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spk09: Good afternoon. My name is Chelsea, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the KLA Corporation December quarter 2023 earnings conference call and webcast. All participant lines have been placed in a listen-only mode to prevent any background noise. After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question at that time, please press star one on your telephone keypad. If you wish to remove yourself from the queue, please press star two. Please also limit yourself to one question and one follow up. Lastly, if you should need operator assistance, please press star zero. Thank you.
spk03: Thank you for joining the earnings call to discuss the December 2023 results of the March quarter outlook. I am joined by our CEO, Rick Wallace, and our CFO, Brian Higgins. We will discuss today's results released after the market closed and available on our IR website along with supplemental materials. Today's discussion is presented on a non-GAAP financial basis unless otherwise specified. Our folio references all relate to calendar years. A detailed reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP results in the earnings material posted on our website. KLA's IR website also contains future investor events, as well as presentations, corporate governance information, and links to our SEC filings, including our most recent annual report and quarterly reports on Q and 10-K. Our comments today are subject to risks and uncertainties reflected in the risk factor disclosure in our SEC filings. Any forward-looking statements, including those we make on the call today, are subject to those risks, and KLA cannot guarantee those forward-looking statements will come true. Our actual results may differ significantly from those projected in our board-looking statements. Rick will begin the call with some comments and quarterly highlights. Brent will conclude with our financial highlights, including our guidance and outlook. I will now turn the call over to our CEO, Rick Wallace. Rick. Thank you, Kevin. I will briefly summarize KLA's performance for 2023 calendar year and the December quarter, and then set up our view for 2024. For 2023, KLA revenue was almost $9.7 billion. down 8 percent versus the prior year. This was higher than our expectations coming into the year as strength from legacy node customers and semiconductor infrastructure offset weaker-than-expected leading-edge investments in both logic and memory. While overall WFE spending was down for the year, there were areas of growth in KLA business segments, including the infrastructure business supporting wafer and mask manufacturers, automotive, and specialty semiconductor process equipment. KLA's service business grew 7% to $2.2 billion for the year. The company continued to deliver strong industry-leading margins with non-GAAP gross margins of 62% and a non-GAAP operating margin of 39%. Free cash flow grew 6% in 2023 to a record $3.2 billion. Moving to KLA's December quarter results, which were ahead of expectations as revenue grew 4% sequentially to $2.49 billion. Quarterly non-GAAP net income was $839 million. GAAP diluted earnings per share was $4.28, and non-GAAP diluted EPS was $6.16. We saw sequential growth in all three of KLA's business segments, and you can find specific details in our shareholder's letter released earlier today. Additional highlights in the quarter include growing adoption for KLA's 8900 series platform for high-throughput macro inspection Increased demand in the legacy node and advanced packaging categories made the platform one of the best performing product lines in our optical inspection portfolio in 2023. Continued growth in AI enables KLA's differentiation and helps drive industry growth. We continue to deploy deep learning and physics-based algorithms across KLA's inspection and metrology product portfolio. This has improved signal and noise recognition and reduce process learning cycles as customers resolve critical yield challenges. Daily, service business grew 1% on a sequential quarterly basis to $565 million and remains on track to resume the targeted 12% to 14% annual revenue growth trajectory in calendar 2024. As we look at CY24, we're encouraged by recent reports from many of our customers that the demand environment is expected to continue to gradually improve throughout the calendar year. Through collaboration with customers, KLA is focused on preparing our teams for our return to growth at the leading edge and leveraging the KLA operating model to ensure readiness to support our customers' needs as the demand environment improves. In the near term, we see the March quarter as the low point for the year. We expect business levels to improve as we progress throughout the year. The KLA team will, as always, prioritize commitments to our customers and executing on our product roadmaps. I'll now hand the call over to Brent to provide more specifics around the financials and our guidance. Thanks, Rick. Our results demonstrated the consistent execution of our global team. Despite the challenges and complexity of the current industry environment, KLA continues to show resourcefulness and the ability to adapt to meeting customers' changing and fluid requirements. Revenue was $2.49 billion, slightly above the guidance midpoint of $2.45 billion. Non-GAAP diluted EPS was $6.16, above the midpoint of the guided range of $5.26 to $6.46. GAAP diluted EPS was $4.28. GAAP EPS was negatively impacted by $1.59 for a goodwill and purchased intangible asset impairment charge. Non-GAAP gross margin was 62.6%, just above the high end of the guidance range of 60.5% to 62.5%. Non-GAAP operating margin was 40.7%. Quarterly non-GAAP net income was $839 million. GAAP net income was $583 million. Cash flow from operations was $622 million. And free cash flow was $545 million. As I just mentioned, during the quarter, KLA recognized a goodwill and purchased a tangible asset impairment charge of $219 million for the PCB and display reporting unit attributed to a weaker long-term outlook, primarily for the flat panel display business. We have begun investigating strategic alternatives for this business, which accounted for 1.4% of total revenue in calendar 2023. The breakdown of revenue by reportable segments and end markets and major products and regions can be found within the shareholder letter and slides. Turning to the balance sheet, the KLA ended the quarter with $3.3 billion in total cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities, debt of $5.95 billion, and a flexible and attractive bond maturity profile supported by strong investment grade ratings from all three agencies. In December 2023, Fitch Ratings, upgraded KLA's debt rating to A from A- with a stable outlook. Moving to our outlook, looking ahead to calendar 2024, the exact timing of a meaningful and sustainable resumption in WFE investment growth continues to remain uncertain. Though there are signs of improvements in some end markets, this improvement is off low levels, impacting our customers' profitability and cash flow generation in the near term. KLA's overall demand is stabilizing around current business levels plus or minus the guidance regions. As of now, this translates into KLA revenue bottoming in the March quarter, driven mostly by a customer project delay occurring in the last couple of months. Based on current VAB schedules and our June quarter shipping plan, we expect sequential growth to return in the June quarter and continue for the remainder of the calendar year. For calendar 2024, we currently expect WFE demand to be in the mid to high $80 billion, roughly flat to modestly up from the anticipated level in calendar year 2023. We expect that the second half of the calendar year will be stronger than the first half for WFE investment. This WFE estimate reflects our current top-down assessment of industry demand as follows. In memory, we expect WFE investment to be slightly up from low levels with investments focused on high bandwidth memory capacity and leading edge node development. Both NAND and DRAM fabs are still at low utilization levels, as consumer markets have not yet returned to the growth levels needed to bring factory utilization back to the high levels seen in recent years. Once customers consume this excess capacity and focus on node migration, we would expect to see new investments. Foundry logic is expected to be slightly up, with leading-edge investment returning to modest growth levels, legacy investment declining versus 2023. and China legacy note investments remaining relatively flattish to current levels. As for guidance, KLA's March quarter guidance is as follows. Revenue is expected to be $2.3 billion, or minus $125 billion. Foundry logic is forecasted to be approximately 60%, and memory is expected to be 40% of semi-process control systems revenue. Within memory, DRAM is expected to be about 85% of the segment mix, and NAND the remaining 15%. Non-GAAP gross margins forecasted to be in a range of 61.5% plus or minus one percentage point as product mix weakens quarter to quarter due to lower overall semiconductor process control systems revenue. For calendar 2024, based on current industry outlook, top line growth expectations, higher forecasted growth in services and expected systems product mix, we are modeling gross margins to be relatively stable around the mid 61% range to what we delivered in 2023. Variability quarter to quarter is typically driven by product mix fluctuations. Operating expenses are forecasted in the March quarter to be approximately $545 million, relatively flat with the December quarter. For calendar 2024 operating expenses, we expect $5 to $10 million incremental growth per quarter beyond the March quarter, in line with expected sequential growth in revenue. Prototype material purchases can drive variability quarter to quarter. For the calendar 24 tax rate, based on current forecast, we do not expect material changes. You should continue using the 13.5% effective rate for modeling purposes. Other model assumptions for the March quarter include other income and expense net of approximately $45 million. Gap diluted EPS is expected to be $4.93 plus or minus 60 cents. A non-gap diluted EPS of $5.26 plus or minus 60 cents. UPS guidance is based on a fully diluted share count of approximately 135.6 million shares. In conclusion, we are optimistic that most end markets are showing signs of improvement. KLA will remain focused on supporting customers, executing on our product roadmap, and positioning the company for a return of growth at the leading edge. Though visibility into the precise timing of a sustainable demand recovery is still unclear, KLA is running the business to ensure delivery of a differentiated product portfolio that meets customers' technology roadmap requirements and to execute our business in line with our longer-term growth expectations. The KLA operating model guiding best-in-class execution, KLA continues to implement strategic objectives which are geared to drive out performance. With a focus on customer success, delivering innovative and differentiated solutions and operational excellence, KLA is able to deliver industry-leading financial and free cash flow performance and return capital consistently. The past few years have strengthened our confidence in the increasing importance of process control and enabling technology advancement and optimizing yield in a high-design mixed volume production environment. This bodes well for KLA's long-term growth outlook, despite still challenging near-term demand trend. In the meantime, KLA business continues to stabilize, and the long-term secular trends driving semiconductor industry demand and investments in WFE remain very compelling. That concludes the prepared remarks. Kevin, let's begin the Q&A. Thanks, Brian. Chelsea, if you can just give the instructions and set up the queue.
spk09: At this time, if you would like to ask a question, please press star 1 on your telephone keypad. If you wish to remove yourself from the queue, you may do so by pressing star 2. We remind you to please unmute your line when introduced and, if possible, to pick up your handset for optimal sound quality. In the interest of time, we ask that you please limit yourself to one question and one follow up. We'll take our first question from Harlan Sir with JP Morgan. Your line is open.
spk01: afternoon thanks for taking my question um it looks like relative to your prior view the march quarter came in lower by roughly about 200 million i know you talked about a customer project delay that materialized just over the last couple of months it looks like based on your december quarter and market mix and expected march quarter mix that it's a foundry logic customer was that a leading edge or
spk03: Mature and old customer, was the delay more technology related or just weak demand trends?
spk01: And does the sequential growth outlook beyond March assume that this customer comes back this year?
spk03: Hey, Harlan. It's Brent. So, yes, as we said the prepared remarks over the last couple of months, we had a project that we were planning to ship roughly a couple hundred million dollars of business to that had a push out that's extended, I think, somewhere around 12 months. So could we see it at the end of 24 maybe? Could be early 25 as well. So it was more leading edge centric. And as a result of that, as we backfilled that business, With other business, we did see the percent of China go up a little bit higher than we had thought we would see when we were giving guidance at the beginning of the quarter. So it was late in the quarter, obviously affected. It didn't affect Q4 because of the moving around of other customers and slots, but certainly had an effect on Q1. As we think about sequential improvement into the June quarter, we also have part of our revenue recognition policy is that when we ship to new customers, we have to go to acceptance to demonstrate that our tools are meeting specifications around reliability and matching and so forth. And there are some shipments that we shipped at the end of Q4 and we're shipping in the March quarter that are aligned with a couple of projects for new customers where the fabs are opening late in the quarter. So our ability to get those acceptances and complete that process could be potentially constrained. So we'll see that revenue shift into the June quarter. Once you get the established performance, then that revenue happens at shipment going forward with that customer. But we do have some unique dynamics that are affecting us here in the first half. So it does give me some comfort about the sequential growth guidance as we move into June. But it is affecting what we ultimately guided for the March quarter, consistent with our revenue recognition policy. I appreciate the insights there.
spk01: Your total process control system business outgrew WFC yet again in calendar 23. Within that, inspection significantly outperformed. It was only down 5%, but your patterning business was down almost 20%, which is actually worse versus WFC. It looks like most of that full-year underperformance was due to the sharp drop-off in patterning just in the December quarter. So was that tied to the customer push-out dynamics that you mentioned, or is it just the lumpy shipment trends in patterning? And I guess, do you guys expect, you know, process control systems business to outgrow WFC this year?
spk03: Yeah, great question, Harlan. I think if you think about our business and the composition and how it moves with customers inspection especially the leading edge inspection is much more tied to development of new technology whether it's in pilot or even ramp and some of the metrology business is more tied to capacity so when you see a fall off of capacity it impacts metrology more than it would impact inspection and that's what we saw in 23. Hey, Harlan, it's Brad. On the relative reform, we do feel pretty good about the performance overall when you think about how much legacy business was in the year and how the leading edge fell off, which typically drives higher process control intensity. Also, in WFE this year, it was a little unique in that there was a lot of carryover WFE from 2022 for a number of peers. And so that showed up in 23, but it was really you know, activity that we started in 2022. So when you take into account those factors and look at how well we performed in 22 relative to the overall market where we were, our growth rate was 4x what the market was. The fact that we're mostly, I think, in line, maybe a little bit better than the overall market in 23 is, I think, a pretty good indicator of the growing process control intensity that we're excited about here at KLA.
spk09: Thank you. Our next question will come from Joe Quattrochi with Wells Fargo.
spk02: Thanks for taking the question. I just want to go back to the push out. So just so I understand, if we were to adjust for the couple hundred million that's now pushed into the June quarter and assumed it was still in the March quarter, I guess, would you still expect that the June quarter would be up quarter over quarter? Or would it be more flash like we were thinking or talking about, you know, last quarter of just the first half kind of still being a similar run rate of the business?
spk03: Yeah, I think it's more the latter, right? Obviously, you've got a lot of moving parts and how it affects the quarters. But as we talked about last quarter, we saw the business generally continuing at guided level. Guided was 2.4, 5.0, right? We ended up outperforming by $40 million or so. So it would have been probably flattish, more or less. Um, but but this adjustment coming out obviously, you know, has has the kind of impact and I sized it earlier. So flattish and then we would expect to see the second half start to improve a little bit out of this couple.
spk02: And then just as a follow up, I know you're gonna you'll file your 10 Q probably tomorrow, but any color on where the RPO stood exiting the core.
spk03: Yeah, so RPO was down about 200 million. expected you to ask that question joe um so yeah 200 million quarter to quarter and uh with about 50 percent so that takes you to about 10.6 billion dollars 45 to 50 percent of it to ship beyond 12 months and then within that we have about just short of 800 million in customer deposits thank you our next question comes from cj muse with canter fitzgerald
spk05: Yeah, good afternoon. Thanks for taking the question. I guess first question, can you speak to domestic China? And I guess, you know, to what degree 23 was helped by bear wafer and reticle inspection and your thoughts on how that progresses in 24? And I guess with next shift, to perhaps maybe incrementally more DRAM and, I don't know, in terms of the really core legacy, some shifts there, how you're seeing your kind of implied markets here at 24 versus 23?
spk03: So for China, CJ, I think overall for China, it looks pretty flattish year to year. We did benefit from the infrastructure investment that I talked a lot about over the course of the last year or so. I would expect that part of the business to come down some as some of the digestion is happening, more so on the wafer side than the reticle side. And so that obviously will get made up by what I would expect to be, you know, slightly higher foundry. I think the memory piece will shift. to potentially shift to another customer. So I could see that being slashed overall. So I feel pretty good about the trajectory of China. There is some lumpiness given our ASPs, but I think through the year, it'll be relatively consistent across the quarters, notwithstanding the timing of certain fab projects and construction schedules complete and so on. And then I think we'll start to see the percent come down as we move into the second half as you see other customers drive our expected growth as we move through the second half of the year. What was the second part of the question?
spk05: No, you covered it. I guess for my follow-up, as you think about kind of second half stronger than first half, how would you kind of rank order leading edge foundry logic versus DRAM in terms of the key drivers for you?
spk03: I think leading edge will be, you know, we'll see some growth in the year. It'll be, I think, you know, fairly modest growth as we continue through the year here. I would say, I'm just kind of looking quickly here. I would say that it is reasonably balanced across the year. So I would think that we'll see, you know, I would expect to see, you know, DRAM probably be a Actually, I think it's going to be pretty balanced as well from a leading-edge DRAM point of view. So I think it's pretty balanced on both fronts. And then just ticking up a little bit as you move into the second half.
spk05: Thank you.
spk09: Our next question will come from Krish Sankar with TD Cowan.
spk07: Hi. Thanks for taking the question. I have two of them, too. One is I was just kind of curious about If you can kind of give color how to think about China revenues this year ex-EPC.
spk03: Well, Brent just covered that in the last question, but essentially flattish. I mean, that's the general view for China this year. Flattish, a little less infrastructure than we saw, especially in wafer. Radical continues to remain reasonably bubble at this current run rate.
spk07: Got it, got it. And then just as a quick follow-up, you know, if I look at kind of like value optical inspection, and you said that, you know, revenue should start improving over time, where is the lead times today for them today versus, let's say, three months or six months ago, and where do you expect them to go, you know, over the next few months?
spk03: Yeah, I'll start on that one. On optical inspection, so we're still constrained on Gen 4 in terms of demand relative to our supply. I would expect to see supply increase this year, and that's part of our business. I would expect it to do better than overall market as we move into 24. We have right now, I think we've seen some normalization around Gen 5 lead times, which tend to be you know, somewhere between seven and nine months. The Gen 4 is still out over a year or so, but new capacity coming online. I think not enough for what we expect over the next, you know, year to year and a half, but then we have another tranche of capacity that'll come online as we move into the 26 timeframe. So we feel pretty good about what we have in terms of overall capacity, both within the within KLA and our facilities, but also within our supply chain to support the growth that we expect as we move into 25 with more meaningful WFE growth, and then as we target the 2026 financial plan that we laid out back at our investor day in 22.
spk07: Thank you very much.
spk09: Our next question will come from Brian Chin with Siebel.
spk03: Hi there. Good afternoon. Thanks for letting us ask a few questions. Maybe just to – I think someone might have tried to ask this earlier in the queue, but, you know, taking your WFD sort of outlook for, you know, flat to modest based on your 23-base level, flat to modest growth this year, you know, relative to sort of the pickup and maybe your revenue and WFD being sort of in the second half, but kind of modest, right? You probably would need to see an acceleration in the back quarters of the year in order to kind of get to, say, you know, even towards the low to mid-single-digit kind of growth that you're talking about for WFE at the moment. So I'm kind of curious, do you see process control intensity, the type of profile spending this year, sort of neutral in terms of WFE? Do you think intensity is higher or lower relative to, again, that profile spending this year? And then how does that reflect in your revenues? yeah no you're right in terms of the math right as we look at the first half of this year which is we'll call maybe you know slightly down versus the second half of 23 and then an acceleration of the second half which puts you somewhere in the you know i'll call it high single digit growth that assumes that that wfe is is marginally up uh more or less from from uh from 2023. And so against that backdrop with slight improvement in memory, I would expect our process control intensity to be roughly flat. So we were in the seven, depending on your WFE number, but assuming 87 to 88 billion in WFE in 23, about 7.6% or so. So I would expect it to be similar as we move into 24. and as we expect to see you know more more growth and leading edge investment as we move into 25 then we'll start to see you know favorability in terms of leading edge dynamics that tend to drive our business and higher process control intensity uh overall so i think that's how i think about it right now okay thanks and then just given that emphasis emphasis this year on memory conversions and upgrade activity
spk06: Can you comment on the areas where KOA benefits and also how meaningful a benefit this sort of spending represents?
spk03: You mean in terms of just where we benefit in memory investment or what we expect to see? I mean, certainly you've got the, you know, in DRAM with more DRAM investment. With the introduction of EUV, that's tended to be a positive dynamic for our business. We saw process control intensity increase as we saw EUV introduced into DRAM. So that's probably one of the bigger positives for us. So you're right, as you start to do technology conversions, instead of new capacity of being a little bit more muted investment, but we would expect to see our customers continue to invest in their leading edge development for the next nodes. And so I think that will be the biggest driver for our business. Thank you.
spk09: Our next question will come from Chris Caso with Wolf Research.
spk03: Yes, thank you. Good evening. I guess the first question is, you know, kind of looking beyond the 2024, and obviously you don't expect you to provide any guidance there, but take any opinion that you have. You know, some of the other equipment suppliers that have had longer lead times were starting to express a little more confidence on, you know, a turn on 25. Uh, you know, I don't expect that you've seen that in your order book yet, but interested to see what your customers may be talking about. Uh, it's a great question and we have definitely had those conversations. I think that know customers are looking at from a couple perspectives one we we do have long lead on the most advanced optical tools but there's also a lot of development that we're doing right now to make those tools even better for the advanced logic ramps that are coming so we're actually engaged quite a bit in r d and in pilot with those customers so we have a pretty good sense They're all bullish about 25. I can't think of a customer we have on the leading edge that isn't bullish about 25. But as you say, we're not going to see the orders for those yet, but we're certainly having those conversations. But more importantly, we're seeing the discussions happen around capability that we're demonstrating as they do pilot. The other thing is we're seeing a trend toward more designs. And we talked about this for the past several years. One of the leading indicators for us is the advanced designs, because that's an indicator of how broad a node is going to be. And we're seeing that continue, and that will drive both radical business but also is a good leading indicator for the strength at 25. That's why, you know, one of the objectives for the company is to prepare for growth and leading edge because that's what we believe will happen over the next 24 months. As Brent indicated, not the next six months. We should start to see the green shoots of that toward the end of the year, and then we'll see it in 25 is the way we're modeling the business and our investment right now. got it that's very helpful um as a startup with regard to the the foundry logic business would you characterize and i guess what you talked about new wfe assumptions is some kind of slight growth this year uh is it safe to say that that growth is either tied to you know new node deployments and kind of technology upgrades and such as opposed to you know capacity at this point It's a little bit of capacity, too. I mean, you know, 2023 was down, right? And so we're seeing some expansion of capacity. The big node ramps aren't really happening as much this year, which is part of why the WFE gets driven up. And you heard TSM's call, and I think, you know, they're fairly bullish on their forecast, but we'd have to see what happens in the early parts of 2025 for those ramps on especially the newest technologies. And we would expect the legacy business non-China to be lower in 24 than 23. So it's being offset. You've got some improvement with the leading edge investment offset by some of the non-China legacy falling off a bit. So that's how we get to our forecast. And we'll see as we start today. We're having these conversations with customers. We're certainly planning for it from a capacity point of view, and we'll see as we progress through the year, as we start to firm up when those shipments will actually start to take place.
spk09: Thank you. Our next question comes from Joe Moore with Morgan Stanley.
spk04: Great. Thank you. You talked about memory utilization remaining low, and I guess I feel like you guys kind of talked about that relatively early, and then you saw it kind of static. We've heard for memory customers, all kinds of things about different times that they brought it down. It's like someone brought it up. I just want to confirm that you're seeing that as kind of a steady trend. And then can you talk about how that affects the services revenue you can get from those guys?
spk03: Yes, but having met with a number of memory customers recently, there's a marked difference in their tone right now. And so when we talked to them last year, There was a lot of downcast looks about them because they had been ready for a much bigger consumption of memory. And now I think they're starting to turn the corner on that. We do see conversion technology, but utilization hasn't really changed much. Service continues to be higher than historically. Our utilization rates on our equipment are higher than historically. because I think customers, even those that have the ability to flex down their utilization on our systems, have chosen not to. And so that's been a real strength for us, and why services for KLA did so well in 23, and we expect that growth to resume to the numbers we targeted a couple years ago for 24 and beyond. So I'd say the posture is different, and we expect to see that continue to strengthen throughout the year. Yeah, the customers don't have the same level of redundancy with what they buy from KLA versus a lot of process equipment. And when you're focused on trying to be as efficient with your capital as you can, you'll tend to really focus on trying to drive yield. So the way they buy process control, they don't buy a lot of extras. So if they take capacity offline for process, they tend to run process control much more consistently. The customers that cut more in terms of utilization earlier have come back more. I think overall, to Rick's statement, it's been fairly flat overall. DRAMs tightened a bit because of some of the AI drivers for that. But on the flash side, I think it's been fairly stable. And like I said, some improvement from folks who cut more aggressively early on.
spk06: Thank you very much.
spk09: Our next question will come from Atif Malik with Citi.
spk01: Hi, thank you for taking my question. And then you talked about strategic alternatives for the display business. Can you help us out how big the display business was last year? And then in general, on the EPC business, there are kind of auto, it's starting to, mobility is getting better. Can you just talk about how you're looking at the EPC business excluding display?
spk03: You're breaking up a little bit there. So in regards to the comments on display, it's about one and a half percent of the revenue of the company. And there are parts of display that are more commodity-based, and there's aspects of that industry structurally where profitability is more challenged. And then there's some interesting parts of it, too, in terms of some of the future roadmap opportunities and where some of the higher-end customers customers are moving so we'll have more to say about that as we as we assess the alternatives we're considering the rest of ETC is kind of a tale of two businesses overall the especially semiconductor business is done exceptionally well as we talked about in the in the shareholder letter really outperforming WFE overall I think it's a combination of customer engagement, more applications, new products. So we're really pleased with where we're performing there and the ability to differentiate. And I would expect that to be roughly flat and with some big shift. It has some diversity in terms of end markets between automotive markets. and mobile and advanced packaging. So you could see a shift where automotive weekends will see more investment on the advanced packaging side. So we're pretty positive on that. ICOs, we're already starting to see some improvement there, which tends to be a little bit of a leading indicator in terms of finished components. And so we're more optimistic about how that will translate back into the other parts of our business, given that that's a short lead time, more capacity-centric business. So again, back to our views of some improvement as we move into the second half. PCB has been more mobile-centric in terms of more consumer markets, more capacity-centric. So that business has been weaker, but I would expect it to be a little bit better this year as well. And there are some product offerings that we have coming that start to take advantage of opportunities at high-end PCB and substrates as those integrate into heterogeneous packages. So we expect The APC business overall to be up, we'll call it, you know, maybe high single digits, a little less lead time over there, so a little harder to forecast off of the year we had in 2023.
spk01: Great. And then as my follow-up, Rick, you talked about uncertainty and needing edge with some push-outs. If your foundry customers decide to focus more in putting these investment of fabs in Japan versus U.S.? Is there an impact to your business?
spk03: Well, the work that they're doing in Japan is not at the leading edge, but it is part of their overall investment. with the exception of the Japanese company that's investing there. So I would say, yes, of course, that's a different kind of business for us. It's important. But the leading-edge business that's being done in the foundries isn't being done there right now, with the exception of one. So we're talking about what we're seeing and hearing is the development is going on. for the leading edge work. The question is, at what point will they be in a position to ramp that? So the reason we're confident of the growth that's coming is because of the engagements we've had, the design starts that we see, and the plans that we know that they've been discussing. So we feel pretty good about the setup as we go toward the end of the year and into next year. Thank you.
spk09: Our next question will come from Charles Shi with Needham.
spk03: Thanks. First off, I really just want to ask for some clarification about the service business expectation for calendar 2024. I think you talked about higher forecasted growth in service. Is it higher than what you thought at the top to 14% this year, or are you just talking about higher growth than compared with your systems business?
spk02: Just a quick clarification. Thanks.
spk03: Yeah, more in line with the long-term target model of 12% to 14% and closer to the high end of the target range. And that's really being driven by, we talked about some of the improving utilizations that we expect to see as we move through the year, which if you think about our customers, their businesses get better. They have more demand. They start to consume the capacity they have. They have sustainability in that. And then as their profitability improves, then they start to invest in new equipment. So we would expect to see that play through as we move through the year. But we also will start to benefit from the tools that we shipped in 2021 and 2022 as they move from warranty into contract. And so that should be a driver for service growth as we move into next year. So we'll be back in line with the overall target model in terms of how we're planning for the business next year. The great thing about service is this growth that happens pretty continuously. It does have a little bit of a dilutive effect on our overall margins, which is one of the factors in the 24 gross margin colors that I provided. So even if we would expect to see revenue increase a bit, I do think that you'll see a little bit of pressure on margins. Now, it tends to be, based on the way we do the accounting, accretive to operating margins. So at that level, it's pretty positive, but it does have an effect on the puts and takes within gross margins. Thanks, Brent. Maybe another question, maybe a little bit longer term. I think in the past you've talked about particularly some of your leading edge customers reusing their capacity in the past and may put a little bit of pressure a few cycles ago on your overall growth. Your largest customer, I think, last week talked about maybe converting some of the 5 nanometer to 3 nanometer.
spk01: We don't know whether they're going to continue to do that. But any thoughts there? And looking a little bit ahead, do you expect any sort of a negative impact going forward? Thanks.
spk03: You're right. I mean, historically, customers have always tried to reuse whatever they could. There's a couple of factors that impacted going forward. One is the technology that they're going to need for three and then for two is upgraded from what they have at five. And the second one is they still have volume at five. So the question will be, historically, when this was the most pronounced was when there was a great fall off at an existing node going to a new node. So in our conversations with them and our modeling of it, we see it pretty consistent from what we've seen in the last few years, not as high as the reuse was several years ago. But that factor drives us to continuously provide more capability in the tool to give them incentive to go to the new technology or to upgrade the existing. So there's nothing specifically new about this upcoming tool. next generation of new technology. But it is definitely something customers are always trying to optimize their footprint.
spk09: Thank you. Our next question will come from Timothy Arcuri with UBS.
spk06: Brent, I wanted to ask about book-to-bill. So it's below one for the fifth quarter in a row. It's up a little bit. It's up to like 0.9%. So you're reaching some sort of like steady state. But it's a much different dynamic, what's sitting in RPO than what used to sit in backlog, because you used to have four to five months with the backlog. And now, you know, if you assume half of the stuff is parked outside of 12 months and half is inside of 12 months, I mean, it's not, I guess, that different than it was before. But you still have this, you know, $5 billion plus that's parked beyond 12 months. And that was never there before. So as we look pre-COVID and post-COVID, what changed? Why is there this $5 billion worth of bookings or RPOs just parked beyond 12 months? Because it isn't like your lead times have gone out that far. And I understand that Litho's long lead times, but Litho's always been long lead times. So what's kind of changed for you?
spk03: Yeah, I think the easiest way to think about that part of it is it's related to customers giving orders that are tied to facilities that they're planning, Greenfield projects. And so the schedules are driving the orders. And so it's one of those where it isn't lead time centric. It's, you know, the customer has a project that's going to open in 25. They want their tools when they have that scheduled planned opening. And so they've given us orders. In a lot of cases, you have some China business where you've given us orders and deposits that are tied to those schedules. So that's the biggest factor in the piece that's out. And you're right, it is a bit of a new phenomenon, I think, that we started to see after the massive ramp that we saw from 19 to 22 or so. And each quarter, it's been pretty consistent. And we've been picking up a certain amount of that backlog every quarter, but it's been pretty consistent, and it's been roughly 50% or so. So in the quarter we just completed, if you notice, if you look at the balance sheet, you'll see the deferred systems revenue is actually a little bit higher, and that's related to the dynamic I talked about earlier where shipments were higher than revenue levels, and that drove down the – the RPO, but the book to bill relative to the revenue was actually positive. But I don't think that changes the nature of your question in terms of the trend line. It was a little bit better. It's kind of consistent with what we thought and a little bit positive in the December quarter.
spk06: Yeah, yeah. I mean, it was up, definitely. But I guess just my follow-up on that is, what's the advantage? If I'm that customer, and if your lead times are well inside of that, what's the advantage if I'm a Chinese customer to booking something that's going to sit in your... backlog or, you know, be like parking on 12 months. I mean, unless I'm worried about export control, and maybe I think because I have something I've given you a down payment that entitles me to get the tool, like is that part of it? I still don't know why I would, you know, park something like way, way beyond your, your lead times.
spk03: Well, if you're a new customer and you have new relationships with us, the demonstration of credibility in terms of, hey, we want this, we want to engage, we want you to put resources in place to support the FAP, and that takes some time to do so. And then in a lot of cases, that also comes with deposits for a portion of the orders. So I think it comes down to, if you're one of those customers, you want to ensure that when your fab opens, that this isn't a bottleneck or an obstacle to your ramp and your plan. And in a lot of cases, if they're newer customers to us, these aren't our, you know, I wouldn't say that the customers you know are booking orders that far in advance. But there are certain customers that want to make sure that we're prepared to support their plans. And so they give us orders to ensure that they're credible on those points.
spk06: Wow, that's a ton of customers that we've actually never heard of before. So, okay. Okay, Brent, thanks.
spk09: Our next question will come from Toshiya Hari with Goldman Sachs.
spk00: Hi. Thank you so much for taking the question. I have two as well. The first one is on high NA. There seems to be a bit of a disconnect among some of your customers in terms of, I guess, their appetite to take tools and to develop using those tools. Curious how you're thinking about potential insertion of high NA over the medium to long-term, and how should we think about the positive impact to your business from an intensity standpoint?
spk03: Our views haven't really changed in terms of the timing for high NA. You know, we're encouraged to see the shipments of the tools that were well publicized, and I think that's great. It is going to take a while, of course, with any new technology to get those up and into production. So really haven't changed in terms of our view of when that turns into pilot and then when it turns to the high volume. But one thing that's clear is the increased adoption of EUV is good for KLA. And the broadening of it, as we see it being more applicable in memory, also creates more opportunities, not only just in the reticle space, but because we're now dealing with the defectivity challenges are greater as they start printing smaller features, It drives both the number and intensity of the tools that we need, but also how they're run. So you need to run, for example, a BBP tool at a higher sensitivity, which as you know requires, you know, we keep adding capability, but it does require more capacity to cover the same amount of silicon to support that. So it's a very good trend for for process control and ones that were encouraged by. But from our standpoint, no change, which I guess is really good news because if we look back at EUV, it did delay several times. Hyena seems to be on track with the schedule that has been out there for some time now.
spk00: That's very helpful. Thank you. And then as my follow-up, maybe one for Brent, just on the display business, so 1.5% of revenue last year, I'm curious if you could speak to the profitability of that business. I mean, to the extent you do end up, say, selling the business, how should we think about accretion to gross margins and bottom-line earnings? Thank you.
spk03: Yeah, profitability is less than 1.5%. One and a half percent of KLA. So it's one and a half percent of revenue. The profitability is less than one and a half percent of KLA profitability.
spk00: Okay. I figured that much, but thank you.
spk09: As a reminder, that is star one to ask a question. All right, and we have no further questions in the queue, so I'll turn the floor back over to Kevin Kessel for any additional or closing remarks.
spk03: Thank you, Chelsea, and thank you again, everyone, for your time. We know it's a busy day of earnings, a busy week. We appreciate it. We'll be in touch with all of you over the coming days and weeks. And with that, I'll back you, Chelsea, to provide any final instructions. Thank you.
spk09: This concludes the KLA Corporation December quarter 2023 earnings call and webcast. Please disconnect your line at this time and have a wonderful day.
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