Open Lending Corporation

Good afternoon, and welcome to Open Lending's first quarter 2022 earnings call. As a reminder, today's conference call is being recorded. On the call today are John Flynn, Chairman and CEO, and Ross Jessup, President and COO, and Chuck Yell, CFO. Earlier today, the company posted its first quarter 2022 earnings release to its Investor Relations website. In the release, you will find reconciliations of non-GAAP financial measures to the most comparable GAAP financial measures discussed on this call. Before we begin, I'd like to remind you that this call may contain estimates and other forward-looking statements that represent the company's view as of today, May 5, 2022. Open Lending disclaims any obligation to update these statements to reflect future events or circumstances. Please refer to today's earnings release and our filings with the SEC for more information concerning factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied by such statements. And now, I'll pass the call over to Mr. Flynn.

Thank you, Operator. Good afternoon, everyone. Thanks again for joining us for Open Lending's first quarter 2022 earnings conference call. I'd like to start today by reviewing our first quarter highlights and the progress we've made on our growth objectives. Then Ross is going to provide an update on the auto manufacturing and lending landscape, discuss some recent underwriting program enhancements, and provide an update on our insurance partners. And then finally, Chuck is going to review our Q1 financials and outlook for the full year 2022. Now to our high-level financial review of the first quarter results. We're very pleased to report another strong quarter at open lending. Q1 2022 certified loans increased 32% to $43,944 as compared to Q1 2021. We reported revenue of $50.1 million, which was an increase of 14%, and adjusted EBITDA of $33.8 million which was an increase of 11% as compared to the first quarter of 21. We're also very encouraged by the continued growth in our credit union and bank line, where we achieved a 76% year over year increase in certs for Q1 22. This was driven in part by a few things. The addition of new accounts, including some that are preparing for CECL compliance by the end of the year, the continued strength of our refinance program and further penetrating our existing customers through wallet share. Let me first turn to the new customer side. We signed 18 new accounts in the first quarter and five of these were tier one accounts classified as over 1 billion in assets. Momentum has also continued into April with seven new contracts signed since quarter end and 20 active implementations underway. Now I'd like to turn to the refinance program and expand on our success with this channel. We continue to add new and existing credit unions and banks to the refinance program during the quarter, which has been an enhanced focus of ours to help lenders and consumers offset the temporary headwinds associated with affordability due to the inflated car values and inventory shortages. We added two new refinance channel partners in Q122 with our volume reaching nearly 40% of our total search. As a result of our flexible business model, our refinance channel has accommodated consumers by allowing them to modify their existing terms and lower their payments in a challenging environment. Our value proposition for refinance will remain strong regardless of the rising rate environment, due to the fact the credit union's cost of capital remains very low relative to other lenders, and they always seem hungry for auto loans, which was proven in the previous rising rate environments that we've seen. Moving on to the existing customer expansion, our top 10 customers, excluding OEMs, have increased their certification volume by 166% and Q122 as compared to Q121. And we continue to focus on expanding our wallet share with our existing customers, which is a key initiative of ours in 22. Now I'd like to update you on our other long-term growth initiatives and strategic investments to support our mission, which is to serve the underserved by using our technology and valuable data to empower consumers to get the best loan rates that their risk status will allow while satisfying the return goals of our lending customers. First, the one big area of investment this year will be our go-to-market sales strategy with additional dedicated sales team members to capture more of the significant $250 billion TAM. Secondly, we will be growing our account management staff to continue focusing on expanding wallet share with our existing customers. We've already made several key hires within our sales and account management staff in the first quarter, and we're seeing good early traction with these investments. We've also recently made a key hire to support our OEM captive and large institution opportunities to ensure that we are well positioned to grow and capture the flood of pent-up demand that will ultimately come when the inventory headwinds subside. We'll also be making some key hires with core experience in bank and auto originations and underwriting to further penetrate the bank space. And then finally, we're investing in technology to further enhance the lender's protection platform for our lenders by modernizing the platform and infrastructure to support our growth improving lender reporting and claims capabilities, and investment and development resources. I'd like to now turn it over to Ross.

Thanks, John. Today, I will highlight the current and near-term U.S. automotive market conditions and outlook, recent underwriting program enhancements made to Lenders Protection, commercial activities with our industry-leading OEM customers and prospects, and progress with our insurance partners. First, on the current and near-term U.S. automotive market conditions and outlook. As we enter 2022, we began to see incremental improvement in a variety of leading indicators for production. We remain optimistic that the toughest headwinds facing the industry are mostly behind us as we navigate through the remainder of the year. As we reported last quarter, dealer networks across the country are reporting modest improvements in inventory pre-sold orders, velocity, and overall demand conditions. Entering the second quarter, North American vehicle production industry forecasts for the full year 2022 have been updated to reflect the impact of the renewed first quarter lockdowns in Asia and subsequent production shutdowns. The industry is now expecting 2022 total production to be roughly in line with the total units delivered in 2021 or close to 15 million units. As for demand and pricing, with the production run rates 2 million units below levels prior to the pandemic, demand remains strong. We continue to closely monitor vehicle affordability as average used vehicle pricing was up double digit year over year in the first quarter. Specifically, in the last 12 months, on average, we have seen monthly payments for used car segments increased 18% year-over-year to approximately $488 per month. When reviewing the last 24 months of data, it does appear that pricing peaked in February. We are monitoring the tightening supply in March and April as we execute our go-to-market strategy for the quarter. Our expectation for a gradual return to affordability that will enable the near-prime and non-prime consumers to return to the dealerships over the next 18 months. It's our understanding and belief, given what we've experienced in prior cycles, that claim severities will increase gradually in a predictable fashion as we revert to normalized conditions. Moving on to our recent underwriting program enhancements. Over the past two months, we rolled out two major enhancements in our product offerings. For indirect lending, we expanded our loan limits by approximately 30%. The last time we changed these limits was approximately six years ago. In reviewing the potential impact, we found that over one-third of our applications were requesting larger loan amounts than we allowed. Additionally, early in April, we expanded term offerings to 84 months for certain model years and lower mileage vehicles. The potential impact is also significant As approximately one-third of our applications received were asking for terms longer than our previous limits. Both changes were enacted while maintaining our discipline and rigor in underwriting. We are very encouraged by the early results and believe we are well positioned in the future to capture a large portion of these applications. For purposes of historical comparison, during the period of 2009-2011, the average term for a used car increased from 57 months to 64 months. Most importantly, the average delinquency rate declined 150 basis points from 4.5% to 3%. Next on commercial activities with our industry-leading OEM customers. We continue to have strong partnerships with two of the most powerful automotive brands as they are powering through the market challenges globally. For 2021 and Q1 of 2022, our volume as a percentage of theirs has remained at a consistent level. We look at this as a positive sign that as the supply continues to ramp towards normal levels, our volume should increase proportionally. In fact, there should be even more opportunity for us since the near and non-prime consumers were notably underserved over the last year. We continue to engage weekly with top leadership at our OEM captive customers and prospects so that we are well positioned as the market recovers. Lastly, as you know, expanding our insurance partner relationships is a key initiative. We are excited to announce that we signed an agreement with Arch Specialty Insurance Company, our fourth insurance partner, to be an additional provider of credit default insurance policies for our Lenders Protection Program. This is another important strategic initiative for us, and we are thrilled to be working with such a great team at Arch. We believe that there is more than enough volume to support all of our insurance partners while continue to deepen our value relationship with our existing partners. The terms of this agreement and the financial arrangements are substantially similar to the others. Although capacity has not been an issue to date, we are excited to have Arch on our team based off our significant TAM and growth plan in front of us. I now turn this over to Chuck to discuss our Q1 financials and outlook for 2022. Thanks, Ross.

Despite all of the macro headwinds John and Ross mentioned, we are pleased to report another strong quarter at open lending. During the first quarter of 2022, we facilitated 43,944 certified loans compared to 33,318 certified loans in Q1 of 21, a 32% increase year over year, and we executed 18 contracts with new customers. In addition, as John stated earlier, we currently have 20 active implementations with go-live dates in the next 60 to 90 days. Total revenue for the first quarter of 2022 increased 14% to $50.1 million as compared to $44 million in the first quarter of 2021. Profit share revenue represented $28.3 million of total revenue, program fees were $19.7 million, and claims administration fees were approximately $2 million. To further break down the $28.3 million in profit share revenue in Q1, profit share associated with new originations in the first quarter of 2022 was $25.7 million or $584 per certified loan, as compared to $22.7 million or $680 per certified loan in the first quarter of 2021. Also included in profit share revenue in Q1 of 2022 was 2.6 million change in estimated revenues from certified loans originated in previous periods, primarily as a result of healthy consumer balance sheets against a backdrop of full employment and the continued overall portfolio performing better than we expected due to fewer defaults in claims and lower claim severity as a result of our conservative underwriting. Gross profit was 45.3 million in the first quarter, an increase of 11%. driven primarily by the increase in certified loans in Q1 of 22 as compared to Q1 of 21. Gross margin was 90% in the first quarter of 2022 compared to 92% in the first quarter of 2021. Selling, general and administrative expenses were 13 million in the first quarter of 2022 compared to 11.2 million in the previous year quarter. Operating income was 32.2 million in the first quarter of 2022 compared to 29.4 million in the first quarter of 2021. Net income for the first quarter of 2022 was 23.2 million compared to 12.9 million in the first quarter of 2021. Basic and diluted earnings per share was 18 cents in the first quarter of 2022 compared to 10 cents in the previous year quarter. Now turning to adjusted EBITDA for the first quarter of 2022, was $33.8 million as compared to $30.3 million in the first quarter of 2021, an increase of 11%. There's a reconciliation from GAAP to non-GAAP financial measures that can be found at the back of our earnings press release. We exited the quarter with $342.7 million in total assets, of which $147.4 million was in unrestricted cash, $107.5 million was in contract assets, and $64.9 million in net deferred tax assets. We had approximately $159.4 million in total liabilities, of which $145.6 million was in outstanding debt. We had approximately 126.2 million shares outstanding on March 31, 2022. We posted an updated investor presentation and first quarter 2022 earnings supplemental to our investor relations website, which includes a slide that lays out our current share count. Now moving to our guidance for 2022. Based on our first quarter results and trends into the second quarter, we are reaffirming our guidance ranges for the full year of 2022 as follows. Total certified loans to be between 195,000 and 225,000. Total revenue to be between 210 million and 240 million. Adjusted EBITDA to be between 135 million and 160 million. and adjusted operating cash flow to be between $140 million and $165 million. Despite the industry headwinds as dealer inventory is restocked, we are confident in the resiliency of our business and the ability to navigate through the supply and affordability constraints. In our guidance, we took the following factors into consideration. The affordability index for our target credit score due to the continued inflated used car values, the continued strength of our refinance program and the value proposition it offers consumers, inflation and rising interest rates, the global semiconductor chip shortage, OEMs that have streamlined their supply chain, having moved to just-in-time inventory manufacturing processes, disruption in transportation networks and raw material shortages, low levels of dealer inventory, and, of course, the investments we are making in our business that John mentioned earlier. I want to thank everyone for joining us today for our first quarter 2022 earnings call. We will now take your questions.

As a reminder, to ask a question, you will need to press star 1 on your telephone. To withdraw your question, press the pound key. Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster. Your first question comes from the line of Peter Heckman from the Davidson. Your line is open.

Hey, thanks for taking the question. A lot of information there. Can you talk about in terms of the trends that you're seeing with refi almost at 40% and I believe you said you added another refi referral partner. Do you think that level can be sustainable and can continue to bridge open lending's growth in certified loans until we see a recovery in new car inventories?

Yeah, Peter, this is John Flynn. I agree with that statement 100% that this is definitely sustainable. We're seeing a ton of applications come through that platform. These are consumers that have all been taken advantage of and when you look at the fact that it's still that $250 billion TAM, we're just continuing to grow that side of the business. I don't see it going away even during an inflationary type period. I think you're always going to see that our credit union core business is very hungry for these types of loans. And with their cost of capital, I think it's only going to continue to grow. So yeah, I think it's definitely going to help us bridge the gap between

new cars hitting the dealerships again and and the numbers we've thrown out there great great that's helpful and then just can you help me remind me when um open lending reversed uh the pricing increase uh that they put in place after the pandemic um i'm just i'm just trying to account for the average profit share per loan When excluding the adjustment, it looks like it was maybe $585 this period against maybe $680 last period. Can you just help me with the differences between the two?

You bet, Pete. Hey, it's Chuck. How are you doing? Yeah, it was April of 2021 when we actually took that COVID vehicle value discount 5% off. And so the, you know, the comparable profit share that you're seeing in the supplemental, the 584 per certified loan on new originations in Q1 of 22, as compared to the 680 previous year quarter, that has not been taken off yet. And it was about, you know, about $100 roughly per certified loan. It's about a 15% premium increase during, a little bit more than that in the COVID adjustment period. So So it'll be more comparable, you know, Q2 forward when we, you know, report later for the second quarter.

Okay. That's helpful. I'll get back in the queue. I appreciate it.

Yep. Thanks, Pete.

Your next question comes from the line of Joseph Pavey of Canikerd. Your line is open.

Hey guys, good afternoon. Nice to see the steady results in a tough environment. I thought maybe we could focus. I know Cecil's coming up for the credit unions and I know they've got, you know, they've got that on their radar this year and I know that you're seeing some activity on that already. Just wondering, what the rate environment and inflationary environment may mean for some of the credit unions that you have and potential new partners relative to CECL and what you're seeing in general in the credit unions with CECL coming up. And I'll follow up.

Thanks, I appreciate it. I think just the number of tier one accounts that we signed in the first quarter And then I just talked about continuing into the even April. I think it's just evidence of the fact that these larger shops are starting to position for the CISO relief that we can provide them. You know, again, I think regardless of where the rate increases go, you know, we've been through this in 08 and 09, and credit unions continue to actually increase their volume because of their low cost of capital when everybody else starts to increase their rates across the board. because of inflation and rate increases credit unions again continue to kill it so i think you couple that low cost of capital with the cecil relief and it's really setting us up really well for some good tailwinds okay that's helpful thanks john and then maybe ross uh can we get any updates on uh on potential new oem partners i mean i know you you said that you hired a

a new key resource, uh, to help with that channel.

Yeah, Joe. Uh, yeah, we, we brought on someone that's worked with us as a, as a, an advisor and consultant, but we, we brought them on full time. We also have, uh, a couple of positions out. We, uh, we're talking to folks actually next week about, uh, joining that, you know, have years of experience with, uh, in, in, in the market. They are well known and, and know a lot of the, the, the folks out there, you know, it's, um, Our activity level and our conversations are still ongoing. We've got things teed up here later in the year after some IT projects are finished that we're going to be back on the radar to see about implementation and signature and implementation. But we're really excited about it. They all see the value prop of what we deliver. And they have to look actually out 12 to 18 to 24 months to see when these current vintages of originations, you cannot use historical losses when you're looking at what you're doing today. There's a bell curve from a loss in a PD standpoint. And so today's vintages are exactly the reason you need us out there to protect you from what is inevitable loss. 12 to 24 months, and our premiums are all rated that way as well.

Hey, Ross, the one thing I'd add to that that I think is important, the gentleman that Ross just alluded to, his background is not just in the auto space. He comes from the bureaus as well, having been inside selling for some of the bureaus, which has created some key contacts with the risk people at these big auto lenders. And I think that really expedites our sale. When you talk about like the sale cycle, typically it's, you know, you get to the lending people. Yeah, they think it's great. We can do more volume. Now we've got to get it in front of the risk people. We've got to get it. And I think the people that we're looking to bring on now with the backgrounds that we're finding kind of expedite that by getting you in front of the larger group at the same time.

Yeah, you're right, John. I mean, the individual we brought on, that's been helping us over the years came out of the OEM side, and now this other person comes out of more of the captive finance side. So it's a great combination to have both of them helping us expand on what we've already had great success at.

That's great, guys. Thanks very much. Thank you, Joe.

Your next question comes from the line of Bob Napoli from William Blair. Your line is open.

Hi, this is Spencer James on for Bob Napoli. Thank you guys for taking the question. Just one on the new insurance carrier you announced. What are the biggest advantages to signing additional insurance carriers? Is it more on the new sales side or does it help with your underwriting? What's the biggest advantage there?

I just think when you start looking at how large our TAM is, and what our plan is over the next five years, it's just nice to know we've got that capacity so we don't have to spend our time trying to bring on someone three, four years down the road. They're already there. They do have connections in the bank, credit union, and OEM world that can also help us expand, but it's better to have more connections capacity than less. And, you know, that was kind of what we've done over the time. And I just think it's a great combination. You know, the financial economics are the same. We make sure of that. That way there's no adverse selection. And, you know, so it's just great to board them. And, you know, as of June 1st is our target launch date with them. And it's great. John, do you want to add anything to that?

Yeah, I think the only thing I would add to that, Spencer, is When you have insurance companies of the size that we're bringing on now, having done their due diligence and gone through all the risk models, I also think it brings a little bit more credibility to the market to know that our program, our underwriting rules, everything has been vetted to the point where they're willing to sign on for their risks. I think it's just a great combination to have three or four big companies saying they all agree with what we're doing.

I think one other thing to add, Spencer, too, is every one of our agreements, of course, is an exclusive, which means that we're tied together. They cannot offer this program to anyone else, and so really it just helps us maintain the fact that we have no competition today, and that certainly helps us maintain that position.

Okay, thank you. And then one follow-up. The growth from the top 10 customers excluding OEMs up 166% year-over-year. That's definitely a really impressive number. Could you talk a little more about where that growth is coming from? Is it just off a low base? Are you expanding the credit boxes with those customers? Anything like that?

Yeah, Spencer, I'll start and then John. Yeah, go ahead, John.

No, no, I was just going to say it's a combination of both, but I think some of the underwriting rule changes that Ross and the risk team have been working on, coupled with expanding our refinance channel partners to bring more apps to the table is what's driving a lot of it. But go ahead, Chuck.

You know that it, yeah, I think, you know, if you think about those customers and the growth in refinance and adding the channel partners and really focusing on the refi channel during these challenging times for inventory, has been really good for our customers and for us.

Okay, thanks. And one last one. You mentioned some incremental investments in salespeople and go-to-market. Would you say this is just more of the same hiring to build off what you built in 2021, or is this kind of an inflection point in ramping up additional hires?

I think it's an inflection, but I think it's a combination of both, actually. You know, we've really had 10 dedicated salespeople, for the most part, following leads from a reseller that we use called Allied Solutions. And I think now that we're, you know, we've made some great progress. We've got a great reputation, if you will, especially in the credit union and bank space. The OEM, you know, we're not throwing names out there, but I think we're just kind of expanding the team to be closer to the territories they work in. And it's not just on the sales side. We're putting a big effort into bringing on more account managers, which are farming our existing accounts. It's a lot easier to get business from an existing account that may have fallen off for one reason or another. You lose a loan officer or two and The new hires don't know enough about us to use us. So by bringing on some more account managers and getting inside our shops on a more regular basis, we're starting to see some real benefit from doing that.

Thank you for the questions. Thanks, Spencer. Thanks.

Your next question comes from the line of Vincent Cantick from Stevens. Your line is open.

Hey, thanks for taking my questions. And congratulations on the ARCH win. So I have a follow-up question on that. So just wondering with ARCH, if you're able to expand your product set or do anything differently. I know ARCH is, you know, a global insurance company. They're in Canada and other places. So, you know, maybe with that or with some new products like PowerSports. And just, you know, with, you mentioned that the economics are the same. And I'm just curious with ARCH and really with the insurance companies, sort of what you're hearing in terms of views on when credit normalizes, what's the appetite and what their thoughts are with that. Thank you.

John, do you want to go first?

Yeah, from a standpoint of other products, Vincent, we continue to get asked almost quarterly. I think since the last earnings call, our executive team has spent a lot more time digging into future products, geographic expansions, We're in the process of a cost benefit study right now on Canada. We've engaged a firm that did our study. If you remember back when we first came up with the $250 billion TAM, that was an independent study from a company called L.E.K. We've reengaged them to ask us to look at the market from a standpoint of what is the benefit of digging into the leases you know, what would be the next product? Leases, power sports, geographic expansion. So right now we're in the middle of that study. We hope to have some more answers back to you by the next earnings call. And, you know, other products, you know, I've just been confronted by a company that wants to look at insuring home equity, which we've talked about in the past, but another one just popped up, small business loans. a company that has all the data they claim you need to underwrite them, and, you know, is there a way to ensure that stuff? So we continue to have conversations with all four carriers as to what is their appetite for these different asset classes based on the data.

Yeah, Vince, I'll just kind of finish it off. I think we've come to the decision that, you know, in the near future, There's no reason we should be looking at anything except auto. I mean, it's such a gigantic space. We've scratched the surface and done very well there. Let's continue to expand and keep looking at these other opportunities, but never lose sight of what's right in front of us.

Okay, that's helpful. And just to follow up the... Yeah, credit, just kind of their views, because I agree with your point that they're validating your model by having these large global insurance companies sign up. So kind of how your discussions are when people are kind of nervous about credit. Thank you.

Yeah, Vincent, I mean, they've obviously, in order to sign up today, they've done a lot of their own homework. We have our actuarial firm that we work with. We have our own internal risk folks. You know, we vet everything out, everything that we've been doing, any underwriting rule changes we make from an 84-month expansion, for example, over 72 in loan amount, those are all done collectively, and we're all on the same page. So there's not a single one that has taken a deviation from that. And so, you know, ARCH has been around a long time. We have a great team there. You know, our current partner's all have had, you know, we get them in the same room together. And so I think we're in a great position. We have weekly meetings. And, you know, we have not, we've got history here. And so they always want us to look back to 2008, 2009, and what happened and what would have happened and the same thing happened today. And so we're constantly doing that. Chuck, do you want to?

Yeah, and Vincent, the only thing I'd add is maybe in my prepared comments about the, you know, we talked about profit share even. you know, the healthy consumer balance sheet and, you know, some statistics that we, you know, track from U.S. household, you know, debt service payments as a percent of disposable income. It's less than 10%, you know, per consumer, you know, which is the lowest in 30 years. So, you know, the consumer balance sheet's really strong. And you think about deposits at the largest banking institutions, you know, deposits in currencies are over $4 trillion, I think we heard earlier this week. So, you know, it's really a healthy consumer and which will, you know, bode for the credit. So...

Perfect. Thank you. One last one for me. Your business continues to generate a lot of cash. I think you're close to $150 million in cash right now. I'm just curious about your capital priorities, especially with your stock trading as low as it is. Any interest in buying back stock or just maybe talk about capital usage?

Thank you. Thanks, Vincent. Obviously, we generate $30 million in the quarter in cash flow and about $150 million million roughly on the balance sheet at quarter end. You know, obviously, you know, we're investing in the business. You know, we talked about it on the year-end call and again today. And that's our, you know, first priority, obviously, is when use of cash is in the go-to-market strategy and sales and account management and marketing that John's talked about. Obviously, in our technology, we're enhancing lender's protection and the platform for the, you know, our customers and modernization of that and really making some enhancements there this year. So, After that, obviously, we still generate a lot of cash, and obviously, we look at the share of buyback as a good use of cash. However, it's a board-level decision, and it's something we evaluate with the board. We're not highly levered. We've got very low debt, and on a net debt basis, we're actually a negative net debt, $1.8 million. But it's definitely something that we evaluate, but first and foremost, focused on investing in the business. Great. Very helpful. Thank you. Thanks a lot. Thank you.

Your next question comes from the line of John Davis from Raymond James. Your line is open.

Hey, good afternoon, guys. Chuck, just hoping you can help us a little bit with the ramp inserts. Obviously, kind of 44,000 this quarter. I think the midpoint of the guy would imply something like 55,000 on average. But just if you could help us think about the ramp, I assume the back half, It's going to be significantly better, but maybe just the color on 2Q or how we should think about the ramp inserts, at least how you guys think about it today.

Yeah, you know, when we talked – hi, by the way, John. Yeah, when we talked earlier, you know, on the Q4 call, you know, we pointed to that, you know, 20% of the midpoint, you know, for Q1, which, you know, we exceeded. So we were very pleased with, you know, the Q1 results. And, you know, I guess I would point you to for the – you know, to not be specific on Q2 – is, you know, it really depends on the rate of the restocking, you know, and really the production around the OEMs, the domestic OEMs, the large production, you know, has really weighted to the second half of the year, and we've got to get more inventory. Obviously, the refinance business, you know, we're very excited about the channel and the growth there. However, it's going to, you know, take more vehicles and inventory to continue on the rest of the growth. You know, however, seasonally, you know, summer months are strong, so... You know, we look at that as well. So, you know, it's a little bit of the back-end loaded year. But, you know, we feel good about our guide. We reaffirmed the full year. And, you know, we came off of a record March, you know, month. And, you know, encouraged by the trends into the second quarter. But, you know, there's a lot of demand out there. And, you know, we believe production bottomed in the fourth quarter. And, you know, dealer inventories bottomed. So we believe the recovery is taking place. You know, I think, you know, there's a couple of backdrops that we all saw recently with, you know, obviously the geopolitical in Ukraine and, you know, the rare earth materials that are needed for chips and, you know, the COVID, you know, reoccurrence in China that shut down some of the production there. So some of those are headwinds. But, you know, we watch the supply and demand dynamic daily and, you know, we're ready and executing to run the business. So long answer, but that's kind of the things we think about.

Okay, that's helpful. And John, just maybe spend a minute talking about the competitive landscape. I think, you know, 4Q last year, maybe some competitors started to get a little bit desperate and kind of crazy from a pricing standpoint. You called it out as a headwind that, you know, you and your banks weren't willing to kind of go where maybe some of your competitors were from a pricing standpoint, but obviously we're in a different environment now, you know, three to six months later. So just curious, Are you seeing that your pricing is, you know, that your banks are comfortable with and banking credit unions is more competitive today? Just any color there would be super helpful.

Yeah, I think Ross kind of alluded to a little bit of this from the standpoint of, you know, we just went out to an 84-month term, which was a big move for us. But, you know, all the studies we did, and Ross can speak to this better on the risk side, but all the studies show that the 84-month term consumer performs better when they're a near-prime consumer than if they were a prime borrower, simply because they need payment. So with payment to income being one of our big indicators of default, and you can now stretch their payment out into that 84-month term, we're seeing that the default rates are exactly what we can live with from this insurance standpoint. So I think stuff like that we've looked at. When I mentioned that the headwinds of the likes of Exeter a couple, maybe two quarters ago, offering to pay four points to get a loan in the door, it's things like that that are driving our refinance channel through the roof. You know, when the Exeter, the Santander, the high cost of capital funding sources, they might have paid some money to get the loan in the door, but when that consumer is paying 21 or 18 or whatever, you know, some high rate that they shouldn't have been subjected to, that's where our refinance channel is picking up that loan and driving them down into more of a, you know, an affordable 11 or 12% rate. So I think by, you know, just staying the course, doing what we do well, we'll still capitalize on those that have made some changes that we can, you know, pick up the pieces afterwards.

Okay. Then one more quick one for, for Chuck. If I look at kind of profit share per cert X, the economic assumption adjustment, I think it's 585 or 584 this quarter. Is that kind of a good, a good run rate to think about Chuck for, for the rest of the year? Any color there, obviously it's bounced around a lot with COVID and different assumptions, but just curious there, how should we think about the profit share X, the economic adjustment?

Yeah, we do, John. You know, we've talked about it internally, and, you know, anywhere from that call it 560 to 600 range is a good, you know, there's going to be some mixed impact in there, and it just depends on, you know, the claims and the, you know, submissions, et cetera. But we think that's a good modeling number for the rest of the year. Okay. Appreciate all the color, guys. You bet. Thank you.

Your next question comes from the line of Faiza Alwi from Doja Bank. Your line is open.

Yes, hi, thank you. So a couple questions from me. One, just wanted to get a sense of how do you think about, you know, refi certs as a percentage of the overall certs as we get through the end of the year, because it's obviously been increasing and there's rightly a focus on that. So curious if you have any perspective on that.

Yeah, I think when you talk about it as a percentage of total certs, That's going to be a moving target. I think we will certainly continue to grow the refinance channel from a, you know, sheer numbers standpoint. But as the captives come back online and cars, you know, new cars start to hit the lot, you know, the hope is obviously that those numbers are going to pick up as well. So will it stay 40% or, you know, I think it's going to stay a high number, but I couldn't indicate exactly what percentage it'll be.

Yeah, and John, I'll jump in. And, you know, if you think about, obviously, it was, you know, a little under 40% for Q2. And I think as inventory restocks and there's more, you know, inventory for, you know, people are trading in cars, there's more used inventory. And, you know, we're 90 plus percent used today. And, you know, I think that that percent over time in the near term, I think we can sustain it as there's more inventory and restocking and there's more indirect search. I think it would be a lower percentage of our overall going forward. But I think... Yeah, but the units are going to go up, the absolute number of certs. It's a great opportunity.

Yep, yep. And then just on, you mentioned, like, signing of new, like, Tier 1 accounts. I'm curious if the economics are any different if you sign Tier 1 accounts versus others, and maybe if you can share sort of what percentage of your overall accounts are Tier 1.

Yeah, we... Go ahead, Chuck.

No, I was just going to refer to the economics. You know, our economics, you know, for program fees, the technology fee and everything is equal. I mean, there's volume discounts for, you know, large accounts that generate, you know, larger cert volumes and, you know, 3% of the loan amount down to roughly 2% generally based on, you know, 25 cert increments in growth. So, But the general economics would be the same on those. And, John, if you want to talk a little bit about maybe around the Tier 1s.

Yeah, I was just trying to look. I just actually had a report put together yesterday to give me the number of active clients that are over a billion, and that's what we consider a Tier 1 account. So we have... We have approximately 140 credit unions and banks that are over $1 billion in assets. So of the total, it's probably, what, a third, Ross or Chuck?

Yeah, we've got about, you know, active customers as of quarter end, about 400.

I think one thing just to add to her question is, you know, I would think on the program fee, our unit economics will be lower for the larger accounts through the volumes. But you would think on the flip side, on the profit share, those large institutions may have more sophisticated servicing, good platforms, and their results should perhaps be better than the less sophisticated ones. So back to Chuck's deal, I do think there's no materiality difference between the two in aggregate.

Right. Understood. Thank you.

Thanks. Thank you.

Your next question comes from the line of Mike Grundell from Northland Securities. Your line is open.

Yeah. Hey, guys. The expanded loan limit and the expanded term, was that early April, late April? When did you roll that out, and are you seeing anything from it?

Yeah, Mike. Yes, first of all, on loan limits, we were able to get that in a release in mid-March. And one thing to remember is whenever an application is submitted, we keep that active for 30 days. So we still have a little blend of timelines. So loan limit, anything we've decisioned in April had the full impact of the loans, except for about four or five of our institutions that wanted to wait to get that rolled out this month, the next month. And then on the term side, we launched three customers April 1st. We launched seven more customers April 4th or 5th. And then we launched almost all the other ones around, I think, the 14th or 15th of the month. So really, we'll be able to really come back the next quarter and give you a lot more results. We're encouraged by the results. Just the fact that that we were countering, not saying a full yes, but countering a third plus of these applications in the past for asking for larger loan amounts and larger terms. I mean, you've got to know that the close ratio of those you're able to fully say a yes to versus not is much better. So we're actively tracking that and very pleased with this result.

Great. And then just one more. Ross, I think you kind of said in relation to the OEM opportunity that you needed to finish some IT projects. Can we infer from that like hunting for OEM three and four is sort of a later this year kind of event? Or I don't know if you could frame that a little more.

Yeah, we have always, on one of the OEMs that we're close with, they have a project still ongoing that we thought would be wrapped up at the end of the year by an IT project. And our endeavor always fell behind that. And so that vendor is still working. We hear that they're working on their servicing platform. even though it's behind, they do have like a new date out there sometime in the third quarter, early third quarter. And so that means that we can start kind of revisiting how we're going to launch within that organization. So it is late this year, but I think it's fallen behind only because it was always behind one of the other IT projects. And so You know, that's the status of that, and we look forward to reporting some positive momentum here once that project is finished and we're close to launching.

Great. Thanks for the clarification.

You bet, Mike. Thanks, Mike.

Again, to ask a question, you may need to press star 1 on your telephone. Again, that is star 1 on your telephone keypad. And your next question comes from the line of Sagiv Hardmeyer from Jefferies, your line is open.

Sorry, it's actually John Hecht with Jefferies. Hey, John. I apologize. How are you guys? And I apologize if you commented on some of this. I'm bouncing between a few different earnings reports today. And you guys referred to, you called it the close rate, that you would expect some positivity out of that given some of the term and size changes. but that's early on. I'm just wondering, what's your close rate now versus what it was, you know, when you didn't have the headwinds of inventory issues and things like that?

Well, you know, it varies by channel. I mean, we got, you know, Repi, Direct, all that within finance companies versus credit unions and even within the channel. So, you know, our close rate, John, is probably... you know, 30% lower than it has been during pre-pandemic. And a lot of that is you've got the non-prime consumer applying but not being able to afford that offer. And so they aren't going elsewhere. They're just sitting on the sideline. And that's why I believe that we're poised with the new offerings and the longer term, you know, we're in the right position to, you know, we do think that that pricing will start decreasing. It's going to be a slow over the next 18 months, but we're there today. We're going to be there in 18 months, and we should see an uptick of that for sure.

So, I mean, is it fair to think that, you know, you could have just 30% recovery and growth as just sort of conditions normalize? What's the close rate? I would think that's appropriate. Okay. Okay. And then the second question, totally unrelated, but how do you guys perceive about the sensitivity, the refi market to interest rates? How does that interact with each other?

Yeah, that's a question, John, that we did answer a little bit ago. And it ties back to credit unions are always going to have pretty much the lowest cost of capital out there. And they're hungry for auto loans. And I think what we're finding is that, you know, we went through this back in 08 and 09 when rates went up and things were, you know, heading south and credit unions stood in there and continued to fund. You know, they love a three-year average life piece of paper that generates a yield that's probably three to four times that of an investment they could make. So I think we're always going to have credit unions funding that refinance channel as a real tailwind to the company.

Okay. I appreciate that and apologize for asking a redundant question, but thanks very much. No problem. Thanks, John. Thank you, guys.

I will now turn the call over to John Flynn for closing remarks.

Thank you, operator, and thanks to everybody on the phone. Great questions today. As you can tell, we're extremely excited about the quarter and where the company is heading. I think we always talk about it's not a matter of if, it's when. Cars are coming back, and we're going to be there to help fund them. So we're excited about it, and we appreciate everybody's continued support. So thanks for the call.

Thanks, everybody. Great. Thank you.

This concludes this conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.