11/8/2022

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Good day and welcome to the Romaco Resource Incorporated third quarter 2022 results conference call. All participants will be in a listen-only mode. Should you need assistance, please signal a conference specialist by pressing the star key followed by zero. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. To ask a question, you may press star then one on your touchtone phone. And to withdraw your question, please press star then two. Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. Jeremy Sussman. Please go ahead, sir.

speaker
Jeremy Sussman
Chief Financial Officer

Thank you. On behalf of Ramico Resources, I'd like to welcome all of you to our third quarter 2022 earnings conference call. With me this morning is Randy Atkins, our chairman and CEO, Chris Blanchard, our chief operating officer, and Jason Fanning, our chief commercial officer. Before we start, I'd like to share our normal cautionary statements. Certain items discussed on today's call constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements represent Ramico's expectations concerning future events. These statements are subject to risks, uncertainties, and other factors, many of which are outside of Ramico's control, which could cause actual results to differ materially from the results discussed in the forward-looking statements. Any forward-looking statement speaks only as of the date on which it is made, And except as required by law, Ramico does not undertake any obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise. I'd like to remind you that you can find a reconciliation of the non-GAAP financial measures that we plan to discuss today in our press release. Lastly, I'd encourage everyone on this call to go onto our website, ramicoresources.com, and download today's investor presentation under the events calendar. With that said, let me introduce our Chairman and CEO, Randy Atkins.

speaker
Randy Atkins
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Thanks, Jeremy, and good morning to all. Q3 was another record quarter for us. In fact, the first three quarters of 22, we generated almost as much adjusted EBITDA as we did in the previous five years combined. With that said, our Q3 results came in below what we hoped. Headwinds were due to the Berwyn Ignition event in July, 45% decline in seaboard coal pricing in the past two quarters, and continued logistical rail and trucking challenges in shipping our coal. With that said, we are positioned for both a record fourth quarter and full year 2022. Here is a quick look at some of our accomplishments over the past quarter. We recently completed the rehab of our Berwyn preparation plant. This will immediately lower our cash costs moving forward as we no longer need to truck coal over 25 miles to our Knox Creek plant. On the sales front, we are now fully sold out for 22 at an average price of $211 per ton. We have also successfully placed a good portion of our anticipated fourth quarter coal in the European thermal markets. For 2022-23, We have placed roughly 1.8 million tons, or about 45% of expected production, for sale at an average price of $210 per ton. Next year, we project that over 60% of production will sell into export markets, much of that at index-based pricing. Lastly, in September, we closed on the Maven acquisitions. We are beginning to bring that mind online and anticipate it being a meaningful earnings contributor in 2023. As we look down the road, 2023 indeed looks to be more of a transformational year for us than even 2022. Among other reasons, we anticipate doubling production next year to roughly 4 million tons as compared to 2021 levels. That should also reflect itself in a commensurate increase in our cash generation. We previously guided that we would tailor our 2023 sales strategy to whatever markets would yield the best net back pricing. We have done that. We committed a meaningfully lower amount of coal to traditional domestic steel mills in 2023 and a meaningful portion into Europe at fixed prices well above our domestic business. On the back of these milestones, we would like to provide an initial framework on our planned 2023 shareholder return program. To understand our progression, I would remind everyone that Q1-22 was the first time we even paid a dividend on our stock, which we doubled before the first payment had been made. It remains our intention to each year progressively increase dividends on all our stock. This summer, we announced the second leg of shareholder return by filing to register a Class B tracking stock. This stock is now in SEC registration, and once it is effective, we will be able to communicate more about this security. Today, we are articulating a framework for the third leg of the stool, which is our future share buyback program, which we will address next month at our board meeting. We're expecting to generate increasing amounts of free cash flow next year as our production ramps. Accordingly, in 23, we hope to commit a return of free cash flow toward share buybacks in addition to our regular cash dividends. We will continue to grow organic production from internal funds, pay off the relatively limited debt we have, and pivot to execute on new production from the reserve acquisitions we have made over the past year. We now have a sufficient number of in-house reserve projects that we can internally grow without looking to new M&A opportunities. We anticipate sufficient cash flow later in 23 that will allow us to meet all our CapEx requirements for both normal maintenance and planned production CapEx, as well as for full debt repayment. We also want to maintain a cash cushion of roughly $100 million And beyond that, we anticipate allocating capital return to share repurchases after payment for regular cash dividends. Specifically, we will propose taking the sum of the cash dividends paid on our shares and invest a radical amount towards share repurchases. This would, of course, be subject to meeting our performance objectives and to approval by our board. At today's stock price, We regard buybacks of our stock as an attractive financial proposition. Importantly, as we return shareholder capital, we want to strike a strategic balance with long-term plans for low-cost organic production growth. Our goal is to increase Ramico's production substantially over what it is now. We feel there will be a continuing profitable future demand for high-quality medical for many years. yet we see a constrained growth in supply. Our production growth as a relative new company will generate increasing amounts of cash flow available for capital return. While Jason is going to talk in more detail, I want to give some brief color as to what we are seeing in the markets today. The ongoing events in Ukraine created an unusual dynamic where historic pricing between thermal and met coal inverted late this summer. Over the past few months, this relationship has since largely moderated, with met coal prices moving higher and API2 European thermal prices lower. We recently spent time in London with several of our European customers and investors. Our main takeaway is that in terms of having to replace Russian coal, European utilities are covered through year-end, but 2023 is a different story. Many customers have focused on securing near-term tons and have large open positions for next year. Even with a drop in gas prices, given global supply constraints, we struggle to see where the replacement tons will come from. We anticipate an upward move in European thermal coal pricing, perhaps in early 2023. And I would also like to point out that pricing for our main MET product, U.S. Hyval-A, has remained resilient with current net back pricing around $225 per ton. In closing, we remain on track to have a record year in 22. This is despite a host of challenges so far, such as labor tightness, inflationary pressures, logistical rail and trucking constraints, and the Berwyn ignition event. We anticipate 2023 to be meaningfully more profitable than 22, with greater production and cash generation. And we also look forward to returning increasing amounts of cash to our shareholders. Now, with that, I would like to turn the floor over to the rest of the team to discuss more detail on finances, operations, and the market. So, Jeremy, please run down our financial metrics.

Disclaimer

This conference call transcript was computer generated and almost certianly contains errors. This transcript is provided for information purposes only.EarningsCall, LLC makes no representation about the accuracy of the aforementioned transcript, and you are cautioned not to place undue reliance on the information provided by the transcript.

-

-