organic growth as the macro environment has become increasingly less stable in the second half. Based on our -to-date results, we're again raising the end of our adjusted earnings per share guidance by 15 cents. We're narrowing our reported sales range to 36.7 to 36.9 billion with organic sales growth expected to be in the range of four to five percent, reflecting a tougher second half, but above the midpoint of our original sales guidance this year. We're raising the low end of our segment margin guidance by 20 basis points to a new range of 20.9 to 21.0, reflecting the progress we continue to make in driving profitable growth. We're also reaffirming our adjusted free cash flow guidance to be in the range of 5.7 to 6 billion dollars as we remain focused on improving working capital and driving cash throughout all Honeywell businesses. Our higher full year adjusted earnings per share guidance of 8.10 to 8.15 represents earnings growth of approximately 10 percent excluding the impact of the spins. This is an increase of eight cents at the midpoint from our most recent full year guidance, passing through the third quarter beat of eight cents as compared to the midpoint of our third quarter guidance range. This latest update, an additional 15 cent low end raise takes us to a 30 cent raise in EPS from the low end of our original guidance range of seven dollars and eighty cents to eight dollars and ten cents at the beginning of the year, demonstrating the strong progression throughout 2019. We continue to be confident in our ability to execute even in difficult environments and these updates reflect that. We have planned for and executed mitigations against externalities such as tariffs. We've taken appropriate and targeted cost actions to reduce cost in areas where we believe the most exposure to macro instability and market weaknesses lie. As a result, the momentum we built throughout the third quarter and a strong finish in Q4 will carry through for an excellent performance this year. With that, let's turn to slide 10 and discuss some of what we're seeing as we head into 2020. As we head into next year, we're seeing indicators of strength in many of our key end markets, but economic instability remains. It's clear the growth outlook for the overall economy will not be as robust as it has been in 2018 and 2019. We do see continued demand growth in key industries though where we have strong positions. Commercial aftermarket activity will be driven by increases in flight hours, though at a slower pace. Solid airlines demand, ramping of platforms that recently entered into service, and continued stable defense budgets. These drivers across end markets and arrow, these drivers across end markets position arrow well for good growth in 2020, albeit moderately, at more moderate levels. Our continued focus on productivity, commercial excellence, and our transformation initiatives gives us confidence to sustain our margin improvement path, though likely at a slower pace than 2019 and arrow. Non-residential construction growth with slight moderation should enable continued demand for building technologies, products, and services, and the progress Vimal and team are making in operational excellence and new product introductions should provide the opportunity for accelerated margin expansion, continuing the positive trend that we've seen in HPT through 2019. In PMT, we expect process automation to continue to grow, and we've had continued strong orders and backlog growth for UOP, which positions us well going into next year. Macro data suggesting that the softer market in the U.S. midstream oil and gas continues, which will affect the gas processing business. The negative impact in advanced materials from illegal imports of HFCs into Europe while being proactively addressed will likely continue into 2020. We do expect that a growing set of actions that the European Union is beginning to deploy relative to enforcements, fines, and seizures should result in a slowdown and ultimately the elimination of the illegal import of refrigerants into the region. In SPS, productivity products is progressing on its turnaround, and we expect to return to growth and margin expansion during 2020. The second half build a backlog with major systems projects awards for Intelligrated's warehouse automation solutions will provide a tailwind to accelerate growth into next year. And across end markets, we expect Honeywell Connected Enterprise to continue to drive double-digit connected software growth as we see strong initial demand for our Honeywell Forge offerings and will continue to launch updates for Forge throughout 2020. In summary, we're well positioned in key verticals and end markets with ongoing operational excellence initiatives across all businesses to drive productivity and expansion. We have a robust playbook with multiple levers to protect profit in the event of a market slowdown and significant balance sheet flexibility to generate strong returns through share repurchases and M&A. Our three transformation initiatives, the Connected Enterprise, Integrated Supply Chain, and Honeywell Digital will continue to provide catalysts for profitable growth. So while 2020 is shaping up to be a challenging year, we're confident in our ability to continue to deliver. As we did last year, we will provide more detailed guidance once we close out the full year of 2019. With that, I'd like to turn the call back over to Darius who will wrap up on slide 11.
spk05: Thanks, Greg. Overall, we are pleased with and encouraged by the performance from our businesses in the first three quarters of 2019. We continue to execute our commitments to share owners, are generating strong organic growth in many end markets, and have many ways to further expand margins and grow earnings. We continue to invest in our businesses' growth initiatives and deploy capital to generate high returns. Our track record of execution continues and we're making progress in our business transformation initiatives, including Honeywell Connected Enterprise, Honeywell Digital, and Supply Chain Transformation. We still have a lot of work to do these initiatives, but I am pleased with the early progress and the significant opportunities they provide for Honeywell. With that, Mark, let's move to Q&A.
spk10: Thank you, Darius. Darius and Greg are now available to answer your questions. Ebony, please open the line for Q&A.
spk01: Thank you. The floor is now open for questions. At this time, if you have a question or comment, please press star one on your touchtone phone. If at any point your question has been answered, you may remove yourself from the queue by pressing star two. We ask that when you pose your question, please pick up your handset. Thank you, everyone. Our first question is coming from Sheila Kayaglu with Jeffreys. Please go ahead.
spk04: Hi, good morning, everyone, and thank you for the time. Darius, maybe for you on aerospace, can you talk about this business a little bit, how you're thinking about it as part of Honeywell longer term? Does it get bigger or maybe even smaller? I ask this because the management changed clearly, but I look at five quarters of double-digit organic growth and operating margins close to 27 percent, and I ask myself, is this as good as it gets? So maybe if you could just touch upon that for a second.
spk05: Well, yeah, I think it's pretty good. I mean, anytime you get double-digit growth and the kind of margins, it's terrific, but we don't think that that kind of growth is far from over. You know, maybe certainly we're in a very favorable economic conditions, but as we kind of look into 2020, you know, we continue to be bullish on this business. You know, the management change really has nothing to do with the market conditions. I mean, I think frankly, Tim has a core skill set that's very unique to what we're trying to accomplish in Honeywell Digital. We're trying to template what was done in aerospace because they're substantially more advanced than the rest of Honeywell. You know, Tim expressed a desire, and I fully agreed and encouraged him to take on a new role to wrap up kind of his career, and Mike Matson has been a terrific leader for decades in Honeywell, so I think that this is kind of a natural transition. But I wouldn't read into the management changes, has anything to do with aerospace market conditions. You know, when I point to figures such as 60 percent of our orders are already backlogged through 2020, I think flight hours are going to continue. Our aftermarket business is strong. There's a lot of BGA platforms that are ongoing. Production rates are strong. You know, hopefully we'll see the 737 MAX return to higher productions rates and back to service. So I don't see any kind of a doom and gloom scenario for the aerospace segment for the foreseeable futures. As a matter of fact, I'm quite bullish on it.
spk04: Thank you very much. And no, I didn't imply that about Tim. I think Mike and Tim were probably good partners. And then just upon the defense business, do you see that slowing down into 2020? You've mentioned before that you're trying to sell out for all of 2020, kind of how you think about the growth profile of 40 percent of arrow.
spk05: I mean, yeah, I think the tough, you know, the comps are going to get obviously tougher because you've had double digit growth for, you know, for five consecutive quarters. But, you know, I don't think that there's I'm anticipating any kind of a crash or negative growth. We're still expecting to grow next year. That's the expectations. Those are our early plans. We're going to provide you more detail in early 2020. But overall, the business continues to have levers for growth and also for continued margin expansion, because I think something that gets dramatically understated is our focus on productivity, which you saw in our margin profile this quarter, which is continually restructuring, driving Honeywell Digital, ISC transformation, the power of one on the commercial and fixed cost side. And you see that coming through in numbers. So no matter what the market conditions are, that's part of the Honeywell placement.
spk04: Thank
spk05: you. Sure, you're welcome.
spk01: We will take our next question from Scott Davis with Mellius Research. Please go ahead.
spk11: Good morning, guys. Morning, Scott. One of the things you guys just don't mind going around the world a little bit and give us a little granularity and what you're seeing and, you know, specifically China, I guess, and then, Western Europe, maybe even Brazil, Mexico, etc.
spk05: Sure. I mean, I think overall, I, you know, despite some of the negativity in the news, we actually saw pretty good growth, both from a revenue and orders perspective. You know, by far, China had the best quarter of the year, I think mid single digit in terms of revenue growth, strong double digit orders growth, bookings of double digits. So actually had a very, very good quarter in China. Long cycle businesses perform extraordinarily well. And it was a good quarter. Despite what we read in Europe, Honeywell had a very strong quarter in Europe as well. I mean, up, you know, mid single digits, strong growth across the board. Probably the only exception was Italy, we had a little bit of a tougher, but overall, Europe was strong. Black Ham actually had a pretty good quarter as well. They were up, think about kind of mid single digit growth. And again, some of the challenge economies there, it was, it was a bit, it was a pleasant surprise, based on how we're doing. Russia actually did well, Middle East did well. You know, a little bit of the soft spot was India, which was a bit unusual for some Q3. But we're still expecting in India, double digit growth for the year. So, you know, I'm not particularly alarmed by the one and then, you know, US obviously continues to be strong. So overall, both as I look at revenues and more importantly, orders, which is what positions us for 2020, was actually a pretty strong story. And one that was very encouraging.
spk11: Good to hear and just a completely different question. I think Scott, I think you're going to follow up, but just be, what does the customer adoption of Forge look like? And in the context of, you know, is it kind of trialing and saying, we'll give this a try for a year? Is it more longer term contracts? Is there something in the middle? Is there some sort of standardized agreement that's starting to emerge as you get deeper into this?
spk05: Yeah, I think Scott, that that varies based on the franchise. I mean, you know, for some of the connected are further ahead than others. You know, for example, in Q3, we had connected buildings and the cybersecurity leading in terms of strong double digit growth, some of them a little further behind. We have more mature offerings, I would say, in cyber, in the aircraft segment, the building segment, some of them are still in the development stage. So some of them are, you know, that's typically how you start in an engagement with a customer, you kind of do a proof of concept, the customer is happy that proof of concept moves on to her assignment. So we are some that are in a broader rollout stage, and some that are in a proof of concept stage. As an example of our success, we've had a major player in the Middle East do a proof of concept for us, which was highly successful. And that same player is now rolling out our Forge solutions to the entire oil and gas infrastructure, which will be worth millions of annual dollars per year. So I think it just depends which one we're talking about. But I think overall, Forge was still in early innings, and we're just launching the various Forge offerings.
spk11: Well,
spk05: good luck here.
spk11: Thank you, guys. Thank you. Thanks.
spk01: Moving next, we'll go to Steve Tuso with JP Morgan. Please go ahead.
spk07: Hey, guys. Good morning.
spk00: Good morning,
spk07: Steve. Can you just first walk through anything in the model for fourth quarter with regards to the segments that you'd want to highlight? I mean, you know, SPS is obviously one that I think would be helpful to get a little bit more kind of pointed guidance around, whether it's organic growth or, you know, or profits and any of the other businesses that, you know, we may see variability outside of just kind of normal seasonality and comps.
spk09: Yeah. So I think you're going to see something, you know, pretty consistent with what we've just done in the third quarter. You know, obviously, there's variability ranges around all of them. But, you know, as I described, I think Errol is going to continue to lead the pack from a growth perspective. And I think we're going to see, you know, mid single digit kind of growth, you know, low to mid single digit kind of growth and PMT and HPT. And I would expect to see SPS, you know, down single digits again in the fourth quarter. And, you know, on the orders perspective, as we talked about in the prepared comments, you know, we had a great, integrated quarter, 20% plus, you know, growth in orders. And we've been talking about those major systems projects coming in. We expect more of that in the fourth quarter. And that, you know, that ought to help us, you know, get set for next year. And then, you know, with the, you know, from a margin expansion perspective, you know, I think you're going to see the, obviously, the removal of the spin comparison is going to change the overall reported numbers. But I would expect to see, you know, margin ranges that are going to look fairly similar from, you know, third into the fourth quarter, broadly speaking. It's the same, it's the same flavor. I don't expect, I don't expect like a big divergence, you know, from one quarter to the next in any particular business.
spk07: Is 15% margin still a credible number at SP&S? And, you know, if you don't see progress there over the next kind of 12 months, you know, what kind of actions can you take?
spk09: Yeah, I think 15% is still a credible margin rate to build back from, you know, as we enter into 2020. And again, if you look at productivity products as an example, it's essentially kind of flattened out. So, you know, we're showing organic declines, but the absolute value of the revenues has really kind of flattened out over the last few quarters. And so, and as we talked about in the channel, that inventory level is going to come down to a normalized level in 4Q. So as that begins to accelerate, and as we continue to get additional growth in the aftermarket side and telegraded, I absolutely expect to see margins continue to bounce back and expand into 2020. Yeah, I just wanted to
spk05: add a couple things to that. One is, I think, you know, although maybe at a high level, obviously we'd like to print better results on SPS, but in terms of productivity products, we, you know, we're executing what we should be executing. The inventory levels are dropping, and we know exactly what they are, and they drop double-digit context in Q3. You know, we see our sales out data improving. We see better activity, commercial activity on our tier one wins. So, you know, it's still not resulting in the, you know, financial results we'd hope to see, but the progress from Q over Q is good. We've also enhanced some of the talent in that business, and we've had some new people join. So I would say that for productivity products, we're very much on track. You know, and telegraded, which is maybe the other part of the story, you know, I think as we discussed at the end of Q2, we got exactly the orders we expected to get, 24% growth in telegraded over a year. They came in late. They came in late in September, you know, which are aggrivously when they come that late, and it's still a projects kind of business. You know, it takes at least a couple of months to convert orders, at least to begin to convert orders into revenues. So probably won't see more of that until we get to, you know, next 2020, but the other expectation I want to highlight is we're expecting another robust booking quarter in Intelligrated in Q4 this year. So I think we're, I'm not, I'm not worried at all about what's going on in Intelligrated. I think the market has been challenged through the first half of the year. When you look at data points from SEMA and some of our industry competitors, I think we're very much in line or even better than some of them. So I'm not, I think we're actually...
spk07: One last click on for you just on aerospace. Can you just talk about what the combination of any kind of potential headwinds from upgrades from this year, combined with kind of the Honeywell specific growth initiatives, whether it's connected or anything like that? Is that a, neutral to next year, year over year? Is that a, still a positive, a slight negative? Can you just discuss the kind of dynamics between those two moving parts?
spk05: Yeah, yeah, I'm sure. I think, I think short story is kind of neutral. I think what we get into next year is probably a little bit tougher comps giving the double digit growth rate. So I think that that's, you know, realistic. You know, puts in minuses. I mean, it's the 737 max. We'd just fail, be back in service next year. So, you know, that will get a little bit more OE. Probably some of the older aircraft will not be flying. So we'll probably have a little bit more of the aftermarket stream. I think with business aviation will continue to be robust. We're very bullish on defense in space, seeing good growth in space and the helicopter markets again. You know, I think probably the toughest things on a year over year basis will be the comps. The comps will be tougher. But I'm not sure there's any kind of major one timers that I think would prevail. You know, in terms of the RMUs and so on, we're continuing to invest in our NPD engine on that. That's been very successful for us. And obviously, Ford's will grow. So that's, those are kind of the major puts and takes.
spk07: Great. Thanks a lot.
spk05: Thank you.
spk01: Our next question will come from Jeff Spray with Vertical Research Partners. Please go ahead.
spk03: Yes. Thank you. Good morning, everybody.
spk05: Morning, Jeff.
spk03: Hey, just a couple things from me. First, could you just elaborate a little bit on what's going on with the net below the line items? What's driving the change from your prior outlook to the current outlook restructuring and other business? I
spk09: mean, it's primarily the, you know, the due to with foreign currency and, you know, there's still a number of other things below the line. So basically, the $50 million Delta is 30 million of our actual three Q and a $20 million, you know, roundabout lower number in the fourth quarter. Again, no, there's no huge needle mover in there. And there's going to be a range around that number too. I mean, we say about 155, but that'll move around, you know, a little bit as well.
spk03: And there's some other stuff moving around, like other income and pension and the like. What's the actual restructuring outlook for Q4?
spk09: Yeah, we've got a sizable capacity. If you remember, I think we booked something like $300 million of restructuring in 2018 in the fourth quarter. And we've got, you know, capacity loaded in there for something similar. We're working our pipeline. And, you know, we're as we always do, we continue to curate that restructuring pipeline. And we'll take advantage of, you know, the projects that we have as we exit
spk05: the year. Yeah, I think maybe Jeff, just something else to it, you know, we kind of give you a point number on the line impact. And I think that's, you know, approximate. I think we're probably going to revisit that for next year, because it really isn't a point number. There is some movement in it, it can happen from quarter to quarter. And I think just to be that precise and give you that precise number is probably a little bit inaccurate. I mean, we try to get as close as we can to our estimates, but we have some moving pieces in there that Greg just described. So I think, you know, I don't think there was anything major that moved. There's no major assumption changes. But a couple of little things, you know, move $20, $30 million, which given the size of our company isn't much, and you'll get a different outcome. So I wouldn't read too much into it.
spk03: Understood. And then just on the projects, the late set, the long cycle order dynamics sound encouraging. Just elaborate a little bit on the cash flow impact of that. It does sound like, you know, maybe the cash cycle on some of this is stretching out a little bit. You know, what kind of opportunity do you see perhaps to unlock some more cash from working capital or other elements in the next year?
spk09: Yeah, I would say that's, you use the right word, it's the cash cycle. I wouldn't call it a problem. I mean, we had obviously a very strong projects related results as we were in last year and then coming into the early part of this year. And that's cycled down a bit with the with the orders pattern that we had seen, you know, previously. And now as that cycles back up, you're going to you're going to restart the advanced, you're going to restart the advanced cycle on a lot of those large projects. And so we expect to start seeing, you know, that coming back through. And then, you know, we continue to do a lot of work around inventory as well. You know, the our inventory, while it hasn't been a huge year over year cash flow problem for us, it's still growing. And, you know, we're trying to take that down every year as we try to become more and more efficient. So, you know, we're still working our initiatives around trying to drive inventory down as well. And, you know, we hope and expect that that's going to be supportive as we continue to move into the fourth quarter and next year from a pre cash perspective.
spk05: Yeah, as Greg pointed out, I think the biggest mover for us here in Q3 was sort of this movement around the, you know, advances slash unbilled in much of our projects business. That's really the biggest needle mover. And we got a lot of our orders today, we weren't able to collect the cash. And, you know, from a last year perspective, a lot of orders came in earlier in the year. So, we had the benefit of the advances. It's not the case this year. And that was a big swing. I would maybe not as big of a factor, but our reinvestment ratio was the highest in Q3 versus the whole year. So, that's probably the other factor, although not the major one for the cash outcome.
spk03: Great. Thank you.
spk05: Thank you.
spk01: We'll take our next question from RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
spk02: Thank you. Good morning, everyone.
spk07: Good morning, Dean.
spk02: Morning. Hey, on PMT and process in particular, it was impressive to hear about these projects in Russia and China. We've heard from your competitors in process about pushouts of projects in particular. And are you seeing pushouts? Anything at the margin that you'd like
spk05: to add? We were actually very pleased with our global major projects this quarter. I mean, we were up strong double digit, actually, in that segment. So, that was one of the really nice stories for us for the quarter, probably even better than we expected. So, really, really nice progress. And Q4 looks quite robust as well. So, hopefully, we'll be able to secure those as well. But I think that was one of the more positive stories for us in the quarter. And good orders, gross in Russia, China, some of the economies that have been, you know, that are presumably challenged. But, you know, frankly, we're not seeing that.
spk02: Got it. And this might be a bit of a rhetorical question, but based upon the upside in defense and space this quarter, you know, the 17% growth in core revenues and commentary about 2020, are you, you see Honeywell disadvantaged at all in some of the defense industry consolidation that we're seeing?
spk05: No, I don't. You know, we're not generally a system, you know, final system provider. We are a component tier one provider to those. I don't think that that calculus changes with the consolidation that's happening. We continue to be a good supplier to a lot of those integrators and you know, system providers, but I don't see that dynamic changing.
spk02: That's helpful. Thank you.
spk05: Thank you.
spk01: Moving next to Julian Mitchell with Barclays. Please go ahead.
spk06: Hi. Good morning.
spk01: Maybe,
spk06: hey, good morning. Maybe just a first question around. If you look at how demand trended in recent months, you'd called out the integrated picking up late in Q3, also some of the HBT activity in Europe. I wondered if there was anything else that you would highlight that got better or worse over the past sort of two or three months as you moved through it and also maybe how your own repositioning and capex spending plans may have changed when you're thinking about 2020, if at all.
spk05: Yeah, I mean, in terms of, you know, kind of some of changes, I think, you know, we had a relatively slow start in Europe for month one and month two of the quarter and we're a little bit concerned heading into September, but September actually was very, very robust and economies like Germany, France, the UK, all did very, very well. So, you know, we had, although we were worried, but, you know, September was very, very robust, much better than sort of what, you know, the industrial GDP print would have you believe. So that was certainly better. You know, kind of as we think about 2020, it's probably, it's Greg's point, it's probably a tougher economic environment in 2020 than it is in 2019. But on the flip side of that, I don't see some fall off the cliff. I don't, you know, as I look at our backlog, as I look at our growth rates in terms of the long cycle businesses, the level of rankings we have for defense and space, the SPS pickup that we're expecting, reasonable comps for aerospace, although tougher, but, you know, maybe not double digit, but still good growth. We're certainly not, we're far from planning 2020 right now based on what we see as doom and gloom kind of a year, that's for sure. And, you know, if anything, hopefully there'll be some more positive outcomes. Looks like Brexit may reach a positive conclusion based on the news we're hearing this morning. Hopefully there'll be more of that positive news to go here in Q4.
spk09: Yeah, and as it relates to repositioning, I think we're, as we go into 2020, we're going to have ample capacity to continue, you know, driving our reposition portfolio and pipeline, you know, as we have this year as well. So I expect that to continue to be, you know, a big part of our productivity playbook for 2020 also.
spk06: Thanks. And then just following up maybe on SPS, specifically in that context, you're now in the third quarter of your organic sales decline in that business. When we're thinking about the longevity of this downturn, should we assume a short cycle duration of maybe five quarters of sales decline there and then the recovery post that? And allied to that, maybe just give us an update on how comfortable you feel with the market share in productivity products in particular.
spk05: Yeah, well, I think, you know, as we've stated in the last quarter, I think productivity products is the business where we're focused on some improved commercial activity. We saw some good signs of that in Q3. And if you look at the margin profile, incremental margin profile from Q2 to Q3, it was better. The team has adjusted their cost structure to the market reality or their revenue base. But yeah, I mean, I think, you know, we're trending in the right direction. So we do expect productivity products to return to growth in 2020. That's very much our expectation. Based on what I'm seeing today, I don't see anything which would prevent us from doing that. So, you know, I can't tell you whether it's exactly five quarters or three or four, but we expect growth in 2020 is kind of the short story.
spk06: Thank you very much.
spk01: We will take our next question from John Wash with Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.
spk08: Hi, good morning.
spk09: Morning.
spk08: Morning. Just take us a question around price and maybe also a little bit discussion around the price cost equation. It looks like at least per the Q price decelerated a touch in Q3, but obviously the very strong margin performance, I would assume you're pretty green on price cost. But can you maybe talk a little bit about that dynamic and, you know, that's playing out into next year as we're kind of still seeing some input deflation?
spk09: Yeah, I mean, we've continued to have a strong cadence around price across the company. So as we head into, you know, next year, I'm not expecting that we're going to, you know, hit a wall and not be able to continue to get price in the marketplace. And as you said, the cost as markets are slowing down, we're also doubling down on our procurement team in terms of driving our material cost deflation program as well. So, you know, we're going to keep pushing hard on both of those on both of those levers and expect that to be a net positive for us as we go into 2020.
spk08: Gotcha. And then maybe just on, you know, highlighting the balance sheet capacity, anything to call out there as we look into next year if, you know, there might be anything to do on the deal front? Obviously, you announced some small things in the release today, but how should we think about the use and the deployment of that next year? Yeah,
spk09: I mean, so first of all, we continue to be very active with our M&A pipeline. And, you know, there's a lot of things going on today as we speak, particularly given everything that's happening in the marketplace. We hope that that will actually have a benefit as we go forward in terms of asset prices possibly you know, coming down and making some things a bit more attractive. As you saw with our stock purchase program, you know, we continue to do that pretty aggressively. And as we go into next year, I think, you know, we'll continue to, to, you know, use that as a lever for us. It's been very successful here. And, you know, I think barring any large deals, I think we're going to continue to be targeting to take out at least a percent of our share count, you know, on a year on year basis. So, you know, both of those are, are going to be, you know, consistently deployed in terms of our expectations. We did, we did, as Darius mentioned, refinance of our debt. We've got some debt coming due in October. So we refinance that in the third quarter. So we still, you know, retain a very, very strong balance sheet with a lot of access to capital and, you know, with our cash flow and our repatriation program, you know, I think we've got a lot of ammunition for us to, to go ahead and use as we head into next year.
spk08: Great. Appreciate the color.
spk01: And that does conclude today's question and answer session. At this time, I'd like to turn the conference back over to Mr. Darius Udomchak for any additional or closing remarks.
spk05: I want to thank our shareholders for continued support of Honeywell. We have delivered strong results each quarter of this year and have continued to make great progress on our initiatives and delivered on our commitments. We are well positioned in attractive end markets with multiple levers for value creation and operational excellence in place. We are focused on continuing to outperform for our share owners, our customers, and our employees. Looking forward to sharing our results as well as our 2020 outlook during our fourth quarter earnings call in late January. Thank you for listening.
spk01: Thank you everyone. This does conclude today's teleconference. Please disconnect your lines at this time and have a wonderful day.
Disclaimer

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