4/27/2021

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Good morning, and welcome to Packer's first quarter 2021 earnings conference call. All lines will be in the listen-only mode until the question and answer session. Today's call is being recorded, and if anyone has an objection, they should disconnect at this time. I would now like to introduce Mr. Ken Hastings, Packer's Director of Investor Relations. Mr. Hastings, please go ahead.

speaker
Ken Hastings
Director of Investor Relations

Good morning. We would like to welcome those listening by phone and those on the webcast. My name is Ken Hastings, PACR's Director of Investor Relations, and joining me this morning are Preston Fite, Chief Executive Officer, Harry Skippers, President and Chief Financial Officer, and Michael Barkley, Senior Vice President and Controller. As with prior conference calls, we ask that any members of the media on the line participate in a listen-only mode. Certain information presented today will be forward-looking and involve risks and uncertainties, including general economic and competitive conditions that may affect expected results. For additional information, please see our SEC filings and the investor relations page of PACCAR.com. I would now like to introduce Preston Fite.

speaker
Preston Fite
Chief Executive Officer

Good morning. Harry Skippers, Michael Barkley, and I will update you on our very good first quarter results and business highlights. First, my sincere appreciation to PACCAR's employees around the world. for their dedication, hard work, and upbeat spirit. Throughout the past year's challenges, they have delivered outstanding trucks and services that provide essential goods to our communities. Now, as the world moves forward, we have many reasons to be optimistic. In the first quarter, PACCAR achieved very good revenues and net income. PACCAR's first quarter sales and financial services revenues increased 13% to $5.85 billion. And first quarter net income increased 31% to $470 million. Packard Parts increased its first quarter revenues to a record $1.16 billion. And parts pre-tax profits were a record $251 million, 17% higher than the same period last year. Truck and parts gross margins increased from 12.6% to 13.4% in the first quarter. And Packard Financial had a great quarter. delivering excellent portfolio performance and achieving pre-tax income of $76 million. PACCAR is having a tremendous year of new product introductions. In February, Peterbilt and Kenworth launched beautiful new heavy-duty truck models. The new Peterbilt Model 579 and next-generation Kenworth T680 feature enhanced aerodynamics and powertrains that deliver up to 7% higher fuel efficiency. They feature new LED headlights, new advanced driver assistance systems, and a state-of-the-art interior with a 15-inch configurable digital display. Truck owners and drivers will appreciate these and many other features in these great new trucks. In April, Kenworth and Peterbilt introduced a new medium-duty truck lineup. These vehicles have an 8-inch wider cab, lower cab heights, which makes it easier to get into and out of the truck, best-in-class visibility for enhanced safety, and a new premium interior with configurable dash displays. The new medium-duty trucks feature PACCAR's PX7 and PX9 engines and the new PACCAR 8-speed automatic transmission. In April, DOF began producing CF electric trucks, and Peterbilt and Kenworth expect to deliver their first production battery electric vehicles in the coming months. PACCAR has strategic partnerships with two electric vehicle battery providers, CATL and Romeo Power. These two excellent partners provide our customers with the right technology choice for their applications. As the U.S. economy recovers, GDP and industrial production are each projected to expand 6.3% this year. Consumer spending, the housing market, and the automotive sectors have strengthened. Good freight tonnage, high truck utilization, and a shortage of drivers has created strong demand for PACCAR's premium trucks. The 2021 market size will be tempered by the industry-wide undersupply of semiconductors, and we estimate the U.S. and Canada Class VIII market to be in the range of 260,000 to 290,000 trucks. The U.K. and European economies are also expected to grow strongly. Economists project U.K. GDP to increase 4.8% and European GDP to increase 4.2%. The 2021 European truck market is expected to increase to a range of 260,000 to 290,000 trucks. Harry Skippers will now provide an update on Packard Parks, Packard Financial Services, and other business highlights.

speaker
Stephen Fisher
Analyst, UBS

Harry?

speaker
Harry Skippers
President and Chief Financial Officer

Thanks, Preston. Packard delivered 42,200 trucks during the first quarter. This was a 3% increase over fourth quarter production, despite an undersupply of semiconductors. This was enabled by all the efforts of PACCAR's outstanding purchasing and production teams. Truck parts and other gross margins improved to 13.4% in the first quarter. Second quarter production has a higher than normal level of uncertainty. Depending on semiconductor supply, we anticipate second quarter global truck production to be similar to the first quarter. with truck, parts, and other gross margins also at first quarter levels. Packer parts had an outstanding quarter, achieving revenues of $1.16 billion, which is 16% higher than the same period last year. Parts pre-tax profits were a record $251 million. Parts gross margins were a robust 28.2%. Packer Parts benefited from strong freight demand and truck utilization, investments in distribution, initiatives such as TRV All Makes Parts and Stores, and a growing population of connected vehicles with Packer Engines. E-commerce parts sales increased more than 30% in the first quarter compared to the same quarter last year. Parts is a business in which speed of delivery is a major factor in customers' purchasing decisions. Each new distribution center that we open increases sales capacity, parts availability, and delivery speed to customers and dealers. Becker will continue its investment in world-class distribution by opening a new distribution center in Louisville, Kentucky next year. We expect second quarter parts sales to be similar to the strong first quarter, with full-year part sales up 15% to 18% compared to last year. Becker Financial Services benefited in the first quarter from strong new loan and lease business volumes, improved used truck prices, and an excellent portfolio quality. Revenues were $432 million, 13% higher than last year. Pre-tax income was 76 million, 58% higher than last year. The excellent portfolio performance resulted in low past dues of less than half a percent at the end of March. In the first quarter, North American Kenworth and Peterbilt used truck pricing increased by 30% compared to a year ago. Kenworth and Peterbilt truck resale values continue to command a premium over the competition. Becker Financial has been increasing its retail used truck center capacity and now has 12 facilities worldwide. Selling used trucks at retail has resulted in higher prices and margins. Becker Financial plans to open another used truck retail center in Madrid, Spain later this year. Becker has invested $7.3 billion in new and expanded facilities, innovative products, and new technologies during the past decade. Capital expenditures are projected to be $575 to $625 million, and research and development expenses are estimated to be $350 to $375 million this year. Becker is investing in many exciting projects. These include next-generation truck models, zero emissions and ultra-clean diesel powertrains, advanced driver assistance and autonomous driving systems, connected vehicle services, and enhanced production and distribution facilities. We thank our excellent, independent Kenworth, Peterbilt and DAF dealers for their support to our customers. Kenworth, Peterbilt and DAF dealers are well capitalized and have invested $1.7 billion in their businesses in the last five years. These investments make a significant contribution to PACCAR's strict market share and support the growth of PACCAR parts and PACCAR financial services. Thank you. We'd be pleased to answer your questions.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

At this time, if you would like to ask a question, please press star and then the number one on your telephone keypad. Our first question comes from Stephen Fisher with UBS. Your line is open.

speaker
Stephen Fisher
Analyst, UBS

Great, thanks. Good morning, guys. Just looking back historically, the deliveries in Q2 tend to be higher than Q1. So just on your flat delivery expectations, are you anticipating kind of shutdowns already? And maybe what's the risk that you can see that delivery number go to the upside for the quarter?

speaker
Preston Fite
Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, Steve, good question. It's something that we're all looking at, obviously. You think about the way the industry is working right now, there is an undersupply of semiconductors globally. That does affect the truck industry as well. It was why we delivered 42,000 trucks in the first quarter. I'm so proud of the teams all throughout PACCAR who brought that up from 40,000 to 42,000. So a nice job by all of them was really good work. We do expect that the undersupply will continue in the second quarter. and then begin to improve as we get into the second part of the year. And so that could have some impact on our deliveries as we're in the second quarter, and that's reflected in the flat deliveries for the second quarter.

speaker
Stephen Fisher
Analyst, UBS

Okay. And then I guess you have the same industry retail forecast for U.S., Canada, and Europe. Can you just talk a little bit about the relative confidence you have in each market, any different risks that you see on either side where you might see more upside or more downside risk in either of the markets?

speaker
Preston Fite
Chief Executive Officer

I think both of the markets are performing really well. Our customers are doing well. The economy is doing well. Utilization is high. Freight tonnage is good. Spot rates are up. So I think we see a good economy. There's strong order intake. We've had 42% of the orders in the first quarter for Kenworth and Peterbilt in North America, so great order intake. We have a strong percentage of the backlog. like 32% of the backlog, and so our confidence is pretty good that the industry will be able to have the demand for the products, and probably build will be constrained by the supply as we look at the year.

speaker
Stephen Fisher
Analyst, UBS

Okay, thank you.

speaker
Preston Fite
Chief Executive Officer

You bet. Have a great day.

speaker
Stephen Fisher
Analyst, UBS

You too.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Our next question comes from Jerry Revich with Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.

speaker
Jerry Revich
Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Yes, hi. Good morning, everyone. Morning, Jerry. I'm wondering if you could talk about on the new flagship truck products that you're introducing here. Typically, you folks see assembly efficiency gains when you have new product rollouts. I'm wondering if you could just quantify what the increase in automation here is with the new models, and also is there an increase in terms of proprietary parts content on these trucks versus the prior models that you might be willing to quantify for us?

speaker
Preston Fite
Chief Executive Officer

Thanks for the question, Jerry. I mean, we are really excited about this year in terms of product launches. I can't remember a year where we've had quite so many new product introductions. New T680 and Model 579 are one beautiful, but from a performance standpoint, up to 7% fuel efficiency is going to mean a lot to our customers. So that's going to be good for the business as well. The medium-duty product is a brand-new cab, entire new platform. It's a fantastic truck, both for Class 5, 6, and 7 markets for Peterbilt and Kenworth. And there is a higher degree of automation in the product, so it has more robotic assembly, which is good for us, good for quality, and good for our customers. And there is more proprietary part count in the medium-duty and heavy-duty trucks as well. So that's all really good things for, I think, everyone.

speaker
Jerry Revich
Analyst, Goldman Sachs

And Preston, any chance you might be willing to quantify those two pieces? You know, how much are labor hours per truck expected to be down in And, you know, what's the magnitude of increase in proprietary parts? Would you be willing to flesh that out for us?

speaker
Preston Fite
Chief Executive Officer

I can't really flesh that out for you in simple. Maybe if we were together we could spend some time thinking about it, but I think it's more complicated than a simple answer, Jerry.

speaker
Jerry Revich
Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Okay. I appreciate that. And then nice to see the momentum on e-commerce. Can you just frame for us what's e-commerce revenue share of your part's business today, and is it more profitable than conventional orders? Can you talk about that, please?

speaker
Preston Fite
Chief Executive Officer

You know, the biggest thing with e-commerce is really that the world is changing, as we all know and have experienced, especially in the past year. And we have a great new e-commerce system in place, which makes it very easy for people to order parts, find like parts in models or even for other OEs parts. You can do that in your handheld device. You can do it in your laptop. And so the system is fantastic and that's what's causing the growth and the up to 30% increase we've seen in e-commerce sales. So we just see that as a foundation to what we're doing and it is continuing to grow as part of the business. And we think, you know, it's just, it's a convenience and a strength for the parts business in general.

speaker
Jerry Revich
Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Okay. And lastly, I'm wondering if you could talk about as you look at your supply base, what's the critical count of suppliers that you're monitoring where We might see the issues that we're seeing on the microchip side. In other words, how concerning is the broader supply chain picture outside of the semiconductor shortage that we're obviously experiencing?

speaker
Preston Fite
Chief Executive Officer

Well, I'd start by saying we have a great set of supply base partners for us around the world. They do an amazing job of trying to supply PACCAR and supplying PACCAR. This specific issue, semiconductors, comes back to just a handful of And so it's in that handful that we have our concentration, and they're located around the world. And we're working closely with our first-tier suppliers and our second-tier suppliers on this and looking for ways to solve the problems. And we've come up with some good solutions, and we keep working for the future to get it all put behind us.

speaker
Jerry Revich
Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Okay. Terrific. I appreciate the discussion. Thank you.

speaker
Preston Fite
Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, you bet. Take care.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Our next question comes from Ann Dagen with J.P. Morgan. Your line is open.

speaker
Ann Dagen
Analyst, J.P. Morgan

Yeah, good morning, everybody. Can you talk a little bit – it looked like your deliveries were up quarter over quarter in the U.S., Canada, versus down quarter over quarter in Europe. Can you just talk about the supply chain issues in both regions? It does seem like it's more exacerbated in Europe. Is that what you're seeing also? And then beyond semiconductor chips, can you talk about input costs and pricing power, whether – higher steel prices. I know you're more of an assembler, et cetera, et cetera. But, you know, if current input costs prevail, how much pricing power do you have given where your backlog is and where your share of orders are? I know there's a lot embedded in there. Sorry. That's great.

speaker
Preston Fite
Chief Executive Officer

To begin with, on your EU North America question on the semiconductors, I would say that there isn't really any differentiation. This all kind of can come back to You know, there's really just a handful of suppliers that make wafers, and then those translate out into another handful of suppliers who make semiconductors, and those are distributed globally for all industries, obviously. I know you're really well aware of how the auto and truck industry both are using those components and are affected by it, and we don't see differentiation between the EU and North America. It's really about which chipset is used in whichever vehicle, and that's ubiquitous across markets. From a cost standpoint, that second part of your question, Certainly, there's raw materials impacts in cost recently, whether that's steel or aluminum. That's also true on resins, as we saw in the first quarter, which affect plastics. There is good backlog across PACCAR and the industry, and so we do start to see pricing advantage in that, and we think that it's kind of balanced well right now.

speaker
Ann Dagen
Analyst, J.P. Morgan

So your backlog does include some price increases to offset higher input costs. Is that how I should interpret that answer?

speaker
Preston Fite
Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, you should. That's a good interpretation.

speaker
Ann Dagen
Analyst, J.P. Morgan

Okay. I'll leave it there since my questions were long-winded. Thank you.

speaker
Preston Fite
Chief Executive Officer

Take care, Ann.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Our next question comes from David Russell with Evercore ISI. Your line is now open.

speaker
David Russell
Analyst, Evercore ISI

Hi. Thank you for the time. Hey, David. Hey, good morning. Good morning. The scenario that you lay out for the year and the industry sales, you're willing to increase your outlook. But where do you see, just trying to think about 22 a little bit, the setup, where do you see year-end inventory versus however you want to define it, historical norms and so forth? And then second part is the inability to ship as many trucks as you would like or the industry would like. How'd that play into the stronger parts outlook? Because obviously you've you raise that parts outlook fairly. Thank you.

speaker
Preston Fite
Chief Executive Officer

You bet, David. From an inventory standpoint, as we think about it, inventory is relatively tight right now. The industry is at 1.9 months. We're at 1.7. I wouldn't expect to see a lot of change in that through the year, given the demand that's out there for product. So I think we would enter 2022 in kind of a similar fashion. As I mentioned earlier, there's a strong economy, there's strong truck markets and working with our customers they have they have the desire for our great trucks that we just have introduced so we see that carrying through i think because there is limitations in build in the first half of the year it's rational to think that there is you know a lift in parts just because people are running their trucks for longer periods of time and that's advantageous to us and i also think that it has to do with the great systems the team has built i mean i Probably can't overstate how strong a job our team has done putting in distribution centers that are close to our dealers, making it easy for people to get parts the same day, building this e-commerce system, introducing TRP parts in stores, which serves the all-make market very well. All those factors are important in the performance of the record-setting performance our parts team delivered.

speaker
David Russell
Analyst, Evercore ISI

And for some quantification of your answer, for the 1.7 months that PACCAR is at for their inventory, and let's say that remains throughout the year until year end, how would you quantify that versus, quote, normal or your desired levels? And if you can sort of quantify the parts revenue increase, how much was that interplay from less new sales?

speaker
Preston Fite
Chief Executive Officer

Let me take your second part first and say I think the biggest percentage of the parts performance is the team and the business of parts and our dealers and relationships with our customers. I think that's overwhelming. I couldn't quantify it beneath that. And then from your first part of your question on inventory, I think that inventory is less than normal. But, you know, it's not an order of magnitude less. It's just less. So it's probably a fair enough way to characterize it, David. All right. Thank you.

speaker
David Russell
Analyst, Evercore ISI

You bet.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Our next question comes from Nicole DeBlaze with Deutsche Bank. Your line is open.

speaker
Nicole DeBlaze
Analyst, Deutsche Bank

Yeah, thanks. Hi, guys.

speaker
Preston Fite
Chief Executive Officer

Hello, Nicole.

speaker
Nicole DeBlaze
Analyst, Deutsche Bank

I'm on the second quarter production out. I presume that you're kind of assuming that each geography is flattish from a production perspective, queue on queue. Is that the right way to frame it?

speaker
Preston Fite
Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, that's probably fair to look at it. It will depend a lot on where we – if we have spot shortages of parts, that would have some impact. But for your generalization, yeah, I agree with you.

speaker
Nicole DeBlaze
Analyst, Deutsche Bank

Okay, got it. And then, you know, you said on the 13.5% gross margin in 2Q makes it flattish from production. But as we move into the second half and some of these supply chain issues abate and hopefully production is able to step up again with a strong backlog, how do you guys think about the ability to improve gross margins as we move into the second half?

speaker
Preston Fite
Chief Executive Officer

Sure. I'll ask you – I'll take the second part of your question. We had some cutting out on the first part of your question, if you can ask that again after we go through this one. But as we begin with, as we look at the margin performance, we're really pleased with the year-over-year growth and the sequential growth that we experience in gross margins. The teams are doing a good job on that. We think as the situation gets resolved in supply bases and gets ameliorated in the second half of the year, then we will see improvements in margin. We have build capacity, and we think that they'll be just instructional for all of us to think of margins improving in the second half. And then if you could help me back with the first part of your question.

speaker
Nicole DeBlaze
Analyst, Deutsche Bank

No, you actually captured the whole spirit of it, so we're going to go ahead and pass it on. Thank you.

speaker
Preston Fite
Chief Executive Officer

Wonderful. Have a good day.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Our next question comes from Joel Tiss with BMO. Your line is open.

speaker
Joel Tiss
Analyst, BMO Capital Markets

Hey, guys. How's it going? Good, Joel. How are you doing? All right. So I wonder, can we just talk a little bit about sort of shape of cycle? Can the industry meet these zero emission mandates by 2024 and 2025? without kind of over the road with just doing refuse and port trucks and things like that? Can you help us understand how the cycle looks?

speaker
Preston Fite
Chief Executive Officer

Well, I think there's two questions in there. One is the shape of a cycle, and then one is electrification strategy. I'd say where we're at in the performance of the truck market is I think we're just at the beginning of a really nice, steady growth in the truck market. Things are going well. Our business is doing well. Customers are doing well. And just to complement that, and a very important complement to that is these great new trucks we're introducing. The new medium-duty and the new heavy-duty trucks are going to be fantastic for our customers. So I think that's going to help PACCAR in the coming months and years, actually. So I would say that's an important story. And the second part of your question was around electrification, and I would say that There, we have great products. We outlined a little bit of that in our earnings release. I'll share with you that our thoughts are is we have partnerships with CATL, and we have partnerships with Romeo Power in battery pack production, cell production for us, which gives us an array of different technologies we can put into battery electric vehicles. That's important because that enables us to meet different applications for customers. Some people will use a truck for eight hours a day and then park it overnight and can charge it overnight. Others will want multiple charge cycles in a day. That requires different battery types, so we have that capability built into our systems, which will give us a strong product offering. That product offering will enable us to meet the demands of California, the 15 states, or anything else, whether it's port, dredge, medium-duty, or heavy-duty trucks.

speaker
Matt Alcott
Analyst, Cowen & Co.

Okay, great.

speaker
Preston Fite
Chief Executive Officer

Thank you. Great. Have a good day.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Our next question is from Robert Wertheimer with Mellius Research. Your line is open.

speaker
Robert Wertheimer
Analyst, Mellius Research

Hi, thank you. Good morning, everyone.

speaker
Preston Fite
Chief Executive Officer

Good morning.

speaker
Robert Wertheimer
Analyst, Mellius Research

I had two questions. One's just a simple one. You probably saw a Scandinavian competitor reported pretty good orders in Europe, and obviously COVID and inventories, there's a lot of disruption going on. Just wonder if you could characterize, does Europe feel like there is real and profound underlying strength in the orders, to the extent you're willing to comment?

speaker
Preston Fite
Chief Executive Officer

Sure. I think that we do deal with real and underlying strength in the orders. We work closely with our customers and our dealers. These are personal relationships, and we know them all, and we pay close attention to what their needs are. So, yeah, we definitely have a clear eye on their needs and the backlog.

speaker
Robert Wertheimer
Analyst, Mellius Research

Perfect. So it's not just a catch-up order. Okay, perfect. The second question is a little bit more profound, and I'm not sure how far you're going to be willing to go on it, but You saw too simple, you know, kind of threw out a revenue, you know, revenue share or cents per mile kind of idea on autonomous. You guys are obviously working with folks on autonomous. And I wonder if you'll characterize what the potential revenue streams for PACCAR are as the years go by. I assume there's higher content per vehicle, you know, maybe at a decent margin. Maybe there's some autonomous revenues that you can get shared or service revenues or whatever. Just wondering about if you could give us any update on the strategy there and the timeline, the potential in terms of revenue for Packard. Thank you.

speaker
Preston Fite
Chief Executive Officer

Sure. On the strategy standpoint, we have a great partnership with Aurora. They're really strong to work with, and we're enjoying that early on. Our teams are together all the time. Our leadership teams are together talking about how we're going to develop these vehicles, and they're very complicated vehicles. We all understand that. We also continue to have good partnerships with the other startups in the Valley and others that are using our trucks and working with us on developing autonomous platforms. So our strategy is to work with the best of the best and to contribute an autonomous vehicle platform, which has a lot of technology in it, and then we would provide that to the market space, and that market space would be able to end up relying eventually on PACCAR's product lines and autonomous vehicle platforms in partnership with the autonomous driver to help our customers out. We think it's really going to work well. As far as predicting revenue streams, I feel like it's a little bit early for that. I feel like there's a lot of development work. There's a lot of regulation, societal work that needs to be taken care of first, and I think we should let that sort itself out before making projections that are sure to be wildly wrong at this point.

speaker
Robert Wertheimer
Analyst, Mellius Research

Understandable. Okay, thank you.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Our next question comes from Jamie Cook with Credit Suisse. Your line is now open.

speaker
Jamie Cook
Analyst, Credit Suisse

Hi, good morning. I guess just two follow-up questions. You know, one, I think last quarter when you talked about costs associated with COVID, you were embedding sort of 40 bps of margin headwind in your numbers. Is that sort of tracking where you thought or what are the expectations for the rest of the year? And then just to follow up on, you know, Rob's questions on the orders, you know, with Peterbilt and Kenworth, I think you said you're 42% of the order book. Just trying to understand what you know, how sustainable that is? Is it just the new products or what's driving that market share growth? And are you concerned at all that there's, you know, double ordering in the order book, just given, you know, the market's concern about supply chain?

speaker
Harry Skippers
President and Chief Financial Officer

Thanks. Yeah, on the COVID cost side, Jamie, I think those costs as a percentage have definitely come down over the quarter, and we expect those costs to continue to come down. We do see some more expense last quarter and probably also in the second quarter associated with the undersupply of certain components and the inefficiency that those cause. And then going forward, we'll also have some startup costs for the new products, but those new products will definitely generate stronger margins for us going forward.

speaker
Jamie Cook
Analyst, Credit Suisse

Okay, that's helpful. And then just the orders, the sustainability of it, and just, you know, concerned if there's any sort of double ordering just because of the concerns on supply chain.

speaker
Preston Fite
Chief Executive Officer

No, I think we kind of tried to talk about that. I think we feel like we know the customers well, work with them, and feel like the order board is solid. I mean, this is good backlog. I mean, we have confidence in it.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Okay, thank you.

speaker
Preston Fite
Chief Executive Officer

You bet.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Our next question comes from Chad Dillard with Bernstein. Your line is open.

speaker
Chad Dillard
Analyst, Bernstein

Hi. Good morning, everyone. Good morning, Chad. So can you talk about your price cost assumptions as you go through the year? Maybe you can compare, you know, first half versus second half and how you're thinking about that.

speaker
Preston Fite
Chief Executive Officer

So I think if you just think about it, I mean, we mentioned that we're starting to see price realization that's occurring, and we would expect that to continue through the year, and that's generally how we think about it.

speaker
Chad Dillard
Analyst, Bernstein

All right. And then can you talk about just like your EV order book today, how far does it stretch? And just remind us when you think you're going to hit high volume production in that product line.

speaker
Preston Fite
Chief Executive Officer

I think that for us right now, it's simply about getting the right semiconductor supply in the second quarter. And as that stabilizes, we'll see builds increase. And that's how we're thinking about it. Good order book. Good backlog, great production teams doing a good job, able to reach production in the first quarter over the fourth, and we think that that's kind of the trend for the year.

speaker
Chad Dillard
Analyst, Bernstein

Got it. Thank you.

speaker
Preston Fite
Chief Executive Officer

You bet.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Our next question comes from Ross Goularty with Bank of America. Your line is open.

speaker
Preston Fite
Chief Executive Officer

Hey, good morning, guys. How are you doing?

speaker
Ross Goularty
Analyst, Bank of America

Great, thank you. Just a couple of questions. Just on the semiconductors, Preston, what gives you confidence that they will, in fact, be more readily available in the third quarter? I mean, a lot of the recent news flow seems to suggest that the tightness could be longer lasting than previously assumed. I mean, are you actually seeing or hearing anything that supports the view that they're going to become more readily available in the second half than they are in terms of general procurement practices today? You know, do you see yourselves entering into more long-term supply agreements for semiconductors or any of your other critical inputs just to cope with this, you know, what seems to be some real widespread tightness across any number of different components?

speaker
Preston Fite
Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, I think when I look at it, if I think about the third quarter in our confidence recovery, you'd have to put in to construct the fact that, you know, there's been a couple – unique circumstances in the first quarter. There was a storm in Texas, which took two plants down in the Austin area. And so that's a big impact. And then there was a fire at a supplier in Japan. That had a big impact. So as those facilities are able to recover, that will certainly be a help. And I think that there's also been a lot of good work by the wafer manufacturers in understanding the need. So those together, along with our supplier's forecasts, gives us confidence that we'll see improvement into the third and fourth quarters. I don't think tightness is going to be eliminated, but I just anticipate that there'll be improvements.

speaker
Harry Skippers
President and Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, what Packer has done really well is that we early on already gave a very reliable future outlook of our needs to our supply base. So that also means that when things start to recover, that we will get priority in those deliveries. That's what we're assuming.

speaker
Preston Fite
Chief Executive Officer

And then, Tim, part of your question, you asked about procurement practices and And Harry just said we do a good job with forecasting. We also do a good job of working with the second-tier suppliers in our needs so that we can have good supply.

speaker
Ross Goularty
Analyst, Bank of America

Okay, got it. And then can you talk a little bit more about this new medium-duty transmission that you discussed? I mean, it sounds like a product you're making in-house versus sourcing externally from the Allisons of the world, but I just wanted to verify that. Is it a fully automatic or an AMT transmission? And just what's the longer-term plan on transmissions? Are you going to insource more of your transmissions, much like you've done with your engines?

speaker
Preston Fite
Chief Executive Officer

Well, we have great partnerships in our transmission suppliers around the world, and this is a fully automatic transmission with a torque converter in it. So that's going to be a great, great help for our customers. It goes up to 1,000 foot-pounds of torque, 380 horsepower, so it fits perfectly into the medium-duty space. It'll give us the aftermarket part stream, That is really advantageous to us, and it allows us to integrate it into the powertrain in a very efficient way to help optimize performance for our customers. So all that together is good for PACCAR and good for our customers.

speaker
Ross Goularty
Analyst, Bank of America

Preston, you're saying you have great partnerships with your suppliers, but are you making this internally or is someone making it for you?

speaker
Preston Fite
Chief Executive Officer

We are partnered with ZF on this.

speaker
Ross Goularty
Analyst, Bank of America

Okay. Got it. Thank you.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Our next question comes from Matt Alcott with Cowens. Your line is open.

speaker
Matt Alcott
Analyst, Cowen & Co.

Good morning. Thank you for taking my question. I know you guys, it's good to hear that the quality of orders seems to be pretty solid here, but I wanted to ask a question from a different angle. From your conversations with customers and dealers, do you have any reason to be concerned that due to the driver shortage, even though demand for equipment is there, you might see some cancellations because of people's inability to see trucks.

speaker
Preston Fite
Chief Executive Officer

I guess you could build that scenario, but no, we don't. Just to be simple with it, we don't see that happening. We see there's strong demand for the trucks. We see there's strong demand for our used trucks as well, which means that there is a need for freight movement, and the economy is doing well, which means people are buying things, and that is likely to continue. So our premium trucks... good used truck business, good order board, all bodes well for a steady good future.

speaker
Matt Alcott
Analyst, Cowen & Co.

That's very helpful. Just one more question on the technology front. You guys have been investing quite a bit in-house and through partnerships in technologies, but given the increasing interest in technology, whether it's autonomy or new energy technologies, would you consider taking another look at your acquisition strategy and maybe consider acquiring companies instead of the, you know, partnership model that you've gone with so far?

speaker
Preston Fite
Chief Executive Officer

We look at all options. We don't have a single threaded strategy. We just take the best approach that we think is going to provide the best returns for our customers and bring the right technologies to bear with the right economies of scale on a global level.

speaker
Matt Alcott
Analyst, Cowen & Co.

Got it. Thank you very much.

speaker
Preston Fite
Chief Executive Officer

You bet.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Our next question comes from Rob Salmon with Wolf Research. Your line is open.

speaker
Rob Salmon
Analyst, Wolfe Research

Hey, good morning, guys, and thanks for taking the question. You bet. With regard to your delivery outlook, obviously there's some supply chain challenges that you talked about earlier. Can you give us a sense of kind of the monthly cadence? Is it pretty similar throughout the second quarter, or are you expecting an uptick kind of later in the quarter just to give us a sense of upside and downside risk?

speaker
Preston Fite
Chief Executive Officer

Rob, I think it's a little hard to characterize that. I think the teams are moving things around and we're talking with suppliers. So as there's parts that come available and they've done a good job of finding parts and we're able to increase the cadence of delivery and other times we've, you know, having to moderate that. And so it's hard to get to in a monthly basis.

speaker
Rob Salmon
Analyst, Wolfe Research

Okay. But it's not outsized way to the second half of the quarter. Is that a fair characterization or?

speaker
Preston Fite
Chief Executive Officer

No, no, it's not. It just depends upon the chip and the supplier and where it sits.

speaker
Rob Salmon
Analyst, Wolfe Research

Okay.

speaker
Preston Fite
Chief Executive Officer

Maybe a way to think about it for you is these things come in batches as they're produced. So you might get a batch of parts, which alleviates the supply constraint. Then you might be tight for a little while somewhere else. So think of it more like that, but it's not a continuous flow.

speaker
Rob Salmon
Analyst, Wolfe Research

Got it. Helpful. So kind of the red tagging effect, if you will, and ability to kind of make up or Accelerate or decelerate, depending on kind of how the supply chain is working. I guess looking out in terms of the – you talked a little bit earlier about kind of some of the new electrification partnerships that you guys have. When I'm thinking about kind of like the early models with regard to electrification, how should I think about the PACCAR kind of proprietary part mix initially, and then how do you see that evolving over time?

speaker
Preston Fite
Chief Executive Officer

question I think it's going to evolve over time to be higher content as we move along as volumes increase and this economies of scale makes sense to do that so we have great partners and that's working really well at the ends we talked previously about hundreds of trucks and there's a thousands of trucks and as it grows then we'll see probably higher prepared content come along with it really appreciate the car thanks guys yeah you bet

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

There are no other questions in queue at this time. Are there any additional remarks from the company?

speaker
Ken Hastings
Director of Investor Relations

We'd like to thank everyone for joining the call, and thank you, Lindsay.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes Packer's earnings call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

Disclaimer

This conference call transcript was computer generated and almost certianly contains errors. This transcript is provided for information purposes only.EarningsCall, LLC makes no representation about the accuracy of the aforementioned transcript, and you are cautioned not to place undue reliance on the information provided by the transcript.

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