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spk07: Hello, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for standing by for HESI Group's fourth quarter and full year 2023 earnings conference call. At this time, all participants are in listen-only mode. Please note that today's conference call is being recorded. I will now turn the call over to our first speaker today, Yuan-Ting Shi, the Company's Investor Relations Director. Please go ahead.
spk08: Thank you, operator. Hello, everyone. Thank you for joining Hesite Group's fourth quarter and four-year 2023 earnings conference call. Our earnings release is now available on our IR website at investor.hesitetech.com, as well as via Newswire services. Today, you will hear from our CEO, Dr. David Lee, who will start the call with an overview of our recent updates. Next, our global CFO, Mr. Louis Teh, will address our financial results before we open the call for questions. Before we continue, I refer you to the safe harbor statement in our earnings press release, which applies to this call, as we will make forward-looking statements. Please also note that the company will discuss non-GAAP measures today, which are more thoroughly explained and reconcile to the most comparable measures reported under GAAP in our earnings release and SEC filings. With that, I'm pleased to turn over the call to our CEO, Dr. David Lee. David, please go ahead.
spk02: Thank you, Yuan Ding, and thank you everyone for joining our call today. 2023 was a landmark year for Hezai. We not only continued to substantially outperform our LiDAR peers, but also extended our leading market share with stellar full-year results across revenues, total shipments, and the blended growth margin, all of which surpassed our previous expectations. Furthermore, we create a virtuous cycle of cost control and economies of scale and achieved multiple significant milestones on our path to profitability. For instance, our operating cash flow for the full year of 2023 reached positive territory, a feat unparalleled within the industry. These remarkable accomplishments reflect our unwavering commitment to sustain and responsible growth to our mission of reducing accidents, saving lives, and making global transportation safer for everyone. Let's delve into our fourth quarter business updates. On the domestic side, we achieved a significant milestone in the fourth quarter by expanding our collaboration with one of the world's largest EV manufacturers based in China. Our extended cooperation encompasses another fresh lineup of vehicle models that are set to debut starting 2024. In addition, we were recently selected by Lialto as the exclusive LiDAR provider for their Mega MPV platform. Lialto also made a standard equipment on their popular L7 and L8 Pro versions, immediately adding hundreds of thousands of LiDAR units to Hussite's growing order box. We also recently forged a new strategic partnership with Great Wall Motor, one of China's largest auto brands, and Leap Motor, who has recently formed a joint venture with Talantis to include joint research endeavors and the integration of a variety of LiDARs into their vehicle models, with SOPs scheduled to commence in 2024. We anticipate that our partnership with these prominent domestic OEMs will soon deepen even further. The EV revolution is in full swing, particularly in China. In 2023, the estimated NOA penetration rate in China stood at 10%. It is projected to increase to over 20% by 2025. OEMs are eager to distinguish themselves through intelligent NOA functions. For instance, as I just mentioned, Lialto's L8 and L7 Pro models now feature our LiDAR as a standard configuration with an urban NOA function, which navigates from urban point A to point B with minimal driver intervention. Additionally, LiDAR is increasingly recognized as an essential safety feature, just like air bath. Consequently, LiDAR has become a prerequisite for safety-conscious consumers seeking the highest safety standards. Moreover, as the industry advances towards L2 Plus and L3 autonomous driving systems, a transformative trend is emerging with ADA systems equipped with LiDAR configurations making their way into passenger cars in a growing range of price categories. This evolution began with vehicles priced at 400,000 RMB range in 2022 to 300,000 RMB range in 2023, and now has extended to models priced near 150,000 RMB range in 2024, as illustrated by the recent launch of Leap Motor's latest EV model. The widening accessibility of Linar technology across affordable price categories represents a transformative phenomenon for our industry, unveiling a mass market opportunity 10 to 20 times larger than the previously served premium sector only. The catalyst signal is a key inflection point for ADAS and LiDAR adoption in China and the rest of the world. China has maintained its global leadership in EV production and sales for nine consecutive years, commending a majority market share exceeding 60% worldwide. Meanwhile, Chinese OEMs commenced mass EV production in 2021-2022 in contrast to global OEM timeline, which mass EV production is anticipated to begin around 2025 and 2026. In other words, China's EV industry is approximately five years ahead of the global curve. We are in the right place at just the right time to capture the opportunity. With accumulative shipments surpassing 300,000 LiDAR units by end of 2023, HSAI has not only realized financial advantages through economies of scale, but also amassed significant technological expertise and a profound understanding of mass production and quality management systems. This serves as compelling evidence of our established proficiency for global OEMs, particularly those who may be more conservative in vendor selection due to past unsuccessful attempts with our U.S. and European peers. Armed with this strength, we are well positioned to compete successfully on the global stage. Let me walk you through some of the specifics. First, Hasai's pioneering R&D initiatives are defining the LiDAR industry's product development trajectory. In January 2024, we unveiled AT512, our next-gen ultra-long-range flagship ADAS LiDAR scheduled for mass production 2025. This cutting-edge technology is establishing new industry benchmarks, boasting the highest available detection range and resolution. It not only outperforms industry competitors by a significant degree, but also challenges long-standing misconceptions about technical bottlenecks, including the notion that only LiDAR designed with 1550 nanometer wavelengths can detect beyond 250 meters. Standing out with industry-leading performance across every key metric, AT512 greatly enhances the vehicle's perception capability by detecting objects at least twice as far away as competing LIDARs in its category, giving the intelligent driving system over 40% more reaction time to make the safest decisions. As the CEO of a leading global OEM declared, when it comes to safety, the second best LiDAR isn't good enough. We firmly believe that investing in development of the best LiDAR products, which not only meet but exceed the dynamic demands of the market, provides substantial long-term benefits to society as well as our company and stakeholders. We are seeing various new LiDAR debuts at the 2024 CES event in Las Vegas reflect a technological convergence towards our innovation direction. Several competitors who had traditionally emphasized the use of the 1550 nanometer lasers or MAMS technologies are now unveiling products based on rotating mirror scanning systems or 905 nanometer lasers. This underscores a growing recognition of the benefits of our technology's offers in terms of cost, performance, and reliability. Our leadership and ingenuity were recognized at CES event, where our groundbreaking, ultra-thin, long-range in-cabinet LiDAR ET25 won the prestigious 2024 Innovation Award at CES. Second, We firmly believe that mass production at scale is the only way to ensure sustained operation, effectively manage cost and cultivate enduring trust with our customers. As of now, we operate two major factories, our Maxwell Center in Shanghai, focusing on new product R&D and testing, and our Horse Center in Hangzhou, a facility dedicated to mass production, boasting an unprecedented automation rate of over 90%, unparalleled in the global lighter industry. By the end of 2023, we achieved an annualized production run rate of over 800,000 units, a figure we project to rise to 1.5 to 2 million by end of 2024. Meanwhile, we expect to cumulatively shift over 2 million LiDAR units to the market by end of 2025. Third, beyond manufacturing capability, stable quality and reliability have emerged as crucial indicators for OEMs when considering mass installation of LiDAR systems. LiDAR systems require the sophisticated integration of optics, mechanics, electronics. As such, quality and precision are paramount. Amid intense competition and widespread adoption of ADAS systems, LiDAR product maturity has become EV manufacturers' primary concern. From OEM's perspective, there's no better indicator of a product's superior quality and reliability than their outstanding long-term performance in real-life road conditions. Drawing upon these assets and know-how, we are confident in our ability to expand our domestic leadership to a global scale. We are beyond thrilled to announce that, as of now, we have won over 68 series production EV models from 16 major OEMs and Tier 1 suppliers worldwide. We've been selected by two top global automotive OEMs for their new EV series production programs. And there are more. Our global RFI RFQ lineup has expanded to include a total of 13 OEMs. with nine leading global OEMs from North America and Europe, and we're adding Asia X China to the roster of the quarter. These major accomplishments mark a promising start to our global ADAS journey. Stay tuned for the updates. As we look ahead, the road ahead is filled with opportunity to broaden our impact. Our achievements thus far are just the beginning. With market-leading LiDAR technology and strategic partnerships worldwide, we are poised to capitalize on the evolution of intelligent driving, reducing accidents, saving lives, and creating a safer global transportation system. I'll now turn the call over to Louis to share more details on our financial performance and outlook. Louis, please go ahead.
spk05: Thank you, David, and hello, everyone. Let's go through our operating and financial figures for the fourth quarter and full year 2023. To be mindful of the length of our earnings call today, I encourage listeners to refer to the fourth quarter earnings release for further details. In the fourth quarter and full year of 2023, we achieved a host of remarkable milestones that underscores our leadership in the global LIDAR industry. In Q4, Our net revenues exceeded RMB 561 million, an increase of 37.1% year-over-year and 25.9% sequentially. Quarterly total LIDAR shipments reached 87,736 units, an increase of 84.6% year-over-year and 84.9% sequentially. Our fourth quarter 2023 shipments alone exceeded surpassed our combined total for full year 2022. Even more exciting, for full year 2023, our net revenues increased by 56.1% year over year to a new high of RMB 1.877 billion, with a full year blended gross margin of 35.2%, above the top end of our guidance range of 30 to 35%. Our 2023 total LIDAR shipments topped 222,000, up 176% year-over-year. Meanwhile, our cumulative LIDAR shipments exceeded 300,000 units by the end of 2023, making Hossai the first automotive LIDAR company worldwide to reach this mark. We remain focused on enhancing revenue scalability and cost efficiency and delivered positive operating cash flow for the first year underscoring our clear path to profitability. Heartened by these stellar results, we have set ambitious targets for the first quarter and full year of 2024. We anticipate the revenues in the range of 320 to 350 million RMB and total shipments to exceed 50,000 units in the first quarter. This muted guidance is attributed to two main factors. First, a significant slowdown in our robotaxi business compared to last year. It is crucial to note that given the reasonable price discount granted to a certain large robotaxi customer, the suspension of deliveries to that customer will not hinder our ability to meet our gross margin target. Despite this setback, demand for the rest of our AM line LiDAR products remains strong. Second, the first quarter of the year traditionally marks the slow season for China's automotive industry. Due to the New Year's holiday, both OEMs and suppliers strategically pull forward production and deliveries to the fourth quarter of the preceding year. As ADAS LiDAR shipments accelerate, our revenue mix will transition from autonomous mobility-led, including robo-taxi and industrial robotics, to ADAS-led in 2024. ADAS revenues are projected to increase from below 40% of our revenues in 2023 to approximately 60% in 2024. The first quarter of 2024 will be a transitional quarter with steady growth in robotics and strong growth in ADAS. accompanied by a drop in robotaxi contribution. Thereafter, our outlook for 2024 is highly optimistic, with a significant uptick in revenues and shipments expected in the second quarter of 2024. This optimism is bolstered by addition of 13 SOP vehicle models and six SOP ADAS OEMs in the second quarter alone. We believe this will lead to an approximate three times quarter over quarter increase in total LIDAR shipments for about 150,000 units in the second quarter of 2024. By the end of Q2 2024, we anticipate SOP for 26 vehicle models from 12 ADAS OEMs. We are poised for an even greater surge in shipment figures in the second half of 2024. We expect over 200,000 LIDAR shipments per quarter in the second half of 2024, as we expect 12 OEMs representing approximately 40 vehicle models to SOP by the end of this year. These projections are based on current customers' forecasts and may be subject to change. Our revenue guidance for full year 2024 stands firm in the range of U.S. dollars $400 to $450 million, an increase of 50% to 70% year over year. Meanwhile, we expect to maintain a blended gross margin within the 30% to 35% range for the full year of 2024, a testament to our robust cost management systems and growing economies of scale. Furthermore, we expect our commitment to operational excellence and prudent expense management strategies to help us achieve profitability in the fourth quarter of 2024. To wrap up, HESAI is defined by our unwavering commitment to reducing traffic accidents, saving lives, and making global transportation safer for everyone. We are firmly committed to delivering on our promise to our customers, partners, and shareholders. This concludes our prepared remarks for today. Operator, we are now ready to take questions.
spk07: Thank you. If you wish to ask a question, please press star 1 on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. If you wish to cancel your request, please press Start To. If you're on a speakerphone, please pick up the handset to ask your question. For the benefit of all participants on Facebook, if you wish to ask your question to management in Chinese, please immediately repeat your question in English. For the sake of clarity and order, please ask one question at a time. Management will respond and then feel free to follow up with your next question. Your first question comes from Cindy Huang with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
spk10: Hi. Thanks for taking my questions, and congratulations on splendid results. So my first question is regarding the dispute with USDOD. Is there any update on the development, and will there be any impact in terms of working with US OEMs?
spk05: Thank you, Cindy. This is Louis. I'll take that first, and David can chime in. Yes, for the 1260, as we had said in our statement after January 31st when we were put on the DOD list, we don't know why, so we're trying to ascertain that. As we've said very clearly in the past to our investors and to the whole world, we do not work with the Chinese military. Our LIDARs cannot do surveillance, do not store data, and we are only for civilian use and commercial use only. So we made that very, very clear. So we have now asked the DOD for information as to why we're on the list. We have moved forward with the legal proceedings, but at this point we don't want to comment further given the sensitivity of litigation, but that's where it stands. As far as effects on U.S. OEMs, it certainly has a reputational effect, and it has impacted us in a negative way. So we continue to monitor it. We're still in discussions with our OEM customers, but it's certainly not something that we want to happen, and we will do everything we can to get removed from that list because we don't believe it's justified. David, do you want anything else?
spk02: Yes, yes. Thank you, Louis. I think Louis has made our position very clear, and we do not. we are not a military company, and those accusations are false. So I will not repeat that. I think what I would try to add are two things. A is, and it's true that it's becoming an increased concern, especially the U.S. OEMs, that geopolitics is becoming part of the equation, and it is hurting us. And, of course, this is not a company-specific issue. It's becoming a... a global issue that any US OEMs will have concerns using parts directly from China. So that's why we are working very diligently with them, hopefully to resolve the issue. On top of that, what I'd like to comment is that it is also becoming clear that because geopolitics is going to become an issue And remember those European and American OEMs, the premium brands, they also have a significant size of the market in China, sometimes up to 50%. And for those cars, actually we become a preferred vendor because they like us anyways, but they definitely wanted to use us or a Chinese brand. in China for obvious reasons. So on the flip side, it is not great that geopolitics is becoming an issue across the border, and it is impacting our U.S. business for sure. But they also build cars in China, and it's a significant volume. And for that, we don't have any problems. That is not a concern. So that is also a part of the equation that I think is important to us.
spk10: Thank you, David and Louis. And my second question is related to our shipment forecast. The 540 new model launches in the pipeline and demand and model sales are super volatile. Does HOSAI apply any adjustment to OEM's order forecast and how would you respond to a rapid order change?
spk05: You mean order change for the positive or the negative?
spk10: Both ways.
spk05: Okay. I think you've known me, you guys have known me for many, many years. I always build a discount into the forecast. So our actual orders are much higher than the numbers we give. So that is already built in. As far as upside surprises, we have the capability with our manufacturing facility to meet almost any demand level because of our efficiency in manufacturing in Hertz and also because of our automation and our access to raw materials. So upside is always good. In fact, we were very, very happy to do the partnership with Liado, where the Mega and the LL... Mega standard equipment are LiDARs. It was just launched, and then on their MPV, their new L7 and L8 models Pro will now be standard equipment to have post-side LiDARs. It used to only be the max version. That alone will do the take rate from the auto in the 30% range plus to probably 60% to 80%. So you think about that's hundreds of thousands of orders over the next couple of years. So we have the upside surprises, and then any kind of downside surprises we obviously can handle because we discount to you the number we give for our LIDAR deliveries.
spk02: So again, let me talk about about this topic from a technical standpoint. One thing worth noting is that we actually built a standard product. We always call that AT128. It was not specific to any customers because it's the same LiDAR. The only difference is some of the communication software is some of the mounting, which is a minimal change. It means that, yes, you're absolutely right, there are ups and downs across some 40, 50 car models that we're expecting to ship. and it's impossible to predict six or months down the road. But if you look at the aggregate effect, it is not very difficult to understand how many of the units will be needed across the entire specialty price category. What we are happy to see is that it used to be more on the premium category, And now it's penetrating down to the 150,000 RMB level, which is a much bigger market. Given that we have many car models now in the more cheaper part of the bracket, and we're actually more confident that with the blended volume, it will be a very robust and steadily growing volume this year.
spk10: Thank you. That's very clear. And can I follow up with one more question on next generation product? So how do we bridge the gap amid the transition from AT1 to AT512?
spk02: Yes. Yes. This is a great question. Thank you. So I think there are two parts of the strategy. First, if you remember, our overarching thesis has always been a simple term called Moore's Law. If you look at what Moore's Law does is that there are actually two ways of using Moore's Law. One way is that you try to keep the price range. It's like your CPU, right? But then your performance almost doubles every 18 months or so. So that's one of the ways we're doing it. Essentially, this is the path that AT512 is taking in the sense that AT512 will always stay at the range of the AT128 on the price, but as you can already tell, it is eight times more resolution and roughly 50%. more on the range at a similar price range. So this is exactly what Moore's Law did to a lot of the consumer electronics, right? Your CPU didn't just half its price over time, right? It becomes zero, right? Of course, that didn't happen. Having said that, we also recognize that for LiDARs to be widely deployed to more vehicles, not just hundreds of thousands of them, but tens of millions of them, the mass market needs a cheaper LiDAR. And that's possible too via Moore's Law. Of course, if we try to build a more affordable version of it, it wouldn't have the full performance of the AT512. It will still be reasonably good, especially definitely better than AT128. but it could be cheaper over time if you don't need the full performance of 8512. That is the direction we're looking at. We're not quite there yet, and we will release information as they become available, but this will definitely be another trend, especially for the Chinese market that people want, and we know we have technology platform to support that.
spk10: Thank you. That's very clear. Thank you.
spk07: Thank you. Your next question comes from Tina Hu with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
spk11: Thank you very much. Hi, management. Congrats on the result and the strong growth margin number. I have a question. So David, just now you mentioned that by 2025, you guys will accumulately ship 2 million BIDARs, which means about 1.7 million in 2024 and 2025 together. So I'm just wondering, is that also a conservative number, like a bear case scenario that you're given, or this is more of like a place case scenario? Thank you.
spk05: Thank you, Tina. I'll take that, given the numbers question. I think the 2 million cumulative figure is realistic and probably leaning toward the bearish side. So I think, as David mentioned in his remarks, the demand for LIDAR as it moves down to the affordable car, mid-range and lower range, the adoption of LIDAR in new EV vehicles is going to just explode. So I think there was a holy grail mentioned in 2020 by all the LIDAR makers in the world of reaching 1 million units by 2025. I believe Hosea will be the only company to actually do so by next year. So yes, if you add the 300,000 we've done now, $600,000 or $700,000 for this year, and we expect to ship over a million units in 2025. And that's partly because of what David discussed, a market where we have high-end AT512, and we have lower-end versions for the mass market cars that are more affordable. Those two together, you'll have to wait to hear the details, but those two together will generate expected units of well over $1 million for 2025.
spk02: I also believe, Tina, David, I also believe this could be on the more conservative side for another reason. So the consumer market, especially the car market in China, it moves very fast. Everybody is kind of looking at each other and what they do, and then they try to incorporate something into their car model that will roll out in the next 18 months. So today's projection is definitely based on a bottom-up projection of the numbers we already have. But if you watch very closely for the media, for the especially past month or two, everybody's mentioning LiDAR. If you look at all the car releases, they always only mention now very few things, right? One of them is LiDAR, very specific. The other is the 800 volts charging. What was the other thing people talk about? I couldn't even remember. I think it's one of the top three things that is mentioned across every car release. And of course, a lot of the OEMs are now just claiming that, sure, we're going to make it a standard because this has become the symbol of the level of intelligent driving. And that's not a competition I can afford losing. So I think this snowball effect, we know it will start soon. it starts moving and ramping up really quickly. So that's why I think the current best estimate today from the bottom-up numbers could be on the conservative side.
spk05: Tina, you know that as we move into this year, our LIDAR will become platform LIDAR for some of these top five or six OEMs in the world. So they're actually going to be volume-wise. They're going to be actual on the platform which rolls out to them. the whole new fleet of EV cars, whether it's at the low end or the high end. It just may be different LIDAR, but all from Maasai. So then those, that's why David says it bottoms up, but the numbers actually can be much larger, especially if it becomes standard equipment on all their EV models, which I believe will happen in the next several years to many of the top auto manufacturers.
spk02: Yeah, the third one, the competing factor is like aerodynamic coefficient. Now I remember, yeah. Oh.
spk11: Thank you so much. That's really helpful and comprehensive. Yes, yes, and I do agree that it's definitely one of the top, if not the top, functions that gets mentioned by the OEMs recently. And then can I have a follow-up question? In terms of the OPEX, so wondering what is our SG&A and R&D as well as CAPEX budget for 2024? And also, do we have an estimated time of non-GAAP net profit break even? Thank you.
spk05: Yes, I think that's a good question. OpEx was higher in 2023 because we had a very large expansion year. So we went into, we built Hertz Center, we built Maxwell R&D Innovation Center, and we also had rolled out a lot of new programs on the ADES side. So our hiring went from I think we had 905 people after a set of layoffs in 2022. We finished 2020 with a little bit over 1,100 people. That was set to slow. R&D and G&A hiring will not increase much, and sales and marketing will grow. But together, I think the total amount of increase in OPEX will be much lower than the revenue increase. As long as we maintain 30% to 35% gross margins, if we hit 550 to 600 million U.S. dollars, we'll be profitable from a gap basis. And from a non-gap basis, we should be very close to break-even or probably in the second half of this year as volumes hit over 200,000 a quarter. And for Q4 of 2024, in a few quarters, we hope to get gap profitable for that quarter. Because, of course, Q1 in 2025 is our slowest quarter seasonally. So that will slow down. But overall, we expect to be gap profitable in 2025.
spk11: Thank you so much, Louis.
spk07: Thank you. Your next question comes from Jesse Lowe with Bank of America. Please go ahead.
spk09: Thank you, for taking my question. My first question will be related to our orders. So apart from Liotto, could you also share some light on who will be the top other full clients and how would the volume look like in 2024?
spk02: Yeah, I think we don't have the right to mention their full names, but Liotto is roughly going to be more than half of our total volume, but the rest of the top five customers, they will each take at least 20,000 to 30,000 units. And I think you probably will be able to figure out the names, as some of them already have been disclosed, but we won't be able to associate those numbers directly with them. So essentially, this is roughly half from Liado and half from the rest of the top players.
spk05: Jesse, without disclosing names, the top five automakers in China will start shipping with our LiDAR this year. That's why the numbers go up.
spk09: Got it. Thank you. So my second question would be related to the ASP adjustment or negotiation with OEMs. If we take this revenue guidance of US dollar $400 to $450 million, pairing with our shipment or delivery guidance, it sounds like the ADAS LiDAR ASP drop wouldn't be as much as 10%. So could you maybe share some details with how are we dealing with our clients on the ASP? And then especially we have a high concentration on LIODO. And then we, apart from that, we also have more shipment on FT series as well. Thank you.
spk05: Yeah, I think the, I mean, most of the product is in the AT series for ADAS. So it's negotiated by, by contract, and usually it's relatively a similar price for the whole year. The ASP decline for 2024 is higher than 10%. It's actually closer to 20%. But the key thing is that our cost goes down even faster, so we can still maintain the margins on a blended basis. Because remember, we still have the very high gross margin business of Robotaxi and robotics. So our gross margin is still intact at 30%, 35%. but we're able to absorb any kind of negotiated price reductions better than anyone else in the market. So we have the ability to take down price, even if we obviously don't like to do it, but the price decrease will be a little bit higher than 10%. Got it.
spk09: Got it. Thank you. And if I may just follow up. Yeah, sure.
spk02: Real quick, I want to quickly add my comments on this. So And also remember, this is also due to a strong effect of economies of scale, right? And it is true that the ASP is declining probably faster than we expected, but more importantly, the total volume growth is much faster, right? So you have to combine those factors to figure out.
spk05: Jesse, you can just look at Q4. And you can see that once we start manufacturing at high volume, the economies of scale really kicks in on the gross margin.
spk09: Got it. Got it. Thank you so much. So also want to follow up on top of that fourth quarter gross margin. So previously we were still doing the transition. So how was that transition on the AP series? And then are we having any further like product or cost upgrade or improvement in 2024?
spk05: Sorry, can you... The transition from AT is smooth, right? No issues, right? AT to ET or... AT128. Remember from the old AT?
spk02: Oh, yeah, right. That is close to completion. And it is a very solid upgrade. And also, it has gone through more validation than the previous ones. So it is a very smooth transition.
spk05: I think there's one for a small number of cars, one or two this year. that will still ship with the old AT because it was validated last year, but it's very low numbers. So I think the new AT is certainly going to be 95%, 97% of the... And it has been agreed that it will finish in the transition.
spk02: So, yeah, I think this is a very smooth transition.
spk05: And FT is rolling out. The numbers aren't huge yet, but it is getting some traction. And then, of course, ET comes out next year in SOP form. And also 8512. Yeah.
spk09: Got it. Thank you so much. This is very clear. That's all from me. Thank you.
spk07: Thank you. Your next question comes from Bin Wang with Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.
spk00: Thank you. I actually got two questions. Number one is about the growth, right, because growth seems to be in trouble. So what's your volume forecast for this company, impact for the next year volume? And number one about growth. The second question is about the growth margin in the number four quarters. Really high, despite your product mix actually deteriorate, which means much more ADAS, NIDA, in the number four quarter. However, you actually got more than 10% margin increase. What's the reason for that? What's the chain in the first quarter? This seems to be the similar product mix in the coming quarter. Thank you.
spk05: Thank you, Wang Bing. I think we don't discuss individual customers.
spk02: Yeah, so I think, Wang Bing, first, again, we won't be able to comment specifically on individual customers without their permission. But I think you're right that we do see a significant slowdown of the Robotech fee market. It'd be hard for us to speculate on whether it's technical reason or economics reason, but the decline and the slowdown of some of the orders, it is true. So, of course, The flip side is that we see actually better momentum on the ADA side, and especially the penetration rate and the unit achievement, and also the new car models coming in is exceeding our expectation. So they kind of canceled out each other for the year to help us to maintain our very strong growth. But again, as I said, We are not a RoboTaxi LiDAR company. We are not an ADAS LiDAR company. We are a LiDAR company with very strong semiconductor capability and manufacturing capability. It was true that when RoboTaxi was growing very fast, we captured the majority of the market. Now it's slowing down. It actually doesn't hurt us. to continue to focus on the much faster growing part of the market, which is ADAS.
spk05: So that's... So Wang Bing, you recall when we made our forecast for this year of $400 million to $450 million in revenue. At that time, our ADAS LIDAR count was about $400,000. That is now up to over $600,000, and I still left the revenue intact at $400 million, $450 million. just to be conservative, given the impact from the slowdown in RoboTaxi. So we didn't take the number up. But that shows you that, as David said, it kind of evens itself out. And as your question on the gross margin for Q4, you have to remember that's our busiest quarter, and that's at a time when we still had the higher pricing from 2023. And also, on top of it,
spk02: So the slowdown of the Robotex really is starting this year. So last Q4 was still a good quarter. So we do expect this year not to be able to ship. high growth margin, large volume Robotech VLRs. I think that has been already factored in and disclosed to everyone. But I think the last Q4 was still very strong for both of the reasons.
spk05: I think robotics is still growing. So that market will still grow 30%, 40% this year. And ADOTs, of course, will go well over 100% this year. And so together on a blended basis, we still expect very, very strong revenue growth to 50% to 70% year over year. And then obviously the shipment numbers keep going up. They don't go down. So it's gone from 400,000 to 600,000 and still climbing. Does that answer both your questions, Wan-Bi?
spk03: Yes, thank you. Thank you.
spk07: Thank you. Your next question comes from Jang Yu with HTSC. Please go ahead.
spk01: Hi, morning. Can you hear my voice?
spk05: Yes. Go ahead.
spk01: Oh, thank you. Thank you for taking my question. My first question is about Robotaxi and robots. We noticed that the demand of Robotaxi cooled down, but humanoid robots are developing really fast this year. Could you give us guidance for the shipment for the Robotaxi and the robots this year. Also, do we have any plans to launch a specific ladder for the humanoid robots in the future?
spk03: So I think So the second question is kind of a surprise because I think you're talking about a completely different industry and this is a very exciting industry and
spk02: And that at some point it will use large amount of lidars. I think that's one topic. And I think your question is, are we going to build humanoid robot this year? As far as I know, we don't have concrete plans to do the robot itself today. But that could benefit from using different types of our lidars technology. Hopefully this answers your question.
spk05: And then your first question on the number of units for RoboTax and robotics. The actual number of total units last year for Pandar XT and QT was approximately 27,000. We expect that number to still increase. So it's not overall, it's not shrinking. But because there is price reduction and also there may be a mixed shift toward... lower-priced Pandaro or XT units. The revenue will not grow high, basically. Robotics will grow. Robotaxi will not. It will actually shrink year over year. But the actual units are still going up.
spk01: Okay, thank you. May I have another question? I want to ask the cooperation with the global OEMs. And when should we expect the romp up in the sales from the global OEMs order?
spk02: Depending on which one, but it's a much later volume. So we don't have the specific numbers to announce yet. And it is slower than the rest of the China EV markets.
spk05: So the two that are referenced in our earnings release will SOP in 2025. So it's not 2024.
spk01: Okay, I got it. Thank you. That's all my questions. Thank you. Thank you.
spk07: Thank you. Your next question comes from Michelle Jing with Haitong International. Please go ahead.
spk12: Hello, thank you for taking my questions. I just, I think I have a few questions. So the first one would be based on your estimation for ADOT shipments, do you guys have an idea about the ADOT shipments for the whole industry in 2024?
spk05: About the whole industry for ADOT shipments?
spk12: Yeah.
spk02: Oh, the entire market?
spk05: Yeah, the entire market.
spk02: Yeah, the entire market. I think you probably have to refer to the third-party reports because we don't have the full projection for some of the OEMs that we don't directly work with. My very rough estimate is probably a little more than double of our volume. That's my guess.
spk05: I mean, we have to be very close to 50% of the global market, if not even slightly. And I think if you break it down without getting into geographic, I think China will roughly be 67% of the global market over the next several years. So given our position as the market leader in China, we have to be close, if not higher than 50% of the global market.
spk12: I got it. Thank you.
spk05: Not for everything, for ADAS LiDAR. There's obviously other categories of LiDAR. For ADAS automotive, too.
spk12: Yeah, got it. And my second question would be for products. So for the AT512, do you guys have any orders yet? Did you receive any orders?
spk02: That will be the future Level 3 product for the global OEMs. I think we've openly disclosed that we have quite a significant number of RFI and RFQ, and some of them are in the very late stage.
spk12: Thank you. That will be it for my question. Thank you so much.
spk05: Basically, there's very strong interest for 512, but there's only samples available, so orders won't come in until those samples are evaluated and contracts negotiated. You know, the orders will come in usually the year before or right at the year it actually ships, you know, actually firm orders. Okay.
spk07: Thank you. Your next question comes from Rong Zhao with TF. Please go ahead.
spk06: Hi. Thank you, Amanda. Thanks for taking that question. So I have some question regarding demand side. So apart from link power, have you observed any demand from other OEMs for equipping vehicles priced below 200,000 RMB with LiDAR systems? And how much longer do we anticipate it will take for LiDAR products to further penetrate the market for vehicles under this price point? And also with the projection that LiDAR cells will exceed 1 million units by 2025, is there Is this taking into account that this volume will include cells driven by this category of vehicles and besides main power? Thank you.
spk03: So I didn't quite get the last question, but I'll answer the first one first.
spk02: So yes, we have a few models that is already in the pipeline that will be in the range or below the 200,000 RMB range. And we do start to see a lot more requests considering using LiDAR as the standard configuration for more car models in that range, again, as a snowball effect, right? In China market, it's always rolling, right? And once they see somebody doing that, and the customers will always refer to, ask OEM, why can't we have that? Does that mean this car is inferior in terms of intelligent driving than the competition? So that is becoming amplified very quickly. And we do start to see that in the next, already seeing that, but definitely for the negotiations we have in the next year, which of course will be shipping in 2025 and 2026. The second question I didn't quite get.
spk05: Yeah, on the second question, remember the trend globally, EVs in China were over 8 million or so last year, and that's still growing. So let's say it's 10, 12 million over this year and next year. I think, as we said earlier, the penetration for intelligent driving systems at level 2 plus and 3 is going to increase. even into the mass market cars below 200,000 RMB. Second trend is, as David mentioned, is people asking for intelligent driving systems with LIDAR. That will push, and I think we've already had discussions with OEMs, where they will make it standard equipment on all their EVs. So those two factors will cause that snowball effect and will take us easily over 1 million units in 2025 based on current discussions with OEMs.
spk02: So I think a year ago, this was a much more heated topic when everyone is saying that we know the competition is difficult in China. Everyone is cutting costs. What makes you think that people will take more LiDARs as opposed to less, right? And my answer stands. If price is the only depreciation factor people consider, we should all go back to Wuling Hongguang, right? Just make a bearable car with no ADAS, right? Why would we even talk about ADAS at all? The reason is that just because exactly competition, they need to use the best band for the buck. So a buck is a buck, but the band is defined differently based on the market. It used to be the big entertainment screen. Now it's really the charging and the LiDAR. So everyone is asking about it. Then this becomes the band for the buck. So that's why it's becoming more popular that people realize with this little investment, your vehicle can stand out or at least not falling behind. So that's the rationale.
spk05: And it's all similar to airbags. It's all about safety and actually making your driving experience much more pleasurable where the car helps take the stress off. You're having to be full attention on the road all the time. So it's safety and convenience and driving enjoyment that's pushing the LiDAR development.
spk03: All right, thank you. That's very clear.
spk07: Thank you. As there are no further questions now, I'd like to turn the call back over to the company for closing remarks.
spk08: Thank you once again for joining us today. If you have further questions, please feel free to contact our IR team This concludes today's call and we look forward to speaking to you again next quarter. Thank you and goodbye.
spk07: This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect your line. Thank you.
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