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spk07: Good day, everyone, and welcome to today's Marriott International Q4 2023 earnings call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, you will have an opportunity to ask questions during the question-and-answer session. You may register to ask a question at any time by pressing the star and 1 on your telephone keypad. Please note this call is being recorded, and I will be standing by should you need any assistance. It is now my pleasure to turn today's program over to Jackie McConaughey.
spk06: Thank you. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Marriott's fourth quarter 2023 earnings call. On the call with me today are Tony Capuano, our President and Chief Executive Officer, Leni Oberg, our Chief Financial Officer and Executive Vice President Development, and Betsy Dahm, our Vice President of Investor Relations. Before we begin, I would like to remind everyone that many of our comments today are not historical facts and are considered forward-looking statements under federal securities laws. These statements are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties, as described in our SEC filings, which could cause future results to differ materially from those expressed in or implied by our comments. Please note that our discussion of revenues across different customer segments refer to property-level revenues. And unless otherwise stated, our rev part, occupancy, ADR, and property level revenue comments reflect system-wide constant currency results for comparable hotels. Statements in our comments in the press release we issued earlier today are effective only today and will not be updated as actual events unfold. You can find our earnings release and reconciliations of all non-GAAP financial measures referred to in our remarks today on our Investor Relations website. And now I will turn the call over to Tony.
spk16: Thank you, Jackie, and good morning, everyone. Our team produced fantastic results in 2023. We continue to experience strong momentum in our business around the world thanks to solid demand for travel and our diverse portfolio of 30-plus leading brands. Full-year global rent par rose nearly 15%, and net rooms grew 4.7%. leading to excellent earnings and cash flow. In the fourth quarter, global REVPAR increased over 7% year over year, driven by roughly equal gains in ADR and occupancy. Groom, which comprised 23% of room nights, was again the standout customer segment. Compared to the year-ago quarter, group revenues rose 9% globally and 7% in the U.S. and Canada. And group is shaping up to have another solid year in 2024. At the end of last year, full year 2024 group revenues were pacing up nearly 13% globally and 11% in the U.S. and Canada on a year-over-year basis, driven by robust increases in both room nights and ADR. Leisure transient accounted for 44% of global room nights in the quarter. this segment has by far grown the fastest coming out of COVID, with global leisure transient revenues in the fourth quarter nearly 50% above the same quarter in 2019. Even with this strong growth, demand has remained resilient. Fourth quarter global room nights rose 5% over the year-ago quarter, leading to a 6% leisure transient revenue growth worldwide. In the US and Canada, leisure revenues were up 2%. Business Transient contributed 33% of global roommates in the fourth quarter. Demand from small and medium-sized corporates remained robust, and while large corporates are still lagging, they continued to post volume increases. Solid gains in ADR drove Business Transient revenues up 7% globally and 3% in the U.S. and Canada. Our powerful Marriott Bonvoy loyalty program grew to over 196 million members at the end of the year. Member penetration of global room nights reached new highs in the fourth quarter at 69% in the U.S. and Canada and 62% global. Our digital channels, and mobile in particular, remain key drivers of growth at a lower cost to our own. Our Marriott Bonvoy app contributed 22% more room nights in 2023 than in the prior year. We are focused on improving the customer experience across all our digital and other booking channels through the multi-year technology transformation we have underway. Enhancing engagement with our members outside of hotel stays through our numerous successful Marriott Bonvoy collaborations, including our co-branded credit cards also remains a priority. Our growing portfolio of 31 credit cards across 11 countries had record global card member acquisitions last year, and card spend for the year grew 11%. On the development front, despite a challenging financing environment in the U.S. and Europe, we signed a record 891 organic management, franchise, and license agreements in 2023, representing approximately 164,000 rooms. Additionally, we ended the year with a new high of roughly 573,000 rooms in our pipeline. We expect another year of strong global signings in 2024 and are already off to an incredible start. We also saw a meaningful acceleration in net rooms growth last year to 4.7%, the highest growth since 2019. Conversions helped again in 2023, accounting for 25% of organic room additions and 40% of organic room signings. For 2024, we anticipate net room growth of 5.5% to 6%. This includes around 37,000 rooms from MGM. The first set of these rooms at New York, New York became available on our Marriott channels at the end of January. with the remaining properties expected to be available by the middle of March. While it is very early days, we are incredibly pleased with the initial booking pace. We're excited about adding these amazing properties to our portfolio and enhancing our distribution in Las Vegas and other cities across the U.S. We remain confident in the three-year net room's compound annual growth rate we discussed at our investor meeting in September. of 5% to 5.5% from year-end 2022 to year-end 2025. As we focus on expanding our lodging offerings for owners, franchisees, and guests, we're making significant progress globally in the high-growth mid-scale space. We are in numerous deal discussions for Citi Express in the Caribbean and Latin America, or Cala region, and for Four Points Express in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. Here in the U.S., we celebrated the first groundbreaking for Studio Res in Fort Myers, Florida in January and have over 300 additional potential deals under discussion in around 150 markets. As we strive to offer more options for our stakeholders, we're also working on a new U.S. transient mid-scale brand for both new build and conversion. At the other end of the chain scale, our luxury distribution is currently over 50% larger than our next closest competitor, and that lead is expanding. In 2023, we had record luxury signings with 58 new deals, and we added 29 new luxury hotels to our portfolio. In closing, 2023 was a banner year for Merriam, and I am optimistic about what lies ahead. The demand for all types of travel remains strong, even as the rebound impact from the pandemic has waned. The fundamentals for our industry are outstanding, and we are determined to grow our industry-leading position. We remain focused on offering the best brands and experiences to the most valuable and engaged guests while expanding the broadest and deepest portfolio of global properties and offerings so we can continue to connect people around the world through the power of travel. I want to thank our Marriott teams around the world for their remarkable dedication and excellent work. And now, let me turn the call over to Lene to discuss our financial results in more detail.
spk09: Thank you, Tony. I'll walk you through our strong 2023 financial results. In the fourth quarter, U.S. and Canada road part increased over 3% year over year, primarily due to higher ADR. International REVPAR rose 17%, driven by an 8 percentage point gain in occupancy and a 4% rise in ADR. Asia Pacific, again, experienced the largest year-over-year REVPAR increase. REVPAR rose 81% in Greater China, helped by the last quarter of easy comparisons to COVID lockdowns in the year-ago quarter, and grew 13% in Asia Pacific, excluding China. For the quarter, total gross fee revenues grew 10% to $1.24 billion, reflecting higher rev par, room additions, and strong growth in our co-brand credit card fees. Incentive management fees, or IMFs, rose 17%, reaching $218 million, driven by another quarter of significant increases in Asia Pacific. For the full year, gross fees rose 18%, with record IMS that were nearly 20% higher than our prior peak in 2019. Owned lease and other revenue net of direct expenses reached $151 million in the quarter and included substantially higher termination fees, primarily due to $63 million associated with the termination of a development project. G&A of $330 million was impacted by a $27 million litigation reserve for an international hotel, as well as timing of performance-related compensation, an increase in bad debt expense, and higher professional fees, which included costs associated with our intellectual property restructuring transactions. Fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA grew 10% to nearly $1.2 billion for the full year, adjusted EBITDA was 21% higher than in 2022. Thanks to our team's excellent tax planning efforts that reflect evolving global tax laws, we had a tax benefit of $267 million in the quarter. This was due to over $400 million of favorable discrete items related to international IP restructuring strategies and the release of a tax valuation allowance. the fourth quarter effective tax rate was slightly higher than last year's and above our previous expectations due to jurisdictional mixed shift. At the hotel level, despite meaningful wage and benefit inflation, we maintained profit margins in our U.S.-managed hotels in the quarter and for the year compared to both 2022 and 2019, a strong performance. Importantly, our guest surveys indicate that customer satisfaction continues to rise. In December, our intent to recommend score achieved its highest monthly score in over five years. Our asset-light business model once again generated significant cash, with almost $3.2 billion of cash provided by operating activities in 2023, up 34% year over year. Our loyalty program was a source of cash, even after factoring in the final year of reduced payments from the credit card companies resulting from the amendments we entered into in 2020. In 2024, we expect loyalty cash flow to be roughly neutral. Now, let's talk more about 2024. Our full-year outlook assumes a steady, albeit slower-growing, global economy. It also reflects normalized lodging demand in most regions around the world, with Asia Pacific expected to see higher growth in other regions as it continues to have some benefit from COVID recovery, as well as additional international airlift. In 2024, ResPAR growth is expected to be driven by another meaningful increase in group revenue, continued improvement in business transient demand, which will be helped by mid-single-digit special corporate rate increases and slower but still growing leisure revenues. We're off to a strong start, with January rev par up 7% globally, reflecting continued strong demand around the world, particularly in international markets. International rev par rose 14%, and U.S. and Canada rev par increased 4% in the month. With year-over-year comparisons easiest in January and Easter shifting from April to March this year, global rev par for the first quarter could increase 4% to 5%. For the full year, we anticipate a 3% to 5% rise in global rev par. Growth is expected to remain higher in international markets than in the U.S. and Canada, with particular strength in Asia-Pacific. The sensitivity of a 1% change in full-year 2024 REVPAR versus 2023 could be around $50 to $60 million of REVPAR-related fees. For the full year, gross fees could rise 6% to 8% to $5.1 to $5.2 billion, with non-REVPAR-related fees rising 9% to 10%, driven by strong credit card and residential branding fee growth. Owned, leased, and other revenues net of expenses are expected to total $320 to $330 million, 17% to 20% lower than 2023 due to meaningfully lower termination fees given the large termination fee in the fourth quarter of 23, a property we sold last summer in Cala flipping from owned to managed, and renovations at several owned hotels. We expect 2024 G&A expense could be flat to up 2% year over year. There are a few discrete one-time items from 2023 that are expected to offset wage and benefit increases. Whole year adjusted EBITDA could increase between 5% and 8% to roughly $4.9 to $5 billion. Note that our 2024 effective tax rate is expected to be around 25%. while we expect our underlying core cash tax rate to remain in the low 20s percent range. Guidance details for the full year and first quarter are in the press release. Please note that first quarter results are expected to be impacted by a few items. First, the timing of residential branding fees is expected to result in these non-REF PAR related fees being meaningfully lower in the first quarter but up nicely for the full year. Second, owned, leased, and other revenue net of expenses will be lower due to the renovations on several owned properties, as well as the CALA property that slipped from owned to managed. And finally, G&A in the year-ago quarter benefited from several one-time items, while this year's first quarter includes MGM integration costs. Our capital allocation philosophy remains the same. We're committed to our investment-grade ratings investing in growth that is accreted to shareholder value, and then returning excess capital to shareholders through a combination of a modest cash dividend and share repurchases. We're pleased with the significant value we returned to shareholders in 2023 and expect strong capital returns again in 2020. For 2024, factoring in the $500 million of required cash in the fourth quarter, For the purchase of the Sheridan Grand Chicago, capital returns to shareholders could be between $4.1 and $4.3 billion. Full-year investment spending could total $1 to $1.2 billion. This includes another year of higher than historical investment in technology, the vast majority of which is expected to be reimbursed over time. The $500 million for the Sheridan Grand Chicago consists of $200 million of CapEx, and $300 million in elimination of a previously recorded guarantee liability. Investment spending is also expected to incorporate roughly $200 million for our own lease portfolio and include spending for the renovation and the elegant portfolios in Barbados and the completion of the W Union Square renovations. We'll look to recycle these assets and sign long-term management contracts after renovations are complete. As Tony mentioned, we're also thrilled about our development growth prospects, both inside and outside the U.S. We continue to gain market share with 7% of open rooms and 18% of rooms under construction globally at the end of last year. Tony and I are now happy to take your questions. Operator?
spk07: Thank you. At this time, if you would like to ask a question, please press the star and 1 on your telephone keypad. you may remove yourself from the queue by pressing star two. Once again, that is star and one if you would like to ask a question. And we will take our first question from Joe Greff with J.P. Morgan. Your line is now open.
spk04: Good morning, guys. Thank you for asking questions. Lene, I was hoping you can review the MGM transaction and what's included in fee contribution for this year. And then if you can maybe clarify what the integration costs that you refer to in your prepared comments related to the MGM license deal.
spk09: Yeah, sure. So it's really a modest amount of G&A, but it's just worth noting in the year-over-year comparison in Q1 that as we expect all of those hotels to transition on to Marriott systems, that will all be done in Q1. When we think about the fee contribution, as we've talked about before, Joe, they will be coming on in Q1, and we expect that business to ramp up over the year. There's not a particular number that I would give you now, but just a reflection that it is related to a percentage of the hotel revenues that fits into our franchise fee model as a result of the license agreement over the year.
spk04: Great. And then I know you gave us some detail in terms of investment spend this year, and the Sheraton Chicago is a big chunk of that. Is the $500 million all cash out the door? I know there's the $200 million and $300 million to, I guess, satisfy the getting out of that guarantee. Can you provide a little bit more clarity on that? And then how much of the billion is sort of aspirational and not spoken for at this point?
spk09: Yeah, no, it's a good clarification question, Joe. That $500 million is cash out the door, and we would expect that to occur in Q4 of 2024. But to help you understand what we're really considering capital investment, we wanted to clarify to say that $200 million of the $500 million relates to the purchase of the underlying land. on the Sheridan Grant, Chicago. And so that is in CapEx, while the rest reflects a liability that we had established on the balance sheet, frankly, years ago as part of the overall transaction. So it does obviously impact our available cash for the year, but is in there. And when you think about unidentified capital expenditures in that number, of the one to 1.2, it's really quite modest.
spk05: Great, thanks so much. Thank you.
spk07: We'll take questions from Sean Kelly from Bank of America. Hi, good morning, everyone.
spk12: Tony and Lene, just wondering if you could just start with, you know, maybe kind of current state of the development environment, Tony. you know, obviously global interest rates have cooperated a little bit for, you know, the hope of developers and just sort of what you're probably the same thing on the construction cost landscape. So as we sit here today, I know it's only, you know, four months or so from your big update at the analyst day, but could you just give us, you know, latest sense of the land, how some of those conversations went at Alice and what people should expect on the organic side for, for signings and more importantly, probably starting to move into construction.
spk16: Of course. So, As we mentioned in the prepared remarks on the heels of a record signings year, it's more anecdotal than anything else, but in terms of deal volume through the first month of the year, it's really encouraging. And we're seeing strong momentum both on submissions for new build projects around the world as well as continued really encouraging momentum on the conversion side. In terms of the environment coming out of Alice, I'm going to ramble here a little bit because I think there are both some positives and negatives that we heard from the owner and franchisee community about their expectations for 2024. On the positive side of the ledger, as you point out, there is a sense that there will be continued relief on the interest rate side as we get in particularly the back half of 2024. There is an expectation maybe in parallel that the hotel transaction market will start to be a bit more active in the back half of the year as well. And while there is still admittedly some gap in the bid and the ask between sellers and buyers, it feels like that gap is continuing to narrow, which will likely lead, we expect, to a little more active transaction environment, which has always historically been Good news for us on the conversion front. When you pivot to the more challenging side of the ledger, you do still have lenders thinking about compliance with proposed regulatory environment that will perhaps impact their ability to really open the faucet in terms of the amount of debt financing that they make available for new construction. But there again, it's one of the reasons we're so enthusiastic about our entry into mid-scale. When we talk to our franchise partners on the mid-scale front, they feel like the size of those commitments is something that they're going to have a decent measure of success in procuring debt. And then the last thing I would remind you is the obvious, that While we stay very focused on the availability of debt and its impact on our growth trajectory, that is largely a U.S., Canada, and Western Europe attribute. When you look at the pace of growth we're seeing across Asia Pacific, across the Middle East, that growth does not seem to be particularly impacted by the ups and downs of the availability of debt. I think you also had a question about construction costs. And so maybe I'll expand my answer a little bit. When we think about potential impediments to growth, the availability of debt is the one that I think we're most focused on. Supply chain issues, which we were talking with you about a year ago, are not nearly as severe as we saw several quarters ago. Construction costs have come down a little bit, and they're rising year over year at lower rates than we saw a year or two ago. So on that front, I think we're pretty encouraged, but it's really the ability to source debt for new construction is the area that Lene and the team are most focused on.
spk12: Thank you very much.
spk07: Thank you. We'll take our next question from Sneeds Rose with Citi. Your line is now open.
spk03: Hi, thank you. I was just wondering, you know, when we look at the sort of core metrics that you guys provide in terms of EBITDA for the year, unit growth, and capital return, all of those at least relative to our forecast are, you know, in line or better and look, you know, similar for consensus forecasts. But your operating EPS outlook is quite a bit lower than consensus, and I was just wondering if there's any one or two things that you might point to where you think maybe there was a a difference in sort of expectations versus what you expect to put up? Because it doesn't sound like it's like a tax rate issue. I was just wondering if maybe there's something else there.
spk09: Yeah, no, thanks, Steve, very much. No, I appreciate that. Yes, tax rate is probably the biggest item when you think about it. You know, first of all, just remember that in 23, there is the reality of this extra termination fee. So when you look at year-over-year growth, that then impacts how you look at 24 over 23. And so if you adjust out for the oddballs of both the litigation reserve and the performance, the termination fee, and you take into consideration that we've got probably about a one-point higher book tax rate, and I do emphasize it's a book tax rate rather than cash. Our cash tax rate is essentially staying the same, thanks to the great work that the team has done in working through our global tax planning. But when you look at it from a book perspective, it's about a point higher overall. And you put those together and you can, you know, do your math there, and that is where you then get to, you know, something that looks from an adjusted EPS that looks on 24 that looks close to double digits.
spk03: Okay, that's helpful. And I just want to Tony, you just mentioned in your opening remarks that some of the large corporate group bookings continue to lag, which is something we've kind of heard for a while relative to smaller groups. So I was just wondering, could you maybe just talk a little bit more about what you're hearing and maybe expecting as we go forward? Do you think that's just kind of impaired for the foreseeable future, or is it something that you think could improve over time, just maybe some more color there?
spk16: Yeah, of course. So really my comment was that, let me break it down into two buckets. When I talked about business transients, the small and medium-sized corporates, the demand coming out of those groups continues to be quite robust. And my comment about large corporates lagging is really sort of in reference to a pre-pandemic environment. But with that said, we continue to see incremental growth even coming out of the large corporates quarter over quarter.
spk09: Yeah, just to be clear, that was on the transient side. On the group side, we're actually, as we talked about on the group pace, it's really still a very strong number. And I think to me, one of the interesting things is we're now getting back to Some of the way it looked before were 75% of the group that we're expecting in 24 is already on the books, which if you look at that a year ago, that was only 65%. So it still really points out that with this 11% pace that we're looking at for 24 and 12% for 25 in the U.S., that actually the corporate group as well as the other types of groups is still quite strong.
spk03: Thank you, appreciate it.
spk07: Thank you. We'll take our next question from Richard Clark with Berenstain. Your line is open.
spk11: Thanks very much for taking my question. Maybe just one on the SG&A costs. You gave some color on why it was a little bit higher, but just wondering whether you can just do the bridge from the 255 guidance you gave at Q3. What wasn't anticipated there? Was it this IP restructuring, and why did that suddenly happen in Q4? And maybe some color on the bad debt. Is there anything to read across from that as well?
spk09: Right. So this is really largely about timing. We've taken you through the litigation reserve, and then there's obviously the usual quarter-to-quarter fluctuations that reflect everything from closing deals and travel expense to, as you probably remember, when we go back to Q1 of 2023, we were still in the process of getting back to being fully staffed, which then ramps up during the year. And then, as you know, performance compensation, performance-related compensation then takes into consideration how the company is doing against its targets. And you put all those together and the constant analysis of your positions of receivables from all of your hotels around the world and just really reflects some timing of when they fell in Q3 versus Q4. And there again, when you think about looking at next year, you do see that we're talking about flat of 2%, which really reflects that there were a number of items this year.
spk11: Okay, that makes sense. Maybe if I can just ask a follow-up. Just at the CMD, you gave RESPAR guidance for the two-year stack of three to six, net unit growth guidance of four to five. Obviously, both of those are going to have to accelerate into 2025 to kind of get to the midpoint? Is that what you're anticipating, that their drive is to get RevPAR and NUG acceleration in 2025?
spk16: Yeah, so Richard, maybe I'll take the NUG question first. As we talked a little bit when we were together in Miami, we continue to think that as you consider NUG, It is less instructive to look at a single year and much more instructive to look at rooms growth over a multi-year period. In some ways, the MGM rooms coming into the system slipping from the back of 23 into early 24 is the best illustration of that. Notwithstanding MGM sliding into 24, As you know, we ended up a little higher than anticipated in 23 at 4.7% net unit growth. We expect to be at a meaningfully higher number this year because of the impact of the MGM openings. And when we look at the three-year CAGR that we discussed at the Security Analyst Conference, we continue to be very confident in our ability to deliver that mid single digit range of about five to five and a half percent. You know, and then I think just on a more macro basis, you know, we've not made any major changes in terms of our longer term outlook. We obviously have a little more visibility and clarity into this year. now that the teams around the world have gone through all their numbers. But we've really not revisited anything beyond 24 and continue to be quite confident in what we talked about from a Rev Park perspective.
spk09: Just a reminder that when we go through the process, a lot of what we're trying to do at the security analyst meeting is to help you understand or range from a modeling perspective. And it's done before we go through the budgeting process. So actually, as you know, we ended up with a really strong year in 2023. And when we look at it overall from a growth in our hotel revenue system, we're right where we would have expected to be and very pleased about the demand that we're seeing both on the oc and the rain side as we look into 24. okay that's helpful thank you very much thank you thank you we'll take our next question from stephen grambling with morgan stanley your line is now open hi good morning um
spk13: I know you touched on the introductory remarks, but could you help us bridge the gap from thinking about room growth and REBPAR growth versus the gross managed and franchise fee growth? Essentially, is this a mismatch that should continue beyond 2025 due to what you see in the pipeline, or is it more to do with the MGM contribution and how that may ramp?
spk09: Yeah, definitely not from an MGM perspective. I think As we talked about, the fundamental model still actually works very well. We had a couple anomalies going on in 2023, but when you think about it broadly, the fundamental model of RevCar Plus fees continues to work fine. We've got the reality that when you think about putting together the REVPAR scenario, you're getting benefit across the board from the growth in the rooms as well as from IMFs. And as you saw, we're talking about a really strong continued IMF growth. And then, of course, the reflection that our non-REVPAR fees are expected to grow 9% to 10% in... in 2024. So I don't expect the fundamental kind of growth in fee algorithm to be different than we've talked about before.
spk13: Great. Thanks. And maybe one other quick follow-up to the last question, which was around the investor day in September. I guess just very, very big picture. What's changed from then to now as we think about that multi-year algorithm?
spk09: I would say very little in terms of the basic equation. I mean, frankly, 23 ended up being very strong. And if you think about the guidance that we gave, we ended up higher than the high end. of what we gave the security analyst meeting by $6 million. So you are starting off with a higher base. And then, again, we're looking, you know, a lot of the numbers that we talked about at the security analyst meeting were over a three-year time frame, and now we're being able to give you more specificity about 2024. But the fundamental about Red Park Road, but net rooms growth, some operating leverage, continues to work. You know, one thing I do think is interesting when you look back at G&A as a percentage of fees, which being a fee-driven business, that is, I think, the best relationship given the fluctuations in owned lease as we sell hotels. And that is, you look at 2019, we were at G&A as a percentage of gross fees around close to 25%. And the numbers that we've given you today show that number having dropped down to under 20%, which I think does show you the continued operating leverage that we're getting out of the model.
spk16: And I might just build on that a little bit. And for those of you that have been covering us for a long time, you know there's a phrase that guides almost everything we do, that phrase being success is never final. And while we are very encouraged by the continued improvement in the G and A ratio, you can rest assured that is a principal focus area for the senior leadership team with an eye towards continuing to improve that efficiency.
spk05: Great. Thanks so much. Sure.
spk07: Thank you. We'll take our next question from Chad Bagan with Macquarie. Your line is open.
spk01: Morning. Thanks for taking my question. I wanted to ask a question related to the REVPAR guidance, I guess, kind of looking at the chain scales. So based on how you report, I guess, premium, which some of us would consider upper upscale, continues to be the strongest in the fourth quarter, and that's kind of what we're seeing year to date. As you think about, I guess, luxury and upper upscale versus some of the other segments, do you have a view in terms of what will kind of lead – 2024, and is there still a lot of room for ADR increases in upper upscale given what you're seeing with group pacing? Thank you.
spk09: Sure. So let me comment on a couple things. First of all, when we think about special corporate rate, you've heard us talk about kind of continued building of that demand. And while it's not back to 2019 levels, it is continuing to, at the margin, grow a little bit faster. And we had high single-digit growth rate in that segment in 23, and we're looking at strong mid-single-digit rate growth in that segment in 24. So that is absolutely, as you look at that, plus the group strength, which when I think about the group pace of that 11%, I would say between... rate in rooms and ADR that is probably two-thirds, one-third rooms and ADR. So you're still seeing some very nice growth there. So clearly the premium segment is, I think, going to be the biggest beneficiary of that increase in demand. On the select service side, you saw that segment really come out of COVID the fastest. and one that has moderated, as you've seen towards the end of this year, we would expect that to be steady-eddy, but not really get the benefit of some of the things that I just mentioned. And then we continue to expect to see luxury continue to do really well. And so there is opportunity there, both on the rate and oxide. But I think the two areas I mentioned before are probably the ones to highlight as you think about the tiers.
spk16: And I might build on that last luxury comment from Lena. You heard in my opening remarks about the momentum we have in extending our lead in luxury from a footprint perspective. And fourth quarter 23 versus fourth quarter 22 on a global basis, we saw luxury rent bar up 10%. And so we continue to see pretty compelling economics in the luxury segment and industry-leading footprint.
spk01: Thank you. Appreciate it. And then just to housekeeping, IMFs at the end of the year, North American properties, what percentage were payers during the year, maybe versus peak?
spk09: Yeah, sure. This is where it gets a little complicated, but let's do it. And that is in 23, for the full year, would you like quarter or year? Which do you prefer?
spk01: Year, unless the exit rate is massively different.
spk09: So 31% for the full year in U.S. and Canada versus 56%. However, there's really, as you remember, there was a big change in our limited service portfolio as a result of the HPT hotels leaving the system. So full service hotels in 23, 40% of our managed full service hotels were earning IMFs in the U.S. 45% at peak, really limited services, the big change of 19% in 23 versus 66% in 19, but many of those hotels are no longer in our system. Then when you look at international, it's really overwhelmingly quite similar as to when it was in 2019. So for the entire company, 23, 68% are earning IMF, versus 72%. And if you adjust for that limited service portfolio that I discussed, it was 70% in 2019. So we're really getting to quite similar levels. And as I said, international, it's really overwhelmingly the same as it was in 19.
spk01: Great. Thanks for all the details. Appreciate it.
spk07: Thank you. Let's take our next question from Brent Montour with Barclays. Your line is now open.
spk14: Hey, good morning, everybody. Thanks for taking my question. So maybe for Tony, just curious in terms of the development momentum going out on the ground in China today, what sort of baked into the guidance in terms of China openings? Or maybe you could answer it qualitatively. Is that market's opening momentum changed now versus three or six months ago?
spk16: Yes, so we continue to see the momentum on the development side in China that we talked about a quarter or two ago, both in terms of what I would call intake, meaning the volume of MOUs that we're signing, the volume of new deals that we're approving, but just as compelling in terms of driving opening volume during the pandemic, we saw a variety of projects across the pipeline pause construction, and we're seeing the vast majority of those paused projects back under construction moving towards opening. So I think on early pipeline, if you will, approved and signed deals and under construction deals, we see encouraging trends in all three of those categories.
spk14: Okay, that's encouraging.
spk09: Go ahead. Can I just add one thing that I think kind of helps frame your question, and that is when we look at our overall growth in rooms in Asia Pacific, we're in the high single digits that we're looking at both in 23 and 24, including China and Asia Pacific outside of China. Just really strong demand for our brands across the various scales.
spk14: Okay. Thank you for that. And then just as a follow-up also on development, just a longer-term question, sort of thinking about reflecting back on 23 as a year where capital formation and debt financing was harder to come by, and that sort of weighed on U.S. new hotel starts. Do you think we'll be looking back on 23 – when we get to sort of 25 or 26 and be talking about something of an air pocket in terms of new hotel openings because of 23, or do you think it's not as meaningful and there's other things that will offset? How do you think about that when you do your longer-term planning?
spk09: Yes, no, I think you make a good point. As Tony talked about in his response to the question about the financing environment, there's no doubt that financing – availability for new build construction of hotels is limited. And the strong brands get the most of it, but you've got some uncertainty around bank capital regulations, et cetera. So it is clearly down meaningfully from the kind of pace of new build that was in 2019. I think what you have seen on the good side is that our conversions as a percentage of room signings has gone up meaningfully, and we look forward to that continuing. But, yes, I hope that that is the case and that we're kind of seeing a bit of an air pocket in the U.S. As we talked about outside the U.S., we're not as dependent. I will call out Europe, which also has a lot of the same characteristics as the U.S. on the new-build construction side. But we are really pleased with what we're seeing on the studio res demand side and ability to start getting those shovels in the ground. And so there we are hopeful that you'll start to see that pace pick up as the construction costs, the demand side continues to be very strong, as well as financing ability improves.
spk16: And I might just build on that comment about mid-scale. Leni and I tend to climb over each other with enthusiasm to talk about mid-scale. We think there's a tremendous market opportunity from a demand perspective. There is deep appetite from our franchise community. We think the cost of developing mid-scale will help our partners navigate what is still a challenging financing environment. And the other thing that is exciting to us, you'll recall the last number of quarters in select service broadly, we talked about a lengthening of the construction cycle. Lene and I were both down in Fort Myers putting a shovel in the ground for the first studio rest. And our partners there talked about an expectation of opening that hotel in at most 13 months with an eye towards trying to get it open in 12 months. And so the Ability to get mid-scale deals signed, financed, shovels in the ground, and open more quickly than what we've seen with a lot of other tiers in our portfolio is another factor in our enthusiasm for our entry into mid-scale.
spk05: Thanks, everyone. Thanks.
spk07: Thank you. We'll take our next question from Kevin Copeland with TD Cowan. Your line is now open.
spk15: Thank you so much. Given how well the MGM deal is starting off, as you think about your pipeline talks, what's the outlook for other large partnerships akin to the MGM deal going forward? Thanks.
spk16: Yes, so Leni and I were both in Las Vegas this past weekend for Super Bowl, and so I'll make a couple comments. Number one, when you look at the vibrancy of that market, you look at how Effectively, the city was able to accommodate an event like that. You likely heard the NFL commissioner talking about how anxious the league is to get back to Las Vegas. I think both of us left the market really enthusiastic about what this partnership is going to offer our guests around the world and our Bonvoy members. In terms of your specific question, As we talked about when we announced the transaction, it is a creative opportunity for us. Where I think you will continue to see lots of activity for us is in traditional conversions, but in the category of multi-unit conversions. You heard us a quarter ago talk about a terrific multi-unit conversion in Vietnam with a partner called VinPearl. and our teams around the world are actively working on a number of multi-unit conversions. To the extent a unique opportunity like MGM presents itself, I think we'll roll up our sleeves and see if we can make sense of it. We're really excited about what MGM does for Bonvoy, and if those sorts of opportunities present themselves, we are certainly open to pursuing them.
spk05: Great. Very helpful. Thanks, Tony. Sure.
spk07: Thank you. We'll take our next question from Michael Bellisario with Barrett. Your line is now open.
spk10: Thanks. Good morning, everyone. Good morning. Just on the capital allocation front, there's been a handful of reports. There's just a few smaller brands for sale, particularly domestically. Are you seeing any more interesting tuck-in M&A opportunities, and does the math pencil any better or worse, especially relative to where you're – where your stock is trading today?
spk09: Well, so great question. And as we have said for a long time, we've been very consistent in our message about really always being willing to entertain the way that we grow. We have grown very successfully, both in terms of tuck-in brand acquisitions as well as growing organic new brands. and growing that way around the world. We will continue to do that. We also are going to stay very price disciplined in terms of looking at both the price that you would be paying for the existing distribution as well as for the growth opportunities. We are really aware of looking at where something could add value something unique to our portfolio, whether it is in a certain part of the world, as we did with the Citi Express deal, that really was a tremendous way for us to enter the mid-scale space in a really attractive market like Mexico at an absolutely reasonable price. So I think in that regard, you know, you've got to look at all the elements. And what's out there, as you know, depends very much on the seller's expectations of what they're looking for. I would say that over time, we hope to see that those opportunities continue to be there and that we're going to remain as disciplined as we have before in looking at them.
spk16: I'll just build on Leni's comment. I think this historical blend of considering acquisitions where we think they fill an opportunity in our brand architecture or accelerate our growth in a geography where we're not happy with our pace of organic growth. But also looking at the launch of organic platforms is a strategy that has served us well and a strategy that will continue to guide our thinking about adding new platforms. You know, it's interesting. I was looking at some numbers last night. Autograph, which was a platform in the soft brand space that we launched from scratch. Between Open and Pipeline, we have more than 400 hotels. And AC by Marriott, which was a platform that we acquired in Spain that at time of acquisition, I think, had 80 or 90 hotels. Today, between Open and Pipeline, has nearly 400 hotels. And so there are a variety of strategies to add telling platforms to the portfolio, and we'll continue to look at both.
spk10: Got it. That's helpful. And then just one quick follow-up on mid-scale. What's the owner profile there look like, thinking about the mix of existing Marriott franchisees versus new owners, and would you expect that mix to be similar for the new brand? Thanks.
spk09: Yeah, it's very similar. You know, a great mix, always welcoming new owners into the are stable of owners and franchisees, but I would say when I think about the studio res, some of the blend of what we're seeing in terms of what I call the onesies and twosies where somebody is kind of in a particular market, been very successful and wants to build a hotel there, I would say many of them in the studio res space reflect multi-unit expectations on the part of partners of ours who we've been working with for a long time.
spk05: Thank you.
spk07: We'll take our next question from David Katz with Jefferies. Your line is now open.
spk05: Hi, David. Hi, good morning, everyone.
spk08: I apologize. I wanted to just drill a little bit deeper into the conversion discussion, if I may. Just looking at the percentage of your pipeline versus what we've seen elsewhere, if you could talk more about where those are coming from, what the strategies are, whether there's any change in the landscape, you know, geographies, whether there's a change in pricing. You know, what's new with it? It's been such an important discussion for the past year or so among everyone, including yourselves.
spk16: David Morgan Sure. So, conversions have always been an important part of our growth story in a climate where the debt markets for new construction are somewhat constricted. The importance of conversions is elevated. As we talked about in the opening, really compelling numbers in 2023 with 25% of our openings and 40% of our signings in the conversion category. They are coming in terms of type of project, pretty typical of what we've seen over the last number of years. A good mixture of conversions from other brands and with such a compelling stack of soft brands with luxury collection, autograph, and tribute. Lots of conversions coming from the world of independence as well. From a geographical perspective, not necessarily a shift in strategy, but we are seeing in, for instance, some of the Asia-Pacific markets, which historically have been disproportionately new-build. We are seeing some uptick in conversion activity. Our pursuit of conversion opportunities is quite deliberate, and it's resulting in deals like the one I mentioned earlier in Vietnam.
spk07: We will take our next question from Patrick Schultz with Truist Securities. Your line is now open.
spk02: Hey, good morning, everyone. Good morning. I want to drill down a little bit on the credit card fees. It looks like you're expecting a big drop. step up in, if I understand it correctly, a step up in growth rate for 2024, which actually, I think you said 9 to 10, which, if I'm correct, is a little bit lower than the investor day of 12%. But, you know, specifically with that step up, are you expecting that from primarily new card signups or more so from sort of same user spend? Thank you.
spk09: Right, sure. So first of all, kind of being clear, the difference between the growth rates between 23 and 24, I would not expect to be very different across the credit cards. They grew 9% to 10% in 23, and we would expect them to do fairly similarly in 24. That is overwhelmingly a function of increase in the number of cardholders. As you've heard us talk about, we've been really successful In adding credit cards in a number of countries, we've really expanded that program quite a bit. And in some of the markets, I'll point out Japan as an example, we've just seen really wonderful acceptance of the bond credit card. So in that respect, I'd say the growth that we would expect in those fees comes overwhelmingly from having additional cardholders. And then overall, a really, really very small amount related to a typical cardholder spend. Now, when I look at overall non-rep part fees, I think that's where it gets a little bit interesting because you are dealing with things like residential, where you see residential branding fees tied to when those units open for occupancy, so they're quite lumpy. So as I explained in Q1, we expect them to be meaningfully lower in Q1 than Q1 in 23, while for the full year, we actually are seeing that business do very well, and we expect year over year to see fantastic growth in branding fees overall for the year at 24 over 23. So when you look overall at the non-REVPAR fees, we're excited to see them continue to grow at these roughly double-digit sorts of numbers for another year.
spk07: And we will take our next question from Robin Farley with UBS. Your line is now open.
spk00: Great. Thanks for taking the question. Circling back to the unit growth, and I know you've given a lot of great color around it, just looking at the kind of two-year CAGR you'd given at the investor day, excluding MGM when the timing of that wasn't quite known, it was kind of implying that 24 and 25 would be up, excluding MGM in the kind of 4% to 5% range. And I think the 24 guide today, XMGM is up in the kind of 3-4% range, so maybe expecting an acceleration to 5-6% growth next year. And just wondering, I know you talked about the likelihood that conversions will be a higher percent of that. You also recently announced a franchise agreement in China that The timing wasn't entirely clear. It was kind of potentially over the next three years it could be adding, I don't know if it would be like 50 basis points a year. I guess I wonder if you could tell us whether that franchising agreement, how much of that you expect to be driving the acceleration next year. Just kind of help put some color around the acceleration. Thank you.
spk09: Sure. So I'm going to do the last question first, and then at some point, Tony, feel free to jump in to add more color. But let's first talk about Delinex, which we're really excited about our relationship there, where they're a terrific, large hospitality company in China, and we're looking forward to having the opportunity to convert a number of hotels And we actually didn't give a time frame. So it would just be as part of our normal growth in China and as we look at our overall rooms growth. So there's not a particular kind of specific sort of 10, 20, 30, 40 basis points associated with the conversion of a number of those hotels into tributes. We are, again, really excited about working with them on the opportunity, but it's just part of our overall rooms growth. As I said, the signings that we're seeing in Greater China are very encouraging, both in 23 and as we move into 24, that's really in addition to what you're talking to about the Delinex deal and that is where I talked about the rooms growth in Asia in the high single digits, which, again, is just a great reflection of the desire for our brands. When you ask about the basic taggers for rooms growth relative to the security analyst meeting that we gave in September, I think you really have to kind of go back to what Tony said in his earlier comment, is that these deals can be lumpy, whether it's City Express, whether it's MGM, whether it's a large conversion deal that we do. And so, you know, You really need to think about the numbers that we gave that were 5 to 5.5 for the three-year cater, which we continue to be really confident in and excited about. We ended up a little bit higher on our net roots growth in 23 than the 4.2 to 4.5 range that we gave, and that's really a reflection of the steady, strong demand for our brand. so that then when we look at the MGM and the continuation of turning these routes from our pipeline into openings, we actually see it as being essentially the same as where we were back at the SAM. And then again, you have to kind of be looking at it not solely within the context of one year.
spk16: And Robin, I think the only other question embedded was about conversion volumes. And we mentioned in the open that our openings in 23 were about 25% conversions. Even if you look at 24 expected openings ex-MGM, we expect some acceleration to about 30% of those openings being conversions. And when you think about 40% of our signings last year being in the conversion category, that's logical.
spk07: And we have reached our allotted time for questions. I would now like to turn the call back over to Tony for any additional or closing remarks.
spk16: Well, as always, thank you again for your interest in Marriott. We are coming off a terrific year in 2023, tremendously enthusiastic about 24, what 24 holds, and we look forward to seeing all of you on the road. Safe travels.
spk07: For your participation, you may disconnect at any time.
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