5/12/2025

speaker
Chloe
Conference Operator

Good afternoon. My name is Chloe and I will be your conference operator today. At this time I would like to welcome everyone to the KBO Forum of Therapeutics first quarter 2025 financial results conference call. There will be a question and answer session to follow. Please be advised that this call is being recorded at the company's request. I would like to turn the call over to Brandon Strong, Senior Vice President Investor Relations and Corporate Communications. Thank you. Please go ahead.

speaker
Brandon Strong
Senior Vice President, Investor Relations and Corporate Communications

Thank you, Chloe. And thank you all for joining us on today's conference call to discuss CarioFarm's first quarter 2025 financial results and recent company progress. We issued a press release after the market closed detailing our financial results for the first quarter of 2025. This release, along with a slide presentation that we will reference during today, are available on our website. For today's call, as seen on slide two, I'm joined by Richard, Rejma, Sohania and Lori who will provide an update on our results for the first quarter of 2025 and review new data that we are sharing for the first time today in myelofibrosis. Before we begin our formal comments, I'll remind you that various remarks we will make today constitute forward-looking statements for purposes of the safe harbor provisions under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 as outlined on slide three. Actual results may differ materially from those indicated by these forward-looking statements as a result of various important factors, including those discussed in the risk factor section of our most recent form 10Q and 10K on file with the SEC and in other filings that we may make with the SEC in the future. Any forward-looking statements represent our views as of today only. While we may elect to update these forward-looking statements at some point in the future, we specifically disclaim any obligation to do so even if our views change. Therefore, you should not rely on these forward-looking statements as representing our views as of any later date. I'll now turn the call over to Richard. Please turn to slide four.

speaker
Richard Paulson
Chief Executive Officer

Thank you, Brandon, and thank you all for joining us today for CarioFarm's Q1 2025 earnings call. As we continue to execute on our innovation and growth strategy, we are pleased that our Phase 3 century trial in patients with Jack-naive myofibrosis has passed its pre-specified futility analysis and continues as planned without modifications. We are very focused on completing enrollment in this trial while also advancing enrollment in our Phase 3 trial in endometrial cancer as outlined on slide five. As we have discussed in the past, we have a profitable commercial organization in multimiloma that can be leveraged to drive rapid commercialization if we receive approval in additional disease areas. Turning to slide six, we are excited to share with you today new clinical data which further strengthens our conviction in selenexor's potential in combination with ruxolitinib in Jack-naive myofibrosis patients. The data that Reshma will take you through is selenexor monotherapy data in a heavily pre-treated, -to-treat population from our randomized Phase 2 export MF035 trial. The data are very encouraging because they continue to show selenexor may have an impact across each of the key hallmarks of the disease. When combined with other clinical and pre-clinical data we have shared previously, this tells a consistent story which supports our belief that the combination of selenexor plus ruxolitinib has the potential to meaningfully improve patient outcomes and redefine the standard of care in myofibrosis. We look forward to sharing data with you from our Phase 3 century trial which is evaluating selenexor in combination with ruxolitinib toward the end of this year or in early 2026. We have now enrolled approximately 80% of the 350 patients that we are targeting for this study and expect to complete our targeted enrollment in the June-July timeframe. As we think about our potential in myofibrosis, it is worth remembering how we got here which is outlined on slide 7. We have been taking deliberate steps over many years to put us in the position we are in today. We continue to progress our Phase 3 century trial faster than historical benchmarks while remaining incredibly focused on high-quality clinical trial execution. As outlined on slide 8, leading key opinion leaders in myofibrosis, including Dr. Rampal from Memorial Sloan Kettering and Dr. Mascarenes from Mount Sinai continue to highlight the need for new treatment options for patients with myofibrosis and are encouraged by the strength of our Phase 1 combination data. Finally, we continue to believe that the commercial opportunity of myofibrosis is transformational. As shown on slide 9, if approved, we believe that peak revenue for potential for selenexor in myofibrosis is up to approximately $1 billion in the U.S. alone. Based on our market research, including discussions with leading key opinion leaders on our Phase 1 data and the fact that we are looking to combine selenexor with the existing standard of care, we believe that commercial uptake would be rapid. We are eager to see the outcome of Phase 3 trial and the potential opportunity ahead. Now I would like to turn the call over to Reshma.

speaker
Reshma
Clinical Update Presenter

Thank you, Richard. Before I get into the new data, let's quickly review why we believe selenexor as an XP01 inhibitor is a rational mechanism to evaluate in patients with myofibrosis starting on slide 11. Selenexor prevents the nuclear export of various proteins and messenger RNA molecules, inhibiting both JAK and non-JAK pathways, the latter which includes the nuclear localization and activation of P53, an important tumor suppressor in myofibrosis, given that approximately 95% of myofibrosis patients are P53 wild type. Let's start by reviewing the unmet need in JAK-naive inhibitors for myofibrosis on slide 12, selenexor's potential to help patients with myofibrosis, and our opportunity to redefine the standard of care as the first combination therapy. To set the stage, there has been a lack of new treatment options given that the JAK inhibitors are the only approved class of therapies. Rexolitinib has been the standard of care for over 13 years. As the potential first combination therapy in myofibrosis, selenexor plus rexolitinib would be a convenient all-oral therapy that the myofibrosis community has clearly indicated interest in adopting, given the rapid, deep, and durable spleen reductions and symptom improvement observed from the phase one study. Let's now focus on the four key hallmarks in myofibrosis. First, let's look at spleen volume reduction. I think it's a helpful reminder that only approximately one-third of patients achieve a spleen volume reduction of greater than 35% with rexolitinib alone. As we have shared before, our phase one data show that selenexor plus rexolitinib more than doubles that SVR35 rate. Second is symptom improvement. As a reminder, data from our phase one trial of selenexor in combination with rexolitinib showed an average 18.5 point improvement in absolute PSS at week 24, which suggests a meaningful improvement over the 11 to 14 point improvements achieved by patients on rexolitinib, as observed in the phase three manifest two and transform one trials. Third is hemoglobin stabilization and transfusion burden. The new data we will be revealing today shows higher hemoglobin levels, lower transfusion burden, and much lower rates of all grade and grade three plus anemia in patients randomized to selenexor compared to physician's choice, primarily JAK inhibitors, including rexolitinib. Fourth is disease modification. There is minimal evidence of disease modification with JAK inhibitors. The new monotherapy data shows substantial reduction in key cytokines that are critical to myofibrosis pathogenesis symptom development and anemia. We believe this data likely indicates that selenexor is having an impact on the underlying disease, which enables both monotherapy as well as additive, if not potentially synergistic benefit when combined with other therapies, including rexolitinib. Turning to slide 13, our EXPORT-MS035 trial is a randomized phase two trial that is evaluating selenexor monotherapy versus physician's choice. The study was designed to evaluate the efficacy and safety of selenexor in a more heavily pretreated myofibrosis population. Importantly, this trial allows for patients to cross over from physician's choice to selenexor if there's clean met predefined progression criteria. To be eligible for the trial, patients needed at least six months prior exposure to a JAK inhibitor. This trial was originally designed to randomize 112 patients. However, we stopped enrollment in 2023 to focus our resources on our ongoing phase three century trial. Slide 14 contains the baseline characteristics for the 24 patients that we enrolled in the trial. Keep in mind that this trial enrolled a very different patient population than the patients we are enrolling in our phase three century trial. Patients in this trial were heavily pretreated with an average of two prior lines of therapy, with some patients having up to four lines of prior therapy. This is also a very frail high-risk population. I would direct your attention to the fact that 17 percent of patients are triple negative and 21 percent are high risk. Furthermore, these patients are generally cytopenic with hemoglobin levels between nine and ten, five of these patients were transfusion dependent prior to enrolling in the trial. Slide 15 contains the spleen volume reduction observed in this trial. We evaluated the maximum SVR experienced at any time in the efficacy of valuable populations. The eight patients shown in blue were treated with physician's choice. The patients represented by the solid green bars in the middle of the slide were randomized to selenexor. The additional five patients in the textured green bars on the far right were patients that progressed on physician's choice and crossed over to selenexor. As is clear on this slide, spleen volume reduction was greater in those patients that received selenexor at any time compared to the group that received physician's choice. In fact, all but one patient in the selenexor arm achieved some degree of spleen volume reduction, whereas only half of the patients in physician's choice arm experienced a decrease in spleen volume. 38 percent of the valuable patients in the physician's choice arm achieved an SVR 25 at any time, whereas 67 percent in the selenexor arm, including patients that crossed over, achieved an SVR 25. For SVR 35 rates were more than double for selenexor. 13 percent of patients in the physician's choice arm achieved this level of spleen volume reduction or greater compared to 33 percent in the selenexor arm. Slide 16 contains a very compelling spider line graph that looks at the impact that selenexor has on spleen size on patients that crossed over and thus had progressed on prior therapy. Of the six patients who crossed over from physician's choice to selenexor, five were valuable and are showed on the slide. Four of these five patients received Ruxolitinib as their physician's choice prior to crossover. So, in fact, the spider line graph really demonstrates selenexor's effect on the spleen size in Ruxolitinib refractory patients. The first column, as represented by the y-axis, represents the baseline spleen level for each patient. The second series of data points represents the maximum reduction of spleen volume on physician's choice or Ruxolitinib. The third series of data points represent the spleen volume growth experienced at the time of progression. The fourth series of data points then represent spleen volume relative to baseline after the patient's crossover to selenexor. The interpretation of these data are very clear. Each patient that crossed over to selenexor demonstrated clear and meaningful reductions in their spleen volume after crossing over, likely indicating that selenexor is targeting pathways beyond the JAK-STAT pathway, enabling both monotherapy activity as well as additive, if not synergistic, activity when combined with Ruxolitinib. Similar to spleen volume reduction, we also see meaningful symptom improvement with selenexor monotherapy. As you see on slide 17, there was no improvement in symptoms for the patient's randomized physician's choice. In contrast, the seven efficacy-evaluable patients randomized to selenexor reported a .9-point improvement in absolute TSS at week 24, and 29 percent achieved a TSS 50. If you look at all patients treated with selenexor, including those that crossed over, this group reported a .7-point improvement in absolute TSS and 18 percent achieved a TSS 50 at week 24. Please note that all of these figures exclude the fatigue domain, which is consistent with how we are calculating absolute TSS in our phase 3 century trial. As we have previously discussed, we have aligned with FDA on this approach, and it is consistent with the COMFORT and JAKARTA trials that led to approvals for Ruxolitinib and Vedratinib, respectively. Turning to slide 18, we show how hemoglobin levels changed over time. Patients randomized to selenexor are shown in green. Patients on physician's choice are shown in blue. Visually, you can see that hemoglobin levels are substantially higher in the selenexor arm throughout the study duration. Let's take this a step further and look at transfusion burden as shown on slide 19. Starting with the swimmer's plot on the left, we use the same colors from the prior slide. Patients randomized to selenexor are in green. Patients randomized to physician's choice are in blue. And patients that crossed over to selenexor are shown in the yellow extensions at the end of the blue lines. The red dots represent transfusions. Five patients were transfusion dependent at baseline, three in the physician's choice arm and two in the selenexor arm. Notably, patient 4112-003 in the selenexor arm was transfusion dependent prior to randomization. Visually, you can see right away that patients that start on physician's choice receive many more transfusions. Why? It is likely because XP01 inhibition is modifying the underlying disease and helping the patients produce more healthy bone marrow. We expect to be able to answer this question more definitively with the results from the phase three century trial. Now we ask ourselves why are we seeing higher hemoglobin levels and less transfusions? Let's look at slide 20, which outlines the key cytokines that are relevant in myelofibrosis. Starting with myelofibrosis pathogenesis, IL-6 and IL-8 are relevant to malignant mutated clonal expansion, hepatosplenomegaly, and bone marrow angiogenesis. IL-6 and IL-8 also affect constitutional symptoms and drive inflammation, as does TNF-alpha. Anemia is affected by IL-6, hepcidin, and TNF-alpha, which plays a role in suppressing normal hematopoiesis and also blocks iron availability. Please keep all of this in mind as we review slide 21. We obtained plasma samples at baseline and again at week four on a subset of the patients that participated in the trial, five from the solenexor arm and five from the physician's choice arm. We plotted the cytokine changes using a standard dendrogram plot. Blue and purple hues represent a decrease in cytokines. Red and peach hues represent an increase. The on the box in the middle of the screen. This is where the four cytokines that are relevant to myelofibrosis are shown. You'll see the arrows pointing to IL-6, IL-8, hepcidin, and TNF-alpha. For these four key cytokines, we are seeing clear reductions as early as week four in the solenexor arm while there are increases in the cytokines in the physician's choice arm. In the blue box at the bottom, you can see the actual percentage changes, including a 37 percent median reduction in IL-8, 29 percent median reduction in IL-6, 25 percent median reduction in TNF-alpha, and a 30 percent median reduction in hepcidin for those patients in the solenexor arm. In contrast, three of the four medians increased for the physician's choice arm. These data suggest that solenexor is modifying the underlying disease, something that JAK inhibitors have not been able to adequately demonstrate. Let's now turn to the safety data on slide 22. Solenexor continues to demonstrate a manageable safety profile. Solenexor is similar to physician's choice for both all grade and grade 3 plus AEs. In particular, nausea was only 33 percent in the solenexor arm compared to physician's choice. Similar rates of thrombocytopenia were observed across the two arms. A notable exception is anemia, where both all grade and grade 3 plus anemia are meaningfully decreased in the solenexor arm compared to physician's choice. Specifically, all grade anemia was 25 percent in the solenexor arm compared to 58 percent in the physician's choice arm, and grade 3 plus anemia was 17 percent in the solenexor arm compared to 58 percent in the physician's choice arm. These data are notable given that we are not only seeing higher hemoglobin levels and lower transfusion burdens, which I discussed on the prior slides, but also lower anemia AEs in our safety data, further suggestive of disease modification. Lastly, I'll note that none of the patients randomized to solenexor discontinued treatment due to an adverse event. Turning to slide 23, we are pleased that our phase 3 century trial successfully passed its pre-specified futility analysis. The DSMB recommended that the study continue as planned without modification, following a review of safety and efficacy data in the first 61 patients, all of whom were followed for at least 24 weeks. In the study, we continue to make strong progress towards our goal of enrolling 350 patients. We expect to complete enrollment very shortly in the June-July timeframe. With the data that I just shared with solenexor monotherapy in a -to-treat, heavily pretreated patient population, I am very encouraged with the consistency that is being observed across our multiple clinical and preclinical data sets. These data continue to suggest that the combination of solenexor plus ruxolitinib has the potential to be clinically additive, if not synergistic, in a Jack-naive patient population, thus leading to substantially higher SVR and TSS improvements as compared to each agent alone, as observed in our phase 1 combination study. Together with the hemoglobin stabilization and lower transfusion burden, as well as the potential for disease modification, the data continue to suggest that solenexor is affecting each of the four key hallmarks of myelofibrosis. We look forward to continuing to demonstrate this with the upcoming results from our phase 3 century trial and building upon solenexor's well-established safety profile with over 30,000 patients treated across multiple indications and the potential for patient convenience with an all-oral combination. Now let's shift our focus to endometrial cancer where P53 wild type is such an important biomarker. As seen on slide 25, patients with both MMR proficient and TP53 wild type tumors make up approximately 50% of all advanced or recurrent endometrial cancer cases, representing a very sizable group of patients. Solenexor primarily functions by blocking the export of P53 from the nucleus to the cytoplasm. When P53 accumulates in the nucleus, it leads to disrupted DNA repair processes, cell cycle arrest, and increased apoptosis. I remain encouraged with the potential of solenexor to achieve clinically meaningful outcomes in the maintenance setting for patients with P53 wild type endometrial cancer. On slide 26, we outline the study designed for our ongoing export EC042 trial. Enrollment in the trial is progressing steadily and we continue to expect to report top-line data in the middle of 2026. Lastly, our phase 3 EMN29 SPD trial is outlined on slide 28. This trial aims to address the unmet need of patients with multiple myeloma by offering an all-oral triplet treatment option that could also benefit those undergoing pre- and post-T cell engaging therapies. We expect to report top-line data from this event-driven trial in the first half of 2026. I will now turn the call

speaker
Sohania
Commercial Lead

to Solania. Thank you, Reshma. On slide 30, I will discuss our commercial highlights for Q1 2025. We delivered 5% demand growth in Q1 year over year, although net product revenue was $21.1 million and was adversely impacted by a $5 million increase in the product return reserve due to atypical returns of expired product, primarily 80 milligrams and 100 milligram Expovio units. These higher dose units were purchased by clinics and hospitals following the 2020 approval of the Expovio 100 milligram triplet combination. The majority of Expovio that is prescribed today are 40 milligrams and 60 milligram doses and we expect product returns will be similar to historical levels in future quarters. As we look at the key drivers of demand in Q1, we delivered year over year growth in prescriptions across both academic and community settings of care, with the latter contributing to 60% of our sales. The multiple myeloma market remains highly competitive and we're expecting additional new entrants this year. Within this market, Expovio is positioned in the community as a flexible therapy with a differentiated mechanism of action, oral convenient option following treatment with an anti-CD38 therapy, as well as in patients who cannot access or fail a T-cell engaging therapy. In the academic setting compared to last year, we're seeing increasing use of Expovio immediately before and following T-cell therapies. We expect to continue to display resilience in a competitive multiple myeloma market and in light of the atypical level of returns in the first quarter, we now expect to be tracking towards the lower end of our guidance range for net product revenue of $115 to $130 million. Moving to slide 31, we continue to expand global patient access to Cellinexor, which is translating into growth in royalty revenue from Menorini, Antigene and other international partners. Royalty revenue increased 57% to $1.7 million in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the first quarter of 2024, reflecting increasing global demand for Expovio and Expovio. As we now move to potential new indications, our commercial team is preparing for a very rapid launch in malifibrosis,

speaker
Chief Financial Officer
CFO

if approved.

speaker
Sohania
Commercial Lead

As outlined on slide 32, we continue to believe that our peak annual revenue opportunity in the US alone is up to approximately a billion with additional royalty and milestone revenue globally. On slide 33, we outline why we believe we are so well positioned for a rapid launch in malifibrosis. As we have shared previously, 75% of the physicians that we surveyed say that they intend to adopt a combination therapy in malifibrosis if one becomes available. If Cellinexor is approved in combination with Roxalizumib, we could be the first combination therapy on the market. We would be an all-oral therapy, which makes adoption much easier, especially in the community setting. On this point, there is an 80% overlap in the community between malifibrosis and multiple myeloma prescribers that our organization is already calling on, which enables us to drive a rapid launch and minimizes the upfront investment required for the launch. Finally, in endometrial cancer, as shown on slide 34, we continue to believe that we have a significant opportunity in the P53 wild-site PMMR patient population, which represents approximately 50% of advanced or recurrent endometrial cancer patients. Similar to what I outlined for malifibrosis, there's a large overlap between the potential community-based oncologists caring for endometrial cancer patients and those that we are already engaging with. Now I'll turn the

speaker
Lori Sturdevant
Finance Leader

call over to Lori. Lori Sturdevant Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you, Sahanya.

speaker
Chief Financial Officer
CFO

Turning to our financials, since we issued a press release earlier today with the full financial results, I will focus on the highlights and reviewing our guidance for 2025 on slide 36. Total revenue for the first quarter of 2025 was $30 million compared to $33.1 million the first quarter of 2024. U.S. Expovio net product revenue for the first quarter of 2025 was $21.1 million compared to $26 million for the first quarter of 2024. A decrease in net product revenue was due to an increase in the growth to net provision primarily related to the higher-dose product returns recorded in the first quarter of 2025, resulting in a $5 million increase in the product return reserve compared to the first quarter of 2024. Related to this, the growth to net provisions for Expovio in the first quarter was 45% compared to .3% in the same period in 2024. We expect our growth to net provisions will return to historic levels starting in the second quarter. R&D expenses for the first quarter of 2025 were $34.6 million compared to $35.4 million for the first quarter of 2024. The decrease with the reduction in headcount in contractors related to ongoing cost optimization initiatives, partially offset by increased clinical trial activity related to our pivotal phase three study in myofibrosis. SG&A expenses for the first quarter of 2025 were $27.4 million compared to $29.5 million for the first quarter of 2024. The decrease was due to a reduction in headcount in contractors in connection with cost optimization efforts. We continue to be very diligent in allocating our resources and pipeline prioritization while striving to deliver additional cost savings in 2025 and continuing to advance our phase three clinical trials and driving our commercial performance. We exited first quarter 2025 with cash equivalents, restricted cash and investments of $70.3 million compared to $109.1 million as of December 31, 2024. As a reminder, cash burn is typically highest in the first quarter of each year. Based on our current operating plans, our guidance for the full year of 2025 is as follows. The total revenue of $140 to $155 million consisting of US Expovio net product revenue and license, royalty, and milestone revenue expected to be earned from our partners, primarily Metarini and Antigene. US Expovio net product revenue to be in the range of $115 to $130 million. As a result of the atypical level returns in the first quarter, we now expect total revenue and net product revenue will be towards the lower end of these ranges. R&D and SG&A expenses to be in the range of $240 to $255 million. And finally, we expect our existing cash, cash equivalents and investments, the revenue we expect to generate from Expovio net product sales, and other license revenues and ongoing discipline expense management will fund our planned operations into early Q1 2026. This guidance does not include payment for the remaining 2025 convertible notes and our $25 million minimum liquidity covenant under our term loan. Considering the repayment of the 2025 convertible notes and the minimum liquidity covenant, we expect cash, cash equivalents, and investments will fund operations into early Q4 2025. In closing, we are exploring various opportunities to extend our cash runway and are focused on the advancement of our phase three clinical trial, driving commercial performance, and continuing to be very diligent when allocating our resources. I will now turn the call back to Richard for some final thoughts.

speaker
Richard Paulson
Chief Executive Officer

Turning to slide 38, as Lori mentioned, we are exploring various opportunities to extend our cash runway as we are focused on delivering the potentially transformational opportunity ahead of us in myelofibrosis while also continuing to advance our phase three trial in endometrial cancer and deliver solid commercial results. Myelofibrosis and endometrial cancer, depending on the outcome of the data, are both game changing opportunities for patients, our organization, and our shareholders alike. We are working hard to unlock our innovation and growth strategy and are very excited by our growing body of data and what it can mean for patients with myelofibrosis. Thank you again for joining us today and I would now like to ask the operator to open the call up to the Q&A portion of today's call. Operator?

speaker
Chloe
Conference Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question and answer session. Should you have a question, please press star four by the one on your telephone keypad. You will hear a prompt that your hand has been raised and should you wish to cancel your request, please press star four by the two. I would like to advise everyone to have a limit of one question and one follow-off. And if you are using a speakerphone, please lift the handset before pressing any keys. One moment please for your first

speaker
Lori Sturdevant
Finance Leader

question. And your first question comes from the line of Colleen Tilsie from Beardah. Please go ahead.

speaker
Colleen Tilsie
Analyst (Beardah)

Hi,

speaker
Lori Sturdevant
Finance Leader

good afternoon.

speaker
Colleen Tilsie
Analyst (Beardah)

Thanks for taking our questions. Congrats on the continued progress and the new data. Thanks for all the updates. So on the futility analysis, can you talk about what that was based on and what the options were? Could the study have been upsized if the DSMB had suggested it?

speaker
Richard Paulson
Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, thanks Colleen. I'll let Raishma go into the details of that from the futility analysis. Raish?

speaker
Reshma
Clinical Update Presenter

Yeah, thanks Colleen for the question. So there was a futility analysis. It was conducted earlier this year and it was specifically based upon efficacy and safety that was observed in the first 61 patients, all of whom were followed for 24 weeks. For the efficacy, the DSMB had the unblinded data for both SVR35 in that cohort as well as absolute TSS. Those efficacy analyses had pre-specified thresholds. Essentially, the thresholds amounted to no worsening for the combination relative to Ruxolitinib alone. For the safety, again, they were also provided the unblinded safety data from that cohort and there was no pre-specified bars for that analysis that was really based upon their qualitative assessment the totality of that safety data. As you noted, they passed the futility and recommended that the study just continues as planned as we are now doing. Enrollment is now expected to complete in the June-July time frame.

speaker
Colleen Tilsie
Analyst (Beardah)

That's helpful, thanks. And then I believe in prior quarters, you talked about a two-point delta in average TSS being in a stat-cig range for manifest 2 but I think on your slide you talk about the power and the primary points about a four-point delta on TSS. So can you just talk about what you're expecting to need to hit on TSS for it to be a positive study?

speaker
Reshma
Clinical Update Presenter

Sure, so great question. These are just our assumptions. So with 350 patients, we are assuming a delta of four across the two arms and a standard deviation of 12 for each of these two arms. Incorporating those assumptions, the overall power for hitting on absolute TSS is going to be greater than 80%. So these are just our assumptions. In reality, as you know, the data can differ. We still maintain that a clinically meaningful outcome is just improvement for the combination above and beyond what Ruxolitinib alone demonstrates. But again, that four-point delta and standard deviation of 12 are just again the stat assumptions that drive the

speaker
Colleen Tilsie
Analyst (Beardah)

overall power. Got it, that's helpful. And if I can squeeze in one more quick one. The enrollment looks to be slightly behind schedule for the Phase III myofibrose-acentry study. Can you speak to some of the enrollment dynamics you're seeing that's putting you kind of towards the end, the bottom half of the range, thanks.

speaker
Richard Paulson
Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, I think it's a good question. No, go ahead. Go ahead.

speaker
Reshma
Clinical Update Presenter

Yeah, sorry. We stepped over each other. But good question again, Colleen. Sort of like when we put together the enrollment curves, we were really looking at a lot of data, especially historical trials, transform as well as manifest. We were getting a lot of information from the sites and really understanding sort of that competitive intensity or lack thereof that is occurring in the field of myofibrosis specifically in this patient population. I will admit sort of like what we've seen in the last sort of few months, especially in 2025, suggests that it's a little slower than expected. Things are still very robust both from a screening as well as enrollment, but again, a little slower than what we had anticipated, which is what is driving that slight delay in the enrollment timeframe. Got

speaker
Lori Sturdevant
Finance Leader

it. It's helpful. Thanks for taking our questions.

speaker
Richard

Thanks, Colleen.

speaker
Chloe
Conference Operator

Thank you. And your next question comes from the line of Maria Raycross from Jeffries. Please go ahead.

speaker
Amy
Analyst (Murray)

Hi, this is Amy from Murray. Thank you for taking our questions. We have two questions for the myofibrosis phase three trials. The first one is, can you talk about your assumptions to getting into the full enrollment in this June, July? Will you do a press release when you achieve the target enrollment? And also, can you talk more about the baseline characteristics of the patients today, or will you provide more colors on the baselines when the trial is fully enrolled? I have a quick follow up of this

speaker
Richard Paulson
Chief Executive Officer

one. Yeah, I can take the first part of that. You know, our expectations and where we are now is aligned with what Reshma talked to. We're 80% enrolled. We have visibility into the number of people in our screening and pre-screening process. So, you know, we expect to complete enrollment in the June, July timeframe, as Reshma shared. And when we do complete our target enrollment, yes, we will share that in a press release. Maybe for the second part of the question, I'll turn that over to Reshma for some of the baseline characteristics that we're seeing in the trial.

speaker
Reshma
Clinical Update Presenter

Yeah, sure. So for the baseline characteristics, and then again, this is just a quick snapshot. I mean, to your question, you know, will we provide the baseline characteristics for the full population? Yeah, absolutely. And we anticipate being able to do so in the next few months after enrollment is completed. You know, with that said, we just give a little bit of visibility. The patient population by and large is going to be similar to our phase one trial. Again, these are going to be your Jack, naive myelofibrosis patients. All of the patients have to have a baseline platelet count above 100. With that said, you know, they're a little less cytopenic than what we saw in our phase one. So their baseline hemoglobins are slightly higher than what we saw in our phase one. Also baseline platelet counts are slightly higher than what we saw in our phase one. Breakdown, you know, by dips is, you know, very consistent with what you would expect for a Jack, naive myelofibrosis population. I think the one key difference is going to be baseline symptom scores. So in our phase one population, we didn't have any requirement for that baseline TSS. In our phase three, we do. So patients do need to be symptomatic. We actually have a threshold. So overall, you are going to see higher baseline TSSs for this population, again, as compared to the phase one.

speaker
Amy
Analyst (Murray)

Thank you. That's very helpful. The follow up is, can you talk a little about the, if you see anything, the patient compliance in the daily measurement of the TSS score and how does that compare to your expectations and other myelofibrosis phase three trials and what are, yeah, that's it. I

speaker
Reshma
Clinical Update Presenter

can take that one as well. So compliance is really good. So this is something that we've laser focused on from the very beginning of the trial. So, you know, we use an ePro vendor, an electronic PRO vendor who, you know, follows the data. Alerts goes out to the patients. We're notified if a patient doesn't happen to complete, you know, one of their daily TSSs. It just gives us visibility in terms of the data such that if a patient were to miss something, we're able to go ahead and talk to the site and ensure that that patient gets back on track. So overall, that compliance, we're really happy with that very high compliance on those daily TSS forms. In terms of how that's comparing to other trials, I don't know. I'm not aware of any data regarding the compliance from other phase three trials, including Manifest Transform. Again, you know, I got to say, very happy with where we are right now with our phase three. That's very helpful.

speaker
Lori Sturdevant
Finance Leader

Thank you so much.

speaker
Richard

Thank you, Amy.

speaker
Chloe
Conference Operator

Thank you. And your next question comes from the line of Ted Tenthoff from Piper Sandler. Please go ahead.

speaker
Ted Tenthoff
Analyst (Piper Sandler)

Great. Thank you very much. Two questions if I may. Firstly, when it comes to multiple myeloma, what really is driving utilization now? And what are some of the potential marketing synergies between the existing Salesforce and if we hopefully get positive myelin fibrosis data, how would that, you know, sort of jumpstart your sales efforts in MF? Thanks.

speaker
Richard Paulson
Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, thanks. And I'll take the second part of that and then I'll turn it back to Sohani to take the first part. You know, when you look at our existing commercialization capabilities and the alignment or synergy with myelofibrosis, we have about 80% overlap. So a significant number of patients are seen in the community. We have strong capabilities across our commercial team, across our access team, across our global medical and scientific affairs teams. I think there's a really high level of synergy that would enable us to move forward rapidly with really minimal additional investments. And I'll turn to Sohani to take the question. The first part about multiple myeloma.

speaker
Sohania
Commercial Lead

Thanks, Ted, for the question. So we were really pleased with the resilience of the team and ability to grow demand in an increasingly competitive marketplace year over year, so 5% growth in Q1. And

speaker
Ted

as you

speaker
Sohania
Commercial Lead

look at sort of the underlying drivers of that growth, importantly, we were able to grow in the community setting as well as in the academic setting. If you kind of break it down into the two settings of care in the community setting, we continue to be used as a flexible combination therapy, a convenient oral. About 50 to 60% of our patients are in that early align second to fourth line setting, primarily treated in the community setting following an anti-CD38 therapy. But also importantly, for patients that come to the community that either fail a T cell engaging therapy or just are not ineligible or don't have access to it. Now switching to the academic setting, we're positioning Expovio with an increasing body of evidence in that pre and post T cell engaging therapy setting. And we're seeing increasing use there, which really led to the growth in the academic setting in Q1 year over year. Again, it's a highly competitive landscape, as you know, but we continue to have a unique positioning as a differentiated mechanism of action, both in the community and academic settings. And again, to reinforce to your second point what Richard mentioned, obviously a high level of energy in the physicians we already call on, but our capability, our infrastructure that we have built in the past five years really sets us up well for a rapid launch in myelofibrosis, if approved.

speaker
Ted Tenthoff
Analyst (Piper Sandler)

Great, thank you for all that extra color.

speaker
Chloe
Conference Operator

Thanks Jen. Thank you. And your next question comes from the line of Peter Lawson from Barclays. Please go ahead.

speaker
Peter Lawson
Analyst (Barclays)

Hey, thanks so much. Thanks for the questions. Just on the return product in 1Q, so that's five million. What's the normal run rate of return product and are there any further risks of revenue shortfall or return product in 2Q and 3Q that we should be thinking about?

speaker
Richard Paulson
Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, thanks Peter. At a high level, no, and I'll get already go into the details, but I think as as Raishman and Laurie both talked to, this really is, you know, five million atypical impact from high dose returns and Laurie maybe you can just expand on that.

speaker
Chief Financial Officer
CFO

Yes, hi Peter. So if you think about these returns, they were to support the Boston launch, which we talked about, which was really our sales in 21 and 22. So if you think about it, that's over 220 million in sales and this impact was less than 2%. So if it, when you, and then when you look going forward, I think it's important to know that these atypical returns, these high doses, this is the expiry window that opened for these returns. Going forward, as Sahanya mentioned, it translates more to the 40 into 60 milligram doses that we're seeing. So we don't expect this to carry on into future quarters. And so we really do believe this is isolated to this quarter, when this window opened and relative to all of the sales, it's still was below 2%. And then we expect going forward, we'll continue to kind of get back to our more historic levels that we see for those doses more in the 40 and 60 milligrams.

speaker
Peter Lawson
Analyst (Barclays)

Thank you. And, sorry, you mentioned about extending the cash runaway different processes. How are you thinking about for optimization of business development, equity rates, debt instructions?

speaker
Chief Financial Officer
CFO

So it's a very important question. How are we planning our cash runway? I mean, we understand the importance of being well capitalized. And as Richard mentioned, and I both mentioned on the call, we are exploring various alternatives to extend that cash runway. We'll continue to evaluate our cash runway and financial position. Basically, how best can we deliver these phase three clinical trials and get to these top line data readout? But beyond this, I cannot really provide specific details at this time.

speaker
Richard

Okay, thanks so much. Thank you, Peter.

speaker
Chloe
Conference Operator

Thank you. And your next question comes from the line of Jonathan Chang from Learing Partners. Please go ahead.

speaker
Jonathan Chang

Hi, this is Albert Agostinos dialing in from Jonathan Chang. Thanks for taking my question. Will you be able to give us reasons for confidence that you can still reach your revenue guidance? Thank you.

speaker
Richard Paulson
Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, I think, you know, as you heard, you know, from Sohania and you heard from Lori, we're guiding towards the lower end of our revenue guidance, given the impact, this five million impact of our typical, you know, high dose returns. You know, we heard with regards to our US business, 5% demand growth, and year over year, we heard very strong growth from our global partners. So, yes, we believe we're going to be seeing ourselves deliver in the lower end of our guidance from a global revenue perspective and from a US revenue perspective.

speaker
Richard

Thank you. That's very helpful. Thank

speaker
Chloe
Conference Operator

you.

speaker
Lori Sturdevant
Finance Leader

Thank you.

speaker
Chloe
Conference Operator

Once again, should you have a question, please press star followed by the one on your telephone keypad. Your next question comes from the line of Brian Abrams from RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

speaker
Kevin Onforbrian
Analyst

Hi, team. This is Kevin Onforbrian. Thanks for taking our questions. Just had a follow up on the futility analysis. Can you remind us if this was pre-specified before the study expansion and co-primary endpoint change and if or if it was something maybe that the FDA, you know, was asking about with the protocol amendment? And then just speaking of FDA, have you had any further interactions with the agency in the meantime? And just maybe how would you characterize those interactions? Thank you.

speaker
Reshma
Clinical Update Presenter

Yeah, thank you, Kevin. I can take that one. So, yes, this was pre-specified and this futility analysis was part of the trial from the very beginning. So from the initial protocol, nothing that has happened either with the endpoints or even in the increase in the trial size from 300 to 350, you know, prompted incorporation of that futility analysis. In terms of the FDA conversations, you know, sort of like, you know, as we've mentioned in the past, bulk of them were really around that endpoint change, specifically the change from TSS50 to absolute TSS. You know, no additional conversations, you know, at this time and we're just, again, looking forward to completing enrollment and, you know, providing top line results at the end of this year beginning of 26.

speaker
Richard

Great, thank you.

speaker
Chloe
Conference Operator

Thank

speaker
Richard

you.

speaker
Chloe
Conference Operator

There are no further questions at this time. I will now hand the call back to Richard Paulson for any closing remarks.

speaker
Richard Paulson
Chief Executive Officer

Thank you, operator. And once again, thank you, everyone, for joining us today. As you heard through the call, we are very focused and very excited about the transformational opportunity we have ahead of us in myelofibrosis, very much in the near term, as the teams focus on completing enrollment through June, July, and reading out the top line data through the end of this year or early next year. The consistency we see in the strength of our data that Reshma shared again today in a difficult to treat, more severe patient population with multiple lines of therapy, is continue to build our confidence and strength in the potential for selenexor plus ruxolitinib to become the new standard of care, pending positive data in Jack-naive patients. So once again, thank you for joining us.

speaker
Chloe
Conference Operator

Thank you. And this concludes today's call. Thank you for participating. You may all disconnect.

Disclaimer

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