Nature's Sunshine Products, Inc.

Q4 2023 Earnings Conference Call

3/12/2024

speaker
Operator
Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for participating in today's conference call to discuss Nature's Sunshine Financial Results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2023. Joining us today are Nature's Sunshine CEO, Terrence Moorhead, CFO, Shane Jones, and General Counsel, Nate Brower. Following their remarks, we'll open the call for analyst questions. Before we go further, I would like to turn the call over to Mr. Brower as he reads the company's safe harbor statement within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 that provides important cautions regarding forward-looking statements. Nate, please go ahead.
speaker
Brower
Thank you. Good afternoon, and thanks for joining our conference call to discuss our fourth quarter and full year 2023 financial results. I'd like to remind everyone that this call is available for replay via telephonic dial-in through March 26 and via a live webcast that will be posted in the investor relations portion of our website at ir.naturesunshine.com. The information on this call contains forward-looking statements. These statements are often characterized by terminologies such as believe, hope, may, anticipate, expect, will, and other similar expressions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance, and the actual results may be materially different from the results implied by forward-looking statements. Factors that could cause results to differ materially from those implied herein include, but are not limited to, those factors disclosed in the company's annual report on Form 10-K under the caption risk factors and other reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The information on this call speaks only as of today's date, and the company disclaims any duty to update the information provided herein. Now, I would like to turn the call over to the CEO of Nature Sunshine, Terrance Moorhead. Terrance?
speaker
Morehead
Thank you, Nate, and good afternoon, everyone. I want to thank you for joining today's call to discuss our fourth quarter and full year results. Today I'll provide some context for our performance, which has been fueled by the continued execution of our global strategies. I'll also share some insights on how we believe the business is progressing as we move into 2024. From there, Shane will take you through the specifics of our financials in more detail. Starting with our full year results, we reported net sales of $445 million making 2023 one of the strongest sales years in our company's history. When you adjust for the impact of foreign exchange, our 2023 sales were $453 million, up 7% versus 2022. This is a tremendous accomplishment given the backdrop of geopolitical unrest in Europe, elevated inflation, high interest rates, and lagging consumer confidence. These results demonstrate that our high-quality products, strong field activation, and omnichannel approach can drive strong financial performance even during periods of economic uncertainty and social unrest. 2023 was also the first year to benefit from our gross margin improvement initiatives. You'll remember that we committed to delivering $10 million of gross savings by focusing on several areas. First, reducing the cost of our ingredients, packaging, and formulations while maintaining quality and performance. Second, improving efficiency and reducing waste from our manufacturing processes. And third, reducing costs related to logistics and transportation. I'm pleased to say that we've made excellent progress on these initiatives in 2023 as gross margins increased 110 basis points to 72.1%. Moving forward, we expect to meet or exceed our $10 million savings plan with quarterly fluctuations in gross margins throughout 2024 due to mix and seasonal promotions. Our 2023 gross margin performance, along with our top line momentum, aided our adjusted EBITDA growth for the year, which was up 26% versus 2022 to $40.4 million. The strong momentum in our business was also apparent in our fourth quarter results, where we reported net sales of $108 million when excluding the impact of foreign exchange, which was a 6% year-over-year increase. This was led by 13% growth in North America, followed by 7% growth in Asia Pacific on a constant dollar basis. The strong sales performance helped drive a 21% increase in adjusted EBITDA to $9.7 million. A closer look at our fourth quarter results shows a meaningful breakthrough in North America, where sales were up 13% due to our strategic investment in digital and improved activation with our nutritional health practitioners and specialty retailers. For the quarter, digital sales increased 97%, driven by new customer growth that was up 27% and incremental Amazon sales. The strong launch of our new Powerline products also helped drive new customer growth, as the introduction of our Power Greens, Power Beats, and Power Meal products helped improve activation and drive orders across all channels. In 2024, we will build on this momentum by further expanding our digital footprint and increasing the performance of our nutritional health practitioners and specialty retailers. In Asia Pacific, sales were up 7%, primarily driven by Taiwan and Japan. Our investment in field activation continued to pay dividends in Taiwan, driving 49% order growth for the quarter. We saw a similar story in Japan with solid execution of field fundamentals and a continued focus on driving customers to our subscribe and thrive auto ship program that represents about 50% of sales. To support field activation in Japan, we will continue to make strategic investments in the market with plans to open a new training facility that will double capacity and allow the team to support continued growth. Another strong contributor to the fourth quarter was China that delivered an 8% sales increase on a local currency basis. Our digital live streaming model continued to attract new customers and drive strong order growth and we will continue to invest in this innovative and powerful digital approach. Overall, we continue to be very positive on the long-term prospects of our business in China, but are cautious in the short term, given the economic conditions. In Europe, sales were down 8%, primarily due to the prolonged war and the toll that it's taking on Eastern European markets and the surrounding area. our team has done an excellent job attracting new customers and driving orders in Central Europe, and we continue to see a positive consumer response to our products and remain steadfast in our commitment to invest in field activation, improve sales tools, and expand our geographic footprint in Central European markets in an effort to continue to capture the untapped potential these markets offer. In summary, our fourth quarter and full year 2023 results demonstrate the strong underlying fundamentals of our business, and we're very pleased with our performance and excited about our plans for 2024. Once again, I would like to leave you with the following thoughts. First, our business continues to outperform the market with sales growth driven by strategic investments in digital, field activation, and brand building initiatives. Working in combination, These investments have allowed us to attract and retain more new customers, drive order growth, and build momentum in the market, significantly outpacing market growth. Second, our gross margin savings initiatives are on track to deliver the $10 million of gross savings we discussed. The team has verified the savings, and we've already started to see the benefits of our plans as gross margin improved in 2023. Over the coming year, we expect to see continued progress. Third and finally, we've built a strong financial position with a strong balance sheet and strong positive cash flow that will allow us to continue to invest in our growth strategies as we move forward. We're still operating in a challenging external environment, but our team is focused, they continue to execute our strategies well, and we expect to take this positive momentum through 2024 and beyond. With that, I'd like to turn the call over to our Chief Financial Officer, Shane Jones. Shane?
speaker
Shane Jones
Thank you, Terrence. We continue to be excited about the positive momentum that we're seeing in North America and Asia Pacific, resulting in another strong quarter and full year. Net sales in the fourth quarter were $108.9 million, compared to $102.7 million in the year-ago quarter, representing a 6% increase versus prior year. This was driven by 13% growth in North America and 6% growth in Asia Pacific. Consolidated net sales for full year 2023 finished at $445.3 million compared to $421.9 million in the previous year, representing 6% growth or 7% growth excluding the $7.5 million headwind from foreign exchange rates. Looking at sales by market in Q4, North America's sales grew 13% versus last year. The double-digit growth in North America's sales was a result of strong growth from both our digital business and our core business of practitioners and retailers. As Terrence mentioned, in Q4, our digital business was up 97% with new customer growth of 27%. For full year 2023, North America sales increased 5% to $139.8 million, driven by a 58% increase in digital. Asia Pacific also saw continued growth with sales increasing 6% or 7% on a local currency basis. This was driven by local currency growth in Taiwan, Japan, and China, of 21%, 9%, and 8%, respectively. This above-market growth was driven by our continued emphasis on field energy, along with the healthy increases in customers and transactions. Full-year 2023 sales in Asia Pacific were $201.3 million, representing growth of 8% or 13%, excluding the impact of foreign exchange. Sales in Europe during Q4 decreased 5% or 8% on a local currency basis. This is reflective of the continued impact of the war, as well as macroeconomic challenges that are pressuring consumer spending and demand, especially in Eastern Europe. Net sales in Europe for the full year 2023 increased 3% or 1% on a local currency basis to $81.1 million. In Latin America, our continued focus on field energy, sales tools, and business fundamentals is generating customer growth and activation. However, the sales impact of those efforts remains muted as sales increased only 5% or 1% on a currency neutral basis. Full year sales in Latin America were $21.8 million, a 3% increase versus prior year, or 1%, excluding the impact of foreign exchange. Gross margin in the fourth quarter decreased 30 basis points year-over-year to 71.9%. This modest decrease was the result of our cost-saving initiatives being offset by increased promotional activity during targeted windows, such as Cyber 5, inflationary pressures, and market mix. The market mix impact was due to stronger growth in North America, where gross margins are lower, but contribution margin is higher than other regions. As Terrance mentioned, for the year, our gross margins improved 110 basis points for $4.9 million versus prior year, driven primarily by our savings initiatives previously outlined. We are encouraged by the progress that we're seeing against these initiatives and reiterate our commitment to reach at least $10 million of savings. Volume incentives as a percentage of net sales were 30.1 percent compared to 30.3 percent in the year-ago quarter. The slight decrease was primarily due to the changes in market and channel mix. Selling, general, and administrative expenses during the fourth quarter were $39.9 million compared to $38.8 million in the year-ago quarter. This slight increase on a dollar basis was driven by increased incentive compensation, variable costs related to sales growth, and investments to drive digital growth. As a percentage of net sales, SG&A improved 120 basis points to 36.6 percent for the fourth quarter of 2023. Operating income increased to 5.7 million dollars or 5.2 percent of net sales compared to 4.2 million dollars or 4.1 percent of net sales in the prior year. GAAP net income attributable to common shareholders for the fourth quarter was 9 million dollars or 46 cents per diluted share as compared to $2 million or 10 cents per diluted share in the year-ago quarter. The higher GAAP net income was primarily the result of strong sales growth and operating income improvement in the quarter, as well as favorable changes in our valuation allowances related to foreign tax credits compared to the fourth quarter of last year. Adjusted EBITDA, as defined in our earnings release, increased 21% to $9.7 million compared to $6.1 million in the fourth quarter of 2022. The strong growth in EBITDA was attributable to our sales growth along with leverage on SG&A. For full year 2023, adjusted EBITDA was $40.4 million, 26% higher than prior year driven by sales growth and improved gross margin. Our balance sheet remains strong with cash and cash equivalents of $82.4 million and no outstanding debt. Operating cash flow less capital expenditures for 2023 produced $31 million in free cash flow compared to negative free cash flow of $8 million in 2022. As part of our capital allocation plan, we continue to utilize our share repurchase authorization. buying 424,000 shares during 2023 for $6.4 million, or an average of $15.09 per share. As of December 31st, 2023, $17.6 million remains of our $30 million share repurchase program. Looking beyond share repurchases, our healthy capital allocation structure positions us well to continue our digital transformation and other strategic initiatives. Now, I would like to introduce our 2024 outlook. We're very excited about both the immediate and long-term growth prospects of the business and remain committed to driving improved efficiency and profitability. Therefore, we are providing full-year 2024 net sales guidance of $455 to $480 million. Please note, This includes an estimated 100 basis point headwind to growth due to foreign exchange. As such, our guidance equates to constant currency growth of 3% to 9%. In addition, we expect adjusted EBITDA to range between $42 and $48 million. Overall, we are very excited about the progress made in 2023 and continue to focus on driving strong execution against our digital and other key strategic initiatives. As we do so, we are confident that we will continue the strong momentum established in 2023 in driving outside shareholder returns in 2024 and beyond. Now I will turn the time back to the operator.
speaker
Operator
Thank you, sir. Apologies. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now conduct the question and answer session. If you have a question, please press star followed by the number one on your telephone keypad. And if you wish to cancel your request, please press star two. And your first question comes from Linda Bolton Weiser from Davidson. Your line is now open.
speaker
Linda Bolton Weiser
Yes. Hello.
speaker
Linda
So I was wondering about in the quarter, in the fourth quarter, what would you say, was there any particular regions that came in a fair amount better than what you expected and then anything that was softer than expected, just a little color would be helpful?
speaker
Morehead
Shane, you want to start with that?
speaker
Shane Jones
Yeah, absolutely. Linda, first of all, let's start with North America. We have very strong growth, as you see, in North America, double-digit growth there. And as we reflected, that's really our digital growth was very, very strong, 97% there, driven by both customer count increase and a healthy increase from our Amazon business. And then, in addition, our core business there performed very well as well. So very pleased with what we're seeing at the momentum there, a lot of good things happening there. As far as areas where we're not quite as good as we would have hoped, if you look at Europe, there continue to be struggles with Europe, and they continue to work through a lot of those issues that are there. But nonetheless, both economic as well as other issues in that area are putting a cap on our ability to grow in the short term there.
speaker
Linda
And with regard to Europe, is there any way to break down the performance a little bit, roughly tell us how Eastern Europe was versus Western Europe in the quarter?
speaker
Morehead
Yeah, just hold on a second.
speaker
Shane Jones
Yeah, so in... As we look at the total European business, as you know that on a, I'll just talk local currency basis, it was down 8%. If we look at Eastern Europe, Eastern Europe is down 10%, and then Western Europe down 13%, and Central Europe up slightly.
speaker
Linda Bolton Weiser
Okay.
speaker
Morehead
Again, a fair amount of the pressure that we're seeing in Eastern Europe is just related to exchange rates there and the value of the dollar negatively impacting people's ability to buy right now. So once we get some stability there, again, we expect those markets to start to stabilize for us and move in the right direction.
speaker
Linda
And at this point, are you booking any revenue in Russia or Ukraine, or is that pretty much zero at this point?
speaker
Shane Jones
We continue to have revenue in both those locations at this point in time.
speaker
Linda
Is there any way to quantify that?
speaker
Shane Jones
We aren't disclosing the specifics of those at this point, but I will tell you that the Ukraine business has stabilized and is actually growing slightly. It's really the Russian business that's Yeah, Ukraine is up significantly. It was up double digits.
speaker
Morehead
Actually, Ukraine was up double digits versus prior year. So we continue to drive business through our Ukrainian team. They're on the ground building customer growth, still servicing orders. So they're actually doing quite a good job. We've got some nice stability there. So most of the downward pressure would be driven by the ruble and kind of further Eastern European markets.
speaker
Linda
Okay. And then your North American performance was pretty encouraging. Would you say it's sustainable or was it a little bit, is it going to be lumpier based on the new product launches that you've had that drove that growth? Or maybe you could just give a little more color.
speaker
Morehead
I think it was a bit kind of all in for us. Again, digital was clicking. The new product launches of the power line were very strong, one of our strongest launches. It was certainly within the last decade. And then the tremendous response and activation that we saw with our practitioners, especially retailers, was good also. So we believe we'll have continued strength in digital. Our goal is to continue to stabilize our kind of a core business with the practitioners and retailers and build on the power line sales going forward. We don't want to have a launch them and leave them type of strategy. That's one of our key master brands. So we're going to be supporting that one and building our footprint around the power line going forward. So we do expect to see continued strength in North America. You've heard Shane and myself talk about how North America has turned a corner, and we really don't want to look back. But I don't necessarily expect to see double-digit growth every quarter from North America, but we do expect to see continued strength, especially driven by our digital business, which continues to drive new customer growth and order activation.
speaker
Linda
And what percentage of North America is digital sales now?
speaker
Morehead
I'm saying about 25%. About 25%.
speaker
Shane Jones
Yeah.
speaker
Linda
Okay. And then you mentioned maybe some variability in gross margin by quarter in 2024. Depending on a couple of things, I guess promotional cadence maybe is one. Is there any color you could give to help in modeling how that will go through the year?
speaker
Morehead
Shane, you want to take that one?
speaker
Shane Jones
Yeah, so as Terrence mentioned, there's going to be some variability there. In other words, it's not going to be a stair step up. EVERY SINGLE QUARTER, JUST RATABLY IN A STRAIGHT LINE. PART OF THAT IS BECAUSE OF PROMOTIONALITY. PART OF THAT IS JUST AS WE'RE WORKING THROUGH OLD INVENTORY, THE COST SAVINGS AND THINGS THAT WE'RE DOING ARE COMING THROUGH IN DIFFERENT AMOUNTS. AND THEN ON TOP OF THAT, YOU'VE GOT THE YEAR-OVER-YEAR AMOUNTS THAT YOU'RE GOING OVER AS WELL. SO WHAT WE WOULD SAY IS, AS YOU LOOK THROUGH THE YEAR AS A WHOLE, WE ARE VERY COMMITTED TO GETTING TO THE NUMBERS THAT WE'VE TALKED ABOUT. that won't necessarily mean that it'll be exactly by quarter to get to that.
speaker
Linda
Sorry, but yes, but you did say that gross margins should be up for the full year in 2024?
speaker
Shane Jones
Absolutely. Absolutely. We were up 110 basis points last year. Clearly, to get to our $10 million, we'll need a very good year again this year as well. And the other thing to realize, Linda, is if you think about our promotionality, there's definitely seasonality to that. For instance, the Cyber 5 period in Q4. Obviously, that's a more promotional period. That's something that we started for the first time this year. We were actually involved in the Cyber 5 period. We hadn't done that before for the first time. Very successful for us, by the way. But that has some impact on gross margin. And then likewise, in Q1, there is a little bit more, not as much necessarily as Q4, but there is a little bit more promotionality there as well. And then Q2 and Q3, less so.
speaker
Linda
Okay, thanks. That's very helpful. And then maybe you could give a little more color on what you're seeing in Asia, and in particular, I think you said, what was it, a new training center in Japan? maybe like what you think that will do in terms of helping to drive performance there.
speaker
Morehead
Yeah. So if I start with Japan, the team's done a great job there, uh, driving people into the business, getting them into subscribe and thrive. So, you know, roughly 70% of the people that join us go right into a subscribe and thrive auto ship, uh, that, that kind of nets out to right now, about 50% of, of sales. So I think we've got a great engine of driving customer growth. The new, you know, kind of training center, it's going to double their capacity. It's just a new facility to train staff, to train people. And it'll just allow us to put kind of more people through the system. So I think that somewhat speaks for itself. We're doing more, I'll call it field activation, up front kind of, building the team in Korea to get our Korean business back on its feet and back on track. Taiwan continues to be a powerhouse, so we expect to see continued strength in Taiwan. And as I said, China, we're just keeping our eye on China. I think we had a great run in 2023. There's a fair amount of uncertainty around the economy in China going forward, so I think we should expect to see maybe some lumpy performance in China, but still very good outlook overall for the business there on an ongoing basis. Does that help you?
speaker
Linda
Yes. Yes, thank you. Good. And then finally, the last thing I wanted to ask about was – the long-term you used to have some longer-term multi-year sort of EBITDA margin target target type of objective see is that something you are still thinking about and like what kind of numbers are you talking about getting to eventually on your margin profile
speaker
Morehead
Yeah, I don't think our outlook on that has changed. Shane, you want to provide some more color around that?
speaker
Shane Jones
Absolutely. As we've talked about, there are several things that will help us to continue to enhance our margins, our gross margins. Sorry, our EBITDA margins. As we get our gross margins improved and a lot of the initiatives that we're doing, we've committed to $10 million or more to be able to drive that out over the longer term. There's probably even more than that. So that will enhance that as well as just as we leverage the SG&A that we have and even just from a mixed perspective as we mix to channels that are more profitable. All of those things over time should help us go from the EBITDA margins that we have today to at least mid-double digits and probably closer to high double digits. Yeah, exactly.
speaker
Linda
Okay, that's it for me. Thank you.
speaker
Morehead
Great. Thanks, Linda.
speaker
Operator
At this time, this concludes our question and answer session. I would now like to turn the call over back to Mr. Morehead for closing remarks.
speaker
Morehead
Okay, thank you. And we'd like to thank everybody for listening to today's call. We look forward to speaking with you when we report our first quarter 2024 results in May of 2024. So thanks again for joining us and take care. Have a great evening.
speaker
Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference. You may now disconnect. Thank you for
Disclaimer

This conference call transcript was computer generated and almost certianly contains errors. This transcript is provided for information purposes only.EarningsCall, LLC makes no representation about the accuracy of the aforementioned transcript, and you are cautioned not to place undue reliance on the information provided by the transcript.

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