Host Hotels & Resorts, Inc.

Good morning and welcome to the Host Hotels and Resorts Third Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the call over to Jamie Marcus, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations.

Thank you and good morning, everyone. Before we begin, please note that many of the comments made today are considered to be forward-looking statements under federal securities law. As described in our filings with the SEC, these statements are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties that could cause future results to differ from those expressed. And we are not obligated to publicly update or revise these forward-looking statements. In addition, on today's call, we will discuss certain non-GAAP financial information such as FFO, adjusted EBITDA RE, and comparable hotel-level results. You can find this information together with reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP information in yesterday's earnings press release, in our 8K filed with the SEC, and in the supplemental financial information on our website at hosthotels.com. With me on today's call are Jim Rosoglio, President and Chief Executive Officer, and Sarav Ghosh, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. With that, I would like to turn the call over to Jim.

Thank you, Jamie, and thanks to everyone for joining us this morning. Before we turn to the quarter, I want to take a moment to acknowledge the devastating effects of hurricanes Helene and Milton, which made landfall in late September and early October. We were deeply saddened to see the loss of life and damage the hurricanes brought. And while many of our hotels were impacted, we are very fortunate that the employees at our properties remain safe throughout the storms. In response to the urgent needs of those impacted, we partnered with the American Red Cross, World Central Kitchen, Team Rubicon, Community Foundation Tampa Bay, and Feeding Tampa Bay to deliver vital disaster relief support. Due to evacuation mandates and the loss of commercial power from Hurricane Helene and Milton, four of our properties were temporarily closed, three of which reopened within 10 days. The most significant damage occurred at the Don Cesar, which remains closed to guests. We are still evaluating the remediation and disruption impacts of the storms, and we currently expect a phase reopening of the Don Cesar beginning towards the end of the first quarter of 2025. Please note that the Don Cesar is still included in our comparable hotel results in the third quarter, but it has been removed from our comparable hotel set in our full year guidance. It is worth noting that our resilience investments at the Ritz-Carlton Naples paid off during both hurricanes. As a reminder, during the remediation following Hurricane Ian, we opportunistically enhanced the resiliency of the property by elevating critical equipment, improving dry flood proofing measures, and accelerating future building envelope waterproofing replacements. As a result of these investments, we saw minimal water intrusion inside the resort, despite a storm surge comparable to that of Hurricane Ian, and we reopened the resort seven days after commercial power was restored. Following the success of these enhanced resiliency measures, we will continue to prioritize these types of investments across our portfolio over the near term. For additional details on our resiliency investments, please see our 2024 corporate responsibility report, which details our CR program and strategy, our ESC initiatives, and our industry leading accomplishments. It can be found on the corporate responsibility section of our website at hosthotels.com. Turning to our results in the third quarter, we delivered adjusted EBITDA RE of $324 million and adjusted FFO per share of 36 cents. As a reminder, in the third quarter of last year, our adjusted EBITDA RE benefited from $54 million of business interruption insurance proceeds, which led to a 10% decrease in our adjusted EBITDA RE this quarter. Excluding the business interruption proceeds, our adjusted EBITDA RE would have been up over 5%, and adjusted FFO per share would have been up 9%. We delivered a -over-year comparable hotel total REVPAR improvement of 3.1%, underscoring the continued strength of -of-room revenue, while comparable hotel REVPAR was up 80 basis points. As a reminder, the operational results discussed today refer to our comparable hotel portfolio for the third quarter, which excludes the Ritz-Carlton Naples and Alita Ventana Big Sur. Our third quarter comparable hotel REVPAR came in slightly better than we expected, despite weather impacts from the hurricanes in Florida during the last week of the quarter. While Mali is recovering, the -over-year decline in REVPAR for Mali had an actual drag of 170 basis points in the third quarter. As we have discussed over the past few quarters, this understates the true impact of the wild powers, as we would have expected Mali to contribute 20 basis points to portfolio REVPAR growth in the third quarter, giving the transformational renovation at Fairmont Keelani in 2023 and the expected list for 2024. As a result, the total estimated impact of the wild powers on third quarter REVPAR is approximately 190 basis points. Following the anniversary of the tragic wild powers, we supported our managers, local tourism authorities, and government officials in promoting the return of visitor to Mali. Our three hotels launched the Ho'okipa marketing campaign. Ho'okipa means the spirit of hospitality in Hawaiian. The marketing efforts included social media and TV ads, digital displays, and email campaigns and videos from each of our resorts that aired in Southern California during the month of September. Additionally, the governor of Hawaii, the mayor of Maui, and the head of the Hawaii Lodging and Tourism Association met with longtime supporters of Hawaii, the Los Angeles Rams, and key travel partners across the greater Los Angeles market to communicate the importance of tourism for Maui's economic recovery. The Rams have supported Hawaii over the years, and part of the governor's trip was aimed at formalizing the relationship between the two going forward. Thus far, the sales and marketing efforts are paying off. Thanksgiving and festive revenue pays for our three Maui resorts is up over 35% and over 65%, respectively, compared to the same time last year. We are encouraged that Maui is beginning to show improvements on its road to recovery. Moving on to business mix, group room night revenue was up 1% in the third quarter, driven by rate as group room nights were flat due to the recovery and relief rooms in Maui that were booked in the third quarter of 2023. Our properties booked 212,000 group room nights in the year for the year, bringing our definite group room nights on the books for 2024 to 4.2 million rooms, with total group revenue pace of approximately 5% compared to the same time last year. Business transit revenue grew 5% in the third quarter, as strong rate growth was driven by market and customer mix shifts. Turning to leisure, the unfavorable international demand and balance held steady in the third quarter. Transit room nights sold at our comparable resorts were up 4% in the third quarter, driven by Maui. In addition, leisure rates remained resilient during the third quarter. Franching rates at our comparable resorts were up approximately 50% compared to 2019, which is in line with recent quarters, continuing to underscore the financial health of the affluent consumer. -of-room spending trends this quarter also continue to demonstrate the strength of group and affluent consumers. Comparable hotel total rep par grew over 3% in the third quarter, which represents the largest spread to rep par growth in six quarters. As a reminder, in 2023, nearly 40% of our total revenue came from food and beverage and other revenue, and our 2024 guidance assumes a similar proportion. We continue to believe that total rep par represents a more holistic picture of our underlying business as our portfolio continues to benefit from substantial -of-room spend. Turning to capital allocation, during the quarter, we repurchased 3.5 million shares of stock at an average price of $16.33 per share through our common share repurchase program, bringing our total repurchases for the quarter to $57 million. Since 2022, we have repurchased $315 million of stock at an average repurchase price of $16.27 per share, and we have $685 million of remaining capacity under our share repurchase program. Looking back on our transaction activity this year, we acquired $1.5 billion of iconic and irreplaceable real estate and a blended 13.6 times even a multiple based on estimated 2024 results. Thus far, the One Hotel Nashville and the Embassy Suites by Hilton Nashville downtown, the One Hotel Central Park, and the Ritz-Carlton Oahu Turtle Bay are performing in line with our underwriting expectations. The brand and management transition at the Ritz-Carlton Oahu Turtle Bay is going well, and we expect continued growth as awareness of the rebranded resort spreads. Turning to portfolio reinvestment, our updated 2024 capital expenditure guidance range is $485 to $580 million, which includes approximately $225 to $255 million of investment for redevelopment, repositioning, and ROI projects, $225 to $275 million for renewal and replacement projects, and $35 to $50 million for property damage reconstruction. Included in the ROI project is the Hyatt Transformational Capital Program, which is on track and slightly under budget so far. We received $2 million of operating guarantees in the third quarter to offset business disruptions related to the Hyatt Transformational Capital Program, and we expect to receive an additional $3 million this year, bringing the total operating guarantees to $9 million in 2024. In addition to the capital expenditure range, this year we expect to spend $50 to $60 million on the 40-unit residential condo development at our Four Seasons Resort Orlando at Walt Disney World Resort. The development is well underway, and marketing efforts begin July. We anticipate the formal sales launch to begin later this month with closings to begin in the fourth quarter of 2025. More broadly, we have completed 24 transformational renovations since 2018, which we believe provide meaningful tailwinds for our portfolio. Of the 15 hotels that have stabilized post-renovation operations to date, the average RepTar index share gain is over 7 points, which is well in excess of our targeted gain of 3 to 5 points. Wrapping up, we continue to believe that Host is well positioned due to our investment-grade balance sheet, our geographically diversified portfolio, and our continued reinvestment in our assets. As we have shown, we are able to access many capital allocation levers to create shareholder value, and we will remain opportunistic going forward. With that, I will now turn the call over to Sarav to discuss additional operational detail in our revised 2024 outlook.

Thank you,

Jim, and good morning, everyone.

Building on Jim's comments, I will go into detail on our third quarter operations, updated 2024 guidance, and our balance sheet. Starting with total revenue trends, total RepTar growth continues to meaningfully outpace RepTar growth as both group and transient guests maintain elevated levels of -of-room spending. Comfortable hotel, food, and beverage revenue grew 6% in the third quarter driven by banquet and catering. In fact, banquet and catering revenue achieved the strongest third quarter in Host's history, with contribution per group room night up 13% year over year. Transient guests showed continued willingness to spend as well, with spa revenues up 5% and resort outlet revenue per occupied room up 3%. Overall transient room revenue was up slightly compared to the third quarter of 2023, driven by the recovery in Maui, as well as strong rate and occupancy growth in San Diego, New Orleans, and Houston. From a leisure perspective, we are encouraged that Maui is beginning to show improvement. While RepTar in Maui was down 19% in the third quarter, total RepTar was down only 10% as -of-room spending trends returned with the traditional group and leisure guests coming back to the island. Looking at holiday progression, Maui is expected to shift from lagging to leading our portfolio. In the third quarter, Maui represented a drag to portfolio results for both the July 4th and Labor Day weekend. Looking forward, and as Jim alluded to earlier, Maui is driving holiday performance in the fourth quarter. Transient revenue pay for the total portfolio is up 2% for Thanksgiving week, compared to the same time last year, and festive period is up 20%. Business transient revenue was 5% above the third quarter of 2023, driven by rate strength. Overall, business transient demand was down 2% driven by fewer government room nights. Encouragingly, demand from consulting firms increased this quarter, narrowing its gap to pre-pandemic levels. Turning to group, revenue grew 1% in the third quarter, driven by rate growth and strong pickups in New Orleans, New York, and Boston. As a reminder, group business faced tough comparisons this quarter due to the recovery and relief rooms booked in Maui last year. We estimate that Maui negatively impacted third quarter group revenue growth by 570 basis points. For full year 2024, we have approximately 4.2 million definite group room nights on the books, keeping us ahead of same time last year. Group rate on the books is up 3%, and total group revenue pace is up 5% over the same time last year, bolstered by banquet and catering spend. Looking ahead, our 2025 total group revenue pace is nearly 5% ahead of the same time last year, driven by both rate and room night. We continue to be encouraged by the citywide booking pace in San Francisco, San Antonio, Seattle, Nashville, and New Orleans, all of which have citywide group room night pace up meaningfully compared to the same time last year. It is also worth noting that San Francisco citywide room nights are pacing up 40%. Shifting gears to margin, third quarter comparable hotel EBITDA margin of .3% was 130 basis points below last year. The decline was driven by increases in wages and benefits. Additionally, we estimate a 110 basis point impact from Maui and the Hurricane Ian business interruption proceeds we received for comparable hotels last year. Turning to our revised outlook for 2024, despite the impact of hurricanes Colleen and Milton, we maintained our previous full year comparable hotel guidance growth midpoint. As a result, we anticipate comparable hotel total rest part growth of approximately 1% and comparable hotel rest part to be approximately flat compared to 2023. Our guidance assumes a continued recovery in Maui and steady demand trends in the fourth quarter. We estimate the Maui wildfires will impact full year comparable hotel total rest part by 180 basis points and rest part by 220 basis points. Excluding business interruption proceeds received earlier this year, we expect full year adjusted EBITDA RE to be impacted by approximately $75 million relative to our pre-fire estimate. We expect a comparable hotel EBITDA margin of approximately 29%, which is 90 basis points below 2023. We estimate a 30 basis point impact to full year comparable hotel EBITDA margin from Maui relative to our pre-fire estimate, a 40 basis point impact from insurance and property taxes and a 110 basis point impact from wages and benefit rate increases, which is partially offset by a 90 basis point benefit from operational improvement. A revised 2024 full year adjusted EBITDA RE guidance is expected to be ,000,000, a $15 million or approximately 1% decrease over the prior midpoint as a result of the hurricanes in Florida. Off of $15 million, we estimate that $2 million occurred in the third quarter and $13 million will occur in the fourth quarter. Our adjusted EBITDA RE estimate includes approximately $57 million from operations of the -Carlton-Napal, a decline of $5 million compared to our prior guidance, and $24 million for operations at the Don Cesar, a decline of $9 million compared to our prior guidance. In addition, it includes $11 million from operations at Alila Ventana Big Sur. As a reminder, the -Carlton-Napal, Alila Ventana Big Sur, and the Don Cesar are excluded from our comparable hotel guidance for full year 2024. Turning to our balance sheet and liquidity position in the third quarter, we completed the issuance of $700 million of Series L senior notes at 5.5%. The proceeds were used in part to repay the outstanding revolver portion of our credit facility. Our weighted average matured 5.5 years at a weighted average interest rate of 4.8%. Our quarter and leverage ratio was 2.7 times, and we currently have $2.3 billion in total available liquidity, which includes $240 million on SSME reserves and $1.5 billion of availability on our credit facility. In October, we paid a quarterly cash dividend of 20 cents per share, demonstrating our commitment to returning capital to stockholders. As always, future dividends are subject to approval by the company's board of directors. To conclude, we are pleased with the performance of our portfolio, and we are encouraged by steady business mix trends heading into 2025. We will continue to opportunistically allocate capital as we seek to elevate the EBITDA growth profile of our portfolio and increase shareholder value. With that, we would be happy to take your questions. To ensure we have time to address as many questions as possible, please limit yourself to one question.

If you would like to ask a question at this time, please press star 1 on your telephone keypad. If you would like to withdraw your question, simply press star 1 again. One moment, please, for your first question. Your first question comes from the line of Stephen Grambling with Morgan Stanley. Your line is open.

Hey, thanks for taking the question. I guess I'd like to touch base on the transaction market. You obviously were active this year with acquisitions. I'm curious how you're thinking about how the market might be evolving now and whether you'd be more likely to be a buyer or seller, you know, at this point, if you're seeing any change in terms of who's actually an active participant, either from people putting up assets for sale or people coming to you looking for assets for sale. Thanks.

Sure, Stephen. You know, I would say that until the last 90 days or so, really, both buyers and sellers have been on the sidelines. The bid-ask spread has just been too great, and everyone was in a -and-see mode, -and-see mode for a couple of different reasons. I think the, you know, the fact that we're past the election now will clear one hurdle for a lot of people, they'll be able to wrap their arms around what the economic policies of the new administration are likely to look like over the near term. And the debt capital markets have become much more conducive to transacting. Rates have come down, spreads have come in, you know, SASB financing is available, and I think that as we get into next year, you're likely to see private equity get back into the game and come off the bench. There have been some additional transactions out there that we have evaluated, nothing has risen, has beat the bar for us, and we're absolutely delighted that we were able to complete the three deals, four hotels, and three transactions that we did earlier this year. You know, our balance sheet is a differentiator, and it will continue to be a differentiator for us. I think that we would have more competition today if those assets were brought to the market. Clearly, there would be, because they're all attractive properties, they're all unique, and they're all in great locations and one of a kind assets. So, you know, that said, you know, relationships and reputation matter, and we'll always, I think, continue to differentiate hosts as we go forward. So, our ability to move quickly with no need for financing is always a differentiator for us. I expect that over the course of the, not the balance of this year so much, but next year probably, you know, I know you'll hold me to this if it doesn't come true, but I'm willing to go out on a limb and say that at Alice, we're likely to hear about additional transactions coming to market because I do think that people, you know, have waited a long time, and you know, the good news is that the pressure to sell wasn't there, and that's because fundamentally the business is very sound and resilient. Yes, we have our little bumps in the road along the way, but it's not like folks are rushing to exit at any price. So, I think we'll see an active transaction market next year, and, you know, from host perspective, we're likely to test the market ourselves with some of our non-core assets to really understand pricing, assets that likely will need heavy capex investments that we just don't see, good hotels, but not a long-term fit for the portfolio given the direction that we have moved in over the last seven or eight years in terms of the types of assets we own, and really with our focus being on free cash flow generation as a differentiator going forward. So, we're likely to test the market. We'll see what pricing comes back at. If pricing is attractive, we'll sell. If it's not, we'll pull back and invest in the assets ourselves. We'll be hopeful to be able to be a continued net acquirer going forward. I mean, we sit here at 2.7 times leverage today. We have a lot of dry powder, and, you know, it'll either be, well, it will always be continuing to invest in our portfolio. You know, Sarab, I think, mentioned in his comments that we've seen a seven-point yield index gain on average from the investments we've made. We bought back $57 million of stock last quarter, and we bought a billion and a half dollars of assets this year. So, we'll go forward to continuing to grow the portfolio, and we prefer to do it on a one-off basis and not be in a competitive situation. But if we have to be in a competitive situation, we will, and we'll just see what happens.

Great. And maybe one unrelated follow-up for Sarab. I know we've talked about this on prior calls, and maybe I missed this in your remarks. But I guess, are we still thinking about the underlying EBITDA? There's a lot of moving parts with the different acquisitions. There's the Don Cesar issues and insurance and, you know, proceeds. Is the underlying EBITDA a build-off of still kind of that $1.75 billion? And I guess within that, does that have to include what level of recovery in Maui, and how would you generally think about Maui kind of building back? Thanks.

Sure. Yes, even if it's still the $1.75 billion, and I'll build it from the $1.6 billion if you have all the different moving pieces. So, starting off with the midpoint of our current guidance, the $1.6 billion, you would take out 40 million of BI for this year. So, 19 of it, Ian, that was 10 in Q1, 9 in Q2, and then 21 BI that we received for the Maui Wildfire. So, that's the 40 that you would deduct. Then you would add about 49 million or so for Turtle Bay and one Hotel Central Park. Add another 13 for Nashville. And then the 75 to 80 million Maui, which I'll get into a little bit more in terms of how we are thinking about recovery. Then you would add 5 million for Oliva Ventana. And then the 15 we talked about in terms of hurricane impact, you would add to that to get to a grand total of $1.75 billion. That's what we really consider to be the true run rate when we think about it, Justin, Ibarari. As it relates to Maui, as Jim and I sort of got into our prepared remarks, we're certainly encouraged by the transient trends and the pick-up we are seeing specifically for Thanksgiving as well as for festive, effectively around the week of Christmas and New Year's. The piece that is going to be a little bit challenging and will take a little bit longer to recover is going to be the group piece. Because if you recall, beginning of this year, there certainly wasn't a clear message in Maui in terms of being open for business. Once we laughed over the one-year anniversary of the fire, there's certainly much more clear direction in terms of the island being open for tourism and welcoming guests back. The meeting planners didn't really have much of a chance in the beginning of the year to really book forward. So we didn't see much group booking activity into 2025 and into the future. We expect to see that really pick up beginning next year. So the group piece of the business and group for Maui across our hotels, on a room-night basis, we're expected to be about, you know, 30% or so. And from a revenue perspective, it's about 20% of revenues as group. But it does build a meaningful base for the hotels, particularly the Hyatt. That's going to take a little bit of while to come back. So that's 75 to 80 million. I mean, we don't have any budget yet, so can't really give you a number. But what I would say is that trends are encouraging from a transient pick-up perspective. And group is going to come back. Certainly, it'll just take a little more time, probably towards the end of next year, into 2026.

That's helpful. Thanks so much.

Next question is from Michael Belisario with Baird. Your line is open.

Thanks. Good morning. Just sort of along the same lines, like on the moving pieces and all your numbers and the models, can you maybe just take a step back? What's the clean run rate for the portfolio, both top and bottom line, that you think everything's performing at today, X all the one-timers? And then how might that be different or the same as you start thinking about looking out to 2025? Thanks.

Just so I'm sure I understand the question, the clean run rate, once you do all the puts and takes, including the acquisition, taking out the BI, is the billion 750 I just walked through. The big component of the billion 750 is obviously the 75 to 80 million of Maui EBITDA that we are missing. The question really is for 2025, how much of that EBITDA comes back. For 2025, without getting into too much details, because we don't obviously don't have budgets right now, don't really have a good sense in terms of where top line and expenses will come in. But what we do know is that group booking pace is looking strong for 2025. We already have 2.8 million group room nights on the books. We picked up about 400,000. Total group revenue is up effectively 5%. And rate, group rate is up about 3.5%. But we're feeling pretty good about 2025 from group perspective in terms of what visibility we have. Specific to Maui, like I said, I think, you know, group is going to take a little bit of time to get back. And unclear at this point in time, how much of that 75 to 80 million we'll really be able to see in Maui.

Sorry, I should have been clear. I was sort of referring to the current top line and bottom line growth rates, right? Like, are you seeing, do you think the underlying performance of the portfolio is 3% on the top line, 4% expenses, all the, X all the one-time items, not really thinking about the absolute numbers, more about the growth rates, X all the one-time items.

For, you're saying for 2024 or into 2025?

Just today, just I think as everyone thinks about, is this a 2% Revpart growth environment? Is it 3%, 4% expenses? What's kind of your view on where the portfolio is performing today and looking out at the 25, X all these one-time items? Just thinking about it in terms of growth rates.

Yeah, if you think in terms of growth rates, I mean, this year would have just in a Revpart perspective, given how much drag we're seeing from Maui would have been closer to a 3% Revpart growth rate. And in that case, we would have actually seen margin expansion because the total expenses was up 2.8%. So, -to-net for this year, we would have meaningfully outperformed relative to the industry, just given the benefit we saw from all the capital investments we put into our hotels on the Maritime Transmation Capital Program. And as Jim spoke, the index share gained that we saw. So, it's sort of unfortunate that we've had the drag in terms of the Maui wildfire. Otherwise, certainly a 3% growth rate of Revpart just for this year. And we would have actually seen about a 10, 15 basis points margin expansion.

Helpful. Thank you.

Your next question comes from Smiedesrose with Citi. Your line is open.

Hi. Thank you. I just, sorry, I wanted to clarify something on Maui. Could you just talk about what you're expecting there this year in terms of EBITDA, I guess excluding the business interruption proceeds to just get a sense of like what the, you know, the gap is to 75 to 80 million you're talking about potentially for next year?

Sure. It's 97 excluding, 97 million excluding the BI proceeds.

Okay. Thanks. And then I guess one of the things, one thing you mentioned next year for the group outlook, the group calendars look good, the convention calendars look good. Any thoughts around sort of grouping up, I guess, into 2025 to help sort of lock in? You know, demands now and revenues or would you expect to keep more in line with where you've been historically in terms of the percent of overall group segmentation?

Yeah. I mean, honestly, it is really an asset by asset exercise that we go through. And we know for which years, you know, what the optimal group reuniting is and so that we can maximize yielding of the transient rate. So it really depends, but overall I would say the mix is not going to shift meaningfully for the portfolio. We certainly focused on grouping up on, you know, across the board wherever it does make sense. And wherever we do have holes, we also like fill in with contract business, the U.P. shift in contract business over the years. So the yield management is really asset by asset. You know, the encouraging thing is there's a few citywide that are certainly pacing very well for next year. And specifically for the host market, I would say, you know, San Francisco being up 40% for Pave standpoint, New York, San Antonio, Orlando, D.C., it really makes up more than 40% right now of the group room night that we already have on the books for 2025. So overall feel really good. And, you know, as we see the need for each of these assets and where the holes are, we're going to fill accordingly. I certainly hope that, you know, the strength and corporate group continues and the banquet and catering contribution that comes along with it to really drive total EBITDA.

Okay, thank you. Appreciate it.

The next question is from David Katz with Jeffreys. Your line is open.

Hi, thanks for taking my question. I'd love some, you know, initial, you know, commentary around, you know, the labor market. I think there's a lot of, you know, potential puts and takes and opportunities that, you know, may or may not occur, you know, given the election outcomes. You know, I know it's early and, you know, you've gone out of the limb elsewhere, so I'm not asking that. But any perspectives or thoughts you can share, you know, with respect to that and whether it's, you know, plus would be great.

Sure, David. You know, generally speaking, we are very pleased with the labor picture at our assets. You know, we're not the manager. We're not the employer. But we have two of the very best in the business in Marriott and Hyatt in particular that manage the bulk of our portfolio. And they're an employer of choice. You know, they are the opportunity that people search out if they want to make hospitality a career. So we're very encouraged going forward. You know, we, coming out of the pandemic, we got back to optimal staffing levels fairly quickly, you know, after we redefined and reinvented the operating model. So, you know, going, looking forward, I, we're nothing but optimistic on the labor front. I don't see any issues that are going to present a problem for us as we get into 2025 and beyond.

And then, thank you. And if I may, I just wanted to follow up on kind of leisure transient and maybe get, you know, one layer farther down. Are, is some of the softness that we're discussing more a decision to go or no go? Or would you classify it more as a pushback on, you know, on the level of rates and rate growth that were out there? How would we unpack that?

Well, I think there are a couple different components to the leisure picture. You know, go, no go. I'm not sure that that is, that's really the bottom line, David. I, you know, and I say that because if you look at international outbound air capacity versus inbound, you know, we have seen that 120% number has held steady now for the last several quarters. So, people are still traveling. They're spending money. They're just not spending it at our properties, generally speaking. We're not seeing any pushback on ADR in our, the leisure transient ADR in our portfolio. We finished the third quarter with leisure transient ADRs of 50% over the third quarter of 2019. And that has held for 10 quarters in a row now. So, people are still spending money. When they get to our properties, they're spending money out of the room as well. We continue to see records on a quarterly basis in terms of preoccupied room spend at our outlets. We've seen spa revenues continue to increase, golf revenues continue to increase. So, clearly, the affluent consumer is still spending money. We believe that over time that the pendulum will swing back and we'll see a more normalized balance of international inbound versus international outbound. I think international inbound has held somewhere around 90% of 2019 levels, maybe even a little less than that. A lot of that could have to do with the strong dollar. So, you know, we keep our eye on a lot of different things as we're assessing the health of the leisure consumer. Thank you very much.

The next question comes from Chris Darling of Green Street. Your line is open.

Thanks. Good morning. Going back to the Orlando condo development, can you walk through underwritten sales proceeds relative to your development budget there? And then, are there any similar densification opportunities that you might pursue in the near term in other places within the portfolio?

Sure. You know, are you talking about in terms of what assumptions we made with respect to top line sales?

Yeah, that would be helpful, all relative to your, you know, overall kind of construction budget there.

Yeah. So, I think the construction budget was 150 to 170 million dollars. And that really hasn't changed. You know, we started in mid-July the construction of the project. And we anticipate starting sales in later in the, this quarter, mid-November, mid to the end of November. We're targeting completion of the mid-rise. That's 31 of the 40 condos, I think, in the fourth quarter 2025. And then there are nine villas that will be completed in the first half of 2026. So, it's 40 units in total. And, you know, our anticipated returns are going to be in the mid to high teens cash on cash. So, we will not provide our assumptions with respect to sales per square foot. But we underwrote it to a mid to high teens cash on cash return. And the construction budget is proceeding on time and within budget. So, we're fairly confident that we're going to hit those numbers.

Okay. That's fair enough. And I guess to the second half of my question, any similar opportunities that you might pursue in the near term, you know, elsewhere in the portfolio?

Well, you know, one of the really attractive attributes of the Ritz-Carlton Oahu and Toro Bay was a 49 acre parcel of entitled land for residential development that's immediately adjacent to the resort, a significant portion of which is oceanfront property. And you just don't find that type of opportunity in Hawaii. And it's one of the things that really drove us to complete the acquisition of Turtle Bay. We are still in the planning stages. And we have not taken into consideration any even upside for the resort. But we believe there is going to be over time meaningful even upside at the Ritz itself, as well as a development profit. And that is whether or not we sell the land or we joint venture the development of those 49 units, of those 49 acres, which probably going to be somewhere plus or minus 250 units, and it's likely going to be Ritz residential units, at least 50% of which will participate in the rental pool because that's just how things, as a matter of law, that's how things happen in Hawaii. So it's an exciting project. It's a fairly large project. That's why we're considering joint venturing it or selling the property outright. But suffice it to say that we would expect to make a profit on the sale or development of the land and see meaningful upside to the resort, both from units being in the rental pool and a share of revenues with the owner, as well as ancillary spend at the restaurants, golf, and spa. That's the most exciting project we have. We are looking at potential development, which I can't get into any details at this point in time with you, potential residential development at another one of our resort properties. But that's in the very early stages. And as it manifests itself, we'll certainly share more details with you down the road.

Okay, I appreciate the time. Thank you.

The next question comes from Ari Klein with BMO Capital Markets. Your line is open.

Thanks, and good morning. Maybe just going back to Maui, it looks like you slightly narrowed the expected red car headwind for the year in that market. I'm just curious if that was based on what you're seeing in Q4. And then, Sirav, you mentioned group taking longer to recover in Maui. Can you just provide us where group and transient currently stands from a Delta perspective relative to pre-wildfires?

Yes, sir. So, yes, if you recall, last quarter we had said that the total Maui impact was about 250 basis points dragged to the overall red car. We have revised that to 220 basis points. In other words, it's actually improved by 30 bits. And yes, you are correct. It really is based on what we are seeing in terms of transient pace for Thanksgiving and for the defensive period. So if you feel encouraged in terms of where things are heading from a transient perspective, I will say like where we are off overall is about call it 20% or so in terms of sort of room nights, the piece that is going to take longer to come back is, like I mentioned earlier, is going to be more the group side versus the transient. And for Maui, if I remember correctly, for our three hotels, you know, pre-fire, we did about 100,000 group room nights. And while we are pacing okay for 2025, we are still pretty behind double digits in terms of group pace. And that's a piece which we are keeping a close eye on. And hopefully, at the beginning of next year, we will start seeing group activities pick up. The transient pace is actually pretty similar to where we were pre-fire, you know, at least for the fourth quarter, which is very encouraging relative to sort of where we were back in before the fires occurred. So group is a piece we are keeping an eye on. And hopefully, we see that group activity pick up as we get into next year.

Got it. Thanks for that color. And then, Jim, I'm wondering if maybe you can provide us with a little bit more color on the risk calls in Wahoop performance and how that's trended post-convergence.

It's trending in line with our performance expectations already. You know, the transition is going well. At the present time, it's at the top of the list when anyone is searching for a Ritz-Carlton, it's a very important asset to the Ritz-Carlton brand. It's getting all the attention that is certainly warranted going forward. So, you know, we're excited about it. I mean, we're working with Arte developers who bought an adjacent parcel from Blackstone on a realignment of the golf courses. There are two golf courses there. They're going to lease one and manage the other one on our behalf. So everything is going according to plan. You know, the asset was in terrific shape when we bought it. So no near-term capex needs. And we're seeing good pace over festive season and beyond in the next year.

Thanks for the call.

The next question comes from Chris Wawanka with Deutsche Bank. Your line is open.

Hey, good morning, guys. Thanks for taking the question. Jim, I wanted to kind of ask, you know, -to-date, I think you're running about 72% comparable occupancy. And if I look back to 19, I think it was over 79. And I'm curious, and I know there's nuances and the portfolio is a little different, but do you guys see any impact from whether you want to call Shadow Supply, Airbnb, or, you know, conversely, maybe some of these soft brands or even, you know, kind of these new affiliation brands that technically aren't part of your major brands? Just any thought as to whether, because it seems like group and corporate occupancy is, and certainly leisure is, you know, pretty much as far back as it's going to get. So is there any thought on kind of where those lost occupancy points are coming from?

Yeah, Chris, I, the short answer is it's not as a result of Shadow Supply, you know, and it's not as a result of new supply because the new supply picture has never looked better, you know, relative to what's being developed today as to other times in the cycle. I think what has happened, and, you know, we have about, I think we think it's eight to nine points of occupancy that we can still pick up, and we actually view that as a tailwind to the portfolio, not as a negative bias. You know, return to office is still slow to evolve in several markets, but it's coming back, and I think that is probably one of the biggest dynamic things that changed coming out of the pandemic. The good news is that, you know, Salesforce in San Francisco, they're going back to work. Amazon is going back to work. So a number of other big corporates are putting or mandating that their employees get back to the office, and I, we believe that over time, as business transient travel continues to evolve, and it has been evolving on a quarter to quarter basis, that we should pick up some of that occupancy gap relative to where we were in 2019.

Okay. Appreciate the thoughts. Thanks, Jim.

The next question comes from the line of Robin Farley with UBS. Your line is open.

Great. Thank you. Can you give a little more clarity around leisure rates in the quarter on a -over-year basis, and then kind of your expectation for 2025 in terms of what the leisure traveler, you know, kind of outside of Maui, but just sort of broadly, you know, leisure rate may look like next year, and also what it was in Q3 -over-year. Thanks.

On a -over-year basis, Robin, it's relatively flat in a lot of the markets to slightly down. Because you may recall that there were certain quarters last year where it was meaningfully above the 50% to 2019. It seems to have pretty much normalized around the approximate 50% over 2019. So for the most part, pretty flat. From a demand perspective, that's been the case as well. Again, pretty much flat throughout the year, every single quarter that we look at. Actually, I believe it was down 3% -over-year from a demand perspective in Q1, but then actually that demand improved as we went through. So again, close to flat, but not, you know, very far from flat and board perspective or -over-year standpoint. Going into 2025, just given the consumer strength we have seen and given that there is, you know, hopefully more clarity around sort of macro, the overall macroeconomic outlook, we believe that there is, that the leisure has formed a new baseline. So effectively, that's where we have settled down. And given, you know, the growth expectations for next year from a GDP standpoint, from business investment standpoint, and just overall macro outlook. And as Jim mentioned earlier, we expect that imbalance that currently does exist with international inbound-outbound to at some point sort of revert to mean. That should definitely help leisure overall stabilize, and we don't expect, you know, any degradation in terms of rate or demand.

Okay, great. Thank you. And then just a quick clarification. When you were talking about the $1.75 billion run rate, were you including, and I know that was like excluding business interruption from Maui, were you including the theoretical, like if you recovered 75 to 80 million in Maui, in that 1.75, I'm sorry, I just didn't catch you. You were sort of giving a lot of puts and takes. And what, in that 1.75 billion, that includes what kind of recovery in Maui?

Thanks. Yeah, that did assume the 75 to 80. That was effectively the long-term run rate. So it wasn't necessarily between 25.

Okay, great. That's why I wanted to clarify. In other words, based on your other comments, it would seem like you're saying that's not where you'd be in 25. So I just, that's why I wanted to clarify. Thank you. Thanks.

That's correct. Yep.

Thanks. The next question, sorry, the next question comes from Duane Fenningworth with Evercore ISI. Your line is open.

Hey, good morning. Just on San Francisco, if I heard you correctly, any times of year or specific citywide events that stick out, I think you said room night pacing is up 40%. And I wonder if there's any more underlying detail you have on that.

Sure, that's effectively for a rural citywide, that's why we're pacing over here. Specifically in terms of group room nights for us, we already for San Francisco have approximately 220,000 group room nights on the books, which is about close to 30% up year over year from a pace perspective. It's still, you know, obviously far from where we were back in 2019, but nonetheless, good progress and we're really encouraged by the way. It's a pacing with 25 and you recall, you know, 2026 is World Cup and Super Bowl in San Francisco. So again, good things to come for San Fran.

Okay, great. And then just to you, you touched on this in prior questions, but on capital allocation, if we think about ROI projects, additional acquisitions or buyback, I guess, given your experience this year, you know, are you leaning in, you know, in any more of a direction, any of those three buckets going forward, just given your experience this year?

Well, Dwayne, I think that, you know, it goes without saying that the easiest opportunities to underwrite with the greatest degree of certainty are those that are in our existing portfolio. So we are well into the high transformational capital program. We look forward to continuing to invest in those assets and complete that program in the near term next year. ROI projects, we're always looking for places to continue to put money in our existing portfolio as well. Stock buybacks, you know, three and a half million shares, $57 million this last quarter. We will continue to be opportunistic on buying back stock and, you know, acquisitions, of course, if they make sense for us. And we're sitting here at 2.7 times leverage today. You know, we can take our leverage up to somewhere to three, three and a quarter times comfortably. So we have a lot of significant amount of dry powder to allocate capital across all those various opportunities.

Thanks, Jim.

This concludes the question and answer session. I will turn the call to Jim for closing remarks.

Well, thank you again for joining us today. We always appreciate the opportunity to discuss our quarterly results with you and we look forward to seeing many of you in Las Vegas in the coming weeks and at other conferences over the course of the year. Have a great day.

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for joining. You may now disconnect.