3/14/2024

speaker
Operator

Good afternoon and welcome to the Carrot Packaging fourth quarter and full year 2023 earnings conference call. All participants will be in listen-only mode. Should you need assistance, please signal a conference specialist by pressing the star key followed by zero. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. To ask a question, you may press star then one on your telephone keypad. To withdraw your question, please press star, then two. Please note, this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Roger Pondell, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

speaker
Roger Pondell

Thank you, Operator. Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to Carrot Packaging's 2023 fourth quarter and full year conference call. I'm Roger Pondell with Pondell Wilkinson, Carrot Packaging's Investor Relations firm. It will be my pleasure momentarily to introduce the company's Chief Executive Officer, Alan Yu, and its Chief Financial Officer, Jan Goh. Before I turn the call over to Alan, I want to remind all of our listeners that today's call may include forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such forward-looking statements are subject to numerous conditions, many of which are beyond the company's control, including those set forth in the risk factor section of the company's most recent Form 10-K, as filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission, copies of which are available on the SEC's website at www.sec.gov, along with other company filings made with the SEC from time to time. Actual results could differ materially from these forward-looking statements, and care packaging undertakes no obligation to to update any forward-looking statements except as required by law. Please also note that during the call, we will be discussing adjusted EBITDA, adjusted EBITDA margin, and adjusted diluted earnings per share, which are non-GAAP financial measures as defined by SEC Regulation G, a reconciliation of the most directly comparable GAAP measures to the non-GAAP financial measures is included in today's press release, which is now posted on the company's website. And with that, I will turn the call over to CEO Alan Yu. Alan?

speaker
Alan Yu

Thank you, Roger. Good afternoon, everyone. Sales volume for our 2023 fourth quarter grew 7% over the prior year period. Although revenue was again impacted by unfavorable year-over-year pricing comparison, and by startup delays from several new national and regional chain accounts, we estimated approximately $2 to $3 million in revenue from new accounts was pushed into 2024. We are starting to work on orders from these new accounts now. As part of our strategic initiatives, we continue to scale back U.S. manufacturing during the fourth quarter, which further enhanced gross margin to a near record height of 35.7%. Sales from manufactured product in the fourth quarter were 16% of total net sales, compared with approximately 27% last year. We expect our gross margin to remain at higher levels because of our initiative and the continued strong US dollar. Sales of our eco-friendly product grew 11% in the fourth quarter over the prior year period. This category represented approximately 33% of total sales, which exceeded our expectation, versus 31% last year. We are continuing to develop new and innovative eco-friendly products to meet increasing customer demand and expand our customer base. In 2023, we opened a new distribution center in Chicago and Houston and doubled the size of our Washington State Distribution Center. with the move into a new 100,000 square feet facilities. These new distribution centers are fully operational and contributing nicely to geographic and market penetration. As part of our growth plan for 2024, we recently signed a new lease for a distribution center in Arizona. We're taking possession of the warehouse now and are expecting it to be fully operational early in the second quarter. We are planning on opening another distribution center in the Southeast region this year. Together with a Salesforce expansion, we are further penetrating key U.S. markets in the South, Midwest, and Pacific Northwest region and expect the growth in these markets to more than offset the decline in the California market with weaker conditions in the restaurant sector throughout the states. Our operating leverage in Q4 2023 was impacted by a write-off vendor prepayment of $1.1 million to purchase certain PPE product in 2020 during a period of extreme inventory supply shortage caused by the pandemic. We are focusing on implementing automation and AI technology at all of our facilities in 2024 to further enhance efficiencies and productivities. Additionally, We are actively evaluating strategic acquisition opportunities this year, as market valuations are showing signs of reality and normalization. What carries strong operating cash flow, as well as the company's liquidity, strong balance sheet, and positive long-term outlook, our Board of Directors in February again authorized an increase in the quarterly cash dividend payment to $0.30 per share from $0.20 per share last quarter, and from $0.10 per share since the regular quarterly dividend policies was initiated in August 2023. I will now turn the call over to Jan Guo, our Chief Financial Officer, to discuss the company financial result in greater detail. Jan?

speaker
Jan Guo

Thank you, Alan, and good afternoon, everyone. As Alan mentioned, we delivered another quarter of significant margin expansion and business performance. As I go through the key financial matrix here, I will be talking about certain misclassification adjustments made in the fourth quarter of 2023 for the four-year amount within the income statement with no impact on net income. The prior year amounts were not adjusted due to the immaterial impact on the overall financial statement. Net sales for the 2023 fourth quarter were $95.6 million, including an adjustment of $6.5 million of online sales platform fees for the full year, which resulted in an increase to both net sales and selling expenses. Net sales were $92.7 million in the prior year quarter. Sales volume increased 7.3% over the prior year quarter, which was offset by unfavorable year-over-year price comparisons as we have passed on savings from ocean freight and raw material costs to customers primarily in the last quarter of 2022 and first half of 2023. By channel, compared with a year ago, sales to distributors, our largest channel, was lower by 6.0% for the 2023 fourth quarter. Sales to national and regional chains decreased 3.6%. Sales to the retail channel decreased 5.2%, and our online channel sales were up by 68.2%, including an impact of 60.7% from the adjustment of online sales phone fees as discussed earlier. We are encouraged by the volume growth in our business, as well as the growth of our eco-friendly products, online channel, and the increased geographic penetration in the East Coast northeast, and midwest. Cost of goods sold for the 2023 fourth quarter was $61.5 million, which included an additional import duty reserve of $2.3 million and an adjustment of $3.9 million of certain production expenses from general and administrative expenses, compared with $63.0 million in the prior year quarter, which included and out-of-period inventory write-off of $1.7 million. Gross profit for the 2023 fourth quarter was $34.1 million, which included the additional duty reserve and the impact from the adjustment discussed earlier, versus $29.7 million in the prior year quarter. Gross margin expended 370 basis points to 35.7% in the 2023 fourth quarter from 32.0% for the prior year quarter. The gross margin in the 2023 fourth quarter included a negative impact totaling 240 basis points from the additional duty reserve and the impact from the adjustment discussed earlier. Despite the unfavorable year-over-year price comparison, gross margin benefited from our efforts to scale back manufacturing in the U.S. in favor of imports which carry higher margin and improve operating efficiency. Operating expenses in the 2023 fourth quarter were $29.5 million or 30.8% of net sales compared with $24.9 million or 26.8% of net sales in the prior year quarter. Operating expenses in the 2023 fourth quarter included the negative impact of a vendor prepayment write-off and the adjustments discussed earlier totaling $3.6 million. The increase was primarily driven by higher labor costs, increased rent from additional leased warehouses, and workforce expansion. Such increases were partially offset by lower shipping and transportation costs stock-based compensation, and bed debt expense. Net income for the 2023 fourth quarter was $4.2 million compared with $4.5 million in the prior year quarter. Net income for the 2023 fourth quarter included the negative impact from the additional duty reserve, vendor prepayment write-off, and a tax adjustment of $200,000, totaling $2.9 million. Net income margin was 4.4% in the 2023 fourth quarter compared with 4.9% in the prior year quarter. Net income margin in the 2023 fourth quarter included a negative impact from the duty reserve, vendor prepayment write-off, tax adjustment, and the adjustments discussed earlier totaling 350 basis points. Net income attributable to CARAT for the 2023 fourth quarter with $3.9 million or 19 cents per diluted share compared with $4.5 million or 23 cents per diluted share last year. Adjusted EBITDA, a non-GAAP measure in the 2023 fourth quarter was $8.6 million versus $9.9 million in the prior year quarter. Adjusted EBITDA in the 2023 fourth quarter included a negative impact of $2.3 million from the additional duty reserve as discussed earlier. Adjusted EBITDA margin was 9.0% in the 2023 fourth quarter versus 10.7% in the prior year quarter. Adjusted EBITDA margin in the 2023 fourth quarter included a negative impact from the additional duty reserve and the adjustments totaling 230 basis points. Adjusted diluted earnings per common share was $0.24 per share in the 2023 fourth quarter compared with $0.30 per share in the prior year quarter. We believe Carrot is well positioned to execute on its future growth strategy. We finished 2023 with $110.3 million in working capital compared with $84.5 million at the end of 2022. As of December 31, 2023, we have financial liquidity of $59.3 million with another $26.3 million in short-term investments. I will now close with our 2024 outlook. Net sales for the 2024 first quarter are expected to increase to mid-single-digit from the prior year quarter based on the current competitive environment and the new business outlook. Our gross margin goal for the 2024 first quarter is approximately 37% to 39%. For full year 2024, we expect net sales to grow 8% to 15% and gross margin to be in the range of 35% to 38%, assuming no significant increases in ocean freight rates. Alan and I will now be happy to answer your questions, and I'll turn the call back to the operator.

speaker
Operator

We will now begin the question and answer session. To ask a question, you may press star, then 1 on your telephone keypad. If you are using a speakerphone, please pick up your handset before pressing the keys. To withdraw your question, please press star, then 2. At this time, we will pause momentarily to assemble our roster. The first question is from Jake Bartlett with Truist Securities. Please go ahead.

speaker
Jake Bartlett

Great. Thank you so much for taking the question. My first is on the sales in the fourth quarter. Backing out the online sales adjustment, it was lower than guidance. Even, I think, you know, if you add the 2 to 3 million that kind of moved forward into the first quarter of 2014, it was below guidance. So the question is, what is driving that? Versus expectations, what really drove the lower than expected results in the fourth quarter per sale?

speaker
Alan Yu

Jake, let me answer that question. Well, first of all, we did see a slowdown in the customers purchasing product for inventory back in December, especially in the month of December. we saw a significant slowdown in all of our distributors picking orders on that part. And one of our reasons is that our main chain account were saying that they were overstocked and the business was not as good as last year. So that was one of the main reasons that we had a really slow December.

speaker
Jake Bartlett

Okay. And I remember the stocking or maybe destocking for the distributors is an issue or just a dynamic in the fourth quarter period. that maybe had gone away, is this maybe a return to normal kind of behavior from the distributors, or are we still in kind of abnormal territory with how they're behaving right now?

speaker
Alan Yu

We understand that every year, especially at the end of the year in December, our customer goes on vacations and they try to destock whatever and return inventory that are excessive. That's kind of a normal seasonality thing. One way to avert that will be adding additional new accounts, new businesses to offset that, especially this year now that it's different than last. Actually, the last quarter was different than prior year. In the prior year period, people were concerned that there might be a shortage, so they tend to stock up during the holiday. But last quarter, especially in December, people understand that there's abundant inventory out in the market, so they wouldn't be too concerned about bringing too much inventory into their warehouse. And I believe that most companies or most of our customer distributors are overstocked in the inventory, in the warehouse. They're struggling with the warehouse spaces. In the past year, when they're short of spaces, they actually release additional spaces. But now the warehouse spaces have become so expensive, people are trying to reduce their warehouse storage space to reduce their cost of operation.

speaker
Jake Bartlett

Okay. And then the last question on sales. You know, Alan, if you could just describe the pricing environment. It feels like part of why, you know, the sales were kind of expectations and guidance was marched down in 2023 was because of just pricing and your desire to pass along, you know, price, pass along lower costs through price. Have we stabilized there? Do you think that you feel more confident that pricing is not going to continue to come down in 2024 and that, you know, maybe is kind of bottoming and will grow from here?

speaker
Alan Yu

Well, yes. In 2023, I would say that in most industries, especially packaging industries, everyone is seeing prices coming down due to overstocking, due to the lower cost of ocean freight, due to lower cost of the raw material. And we're seeing basically not only bottom, we're seeing kind of a rebound a little bit in terms of pricing in some categories, like the glove, like certain categories that are in shortage that are from overseas markets. So that's what we're seeing right now. We're seeing... I would say we're pretty much... We came to the bottom in the fourth quarter and it started a little rebound in the first quarter of 2024.

speaker
Jake Bartlett

Okay. I'll pass it on and jump back in the queue. Thank you so much.

speaker
Alan Yu

Thank you, Jake.

speaker
Operator

The next question is from Michael Hoffman with Stiefel. Please go ahead.

speaker
Michael Hoffman

Hi, Alan, Jen. Can I ask some modeling questions about 2024 so we just get all the details? So could you give us a little... thoughts about where SG&A lands, interest expense, taxes, and then lastly, free cash flow and sort of either a dollar amount or a cash conversion ratio of your EBITDA, just so we can complete the model.

speaker
Jan Guo

So, Michael, let me take that question. Yeah. Yeah. So, let me take that question. So, we can provide some high-level estimates, which we would provide to the Revenue and gross margin don't necessarily go down into all the details. But we can definitely share some of our thoughts here. And again, as we mentioned in the guidance, the thoughts on the four-year performance, a lot of that, especially for the second half, this is just a caveat, the second half of 2024 is going to be assuming we don't have significant changes in the ocean freight rate. But high level, when we're thinking about, I think, Michael, you're asking operating expense and interest expense and cash flow, right? So operating expense, I would say high level, this is an area of focus for the management team right now, and our goal is to continue to improve the leverage there. I want to say 2024, high level operating expense, On a four-year basis, it's probably going to be fairly consistent or a little bit better than 2023 when you take out some of the discrete items that we incurred in 2023. I think overall operating leverage is going to improve a little bit. We do expect to see some improvement, especially related to labor costs partially offset by increase in rent expense, some of the fixed expenses as we continue to expand our warehouse space. So high level, that's the operating expense operating leverage. Interest expense year over year, I don't see significant changes. The term loans, and again, these are the term loans that we have on Global Wealth, which is a consolidated variable interest entity. These are the term loans on Global Wealth books that So not our operating entity, but again, both term loans are fixed interest rate. We don't expect significant changes year over year in interest expense. Free cash flow, we do believe our free cash flow is going to continue to be really, really strong in 2024. We talked previously about the pivoting to a more asset-like model, focusing on the import as opposed to making heavy investment on CapEx investment here domestically. So we do expect to continue with that model into 2024 and continue to expect strong free cash flow in 2024.

speaker
Michael Hoffman

So just give us a sense of cash conversion of your EBITDA. Just to put it in perspective, you're in the 70s percent of your EBITDA converted into cash. Should we assume that That carries into 2024 as well? Cash flow from ops less all capital spending. Understood.

speaker
Jan Guo

Understood. I would think it will be in that range. It will be within range.

speaker
Michael Hoffman

Okay. And then, Alan and Jen, can you help us a little bit about – thank you for the details on the sales year-over-year change in the segments. When you look at the ones that were negative, is it – what's the balance between price and volume? Like, is there positive volume but really negative price and so the whole thing's negative? That's what I'm trying to get at is that there was a decent underlying volume number, but I'm overshadowed by the resetting of price for raw materials, lower freight, all that stuff. How do I think about that across those segments?

speaker
Alan Yu

Yes, in the fourth quarter of 2023, the volume did increase. I believe, Jan, what is the percentage of volume increase overall

speaker
Michael Hoffman

And how was that distributed across the four segments, the operating lines, when you think about that? Directionally, you know, positive, negative, distributors, national, retail versus online?

speaker
Alan Yu

I would say that the mainly online sales volume was more positive. And into the, I would say the retail segment was positive. In the distribution segment, I would say it kind of evened out a little bit, but mainly our growth in the volume is more on the online as well as the national chain account. Okay.

speaker
Michael Hoffman

And then you alluded to this a little bit, Jen, about cadence, but can we talk, because you're going to start the year at a much stronger gross margin and finish the year lighter to get to the average of the guidance? Talk to us a little bit about how to think about that cadence. Is there anything lumpy about it, or do I just sort of gradually bring it down all year long to work out to get to the midpoint of the range?

speaker
Alan Yu

Well, here's the thing. If you're referring to 2023, 2024 or 2023? Yeah, four. With the guidance, you start the year at a 37% to 39% gross margin in the first quarter.

speaker
Michael Hoffman

but the full year is below that. So is it a gradual decline every quarter, or is there – how do I think – I'm just trying to – our modeling, thinking about the cadence. Very steady decline each quarter, so I get to a blended average for the full year outlook.

speaker
Alan Yu

Well, this is how – what Jim mentioned earlier, that there's a very big uncertainty of contract renewal for the ocean freight in May of 2024 – So we kind of know exactly what might occur in the first quarter and second quarter. But the big uncertainty is what is the U.S. dollar? Is it going to be weakened or maintained as strong as we are today? As well as ocean freight, is it going to maintain the current level or is it going to increase? If it increases, how much it increases? So we kind of put a cushion in terms of the last two quarters of the end of the year. But we know our volume is going to be strong, our expected volume this year. We're looking for a goal of 15% growth margin today. not growth margin, 15% growth in volume-wise. That is our goal that we're looking to shoot for. And in terms of, of course, the growth margin, we're also adding in that there's some change in terms of calculation, classification. We used to have the CapEx at the operating level But now starting 2023 or 2024, we'll bring the CapEx on the top of the levels. So basically that will affect the gross margin also. That would be one of the big aspects that will affect the margin.

speaker
Michael Hoffman

Okay. So just so I think I understand you, you were being conservative about the direction of ocean freight in your guidance, but it's a point of opportunity if, in fact, the ocean freight proves to be, consistent at current levels? Did I hear that correctly? I may be misunderstanding what you're trying to tell me.

speaker
Alan Yu

Yes, that is correct. If the option frame maintains stable, then basically I would say that this would be definitely beneficial for our third and fourth quarter. Got it.

speaker
Michael Hoffman

Okay. That's what I thought you meant.

speaker
Alan Yu

All right. Thanks. Thank you, Michael.

speaker
Operator

The next question is from Ryan Myers with Lake Street Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

speaker
Ryan Myers

Hey, guys. Thanks for taking my questions. First one for me, so if we think about the revenue guidance range, the 8 to 15% growth, you know, what would you need to see to come in at the high end of that range? Is that more of a stabilization in pricing or even a little bit of improvement in pricing? Just want to get a good understanding of, you know, how we potentially could see that 15% top line growth for 2024.

speaker
Alan Yu

Sure. Well, Ryan, in the past year, prior to pandemic, our company has been growing double digit every year, year over year. And last year was a much different environment because in 2022, there was a major spike in ocean freight and that we have to add the price of cost of goods sold and the reselling prices based on that. And there was a deflationary factor during the last year, 2023. But in 2024, as everything stabilizes, our selling volume is going to increase with adding new sales rep that has been going out there in the street selling to more new chain accounts. And we're already seeing that we're adding several dozens of new accounts in the past few months, basically. So we're adding about 20, 30, 40 accounts. I would say 40 accounts every quarter, distribution and chain accounts. And with that said, that's going to add a lot to our top line. As well as our existing customers, we're adding additional new items, such as napkins and other new categories that we're selling in, that we're looking to bring in this year, additional 300 to 400 SKU that will also add to our top line. On top of that, we're looking at acquisition this year. As we mentioned, doing our IPO, one of the things for our growth strategy is start looking at acquisition target. In the past years, we've been looking at it, but the price was not that reasonable. And we're seeing that... people that are looking to sell their business that potentially we can acquire are becoming more realistic numbers that we can see that we can look into now. So if we were to hit the 15% range, I would say that would have a small acquisition. We're not going to talk about large acquisition, but we're looking at the small site acquisition.

speaker
Ryan Myers

Got it. That makes sense. And then if we think about the softness that you commented on in the distributor and national channels, in the fourth quarter. I just want to get a good understanding of how much of that was driven by just the California market versus how much of it was the overall system as a whole.

speaker
Alan Yu

California market in the fourth quarter, we saw a decline of almost like a double-digit decline in terms of California year over year. The restaurant environment in California, it's really bad in this industry as well as competitiveness. There's a lot more importers in California. Restaurants are not doing well, especially the mom and pop that are serviced by distributors. The chain account, however, is doing much better than the distributors, the mom and pop shops, which we're seeing a lot of restaurant closing and going out of bankruptcy. That's what we're seeing in fourth quarters in California.

speaker
Ryan Myers

Got it. Thank you for taking my questions.

speaker
Operator

The next question is a follow-up from Jake Bartlett with True Securities. Please go ahead.

speaker
Jake Bartlett

Hey, thanks for the follow-ups here. You know, my first was just on that discussion on guidance, Alan. And you had mentioned volume expectations of 15%, but the guidance is, you know, 8% to 15%. So, you know, is that just a follow-on of the lower pricing that we had by the end of the year, or just helping us understand the dynamics? I know there's this mix that goes on as well that impacts, you know, sales growth. So maybe just help us, you know, mesh the 15% volume growth and the 8 to 15% revenue guidance?

speaker
Alan Yu

Yes, volume-wise, it's per case count. The case counts could be something that's worth $3, $4 a bottle or something that is $80 a case. So that's where we're seeing the volume growth is. We're calculating by the numbers of bottles and number of cases that we're selling, the year-over-year comparison. And we're already seeing We've seen the growth starting in fourth quarter, especially November and December of last quarter, last year. And we're already seeing some strong growth this year already in the first three months of this 2024 already. And with the new customer that we just acquired recently and also the potential customer that are in our pipeline, we're seeing this number to continue to grow. So 15%, I would say that it's more of a conservative number. number that I'm going to say in terms of volume growth based on the number of customers that we have in pipeline. But this can be average because, of course, we're looking at the second quarter and third quarter is always our stronger quarter versus our first quarter and fourth quarters in terms of volume growth rise. So we're going to be looking at 50% is our target in terms of average growth quarterly-wise. And in terms of revenue, revenue, we have kind of a strong base already in the 2023 And we're seeing that with these volume growth and new account added, and that's where we see the revenue growth at 8% to 15%. Of course, that is a revenue guidance that we want to be conservative because in 2023, we kind of have a decline in our revenue growth from 2023 compared to 2022. So we're trying to catch back in terms of 2024 to grow beyond the revenue we had in 2022.

speaker
Jake Bartlett

But just so I understand, the offset to volume growth is negative mix or negative price, or else revenue would be higher than volume, I would assume. So why is revenue growth slower than volume growth?

speaker
Alan Yu

The pricing. You're right. We are having to compete with our other vendors for pricing. So we're doing both competing with other vendors as well as selling more higher price volume-wide and online.

speaker
Jake Bartlett

Okay. And Jen, the question on operating expense or G&A growth, I just want to make sure your comment, you said it was you want to improve versus 23. That's on a percentage of sales basis. You don't expect the absolute G&A or operating expenses to be lower year for year. So I just want to make sure that that's the right message.

speaker
Jan Guo

That's correct, Jake. It's the leverage, the percentage.

speaker
Jake Bartlett

Percentage of sales, okay. And then just on the adjustments for the online sales platform fees kind of moving from, you know, I guess going into selling, increasing selling expenses and retail sales, also the production expenses moving out of G&A to cost of goods. How should we think of that just for modeling? You're not telling us, you know, how much they were per quarter or in 23, but should we just divide those adjustments by four and assume that that's the right kind of impact on a quarterly basis as we look to model 24 and beyond?

speaker
Jan Guo

That should be pretty close with the only caveat, well, a couple of caveats there, is the online platform fee with a significant growth of our overall online sales, I would expect that amount to increase in 2024 compared to 2023. On the production expense, I would expect 24 amount to be slightly below the 23 amount because of the continued of the overall domestic production activities here.

speaker
Jake Bartlett

Okay. And then lastly, on the import duty reserve, is it the same kind of way to think about it there that it, you know, maybe should have been higher earlier and was taken all at once here? Or is that not how that works? By taking this reserve now, how would it impact the next three-quarter COGS? Would it be higher? Because if you reserve more appropriately on an ongoing basis, you'd have higher cost of goods sold. Is that how we should think about it?

speaker
Jan Guo

Can I just make sure I'm understanding your question correctly, Jake? You're talking about the reserve for the duty, import duty?

speaker
Jake Bartlett

Yes. Yeah.

speaker
Jan Guo

Okay. So this reserve, we actually don't expect a significant change in 2024 currently based on the best information that we currently have. The reason why we had an increase in the reserve, in this charge, which you're right, it impacted Q4 cost of goods sold. The reason why we had an impact was there was a change of estimate. It was a contingency. It was a lost contingency. We previously reserved, took a charge, reserved based on our best estimate at that point in time. back in the second quarter of 2023, we had an investigation going on. So we took a reserve back in Q2 2023. Fast forward to Q4 2023, we had some updates in events and circumstances that helped us better estimate this reserve. This lost contingency, that's the reason why we recorded an adjustment to this charge. We, as of right now, based on the information and assistance provided from the council, we do not expect significant changes in 2024. That being said, you know, as we think about this reserve amount, as of 12-01-2023, this is based on the best estimate that we currently have. There might be future options that we would look into, but as of right now, we don't expect significant changes in 2024 related to this charge.

speaker
Alan Yu

Jake, let me add to what Jen just mentioned. This reserve is a special duty reserve. It's based on an item that we have imported from overseas. And this basically, all the investigation has confirmed finalized. So in 2024 and onward, we won't have to deal with any type of importing issue on this particular product. But for the amount that we reserve, are we going to see a cash payout anytime soon? No. It might be a couple years down the road since we are going to appeal And this $2.3 million or $3.5 million is the highest reserve we're putting, and then very likely this reserve will change to a different amount, which is we're looking at a lower amount, the dollar amount that would change. But this is the most we will see in terms of the duty that we're liable for, basically.

speaker
Jake Bartlett

Great. That makes sense. I appreciate it.

speaker
Operator

Thank you. The next question is a follow-up from Michael Hoffman with Stifel. Please go ahead.

speaker
Michael Hoffman

Thanks. The M&A, just to be clear, given the quality of the cash flow, I presume you would be able to fund the small M&A that you're thinking about all from sources that you generate, so it's self-funded.

speaker
Alan Yu

Correct.

speaker
Michael Hoffman

Yeah, okay.

speaker
Alan Yu

Unless, yeah, I mean, we're, basically, we have over $100 million, like Jen mentioned in our report, over $110 million in cash flow in terms that we can utilize, which we're not going to utilize all of it. But for sure, that's something that we can do self-funded.

speaker
Michael Hoffman

Okay. The big statement being is that there's nothing on the radar that you're going to drive the leverage up. This can be self-funded off of cash, and the leverage stays relatively stable.

speaker
Alan Yu

Yes, yes. And also, we are going to generate even more cash this year. Right. That's what I was trying to get at. Okay. Thanks.

speaker
Operator

This concludes our question and answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Alan Yu for any closing remarks.

speaker
Alan Yu

Thank you, everyone, for joining our 2023 fourth quarter earning calls. And I would like to say thank you all and have a nice day. Thank you very much. Bye-bye.

speaker
Operator

The conference is now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

Disclaimer

This conference call transcript was computer generated and almost certianly contains errors. This transcript is provided for information purposes only.EarningsCall, LLC makes no representation about the accuracy of the aforementioned transcript, and you are cautioned not to place undue reliance on the information provided by the transcript.

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