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spk04: Greetings, and welcome to Maravai Life Sciences' third quarter 2022 earnings conference call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. If anyone should require operator assistance during a conference, please press star zero on your telephone keypad. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Deborah Hart, Head of Investor Relations. Thank you. You may begin.
spk05: Thanks, Doug. Good afternoon, everyone, and thanks for joining us for our third quarter 2022 earnings call. I'm joined by Carl Hull, our Executive Chairman and Interim CEO, and Kevin Hardy, our Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Our press release and the slides that accompany today's call are posted on our website and are available at investors.maravai.com under Financial Information, Quarterly Results. As you can see on slide two, Carl will first provide you with a business update, and then Kevin will review our financial results and guidance. We will open the call for questions following the prepared remarks. On slide three, we remind you that the forward-looking statements that we make during this call, including those regarding our business goals and expectations for the financial performance of the company, are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual events or results to differ. Additional information concerning these risk factors is included in the press release we issued today, as well as those that are more fully described in our various filings with the SEC. Today's comments reflect our current views, which could change as a result of new information, future events, or other factors, and the company does not obligate or commit itself to update these forward-looking statements, except as required by law. During this call, We will also be using non-GAAP measurements of certain of our results and in providing guidance. Reconciliations of GAAP to non-GAAP financial measures are included in our press release. The metrics we will be discussing in today's call include net income, adjusted EBITDA, income tax expense, and adjusted earnings per share. These adjusted financial measures should not be viewed as an alternative to GAAP measures but are intended to better enable investors to benchmark our current results against historical performance and to the performance of our peers. Now I'll turn the call over to Carl.
spk09: Well, thank you, Deb, and good afternoon, everyone. We appreciate having you join us for our call today. Let me now give you a quick recap of the quarter and provide a few business updates before turning the call over to Kevin. Starting on slide five, Today, we reported $191 million in total revenue, $133 million in total adjusted EBITDA, and 37 cents in adjusted fully diluted EPS for the quarter. These results were within the ranges of our expectations. Furthermore, we are confirming our overall expectations for the full year of 2022 and tightening up our previously communicated ranges as we move to close out the year. Kevin will go into more detail on the results and guidance later in this call. In the nucleic acid production or NAP business, we saw a revenue decline in COVID-related clean cap revenue in the quarter of 4% versus Q3 of 2021. In the base NAP business, revenue was down 6% year over year against a strong third quarter 2021 comparison in which we had a large non-COVID order from a customer entering a clinical trial. Our biologic safety testing business continues to see intermittent headwinds from the business in China and was down 1% from quarter three last year. Our adjusted free cash flow in the quarter was $119 million. The strong cash flow generation leaves us with an all-time record cash balance of $617 million as of the end of quarter three, up $67 million from quarter two. This puts us in a great position to fund our long-term strategy via organic investments in our own capabilities while we continue to actively pursue external M&A. We see multiple potential strategic opportunities in our space where we are working to deploy some of this cash. On slide six, you'll see our results on a nine-month basis. Revenue for the first three quarters of the year was $678 million, up 19% compared to the prior year, similar period. Excluding COVID clean cap revenue, our base nucleic acid production business was up 21% and our biologic safety testing business was up 4%. Our top line growth resulted in adjusted EBITDA of $508 million for the nine month period, which represents a 75% adjusted EBITDA margin. As we enter the final quarter of the year, we feel extremely well positioned to build on our strong commercial foundation, expand our existing customer relationships, and amplify our product and services offerings to support our customers. On that theme, let's turn to slide seven. During the quarter, we announced the first commercially available GMP-grade N1 methyl pseudouridine 5' triphosphate, a critical raw material for mRNA manufacturing. This new product extension leverages our existing quality systems and GMP capabilities, including clean room manufacturing, expanded analytical testing, and process verification. The demand for messenger RNA, modified with N1 methyl pseudouridine, as we call it, has risen significantly in the past several years due to its incorporation in both currently approved mRNA vaccines against COVID-19. N1 methyl pseudou is a key raw material for the majority of mRNA therapeutics in development today. In fact, it is our most requested modified NTP in mRNA manufacturing. Our GMP-grade N1-methyl Pseudou allows us to address our customers' needs to domestically source critical materials, and we are pleased to add this GMP-grade molecule to our existing offering of chemical capping reagents and other mRNA components. We see this as the first of many GMP-grade reagents to come from our new product development pipeline. This product is now available as both a GMP raw material and can also be incorporated into GMP mRNA manufacturing campaigns. These types of new products should continue to bring value to our customers and help improve the quality of manufactured mRNA for years to come. We remain focused on our base nucleic acid production business as the key driver of long-term value creation, as we continue to expect innovative mRNA customer growth in both products and services. To illustrate the traction we see from both a product and services standpoint, let me share some evidence of ongoing customer adoption on slide eight. Demand for CleanCap mRNA continues to accelerate in all areas. CleanCap reagents themselves, GMP manufacturing services, and custom mRNA constructs. One year ago, in the third quarter of 2021, we had 170 CleanCap reagent customers on a rolling 18-month basis. As we close the third quarter of this year, that number is now 273 customers, up 61%. These are customers that order CleanCap as a standalone reagent. We ship it to them or their preferred contract manufacturer, and they use our capping analogs in their own mRNA manufacturing process. This could be for research and discovery activities, preclinical development, and with our GMP offering, clinical manufacturing of mRNA. We also track our clean cap mRNA discovery customers. These are customers at the very earliest stages of their programs who look to TriLink to manufacture mRNA on their behalf using clean cap as their capping method. Their activities are mostly for early research and discovery, including assay development, target identification, and in vitro cell models. This group of customers has grown from 464 last year to over 600 customers today. That's up 29%. And among these early customers, as they continue through their discovery work, we expect many will mature into the mRNA GMP services business where they would take several of their top candidates and upgrade them to our GMP manufacturing processes, which includes process development to larger-scale manufacturing, phase-appropriate methods development and validation, and collecting documentation that would support an IND filing. These GMP messenger RNA customers have grown from 53 to 68 over the last year, up 28%. As these customers progress through our GMP services with their preclinical and early clinical phase work, we also want to support them through phase two and beyond, which is why we were building the new Flanders facility. Now let's turn to slide nine for an update on those facility expansion plans. As we announced in the second quarter, we signed a collaborative agreement with the Department of Defense where they will fund up to $39 million of our planned expansion of the Flanders nucleic acid production facility here in San Diego. This is part of the government's goal of nationwide pandemic readiness for COVID-19 and beyond. We successfully passed the BARDA audit and have commenced billing for reimbursement under our grant for the Flanders construction. We expect to receive our first reimbursement check later this month. The Flanders site construction is progressing, and we expect to have partial occupancy for Phase 1 of the project in early first quarter 2023, and Phase 2 occupancy later in the first half of 2023. As a reminder, the first phase will provide us with an additional GMP manufacturing suite with two clean rooms. By moving some of our operations to the new Flanders site from Water Ridge, we will be able to expand the rest of our small molecule platform and add GMP API manufacturing capacity. This will allow us to support our customers through phase two and beyond. Likewise, the biologic safety testing relocation to a new facility in Leland, North Carolina is progressing nicely towards a move-in date over the holiday break at the end of this year. This new facility more than doubles our operational square footage to support current and future growth. The fully customized design will provide room for a mass spectrometry center of excellence and specialized cell culture facilities. It will significantly increase our cold storage capacity while providing other R&D, laboratory, and automation upgrades. Extensive process flow analysis has been incorporated in the design to optimize and enhance both our manufacturing and kit packaging operations. Our Pacific Center expansion, which will provide additional warehouse space, light lab, and SG&A space is also progressing nicely with the number of employees and teams already making the move. And that expansion is on track to be fully completed in the early second quarter of 2023. These new facilities are an example of how we continue to make investments to support the long-term growth that we anticipate in our base business. Now, turning to slide 10 and our COVID outlook. As you all know, our part in supporting COVID-19 vaccines has been amazingly rewarding, and we are very proud of the role that we've continued to play in helping to address the pandemic. With about two-thirds of our revenue coming from the use of clean cap and COVID-19 vaccines in 2022, a central issue in many of our discussions with investors has been the durability of our COVID-related clean cap revenues into 2023 and beyond. The vaccine space clearly remains in substantial flux, and there are still a number of uncertainties around end-user demand for these vaccines. The uptake for the new bivalent booster vaccines has, frankly, not been great, with only 19 million people in the US receiving the new booster dose as of October 19th. As we discussed last quarter, we were estimating then that COVID-related vaccine production would likely drop by one-half to two-thirds from 2022 levels. That led us to anticipate that 2023 COVID revenues would drop proportionally for us to a range of $200 million to $300 million in 2023. Looking back to the end of last year, as we were heading into 2022, we had excellent visibility into demand from our major customers with whom we had both binding commitments and long range forecasts in place. Today, as we head into 2023, We are not in the same position, since we do not have those commitments or long-range forecasts from our major customers in hand. Additionally, based on the slow uptake of the new boosters, we believe it is likely that our customers have raw materials on hand as they start the year, which will negatively impact our revenue in 2023, particularly early in the year, as those customers work down any existing raw materials. As a result, we now believe that CleanCap COVID revenue for Maravai in 2023 could be half of what we most recently anticipated. Our current estimate for COVID-related CleanCap revenues is about $100 million in 2023, with limited shipments in the first half of 2023. Internally, we are also planning around that $100 million annual run rate as a reasonable assumption for COVID-related clean cap revenue in 2024 and beyond. In my closing remarks, I'll try to touch more on future guidance. Now, turning to slide 11, our biologic safety testing business. Our products and services in this business support high-growth markets in cell and gene therapy, vaccines, and biologics by providing process-related impurity analytics, along with offering innovative viral clearance prediction solutions that help our customers ensure the safety of their biopharmaceutical products. We continue to innovate and scale our offerings in BST to ensure superior technical support to offer the highest quality services and products and the most comprehensive catalog of products to meet our customers' needs. We anticipate launching our Pivotal Retrovirus Mock V Kit later this year, further building on the breadth of our product offerings. The Mach-V technology addresses an unmet opportunity for growth in viral impurity detection. Now, let me finish with a topic that may be on some of your minds, and that concerns our disagreement with Danaher regarding Trey Martin joining Maravai as our CEO. Following our hiring of Trey, Danaher filed a lawsuit against Trey and Maravai claiming a violation of a non-competition agreement and sought a temporary restraining order, which was granted, precluding Trey from working for Maravai pending a preliminary injunction hearing expected to occur within the next month or so. We are mounting a complete and vigorous defense against the suit. Public policy in California, where Trey is resident and Maravai has its headquarters, has recognized the unjust impact of similar contractual restrictions that are intended to limit the mobility of former employees. We are disappointed that Danaher has taken this action to try to limit Trey in advancing his career. We remain confident Trey is the right choice to lead Maravai through our next phase of growth. While we can't speculate on the full range of possible outcomes here, one possibility is that Trey will be reinstated as our CEO following the preliminary injunction hearing later this year. Another possibility is that he may somehow be limited in roles that he could play with Maravai for up to a year as he completes any remaining post-employment obligations that the court may find he has to his former employer. In the meantime, I'm quite happy to step back into the CEO role, as you can see. I feel we've been as transparent as we can with you on this matter right now, and I would ask for your understanding as we won't be taking any further questions on this legal matter unless we have something material to announce in the future. All right, now moving on to slide 12, I'll now ask Kevin to cover more details on our third quarter performance and update our guidance for the balance of the year. Kevin?
spk12: Thank you, Carl. Good afternoon, everyone. I'm happy to review our financial results for the third quarter and to discuss slide updates to our current guidance for the full year of 2022. So starting on slide 13. Beginning with the GAAP numbers, our GAAP net income before non-controlling interests was $100 million for the third quarter of 2022. This compares to $132 million for the third quarter of 2021. Note that certain prior year amounts were adjusted for the lease accounting standards change required under SAC 842. Income from operations was $117 million in the quarter for an operating margin of 61%. R&D spend in the quarter was over $5 million which compares to about $2 million from Q3 2021 as we continue to increase our R&D spend and focus on both on work around our clean cap franchise as well as other novel innovations. Moving to slide 14. Adjusted EBITDA, a non-GAAP measure, was $133 million for Q3 2022 compared to $155 million for Q3 2021. Our net adjustments from GAAP EBITDA to adjusted EBITDA continue to be small, only adding less than 6% from our GAAP EBITDA for the quarter, the vast majority tied to the non-cash stock-based compensation add-back. Our adjusted EBITDA margin was 69% in Q3 2022, a little better than our expectations for the quarter based on slightly better gross margins and favorable SG&A expenses. Now to slide 15. Here we present basic EPS, diluted EPS, and adjusted fully diluted EPS. Basic EPS is a gap measure. It's net income attributed to our Class A shares divided by the weighted average Class A shares. Diluted EPS, also a gap measure, starts with basic EPS. And to the extent that the assumed conversion of Class B shares and other equity awards are dilutive, then net income and weighted average shares outstanding using the calculation will be adjusted to reflect the dilutive effect of the conversion. the diluted effects of Class B shares and other equity awards were negligible in Q3 2022. Lastly, the simplest and most comparable metric of focus for us is adjusted fully diluted EPS, a non-gap measure which equals adjusted net income divided by the weighted average of both Class A and B shares and other dilutive securities. Our basic EPS for the third quarter was 34 cents. Diluted EPS was 34 cents. And adjusted fully diluted EPS was $0.37 per share. Our bottom line for the quarter was a bit ahead of our expectations from the higher margins in the quarter, as well as lower interest and tax expense, which both benefited from some advanced interest rate and tax planning tactics. Moving to slide 16. And a few balance sheet items and other financial metric highlights. As Carl noted, we ended the quarter in a record gross cash position with $617 million in cash and $540 million in long-term debt. Our strong EBITDA performance led to a robust adjusted free cash flow for the quarter of $119 million. That calculation of adjusted free cash flow, a non-GAAP measure, is based on our adjusted EBITDA of $133 million, less capital expenditures in the quarter of $14 million. We define capital expenditures as purchases of property and equipment, which are included in cash flows for investing activities, accounts payable, and accrued expenses offset by government funding recognized. and to the extent construction costs determined to be lesser improvements recorded as prepaid payments, including portions included in accounts receivable and accrued expenses also offset by government funding recognized. Capital expenditures in the quarter was consistent with our expectations, reflecting our focused investment in our facilities capacity expansion that Carl had touched on earlier. We continue to expect our net CapEx, as I just defined it, to be between $50 million and $55 million for the full year of 2022, which reflects about $28 million of anticipated offsets from the Department of Defense pursuant to the collaboration agreement we have with them. Now, of this total, about two-thirds will be classified as long-term other assets and the remainder as traditional fixed assets. The remainder of our $39 million current grant will likely offset CapEx in early 2023 as we complete the Flanders facility. Now, sitting on over $600 million in cash is a great position for Moravai to be in. Furthermore, as I briefly touched on our advanced planning results, having an interest rate cap contract, which effectively caps our cash-based interest rate at 6.5%. Overall, we're in a very strong position to lean into the M&A space over the remainder of 2022 and into 2023. We are currently actively evaluating multiple potential deals. Lastly, as I mentioned last quarter, We have structured Maravai in the vast majority of our contracts and treasury operations, predominantly in U.S. dollars, and thus are not facing any material foreign exchange impact in 2022. Now to provide some more insights into the business segment financial performance for the quarter, let's turn to slide 17. Our nucleic acid production business represented 91% of our total revenue in the quarter and generated $134 million in adjusted EBITDA, a 77% adjusted EBITDA margin. Clean cap revenues from our major COVID-19 vaccine customers were approximately 127 million in the third quarter of 2022. This compares to 131 million in Q3 of 2021. Our base nucleic acid production business, excluding clean cap revenue from our major COVID-19 vaccine customers, was down from Q3 2021, as our prior year had a large non-COVID-related order to one of our customers to support numerous of their non-COVID-related programs. Our biologic safety testing business contributed 9% of the company's revenue in the third quarter and continues to be impacted by the ongoing pandemic lockdowns in China and our ongoing decision not to ship into Russia. Our Cygnus branded products, which comprise virtually all of this segment's business, were down $1 million in the quarter. Our biologic safety testing business delivered $13 million of adjusted EBITDA in the quarter, a 79% EBITDA margin. Corporate expenses that are not included in the segment adjusted EBITDA totals were We're $14 million in the quarter, up from the Q3 2021 levels of $10 million, mainly due to investments in key personnel and systems to drive and support growth, as well as the additional investments in key leadership positions for both R&D and our commercial areas. We continue to be pleased with our ability to track key talent for all levels of Maravai, and at the end of September, we had a record 604 full-time employees, up 50 employees from June. We continue to add key talent to support our customers and our long-term plans. Now moving to slide 18. Our slight updates and tightening of our 2022 financial guidance ranges. We now expect revenues of $880 million to $890 million for the current year, including our updated estimate for around $600 million to $605 million of revenues associated with clean cap related COVID vaccine demand. The small movement in the midpoint of the revenue range of $10 million, or about 1%, is tied to the combination of lower COVID related revenues in 2022 and the lower expectations for our biologic safety testing business for the year. This update and guidance implies a midpoint for our base non-COVID clean cap business of about $282 million, or growth of approximately 17% from comparable 2021 levels. This base growth includes about 3% to 5% growth for our biologic safety testing segment, and about 35% to 40% growth in the base nucleic acid production segment. We are tightening our full year 2022 EBITDA guidance, a non-GAAP measure, to the range of $650 million to $660 million, compared to our previous guidance range of $640 million to $660 million, increasing the midpoint by $5 million. Based on this updated adjusted EBITDA guidance, our adjusted fully diluted EPS, a non-GAAP measure, is now updated to a range of $1.76 to $1.80 per share, compared to our prior guidance of $1.70 to $1.80 per share, increasing the midpoint by $0.03 per share. Now, obviously, with nine months complete, our updated full-year 2022 guidance, less our reported nine months results, provides basically our expectations for the current fourth quarter. To save analysts on the call the stress of making rapid calculations prior to our Q&A, let me lay that math out for you all at the approximate midpoints. For the fourth quarter, we expect total revenues of approximately $207 million, COVID-related clean cap revenue of about $127 million, base business revenue of about $80 million, which would represent growth of 65% over Q4 of 2021, adjusted EBITDA of around $147 million, which would be a margin of 71%, and adjusted EPS of about 33 cents. Now, on slide 19, you'll see other guidance assumptions for the full year of 2022. Adjusted fully diluted EPS is based on the assumption that all Class Bs are converted to Class A shares, which results in a fully forecasted diluted share count estimate of $255 million to $256 million for the full year of 2022. Additionally, our adjusted fully diluted EPS includes certain adjustments that do not reflect our core operations, and they're based on an adjusted effective tax rate of around 24%. As it relates to the other adjustments needed to get to our non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA range, our expectations for 2022 include interest expense between 21 million and 23 million, depreciation amortization of 30 million to 32 million, equity-based compensation, which we show as a reconciling item, to be about 17 million to 19 million, And as stated earlier, we expect our net capital expenditures to be about $50 million to $55 million, the vast majority tied to our new facility expansion. Our reconciliation of net income to GAAP EBITDA and from GAAP EBITDA to adjusted EBITDA is presented in our press release and at the end of this slide presentation. In addition, our segment-related information will be detailed in our Form 10-Q, which we plan to file in the next couple of days. To conclude, we continue to execute financially in line with our expectations and against the 2022 guidance that we initially set for 2022 revenues of $840 million to $880 million back in November of 2021. There has certainly been a lot made of the pre-COVID, COVID pandemic phase, and post-COVID pandemic phase for companies like Maravai. Although the future impact of COVID-related demand is still unclear to all, we remain in a great position for the long term. I recently looked back to some of our financial models from 2018, and we sit here with the biologic safety testing business that is right about where we projected it to be and a nucleic acid-base business well ahead of where we projected it to be. Additionally, we are $700 million ahead of our cash projections and have substantially more capabilities and infrastructure today for our long-term growth and success. Not only is Maravai a much larger, more profitable, and stronger business than anticipated years ago, but the success of mRNA has attracted a level of market-wide interest and investment much larger and broader than we believed it could be at the end of 22. Global conflicts and uncertainties and rising inflation and interest rates are all macro factors that impact us all in life sciences. We recognize these factors and make decisions understanding the broader markets. However, we also keep a steadfast conviction in our vision, our strategy, and remain focused on the long game. We are in a great position to move meaningfully forward and will continue to lean in and invest in those people, processes, facilities, and systems, as well as assets that best position us for our long-term success. Thank you for your time today. Now I'm going to turn the call back over to Carl for some final remarks on slide 20.
spk09: All right. Well, thanks, Kevin. In short summary, we have delivered a solid 2022 thus far and look forward to ending the year in line with our stated expectations and quite possibly detailing more about our M&A activities for you. Before we wrap up our prepared remarks, I want to further discuss our current outlook. With the lowered expectations for COVID revenues in 2023 and our discussions around the level of COVID-related revenues that we now estimate for our own business planning purposes, we felt it important to provide some additional details around how we see things moving forward. Our base nucleic acid business continues to perform well, as you would expect in this environment. We see continued strong growth in that business based on our capabilities, customer interest, and market momentum. We also see our biologic safety testing business resuming broader market growth levels in 2023. Based on this and the work we are doing for our annual budget and long-term planning process, we believe our base business will deliver revenue growth of at least 20% for the company in 2023. We see that that, in combination with our estimated 100 million in COVID-related clean cap revenues, resulting in an adjusted EBITDA margin range of 40% to 50% next year. We will be completing our planning activities in the coming months, and we'll look forward to providing our detailed 2023 guidance, as well as our long-term growth and profitability targets as part of our year-end 2022 earnings call in February. Until that time, we are as focused as ever on execution in our business and for our customers, providing our employees with great work environment and career development opportunities, and making decisions that we wholeheartedly believe will create long-term shareholder value. I'd now like to turn the call back over to Doug to open the line for your questions. Doug?
spk04: Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, at this time, we'll be conducting a question and answer session. If you'd like to ask a question, you may press star 1 on your telephone keypad. A confirmation tone will indicate your line is in a question queue. You may press star 2 if you would like to remove your question from the queue. For participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the star key. Our first question comes from the line of Theos Savant with Morgan Stanley. Please proceed with your question.
spk10: Hey guys, good evening. So maybe just to kick things off, Carl, can you just elaborate on how much of the $125 to $130 million in COVID here in the third and fourth quarter was related to take or pay revenue? Is that a dynamic that we should be keeping in mind as we think about the margin headwinds, particularly in 2023? I know you laid out that 40% to 50% EBITDA margin estimate out there. But just trying to make sense of the moving pieces here, the regular decline in COVID versus any take or pay dynamics that we should be keeping in mind.
spk09: Yeah, Tejas, good to hear from you. I think the right way to answer that question is to tell you that in general, unlike some of the other sort of people who are participants in the CDMO marketplace, we don't settle contracts without shipping products. So I would say in general what you see in our margin numbers or our forecast is largely product being shipped.
spk10: Got it. Okay, that's helpful. And then, you know, we heard from a couple of CDMOs earlier this week just around elevated cancellations, or rather no cancellations but a slowdown in drug pipeline progress. So just curious as to whether you're seeing any of this dynamic start to play out in your customer base at all?
spk09: No, we really haven't seen it in the MR&A services side of the business, Tejas.
spk10: Got it. Clear enough. And then on the new product launch here with the GMP-grade N1 methyl PU, I believe you call it, Carl. Bit of a tongue twister.
spk09: Actually, I said pseudo-U. I'm not sure my name is P-U, but okay, go ahead.
spk10: So it sounds like a pretty interesting product here and pretty differentiated in terms of the context of mRNA manufacturing. Would you be in a position to put any dollar amounts in terms of the SAM here, if you will, and how you see that opportunity ramping in the near term, or is it just really another arrow in your quiver?
spk09: Well, look, I don't think we could give you SAM data right now. We're certainly not in a position to give you specific guidance on 2023 just yet, but I would tell you that we think this is representative of the trend in the industry. which as more and more big pharma become involved, and I think we've discussed this on previous calls, as they become involved in the mRNA field, their expectations and demands in terms of the quality of the inputs that they utilize are increasing, and in some cases increasing rapidly. So we think this is a good exemplar of what might happen in the future, and being first to be able to offer those in various products is going to be important to us.
spk10: Very helpful. Thank you, guys. Thank you.
spk04: Our next question comes from the line of John Sauerbeer with UBS. Please proceed with your question.
spk08: Hi. Thanks for taking the question. So you had mentioned in your prepared remarks, you know, some increased raw materials on hand with COVID customers, maybe some D stock in there. I guess, do you see this also in your base NAP, and is that a factor going into the lower growth trajectory next year?
spk09: No, John, I don't really think it is. You know, this would be specific to the COVID vaccine area where there was a high premium put by our customers on being prepared for the worst case. It certainly doesn't apply generally to other RNA therapeutics. And remember, those are much earlier in their development. So it's not like any of these products are yet being commercialized and people are approaching it from a cost savings point of view. They're trying to just go as fast as they can.
spk08: Got it. And I guess then, you know, on that, that growth trajectory next year, I guess, just maybe, you know, elaborate on some of the drivers there, you know, year over year. And then, you know, the company does have meaningful capacity coming online. Maybe just any color on how some of these projects are maturing and how you can fill some of that capacity.
spk09: Ken, do you want to take a shot at that?
spk12: Yeah, certainly. You know, look, I think that we're really pleased with what we're seeing, the feedback we're getting from our customers. And we certainly touched on the GMP N1 methyl CDU. Just to give you some context, I mean, We've had over 150 customers ordering that product over the past three years on an REO basis. So part of it is going to be conversion and the related pricing increase that comes with that conversion. We're already seeing POs and supply greens lining up for the GMP version. So that's just a great example, as Carl said earlier, of how our new capabilities and the increase in quality and the focus on quality has helped drive some of that growth. When you kind of break down, as we've talked about in the past, you have various things going on with the nucleic acid production. You have the All of the synthesis inputs like NTPs we talked about, you have the plasmid market, you have CleanCap as a standalone product, you have the mRNA services with CleanCap as a CDMO, and then other oligos and kind of base things like we have with our Glenn research. They all have different growth rates, but we continue to be very excited sort of about each of those lines. But as you break it down, really those oligosynthesis inputs as well as that mRNA CDMO business is really where you're seeing a lot of the interest today, and those are the higher two growth lines within that portfolio.
spk08: Last one for me, and I apologize if I missed this. Did you say how much of the $100 million in 2023 COVID clean cap has already been booked for next year?
spk12: We did not, no.
spk08: Would you comment on that?
spk12: We're not going to get into that right at this stage. I mean, right now we have a lot of conversations with our customers just because of a lot of different demand, and we have a lot of different customers within that group, and they all have different dynamics, so it's a little bit hard to generalize at this point.
spk09: But, John, I would say that our experience is probably not very much different from a number of other peers in the space where the prior visibility that we all had going into 22 related to COVID demand is much reduced this year going into 23.
spk08: Got it. Thanks for taking the questions.
spk09: Yeah, you bet.
spk04: Our next question comes from the line of Paul Knight with KeyBank. Please proceed with your question.
spk11: Hi, Carl. The Q4 guidance on non-COVID implies a pretty significant year-over-year jump on Q4. Could you talk about the dynamics behind that and then The other is when you talk to 2023, you're mentioning low 20s growth. I think you were in kind of in the 30% area last call. Could you talk to that as well?
spk09: Let me ask Kevin to comment on those, and I'll fill in.
spk12: Yeah, sure. Yeah, Paul, as we've talked about before, specifically the Q4, you know, there are a couple dynamics there. Some of that is standalone clean cap for non-COVID-related programs. We've seen that spike up and down. Last year, we saw it at a high number in Q3 of 21. It'll be at a higher number in Q4. That's just based upon our customers' demand for clean cap for non-COVID-specific programs. We also have a nice pipeline of CDMO-type mRNA services in the fourth quarter, and that's really going to drive that number. As it relates to looking forward, I know we talked about some general market trends and what we've seen historically in you know, not getting into specific 23 guidance, but just looking kind of at how we see a long-term growth rates and sort of a baseline for next year. Again, I think we feel real good about the business. We feel real good about our growth rates. When you look at the base business, and I think we're just entering it with what we think is going to be something we can achieve across the business lines. You know, we have some components when you look at some of the lines of the business that, you know, are just certainly lower grower components of the business. But when you really look at the key drivers, what we're building into and what we see is long-term demand drivers in algosynthesis inputs and mRNA clean cap services. For highly modified MRNAs, those are at those higher growth rates, which are consistent with the market trends. And then you layer on top of that some of the conversions for quality and other things. That's the part that's growing at that 30% to 35%. Some of the rest of the business is growing at lower rates, and that blended average is getting closer to a 20% baseline that we'd like to throw out there for next year.
spk04: Our next question comes from the line of Matt Sykes with Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your question.
spk06: Hi, this is Evian from Matt. Thanks for taking our questions. First, on your capital allocation strategy, are there any specific areas of interest or potential gaps you're looking to fill? And also, could you give us an update on what the landscape looks like at this point?
spk09: Well, generally, I think our view here is that there are other pieces to the puzzle that our customers are looking for, and we try as much as we can to focus in on those areas, whether they be other components that are used to manufacture mRNA or perhaps other nucleic acid-based products and other ways of delivering those products. So reasonably, I think you could expect us to be hanging around the verticals. We've always been interested in acquisitions around the biologic safety testing business, but unfortunately there are not many of those that are logical, strategic fits because of the specialized nature of those products. And then I think in terms of the current environment, it's getting better, I would say, than it has been for the last six months. I think people are coming to grips with current valuations, maybe not fully. but more so than they were at least initially as the market correction occurred. And I think we do see a large number of opportunities that are relevant to us based on what I just said that we're pursuing. So improving, but not there yet.
spk06: Great. Thank you. That's helpful. And then recognizing biologic safety testing was negatively impacted by China's Lockdowns and then also Russia. Are there any updates you could provide for the balance of the year as we see these dynamics persist?
spk09: No, because I think they are kind of spotty as it concerns China, and it's just the luck of the draw. So you have large customers through our distribution channel there who happen to be in cities that get affected multiple times. They suffer the difficulties of it. So I would say that there's not much else there. We continue to maintain that our decision on exiting the Russian market was appropriate and feel comfortable with that.
spk06: Great. Thank you. Thank you.
spk04: Our next question comes from the line of Matt LaRue with William Blair. Please proceed with your question.
spk01: Hi, this is Madeline Mullen on for Matt LaRue. Quick on the raw materials. I know you mentioned that you thought it would impact the first half of the year. Have you heard anything from your COVID customers about how much inventory they have, like how much higher it might be above normal levels, anything like that?
spk09: No, and I guess the reason is nobody knows what normal is, right? This has just been going on for a few years, so that's a hard one to pin down. But, no, we don't have real good visibility onto the customer's individual inventory situation and how they view it. We're just reflecting the fact that absent specific sales forecast, we don't want to kind of stick our finger up in the wind and make a guess.
spk01: Got it. That makes sense. And then looking at the non-COVID mRNA therapeutic pipeline, are there any candidates that you see becoming catalysts in the next couple of years? And can you talk a little bit about how the dynamics for you change as a therapeutic moves through the clinic?
spk09: Well, you know, that's an interesting thing. I mean, I think people always focus on who are the winners going to be, which is sort of a natural thing. super hard to tell with therapies like this, particularly for those that are directed at rare diseases because it's just so difficult to anticipate or run pilot clinical trials until you get to your pivotal trial. So I don't think we consider our business to be picking the winners. We believe that widely serving the largest number of participants in the early stages is the best way to maximize the probability that we're working with those folks who ultimately do have a game-changing application. And so we're doing that. The dynamic about what changes over time is there's a greater focus, obviously, on quality standards and compliance and moving more into a consultative role as you're developing the procedures and effectively the manufacturing processes that would be used for later stages. So I think the customer expectations of closer collaboration versus a little bit more hands-off, here's my sequence, make this for me, which is how I would characterize the early stage. Later stage becomes more consultative.
spk01: Great, thank you.
spk09: You're welcome.
spk04: Our next question comes from the line of Michael Ryskin with Bank of America. Please proceed with your question.
spk02: Great. Thanks. I'm going to try to squeeze in a couple really quick ones. First, Carl, your commentary on COVID in 2023 and beyond, you know, you're still pointing to about 100 million per year in 2024 and 2025 and so forth. you know, your last guide was more of 200 to 300 million. So given how quickly that's changing and given what you're seeing from other CDMO and bioprocess players where they're essentially assuming zero COVID bioprocessing, you know, pretty quickly, sort of what's the rationale for keeping that in the model? Isn't that just further risk of downside? So why not strip it out now?
spk09: Well, Michael, because we don't think COVID demand is going to go away. That's the bottom line. So we're partnered with the team that has roughly two-thirds market share, depending on where you look at it, of the COVID market. Neither they nor we think that market is going to go to zero. But if you think about it on a steady state basis, what we're doing is reducing it down to about roughly 15%, 18% of what it was at its peak this year. So I think that that's a reasonable assumption. If you back into some of Pfizer's statements about what their expected volumes might be and analyst projections there. I think it triangulates pretty nicely on that. I'm not aware that anybody has that going to zero.
spk02: Okay. And then on the EBITDA margins for next year, 40% to 50%. Again, I appreciate your comment on investing in the business and sort of setting the company up right for the longer term. But that's still on the lower end of sort of our assumption, even if you adjust for the lower term. you know, COVID contribution, especially if you look at what the business was doing in 2019 and four years later, you've got a lot more volume there. So can you walk us through the bridge there from your EBITDA margin this year, you know, coming in at 70% range, but 40 to 50 next year, that's a pretty big step down.
spk12: Kevin, would you like to take that? Yeah. I mean, look, I think certainly, you know, the COVID related clean cap is a big driver of that. Certainly. I mean, that is a, a high margin product for us. So, you know, you complement that with a handful of things. And again, you know, our investments that we're making are really looking out multiple years here. We're just happy to be seeing 23 as a, you know, a transitional year where you have that decline of high margin clean cap revenue contribution in the same period as you're bringing online three new facilities. and continuing to expand your internal organic R&D engine as well as your commercial engine for the long term. I mean, so those things just come together all in the same year and lead you at the lower end of that EBITDA range. But again, we're not managing the business for next quarter's EBITDA or even next year's EBITDA specifically. You know, we're putting in the things that we feel need to be in place and need to be in place as soon as possible, you know, take advantage of the opportunity we see over the next three, five, ten years with where we're playing. So, I'm very happy with the investments we're making and how it's setting us up for the long-term success, certainly because of those confluence of factors that I just spoke of. The margins are going to be lower next year, and we hope to bring that up as we grow and as we grow up at the transitional year that 2023 is going to represent.
spk09: Yeah, and Michael, I would add on that one, too, that if you step back and look at it, And you think about a pure life sciences company in sort of a cutting-edge part of the field that's growing the base business at 20% or greater, as we indicated, and delivering margins above 40% on the EBITDA line is a pretty compelling both investment opportunity and a pretty compelling business for us to run. Admittedly, this year is really superior. Next year, it looks pretty darn good.
spk02: Okay. And if I could squeeze in one last quick one. On the non-COVID nucleic acid piece, you touched on 3Q21, had that tough compare, which you called out at the time. But so if you just look at this year on a dollar basis, 1Q, 2Q, 3Q, The revenues for non-coated liquid gas are flat and they'd actually be down sequentially if it wasn't for that canceled order in 2Q. So is this sort of what we should be expecting from just progression over the course of the year? Because I think we kind of anticipated some sequential ramp as the year went forward. So anything to touch on there in terms of timing through the course of the year, how that should trend?
spk12: Yeah, no, it's really one of those things that doesn't just step nicely every quarter. for various reasons. Like I said, sometimes we get bulk orders just for clean caps. Sometimes we have multiple jobs getting wrapped up and getting billed out as they relate to our CDMO business. So we just haven't got to the point where we have a quarterly rhythm just because we just haven't got enough customers progressing into those later phases that it smoothed it out. So we had a very strong Q3 last year, it stepped down in Q4 this year. It's going to step up in Q4. It's just the nature of the business. I think as we grow, those should smooth out a little bit, but that's just the nature of what we're seeing right now.
spk09: Yeah, it's a little bit noisy, and that's a law of the smaller numbers probably as much as anything else. All right. Appreciate that. Thanks so much. All right. Thank you. Doug, do we have anyone else in queue?
spk04: Yes, we do. Our next one comes from the line of Dan Arias with Stiefel. Please proceed with your question.
spk07: Hey, Doug. Hey, Carl. Just wanted to ask a couple of quick ones here. Just thinking about some of the out-year drivers that you have working for you to your point prior, one of the things that came out of that analyst day that you did or the R&D day was that there are things in the pipeline that use a lot more clean cap, actually substantially more in some cases. Do you think the 23 is a year where that might start to matter, or do we need to just get further down the development pipeline process in order to really kind of move the needle there?
spk09: Yeah, that's a thoughtful question. I would say I agree with Kevin on the characterization of 23 as a transitional year. I don't think you're going to see many, if any, of those therapeutic compounds, which is what you're alluding to there, get clearance and commercial traction right away. So I think those are more longer-term drivers of demand. But certainly there's a lot of people doing it, as you can see from our customer account numbers in each of the various segments, if you will. They're all increasing robustly.
spk07: Okay, helpful. And then just maybe a last quick one. When it comes to Pfizer and the vaccine forecasts, Do you get that forecast ahead of the guidance for the year, or do you find out about it basically when we do, when they get on their call for investors? I'm just generally curious.
spk09: Interesting question. Let's just say that we do pay very close attention when Pfizer says something two days before our earnings call. Is that clear enough?
spk07: Yeah, fair enough.
spk09: All right.
spk07: Thanks, Carl. You bet.
spk04: Our next question comes from the line of Dan Leonard with Credit Suisse. Please proceed with your question.
spk09: Hey, Bill.
spk00: Thanks. Hi, Carl. I have two. So previously, Carl, you gave a $2 billion dose number as the backbone for your 2023 COVID forecast, COVID clean cap forecast. What's the new dose number you're assuming behind the $100 million view for endemic COVID?
spk09: I'd basically divide it by two since we're talking about moving from 200 million in our low end down to 100 million. So I think it's that degree. There may be some inefficiencies that would cause it to be a little bit higher, but I think that's overall generally a good estimate.
spk00: Okay, thank you. And then my follow-up, just can you comment at all on margins in 1H versus 2H in 2023? Sure.
spk09: No, we haven't gotten to that point with our guidance yet. So I think that's a stay tuned for the end of the year call.
spk00: Okay. Thank you.
spk09: Thank you. All right. Doug, anything else?
spk04: We have one last one from Brandon Collier with Jeffrey. Please continue with your question.
spk03: Hey, thanks for explaining. It's just a housekeeping one for Kevin. The large custom orders that didn't recur in the NAP segment from 3Q last year, could you just size that? Is there another similar headwind on a year-over-year basis in the fourth quarter?
spk12: No, we actually had a bit of a down quarter in Q4 of 2021 sequentially there from the run rates we've been seeing in the NAP business, you know, in the fourth quarter or so. You know, it was a more than $10 million specific order that came through from a customer, again, related to non-COVID demand. You know, we saw that in the third quarter of 2021, and we'll have some like, even though it's a different customer this time around, in the fourth quarter, driving some clean cap standalone demand in the fourth quarter of this year that's already locked in, in the fourth quarter of 2022, and some continued good momentum demand. on our MRNA services business that'll result in that, um, that strong Q4 finish to 2022 in the non COVID business.
spk03: Thanks. And last one, um, Carl, is it safe to say based on your comments that the CEO transition being in flux won't diminish your appetite or willingness to act when it comes to target assets you'd like to pursue?
spk09: Absolutely not. We're, we're, you know, fully engaged in the same things that we were looking at, uh, a month ago, and our appetite for those deals remains as robust as it was the first time around. Another way of saying we're not going to let ourselves get distracted.
spk03: Very good. Thank you.
spk09: All right. Thank you. And Doug, I think we can turn it back over to Deb now.
spk04: Yes. I'd like to hand it back to Deborah Hart for closing remarks.
spk05: Well, thanks, Doug. And we want to thank you all for joining the call today. We'll be participating in a couple of financial conferences this quarter, so you can find out more details about that from our website. Feel free to call me with any additional questions, and we hope you all have a great evening. Thank you.
spk06: Thank you.
spk05: Bye.
spk04: Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's teleconference. Thank you for your participation. You may disconnect your lines at this time, and have a wonderful day.
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