1/28/2025

speaker
Operator
Conference Call Moderator

Good morning and welcome to PACAR's fourth quarter 2024 earnings conference call. All lines will be in listen only mode until the question and answer session. Today's call is being recorded and if anyone has any objection, they should disconnect at this time. And I'd like to introduce Mr. Ken Hastings, PACAR's director of investor relations. Mr. Hastings, please go ahead.

speaker
Ken Hastings
Director of Investor Relations

Good morning. We'd like to welcome those listening by phone and those on the webcast. My name is Ken Hastings, PACAR's director of investor relations. And joining me this morning are Preston Fite, chief executive officer, Harry Skippers, president and chief financial officer, and Bryce Poploski, vice president and controller. As with prior conference calls, we ask that any members of the media on the line participate in a listen only mode. Certain information presented today will be forward looking and involve risks and uncertainties that may affect expected results. For additional information, please see our SEC filings at the investor and the investor relations page of PACAR.com. I would now like to introduce Preston Fite. Hey,

speaker
Preston Fite
Chief Executive Officer

good morning, everyone. Harry, Bryce, Ken and I will update you on our fourth quarter full year 2024 results, as well as other business highlights. PACAR's outstanding employees delivered strong results by providing our customers with the highest quality trucks and transportation solutions in the industry. In 2024, PACAR achieved annual revenues of $33.7 billion, net income of $4.2 billion, and an after-tax return on revenues of 12.4%. This is the second highest profit in the company's history and was a great year for PACAR. PACAR's strong financial performance reflects the higher profitability of the results in our parts division and another good year for PACAR financial services. PACAR shareholders and customers benefited from the $8.6 billion invested over the past 10 years in new products, world-class facilities and -the-art technologies. PACAR has achieved 86 consecutive years of net income and has paid a dividend every year since 1941. In 2024, PACAR declared $4.17 per share in dividends, including a year-end dividend of $3 per share. This is a 53% payout of net income and a dividend yield of 4%. PACAR's fourth quarter revenues were $7.9 billion and net income was $872 million. PACAR Parts achieved excellent fourth quarter revenues of $1.6 billion and net pre-tax profits of $428 million. Last year's U.S. and Canadian Class 8 truck retail sales were 268,000 units. Kenworth and Peterbilt's market share increased to a strong 30.7%, up from .5% in the prior year. In the medium-duty market, Kenworth and Peterbilt's excellent new medium-duty truck has created customer value and market share grew from .5% to 18% as they produced a record 21,500 medium-duty trucks. In 2025, the U.S. economy is projected to expand by more than 2%. The vocational truck sector, where Peterbilt and Kenworth are the market leaders, is steady. The -than-truckload market is performing well, while the truckload segment is beginning to show signs of improvement. The U.S. and Canadian Class 8 truck market is forecast to be in a range of 250,000 to 280,000 vehicles. We anticipate a strengthening market as we progress through the year. European above 16-ton truck registrations were 316,000 last year. Customers appreciate DoF's industry-leading fuel efficiency and driver comfort. DoF trucks have a competitive advantage in the European market due to an innovative aerodynamic design and feature the largest and most luxurious cab interior. In 2025, the European economy is forecast to grow modestly. We expect the above 16-ton truck market to be in the range of 270,000 to 300,000 registrations. Last year, the South American above 16-ton market was 119,000 vehicles and is expected to be similar this year. DoF's market share in the important Brazilian market was right around 10% and reflects a 23% production increase to more than 10,000 trucks in 2024. In addition to its successful growing business in Brazil, DoF trucks are now sold in Mexico and in the Andean region of South America. Packard truck parts and other gross margins were a solid .9% in the fourth quarter. These margins are considerably higher than in prior industry cycles, reflecting the increased value that the new Kenworth, Peterbilt and DoF trucks provide to customers, as well as the continued growth of Packard parts. In the fourth quarter, Packard delivered 43,900 trucks and in the first quarter of 2025, deliveries are forecast to be around 40,000. We estimate Packard's worldwide first quarter truck and parts gross margins to be similar to the fourth quarter and in a range of .5% to 16%. In addition to the strong financial performance, other business highlights in 2024 included Packard's progress on Amplify cell technologies, our joint venture to manufacture commercial vehicle batteries in the United States. DoF was honored as the Fleet Truck of the Year in the UK. Packard parts celebrated the 30th anniversary of TRP. Peterbilt earned the Environment and Energy Leader Award for Sustainability and Kenworth celebrated the 50th anniversary of its world-class truck factory in Chillicothe, Ohio. We look forward to an excellent year in 2025 as we celebrate the 120th anniversary of Packard's founding in 1905. Perry Skippers will now provide an update on Packard parts, Packard financial services

speaker
Harry Skippers
President and Chief Financial Officer

and

speaker
Preston Fite
Chief Executive Officer

other business highlights. Perry?

speaker
Harry Skippers
President and Chief Financial Officer

Thank you, Preston. In 2024, Packard parts set new records for revenues and profits. Annual revenues increased by 4% to a record $6.7 billion. And pre-tax profit increased to a record $1.71 billion. Parts gross margins averaged 30.9%. In the current freight environment, we estimate part sales to grow by 2% to 4% this year. Packard parts' excellent long-term growth reflects the benefits of investments that increase vehicle uptime and convenience for customers. Packard's aftermarket parts business provides strong profitability through all phases of the business cycle. Packard parts has expanded to 20 parts distribution centers or PDCs worldwide, including a new PDC in Germany, which opened in November. This PDC enhances parts availability and delivery times to German dealers and customers and is part of a strategy to increase dust truck market share in the largest truck market in Europe. Packard financial services achieved fourth quarter pre-tax income of $104 million. Annual pre-tax income was $436 million. Packard financial is performing well with a portfolio that has excellent credit quality and low past use. Packard financial provides the highest quality service in the market and makes it easy for customers to do business with them through the efficient use of technology in the credit application and loan servicing processes. Packard financial operates 13 used truck centers around the world to support the sale of premium Kenworth, Peterbilt and Dove used trucks and is adding a new used truck center in Warsaw, Poland this year. Last year, Packard invested $796 million in capital projects and $453 million in research and development. Packard delivered an excellent return on invested capital of 25.5%. This year, we are planning capital investments in the range of $700 to $800 million and R&D expenses and a range of $460 to $500 million as we invest in key technology and innovation projects. These include new clean diesel and alternative fuel engines, the next generation of battery electric powertrains, advanced driver assistance systems and integrated connected vehicle services. Packard is expanding manufacturing capacity at our factories in Europe, North America, Brazil and Australia. These investments will support Packard's future growth as well as our customers success. Packard's independent Kenworth, Peterbilt and Dove dealers consistently invest in their businesses, enhancing our industry leading distribution network and making a significant contribution to Packard's long term success. Packard looks forward to another excellent year in 2025. Thank you. We'd be pleased to answer your questions.

speaker
Operator
Conference Call Moderator

Thank you. If you'd like to ask a question, please press star followed by one on your telephone keypad. If you'd like to withdraw your question, please press star followed by two. When preparing to ask you a question, please ensure you're unmuted locally. As a reminder that's star followed by one on your telephone keypad now. Our first question comes from Tommy of JP Morgan. Tammy, your line is open. Please go ahead.

speaker
Tammy
Analyst at JP Morgan

Hey, good morning. Thank you so much for taking my question. So my first question is on the delivery guide. Can you help us understand how to think about deliveries by geography in the first quarter versus the fourth quarter, trying to bridge the gap between the delivery and the delivery. And where that difference is coming from with geography, if you could highlight.

speaker
Preston Fite
Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, happy Tammy. Good to talk to you. What I would share with you is in the US, we expect Class A to be flat or up even a little bit in Q1. But what we've seen is the medium duty market, which has just been very robust is probably normalizing now. So we'll see a bit smaller medium duty market. I'd also remind people that there was a Euro six implementation in Mexico that was in the fourth quarter. So that kind of was there was a bit of a pre buy in Mexico that won't be present in the first quarter. And also, if you're doing comparisons of Q4, Q1, we had good supplier performance in the fourth quarter that allowed our normal year end inventory reduction to take place. So all those things kind of had an impact. And maybe the only last one I'd add is we have fewer production days outside the US, specifically in South America as an impact. So all that goes into that delivery guidance. But in essence, we're seeing flat Class A, maybe slightly up Class A in the US markets.

speaker
Tammy
Analyst at JP Morgan

Got it. That is very helpful color. Thank you. And my second question is on the investment on the investment for amplify the JV you have with comments and Daimler. Do you think you could revisit that? Or the whole idea could be rethought at this point, given the current administration shift away from BEVs?

speaker
Preston Fite
Chief Executive Officer

Well, I share this with you. I am so happy with how that's going. And I think if I could remake the decision now, knowing what I know, I'd make the same decision. It's a long term strategic objective for our company to be able to offer our customers the full portfolio of power train choices. We see that there will be places where battery electric vehicles make sense or could be hybrid vehicles. And our amplify sell technologies. To adventure will allow us to have the lowest cost, highest quality batteries so that will be the most competitive in the market, which will be in support of our customers.

speaker
Tammy
Analyst at JP Morgan

Okay, great. Thank you.

speaker
Preston Fite
Chief Executive Officer

You

speaker
Operator
Conference Call Moderator

bet. Thank you. Our next question comes from Kyle Menjes of Citi. Kyle, your line is open. Please go ahead.

speaker
Kyle Menjes
Analyst at Citi

Thanks, guys. So you so you did reference the vocational strength and it seems like that's been a big piece of why we've seen this order resilience in Class A. But I guess just What gives you confidence that dealers aren't over ordering here to stay in in bodybuilders pipelines? And just, could you maybe give us a gauge of how many of those orders actually have a customer's name attached? Thank you.

speaker
Preston Fite
Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, we have a we have all of our customers there feel really solid. In fact, if you one way to look at it is inventory. So the industry inventory is running what 3.1 months and heavy duty. And Kenworth and Peterbilt inventory levels at 2.3 months. So our inventory is in good shape. There is a backlog at bodybuilders, but those are really spoken for trucks.

speaker
Kyle Menjes
Analyst at Citi

Okay, thank you. And then if you could just provide maybe a little more color on how you're thinking about the medium duty market and us and Canada as we progress through the year you mentioned Probably down a little bit in one queue. But I guess just how are you thinking about the Growth as we move throughout the year. First half or second half would be helpful. Thank you.

speaker
Preston Fite
Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, I think that what we saw kind of referencing back Kyle to last year, you'd say that we had a pretty steady set of builds and in the year they were strong builds. There was, if you recall, a mirror factory fire that amplified some deliveries in the third quarter. So when you're comparing three queue to four queue, you'd see lower deliveries in four queue. And now we just think that the medium duty market is going to go back to more normal historically normal levels and in those normal levels will continue to see our new products perform well. Customers seem quite happy with the new 2.1 meter wide Kenworth and Peterbilt's. They work well with bodybuilders. They're gaining our market share. In fact, we've grown from 14 and a half to 18% share in the medium duty market last year. So if you're good about our position, the cadence of queue of half one to half two probably would expect it also to see strengthening in the second half.

speaker
Operator
Conference Call Moderator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Stephen Volkman of Jeffries. Stephen, your line is open. Please proceed.

speaker
Stephen Volkman
Analyst at Jeffries

Great. Good morning, everybody. Thank you for taking the call. I'm curious as we sort of do the dumb math and look at the total truck revenues divided by the deliveries. It seems like the kind of revenue per truck was down five percent ish, which is one of the bigger declines we've seen recently. And I know there's a lot in there between price and mix and things like that. But I'm curious if you can provide any color. Was that mostly mix? Is there kind of more day cab happening or more vocational? Or how do we think about kind of what's going on in price mix?

speaker
Harry Skippers
President and Chief Financial Officer

Yes, Steve, there's a little bit of mix, regional mix going on. So North America is more vacation or holidays in the fourth quarter. So a little bit stronger mix in Europe. And then on top of that, we had unfavorable foreign exchange rates. So it's a very strong dollar and that probably accounts for half of the reduction in average sales price.

speaker
Stephen Volkman
Analyst at Jeffries

Got it. OK, right. A lot in there. OK. And then slightly differently, have you guys announced or started telling your customers kind of the order of magnitude of the expected price increase for the twenty twenty seven regulations that we're all looking forward to?

speaker
Preston Fite
Chief Executive Officer

You know, we're having general conversations with them about that, and we're still saying it can be the ten fifteen thousand dollar price range for adjustments to twenty twenty seven. Obviously, the details of that aren't finalized, but that's kind of what it feels like right now.

speaker
Steven Fisher
Analyst at UBS

OK,

speaker
Preston Fite
Chief Executive Officer

thank you guys. You bet.

speaker
Operator
Conference Call Moderator

Our next question comes from Rob Wertheimer of Mellius Research. Rob, your line is open. Please go ahead.

speaker
Rob Wertheimer
Analyst at Mellius Research

Thank you. I had two, if I may. First is just I'd love to hear your thoughts on gross margin trend and truck pricing. It seems like the used market to stabilize inventory, at least on sleep versus come down. I don't know if you see that and probably better data that you have. And just curious whether whether you see any any hopefulness or the reverse on new truck pricing. That's my first one.

speaker
Preston Fite
Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, sure. It robbed. What we'd say is that we're looking into Q1 and seem like things should be pretty steady, as you can tell from our guide where we said fifteen and a half to sixteen percent gross margin. So we see that things are starting to look up, but just beginning to, as we notice, the truckload carriers start to come back into the market and then probably gaining strength through the course of the year. And then

speaker
Harry Skippers
President and Chief Financial Officer

then on the use truck side, Rob, I would add that backup financials use truck inventory is at very healthy and low levels right now. So, and so that's that's also a good thing.

speaker
Preston Fite
Chief Executive Officer

That's a good leading indicator as well.

speaker
Rob Wertheimer
Analyst at Mellius Research

For the bottom there. OK, perfect. And then Preston just sparked my curiosity. You mentioned hybrid trucks and I think across the auto and maybe even the truck world years ago, there was a bit of resistance to hybrids and a feeling that you'd go full electric. I'm curious what you're hearing from your customers. Is that something that there's actual demand for now? Are there really use cases that are non regulatory? I'm just curious about your thought there. I'll stop there. Thank you.

speaker
Preston Fite
Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, great question, Rob. I think what we see is that through hybrid systems, we might be able to improve fuel efficiency and likewise greenhouse gas by double digit levels. And if we're able to do that, that's obviously desirable for our customers. There is an added cost to it. So the balance of what's the payback time sits into there. So there is a striving for a business case, which is free of regulatory hurdles. But we know that there will be regulations coming and going over time. So that could also be an added incentive to a hybrid business case. And that's true for both US and Europe, maybe especially true in Europe.

speaker
Operator
Conference Call Moderator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Steven Fisher of UBS. Steven, your line is open. Please go ahead.

speaker
Steven Fisher
Analyst at UBS

Thanks. Good afternoon. I just wanted to touch upon the margins in the first quarter. As you said, Preston, they're going to be pretty stable, which is pretty impressive on 10% lower productions. I guess I'm just curious, what is enabling that, that steadiness of the margins in light of that lower level of production?

speaker
Preston Fite
Chief Executive Officer

Well, I think what we're seeing is, you know, the trucks are performing really, really well. So that's helpful to us, obviously, in terms of discussions with customers. Fuel economy is great. The reliability is great. Our warranty costs are slightly down. And it just feels like between all those factors and where the market is starting to head, we think that we'll see that kind of a margin appear in the first quarter.

speaker
Steven Fisher
Analyst at UBS

Okay. And I guess just curious about the broader pricing environment now. You know, do you think that it's now kind of more stable that we're in this part of the downturn? And how confident can we be that sort of we've hit the low points on margins and pricing discounts for the year?

speaker
Preston Fite
Chief Executive Officer

Sure. Great question again. And I think what we've shared and we continue to share is like we see 2025 with improvement coming throughout the year. We think for sure in the second half, maybe it's in the second quarter, we'll have to watch how the world develops, of course. But it feels like a positive trend.

speaker
Operator
Conference Call Moderator

Okay, thank you very much.

speaker
Preston Fite
Chief Executive Officer

Okay.

speaker
Operator
Conference Call Moderator

Our next question comes from Angel Castillo of Morgan Stanley. Angel, your line is open. Please go ahead. Angel, we are receiving a lot of feedback from your line. We will just try and reopen your connection.

speaker
Ken Hastings
Director of Investor Relations

We are. Charlie, why don't we go to the next caller? Of course. Charlie, let's go to the next caller.

speaker
Operator
Conference Call Moderator

And yeah. Our next question comes from Jamie Cook of Truist Securities. Jamie, your line is open. Please go ahead.

speaker
Jamie Cook
Analyst at Truist Securities

Hi, good morning. Just to clarify, can you speak specifically what price cost was for truck and for parts in the fourth quarter specifically and what's implied by region for 2025? And then my second question, it sounds like you would say the first quarter is the trough for margins in total. Is that for total company or is that also for truck margins? And I'm just wondering if you get to the back half of the year, do you expect to see sales growth and then get back to a position where we're actually seeing incremental margins versus decremental? Thank you.

speaker
Preston Fite
Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, I mean, that's another way of asking what we already talked about, I think, quite a bit. But the truck for Q4 price versus cost was negative point six on price and cost was 2.7%. And what we're expecting to see is some trending improvement through the course of the year, Jamie. And so we think that'll be favorable to your point. And we see continued strong parts margins. So like .9% in 4Q. And we would expect to see continued good margins in the first quarter as well. So those are contributing to a general upward trend in our mind.

speaker
Jamie

But was that by geography? I guess my question was.

speaker
Harry Skippers
President and Chief Financial Officer

I don't think we provided by geography,

speaker
Jamie

Jamie. Okay,

speaker
Jamie Cook
Analyst at Truist Securities

and then I guess the follow up question was, by the second half of 2025, should we start to see incremental margins? Are you assuming sales volumes are up versus decrementals? I mean, your margins are pretty impressive right now in the first quarter.

speaker
Harry Skippers
President and Chief Financial Officer

As the market improves in the second half of the year, we would expect margin development to improve accordingly.

speaker
Preston Fite
Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, I mean, I think, Jamie, nice comment. Thanks for the comment on the margin. Thanks also for the comment on the margins, because it is, you know, these are cycle of recycle good margin improvements, few hundred basis points. And we do think that, as we said last time, we remain consistent this time. We think that 2025 will see improvement throughout the year. And as it improves, that'll be good for our incrementals.

speaker
Jamie Cook
Analyst at Truist Securities

Great. Thank you very much.

speaker
Preston Fite
Chief Executive Officer

You bet.

speaker
Operator
Conference Call Moderator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Tim, a theme of Raymond James. Tim, your line is open. Please go ahead.

speaker
Tim
Analyst at Raymond James

Thank

speaker
Operator
Conference Call Moderator

you. Good morning.

speaker
Tim
Analyst at Raymond James

Maybe this first question, just in terms of any comments you could provide, just as it pertains to order activity and how the backlog is filling in both North America and Europe. Just curious in terms of how far your lead times extend and how that presumably quoting into the second quarter, but maybe you just give some color on that.

speaker
Preston Fite
Chief Executive Officer

Sure, Tim. Good question, Jamie. Good insight to gain for everybody is I think that we're roughly 75% or three quarter full in Q1 and probably more like half full in Q2. So that's kind of where things look like pretty reasonable levels.

speaker
Tim
Analyst at Raymond James

Got it. Okay. And the, presumably, the composition of that backlog much more weighted, I would assume, towards vocational. And should we think about any mix impact from that? Just if that supposition is correct, that would be a heavier weighting than normal. Is there much of an impact again from a product mix standpoint or is that kind of a neutral dynamic there?

speaker
Preston Fite
Chief Executive Officer

You know, Tim, I think that the vocational, the heavy influence of vocational was more of a last year thing. And as vocational study now, I think the mix shift is kind of coming back to more traditional levels.

speaker
Tim
Analyst at Raymond James

Okay, okay. Got it. And then maybe for Harry, just as if a big yes, but if we had the dollar at today's levels through the quarter, some pretty big moves against some of your key currencies. Is there a way to think about, A, what effects had, what impact that foreign exchange had on margins in the fourth quarter and what that may imply if the dollar were at today's levels for the first quarter?

speaker
Bryce Poploski
Vice President and Controller

Yeah, this is Bryce. I'll just comment on that. We had a negative effect on our net income in the fourth quarter from the foreign currencies, about $20 million. And something we obviously we don't know what's going to happen to rates, but as you said, if they stay where there are, obviously, it wouldn't be a recurring effect.

speaker
Harry Skippers
President and Chief Financial Officer

And it's all affected into our guidance of between 15 and a half to 16%.

speaker
Tim
Analyst at Raymond James

Okay, thank you very much. Okay. Thank

speaker
Operator
Conference Call Moderator

you. Our next question will go to Angela Castillo of Morgan Stanley. Hang hell. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

speaker
Angela Castillo
Analyst at Morgan Stanley

Hi, can you hear me this time?

speaker
Preston Fite
Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, you're not giving us quite the static you did on your first time.

speaker
Angela Castillo
Analyst at Morgan Stanley

I apologize for that. Sounds like it's working right now. So maybe thanks for taking my question. I apologize if somebody asked it, but just I think you lowered the R&D expense for the full year. Can you just talk about maybe what's driving that and, you know, maybe going back to one of the initial questions around the Amplify JV. Obviously, a lot of kind of good, good, I guess, strategic reasons to continue to invest in that, but I believe it was a multi-phase project. Is it fair to assume that it will be, you know, you'll be doing it in phases and deciding to move forward or is it we should assume that all three phases are moving forward?

speaker
Preston Fite
Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, sure. That's a great question. Both of them. So R&D is going to be still year over year, we're thinking, you know, slightly up. So probably in the range of 5% up from last year, just because there's a lot of great projects for us to be working on. Of course, the Amplify one doesn't really fit into that space. But what we're doing with Amplify is we've cleared the ground now, we're putting in the buildings, and then what we'll do is measure how much capacity we need to install. But we want to get started on that. So we have some capacity available for the markets that exist. And then we'll just scale capacity based upon market demands for the EVs or hybrids.

speaker
Angela Castillo
Analyst at Morgan Stanley

That's helpful. And then I wanted to go back to some comments I made this quarter and I guess last quarter as well in terms of maybe some green shoots on the TL or starting to see some improvements. I think you mentioned that you could maybe see some improvement as soon as 2Q. Can you just give us a little bit more color? What exactly are you hearing from your customers, you know, in terms of potential green shoots on the TL market? And maybe what would kind of give you confidence in that 2Q number starting to show a rebound versus maybe more of a second half?

speaker
Preston Fite
Chief Executive Officer

There are a couple things. One is we've just started to see spot rates of improvement. So that's something that's measuring into our thoughts. I'd say some of the capacity has come out of the market. So it's making it easier for the good carriers to become successful. And then I would also add, as we said earlier, that the used market inventories are quite low. And so that's kind of a tell of how the world is starting to turn a little bit. So all of those are soft indicators of what we think is to come.

speaker
Angela Castillo
Analyst at Morgan Stanley

Thank you.

speaker
Preston Fite
Chief Executive Officer

You

speaker
Angela Castillo
Analyst at Morgan Stanley

bet.

speaker
Operator
Conference Call Moderator

Thank you. As a reminder, if you'd like to ask a question, please dial star followed by one on your telephone keypads. Our next question comes from David Russo of Evercore ISI. David, your line is open. Please proceed.

speaker
David Russo
Analyst at Evercore ISI

Hi, thank you for the time. Your comment about strengthening market as the year progresses. How was that influencing how you're pricing the 26 model years that start shipping in April? And then wrapping with that maybe a bit, your reaction to some of the recent executive orders from the White House just to think about how that influences how you think about the pre-buy, which I assume sort of dovetails a little bit into how you think about pricing.

speaker
Preston Fite
Chief Executive Officer

Well, you know, we've we look at the executive orders, we pay attention to it, but we know what the rules are today and we are ready for those rules. If they were to change, then we'd be ready for that too. One of the things we've been able to do is develop the suite of technologies we need. California has already implemented low NOx engines and Packard has a low NOx engine in California so we can be available to that. And if things shift around, we'll be ready in that position as well. To the first question you asked about pricing and 2026 product shipments, you know, I think as the market moves around and people are experiencing the great performance of the Kenworth, Peterbilt and Dove trucks, we expect that we will see strengthening price position for ourselves as the course of the year progresses. We think that trend carries on even beyond 25, we anticipate.

speaker
David Russo
Analyst at Evercore ISI

And we hear the model year 26 starts shipping in April. I know there'll be a little mix of 25 and 26 and 2Q, but is that accurate? We start getting some of the 26 models shipping in 2Q for this year?

speaker
Preston Fite
Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, your comment David there, I don't know what that is, but that doesn't resonate to me of a model year 26 shifting in April for us, so I'm not sure how to answer that.

speaker
David Russo
Analyst at Evercore ISI

Okay, well we can talk offline, but basically the higher pricing sequentially is what you're referencing as the year goes on. However you want to name the model. Yeah, that's fair. But yeah, yeah, okay. Thank you very much. I appreciate it. You bet.

speaker
Operator
Conference Call Moderator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Jerry Revich of Goldman Sachs. Jerry, your line is open. Please go ahead.

speaker
Jerry Revich
Analyst at Goldman Sachs

Yes, hi. Good morning and good afternoon everyone. I want to ask on the per truck performance in terms of operating costs, can you talk about the cadence that you expect over the next couple of quarters, it sounds like based on the gross margin guidance for the first quarter? Maybe we're seeing a decline in per truck costs, I'm wondering based on your contract structures, etc. Can you just talk about the cadence over the next couple of quarters?

speaker
Harry Skippers
President and Chief Financial Officer

If you look at the cost per truck, Jerry, in 2024 we saw some more content on trucks, especially in Europe, where we because of legal requirements, some more connected data and other features were added during the year. We expect those cost levels to be more or less stable as we enter the new year. No specific special developments in 2025, as far as I can tell right now.

speaker
Jerry Revich
Analyst at Goldman Sachs

Okay, so we're in separately, you know, on the topic of EPA 27, I appreciate the base cases, it's going to move forward. But, you know, obviously governments can make changes in the scenario if there's an adverse legal ruling or something along those lines. And can you talk about how the company would react in that scenario if we have different regulations for California and other states versus the rest of the US, how would you see that scenario playing out in your planning process?

speaker
Preston Fite
Chief Executive Officer

You know, one of the things that's great about PACR is the quality of the people in this company and our ability to be nimble and reactive is I think second to none. So I think if there are changes in regulations, there is nobody better at adjusting to those regulatory changes than the people at PACR. And so we'll make sure we have the right products in front of the customers that are going to give them the best operating condition for the regulatory environment.

speaker
Jerry Revich
Analyst at Goldman Sachs

Appreciate it. Thank you. You bet.

speaker
Operator
Conference Call Moderator

Our next question comes from Jeff Kostman of Vertical Research Partners. Jeff, your line is open. Please go ahead.

speaker
Jeff Kostman
Analyst at Vertical Research Partners

Okay, thank you very much. I, two questions. Number one, I want to come back to the change in revenue per truck was down about 4.9. I think you mentioned 0.6 of that was price. I'm assuming most of the rest of the difference is mix and currency. Could you give me an idea of how to think about that math?

speaker
Harry Skippers
President and Chief Financial Officer

Like we said, I think more or less half of the impact is currency. And there is another element there that in the fourth quarter, the US and Canada have more holidays. So the mix was a little bit more heavily towards Europe and other markets outside the US, but average sales prices and called Turks are smaller and average sales prices are lower.

speaker
Jeff Kostman
Analyst at Vertical Research Partners

Okay, thanks. And I just want to follow up on David Rassos question. Obviously, you know, as the administration comes out with new rules, you say you comply. Where do you think ignoring 27 and the EPA, but are there other rulings that have been discussed that would be risk worth thinking about in terms of its impact to pack our from the new administration?

speaker
Preston Fite
Chief Executive Officer

You know, I don't think of them as risks as much as I think of them as opportunities. I think anytime environments change, if you operate better than your competitors, then you'll find yourself in a winning position. And that's where we intend to be.

speaker
Jeff Kostman
Analyst at Vertical Research Partners

So Preston, what would some of those opportunities be in your mind?

speaker
Harry Skippers
President and Chief Financial Officer

The fact that we produce local for local have factories in the US where we produce the trucks for the US. Same in Mexico, Brazil, Europe makes us very well protected to things like tariffs, for example. So we feel we're in a really good spot there.

speaker
Jeff Kostman
Analyst at Vertical Research Partners

Okay, thank you very

speaker
Operator
Conference Call Moderator

much.

speaker
Preston Fite
Chief Executive Officer

You bet.

speaker
Operator
Conference Call Moderator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Michael Feniger or Bank of America. Michael, your line is open. Please go ahead.

speaker
Michael Feniger
Analyst at Bank of America

Yeah, hi, everyone. Thanks for having me on. Just pack our eyes clearly gained a lot of share. I realize it's because of, you know, your, your, your great trucks and your products. Just, I'm curious if we see other OEMs raising capacity, trying to go after your market share pricing intensifies. I'm curious how you guys weigh the puts and takes there. Is, is pack are more likely to continue to kind of price for your, your premium trucks and look to hold that margin? Or is it every year, your goal is to try to gain that level of market share? Is that not as linear? Is that more over over a multi cycle basis? Just kind of curious how you think about that because you guys have gained so much share and there is some other OEMs kind of raising capacity.

speaker
Preston Fite
Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, the way we think about it is we try to first off, make sure that we produce great trucks for our customers. And if we produce great trucks for our customers that are valuable to them, then they're willing to pass for those trucks and sharing that value equation. That's the most fundamental thing. And the more we can do that for them, the better it works for us. And you gave a nod to the people that pack are producing great trucks. I'd also share in that our dealers are really outstanding and do a good job of supporting our customers and going out there and showing them the benefits of our, of our trucks. So it's really about great trucks that achieve benefits to our customer. That helps us maintain our premium position and allows us also to simultaneously gain market share.

speaker
Michael Feniger
Analyst at Bank of America

Great. Just just on parts, you know, the last three quarters, you know, your revenue is up 4%. I think the pre tax profit has been slightly down year over year. Is there anything on the last that you would want to flag on 24? I'm just curious, you know, as we kind of turn the page, you know, just pre tax profit, does the parts profit kind of grow in line with sales as we kind of look at 2025? Just any moving pieces there would be helpful.

speaker
Harry Skippers
President and Chief Financial Officer

And in in in two thousand and twenty four, we saw part sales increase by 4%. At the same time, we see that the market for up sales for parts was down two or 3%. So growing our part sales in a smaller market at excellent margins, that's a that's a really impressive performance by the entire packer parts team. And as we go into 2025, we expect parts to grow by two to 4% for the year. That'll be another strong year for packer parts.

speaker
Michael Feniger
Analyst at Bank of America

Thank you.

speaker
Preston Fite
Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, you bet.

speaker
Operator
Conference Call Moderator

Thank you. As a final reminder, if you'd like to ask a question on today's call, please dial star followed by one on your telephone keypad. Our next question comes from Scott group of Wolf Research. Scott, your line is open. Please go ahead.

speaker
Scott
Analyst at Wolf Research

Hey, thanks. Good morning. Good afternoon. I just want to actually follow up on that last question. So if you think about last year, the markets down and parts sales are up 4%. And I guess this year's you think the market's flat to up, but the parts growth slows. So help me understand why we're not seeing a pickup in in parts sales if the market is improving.

speaker
Preston Fite
Chief Executive Officer

Well, we told one of the things is Harry indicated is like the cadence of the parts market last year. And like the general market, it's going to be a tale of two halves probably for the total market. So what we're talking about right now is Q1 and excellent parts performance in Q1. And we would expect to see them grow through the course of the year.

speaker
Harry Skippers
President and Chief Financial Officer

It's strongly related to freight activity and the rest of the business. So it should also have that kind of cadence.

speaker
Scott
Analyst at Wolf Research

Okay, that makes sense. And then I think you said 75% sold for the first quarter half full for the second quarter. Just do you have any sort of context? Is that sort of about right? Is that the head of schedule below behind schedule? And then do you have any view if the order strength of late has pre by activity started yet? Or is that still all on the come?

speaker
Preston Fite
Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, I think that's a good question. Yeah, you know, we're in a fairly normal position for our backlogs really kind of normal for this kind of a part of the cycle. And I would say that the discussions around what people are going to do for the second half of 25 and then in 26 are happening. But I wouldn't say there's really been any significant order intake in that area.

speaker
Scott
Analyst at Wolf Research

Thank you guys. Appreciate it. Yeah, you bet.

speaker
Operator
Conference Call Moderator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Max Liss of Kepler Chevrolet. Max, your line is open. Please go ahead.

speaker
Max Liss
Analyst at Kepler Chevrolet

Yeah, hi, thank you for taking my question. I just had a question about the European market there. If you could give some flavor about different countries there. And also how you see the market progress throughout 25. I mean, you have the guidance, but if you could give some some flavor that please.

speaker
Preston Fite
Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, sure. Let me start and then Harry can add in some thoughts to it. I mean, the general sense for us is the you know, the European economy is maybe going to experience slight growth, I think, really slight potentially in Germany. What we saw last year is that the eastern Central Eastern European markets were softer because of geopolitics, I would say. So that has some impact on the market overall. We'll see if that continues through this year. And that kind of leads to I think people in Europe feeling moderately okay about the market. I don't know what you'd add to that.

speaker
Harry Skippers
President and Chief Financial Officer

You know, overall markets in Europe last year was down 8%. And then we talked about Western Europe, maybe down 5% but Central and Eastern Europe in the 20% range, especially countries like Poland, Lithuania are more impacted. And that does have a strong presence there. So it has a little bit bigger impact on that than it maybe hasn't some of our competitors. But looking into 2025, the market in the range that we guided, that's a good market in which Packard should do really well.

speaker
Max Liss
Analyst at Kepler Chevrolet

Okay, great. Thank you. And could you just add a comment there regarding your capacity utilization in Europe with DAF?

speaker
Preston Fite
Chief Executive Officer

Capacity utilization is good. We have capacity for when the market grows, we continue to make smart investments in the factories there. We have our factory in the UK, factory in the Netherlands. And so we can produce the trucks we need to. We continue to make those factories more and more efficient.

speaker
Max Liss
Analyst at Kepler Chevrolet

And the back and the coverage there for the first and second quarter is about the same as the average that you mentioned for the whole group.

speaker
Harry Skippers
President and Chief Financial Officer

Yes, that's correct. Europe is more or less in line with what Preston just mentioned on the total group.

speaker
Max Liss
Analyst at Kepler Chevrolet

Okay, great. Thank you very much.

speaker
Harry Skippers
President and Chief Financial Officer

You're welcome.

speaker
Steven Fisher
Analyst at UBS

Have a good day.

speaker
Operator
Conference Call Moderator

Thank you. We have no further questions in the queue at this time. So I'll hand back over to the management team for any further or final remarks.

speaker
Charlie
Operator

I'd like to thank everyone for joining the call and thank you, Charlie.

speaker
Operator
Conference Call Moderator

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's call. Thank you for joining. You may now disconnect your lines.

Disclaimer

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