Ramaco Resources, Inc.

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the Ramico Resource Incorporated fourth quarter 2022 earnings conference call. All participants will be in a listen-only mode. Should you need assistance, please signal a conference specialist by pressing the star key followed by zero. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. To ask a question, you may press star and then one on a touch-tone telephone. To withdraw your questions, you may press star and two. At this time, I'd like to turn the floor over to Jeremy Sussman, Chief Financial Officer. Sir, please go ahead.

Thank you. On behalf of Ramico Resources, I'd like to welcome all of you to our fourth quarter 2022 earnings conference call. With me this morning is Randy Atkins, our Chairman and CEO, Chris Blanchard, our Chief Operating Officer, and Jason Fanning, our Chief Commercial Officer. Before we start, I'd like to share our normal cautionary statement. Certain items discussed on today's call constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements represent Ramico's expectations concerning future events. These statements are subject to risks, uncertainties, and other factors, many of which are outside of Ramico's control, which could cause actual results to differ materially from the results discussed in the forward-looking statements. Any forward-looking statement speaks only as of the date on which it is made and, except as required by law, Ramico does not undertake any obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise. I'd also like to remind you that you can find a reconciliation of the non-GAAP financial measures that we plan to discuss today in our press release, which can be viewed on our website, ramicoresources.com. Lastly, I'd encourage everyone on this call to go onto our website and download today's investor presentation under the events calendar. With that said, let me introduce our chairman and CEO, Randy Atkins. Thanks, Jeremy. Good morning to everyone, and thanks for joining the call. The fourth quarter was another challenging quarter. Indeed, last year was one of the most volatile market environments the company has faced. We experienced two impactful operational setbacks. One was sudden. That was the ignition of Berwyn that closed the mine and cost us 20% of our 22 production. The other was more long-lasting. That was the continued logistical and rail performance issues we encountered throughout the year. Despite those headwinds, 22 was easily our best year financially. We generated more than $200 million in adjusted EBITDA, It was almost three times higher than 21. This was also more than we did cumulatively over the past five years as a public company. I can think of no other public coal group that has achieved that level of growth in that short a period and also starting from scratch. Looking ahead for 23, our goal is quite simple. We want to get back on track and execute. This year, we hope to print some meaningful increases not only in production, but also in overall processing and sales capacity. We will continue to focus on cost reduction. And despite a great deal of macro uncertainty, this year has already started with encouraging signs in sales and pricing. Since we went public, we always spoke about a primary goal of returning capital back to our shareholders. We took the first steps there in 22 with our first regular-based dividend. We promptly doubled that payout amount and recently increased it again last December by a further 10 percent. We expect to discuss dividends again as the year progresses. We also have our tracking stock now in registration, which we will discuss once that is permitted. But overall, we have tried to design our capital return policies to appeal to long-term investors. Simply put, as we grow, we intend to have regular steady increases in the amount of cash headed back to shareholders. I'm also extremely pleased that despite a volatile macro environment, our marketing team has booked significant new metallurgic sales since our last update in late 22. We previously guided we would tailor our sales strategy to those markets that would yield the best netbacks. and with a bias to retaining price optionality. We have now done that. Just over 20% of sales this year are committed to traditional domestic steel mills at fixed prices. At the high end of guidance, we have two-thirds of sales priced for export and mainly at floating index pricing. Our view is that in this cycle, index prices will achieve higher margins than traditional fixed prices. Adding more optionality, we still have almost 1 million uncommitted tons left to place. This represents about 30% of our total sales guidance, again, at the high end of the range. Again, these tons are expected to be sold for export and at index. Summing up our 23 book, we have already placed 1.6 million tons at fixed prices over $200 a ton. This nets back to triple-digit margins based on the midpoint of our cost guidance. At the same time, as I said, approximately 2 million tons, or two-thirds of total sales, will be priced at mostly index-based export business. On financial performance, while 22 was a record year, we encountered headwinds. First, of course, was the unfortunate ignition at our Berwyn No. 1 mine in July. And the West Virginia state regulators have recently confirmed that it was probably caused by a lightning strike near a surface mine portal. Fortunately, that mine restarted last week. We expect by the third quarter, Berwyn will hit full production from the first section. We also anticipate Berwyn complex become the second largest mine complex at over 1.5 million tons once we reach full production. Another issue was that last summer we sold some tons into the niche crossover business of selling U.S. met coal to European utilities. This was for thermal use, but at that time priced much higher than met realizations. When we concluded a floating deal against the API 2 index in July, the pricing was around $400 a ton. Unfortunately, the API 2 dropped by roughly two-thirds during the contract term, and we took a large hit on that sale. We also estimate that the litany of rail and logistic issues negatively impacted adjusted EBITDA by an average of 14 million each quarter. It was almost like Murphy's Law. We always seem to get rail delays just at a quarter's end. We are now hopeful that in 23, logistics will return to a more normalized cadence based on what we are hearing from our railroad partners. Looking forward, Based on simple fundamentals, 23 is poised to be a very positive year. Starting in the second quarter and building throughout the year, we have several near-term developments which will begin to impact earnings. First is the 1 million ton expansion in processing and shipping capacity at the Elk Creek Complex, which is matched with an increase in production to 3 million tons. Another is the reopening of the Berwyn No. 1 mine. Lastly, in the second quarter, we also expect to begin initial production at our new Maven mine. This will be a 250,000 ton per year low ball mine, mined at very attractive coal. In 23, at the high end of guidance, we now anticipate a 825,000 ton increase in production over 22. We also expect a 1 million ton increase in sales, enhanced By the roughly 150,000 tons of carryover coal, we did not ship by year end because of rail logistics. By the third quarter, we anticipate producing, shipping, and selling north of a 4 million ton per annum run rate. This, of course, sets us up for some solid growth in 2024. In addition, this year, we hope to decrease cash mine costs by 5% or about $1 to $2 per quarter. as well as have a significant 50 million or 43 percent decrease in capital expenditures versus 22. Over the past 18 months, we've made three accretive reserve royalty and infrastructure acquisitions. At this point, we do not contemplate further acquisitions to reach our optimal level of 6.5 million tons of production over the coming years. By fundamentals alone, From adding the additional production, processing, and sales capacity that we expect, we are confident that 23 will be another record year on both net income and adjusted EBITDA. We anticipate sufficient internal cash generation to meet all capital requirements for our production growth, as well as for repayment of all term and acquisition debt by later this year. As I said, we also expect to revisit our dividend levels as the year moves forward. In closing, our goal for 23 again is simply to execute. We have two main objectives, production growth and a steady increase in capital return to our shareholders. With that, I would like to turn the floor over to the rest of the team to discuss more detail on finances, operations, and markets. So, Jeremy, please start with a rundown on our financial metrics. Thank you, Randy. I'll start by going over our fourth quarter 2022 financial highlights. Adjusted EBITDA of $32 million was up 1% year over year. Quarterly net income of $14 million was down from $19 million in the same period of 2021. Adjusted EBITDA was negatively impacted by $4.4 million due to idle costs at our Berwyn line post the July ignition. Net income was negatively affected by $4 million. On a full year basis, 2022 adjusted EBITDA was $205 million compared to our previous record adjusted EBITDA of $79 million in 2021. Adjusted EBITDA was negatively affected by roughly $9.5 million of Burwind EIDL costs. On a full year basis, net income was $116 million and diluted earnings per share were $2.60. These were both up by roughly 190% year-on-year. Our fourth quarter results were negatively affected by extreme cold temperatures compared to expectations set in early December 2022, which caused almost 150,000 tons of shipments to be pushed into January of 2023 due to logistical challenges. We also saw a monthly 50% drop in API2 index pricing, which impacted margins on a large seaborne sale to Europe. Turning to our full year 2023 outlook, I would like to touch on a few of the key areas in our guidance tables. First, we anticipate production of 3 to 3.5 million tons, with sales roughly 200,000 tons above production due to the impact of carryover tonnage. At the high end of sales guidance, we anticipate more than a 50% increase in year-over-year sales. Second, we anticipate cast costs per ton of 97 to 103, which is a roughly 5% decrease from 2022 cash costs. Third, we anticipate CapEx of $60 to $80 million, down from $123 million in 2022. I would note that all of these annual figures are unchanged from the guidance we gave in December. One thing I want to point out is that given the ramp of production and sales expected in 2023, we are giving more granular quarterly guidance than normal. Specifically, we expect Q1 production of 625,000 to 700,000 tons and sales of 625,000 to 675,000 tons with realized pricing of $180 to $185 per ton and cash costs of $103 to $109 per ton. Q1 realized pricing guidance as a whole is negatively impacted by roughly $7 a ton due to the final January API 2 index linked cargo. Clearly, we anticipate Q1 to be the lowest quarter of the year in terms of adjusted EBITDA and net income. Our production and sales should increase meaningfully throughout the year on the back of Elk Creek's plant capacity increasing by 50% in the second quarter, as well as on the back of the return of the Berwyn mine, which occurred last week. We will also initiate production on the Maven mine in the second quarter. We would expect cash costs to decline as production and sales increase due to economies of scale. Now, turning to our longer-term growth outlook, we are maintaining our medium-term target of 6.5 million tons of production. I would like to point you to slides six and seven in our presentation. As a reminder, we believe we can get to 6.5 million tons of production at a very favorable CapEx intensity. Specifically, for a total of $121 million of growth capital split between 2023, 24, and 25, we anticipate completing the full build-out to 6.5 million tons of annual production. This is almost triple 2021 production of 2.2 million tons. At these levels, we would envision Elk Creek growing to almost 3.5 million tons from 2 million tons last year, the Berwyn Complex as a whole growing to almost 2 million tons from 400,000 tons last year, and the Knox Creek Complex growing to more than a million tons from 200,000 tons last year. I would remind everyone that 2022 was peak CapEx for us with over $90 million of growth capital. we anticipate growth capital of less than $30 million this year with overall CapEx down by more than $50 million. Importantly, as Randy detailed, in addition to our industry-leading production growth profile, we continue to anticipate returning increasing amounts of cash to shareholders while also paying down the majority of our remaining debt this year in order to maintain our strong balance sheet. In short, we view Ramico as both a growth story in a capital return story, which we believe positions us uniquely among our peers. I would now like to turn the call over to our Chief Operating Officer, Chris Blanchard.

Thanks, Jeremy. As Randy indicated in his remarks, we have had a number of transformational changes in the operations portfolio that have been completed recently or are imminent. Most importantly is the restart of the Berwyn mine in just the past several days. The recovery of the mine was completed safely without any accidents to any employees or contractors. We want to thank MSHA and the state of West Virginia for their professionalism and working with us to recover the mine and complete our joint investigations. We also thank and recognize the efforts of the mine rescue personnel and our own miners who work tirelessly through challenging conditions. All of the mine infrastructure has been repaired and all section mining equipment is active and in production. During our extended outage, we took several additional steps to upgrade and add redundancies to our ventilation system. As a reminder, the accident occurred during scheduled routine maintenance while the mine was idle. Although the mine has just returned to production, we are encouraged by the productivity levels reached in just the first few days. We have modeled a conservative ramp up of production at the mine, but expect to be back at fully rateable levels by the third quarter of 2023. Staying at the Berlin complex, during the fourth quarter of 22, we completed the upgrade and the modernization of the Berlin preparation plan. We commissioned the plant in November and saw overall immediate cost per ton reduction from the logistics savings. As the Berwyn mine itself's production ramps, these cost savings will become substantial. Given the scarcity of on-road coal trucks, eliminating the haul to our Knox Creek preparation plant also eliminates another logistics problem. Turning to Elk Creek, the 50% capacity upgrade of our preparation plant by up to one million clean tons per year is reaching the final stretch. We will complete the upgrade in the second quarter and should see an immediate improvement in processing throughput. The expansion of production at our mines at Elk Creek, which we put in place during the second half of 22, have all completed their ramp up periods and are all now operating at full capacity. No additional growth capital or hiring will be required at these mines in 2023 to serve the larger preparation plant. Importantly, we are seeing the financial impact of the full productivity of these mines. All of the 2022 advanced hiring and training of our coal miners is now bearing fruit in higher productivity and lower costs. We also continue to work closely with the CSX Railroad and are confident that their systems are prepared for our additional trains and shipments from Elk Creek, which will start during the second half of the second quarter this year. Finally, we will bring the Maven property, acquired last year, into production early in the second quarter this year. Our initial surface and highwall minor production is planned for processing and shipment from the Berlin plant. We are excited about the long-term potential on the Maven property and the high quality of the coals in this reserve. We continue to execute on our multi-year growth trajectory and our expanding portfolio of mining complexes to ultimately in excess of 6 million tons, with today's historically robust pricing supporting us. For a deeper discussion of the coal markets, I'd like to turn the call over to our Chief Commercial Officer, Jason Fannin. Jason. Thanks, Chris, and good morning, everyone. I will share what we are seeing in the markets in our current and forward sales outlook. As we begin 2023, global steel demand and pricing have rebounded. Hot roll pricing is up to $1,100 per ton in the US. Lead times have extended to eight weeks, which is the highest level since Q3 of 2021. Blast furnace capacity has started to return, which was idle during the second half of 22 in the US, Europe, and parts of Asia. China has ended its zero COVID policy and is instituting growth initiatives pushing its manufacturing PMI to a 10-year high last week, and also in its two-year de facto ban on Australian coals, all positives for coking coal markets. At the same time, the supply response remains muted due to years-long underinvestment in the coal space. Indeed, supplied side tightness remains the dominant driver of elevated pricing for the foreseeable future. Since the start of the year, we have seen coking coal prices improve 25%. Forward curves point to continued strong pricing for metallurgical coal through 2023 and 2024. Exports from the U.S. saw negligible growth during 2022. Output is still below pre-pandemic levels. In a year already fraught with rail challenges, extreme temperatures in the U.S. in December of 2022 caused even further logistical delays. Our railroad partners faced many of the same challenges we did during 2022, particularly on the labor front. We applaud their hiring efforts and service improvement initiatives and continue to see improving performance. Looking ahead to 2023, as Randy said, we have focused on attaining indexed price export metco business to take advantage of what we feel will be a strengthening market as the year progresses. Roughly two-thirds of our forecasted sales will be sold into the export market. We currently have committed sales of 2.6 million tons. of which 1.6 million tons are booked at a fixed price just over $200 per net ton at the mine, with the remaining 1 million tons priced against metallurgical indices. This leaves us with about 1 million tons of unpriced export volume remaining to sell at the upper end of our forecasted sales volume. We have also executed on our plan to grow our position with domestic specialty and niche coal consumers, and this attractive market now represents over 10% of our forecasted sales. Just over 20% of our forecasted sales volume is placed with traditional Coke makers in North America. Additionally, we have recently performed our first trial shipment into India with excellent results and strong net bank pricing, and are in discussions with other Pacific market consumers for additional near-term test cargos. In line with that, we are now seeing increasing interest from customers in Japan and other Pacific destinations. As Ramico continues to expand production, We view the Pacific market as a long-term strategic consumer, especially considering our growing portfolio of low ash, low sulfur, metallurgical coal, which spans the full spectrum of quality, low, medium, and high volatile coking coals. Overall, we like the current market conditions as they apply to Ramico. We continue to see a protracted imbalance of coking coal supply and demand, which is supportive of a prolonged period of elevated coking coal pricing levels. We also see a Pacific market lacking certainty of supply as their demand continues to grow, providing opportunities for expansion of U.S. market share. With that said, I would now like to return the call to the operator for the Q&A portion of the call. Operator?