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Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by for HESI Group's third quarter 2023 earnings conference call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Please note that today's conference call is being recorded. I will now turn the call over to our first speaker today, Yan-Ting Shi, the company's investor relations director. Please go ahead.
Yan - Ting Shi
Thank you, operator. Hello, everyone, and thank you for joining HESI Group's third quarter 2023 earnings conference call. Our earnings release is now available on our AI website at investor.hecitec.com, as well as via newswire services. Today, you will hear from our CEO, Dr. David Lee, who will start the call with an overview of our recent updates. Next, our global CFO, Mr. Louis Tse, will address our financial results before we open the call for questions. We also invite participants to view the slide that we have prepared for part of our discussion today. This doc is available on our IELTS website at investor.cursivetech.com in the financials followings quarterly results section. Before we continue, I refer you to the safe harbor statement in our earnings press release, which applies to this call, as we'll make forward-looking statements. Please also note that the company will discuss non-GAAP measures today, which are more thoroughly explained and reconciled to the most comparative measures reported on the GAAP in our earnings release and SEC followings. With that, I'm pleased to turn over the call to our CEO, Dr. David Lee. David, please go ahead.
David Lee
Thank you, Yandy, and thank you, everyone, for joining our call today. We're delighted to report that our third quarter financial performance surpassed our expectations. Our quarterly net revenues rose to reach another record high, and our total delivery doubled year over year. Both metrics outperformed our initial projections. We're also thrilled to announce that we successfully maintained a growth margin of over 30% in the third quarter, despite the challenges posed by the transition and upgrade phases for both RoboTaxi and Ada's products. The transition of Ada's product is now fully wrapped up. This accomplishment was made possible through exceptional efforts, as well as our robot manufacturing, engineering, and supply chain optimization capabilities. As a result, we're now learning step-by-step The dip in gross margin at the lower end of the V-shaped trajectory we initially anticipated at the beginning of the year, but it made a direct leap into a stable long-term gross margin step. Upon careful comparison with our six US listed peers using publicly available information, we can probably say that our performance metrics have excelled across entire sectors. This includes stellar achievement in revenue scale, delivery, market share, and gross margin. Remarkably, we have maintained a robust balance sheet throughout this process. Of particular significance is the fact that we have achieved positive operating cash flow for the third consecutive quarter, totaling RMB US$121 million for the first nine months of 2023. This places us as the sole standout company among the peers to achieve this feat, demonstrating our unwavering commitment to operational efficiency amid continuing growth. These financial milestones are a testament to our devoted team's hard work and underscore our steadfast dedication to achieving a long-term, sustainable growth and profitability. Let's delve into the third quarter business update, starting with notable agencies on wings. We're making significant strides on the domestic front. In the third quarter, we achieved a global milestone by proudly announcing the first of this kind series production design win for our long-range, ultra-thin, in-cabin ET25 LiDAR with FAW Group, one of the top OEMs in China for the next-generation EV models under their prestigious Hongqi brand, defined by quality, luxury, and safety. ET25's revolutionized in-cabin placement protects the LiDAR unit itself From dirt, grime, and well, allowing OEMs to design car models with diminished aerodynamic resistance and sleep, the statics would please the exteriors. Fueled by our next generation vertically integrated high performance module, ET25 has emerged as the in-cabin LiDAR forerunner in terms of range detection, achieving an impressive 250 meters at 10% reflectivity rate. This success of this new design wing with FAW groove signifies robust progress in the commercialization of this in-cabin product and marks an immersed leap forward towards its mass production scheduled to materialize by the first half of 2025. Furthermore, we recently broadened our client portfolio and secured exclusive partnerships, including multiple new design wings with great wall motor, one of the largest automakers in China, as well as Leap Motor Linpao Qizhe and Neta Nezha Qizhe, two leading EV automakers in Chinese market. Their new EV models will feature our flagship AG series LiDAR, are set to debut starting in 2024 and 2025. It is noteworthy that among these recent design wins, several of them have prior engagement with our industry peers. Their choice to switch to our LiDAR products for certain existing or future models is a strong endorsement of the superior performance of our high-quality LiDAR products and our proven record of timely delivery. We're also excited to witness a rising trend where more OEMs are making the switch over to partner with us while none of our existing customers have made the move to a competitor. With these recent partnerships, we have secured design wins with 14 OEMs and Q1 suppliers, including the top five OEMs in China across over 50 vehicle models, a robust testament to our global market leadership. We eagerly look forward to contributing to the fulfillment of these automotive manufacturers' vision of creating more intelligent and safer vehicles. In international developments, we're delighted to announce that we are currently deeply engaged in nine RFI and RFQ discussions with six leading global OEMs from North America and Europe. While none of these were slated for conclusion in the third quarter, we expect three RFQs to be finalized in Q4 per customer's projection, including one from global OEMs and two from global OEMs joint ventures in China. It's worth noting that these vehicles are not exclusive to the Chinese market. Some of them are intended for global distribution. For two of these global OEMs, we have attained supplier qualification status following extensive audit procedures that include evaluation of the product quality, production line, supply chain, certification, financial stability, and other essential aspects, complemented by multiple round-up site visits. We are enthusiastic about the potential partnerships that may emerge, and we look forward to sharing more exciting news and development in the near future. In addition, we have broadened our collaboration with the prominent European OEM mentioned in our last earning call, including additional strategic development programs focused on the research and development of integrating our cutting-edge LiDAR technology into a multi-sensor package, targeting car models with SOP dates in 2028 and beyond. This expansion marks a deepened and reinforced partnership with this esteemed OEM, underscoring our acknowledged technical excellence and strategically positioning for us for potential future design wins for them. As I highlighted in my previous quarterly update, development programs of this nature are an integral to our international market strategies. they provide us with distinctive opportunity to showcase our technological prowess and engineering capabilities for OEM customers before they make final decisions regarding vendor selection. Given our accelerating number of global and domestic OEM design wings, it is becoming clear that OEMs prefer Hasai's LiDAR's superior performance in range and resolution and higher quality to that of our competitors offering. Next, I'd like to share an update on our manufacturing and the product enhancement. As you're aware, Hussain is dedicated to expeditiously advancing new products towards the SOP phase. In September, we celebrated a new milestone with our FC120, the world's first fully solid-size blind spot LIDAR to attain SOP and to be installed on a series production vehicle model, Postone 01. The first full-size luxury SUV model from Rockmotor was harnessing the advantages of the FT120's ultra-wide FOV field of view and the minimum blind spot, coupled with our flagship long-range AT series LIDAR. The resulting car model features a powerful 3D high-precision perception system, providing smarter and safer driving experience across a wide range of road scenarios. Turning our attention to our AT series LiDAR, in the third quarter, we officially launched AT128P model, the upgraded iteration of our flagship AT128A, the long-range LiDAR. AT-128P boasted an impressive set of improvements, including range extension to 240 meters at 10% reflectivity rate, higher resolution, enhanced point cloud regularity, and a 20% reduction in power consumption. Achieving a seamless transition from SOP to full-scale production at our Hearst Center in Hangzhou represents a momentous achievement that strategically positions us to leverage economies of scale through the highly automated production line in this facility, which is specifically tailored for the mass production of our mature products. We're now poised to reap the rewards of improved cost efficiency with substantial volume shipment expected in the fourth quarter of this year. The success of our recent product upgrade and the seamless ramp-up production at Hertz Center not only reflects our unwavering commitment to meeting market demand, but also stands as an invaluable learning experience. This endeavor has provided us with crucial insights and knowledge that will play a pivotal role as we contemplate expanding our production capabilities in the future. Moreover, it has strengthened our present market leadership in lighter deliveries, positioning us for sustained success. By leveraging our in-house manufacturing capabilities, we are well prepared to innovate and thrive in the dynamic landscape of every evolving industry. Lastly, I'd like to share what we have recently completed, the construction of our R&D and in-house manufacturing facility Maxwell Center, located in Jialing, Shanghai. In addition to actively preparing to produce our new fully solid-state FT-120 LiDAR, This facility is now equipped with spearhead research and development of our next generation LiDAR products. We've established 90 functional and performance testing programs with plans to scale this number to hundreds in the near future. The seamless integration of R&D activities and the production processes in this state-of-the-art facility not only amplifies efficiency but also expand our capability to introduce groundbreaking solutions to the market. We're enthusiastic about the potential this facility outlocks, driving our research initiative and enhancing the overall quality and time to market of our future product offering. To summarize, we steadily and effectively navigated our product transition during third quarter. This triumphs along with stronger-than-expected quarterly revenue, deliveries, and growth margins, put us on track for a strong finish to the year. Our continuous run of design wings and development programs from leading domestic and global OEMs is not just a remarkable feat. It's a resounding testament to our market leadership and strengthens our foundation and enduring growth. Our steady-fast commitment to performance Quality, safety, and reliability will continue to guide our endeavors as we remain dedicated to advancing the cause of autonomous transportation by enhancing safety systems and saving lives worldwide. I'll now turn the call over to Louis to share more details on our financial performance and outlook. Louis, please go ahead.
Yandy
Thank you, David. And hello, everyone. Let's go through our operating and financial figures for the third quarter. To be mindful of the length of our earnings call today, I encourage listeners to refer to the third quarter earnings release for further details. We are pleased to see that our net revenues exceeded the top end of our guidance, increasing 33.5% year over year, reaching another record high of RMB $446 million. US$61 million. We achieved this growth against the high comparable third quarter last year, which benefited from the bounce back after the Shanghai COVID lockdowns in the second quarter of 2022. Deliveries outperformed as well, more than doubling year over year to over 47,000 units in total, further solidifying our leading position in the global LIDAR market. In terms of Gross margin, I would like to remind you that at the beginning of the year, we anticipated a simultaneous product transition for multiple products before we could fully benefit from economies of scale. Hence, Q2 and Q3 were designated as a product transition phase, and we are expecting a significant drop on gross margins, forming a V-shaped pattern. our gross margin for the third quarter of 2023 reached 30.6%, significantly higher than our earlier guidance. Driven by continuous improvement in our manufacturing cost structure, as David just mentioned, continued robust demand for high-margin autonomous mobility products also contributed to the quarter's margin uptake. As a result, both Q2 and Q3, which were previously considered as a product transition phase, has significantly outperformed our initial projections. Our relentless efforts to improve manufacturing scale and optimize cost structure also led to our unmatched financial strength in the global LiDAR industry, marked by our third quarter of positive operating cash flow, RMB 47.6 million, US dollar 6.5 million. Our robust year-to-date performance positions us to continue to advance strong our path toward profitability and achieve sustainable long-term growth. Now, turning to our financial outlook, where we expect a strong performance. Our robust third quarter results bode well for our seasonally strongest fourth quarter. For the fourth quarter of 2023, we expect net revenues to be between RMB 535 million, US $73.3 million, and RMB 555 million, US $76.1 million, representing a year-over-year increase of approximately 30.7% to 35.6%. We are pleased to share that with the shift toward a more optimized AT128P product. We are now entered a mature stage of production for ADAS. Consequently, we anticipate a high level of predictability for ADAS in the future, characterized by stabilized manufacturing processes, controlled cost structure, and well-managed supply chain. We take pride in having overcome the challenges posed by the transition process and navigate it swiftly and carefully, thanks to our outstanding capability in engineering development and adept supply chain management. We are delighted to announce that we are all on track to deliver on our target of 220,000 LIDARs in total for 2023. In fact, we are seeing growth adoption of LIDAR systems equipment with LIDAR by OEMs globally. We anticipate this momentum will accelerate into 2024. For this reason, we expect our LIDAR volume to more than double to approximately 500,000 units next year. Based on our customer order forecast, by the end of 2024, We anticipate 13 ADAS OEM customers will reach SOP, expanding our portfolio to include over 40 SOP vehicle models. As of now, we have secured design wins with 14 ADAS OEMs covering over 50 vehicle models in total, and we expect these figures to climb significantly throughout 2024. Therefore, we reaffirm our annual revenue target of RMB 1.8 billion, approximately U.S. 250 million, in conjunction with a group-level blended gross margin of 30% to 35% for full year 2023. By December, we anticipate achieving a monthly delivery rate of 40,000 units, positioning us well ahead of the competition in the global LIDAR industry. The above outlook is based on our current market conditions and reflects the company's preliminary estimates of market and operating conditions and customer demand, which are all subject to change. In summary, while the third quarter was a bridge quarter, we exceeded our own performance expectations in terms of financial and secured major design wins, setting us apart in the market and laying a solid foundation for further growth and development. Bolstered by the momentum we've generated, we are eagerly looking forward to the exceptionally promising fourth quarter as we continue our journey toward profitability. Before going into Q&A, I'd like to take a moment to add my personal opinion on Alistair's tactics and behavior toward her site. Specifically, I want to address the recent national origin-based smear campaign of false claims being made or directed by Alster and other competitors against us. A point-by-point discussion of our competitors' fabricated claims regarding HOSAI's LIDAR technology and possible intended uses and HOSAI's responses can be found in the company's October 12, 2023 press release available on our website and in presentation available on Hossai's IR website at investor.hossaitech.com in the finances filing quarterly results section. Alster and its media and lobbying agents have attempted to discredit Hossai Technologies and business practices seeking to ban Hosei's products from the U.S. marketplace, relying primarily on basis IP infringement claims and exploiting heightened China-U.S. geopolitical tensions. I find this line of attack focused on a company's national origin deplorable and contemptuous. Alster's claims are unsubstantiated, and Hosei denies all allegations and innuendo by Alster. Alster has spent millions of dollars on litigation expenses and lobbying fees on Capitol Hill in a desperate attempt to portray Horsai as a Chinese company that steals American IP and is possibly working with the Chinese military to undermine US national security by potentially using our LIDARs to spy on Americans, launch cyber attacks, and aid the Chinese military in intelligence gathering, all are patently false. These underhanded tactics are the actions of a desperate company that is unable to compete effectively on the merits of its products in the LIDAR marketplace against Hossai. Frankly, Hossai LIDARs are preferred by customers because they perform much better range and resolution and are of higher quality than Alster's products. As a result, the Alster Velodyne combination has seen several years of declining revenues, dwindling LIDAR shipments, shrinking gross margins, and mounting losses, losses of $335 million for the first nine months of 2023 on just $59 million in revenues alone. This is all reflected in declining global Autonomous vehicle LIDAR market share, 1% in 2022 for Alster, compared to Hossai's market-leading 47% share, according to Yole Intelligence. And Alster's precipitous share price drop of over 95% from its high level several years ago. During the ITC investigation, Alster's desperation became very clear. Earlier this year, Alster Velodyne attempted to divest the litigation settlement and patent cross-licensing agreement entered into with Hossai, which is at the heart of the Alster Hossai IT case. He tried to divest it into a separate legal entity, Adapt Vision Holdings LLC. Then Alster claims it wasn't bound and did not have to abide by its own contractual obligations contained therein, including the agreement's patent cross-licensing provision, allowing each side to use the other's patent LIDAR IP for 10 years and not to sue provisions, designating arbitration as the dispute resolution mechanism. Obviously, Alster knew the agreement was a major, major liability in their case. The ITC judge saw right through Alster's legal subterfuge and would have none of it. She ruled Alster an affiliate of Elidine via merger. So Alster could not escape its legal obligations simply by transferring the agreement to a new entity. If only things were just that simple. spin off the contract obligations you don't like, and keep the ones you do like. In this bizarro world, contracts would cease to have a commercial value whatsoever. She then went on to grant Hasai's motion to terminate in the ITC case. As an American, I find Alistair's desperate national origin-based xenophobic tactics of attacking Hasai with baseless stereotypical allegations, and innuendo, repugnant and antithetical to American principles and values. In my opinion, such tactics and behavior should not be tolerated. Simply put, I believe Alster's smear campaign against Haasai is downright un-American. This concludes our prepared remarks. for today. Operator, we are now ready to take questions.
Operator
Thank you. If you wish to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. If you wish to cancel your request, please press star two. If you're on a speakerphone, please pick up the handset to ask your question. For the benefit of all participants on today's call, if you wish to ask your question to management in Chinese, please immediately repeat your question in English. For the sake of clarity and order, please ask one question at a time. Management will respond and then feel free to follow up with your next question. Your first question comes from Tim Hessel with Morgan Stanley.
Tim Hessel
Please go ahead.
Tim
Hello. Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. So I got a couple of questions. The first one is about the growth opportunity because Over the past quarter, we noticed that in China, more and more EV makers are providing this so-called urban navigation on autopilot and OV functions on the inflection models and clean that as one of the key selling points into next year and the year after. So I just want to know that based on the company's project pipeline, have you seen that LiDAR adoption at an inflection point might start kicking off from next year? So in the meantime, to get broadly adopted on not just the high-end model we saw today, but also the mass market and mid-range models, would Kursai consider undercutting the competitors' prices more aggressively to capture the first wave of function upgrade? Especially, we noticed that some of our competitors are still suffering from supply constraints. So that's my first question.
Yandy
Thank you, Tim. This is Louis. Your point is very well taken, and I think that's exactly what is happening. So as you know, our largest customer, Li Auto, is pushing aggressively on urban NOA, and I think the take rate will continue to climb into 24. And we've seen that across the high-end models from most of the new EV companies like Li Auto, NIO, Xiaopang, and BYD. And so they're leading in that area. The other ones are coming in behind. And we're very pleased with Hosei's market share gains. I think we have 14 out of the 17 OEMs in China, the largest ones. And so we're very pleased with these market share gains. We do have the ability to lower price. And in the Tesla-style strategy, it is something we will consider for 2024. And that's why you've seen us take up our numbers significantly. Does that answer your question?
Tim
Yes, that's great. And my second question, I think, Luisa, you just provide additional details and comment about the dispute with the global players. But just want to follow up on that. So after RTC officially terminated the patent infringement investigations, I think it was brought up by Oster. So do you think that's going to help actually increase the size of global awareness and make global OEM and card makers feel more confident and comfortable to co-work with us? Or do you think there could be any likely more dispute coming through with a group of global light-diam makers, as you just mentioned, that might actually urge the global players or global card makers to adopt a wait-and-seek attitude. So will the card maker become more aggressive to place the order to her side, or basically they will tend to be more cautious in the near term? So could you share your view with us?
David Lee
Yeah, thank you, Tim. This is David. This is a great question. I think it's very important for people to see evidences on a lot of the IP acquisitions. If we briefly reveal the history, We had a cross-licensing with Velodyne, and then Velodyne sued Alster, and then Alster sued us. And then, of course, it's in the competitor's best interest to say that we believe Hasai infringes us, right? But then in the end, we have to look at the rulings of the judges. So determination is very important to us, and it also shows that our ability to defend ourselves at the international court level And also, it verifies that we declined all the accusations. And then I definitely believe the global OEMs and all the customers are feeling much more informed and confident to go with us. In the past, while there is ongoing litigation, there's always concern. But whenever there is strong evidence in favor of us, it further verifies that we have the strongest leadership, not only in the revenue shipment, but also in the intellectual property.
Yandy
I think just to add to David's comment, I think the global OEMs will feel more comfortable selecting us. You have to remember, there has been no selections made by any global OEM so far this year on the ADA side. The ones that were in the past were two, three, four years ago. those selections. So we're definitely in the hunt and always in the top one or two for these global, but they have not made official determinations at this time. But you can be rest assured that based on our feedback, our LIDARs are the best performing, bar none. So I think it's just a matter of time, and we are working those global OEMs.
David Lee
Yeah, we wouldn't know whether some of the delayed decision was because of IP or not. Of course, we don't have evidence for it, but we do know that getting this out of the way is extremely helpful for people to make a decision purely based on performance and the quality of a vendor.
Yandy
So, Tim, you understand that all these LIDAR decisions made in ADOTS this year all go to us. Right, so it's a testament to the quality and the performance of our products. Thank you.
Tim
Got it. Thanks for all the attention callers, David and Louis. Just one last question, if I may, because I noticed that during the presentation just now, I think Louis mentioned that we saw the increasing shift to AT1 to 8P. because I think third quarter actually surprised us, the margin surprised us on the upside. So could you share a little more information about what's the sales mix of AT1 to AP in fourth quarter? And when do we expect the major customers to fully upgrade their LiDAR to Pro? So if that's the case, could we see the further or more mid-fourth margin improvement in the following quarters?
Yandy
That's a great question. So in Q3, The mix of old AT128 was 75%. AT Pro or P was 25%. It will flip in Q4. In Q4, AT Pro version will account for 75% of shipments. And the older AT128 will be about 25% as it slowly phases out.
David Lee
Yeah, I want to point out that I think we call that AT128P as opposed to Pro. I think the word pro in different industries sometimes means better, sometimes it means an inferior product than the original one. In our case, this is a major upgrade with better range and better accuracy, better point cloud density and lower power consumption. So it is a major upgrade. That's why we decided not to call that a pro and really because it's a, if anything, it's a max version, not pro still. Right, so we don't want people to confuse. So just for the record, we will call that AT128P.
Yandy
So it will be 75% in this quarter, Tim, Q4. ATP.
Tim
Got it. Got it super clear. Thanks for sharing all the details and looking forward to more exciting upgrades in the following quarter. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you, Tim.
Operator
Your next question comes from Jeff Chung with Citi. Please go ahead. Hi, good morning.
Jeff Chung
This is Jeff from Citi. So my first question is about the new shipment guidance that Louis made in the presentation on around 500,000 units later next year. So my understanding is the previous guidance was 400,000 units next year. So did the company just upgrade the sales guidance in the next year? So this is the first thing I want to check. And if yes, why? And was that due to new shipments and new customers? This is my first question. And then separately, Louis also said the 40,000 unit shipment in a single month December, which means that By the end of this year, we can achieve a 480,000 unit annualized rate. So this is very close to the 500,000 units shipment target next year, which means that we do not need to invest much on CapEx. This should result in a very strong cash flow generation into 2024. So I just want to check this out. Those are my first questions.
Yandy
Yeah, I think the upgraded guidance on the delivery numbers was from several things I just answered. One was on the adoption. Liado is pushing very hard on adoption of city or urban NOA, and that's going to push volumes up significantly. You also saw Liado take up their forecast for 2024 to 650,000 units. So that also helps us as the adoption rate goes up. When you get close to level three, it's almost inevitable you have to have LIDAR. And so that's why, as we said, we've been saying for a while, as these OEMs, especially the ones who are way ahead of the game in software, are going to adopt CDNOA and other advanced features, LIDAR will become a must. It also includes new wins like Great Wall. So Great Wall Motor has five models with us. So that wasn't accounted for last year, I mean last quarter. And all those models will debut SOP in 2024 is the schedule. And then you've seen upgraded numbers from our existing customers, as we said, plus new wins. That doesn't account for wins we expect in Q4. We have another two or three that will come in in Q4. So basically, that's why the uptick. I think $500,000, honestly, is probably conservative. But that's, as you guys know, is my nature. Second point is on the You had a question? Sorry, Jeff. The other question is CapEx. Yeah, CapEx, we have two factories now, right? The Hertz factory has one line. It can hold three or four lines. So the first line in December is an unusually high month because it's pre-billed for the Chinese New Year. So it's always going to be our highest, or it typically is our highest delivery month. And so that that's why so it probably will not be as high in January, you know in front of Chinese New Year So I think it's typically what we're fine on the capex side But we will also capex will not necessarily go down because we do have plans to build Overseas plants as well. So, you know in the plans is one for Southeast Asia and also one for North America to service our global customers But we're in a strong cash position right where we're when we I feel we're 450 million and Today we're 440 million.
David Lee
Great. The other thing is, so the other comment I want to make is that the current estimate could be an underestimate. And our customers are very bullish. Quite a few of them are very optimistic about their take rate and shipment volume in the coming year. If you think about it, as a vendor, the last thing you want to do is not to prepare for that, which means that internally we need to be prepared for a volume that's higher than our current estimate. But that's always a good thing because a lot of the investment on the infrastructure, the construction side has already been done, so it's a very limited additional investment. But the volume could go much higher than what we expect today.
Yandy
And Jeff, don't forget the 500,000 unit capacity for Hertz line one means one shift. We could add a second shift if necessary. So I think we're fine as far as capacity goes. Great.
Jeff Chung
Yeah, that's excellent.
spk10
Okay, Kai wants to say something. Jeff, and also the real demand from some of the customers next year for some months, their demand is well above 50K units a month. So that's why we needed to prepare for the new line.
Jeff Chung
Well, that's fantastic. It's a high-class problem. Don't worry. Sure. Sure. That's great. And my second question is about the fourth quarter GV margin guidance. Could you give us some colors? Given that, number one, we observed the third quarter blended AESP actually went up by about 10% Q on Q. So I'm just wondering what was the mix of the robo-taxi-related LIDAR in 3Q, and how does this further ramp up in the fourth quarter? And could we challenge the 35% to 40% GDP margin in a single quarter? Thank you.
Yandy
To be honest, if we challenge it, it will be around the 35% mark. but our current forecast is 32% to 34% gross margins for Q4. The reason Q3 was better is because it was more of a cosmobility quarter, you're right. I mean, the ADAS units were only 40,000. The ADAS units in Q4, our internal forecasts are double that. So ADAS will typically have a slightly lower margin than the robo-taxi business, but because of the new upgrade and the manufacturing facility at Hertz, it actually, the margin is quite good. So if you remember back to the beginning of the year, we forecasted that ADAS margins, gross margins would fall in somewhere between nine and 13% for this calendar year. Because of the Q4 transition, the ATP, we will hit that. We'll be squarely up in the double digits. So everything is on track. And then next year, those numbers will go up as we hit scale. So you can count for about 32 to 34 as our internal guidance. Great. Thank you.
spk04
There is less.
Yandy
Actually, there's less. I forgot one more point. There's less robo-taxi revenue in Q4. That was originally forecast. So this is an ADAS quarter. So the fact that we can take up margins is actually pretty amazing, that we can take a margin even in an ADAS-heavy quarter.
spk04
Thank you, Luis.
Tim Hessel
Your next question comes from Tina Howarth, Goldman Sachs.
Operator
Please go ahead.
Tina
Thank you, management, for taking my question and congrats on a very strong quarter of results. So my first set of questions is related to price. So first of all, I'm just wondering how much is the price for ATP versus AT? Is it more expensive product or similar or?
David Lee
It's in a similar range because it's a major upgrade.
Tina
Okay, got it. And then the second one related to price is obviously great to see so many new OEMs are taking up LIDAR, but we also know that the price competition is super intense, especially in Chinese market, and a lot of the OEMs are loss-making. So just wondering, like, how much of a, potential price cut are they looking at in order to adopt LiDAR?
Yandy
I think on the ASP side, we are planning a price reduction in 2024 at the request of our... Yeah, so I think the price decline is always requested by the customer, and we do work with them.
David Lee
But it's at a scale of a very low number because really, in the end, it's a decision as a trade-off between the performance and the quality. A lot of the competitions will want to try to offer a lower price, but in the end, if your product cannot ship or doesn't meet the quality and the customers cannot use it, in the end, it's the passenger's safety on the line.
Tina
Understood. And then another question I guess related to price is that obviously now it's more like higher end vehicles or brands that are adopting LiDAR. But in the mid to longer term, we believe that autonomous driving or ADAS is going to be like quite prevalent in the market. So what kind of timing do you foresee like the mass market brands, like for example BYD, they're like mass brand taking up LiDAR. and then what is holding them back at this point?
David Lee
We won't be able to comment on a specific customer, but what we do see is that I think in the end it's not only about the hardware cost, it's also about the function they develop. For example, when people are able to roll out with the city NOA and other more advanced functions, the value added by such function is much higher than if you're just doing... playing level two with the LIDAR, which isn't of greater value compared to the more advanced function. So in the end, I don't think it's about specific brand. It's about all the car makers as a whole. Can we develop more advanced functions to generate more value for the customer?
Tina
Thank you, David. So my next question is relating to cost or margin. So just wondering, for our factory, when the utilization rate ramp up at a relatively full stage, what kind of growth margin can we see for our AT product?
Yandy
I think as we've – thank you, Tina. It's a good question, but we don't break out the specific margins by product for competitive reasons because then it makes us lose – it doesn't give us leverage in our negotiations with OEMs. That's why we give you a blended number, and that will be somewhere between 32% and 35% for next year as our target. But you can imagine the AM margin is slightly higher than, but you know that our ADAS margin is quite good for us to get to 32%, because ADAS becomes over 50% for sure of revenue next year and growing. So we can take that to 30%. You know it's quite good.
Tina
Thank you, Louis. That's all of my questions.
Operator
Your next question comes from Jesse Lowe with Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Jesse Lowe
Thank you for taking my question. So my first question would be on our OPAC's guidance because we noticed that in third quarter it came up quite significantly probably because we are mass producing in the heart center and also we probably will be entering into the mass reduction for the Maxwell in fourth quarter as well. So what will be the guidance for the OPEX ratio entering into fourth quarter in 2024? That's a good question.
Yandy
I think for the OPEX number was high mostly in the G&A side. And that's because of actually professional fees. So as we became a public company, we've had to ramp up on all the hiring for G&A for financial, for SOX compliance, for internal audit, and also we have to deal with legal fees from the frivolous suits from Elster. So mostly from that side. I think long-term, last year on a non-GAAP basis, our net margin non-GAAP was about 11%, 12%. This year will probably be around 9% or 10%. Next year, we're hoping to get to profitability on a non-GAAP basis, as you know. So OpEx is actually not out of control. It is because of the professional fees.
Jesse Lowe
Got it. Very good. And my next question would be, can you share some thoughts in the works we have done regarding of our overseas plan? Because previously, there has been news saying that we potentially would build a plant in Mexico.
David Lee
Oh, I see. So we haven't made the decision to build a factory in Mexico. So we are looking at different options in the North American regions because the customers there prefer if we could build locally, meaning either in the U.S. or Mexico. So there might be some false news about us deciding to build in Mexico, but that's actually not true. But we are actively... working with the customer and for the customer in finding a plant in North America.
Yandy
So the plan is to start a plant in 24, if not finish the whole thing, in North America.
Jesse Lowe
Got it. Got it. Thank you so much. That's all from me.
David Lee
Thank you. Thank you.
Operator
Your next question comes from Shihi Tang with Kutai Securities.
Tim Hessel
Please go ahead.
spk04
Your line is now live. Please proceed with your question.
Tim Hessel
Your next question comes from Olivia Zhang with Haitong. Please go ahead. Olivia Zhang, your line is now live. Please proceed with your question.
Olivia Zhang
Hi, can you hear me?
Yandy
Yes, we can hear you. Go ahead, Olivia.
spk00
Okay. Maybe just one quick question from me. As a size product gets adopted by maybe in the future global OEMs, do you have relevant overseas revenue targets for the next Two or three years. Thanks.
Yandy
Currently, our overseas revenue is close to 40% of our total. It's a little bit below. It used to be a little bit higher because of the autonomous mobility. I think ADAS is growing much faster in Asia than it is in the U.S. and Europe currently. So we would expect Asia to continue to increase the percentage. I think the overseas OEMs will begin to add significant volume in 26-27. So I think this trend will continue, but long-term we expect ideally would be 40% overseas and 60% China and Asia. That would be our target.
Olivia Zhang
Okay, that's very clear. Thanks.
Tim Hessel
Thank you.
Operator
As there are no further questions now, I'll turn the call back over to the company for closing remarks.
Yan - Ting Shi
Thank you once again for joining us today. If you have any further questions, please feel free to contact our IR team. This concludes today's call and we look forward to speaking to you again next quarter. Thank you and goodbye.
Operator
This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect your line. Thank you.
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