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spk04: Good afternoon and welcome to Marvell's Technologies Fiscal Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. All participants will be in a listen-only mode. Should you need assistance, please signal a conference specialist by pressing the star key followed by zero. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. Ashish Saran, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
spk11: Thank you and good afternoon, everyone. Welcome to Marvell's third quarter fiscal year 2022 earnings call. Joining me today are Matt Murphy, Marvell's president and CEO, and Gene Hu, our CFO. I would like to remind everyone that certain comments made today may include forward-looking statements, which are subject to significant risks and uncertainties that could cause our actual results to differ materially from management's current expectations. Please review the cautionary statements and risk factors contained in our earnings press release which we filed with the SEC today and posted on our website, as well as the most recent 10-K and 10-Q findings. We do not intend to update a forward-looking statement. During our call today, we will refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures. A reconciliation between our GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures is available in the investor relations section of our website. We closed the acquisition of Inovium on October 5th, 2021. Therefore, the results we reported today for the third quarter of fiscal 2022 include the results from the Inovium business for 25 days of the fiscal quarter. Revenue from the acquired Inovium business is reported entirely within our data center and market. Please note that the guidance we have provided for the third quarter of fiscal 2022 on August 26, 2021 has not included any expectations of the results from Inovium. The financial outlook for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2020 to provide it today includes expected results from the acquired Inovium business for the full quarter. With that, I'll turn the call over to Matt for his comments on our performance. Matt?
spk10: Thanks, Ashish, and good afternoon, everyone. I'll start with a summary of our third quarter GAAP results. Revenue was $1.21 billion, which was above the high end of our guidance and represents another record achievement for Marvell. GAAP gross margin was 48.5%. Gap operating loss was $33 million, and loss per diluted share was $0.08. Revenue grew 13 percent sequentially and 61 percent year-over-year, an acceleration from the first half of this fiscal year. We saw great momentum in all five of our end markets, with revenue growing both sequentially and year-on-year. Our data center, carrier, enterprise networking, and auto industrial end markets all achieved record revenue and performed above guidance. Excellent operational and financial execution resulted in revenue 6% above the midpoint of our guidance. Our operations team continues to do a great job in sourcing incremental supply, and we are starting to see the fruits of their labor. Supply was better than expected in the third quarter, and we expect continued improvements as we move into the fourth quarter and next year. The additional capacity has better positioned us to catch up to the growth in demand, which so far has outpaced increases in supply. Moving on to our non-GAAP results for the quarter. Non-GAAP gross margin was a record, 65.1 percent, and we delivered $418 million in non-GAAP operating income. Non-GAAP operating margin was also a record at 34.5 percent. Higher revenue coupled with stronger gross margin drove non-GAAP earnings per share to 43 cents, 13 percent above the midpoint of guidance, growing 72% year over year, which represents phenomenal growth in earnings. These are tremendous accomplishments, and I am very proud of the outstanding execution by our entire Marvell team in driving such strong results. Let me now move on to discussing our five end markets, starting with data center. In our data center end market, revenue for the third quarter was 500 million, growing 15% sequentially, and 109% year-over-year, exceeding our guidance. Both the standalone Marvell business and the acquired InFi business delivered strong growth driven by robust demand from cloud customers. I would note that our on-premise data center business also grew sequentially and year-over-year. Data center is our most diverse end market with multiple product lines contributing to sequential revenue growth. These include 200 and 400 gig PAM4 electro-optics, data center interconnect ZR modules, SSD and HDD controllers, cloud-optimized SOCs, and Ethernet switches. In addition to strong end market demand, the majority of these product lines are also benefiting from the start of new product ramps, which we expect will continue to drive sustained growth. As an example, in our SSD business, we benefited from a strong ramp of DIY controllers directly to a Tier 1 cloud customer. Remember, you heard at Investor Day, Marvell has been winning a large number of incremental cloud-optimized silicon designs, and these are now in development. In addition, the design wind funnel and level of activity on cloud-optimized silicon engagements continues to accelerate, and we have recently won another socket with our storage accelerator. At our Investor Day, we discussed this new $500 million market for our storage business in cloud storage accelerators. and disclosed our first design win with a cloud customer. Now, a key storage partner, Kioxia, recently announced production availability of their NVMe over fabric SSDs, which will also use our storage accelerators. These SSDs are for Ethernet bunch of flash systems designed for applications such as artificial intelligence, machine learning, and high-performance computing. The Kioxia SSDs connect to the network fabric natively using Ethernet. by integrating a Marvell storage accelerator, which converts NVMe into 25 gigabit Ethernet. We are excited to see this new opportunity take shape with multiple customers starting to adopt our storage accelerators. Turning now to Inovium. During the quarter, we closed the acquisition, adding their cloud optimized switches to our broad data center portfolio. We're pleased that company co-founder and CTO, Puneet Agarwal, and the R&D team have become a part of Marvell. We are confident that our combined switch business businesses are now well positioned to be a strong provider of ethernet switches to data centers. And we see an incredible opportunity ahead for Marvell in this high growth market. We expect the acquisition of Inovium will result in 150 million in incremental revenue next fiscal year. As we ramp switches into a large tier one cloud customer, they had one prior to the acquisition. We are also looking forward to supporting additional cloud customers, such as LinkedIn, who are deploying Inovium's TerraLink space switches in production across multiple data centers with the Sonic Network OS. Sonic is an open network operating system which provides cloud customers with more choice and interoperability, as well as the ability to scale. We recently announced our commitment to supporting Sonic across both our Prestera and TerraLink products. Moving on to our expectations for revenue from our data center and market in our fourth fiscal quarter. Similar to the third quarter, we are expecting another strong performance led by cloud customers across a broad range of products. We expect data center revenue to more than double from a year ago, and we project sequential growth in the double digits on a percentage basis in the fourth quarter. We are pleased with the strength we are seeing from the cloud and market, which we expect will remain a strong driver of sustained growth for Marvell. Looking out further in time, we are also excited by the immense potential for another phase of growth as large-scale virtual environments, such as Facebook is doing with their metaverse, start to gain traction. For simplicity, while I will use the metaverse as a general descriptor for this discussion, we expect many different implementations of virtual environments enabled by a broad set of companies and ecosystems. Regardless of the form these environments take, the data sets will be exponentially larger compared to the current internet, which is largely two-dimensional, and latency will need to be extremely low to realistically simulate a real-world environment. As a result, we expect the metaverse will significantly accelerate a number of key trends which are already occurring in the cloud today, including the need to store huge amounts of data in a secure environment, connected by high-speed electro-optic links to custom compute engines. This next level of massive scaling makes the metaverse an even stronger candidate for cloud-optimized silicon solutions that Marvell is currently enabling. This meshes perfectly with the core competencies we have already developed across compute, storage, security, networking, high-speed electro-optics, and customization, which are driving our current success and these are equally applicable to the variety of virtual environments which will develop over time. The metaverse also has the potential to be a killer app for 5G, another area of strength for Marvell. Multiple cloud customers have already engaged with us as they start designing the architecture of their next generation of data infrastructure to enable a significantly richer set of virtual applications and experiences. Turning now to our carrier infrastructure and markets. Revenue for the third quarter was 215 million, growing 9% sequentially and 28% year over year, exceeding our guidance. Growth was driven by our 5G products, ramping at multiple customers. We were also able to improve supply for our wired business to enable sequential growth. Looking at the fourth quarter, we expect a strong ramp in our 5G business of approximately 30% sequentially. And as a result, we project our combined carrier infrastructure revenue across our wireless and wired-in markets to grow sequentially in the low teens on a percentage basis, while year-on-year growth is expected to accelerate to over 40%. It's exciting to see this step up in our 5G business, and we expect significant additional growth over the next several years as 5G adoption continues to grow around the globe, combined with Marvell content gains from designs we have won but not yet begun to ramp. Moving on to our enterprise networking end market. Revenue for the third quarter was $247 million, growing 11% sequentially and 56% year over year, with the majority of the growth coming from standalone Marvell products. This performance was significantly better than our expectations, as our operations team did an excellent job securing additional supply to better address the increase in demand for our products. From a product perspective, in the third quarter, the continuation of strong year-on-year growth was driven primarily by Marvell's Ethernet networking portfolio. We have been gaining share and benefiting from the very deliberate investments we have made in our enterprise Ethernet switch platform, as well as the combined Marvell and Equantify portfolio. In addition, our content has been growing, driven by an increase in multi-gig Ethernet adoption. Looking ahead to the fourth quarter for our enterprise networking end market, we project revenues sequentially to be up in the low to mid single digits on a percentage basis, and year-over-year growth is expected to remain very strong at approximately 60%. We expect the strong growth to be driven by continued share gains from Marvell products combined with ongoing recovery in the enterprise networking end market. Turning to our automotive and industrial end market, which is served primarily by standalone Marvell businesses, revenue for the third quarter was $67 million, growing 16% sequentially and 114% year over year, driven by ongoing ramps in our auto business. I'm pleased to report that our team has now driven our auto business to over a $140 million annualized revenue run rate in the third quarter, ahead of our prior expectations. We are benefiting from a faster pace of adoption of our Ethernet solutions by auto OEMs, who are prioritizing the production of their latest models, which tend to have higher semiconductor content. We are confident that we are well on our way to driving a multi-hundred-million-dollar revenue stream from our auto Ethernet business over the next few years. Looking beyond connectivity, our next multi-billion-dollar market opportunity for Marvell is in automotive compute. The future of technology in cars is all about electrification and intelligence with embedded security and onboard storage in a fully networked environment. Similar to the rise of optimized silicon and cloud, Automotive OEMs are realizing that to differentiate their products and deliver the most value to their customers, they need unique technology and IP to be embedded in compute silicon optimized to their specific platforms. You don't need to look too far to see evidence for this sea change. Recent industry commentary, including from Ford and Volkswagen, talks about their focus on developing internal silicon design expertise, desire to customize off-the-shelf compute, and their intentions to design and develop their own shifts for autonomous vehicles. Similar to our successful strategy of partnering with hyperscale customers for cloud optimized silicon, we are confident that our co-development business model and rich IP portfolio is equally attractive to automotive OEMs. In this model, the design is done in true partnership with the customer focusing on the portions proprietary to their platform and Marvell bringing our own unique compute, security, Ethernet networking, and storage silicon IP to the table. The end solution is a semi-custom design which represents the best of both worlds, allowing our customers to achieve their ambitions and retain control of their roadmap. In doing so, they can not only preserve their differentiation with a faster time to market, but it will also enable a lower level of investment thanks to Marvell. We see compute becoming an increasingly important part of our growing automotive business, adding to our very successful Ethernet connectivity solutions. Reflecting this broadening of our portfolio, I'm very pleased to introduce Marvell's new brand for automotive solutions, Brightlane, which includes our gigabit and multi-gigabit Ethernet switches and PHYs for connectivity and our Octeon processors for compute. At our investor day, we had discussed our first major auto compute win based on our Octeon Brightlane platform. The semi-custom design is now in development. We are seeing a significant increase in compute-related activity with additional auto OEMs, both traditional and new market entrants. And I look forward to updating you on our progress in this exciting new long-term growth pillar for Marvell. Turning to the outlook for the fourth fiscal quarter for our auto and industrial end market, we expect strong revenue growth to continue. We project sequential growth in the double digits on a percentage basis, and year-over-year growth to remain above 100%. Moving on to our consumer end market, revenue for the third quarter was $183 million, growing 10% sequentially and 20% year-over-year. Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, we expect revenue to grow sequentially in the low single digits on a percentage basis and year-on-year growth in the double digits on a percentage basis. We are benefiting from strong growth driven by our SSD controllers that we have targeted at differentiated, sticky, long-lived, and high ROI applications, such as game consoles. In closing, we delivered very strong results for our third quarter, and we expect this momentum to continue in our fourth quarter and next year. Both the acquired InFi business and the standalone Marvell business are firing on all cylinders. In the third quarter, the standalone Marvell business delivered strong year-over-year revenue growth, close to 30 percent. The InFi business performed even better. The midpoint of our guidance for revenue in the fourth quarter implies a similar approximately 30 percent year-over-year growth rate for each of these businesses. We are proud of these results and our outlook for growth in the fourth quarter, which is well above the high end of our long-term revenue growth target of a 15 to 20 percent CAGR. Securing capacity for growth remains the highest priority for our operations team, even as the supply expansion comes with an increase in input costs. As we have done throughout the supply crunch, we are working with our customers to adjust prices to offset the impact of these cost increases, which let us jointly benefit from sustained growth. As we look at next fiscal year, we will continue to drive supply improvements, and we expect demand to remain above the high end of our long-term target model. As a result, we anticipate a sustained period of strong revenue growth for Marvell. From a base of approximately $4.4 billion in fiscal 2022, we expect to combine Marvell and InFi business to continue growing in fiscal 2023 at the 30% year-on-year rate we are currently achieving. On top of this, we expect an additional $150 million of revenue in fiscal 2023, resulting from the Inovium acquisitions. We are also excited about the setup for growth beyond fiscal 2023. At our investor day, you heard us describe our participation in end markets collectively expected to grow at a 13% TAGR. In addition, we have a number of growth drivers which we expect will result in our revenue growing faster than our end markets. We discussed our expectations for a step up in incremental revenue from the start of new design win ramps. We updated our expectations for revenue from cloud optimized silicon design wins to ramp to $400 million in fiscal 2024, a year earlier than prior projections. These wins are further projected to double to $800 million in revenue in fiscal 2025. In 5G, starting in fiscal 2024, we expect to benefit from an increase in content at Nokia when we start ramping our 5-nanometer Octeon embedded processors into their 5G base station. Over the same timeframe, our auto Ethernet connectivity business is expected to make significant progress towards driving revenue over $500 million annually, and our Electro-Optics PAM, Coherent, and ZR portfolio is also projected to remain on a high growth trajectory. In summary, while we have been delivering strong results for multiple quarters, we are confident that we are still in the early stages of a sustained high growth period for Marvell. We are looking forward to reaping the benefits of the investments we have made in our business over the last few years. With that, I'll turn the call over to Jean for more detail on our recent results and outlook.
spk01: Thanks, Matt, and good afternoon, everyone. I'll start with a review of our financial results for the third quarter and then provide our current outlook for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2022. Revenue in the third quarter was $1.211 billion. exceeding the high end of our guidance range, growing 13% sequentially and 61% year-over-year. Please note that the acquisition of Innovium added approximately $5 million in revenue, which was not contemplated in our original guidance for the third quarter. Revenue growth was robust from all five of our end markets. Data Center remained our largest end market, driving 41% of consolidated revenue. Enterprise networking was the next largest, with 20% of total revenue, followed by carrier infrastructure at 18%, consumer at 15%, and auto industrial at 6%. Gas growth margin was 48.5%, which included the remaining amortization of in-flight inventory step-up cost. Non-gas growth margin was 65.1% revenue, exceeding the high end of our guidance range primarily due to better than expected and the market revenue mix. In particular, revenue from our enterprise networking and the market was significantly better than our guidance. Gap operating expenses were $621 million. Non-gap operating expenses were $371 million. which included 25 days of innovative operating expenses of approximately $5 million. Our gas operating loss was $33 million. Non-gas operating profit was $418 million, or 34.5% of revenue, an all-time record, demonstrating the strong leverage in our operating model while we continue to invest for long-term revenue growth. For the third quarter, gas loss per dilute share was $0.08. Non-gap income per dilute share was $0.43, $0.02 above the high end of our guidance. Earnings per share grew 26% sequentially and 72% year-over-year, driven by strong top-line revenue momentum and execution on both growth and operating margins. Now turning to our balance sheet and cash flow. During the quarter, cash flow from operations was $265 million. We returned $50 million to shareholders through cash dividends. We paid down $151 million of our long-term debt during the third quarter. As of the end of the third fiscal quarter, our long-term debt was $4.5 billion. Our gross debt to EBITDA ratio was three times, and net debt to EBITDA ratio was 2.7 times. Inventory at the end of the third quarter was $629 million. $71 million of this inventory balance is from Innovium, including $42 million in step-up cost due to purchase price counting. We anticipate amortizing this step-up cost over the next two quarters. We have also increased our work-in-process inventory to support the revenue growth in revenue-aware forecasting. In summary, the Marvell team executed exceptionally well, delivering accelerated top-line growth and earning expansion much faster than revenue growth. Now turning to our guidance for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2022. Please note this guidance includes expected results from the Inovium business for the full quarter. We are forecasting revenue to be in the range of $1.32 billion. plus or minus 3%. We expect our gap growth margin in the range of 47.9% to 49.8%. We project our non-gap growth margin will be approximately 65%. We project our gap operating expenses to be in the range of 630 to 640 million. we anticipate our non-GAAP operating expenses to be in the range of 390 to 395 million, which include approximately 15 million of OPEX for the acquired Innovium business for the full quarter. This outlook also reflects the increase in investment to support the accelerated revenue growth we are driving across the business, including the launch of multiple new projects tied to the design wins we have discussed in prior quarters. In addition, we're including a higher amount of bonus crew given our strong operating performance well above our plan. As a reminder, looking ahead to the first fiscal quarter of 2023, due to the typical seasonality in payroll taxes, our OPEX tend to increase from Q4 of fiscal year by high single digits sequentially on a percentage basis. We expect non-GAAP tax rate of 5%. We expect our basic weighted average share outstanding will be $844 million, and our diluted weighted average share outstanding will be $861 million. As a result, we anticipate GAAP earnings per share in the range of loss of $0.03 per share on the low end to an income of $0.04 per dialogue share on the high end. We expect non-GAAP income per dialogue share in the range of $0.48 plus or minus $0.03. Now, let me now close with some directional comments on our investment plan for the next fiscal year. As Matt mentioned earlier, we see continued strong demand across our end markets and improvement in supply to drive our top-line revenue growth about 30 percent in fiscal 2023. To support both near-term and long-term revenue growth, we are planning to increase our investment levels appropriately. Annualize the middle point of our OPEC guidance for Q4 of fiscal 2022, which include both infine and for the full period. implies a $1.57 billion baseline OPEX run rate. From this baseline, we are planning for OPEX to grow in a high single digit on a percentage basis in fiscal 2023, substantially lower than our top-line revenue growth. We are increasing our spending to execute on significant design wins and continue to drive process technology leadership, as well as aggressive pursue a growing funnel of new design opportunities within the large 30 billion SEM we discussed at our invite today. We are confident we'll continue to drive strong and sustainable long-term revenue growth and deliver earnings expansion much faster than revenue growth in fiscal 2023 and beyond. Operator, please open line and announce Q&A instructions. Thank you.
spk04: We will now begin the question and answer session. To ask a question, you may press star then 1 on your touchtone phone. If you're using a speakerphone, please pick up your handset before pressing the keys. To withdraw your question, please press star then 2. In the interest of time, please restrict yourself to one question only. And if you have additional questions, please rejoin the queue. At this time, we'll pause momentarily to assemble our roster. And our first question will come from Blaine Curtis with Barclays. Please go ahead.
spk12: Hey, good afternoon and great results. Maybe just a question. I know you're going to get a bunch on supply, but obviously that seems like the biggest swing factor into the upside. So talk about that and maybe also just address the enterprise segment because I think that was your biggest beat and you were thinking it would be down. So just refresh my memory in terms of why you thought it would be down and maybe just a perspective on you know, just supply in general. You say that you're signing long-term agreements. You know, at what point do you think you'll kind of get out from under this supply constraint?
spk10: Yeah, thanks, Blaine. And what I would lead off by saying is I think the two questions you asked are interrelated, meaning the enterprise strength we saw was really as a result of a pretty big catch-up in supply. So on the topic of supply, you know, we're really pleased with the progress We, like a lot of other companies, have been challenged to meet this unprecedented demand. And I'm very proud to say that our team has responded really well. And so a couple of factors. One is we've driven pretty big transformation in our operations group. Part of that was signing long-term supply agreements. I'd say... Equally meaningful, though, was the strategic nature in which we've really engaged over the last nine months with our supply chain. Our partners understand our opportunity as well as anybody now, and they're really betting on us, and they're betting on Marvell. That's helped a lot. And it's just been strong execution by the team. And so when you add it all up, really what's happened, Blaine, is the demand has continued to be very, very strong, and that's continued even until now, it's really been a story of supply catching up. And what I would note is supply has caught up a lot, obviously, but to be honest, we still aren't really making a dent yet in the unfulfilled backlog that's out there. So it's a two-edged sword. On the one hand, it's great. We're getting more supply. On the other hand, demand continues to be very strong, and we see that going into next year. But certainly, we'll take the win in Q3 and also the Q4 guide relative to the great job our team has done. And enterprise, as we noted the last time, we had a very nice Q2 on enterprise. And we were able to actually do just, again, the team's done a great job to get the supply wind up to meet the strong demand. And then if you actually look into Q4, you've got enterprise up again. And really, the year-over-year story is what's, I think, most impressive. I mean, we're talking about 60% year-over-year growth projected in our enterprise segment. Almost all of that is organic plane. And that will continue to grow next year. Thanks. Appreciate it. Thanks.
spk04: The next question will come from Ross Seymour with Dolce Bank. Please go ahead.
spk02: Thanks for letting me ask a question. Matt, I wanted to dive a little bit into – guidance you gave for fiscal 23. That was a little more detailed than I had expected, and it seems like you're exceedingly confident about the revenue growth side of it. So can you just talk a little bit more detail on, it looks like about $5.6 billion in revenue, given the math that you said. If we took the Inovium side out, because we all have a decent idea of what's happening there, can you just talk about what the biggest drivers are? of that growth is going to be year over year? And has something happened that's increased your confidence and your ability to deliver that, whether it be the supply side coming or if you're just willing to talk more about design wins that you have kind of dropped breadcrumbs to us about over the last few calls?
spk10: Sure. I think there's a few factors, Ross. The first is, you know, we did lay out our strategic narrative at the investor day. So that was one setup we tried to give investors relative to where the business was heading. Second is when we look into next year, we certainly see the demand strength continuing really across all segments. So that gives us a lot of confidence. That's data center, that's 5G, that's automotive, it's also enterprise and consumer. Those are backed up with purchase orders that are in place today. So the backlog we have is very strong. And I think the other point is we really wanted, and I really wanted to contextualize the growth that we're seeing in Q3 and Q4 on an organic basis with Marvell growing 30, you know, Infi growing 30-ish and that effectively continuing so that the investment community understood that this wasn't a short-term bump, but rather part of a longer period of sustained growth, which we believe actually had legs even beyond next year. And then the simple math, and I'll let Gene chime in, but basically what we said is, you know, just take the pro forma 4.4 billion-ish we'll do this year if you take our Q4 guide. You know, we believe we'll grow that 30% next year. And then on top of that, you would add an ovium. So I think your number would be actually a little bit higher when we look out to next year.
spk02: Great.
spk04: Thank you. Yep. The next question will come from Vivek Araya with Bank of America. Please go ahead.
spk08: Thanks for taking my question, and congratulations on the very strong growth and the execution. I actually wanted to talk about the OPEX side. If I look in the last year, you've basically added almost $500 million in sales, and OPEX has just grown about $100 million. And then I look at the guidance you're providing for next year also that also suggests very strong leverage in the model and EBIT margins that can get into the high 30s. So I'm curious, Matt or Gene, what's helping drive that leverage? How are you adding almost a billion and a half plus in sales while keeping OPEX at these levels? How sustainable is this trajectory of expanding margins?
spk10: Sure, maybe I'll start. Actually, why don't you start, Jean? Go ahead.
spk01: Yeah, I'll start. So if you look at our investment level, as we discussed during the Investor Day, we have a strong leverage because not only our central engineering team really leverage across all the different end markets, we also focus on the cloud-optimized market. Silicon Solutions and work with customers. So we do partner with customers to get customer funding too. Overall, if you look at the R&D investment we have been doing, plus the NRE we get from customers actually is significantly larger. So I would say our team significantly leveraged the investment across all different advanced process nodes and also across different end markets. That helps us tremendously. And if you look at the OPEX increase, of course, we acquired both Infi and Innovium. Year over year, it actually, you know, it's going to get to almost $1.7 billion. That's very much within the target model we are focusing on as our long-term business model. So it's the leverage that helps us tremendously.
spk10: Yeah, I think that was well said by Gene. Thank you.
spk04: The next question will come from Timothy Akuri with UBS. Please go ahead.
spk14: Thanks. Gene, inventory was up about $100 million if I exclude Inovium and, you know, you did talk a lot about this being WIP and the fact that you're taking WIP up given how much you think you can grow. But I guess the question is really on, you know, your visibility on revenue. And, you know, I guess I'm surprised you were able to build that much inventory. And, you know, maybe you can talk about whether delinquencies got any better. Thank you.
spk01: Yeah, actually, you know, we have improved the supply significantly. However, demand continues to outpace the supply. So we have not made a stand on the delinquency we have as a company. As Matt discussed earlier, If you look at fiscal 23, we see strong demand, significant revenue ramp across all our end market with our unique product cycles. So 30%, over 30% year-over-year growth, literally, you know, as a matter of fact, if we look into Q1 sequentially, seasonally, it will be down quarter, but for the Coming Q1 fiscal 23, we actually see sequentially revenue increase approaching mid-single digit on the basis of a very strong guide for Q4. So the inventory build, primarily, they are all work-in-process inventory to support not only Q1 revenue growth and beyond the Q1 for the sequential quarter-over-quarter increase in the next year to support the over 30% top-line revenue growth.
spk14: Thank you, Gene.
spk04: The next question will come from John Pitzer with Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.
spk05: Yeah, good afternoon, guys. Congratulations, and thanks for letting me ask the question. Matt, one of the key strengths of your business is that the design cycles for a lot of your products are fairly long and fairly visible. And I would argue that the revenue growth that you have confidence in next year, notwithstanding some of the supply constraints, was based upon design wins that you've had for a while. I'm just kind of curious, can you talk about the design pipeline and the momentum in the design pipeline today and how you expect it to progress through next year? And my guess is it's going to continue to be strong, if not accelerate. And if that's the case, not wanting to get too far out in front of you, the long-term growth rate you put out in the analyst day, why wouldn't that just move up structurally higher? I know it's less than a quarter since you did that, but if you could give us some of the sense of how you're feeling around the design pipeline.
spk10: Yeah, John, that's a great question. I think the way I would answer it is you are correct in that the design cycles for our products are quite long, actually, but they also come with very long visibility as well. So the revenue that we've got for next year, those designs are done. I mean, they've been done for, in some cases, for a year, as an example, like an automotive. So Then you've got to go back a couple of years and say, well, what did the design win funnel and pipeline enclosure rate look like, say, two years ago or three years ago? And then what is that translating to? What I would comment on is our design win funnel and close rate in the last three years has gone up dramatically each year. And this current year we're on track for our sales team is on track for a beyond record design win capture. So the design wins are growing each year. That is a great leading indicator for us, for sure. And I think to your other question about the long-term, look, we did our analyst day. We put out a long-term model. There will be ups and downs if you take a long-term view. But I think what we're saying is at least in the short term, IEQ 3Q4, also FY23, and we believe even beyond that, we can run, you know, above that model. And we're very bullish on our business.
spk05: Perfect. Thanks, guys. Congratulations.
spk04: Yep. The next question will come from Tor Vander with Stifel. Please go ahead.
spk00: Yes, thank you. And let me echo your congratulations. I had a question on 5G. You're expecting 30% sequential growth in the January quarter. Could you just elaborate a little bit on what's driving that? I do know you have some new customer design wins that are ramping and content growth. But especially as we're thinking from a sort of regional deployment perspective, any more calls you could share with us would be great. Thank you.
spk10: Sure, Tori. To your point, yeah, we had last quarter said and signaled that we anticipated a step up. from Q3 to Q4 in our 5G business. Now we've quantified it, which we see it growing 30% sequential. So great step up, great validation of the thesis in that business. And what's exciting, I guess, is it's primarily driven by new product ramps at some of the key customers, particularly in the baseband area. And then also geographies, ex-China, deploying 5G. And we see that growing pretty strongly throughout FY23, our 5G business, as we're highly diversified both by customer, by geographies that those customers service, and then by the content which we have, most of which is still in front of us. If you think about one of our biggest opportunities is really the the transport processor area where we've won an additional customer we outlined a few years ago, that's going to ramp in 2023 calendar. So there's a nice layering effect, Tori, but I would say it's certainly nice to see a one-quarter step up, but we certainly see growth from here. You've got U.S., you've got Europe, and there's a lot of optimism around India as well next year. So I think the geographic mix is in our favor as well. Thank you for the call.
spk04: The next question will come from Harlan Sir with JP Morgan. Please go ahead.
spk03: Good afternoon and congratulations on the strong results and execution. I would assume that 16 nanometer is sort of the workhorse volume technology now. The team's 7 nanometer products are ramping strongly, right? You've got 200 and 400 gig Polaris and Parima PAM4 products. You've got your Canopus 7 nanometer DSP for data center interconnect ramping. And then on top of that, your 5 nanometer pipeline is quite strong. I think you guys said at the analyst day, you have 20 KPOPS over the next 18 months. And I think the team has already been sampling a number of different 5 nanometer products. So when does the team expect 5 nanometer revenues to become a material part? of the revenue mix? Is it calendar year 22? Is it more likely 23? And are the first meaningful five nanometer revenue is going to be more cloud focused or carrier focused?
spk10: Sure, Harlan. Yeah, I think what I frame your question around, you know, the process technology roadmap, where is Marvell today? And you're right, some of those examples are spot on relative to some of the optical components, et cetera. But we've got a diversity of process technologies that we use Some of those came from different acquisitions, but you're in the ballpark. I think where it leads to is really 5 nanometer, where in the case of the kind of classic Marvell business, we effectively skipped 7, right? So there was a big investment in 5. That is going to be led by Carrier in 5G. That's where the initial ramps will occur. Those products are getting ready to go to production, so we'll see revenue in calendar 22 on 5 nanometer. for our Octeon products, but that's the initial ramp phase. It'll really kick in more in 23 and 24, and then you'll see some of the DPU products and then a whole host of other 5 nanometer products really hit the market kind of in that 22, 23 timeframe. Effectively, the entire company roadmap has converged on this five platform from storage to networking to, you know, even the in-five business is going to move there and take advantage. And so a little bit pursuant to Vivek's question earlier, we get tremendous leverage out of this process and technology platform that we put together that we actually articulated even a couple of years ago at our 2020 investor day. And that's really paying dividends relative to managing the optics efficiently and being able to tape out a significant number of designs in 5 nanometer that are going to last for a very, very long time. But certainly, it'll be 5G first, then carrier, and then you're going to see all the other markets, enterprise, automotive, optical, you name it. So this has got a lot of legs behind it. Great. Thanks for the insights.
spk04: You're welcome. The next question will come from CJ Muse with Evercore.
spk06: Please go ahead. Yeah, good afternoon. Thank you for taking the question. I guess I wanted to clarify on the supply side and then ask the question on auto. So on the supply side, you know, as you indicated in terms of, you know, roughly 5.9 plus billion for fiscal 23, are you saying that you secured that and then some or can you give us, you know, some clarity there? And then, you know, your commentary on the auto compute side, very intriguing. We'd love to hear more, Matt, in terms of how we should think about the timing of sort of initial design wins and when that should start to materially hit the model. Thank you.
spk10: Sure. Yeah, on the first question on supply, yeah, we feel good about that range we gave for next year. Certainly, there's still a lot of moving pieces, and we've got a lot of execution in front of us. This is not a layup. Things have not eased up. It's not like all of a sudden supply has loosened, and What I would say is that the growth next year really just comprehends kind of keeping up with demand. There's still going to be some unsupported backlog probably that we can't quite get to. So we're working on that as a potential as well. But we certainly feel good about the 30% growth and that growth rate continuing, which is really where we were in Q3. That's where we're going to be in Q4. And what we're saying is we anticipate we can keep growing our revenues at that rate when you look out to next year. But obviously we're going to try to do even better. On the automotive compute side, yeah, it's pretty new. It's a little bit like some of our other markets where we gave some initial indications as we were gaining traction and then the story evolves from there. But yeah, I'd say we're well underway on our first design and the level of activity going on with the automotive OEMs around this topic is kind of off the charts at this point. I think there's such a, it's almost like a, there was a renaissance, CJ, I think in what I would call the infotainment age when automotive OEMs really embraced these consumer technologies and all of a sudden you got things like USB chargers in your car, you got state-of-the-art audio, you got touchscreens, all this consumer tech went in. That had a big benefit to semiconductor companies What we've been saying for a while and it's coming true now is that the data-centric semiconductor products and IPs will be the next wave of growth. We're seeing that in our networking products now, but it's very much moving to a compute-centric discussion. And there's a whole bunch of ways to skin that cat, but our model will be unique in that we're approaching it very similarly, CJ, to what we do in the cloud market, which is coming in with a broad IP portfolio, partnership-oriented model, build what somebody wants, let them put their stamp on it if they want to, and really customize and optimize for their particular system and use case, and bring all the goodness of all the Marvell IPs with it. So it's pretty interesting discussions. There'll be more to come there, but we think this is going to be a very large, long-term opportunity for the company.
spk06: Very helpful.
spk04: Thank you. The next question will come from Mark Lepaxis with Jefferies. Please go ahead.
spk09: Hi. Thanks for taking my question. Matt, if I think about the kind of portfolio of assets that you kind of pulled together here, I think about, you know, you have interconnect capabilities within FI, processing capabilities with Cavium, networking capabilities. from Inovium and native Marvell. And I'm wondering, to what extent, as your customers are coming to you for semi-custom solutions, are they asking you to deliver solutions to them that are a mix of two or more of those kind of different capabilities? That would be the question for your customers as well as how you're thinking about delivering a complete optimized computing solution on the merchant side. Maybe as part of that, as you have embraced this semi-custom model, can you share with us your view? What does Marvell look like? Pick the time, three, five, ten years down the line. What is What is a merchant model versus a semi-custom model? How do your revenues split along those dimensions? Thank you.
spk10: Sure. Yeah, Mark, I think you highlighted it well. There's a pretty incredible set of assets inside the company now that I would argue is very unique in terms of all of these being under one roof. I would actually add there's even more. I think you gave three great examples. I would say our security, IP, storage, and I.O., And you're absolutely right. When we engage in our various business models, whether it's a full custom design or a semi-custom partnership design with a mix of IP from the customer and ours, every one of those IPs gets put on the table. And we gave an example actually in the prepared remarks about the storage accelerator opportunity where It's not just a storage product. It's got CPUs. It's got security. And it's got some pretty advanced network interfaces, especially when you talk about things like going from NVMe to Ethernet, as an example. So very unique, and it's part of our value prop, and the fact also that we can do this under one roof. And despite the fact that a lot of these IPs we have or these people we have came from other companies, it's a one Marvell culture in our company. And so when we go and engage, this doesn't look like 12 business units or, oh, there's the Cavium team. I don't know. Somebody has to go work with them. And there's the Inovium team. There's one integrated go-to-market strategy and technology platform. And it's very powerful. And I think it's going to become even more and more relevant. And I would say we don't really think about our business, Mark, at this point between pure merchant, pure semi-custom, pure custom. I mean, there's all these different business models in between. And even our merchant products, what we're finding, like let me give you an example in storage, we end up doing a fair degree, for example, on our high-end data center class SSD controllers now, we're doing a fair amount of customization, particularly on the firmware and the software, as an example, for each individual customer. That makes it very, very sticky. And occasionally we'll spin a metal option off and we'll give them a certain feature that they want or need. But yeah, in a way, a lot of our business already today is effectively customized in the standpoint that we've really optimized it for the application. And that could be in the hardware or it could be in the software and the firmware. So I think that those lines are fairly blurred now is what I would say, Mark. And I think it's good. I think it enables us to stay flexible. And it's enabling us to win, you know, new accounts. Great call. Thanks, Matt.
spk04: The next question will come from Sereni Pejori with SMBC NICO Securities. Please go ahead.
spk07: Thank you, Matt. A couple of clarifications, actually. First, on the, you know, pricing, I think you mentioned you've implemented some pricing actions to offset the higher input costs. I'm just curious where we are in that process and how broadly you're implementing those and to what extent that might be helping the top line as we go into next year. And then the second part of the question is obviously very strong outlook for next year. I'm just curious, given your breadth of products and the and markets that you participate in, I'm guessing there's probably not going to be much seasonality, but I'd love to hear your thoughts on first half versus second half in terms of how you view the top line playing out next year. Thank you.
spk10: Sure. How about this? I'll take the first one, and then I'll let Gene talk about the second one. Yeah, so on the first one, so let me take you back on pricing. It was about this time a year ago that when I got a call from our ops team that said, we have some serious issues because we're getting a number of price cost increases from a whole bunch of our different suppliers overseas, and what are we going to do? And this is like, what? And I spent the month of December negotiating higher cost increases by my supply chain a year ago, and we then worked and managed to pass those through earlier than the year. Each time we've secured additional capacities, Srini, we end up, in a lot of cases, having to bear a higher input cost. That's been part of the drill as supply has come available. And so I would say that this has been a gradual process. It's gone on throughout the year. It continues to go on. I think there continues to be inflation in the supply chain. And our philosophy has been to be real fair about that, be very partner-oriented, not take advantage of it. And so while it has flowed through the top line throughout the year, the biggest benefit of the growth we're seeing is just the raw demand, the design wins, the value that we're capturing, and certainly there's a slight tailwind on the top line, but it's almost all from demand. And we certainly see that trend continuing through next year. Jean, do you want to cover the view of 23?
spk01: Yeah, to just follow what Matt just said, right, next year we see strong demand across all our end markets. Frankly, it's a supply constraint. You know, when we talk about over 30% revenue growth, that's a supply-constrained outlook, what we're looking at. So the normal seasonality trend Definitely does not apply here. We see Q1 sequentially on a very strong Q4 base to increase, you know, approaching mid-single digit. And after Q1, we will see continuous sequential increase. Supply dynamics is certainly something our team will continue to drive. But absolutely, if we have more supply, we definitely have more demand. We can ship more products to customers. So you should expect we see sequential increase each quarter for the rest of the next year.
spk07: Thanks, Jane. Very helpful. And congrats again.
spk04: Thanks. The next question will come from Christopher Rowland with Susquehanna. Please go ahead.
spk15: Hey, guys. Thank you for the question. Fantastic update and quarter. I was going to dig in on the hyperscale custom silicon side as well. Maybe if you guys could talk about, in terms of your outlook, your big outlook there, how many of, let's say, the top seven big hyperscalers are you guys engaging? And it was kind of touched on, but, you know, storage versus networking and optics, where are you guys getting the most interest? I think you kind of covered that, but And then finally, this is probably too much to ask for, but in the past we've had some NREs associated with these hyperscalers. Are those NREs still coming in, or are you guys on your own?
spk10: Sure. I think on the first question, I would say we're engaged broadly. The opportunity and the activity, though, is broad. primarily centered around the big four in the U.S. That's where the technology leadership is. That's where the thought leadership is. And I think that's where the biggest drivers of our growth are going to come from. I think a lot of the others will follow. And so I think there's leverage we're going to be able to get from that. But we're very well engaged across the board. And when we say custom, you're right. It's certainly, you know, custom compute silicon for different types of workloads and applications, but also storage, networking, optics. It's quite a broad range of technologies that we engage with and security as well. On the NRE front, that continues to be healthy, and that's not just a hyperscale story. That's really broad-based across all of our businesses. And we get actually really good visibility because when we – start developing these products, custom, semi-custom, whatever the model is, there's a development agreement that comes with that. They're milestone-based. A customer wants to have teeth. They want to have skin in the game. So do we. So that's typically where the NRE then gets mapped out over a fairly long period in some cases. So we have a nice roadmap and a view, and Gene's team actually does a great job of being able to forecast the NRE and manage it. And it continues to grow. That's part of the leverage that we're getting into next year is the OPEX is going to grow, but also the NRE is going to grow. So that's enabling us to... We get kind of a double whammy, right? Because while we're growing our OPEX and we're hiring people and we're staffing up, we're growing the NRE as well. And so think of that as this incremental spend we've got that's not completely visible, but yet contains very... important engineering resource and r d resource that gets deployed towards high roi projects that spit out you know several years later and so it's a really i think it's a virtuous cycle and our our team's done a really good job of of managing that as part of the business model uh i would i've been on the final kind of example on the automotive compute um Design, when we talked about it, is heavily funded by NRE. And again, that's a multi-year project. And it's so critical. I mean, you basically can't build the car without it. So you've got to imagine it's going to be really important to have a real significant contract around that and for us to have a significant co-funding to make it happen. So it's a pretty important part of the business model, Chris, and it continues to be healthy. Thanks.
spk15: That's a great update, Matt. Thanks.
spk10: Yeah.
spk04: The next question will come from Quinn Dalton with Needham. Please go ahead.
spk16: Thanks for squeezing me in. Hey, Matt, you gave us a great outlook through fiscal 23, but as you looked out beyond fiscal 23, I think you mentioned you see another big step up in the 5G business at Nokia as the 5 nanometer platform starts to ramp. And I'm just wondering... Can you give us a sense, is that step up really more about capturing even greater content on your current share of base stations to that customer, or do you think your 5 nanometer platform is allowing you to grab greater share at that customer as the 5 nanometer platforms ramp? Thank you.
spk10: Okay, let me give you a broader answer, and then I'll dive into the 5G. So just as you think about the growth from fiscal 23 next year to fiscal 24, the biggest overall growth actually in StepUp is in the cloud. And you remember, Quinn, at the investor day, we outlined this sort of very strong design win activity we had, which was going to result in the $400 million incremental revenue in fiscal 24 from cloud and then going to doubling again the year after. So that, when you think of the step-up, that's where that's coming from. 5G is also kind of right behind, and that's going to be very strong as well. And to your point, one of our key partners and customers there is Nokia, as you mentioned. That, in 5 nanometers, where we not only support them on their ambitions around baseband, but also on the CPU side and transport processing side. And so that's going to be That is content gain. That is new for us. That starts at that time. That's all been planned. That's all kind of going well and tracking to what we thought, but I thought it was important to note the timing around that and highlight that we have more legs even in 5G beyond next year because that will just really be the first full year of production there. Actually, we won't even peak for years after. Yeah. Really strong outlook on cloud and 5G in fiscal 24 and beyond. And, of course, you've got the automotive story layering in, and all that drives a lot of goodness in the model. Great.
spk04: Thank you. The next question will come from Tushaya Hari with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
spk13: Thank you for squeezing me in and congratulations on the very strong results. Matt, I wanted to ask about the enterprise networking business. You talked a little bit about your share growth in Ethernet, I believe. I was hoping you could elaborate on that a little bit, what's driving the success, and if you can speak to sustainability there. And then as my second part, again, sticking to enterprise networking, I think all of us appreciate the secular nature of of your business in data center and 5G and auto and industrial. I guess enterprise networking is perhaps, at least on a relative basis, a little bit more cyclical in nature. With the business growing kind of in the 50% to 60% range year over year, how should we think about sustainability of growth as we transition into 2022? Thank you.
spk10: Sure. Yeah, so maybe I'll answer it in two pieces. The first is you're probably asking is, well, what happened? Why? How did you? How did you guys do this? And I think if you look back, we've had a commitment to enterprise from day one when I became CEO. We never milked the cow. We never took this market for granted. And most of this growth, as you noted, is organic Marvell. So this comes from our Ethernet switch team, which really focused on leadership products, latest process node, very strong software capability from our switch business unit, and a real focus on the enterprise market in new products and new product development, product definition. So that had a huge benefit that started three or four years ago, and now those designs are ramping. The second is in our Ethernet PHY transceiver business, we've also moved that from being a technology lagger to a technology leader in Ethernet PHYs. And we also did an acquisition of Aquantia, which was a relatively small company when we bought it. But when we put the two teams together, the combined share that we've been able to drive has been very significant. And the roadmap, we were able to accelerate dramatically. That's one of our product areas, as an example, that we're driving to 5 nanometer. And then that has all kinds of integration opportunities. So customers like the roadmap. They like the team. They like the story. and that's now showing up, and certainly the enterprise market's not growing at 50% a year, so you have to draw your conclusion. There's been certainly a share shift as customers have adopted our solutions, and we do believe that this business is going to continue to grow. It'll grow next year. It may not grow on the annualized basis at 50% because you're going to start laughing at some point, and we're coming off a relatively low point from last year, but also remember our content has gone up on each of these generations. As multi-gig Ethernet becomes much more prevalent, and especially as enterprises are spending again and implementing Wi-Fi 6, which requires high-speed wired Ethernet connections at multi-gigabit, we're seeing switch ports go up on multi-gig, which has our PHYs attached to it plus our switches. So there's also a content story here, Toshi. So I wouldn't exactly say, well, enterprise is like a low single-digit grower, and eventually we'll trend back there. I think between product leadership, share gain, and then content increase, enterprise can continue to be a winning business for Marvell.
spk04: Very helpful. Thank you.
spk10: Congrats again.
spk04: Yep. This concludes our question and answer session as well as our conference call for today. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.
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