Neuropace, Inc.

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Hi, my name is Jake Mnookian. I'm the US Head of Investment Strategy for JPMorgan. Welcome to our Outlook 2025 webcast. As we close out 2024 and look ahead to the new year, we're excited to share insights and ideas that we think can help you navigate the evolving investment landscape. This year's Outlook is called Building on Strength. It is designed to help you build on the tremendous momentum we have seen in markets through 2023 and 2024. We believe that 2025 presents a unique opportunity to capitalize on this strength, but it's crucial to consider how these insights align with your individual goals and investment plans. Our discussion today is structured around five key themes that we believe will define markets and the economy in 2025. Within these themes, we've identified 25 specific ideas, concepts, and insights, our 25 for 25, that we think will empower you to make informed decisions in the coming year. I'll be joined by five colleagues who will help me dive into each theme, explore the key takeaways, and identify the considerations that may help you build a resilient portfolio that is aligned to you and your family's goals. Thank you for joining us. Let's dive in and explore what 2025 could have in store. All right, let's kick things off. Our chief investment strategist, Tom Kennedy, is here to talk about easing global policy and what it might mean for our outlook. Tom, thanks for joining us. Excited to be here. So Tom, the way we think about it, you know, one of the key pillars of our outlook is that all three kind of major economic blocks are easing in some way. The Fed cutting cycle is finally underway. The European Central Bank is lowering interest rates. And Chinese policymakers have finally gotten more serious about putting a floor under growth. So from your seat, how do you see this global easing cycle playing out?

Taking that a little bit step further there, Jake, 37 central banks that we follow, the vast majority of them are cutting rates. Really powerful environment for a global backdrop for growth. But the key word that's really consistent across all of these economies is this word normalizing. Historically, we think of rate cutting cycles as being emergencies. That's really not what we see is happening this go around. The normalization is important because it helps secure the soft landing, but not cut rates too much as to reignite inflation again. So this dynamic that's happening is quite unique relative to history. Let's take the Fed for an example, Jake. Core inflation has fallen by three percentage points in the U.S. Outside of wartime, that's never happened in America without a recession. So really powerful, really dynamic time to be thinking about the world. It's unique for us. It's also unique for central bankers.