speaker
Conference Call Operator

Good afternoon, and welcome to Kestra Medical Technologies' fourth quarter fiscal 2025 earnings conference call. This conference call is being recorded for replay purposes. We will be facilitating a question and answer session following prepared remarks from management. At this time, all participants are in listen-only mode. I would now like to turn the call over to Neil Beloka, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

speaker
Neil Beloka
Vice President of Investor Relations

Thank you for joining Kestra's fourth quarter fiscal 2025 earnings call. With me today are Brian Webster, President and Chief Executive Officer, and Vasim Mebboub, Chief Financial Officer. This call includes forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Statements made on this call that do not relate to matters of historical fact should be considered forward-looking statements. These statements are based on Kestra's current expectations forecasts, and assumptions, which are subject to inherent uncertainties, risks, and assumptions that are difficult to predict. Actual outcomes and results could differ materially from any results, performance, or achievements expressed or implied by the forward-looking statements due to various factors. Please review Kestra's most recent filings with SEC, particularly the risk factors described in our registration statement on Form S-1 and the annual report we'll file later this week for additional information. Any forward-looking statements provided during this call, including projections of future performance, are based on management's expectations as of today. Kestra undertakes no obligation to update these statements except as required by applicable law. With that, I will turn the call over to Brian.

speaker
Brian Webster
President and Chief Executive Officer

Thanks, Neil. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us for today's conference call. We're calling in from Kirkland, Washington up in the great Pacific Northwest where we're enjoying about 86 degrees and summer, beautiful summer day. We're excited to discuss the details of our strong performance in the fourth quarter and significant progress Kestra made in 2025. Before we jump in, I'd like to share a patient story with you that demonstrates why the Kestra team is so passionate about our mission and the incredible impact our products and people have on the lives of patients. Recently, a 70-year-old woman from Missouri was discharged with our Assure system after being hospitalized for a myocardial infarction or heart attack. She was diagnosed with a low ejection fraction of about 25%. Ejection fraction is a measurement of cardiac output And anything below 40% is considered to be elevated risk. This patient wore the Assure system for over 23 hours per day for more than two months. This highlights the effectiveness of patient education at the time of fitting and the comfort of the Assure system. On day 66 of her wear, she experienced ventricular fibrillation or cardiac arrest. and received a life-saving shock from the Assure WCD. Within seconds, the shock activated our proprietary Assure Assist Service, which facilitated immediate connection to emergency care, enabling her to arrive at the emergency department within minutes. Following the shock, rapid transmission of her clinical data enabled timely medical intervention, demonstrating how the cardiac recovery system and care teams work seamlessly together to improve patient outcomes. She subsequently received an implantable cardioverter defibrillator, or ICD, to provide long-term protection against cardiac arrest. Her provider said it best. She's alive today because everyone played their part, the team, the technology, and the patient herself. This is just one patient's story. In fiscal year 2025, our cardiac recovery system was used to protect thousands of patients at risk of sudden cardiac arrest. We remain thankful and humbled by this responsibility entrusted to us by the prescribers, their patients, and their families. With that, I would now like to turn to our recent performance. In the fourth quarter, we continued to reach more patients at risk of cardiac arrest. generating over 3,900 prescriptions for the Assure system, an increase of 43% year-over-year. Our revenue accelerated in the fourth quarter with Kester generating revenue of $17.2 million, an increase of 71% compared to the prior year period. Our reported revenue continues to track ahead of our prescription growth, reflecting the tailwind of higher in-network patient mix. Continued improvements in revenue per fitting and reductions in cost per fit from volume leverage drove the sixth quarter in a row of gross margin expansion. Fourth quarter fiscal 25 gross margin was 44.3% compared to 13.9% in the prior year. In fiscal year 25, gross margin was 40.5% compared to just 1.3% in fiscal year 24. We expect continued improvement in fiscal year 2026 and remain confident that Kester is on the path to 70% plus gross margin over the next few years. With the strong revenue growth that Kester is generating, we are seeing nice operating leverage in our business. This growing leverage supports the investments we are making in the company's key growth drivers to take advantage of the large and attractive market opportunity that we see. The investments that we believe will drive significant near and long-term value for Kestra include expanding our commercial team, enhancing our revenue cycle management capabilities, growing our fleet of devices, innovating to extend our product advantages and growing the body of clinical evidence supporting the Assure system. First, we continue to expand our sales organization with the goal of further penetrating existing accounts and also calling on new potential Assure prescribers. We are targeting geographies in which a high volume of WCD prescriptions are being written and where we also have strong in-network payer coverage. At the end of fiscal year 25, we had approximately 80 sales territories, up about 67% from the prior year period. This was consistent with our plan. As we have previously discussed, we expect to nearly double the sales coverage over the next few years. Second, we continue to make progress in improving our RCM capabilities while also bringing more payers in network. Covered lives for the Assure system now totals more than 285 million health plan members in the United States. Of note, we recently signed an important sole source contract with a risk-bearing provider network, which is evidence that both payers and prescribers recognize the differentiated benefit of the Assure system. We are pleased to see the steady convergence of covered lives nationally and actual sales territory in-network patient mix, which positively impacts all the revenue cycle management metrics. Third, as you know, we utilize a leased business model. When a patient's wear time is concluded, the Assure devices return for reprocessing and reintroduction into Kestra's distribution system. Our substantial investment in our fleet of devices each with a capacity for approximately three patient wares per year, enables the business to scale with our attractive unit economic profile. While our current asset pool can support our near-term business objectives, we will keep adding to the fleet at a measured pace as we scale the business. Fourth, the operating leverage that we are generating continues to support our goal of continuous innovation. Our invention engine remains robust and we now own over 365 patent assets. On the product development front, our team has some exciting projects in flight to further extend our clinical advantage with the performance of the Assure system and also bring first in category new therapeutic capabilities to the market. Finally, we are continuing to build the body of clinical evidence supporting the safety, efficacy, and benefits of the Assure system. As of April 30th, we have enrolled over 20,000 patients, and real-world findings are providing further validation of the results of our pivotal trials. Our most recent FDA submission from the study reported first shock conversion efficacy of approximately 96%, and a false alarm rate of only 6%. This extremely low false alarm rate compares very favorably to the 46% rate reported by the competitor's device. This has contributed to a median daily use of 23.2 hours per day for patients, clearly demonstrating high patient compliance. Our post-approval study is expected to be completed this summer. We will share those results in the fall and expect that our registry study will generate a steady cadence of clinical publications over the following quarters. All of these initiatives further our mission of protecting even more patients that are at risk of cardiac arrest. Despite the overwhelming evidence that a defibrillation shock is effective at terminating dangerous cardiac rhythms, WCD therapy remains underutilized. reaching just 14% of the eligible US patient population of 850,000 patients annually. That means six out of seven patients that are indicated for WCD are not being protected by one. We believe that the low prescription rate for WCD therapy is due in part to the limitations of the incumbent commercially available device. The Assure system was purpose-built to enhance patient comfort and compliance and directly address the key barriers to adoption associated with the incumbent's device. What the science shows about WCDs is that if a patient wears the device and they experience a serious cardiac event, like a ventricular event, clinical outcomes are compelling and many lives are saved. With that in mind, the feedback from physicians and their patients on the Assure system continues to be overwhelmingly positive. Importantly, as more physicians have positive experiences with our system and our people, we are seeing examples of the market expanding at accounts that have converted to Kestrel. I would like to highlight one such market expansion study. At the start of fiscal year 2024, two regional hospitals within a large integrated health system in the Midwest had little to no adoption of WCDs. Most clinicians discharged elevated risk patients without protection. Across both sides, awareness of WCD benefits and guideline-directed use was limited, and WCDs were not embedded in the care pathways. One hospital within the network had no Assure patients in fiscal year 2024. Providers were largely unaware of updated clinical evidence and existing guidelines and therefore continued to rely on outdated methods of protecting their patients. Through focused education, in-service support, and streamlined coordination with case management and EMR teams, Kestra helped shift clinical behavior. Within a year, that hospital had placed 74 patients on Assure, and we now hold approximately 90% market share in that account. At a nearby hospital in the same network, we applied the same strategy. Patient volume rose from just six WCDs prescribed in fiscal year 2024 to 52 in fiscal 2025. As you can see, within 12 months, both hospitals transitioned from under-utilization to establishing a WCD protocol with the Assure system as the preferred solution. It's important to note that these weren't just simple market share conversions. These were patients who in prior years would have gone home without protection. Today, we are extending their care into the home. This is how market expansion is happening. Our teams are changing mindsets, embedding best practices, and enhancing the standard of care across systems and regions. This is just one example, but one that gives us a glimpse of the market expansion potential. There are multiple other health systems across the country where we are seeing a similar pattern. In conclusion, we are well positioned to take the next steps towards our goal of making the Assure system the standard of care for patients at risk of sudden cardiac arrest. We are seeing strong execution across all elements of our business, and the foundation we have built has positioned Kestra for strong growth in fiscal year 2026 and beyond. I would like to thank our incredible team out in the field and here at our home office in Kirkland for their passion and commitment to the Kestra mission. I will now turn it over to my partner, Vasim, who will discuss fourth quarter financial results in more detail and also provide our fiscal year 2026 revenue outlook. Vasim?

speaker
Vasim Mebboub
Chief Financial Officer

Thank you, Brian, and good afternoon, everyone. As Brian noted, total revenue was $17.2 million in the fourth quarter, an increase of 71% compared to the prior year period. revenue growth was driven by a 43% year-over-year increase in prescriptions, reflecting market share gains with existing customers and activation of new accounts. For fiscal year 2025, total revenue was $59.8 million, an increase of 115% compared to fiscal year 2024. In both the fourth quarter and in fiscal year 2025, revenue growth continued to benefit from a higher mix of in-network patients and improvements in our rev cycle management capabilities. Gross margin was 44.3% in the fourth quarter compared to 13.9% in the prior year period. For fiscal year 2025, gross margins improved from 240.5% from 1.3% in fiscal year 2024. The significant expansion in gross margin was driven by a higher revenue per fit from more in-network patients and a lower cost per fit from volume leverage and cost improvement programs. In the fourth quarter, our revenue conversion rate of 44.8% reflected improvements in all three key drivers of our conversion rate, our prescription fill rate, our bill rate, and our collections performance. For fiscal year 2025, our revenue conversion rate was 46.8% and adjusted for one-time items it was 44.1%. This compares to 38.4% in fiscal year 2024. We know competitive bidding has been a topic of conversation in MedTech due to a recent Medicare proposal. We would like to remind you that the Assure system is a Class III medical device, and as such, is not subject to competitive bidding. Moving on, gap operating expenses were $55.8 million in the fourth quarter and included $22.3 million of stock-based compensation expense and $3.8 million of professional services expenses related to the company's IPO. Stock-based compensation expense of $22.3 million in the fourth quarter included the non-recurring impact of two organizational items at the time of our IPO in March. First, we recognized the impact of accelerated vesting of incentive units as cash flow transition from a privately held company to being a public company. And second, the issuance of stock options to company team members. Excluding stock-based compensation and professional services expenses related to the IPO, operating expenses were $29.7 million in the fourth quarter compared to $21.4 million in the prior year period. The increase was primarily attributable to growth in commercial and revenue cycle resources. For fiscal year 2025, we reported GAAP operating expense of $130.6 million, which included $24.3 million of stock-based compensation expense. Excluding stock-based compensation and professional services expenses related to the IPO, operating expenses were $100.6 million in fiscal year 2025, compared to $83.9 million in fiscal year 2024. With Kestrel's transition to operating as a public company and in line with standard public company compensation frameworks, we expect SOB-based compensation to contribute approximately $40 million to GAAP operating expenses in fiscal year 2026. GAAP net loss was $51.1 million in the fourth quarter compared to GAAP net loss of $22.3 million in the prior year period. Adjusted EBITDA loss was $20.3 million in the fourth quarter compared to an adjusted EBITDA loss of $16.5 million in the prior year periods. For fiscal year 2025, GAAP net loss was $113.8 million compared to GAAP net loss of $94.1 million in fiscal year 2024. Adjusted EBITDA loss was $68.4 million in fiscal year 2025. compared to an adjusted EBITDA loss of $72 million in fiscal year 2024. Cash and cash equivalents totaling $237.6 million as of April 30, 2025. I will now provide our fiscal year 2026 guidance. We expect revenue of $85 million and increase of 42% compared to fiscal year 2025. We expect prescription growth to be driven by a higher share of wallet with existing customers and activation of new accounts. We expect revenue to also benefit from continued improvements in our revenue cycle management capabilities driven by higher mix of in-network patients. As Brian discussed, we expect Kestra to generate significant operating leverage over the next several years even as we continue to invest in our business, to capitalize on the large and underpenetrated WCD market opportunity. With that, operator, we have concluded our prepared remarks and are ready to proceed to the Q&A portion of the call.

speaker
Conference Call Operator

Thank you. If you would like to ask a question, please press star 11 on your telephone. You will then hear an automated message, five from your hand is raised. If you would like to remove yourself from the queue, please press star 11 again. We ask that you please wait for your name and company to be announced before you proceed with your question. One moment while we compile the Q&A roster. Our first question of the day will come from the line of Travis Feed of Bank of America.

speaker
Stephanie Piazzolla
Analyst, Bank of America

Please go ahead. Hi, this is Stephanie Piazzolla. I'm for Travis. Thanks for taking the question and congrats on a good quarter and strong end to the year. I wanted to ask about the guidance for this year and if you could talk a little bit more about some of the underlying assumptions in the 85 million revenue guide and how we should think about some of those key assumptions like market growth and market share capture and commercial organization expansion and the conversion rate. Thanks.

speaker
Brian Webster
President and Chief Executive Officer

Thanks, Stephanie. This is Brian. In response to that, I would say that the key drivers that build our revenue model include our sales territory productivity improvements, our sales territory expansion plans, as well as further penetration of existing accounts and getting into additional new accounts on the market, as well as also the the further expansion of our in-network payer metrics. So I'll turn over to Vasim who can talk in more specifics about some of the details of that. Yeah, thanks, Brian.

speaker
Vasim Mebboub
Chief Financial Officer

So Stephanie, our revenue growth, as Brian said, is historically being driven by the prescription oil growth and our mix of in-network patients, as we have talked about, and the improvements in the rev cycle capability. And we remain focused on those And all of those KPIs, as we have mentioned in the past and today, are all tracking in the right direction. We'll start the year with 80 sales territory, as Brian talked about in the prepared remarks, and then our conversion rates are going to gradually improve as we go through the year, and so will our network versus in-network mix. As you know, we are the only public company in the public domain, so we're not talking about the specifics on the individual assumptions, but those are the underpinnings for our revenue types.

speaker
Stephanie Piazzolla
Analyst, Bank of America

Thank you. That's helpful. And then maybe just one follow-up on the margin side. I know you're not guiding to gross margin, but maybe any color you could provide to help us think about the margin expansion potential this year as the existing vests get rented out more, and I guess just generally how you view the path for gross margin expansion and the visibility you have to it. Thanks again.

speaker
Brian Webster
President and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah. we continue to benefit from increasing volumes because the business model is certainly volume sensitive. And the further in network status of our patients as we expand our payer contracts continues to help us on the revenue per fit side of gross margin. On the cost side, It's largely around volume-related things and then various cost-improvement projects that we have executed over time, and now we're seeing the benefit of those as we flow through the P&L.

speaker
Conference Call Operator

Thank you. One moment for the next question.

speaker
Conference Call Operator

And our next question will be coming from the line of Michael Pollock of Wolf Research. Your line is open.

speaker
Michael Pollock
Analyst, Wolf Research

Good afternoon. Thank you for taking the question. Brian, I want to follow up on one of the things you mentioned in your script. You said you want a sole source contract with a risk-bearing provider network. Can you talk more about, you know, is this special? If so, why the customer made this decision? Why the customer didn't want to dual source? And to what extent this could be emblematic of emerging trend in the market?

speaker
Brian Webster
President and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, thanks, Mike, for the question. And by the way, congratulations there, Daddy. Thank you. Yeah, I think the... I think it's too early to say that it is emblematic of what we can expect in the future, but it certainly is a good sign. This particular provider network, because they are integrated, they want to leverage the solution that we have that gives them the ability to manage patients more effectively, specifically around timelines for how effectively they can clear the beds up once the care has been switched over to Kestra so we can get the patient out of the hospital, we can get them home where we're monitoring that patient on the benefit of that provider. Also, they're very interested in understanding what the the rate of patients coming back into the hospital are for these kind of situations. And so the fact that we're monitoring them gives them a better handle on that. On the flow side for us, having an agreement like that gives us the ability to have revenue cycle management really high efficiency there because things like the prior authorization processes and things like that just go a lot smoother when you have that kind of an arrangement. So it's a good sign for sure. It's a sign that that provider, you know, voted on the Kestra side and is going to try and work with us to develop a really exciting program for how they manage these kind of patients.

speaker
Michael Pollock
Analyst, Wolf Research

Can I ask one for Vasim on the guidance? Just obviously have an unusual quarter and fiscal year end, and we're all getting to know one another. Like you're addressing for growth. You're adding a bunch of territories that will kind of, in theory, power through seasonality. But what's the base case for underlying seasonality as we roll through your fiscal year? Any phasing considerations on revenue or performance that we should keep in mind as we look at the models again tonight? Thank you.

speaker
Vasim Mebboub
Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, and thanks, Mike. I think, you know, from our perspective, I think the prescriptions, you know, in terms of our growth rate, you know, we're saying we're going to grow our prescriptions on average 40% for every quarter as we head into fiscal year 2026. And then in terms of the phasing, there's always a timing component to, you know, when we actually do the phasings and when we actually convert that into cash. And, you know, as we have said, the conversion rate is the best indicator for, you know, how that can convert to revenue. And we'll see higher conversion rates in the first half of the year and lower conversion rates in the second half of the year.

speaker
Conference Call Operator

That's how the business is built from a seasonality perspective. Thank you. One moment for the next question.

speaker
Conference Call Operator

And our next question will be coming from the line of Matthew O'Brien of Piper Sandler. Your line is open.

speaker
Matthew O'Brien
Analyst, Piper Sandler

Great. Thanks for taking the questions. I guess There's two things that they kind of stand out. Um, I think from this print, that'll probably get attention tomorrow. The first one being on the guide side. And I know, you know, early earlier stage IPO company, you want to be conservative with things, but if I look at the absolute growth in dollars year over year, 25 was about $32 million. And, you know, you're guiding to about 25 million in 26 fiscal. And that's with, you know, improved conversion rates of bigger Salesforce, et cetera. So that, you know, absolute deceleration probably is going to get some attention. You know, is there anything competitive response-wise, et cetera, to really call out as far as why on an absolute basis it would be even better in fiscal 26 versus 25? And then I have a follow-up.

speaker
Brian Webster
President and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, thanks for the question, Matt. I think when it comes to the competitive response, There's nothing unusual going on there. I think what you're seeing is a company getting its footing a little bit in the new environment. And I think from the competitive response perspective, they're doing the things that you would expect them to do as they try and defend what was previously a long-term monopoly. But nothing out of the ordinary. I think we're doing some blocking and tackling now. We're trying to execute to our business plan. We're trying to lay the foundation for a strong and consistent execution as we move forward. That's really at the heart of it. Masim, any other comments?

speaker
Vasim Mebboub
Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, and I think, Matt, if you remember, we talked extensively about this as part of the IPO and in conversations since then with investors. The fact that we were at those 48 territory managers that we talked about at the end of fiscal year 2024, and the fact that we were in cash transmission mode, we have added reps in the second half of last year. And if you remember, we actually very clearly talked about as those reps are scaling up, and this is the timeframe in the first half of the year when they really ramp up and start contributing. They already are contributing in a very nice manner. It's just the normal scaling up and the territory ramp up that we have talked about in the past that's really driving the guidance. There's absolutely no change in the model, if you will, or the assumptions in the model that will lead you to believe that there's a slowdown or any issue. So we feel really excited about the quality of the talent they're bringing in and the fact that we're actually able to fill them so quickly is a testament to, again, the say-do of the company from the past.

speaker
Matthew O'Brien
Analyst, Piper Sandler

Got it. Thanks for that. And then the same as questions for you. You know, you beat by my model anyway by about 10% here in fiscal Q4. Nice to see gross margin lift here a little bit. Would have expected, I think, a little higher improvement in the gross margin side. I don't know if there was extra expediting cost you encountered here in Q4. But can you talk a little bit about why that metric wasn't better? And then the EBITDA number as well. on an adjusted basis wasn't what I was modeling as a little bit worse on a loss basis. So anything else just one time there to call out? Anything changing in terms of cost structure of the business to think about in fiscal 26?

speaker
Vasim Mebboub
Chief Financial Officer

Thanks. So on the top line, first of all, you know, starting the cost side, no, I mean, there's no fundamental change. We did come in slightly higher on the OPEC side, and I think that's a combination of two things. We are making the transition to a public company, so we did see slightly higher professional fees related to accounting, legal, and just general public company costs. And then the second one is we have brought in a new chief commercial officer, and he's making some investments and some enhancements to the leadership within the commercial organization that's going to drive a little bit for higher run rate on OPEC. So there's... Those are investments that you want us to see. We oversized an IPO and raised an extra bit of cash, and we are just starting to deploy that in a very intentional and deliberate manner. On the growth smart inside, remember, this is something that we have said, and we try to do as much messaging as possible. The revenue side of the business is driven by all of the conversion rate dynamics, the fill rate, the bill rate, and obviously the revenue cycle management performance. but the cost is really driven by fittings. So there's always going to be a timing delta map between when you see the revenue and when you start to see the fittings. So it's just purely a timing element on how the costs are running through the P&O. Got it.

speaker
Nathan Trey
Analyst, Wells Fargo

Very helpful. Thank you.

speaker
Conference Call Operator

Thank you. And one moment for the next question. Our next question will be coming from the line of David Roman of Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.

speaker
David Roman
Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Thank you, and good evening. I appreciate your taking the question here. Maybe we can start on the 44.8% conversion rate. You talked about some of the drivers there that lead from prescriptions to revenue, but maybe you could just unpack in a little bit more detail which of the factors you're seeing the most progress on here during the quarter, and as you look forward to which are the metrics you think you can influence the most, either through Salesforce expansion to getting the message out, clinical data that might drive greater adoption? Is it payer coverage? Maybe I'll just think about the bridge to what drives that 44.8% higher and which are the metrics you can most readily influence.

speaker
Vasim Mebboub
Chief Financial Officer

David, thanks for the question. And again, we've talked about the three elements of the conversion rate being one, the fill rate, which is the ability to convert that prescription into a fitting. And we've said that we are slightly better than our competitor, and there's not a big remarkable difference today, but I think over the long term with a more wearable solution, with a more comfortable solution, with less false alarms, we think we can make more progress than our competitor has. On the second bucket, which is really the ability to to convert that fitting into a claim for payment is really the single biggest driver of the conversion rate dynamic. And we have made great progress year over year, you know, on getting more patients in-network. And as we have said, you know, being in-network totally unlocks the rental business model. So that's really, in our mind, the single biggest area where we are focused on. And as we have said, even at your conference, We are very deliberate and intentional about where we are deploying these new territories. Not only are we looking at the prescription density, but we are also looking at insurance coverage within those territories and making sure that the reps are going into places where there's a high in-network payer coverage. And that will really help us bridge that gap between the numbers that we've seen in the past and we have not shared what that number is going to be. And then on the revenue cycle piece, listen, we're making the right investments. We're investing in the team and investing in the capability. And it's just process. So we're going to be able to close that gap soon. So overall, like I said, all three elements of our conversion rate are trending in the right direction. And we really feel confident about where we're going in fiscal year 2026 and beyond.

speaker
David Roman
Analyst, Goldman Sachs

And maybe just as a related follow-up and then one further question, is there a benchmark that you're willing to offer people on what best-in-class conversion rate would look like, whether that's the competitors or what you ultimately are aiming for. And then I know you talked about brought up competitive bidding as a topic, but would you be able at this point to offer any perspective on the ambulatory specialty model announcements from last night that look to provide increased focus on upstream diagnosis and early prevention and detection and whether that could be ultimately a reimbursement tailwind for Kestra that may not be fully contemplated in the outlook today or on a longer-term basis?

speaker
Vasim Mebboub
Chief Financial Officer

So, let me take the ZOL or the incumbent, you know, what we have and the best information. We know that, you know, like I said, the fill rates on the prescription are not dramatically different than ours. So, in that kind of 85% range, we have said this publicly. the results have been in the market for a very long time. And as we have said, there's about 3,600 pairs out there. So even they're not at 100% because there's always going to be some floods on the pair landscape. So we think that they're in that 95% range. And then on collections, you know, DME best in class is 95%. So when you do the math on that, David, you come out with a potential best in class conversion rate of 76%. And let me just remind you, Fiscal year 2026, we are expecting to be at 46.6%. So not only have we made good progress from where we were back in fiscal year 2024 at 38.4%, you know, we think it's the single biggest opportunity in front of us outside of all of the other commercial execution we got to do. So, Brian, you want to comment?

speaker
Brian Webster
President and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, I think, David, on your second question, it's a little early to sort of unpack what the real meaning of that announcement is going to be. But I will say that we believe that we're in a space and positioned really well for ambulatory patients. I mentioned our post-approval registry where we've got 20,000 patients where the data now, well, that's going to help us to do a better job of predicting and hopefully preventing some of these cardiac events that are out there now. And the fact that we're able to put our system on the patient, they go home, they wear it because they can tolerate it and they are willing to wear it, and then we can monitor them in concert with the hospital and be an extended part of the care team. I think that puts us in a really nice category and a really nice position. But it's really hard to say how you might think about that in terms of, you know, actual tailwind at this stage.

speaker
Conference Call Operator

Understood.

speaker
David Roman
Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Appreciate all the perspective.

speaker
Conference Call Operator

Thank you. One moment for the next question. And the next question is coming from the line. of Rick Wise of Stifel, the line is open.

speaker
Conference Call Operator

Hey, Rick. Did you call me?

speaker
Rick Wise
Analyst, Stifel

The line broke up. Do you hear me okay? Yeah, we can hear you. Okay, great. Just to stop, I was hoping or Brian, you could expand further on your comments. I think you said it several times about considerable operating leverage ahead. Obviously, Brian, I heard your commitment or recommitment to the 70% plus over the next few years. But you spent a little more on the OPEC side this quarter. Maybe help us better understand the key drivers of the operating leverage that when you say that language, what you're thinking about, what you would have us think about, but maybe help us better understand when we're going to see more of that, you know, clearly compelling operating leverage visibility.

speaker
Brian Webster
President and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah. I'll, start that and see if we can jump in. I think at the macro level, Rick, we've got a business model that is very volume sensitive. And as we increase volumes, we believe that those gross margins are going to expand. We think that gross margin expansion will occur at a rate along with revenue generation that allows us to, you know, be growing that top line at a much faster rate than we're growing the OPEX line, even though we're clearly making investments in OPEX, investments in the commercial team, as we've said consistently, as well as continuing investments in R&D and the red cycle management capabilities. So, You know, we think there's a really exciting opportunity to see the operating leverage of the business model. But, you know, the trick for us is going to be to how to feather that, right, so that we're making the investments in the future while also delivering, you know, the leverage that we want to that P&L. Can I hope to see any other comments?

speaker
Vasim Mebboub
Chief Financial Officer

You know, I think, Brian, I think we talked about the concept of leverage all the way down to P&L. And I think the... The prescriptions are going to be up 40%. Revenue is going to be up 42%. So that's kind of really the revenue cycle management improvements that we talked about going to drive at least to the top line. And then, you know, the gross margin numbers that you guys have already put in your models and with the consensus number, which we are, you know, at this point, blessing and saying, you know, we got very clear line of sight to those numbers and long-term 70%. To Brian's point, operating expenses is still growing a fraction of that top line number. So, you know, our OPEX for the year will be, you know, up in the 20% plus range. So when you're driving revenue at 40% plus and you're driving OPEX at 20% plus, we think that's pretty significant operating leverage.

speaker
Rick Wise
Analyst, Stifel

Gotcha. And, Brian, you highlighted innovation, continued innovation, and exciting products on TAP, I think you said, and you know, new products. Again, you said it several times. I feel like you're being a little more emphatic. Maybe I'm reading, hopefully, too much into it. But, you know, can you give us any incremental color on what we might see, when we might see it, and how we might, I mean, are these adjacent products or new generations or new generation of existing products? How should we think about that? innovation and the timing and the impact. Thank you.

speaker
Brian Webster
President and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, I appreciate that question as well, Rick. You know, we're being a little careful just for competitive reasons about the level of detail in the granularity that we're providing there. But, you know, I think from our perspective, we're thinking about the innovation engine in, number one, Job number one is to continue to extend the advantage that we have, the differentiation that we have today. So we have, I think, a really exciting work being done to do that. Then job number two is we have additional patient situations that we believe we can bring therapy to help and we can add more features and capability to the cardiac recovery system. And then job number three is really you know, how do you make sure that you're going to go and you're going to make yourself obsolete, right? And that's by coming out with next generation product and continuing that innovation cycle. So I think my message is really simple. It's that we're working on all those things and we're excited about what we have in the pipeline and And, you know, from our perspective, if we can drive more operating leverage and it gives us the ability to invest more, we'd be happy to do that because we have a great team of clinical people and engineers that really know how to innovate. That's great feedback. Thank you.

speaker
Conference Call Operator

Thank you. One moment for the next question. And our next question is coming from the line of Larry Beagleson of Wells Fargo. Your line is open.

speaker
Nathan Trey
Analyst, Wells Fargo

Hi, this is Nathan Trey back on for Larry. Just can you provide us with an update on your plans for running a randomized trial either in post-MI or heart failure?

speaker
Brian Webster
President and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, Nathan, thanks for the question. I don't think we've announced any plans for doing that at this point. What we've been pretty laser focused on is executing to the post-approval study, and you know, when you, I'm sure you can appreciate that, you know, 20,000 plus patients in a registry is a very significant amount of patients. And what we will do once we complete that study, which we intend to do over the next few months, is start to publish first and foremost the results out of that registry. And then those results will lead us to the publication strategy that we undertake beyond that. We have a really strong group of medical and clinical advisors that we're working very, very closely with and who are very anxious to advance the evidence for WCDs. I would say that we're also very interested in making sure that the folks that are looking at the guidelines, whether they be heart failure guidelines or the existing heart rhythm guidelines, that we are able to add our body of evidence to the existing body of evidence that's out there today and really put a compelling case forward for how we can improve the guidelines recommendations for this category. So we have a lot of work there. It's exciting work. We've got a lot of incredible people you know, data that we'll be leveraging to do that. And, you know, we think that's going to be an exciting area for us in the future.

speaker
Nathan Trey
Analyst, Wells Fargo

Great. And just for my follow-up, I know you talked about cadence for fiscal 26, but any finer point you could put on fiscal Q1, whether, you know, consensus numbers are kind of in line with, you know, your expectations for the quarter?

speaker
Vasim Mebboub
Chief Financial Officer

Thanks. Yeah, I think, Nathan, unfortunately, we don't provide quarterly guidance But at this point, I'd say is, you know, that again, I think Matt asked that question earlier. I go back to the messaging when back to the time of the IPO. We are working to ramp up the teams. There are reps that are scaling the territory that we have activated in the second half of last year. They're already starting to contribute, but at the same time, we had said then the first half is going to be slower than the second half because we're just giving those TMs and those territories time to start to deliver and put points on the board. But we're very comfortable with the numbers that are out there, and I think this guide just supplements that commentary. Thanks.

speaker
Conference Call Operator

Thank you. And there are no more questions in the queue. I would like to go ahead and turn the call back over to Brian Webster for closing remarks. Please go ahead.

speaker
Brian Webster
President and Chief Executive Officer

Okay. Well, thank you, everyone, for joining our fourth quarter fiscal year 25 earnings call. As you've heard on the call, we're excited about the strong close we have. It's a big year for Kestra. Executing an ITO is a heck of a way to distract an organization from executing on their business plan, and I'm really proud of the fact that Our team was able to really do both, to execute the IPO and also execute the business plan. 115% year-over-year growth is pretty fantastic, and we're looking forward to some exciting years ahead. So we'll look forward to getting everybody back up to speed on the next call. Thank you very much.

speaker
Conference Call Operator

This concludes today's conference call. You may all disconnect.

Disclaimer

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