Methanex Corporation

Good morning, my name is Regina and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Methanex Corporation 2022 Fourth Quarter Results Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speaker's remarks, there will be a question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question during this time, simply press star then the number one on your telephone keypad. If you would like to withdraw your question, press star one again. I would now like to turn the conference over to the Director of Investor Relations at Methanex, Ms. Sarah Harriot. Please go ahead.

Thank you. Good morning, everyone. Welcome to our fourth quarter 2022 results conference call. Our 2022 fourth quarter news release, management's discussion and analysis, and financial statements can be accessed from the reports tab of the investor relations page on our website at methanex.com. I would like to remind our listeners that our comments and answers to your questions today may contain forward-looking information. This information, by its nature, is subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause the stated outcome to differ materially from the actual outcome. Certain material factors or assumptions were applied in drawing the conclusions or making the forecasts or projections which are included in the forward-looking information. Please refer to our fourth quarter 2022 MD&A and our 2021 Annual Report for more information. I would also like to caution our listeners that any projections provided today regarding Methanex's future financial performance are effective as of today's date. It is our policy not to comment on or update this guidance between quarters. For clarification, any references to revenue, average realized price, EBITDA, adjusted EBITDA, cash flow, adjusted income, or adjusted earnings per share made in today's remarks reflects our 63.1% economic interest in the Atlas facility our 50% economic interest in the Egypt facility, and our 60% interest in waterfront shipping. In addition, we report adjusted EBITDA and adjusted net income to exclude the mark-to-mark impact on share-based compensation and the impact of certain items associated with specific identified events. These items are non-GAAP measures and ratios that do not have any standardized meaning prescribed by GAAP and therefore unlikely to be comparable to similar measures presented by other companies. We report these non-GAAP measures in this way because we believe they are a better measure of underlying operating performance, and we encourage analysts covering the company to report their estimates in this manner. I would now like to turn the call over to Methanex's President and CEO, Mr. Rich Sumner, for his comments and a question and answer period.

Thank you, Sarah, and welcome to all of you. We appreciate you joining us today as we discuss our fourth quarter and full year 2022 results. I'm excited to be leaving the company and to be having my first earnings call since becoming CEO of Methanex on January 1st. In December, we announced changes to the Executive Leadership Team, or ELT, with a few longstanding ELT members retiring. I want to thank them for their significant contributions to the company. The new members of the ELT all have extensive industry experience, and as a team, we all share a passion for safety and value creation. Now let's turn to a review of our fourth quarter and full year 2022 financial results. For the fourth quarter, our average realized price of $373 per ton generated adjusted EBITDA of $160 million and adjusted net income of 73 cents per share. Adjusted EBITDA was lower in the fourth quarter, primarily due to lower proceeds from the redirection and sale of natural gas in Egypt, partially offset by the benefit of a decline in gas and logistics costs. In 2022, we recorded annual adjusted EBITDA of $932 million and robust adjusted net income of $343 million or $4.79 per share. Combined, 2021 and 2022 are the highest adjusted EBITDA and operating cash flows in the company's history. I'm proud of the team for delivering another year of strong financial results and I'm very excited for the Geismar 3 plan coming online this year as it will further enhance our cash generation capability. We estimate that global methanol demand increased slightly in 2022 to 88 million tons. Methanol demand in the fourth quarter was down approximately 5% compared to the third quarter of 2022, primarily driven by lower MTO operating rates. MTO affordability was under pressure from low olefins prices, leading to lower operating rates and some plant outages. Demand from traditional chemical applications was also slightly lower due to lower consumer spending, year-end stocking in Europe and Asia, and continued lackluster demand in China due to COVID-19 restrictions. Demand from energy-related applications was relatively stable in the fourth quarter. Industry operating rates in the fourth quarter were similar to the third quarter, with lower operating rates in China and Iran due to the seasonal diversion of natural gas to meet meet power demand offset by stronger operating rates from the Atlantic region. High coal pricing in China continues to provide support to the methanol cost curve. We estimate the industry cost curve based on the marginal coal producer costs in China to be approximately $330-$350 per ton, with coal pricing continuing to remain well above 1,000 RMB per ton levels. Based on these industry supply and demand fundamentals, we are seeing relatively balanced markets in the Atlantic and tight markets across Asia and China, underpinned by high energy pricing globally. Our February posted prices remained stable in North America and increased in Asia and China. Less volatile spot prices in the fourth quarter, primarily in China, led to a lower discount rate of 20.5% compared to 21.5% in the third quarter. In 2022, we had an average discount rate of 21%, And in 2023, we had a similar discount rate. We continue to monitor the macroeconomic and energy price environments. We see potential demand upside from the reopening in China following the Lunar New Year, given the significant methanol demand in China, as well as Asian countries with strong economic ties to China. We continue to see a high global energy price environment, which enhances methanol's cost competitiveness against alternative fuels, supporting demand growth. Interest from the grain industry and orders for dual fuel vessels able to run on methanol continue to grow. Based on existing dual fuel ships and orders to date, demand potential grows from approximately 300,000 tons today to 3 million tons over the next few years. On the supply side, we did not anticipate any capacity additions outside of China in 2023 besides our Geismar 3 project, which is expected to start production in the fourth quarter. Turning to operations, our production levels were higher in the fourth quarter compared to the third quarter. As the Egypt plant restarted after an extended turnaround, we had higher gas availability in Chile and New Zealand and no plant turnarounds. We did experience unplanned outages in Geismar, Chile and Trinidad that impacted the fourth quarter production. In 2023, we have three plant turnarounds which will be undertaken sequentially and complete by September. Our forecasted production for 2023 is approximately 6.5 million equity tons, excluding production from G3, although actual production may vary by quarter based on timing of these turnarounds, gas availability, unplanned outages, and unanticipated events. We ended the fourth quarter in a strong financial position with approximately $806 million of cash, excluding non-controlling interest, and including our share of cash in the Atlas Joint Venture, and with $600 million of undrawn backup liquidity. Construction on our Advantage G3 project is progressing safely on time and on budget, with production expected in the fourth quarter of this year. The expected G3 capital spend remains unchanged at $1.25 to $1.3 billion, and we've spent approximately $910 million before capitalized interest to the end of the fourth quarter. The remaining $415 to $465 million of capital expenditures and including approximately $75 million in accounts payable is fully funded with cash on hand. We are looking forward to adding G3 to our asset portfolio as it will enhance our cash flow generation capability and lower the CO2 intensity of our portfolio. Looking ahead to the first quarter of 2023, we continue to see a strong methanol pricing environment, and we expect slightly higher production in the first quarter compared to the fourth quarter. I'd also mention that our sales of produced product were meaningfully lower than our production for the fourth quarter. As a result, we're expecting much higher sales of produced product and higher adjusted EBITDA in the first quarter of 2023 compared with the fourth quarter of 2022. In the medium term, the methanol market outlook is positive. and we have growing cash flow generation capability with G3 production expected in the fourth quarter of this year. At $375 per ton realized methanol price and $4 per MMPTU gas, we expect G3 to generate approximately $250 million of EBITDA per year. With our G3 project being fully funded with cash on hand and our ability to generate meaningful cash flows across a wide range of methanol prices, We are well positioned during this period of economic uncertainty to maintain a strong balance sheet, pursue economic value-added growth opportunities, and continue returning excess cash to shareholders.

We would now be happy to answer questions.

At this time, I would like to remind everyone, in order to ask a question, press star then the number one on your telephone keypad. Our first question comes from the line of Joel Jackson with BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Hi, good morning, Rich. Congrats on your first quarter, CEO. If I look at what's going on in the market, pricing is about similar in Q1 as Q4. Gas prices are lower. You're going to have a lot more sales. Would you not say that Q1 earnings should be significantly higher than Q4? Is there anything you can do to quantify a bit more?

I think you probably can put it together. I think the much higher on produce sales, you know, do that. If you kind of look at production and, and then think about our inventory balance, you can probably project what that means in terms of produce sales. And you're right, Joel, within this environment where, where, you know, margins are strong. And so we're, you know, we're expecting much higher earnings along with that.

And then again, You know, New Zealand production is starting to come back, but it seems like a slog here, and maybe some of the Chile production in 23 looks a bit like there's not growth there. I'm wondering if there's one of the turnarounds happening in Chile this year, and then more generally, like, I know we're in 23, but can you maybe talk about, as you get to 24, how might Chile and New Zealand volumes look better? Like, what's on the table considering all the things going on in those countries in Argentina? Sure.

Yeah. Maybe I'll... Let's start with New Zealand. In New Zealand, as I think you know, we've got gas contracts that go out to the end of the decade. We're a big gas consumer there, so we work closely with our gas suppliers on their drilling campaigns to support our contracts. Our 2023 forecast is based on what we see, a relatively tight market in 2023. We continue to be optimistic with their drilling campaigns as well as their well maintenance activities that are going to happen this year on the outlook for more incremental gas to the two plants at Montanui. Long term or medium to longer term, we think it's a favorable dynamics in New Zealand. The Taranaki Basin is a well-developed basin. The reserves are there. It's economic gas, and in the high energy price, there's associated gas that comes with that. We also think we're a big consumer in the region, and the other consumption is into power, and increasingly, I think New Zealand's recognizing the importance of gas for power generation. So, you know, we're cautiously optimistic there, and we're going to continue to work really closely with the gas suppliers. So that's kind of New Zealand. When we talk about Chile, we've got gas coming into Chile, coming from suppliers in Chile, that gas happening all year round. And then we also have gas coming from Argentina, which happens outside of the winter months there. We're forecasting similar gas supply as 2022 and in 2023. We continue to work with, in particular, with suppliers in both Chile and Argentina. Argentina, there's quite positive things happening within Argentina that we think can significantly change the balance there. One is that there's a lot of development happening in the Noycan Basin and in the Vaca Marta field. And there's pipeline connections being made, which likely would supply domestic markets there and reduce a need for imports of LNG. And also dependence on gas in the south where our plants are. And there's investments happening in the south. There's an investment by Total and Wintershell $700 million project where they're developing gas that's meant to come online in the next year and a half or so. So we're continuing discussions there and remain, again, optimistic of future gas, but things have to happen in Argentina for that to come forth.

And just finally, I'm going to be greedy here. Can you tell me a G3 Did commissioning start in January? As part of that question, how many months did it take from first commissioning to first production of both G1 and G2? And would a similar timeline make sense for G3?

Well, I guess it depends on your definition of commissioning. When we're commissioning a plant, what we're doing is as the different systems in the plant are complete, we're handing it over to the commissioning team. So as of right now, the power supply system is being commissioned and handed over to the team, and we'll continue to hand over different parts of the plant as they become available. So, you know, all that is built into our timelines when we say production in the fourth quarter, and that we think once we actually get to attempting to start up the plant, it's a matter of weeks, not months, because of all that pre-work done by the commissioning team.

Okay, thank you.

Your next question comes from the line of Ben Isaacson with Scotiabank. Please go ahead.

Thank you very much, and good morning, everyone. Rich, I'm just trying to figure out 2023 in terms of demand. There's a big story about China starting to reopen this year and the U.S. and the EU perhaps going into 2021. recession. And you mentioned that we had about 88 million tons of demand in 22. Can you talk about where incremental demand comes from in 23? Is it going higher? Is it going lower? And what about incremental production? So you said that outside of China, G3 is the only asset coming online. But what's happening in China? How much new production or change in production do you expect to see? Sure.

So the demand, thanks, Ben. The demand question is kind of maybe a large one. I'll try to tackle that one first. So we break down demand. We break it into both, I guess, segments as well as regions. Traditional chemical applications, that's 50% of demand. The MTO is 15 to 20, and then other energy applications is 30 to 35%. A significant portion of that demand overall is in China, so 60% of overall demand is in China and another 10 to 15% is in other Asian countries, so with a strong linkage to China. So when we look at it, we're looking at it both regionally and also by derivative, where you know, we see growing, we see all applications in China and Asia could be helped and supported with the reopening of China. We're looking at forecasts today that are predicting 4 to 5% or above growth rates in China on reopening. We're going to have to wait and see. We didn't see that demand ahead of the Chinese Lunar New Year, but we are seeing a lot of activity in that country coming out. So we're going to be cautiously optimistic there. on really all applications. For MTO, what we saw towards the end of last year is 15% decline in MTO demand. It was really on the back of two large-scale plants, one of which has already restarted, and we know one plant is down that consumes over 2 million tons We think the reason for that continuing to be down is they actually had a refinery expansion and they're commissioning their naphtha cracker ahead of their derivative downstream being commissioned. And we believe that MTO, they have plans to restart MTO once it's all commissioned. So we think that actually you know, is likely to happen. And we also think new Iranian supply after winter would be a logical place for a lot of that to supply into. So, you know, we look at the olefins market and say, yes, it's been under pressure, but we think MTO has been competitive to NAFTA and there's a likelihood we see more. We have to wait and see. So hopefully that answers... some of the questions on demand, and we can revisit that. Maybe I'll switch over to China capacity. When we look forward, we're seeing maybe about 1.5 to 2 million tons of new capacity in China this year. We also will net that off of most of that's coming from cocaine gas plants. We'll net that off of also the fact that there's a continued shutdown of smaller inefficient plants in China. So call it a million and a half tons, which is not that meaningful when you look at overall demand and overall demand growth. So maybe I'll stop there and see if you have any follow-up questions.

Yeah, no, that's perfect. And then just a quick one on the cost curve. I was very surprised that... through China's lockdown last year, we didn't really see that thermal coal price drop a lot. And so the marginal cost of methanol held in really well. And now in 2023, we're going to see China starting to reopen. What is the downside to that coal price, if any? I mean, it seems like the cost curve has a lot of support, either where it is or potentially higher. Do you have an idea what could derail the cost curve in 2023?

It's hard to see within a high energy price environment. China is importing a lot of energy, LNG and oil and coal production. They had a real difficult time increasing coal supply through the last year. We understand that that's partially on the back of labor and COVID restrictions and getting people to mine. So some of that could free up, but we also understand A lot of these mines have already been mined quite deep, and going any further causes safety concerns and other factors, and it's not easy to invest in a large-scale mine. It takes time to bring production on. So, you know, we kind of forecast out and think there's likely, you know, tight coal markets. It does seem like China might be trying to open up more imports. They talk about lifting the ban on Australian coal imports, but Imports into China represents between 5% and 10% of overall thermal coal demand, so it's hard to see that being a major swing in the coal pricing.

So hopefully that helps. That's great. Thanks so much.

Your next question comes from the line of Steve Hansen with Raymond James. Please go ahead.

Yeah, good morning, guys. Appreciate the time. Just a quick clarification question on the discount rate, Rich. I think you referenced the 23 rate as being similar to what we saw in the fourth quarter. I just wanted to clarify some of your opening remarks.

Yeah, that's correct, Steve. We're guiding to 21% for 2023.

Perfect. Thank you. Appreciate that. And then just to follow on Joel's question earlier around some of the production basins, I just wanted to clarify a bit more on New Zealand. I think the guidance relatively flattish on the year, but I was just curious because you did have a couple of large turnarounds or there was a turnaround in the period last year. And so is it a conservative guidance that we can't get an uplift this year or is it just the gas supply? I'm just trying to reconcile the two.

No, it's similar to last. The gas profile is similar to last year.

Okay. Okay, fair enough. And then just lastly around capital allocation, you got... a good cash position here to finish off G3? When should we start to think about the next stage of capital allocation in terms of comfortability on accelerating the buyback or pursuing the buyback more aggressively as the cash flow opportunity starts to creep here?

We're really happy with where we are today. Our balance sheets in really good position with about $800 million on the balance sheet with $465 million left to spend on G3, and we're maintaining our BINNO cash balances at $300, so we don't see a lot of excess today. We will be generating at today's methanol prices with our assets operating, generating strong cash flow. We're obviously going to be cautiously watching things. We're still moving through a period of economic uncertainty here um but we have options for excess cash so like you said we can we can accelerate the current current bid there's still around over 100 million dollars at today's share price like that number is getting bigger every day um and uh and then and then if we can we can upsize the bid as well uh which would mean tempers going to 10 of the public quote would be another around 100 million And then we've said that we want to repay rather than refinance our $300 million bond coming due in 2024. And we think we can do that in stages rather than all at once. So we have options. We're going to be looking at our options. And obviously, first priority is to keep a strong balance sheet and through this period to ensure G3 is completed.

Appreciate the time. Thanks.

Your next question comes from the line of Jacob Bow with CIBC. Please go ahead.

Good morning. Jacob. Yeah, I wanted to go back to that discussion on China and, you know, your thoughts on, you know, the low MTO affordability that we're dealing with right now. When does that improve? Because I thought part of the discussion there was just the overcapacity situation we're in for the Chinese ethylene market given, you know, the ramp in new capacity there?

Yeah. Yeah, so the olefins market's been under pressure for well over a year. That's on the back of both, like you said, the new capacity that's been coming on into the market as well as the economic demand for olefins. So, Kind of a double whammy there. That's impacted the affordability for both Asia and NAPTA producers as well as MTO. We think MTO has been competitive to NAPTA through that period, but it's been tough for all producers in that sector. When it gets back into balance, it's sort of hard to predict. We think that on the demand side, certainly the opening up of China could help support on the demand. but there is new capacity and a required rationalization of operating rates. We don't really think all the fence pricing is so low right now. It's low, low. It's hard to see it going further down from here, but we'll see what happens. So we think there is some positive signs with demand that could help balance things out, but still need rationalization in that industry. Okay.

And then my second question, just on the Trinidad gas contract, maybe just talk through where you are in the negotiations there for Titan and this contract for Atlas, will you be doing this at the same time? And then, you know, what are the structures of the gas contracts being considered?

Yes, so for Trinidad, we certainly want to be talking to the National Gas Company in Trinidad for both Titan and Atlas. The NGC is really in a number of different discussions right now. One is with the upstream, and so they're in discussions with the major players in the upstream there. They've also been working towards getting a standard ownership interest across all the LNG trains. And then they'll obviously start the discussions with the downstream. So positive progress on the front. We understand they've done one contract, upstream contract with BP. We also understand that they've reached agreement on the unitization of the LNG and that's said to be done in the first quarter and complete. I think that both those things are creating a better environment for now us getting into commercial discussions on the petrochemical side. So we will be having those discussions this year. Some other positive news is recently the Biden administration just granted a license to Trinidad to develop a field, the Dragon Field in Venezuela, which is a 4TCF field. That's positive because there's also an even larger field that borders, that's more than double the size that borders Trinidad and Venezuela, so it opens up the possibility for that to happen as well. You know, there's progress happening there. We'll have more to report throughout this year as progress takes place there.

Okay. Thank you.

Your next question comes from the line of Lawrence Alexander with Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Good morning. Could you give some detail on how you're seeing the evolution of the marine methanol demand and line of sight to demand growth over the next couple of years and what you're seeing in China for both DME and industrial boiler demand?

Sure. I'll start with the marine fuel. This is a really exciting area for us. We're seeing a lot of interest right now. As of today, there's both ships that are on the water as well as orders that are on the books. Today, it's over 100 vessels that if run on methanol, 100% of the time would be 3 million tons of demand. But we also know that all major shipping companies are looking at methanol, either committed to methanol or looking at methanol in the container space. So that's Costco, HMM, Maersk, CMA, CGM, and others, so really exciting there. But we're also seeing interest in all other sectors. Cruise lines, Disney just committed to their first cruise, large cruise vessel. Ferries, Stena is the first converted ferry vessel. And then we know tug, barge, dry bulk, et cetera. So, you know, we're really interested. We're supporting that area. We expect to see it grow, continue to grow. We're supporting it in a number of different ways, trying to really help with shipping companies to understand the technology of methanol, the logistics, the availability of methanol. We just did some demonstrations in the port of Gothenburg with Stena doing the first ship-to-ship bunkering in Sweden as well as for a ferry. So we're supporting this in a lot of different ways, and we're also trying to understand their interest in low-carbon methanol and how that fits with potentially our investments and our sites as well as future projects. So really interesting space. I'm sure we'll have a lot more to report on more vessels and more demand potential as that goes forward. Your other question is about coal boilers and kilns. We asked about DME. DME, we don't see demand growing there. That's sort of what I'll say is a sort of a mature application, not seeing investment in that space, but it's sort of steady demand. You know, about 4 million tons of demand per year and wouldn't put a lot of growth rates on that. Coal boilers and kilns, we see that conversions continue to happen. mainly in the smaller commercial applications for commercial heating and commercial and residential heating. So continuing to track that. We put a number on it. It's probably in the 4% to 5%. We're not seeing huge, huge growth rates there. The other area that we're watching is demand for vehicle fuels. Geely is promoting a number of different applications, M100 vehicles, heavy-duty trucks. as well as hybrid sedans. And so, they have some quite optimistic marketing plans for especially heavy-duty trucks. So, yeah, so those are the applications we're watching and continuing to track.

Okay, thank you. And can you also just speak to kind of your philosophy or view on what Methanexa strategy should be on green methanol? And also, what you see is the current kind of state of the market. As far as I've been able to keep track, I think there's about 1.5 million tons of projects already announced, but I'm not sure if we're catching everything. So just curious about what you see in terms of what's in the pipeline and how you want to participate in that.

Yes. I think if you break those projects down, you'd see those are a lot of announcements that haven't reached full commercial or project approval. So I think the pace of those projects is something that we're watching. As it relates to Methanex, we're looking at a number of different areas when it relates to low carbon. The first and easiest thing for us to do is renewable natural gas. So we're certified in North America in our Geismar plants and we're active in the renewable natural gas market where we buy renewable gas at a premium and create green methanol in support of downstream customers. When it comes to investments, we're looking at the feasibility of carbon capture in the US, and that's on the back of benefits and tax incentives under the Inflation Reduction Act, as well as sequestration availability in Louisiana. So we're looking at the feasibility of that, and we're also looking at the feasibility of e-methanol, a small e-methanol investment at our New Zealand site. We think that that is something we could apply to multiple sites. You know, these are very early, really in the feasibility stage, understanding technology, understanding capital. And, you know, these things will take government support as well as customer demand and willingness to pay. So I think our strategy is to try to make sure we're positioning the company the right way as those things advance and the conditions for investment improve.

Thanks. And just to clarify on the biogas route, are you making the same profit per gallon using the biogas as you are on regular gas?

So I guess the answer is yes, and I guess the answer would also depend on each agreement we would get in. And as of right now, we're still in discussions on that.

Perfect. Thanks.

Your next question comes from the line of Bernard Horn with Polaris Capital. Please go ahead.

Yes, good morning. I just have another question on the MTO market in China. You know, you mentioned that there was a new NAPTA cracker coming up. I just wondered if the competitive dynamics might change with a kind of shiny new naphtha cracker. Will it become more cost competitive in some way that could in any way, you know, affect the demand for methanol in that market? And secondly, you know, there's a considerable amount of new capacity coming up. I think BASF is putting up a huge plant there. I'm not sure if they would have any offtake on that. I mean any supply of methanol that might change the competitive dynamics of methanol in that market.

Yes. So let me clarify what I was talking about with that MTO unit. So the MTO site I'm talking about is – the MTO unit is on the same site as the refinery expansion. Today the MTO unit is feeding into derivative downstream. um they've started they've now built out a new refinery project on the same site right next door with both a naphtha cracker as well as new derivative downstream so once the all the site is fully commissioned they actually need both in terms of feed when we look at economics mto today looks more competitive than naphtha And if you also include the fact that MTO is buying a considerable amount of product from Iran at discounted prices to international prices, it makes it even more attractive. So we would expect to see that that plant starts up. So it's really a very site-specific issue, but it obviously has big demand impact given this MTO unit consumes over 2 million tons per year.

Okay, yeah, thanks. That is very helpful, Eddie. I was a little confused as to what you were saying about that. Yes. All right, thanks. And anything on the BASF plant and other big chemical expansions there, whether they might in some ways produce a byproduct of methanol in any way that would affect the competitive market for methanol in China?

Not familiar with that, but certainly, I mean, what we're seeing is not the expansions We consider that in the mix of all the capacity that's being added, I'm sure, but nothing specific to mention around that.

Thanks very much. Have a good day.

As a reminder, to ask a question, simply press star 1 on your telephone keypad. Your next question comes from the line of Joshua Spector with UBS. Please go ahead.

Hey, guys. This is James Cannon. I'm for Josh. Just looking at kind of where gas costs have come down to at this point in 2023, you're starting to hear some comments on potential reopening, or not reopening, but improvement in Europe as things become more affordable and potentially seeing some rebuild in feedstock inventories of the downstream production. Can you comment on what you're seeing in that market versus what we were seeing through destocking in 4Q?

So yeah, so I guess when we talked about our fourth quarter, our fourth quarter, we saw traditional chemical applications decline about 3%. And a lot of that was driven by both Europe and Asia. Right now, certainly, we think that the decrease in natural gas prices has supported producers and manufacturing base in Europe. As of right now, we would say that it's likely got a little upside from where we were towards the end of the year, but we've got to wait and see. I think our customer base is a little more optimistic than what they were three months ago, but still got to wait and see how operating rates are impacted. But I would say modest improvement in outlook there.

Okay, thank you.

And then just as a follow-up to that, With gas now below 250 in the US, do you have any update to your kind of views on your hedging strategy with 2023 at 85% and how we should think about looking out to 2024 and beyond?

Sure. So when we – I think you quoted, yeah, we have 85% hedged. When we look at our North America natural gas exposure, we consider both Medicine Hat and Geismar in our mix of North American gas. We have a team that looks at how we want to manage that on an active basis. Our target is to have around 70% per year hedged for our assets there. We do that in two ways. One is through longer term contracts fixed price physical contracts with suppliers, and then the second is through commodity hedging in the financial markets. We're hedged 85% for 2023, and then we're close to our 70% levels for both 2024 and 2025 after considering G3 at full production rates. So we feel really good where we are in the kind of medium term. We're going to continue to be active in the market. Obviously, today's spot price is supporting our unhedged exposure, and that's quite a benefit from where we were last year when we saw that pricing up in the $8, $9 in MMBTU. So we think that's a positive for our cost structure in 2023.

Okay, great. Thank you.

There are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call back over to Mr. Rich Sumner.

Thank you for your questions and interest in our company. Looking forward, we are well positioned with our current asset portfolio and a strong balance sheet. Our G3 project is fully funded, progressing safely, on time and on budget, and we expect to be in production in the fourth quarter of this year. We hope you will join us in April when we update you on our first quarter results. Thank you.

Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today's conference. Thank you all for joining. You may now disconnect.