Playa Hotels & Resorts N.V.

Good morning and welcome to the Playa Hotels and Resorts 4th Quarter 2023 earnings release and conference call. All participants will be in listen only mode. Should you need assistance, please signal a conference specialist by pressing star then zero on your telephone keypad. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. To ask a question, you may press star then one on your telephone keypad. To withdraw your question, please press star then two. Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Ryan Heemel with the company. Please go ahead, sir.

Thank you very much, Drew. Good morning, everyone, and welcome again to Playa Hotels and Resorts 4th Quarter 2023 earnings conference call. Before we begin, I'd like to remind participants that many of our comments today will be considered forward-looking statements and are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties that may cause the company to actual results to differ materially from what has been communicated. Forward-looking statements made today are effective only as of today, and the company undertakes no obligation to update forward-looking statements. For discussion of some of the risk factors that could cause our results to differ, please review the risk factor section of our annual report on Form 10-K, which we filed last night with the SEC. We've updated our investor relations website at .playaresorts.com with the company's recent releases. In addition, reconciliations to GAAP of the non-GAAP financial measures we discussed on today's call were included in yesterday's press release. On the call today, Bruce Wodinski, Playa's chairman and chief executive officer, will provide comments on the fourth quarter demand trends and key operational highlights. I will then review the fourth quarter results and our outlook for 2024. Bruce will wrap up the call with some concluding remarks before we turn it over to Q&A. With that, I'll turn it over to Bruce.

Great. Thanks, Ryan. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. Our fourth quarter results exceeded our expectations, coming in well above the high end of our expected range. The -than-expected results were broad-based across our segments, driven by strong demand during the high season. Before we dive in, I'd like to remind everyone that Hurricane Fiona hit the Dominican Republic in late September of 2022, causing us to temporarily close the Hyatt's Eve in Florida, Cap Conop, and Hilton La Romada Resorts for repairs for a portion of the third and fourth quarters of 2022. We estimate this had a 5.4 million negative impact net of business interruption proceeds on adjusted EBITDA in Q4 2022, but was an approximate 70 basis points benefit to our reported Q4 2022 owned resort EBITDA margin, as there were no corresponding revenues accompanying the business interruption proceeds we received. Comparability of our KPIs for the fourth quarter is further challenged by the fact that the affected resorts reopened for only the highest ADR portion of the quarter. Playa's owned resort EBITDA of $73.6 million in the fourth quarter of 2023 included a significant -over-year foreign currency exchange headwind of approximately $5.6 million due to the appreciation of the Mexican peso, a benefit from business interruption proceeds of approximately $900,000, and negative EBITDA at the dual resorts in the Dominican Republic. For Q4 2022-3, we estimate that the FX headwinds had a negative 250 basis points impact on both our reported owned resort EBITDA margin, as well as for our legacy portfolio, which excludes the dual resorts in the Dominican Republic. Adjusting for all of these factors, underlying adjusted EBITDA growth for legacy portfolio was approximately 6% during the fourth quarter. Finally, we have included a breakout of segmented financial KPIs excluding the DR dual resorts for the fourth quarter and full year 2023 on pages 17 and 20 of our earnings release to help you with your modeling and provide a frame of reference for the impact on our financials from these significantly lower ADR resorts. For our discussion today, commentary on comparable full year 2024 KPIs is synonymous with our legacy portfolio, as the dual Palm Beach was closed for a portion of Q1-23 and the dual Punta Cana was sold during Q4 2023, and thus would not be comparable for the full year metrics. As we outlined earlier in 2023, our expectation was that the first quarter would represent the highest year over year ADR in EBITDA growth in 2023, as we laugh the impact from Omicron in early 2022, and growth would normalize as we enter the second half of 2023, as the base comparison period had less noise. Additionally, based on our pacing and booking data, we were of the belief that the brief slowdown in bookings experienced ahead of the summer travel season was likely the result of pent up demand for European travel, and not indicative of weak demand for traditional winter travel to beach and warm weather destinations. This view largely came to fruition during the fourth quarter of 2023, as close in demand during the high season, particularly in Mexico, exceeded our expectations and aided our ADR growth, as these peak season bookings came at healthy rates. Our results in the Yucatan were quite exceptional on a currency adjusted basis, with occupancy nearing fourth quarter 2018 and 2019 levels. Our fourth quarter 2022 Yucatan ADR reflected multiple favorable true up adjustments. Excluding these adjustments, underlying fourth quarter ADR in the Yucatan increased approximately 2% year over year. The most remarkable aspect of our fourth quarter in the Yucatan, however, was the continued execution by our operations teams in Mexico, which were able to grow currency neutral margins approximately 100 basis points year over year on modest reported ADR growth. As you may recall, following the realignment of key management personnel, we've been revisiting various processes, staffing models, and procurement practices since the second quarter of 2023. And the results of our efforts really began to show in the second half of the year as ADR growth moderated. As we've mentioned on previous earnings calls, the process improvement will be iterative. And we will continue increasing efficiency where possible to help offset the impacts of rising wages and inflation in various expense categories. We believe we can hold FX neutral margins steady year over year in the Yucatan in 2024 on positive low single digit to mid single digit ADR growth, despite underlying wage pressure continuing. In the Pacific, close in demand helped ADR growth in this segment as well, partially offset by year over year occupancy declines as a result of hurricanes Norma and Lydia in our ongoing renovation work. We estimate that hurricanes Norma and Lydia negatively impacted segment Iquitap by approximately one to $1.25 million in the quarter. Similar to the Yucatan, the Pacific was able to grow margins on a currency neutral basis by approximately 290 basis points year over year, despite significant wage pressure. We expect to continue our renovation work in this segment during 2024 which should further help sustain rate growth in the future as the Hyatt Los Cabos had not had any major renovation work done since the significant renovation that occurred following Hurricane Odile in 2014. In the DR, fundamental strength during the fourth quarter was led by the Hyatt Capcana, which continues to be the preeminent resort and one of the top resort markets in the world and was our best performing resort in Q4. Results in the segment were hindered by the Jewel resorts, which posted a modest loss in Q4. As a reminder, we completed the sale of the Jewel Punta Cana in late December and the Jewel Palm Beach was closed for a significant portion of Q1 2023, which we expect will provide a meaningful year over year increase in IVDA during Q1 2024. The two resorts combined for an IVDA loss of approximately $15 million in 2023 with the Jewel Palm Beach's loss in the fourth quarter narrowing to just under $1 million. We are still actively pursuing a sale of Jewel Palm Beach, but do not have any updates on the status of the sale process at this time. Finally, Jamaica had another solid quarter with occupancy increasing slightly year over year along with mid single digit ADR growth, despite a significant headwind from lower mice group next year over year. The segment was off to a good start in 2024, but the US State Department's travel advisory notice for Jamaica on January 23rd has had a negative impact on the segment near term as cancellations picked up meaningfully. Although the warning doesn't pertain to our resorts as much as the major metro areas and the fact that the level of the travel advisory was unchanged from the prior advisory, the press coverage of this advisory notice was significantly greater than prior warnings. Bookings in Jamaica have since stabilized, but the majority of the cancellations were per stays in the coming months and will be difficult to backfill. Given the warning level was not based on any new incidents or data, the impact of this, while unfortunate, will likely be confined to lost bookings in March through June. Looking at demand as a whole, demand for the fourth quarter of 2023 and beyond improved in July of last year. Continue to accelerate through the third quarter and remain healthy in the fourth quarter. In aggregate, during the fourth quarter of 2023, .4% apply owned and managed transit revenues booked were booked direct, down 460 basis points year over year. The decline was driven by fewer World of Higher Redemption bookings, following a spike during the first quarter of 2023 ahead of a change in the conversion rate per point redemptions, which pulled forward quite a bit of demand. We expect this to smooth out over time and believe we are in line with our targeted 50% transient direct book revenue mix. During the fourth quarter of 2023, PlyResource.com accounted for approximately .6% of our total Ply owned and managed transient women night bookings, continuing to be a critical factor in our customer sourcing and ADR gains. Taking a look at who is traveling, roughly .3% of the Ply owned and managed room night stays in the quarter came from our direct channels. Geographically, the biggest change in our guest mix during the fourth quarter was our European and Mexican source guest mix, both of which were up nearly 300 basis points year over year. Our Asian source guest mix improved modestly year over year, but remains the most oppressed as it is still only approximately 25% recovered versus pre pandemic levels. Our Canadian guest mix has remained relatively muted at approximately 60% recovered versus pre pandemic levels. However, there's recently been a significant increase in flight capacity into our markets from Canada for the high season, so I'm optimistic our Canadian guest mix will improve in the coming months. Our visibility remains a critical factor of our success as our booking window was just over three months during the fourth quarter. In total, while 2023 was a very successful year for Ply on many fronts, we face significant headwinds that mask the robust performance in our core core portfolio. However, our focus on execution and the stellar fundamentals should shine brighter in the near future as the profit headwinds are expected to abate. Starting the first quarter, we will begin to laugh the significant profit decline at the two jewel properties in the Dominican Republic. At current US dollar Mexican peso spot FX rates, we expect FX pressure to ease significantly beginning in Q3 2024 and we will be laughing the significant increase in our insurance expense in Q2 2024 as well. Finally, on the capital allocation front, we repurchased approximately $33.5 million worth of Plyus stock during the fourth quarter and an additional $14.6 million thus far in the first quarter, bringing our total repurchases since resuming our program in September 2022 to approximately $245 million or approximately 20% of the shares outstanding. We continue to believe that our significant free cash flow generation is underappreciated given the modest amount of ROI driven capbacks expected in the near term and continued healthy business fundamentals. Once again, I would like to thank all of our associates who have continued to deliver to deliver world class service in the face of unexpected unexpected challenges and rising operating costs. Their unwavering passion and dedication to service from the heart is what truly sets Ply up part. With that, I will turn the call back over to Ryan to discuss the balance sheet and our outlook.

Thank you, Bruce. Good morning again, everyone. I'll begin again with the recap of the segment fundamentals. Followed by an overview of our balance sheet and expected uses of cash and conclude with our outlook for 24. Before I begin my review, I'd like to remind everyone that starting in the first quarter of 2023, we elected to reclassify on premise room upgrade revenue from non-package revenue to package revenue to be consistent with industry trends. We've recasted prior periods to conform with the current period presentation. A reconciliation of these changes made to the prior reporting period for 21 and 22 can be found in our investor deck on slide five. As Bruce mentioned, there's some unique items affecting the comparability of our financials in the second half of 2023 that I'd like to remind you of before we dive in. First, Hurricane Fiona hit the Dominican Republic towards the end of Q3 2022 and caused significant disruption at the Hilton La Romana and the Hyatt Capcana, which we chose to temporarily close for a small portion of Q3 22 and over half of Q4 22. We shared on our previous earnings calls that we estimate the EBITDA impact to be to be roughly $3 million and approximately 80 to 90 basis points to resort EBITDA margins. And for the fourth quarter of 22, a $5.4 million EBITDA impact net of business interruption. Given the pronounced seasonality of our ADRs during the fourth quarter, these resorts were disproportionately open during the much higher ADR portion of the quarter, skewing our Q4 2022 ADR comparisons. Secondly, the Mexican peso had a very large year over year change during the fourth quarter of 2023, which negatively impacted our EBITDA by approximately $5.5 million and resort margins by 250 basis points. For full year 2023, the strengthening of the Mexican peso had an approximately $24.1 million impact on our own resort EBITDA or 260 basis points and a $24.5 million impact on our total adjusted EBITDA. Thirdly, during the fourth quarter of 22, as we've mentioned previously, we had several adjustments that significantly increased the reported Q4 22 ADRs. The largest of these was related to an advanced pricing agreement rates in the Dominican Republic, which we detailed in our Q4 2022 earnings release on page 17. As a reminder, these adjustments totaled nearly $10 of ADR or 2.5%. Fourth, business interruption. We recognized again a gain of roughly $900,000 from BI proceeds during the fourth quarter of 23, which increased own resort EBITDA margins by approximately 40 basis points. As a reminder, for the full year 23, we recognized a gain of $6.1 million from business interruption proceeds and recoverable expenses. Lastly, as we've mentioned, the DR jewels, these resorts continue to weigh on the performance of the portfolio in 23, negatively impacting own resort EBITDA margins by over 250 basis points for the fourth quarter. For the full year 23, the two resorts recorded an EBITDA loss of approximately $15 million and negatively impacted own resort margins by approximately 280 basis points. And I'm moving on to the fundamentals. Before I begin, all references to expense and margin KPIs are on a currency neutral basis unless otherwise stated. Our fourth quarter results were ahead of our expectations as demand steadily picked up throughout the quarter. Higher demand and easing pressure from food and beverage and utilities expenses, again on an FX neutral basis, as well as our cost efficiency measures led to a reported Resort margin decline of about 290 basis points, which again included a 250 basis point -over-year headwind from foreign exchange and a 40 basis point benefit from business interruption proceeds and a 70 basis point headwind from the two jewel resorts in the Dominican. So adjusting for foreign exchange and business interruption in the prior period and this period, our legacy portfolio maintained margins on a -over-year basis. The higher demand for ADR gains in the quarter was very broad based with all segments reporting -over-year ADR growth, excluding the two jewel resorts in the DR. On the cost front, food and beverage costs continue to be favorable as a result of lower input prices and cost efficiency efforts by our operations team. Utilities and labor were also favorable in the quarter with the latter reflecting efficiency measures as wage inflation continues to remain a headwind. As Bruce mentioned, we're undertaking efforts to streamline and improve our procurement process across the entire portfolio to take advantage of our scale. These efforts are really just beginning to bear fruit from the heavy lifting undertaken thus far in 23 and we expect the benefits to accelerate as the company moves into 24 and beyond as our cost savings are averaging currently mid single digits to high single digit improvements per category. We estimate that we've only penetrated roughly 30% of the potential addressable procurement savings thus far with half of the savings flowing into our cost during the fourth quarter of 2023. Now turning to our mice group business, our 2024 net mice group business on the books is approximately $62 million, up roughly 23% compared to the same time last year. Our mice business on the books for 24 is much more balanced versus 2023, which as a reminder had difficult year over year mice comparisons in the second half versus what we traditionally experience. Finally, turning to the balance sheet, we finished the quarter with total cash balance of $272.5 million and total outstanding interest bearing debt of $1.09 billion. We currently have no outstanding borrowings in our $225 million revolving credit facility. Our net leverage on a trailing basis stands at approximately three times excluding leases. We anticipate our cash capex spend for full year 2024 to be approximately $80 to $90 million for the year, partitioned out between $35 to $40 million for maintenance capex and the remainder designated for ROI oriented projects. Also as a reminder, effective April 15th, we entered into two interest rate swaps to mitigate the floating interest rate risk in our term loan due 2029. We entered into a two and three year contract, both of which have fixed notional amounts of $275 million and carry fixed SOFA rates of 4.05 and .71% respectively. Separately, we've implemented foreign exchange hedges on approximately half of our Mexican peso exposure for 2024, which should greatly reduce the volatility of the impact of our reported EBITDA this year. Based on exchange rates at the times we entered into the FX swaps, we estimate the full year 2024 FX impact from the Mexican peso to be approximately $7 to $11 million. But again, with nearly 75% of that impact coming in Q1 of 2024 and nearly 100% of that impact in the first half of the year. On the capital allocation front, as Bruce mentioned, we've repurchased an additional $33.5 million of stock during the fourth quarter and an additional $14.6 million thus far in Q1 of 2024. Since we began repurchasing shares since last September, we've purchased over 32.8 million shares or as Bruce mentioned, nearly 20% of the shares outstanding. We still have over 185 or 180 million remaining on our existing repurchase authorization. And with our leverage ratios at or near three times, the anticipated free cash flow generation of the business and the attractive valuation of our stock, we believe repurchasing shares is a very compelling use of capital and intend to use our discretionary capital repurchase shares going forward depending on market conditions. Now turning our attention to our outlook for 2024. As we mentioned in our release, we expect our full year 2024 adjusted EBITDA to be between 250 to 275 million, which includes the following key considerations and inputs. The first, it assumes ADR growth of mid single digits for the total portfolio and low single digits for the comparable legacy portfolio. The driving force of the delta between these two is a positive, approximately 360 basis point impact from removing the lower ADR room night in the mix from the recently sold jewel plentecana, partially offset by the ramping occupancy of jewel plumb beach. Occupancy, we expect to be up mid single digits, mid single percentage points for the total portfolio and up modestly for the comparable legacy portfolio. We expect rev-par growth of low double digits for the total portfolio and low single digits to mid single digits for the comparable portfolio. We estimate that the disposition of the jewel plentecana and the ramping occupancy at the jewel plumb beach contributes approximately 900 basis points to 2024 rev-par, with the vast majority of that contribution being from the results of disposing of the jewel plentecana and only a modest contribution to rev-par from the jewel plumb beach, as improving occupancy is partially offset by the negative mix of ADR. Again, as we mentioned, we assume FX headwinds of 7 to 11 million based on current exchange rates. We expect construction disruption impact of approximately mid single digits to high single digits EBITDA in the Pacific and at the highest of the lower Cancun. Inflation, as we've mentioned several times on this call, we've been diligently working to improve our efficiency and we believe we've lowered our margin leverage hurdle to approximately 4% ADR rate growth to hold margins flat on a currency and business interruptions. And we expect a modest negative net impact from annualizing corporate expenses increases from 2023, again partially offset by higher and growing fee income from our managed business and applied collection fees. And with regards to the cadence, we expect the first quarter to show the most robust profit in the year given the Q1 2023 comparison, which as a reminder included a $5 million loss of the DR jewels. So again, to sum this up, at the midpoint, this $250 to $275 million range represents approximately 1% decline year over year versus the business interruption adjusted $265.8 million figure that were reported in 2023. So moving on to the first quarter. For the first quarter of 2024, we expect reported occupancy to be in the low to mid 80% and reported package ADR to decline low single digits year over year basis, again due to the jewel Palm Beach. However, comparable legacy portfolio ADR is expected to grow low single digits. We expect owned resort EBITDA margins to decline year over year, given the continuing FX headwinds in Mexico, which are expected to negatively impact margins by approximately 200 basis points at today's spot rates. Putting it all together, we expect Q1 owned resort EBITDA of 108 to 114 million, apply a collection and management fee income of roughly 2 to 3.5 million, corporate expense of approximately 14 to 15 million, which again includes a negative FX impact related to our office in Mexico. And finally, Q1 adjusted EBITDA of 98 to 104 million. Given our booking window, we are currently 96% booked for the first quarter. I hope that framework helps guide you as you fine tune your models and gets further insight to what we're seeing and expecting. With that, I'll turn it back over to Bruce for some concluding remarks. Great. Thanks, Ryan.

So the year is off to a good start with solid top line growth, despite the setback in Jamaica from the travel warning and laughing difficult comparisons from 2023. We remain focused on the areas within our control, such as our expense efficiency efforts and ongoing portfolio optimization. On the latter point, we're actively working on the sale of the jewel palm beach and will be continuing the renovation work that is slated in the Pacific, as well as beginning renovation work on our successful high resorts in Cancun. We will continue to redeploy the significant free cash flow we generate and share repurchases in our market leading assets, setting us up to accelerate growth beyond 2024. So that concludes our presentation and now we'll open it up for a Q&A.

We will now begin the question and answer session. To ask a question, you may press star, then 1 on your telephone keypad. If you're using a speakerphone, please pick up your handset before pressing the keys. If at any time your question has been addressed and you would like to withdraw your question, please press star, then 2. Again, it is star, then 1 to ask a question. At this time, we will pause momentarily to assemble our roster. The first question comes from Smedes Rose with Citi. Please go ahead.

Hi, thanks. You have a lot of moving pieces here that will probably take a little time to go through more carefully. But I guess my question is really if you could just speak to underlying demand and booking patterns that you've seen thus far into 2024. I know you gave some -bid'ah guidance. And I guess any impact from the shift in Easter and if that's affecting bookings at all. Yeah,

as Bruce mentioned in his closing remarks, the first quarter is off to a great start. On the Easter front, for us, any time Easter is further out, it just essentially elongates our high season. So it's a week earlier this year. So the benefit of Easter moves into Q because that's a very important week for us in Manasanta, particularly in Mexico. So that benefits in Q1, but it just essentially shortens our high season by approximately a week. And essentially like a week or two right after Easter are slower months for us. So longer is better, further out is better. So it has a nominal impact on our overall results just from it being a week shorter. But things are off to a really good start. Things are pacing well in the first half of the year. I think one of the main points that we want to get across when we think about our margin are kind of pacing and then just the pace of our growth in 2024. It's pretty evenly balanced. Obviously, the first quarter has some comparability issues because the jewels were dragged in Q1 of last year and the jewel palm beach wasn't open. But generally, the kind of cadence of our red bar growth and our top line stats for ADR and for red bar are pretty even throughout the year. I do think there's been kind of a return to kind of normal seasonality in our business. But other than that, I think it's things are off to a great start. The biggest thing that we needed to monitor, as Bruce mentioned, was the impact of the cancellations from the travel warning from Jamaica. I know we talked to many folks last night. It has already stabilized, at least from a turn positive again quickly. But we're not back yet to par. So the next kind of couple months, particularly in March and April and May, will really give us some insight into how well we're able to recover some of that loss business. But other than that, things have started off well.

Could you just speak to what you're seeing on the supply side, I guess, specifically in Jamaica, where we've heard from other folks that there's quite a bit of construction underway and maybe how you're thinking about that?

Yeah, there is that of all the markets have again planned or at least what's been kind of announced, you know, it's probably the highest number of potential room counts. You're talking kind of mid teens potential rooms being added again, assuming it all gets done. That market in general has not had an immense amount of supply. I'm talking specifically Montego Bay or it has not had a lot of supply over the years. Hello?

Yes.

Okay, so you're still there, Smith? Okay, we just want to make sure we didn't lose everybody. Sorry. For example, that market, you know, from 2019 to 23, it's CAGR with less than 2%. So there is a little bit more coming in there. But generally what's planned is still low to mid single digit room nights in all of our destinations. And again, that assumes it all gets done.

Thank you. Thanks, Meade. The next question comes from Sean Kelly with Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Hi, good morning, everyone. Ryan, Bruce, maybe just to follow up on Meade's question there. I mean, I guess one question we've asked is just, you know, can you see the same level of improvement in, you know, the peaks that you would see in the shoulders? And, you know, I know it's a little far out, but, you know, I think the surprise has been some of the strength you've seen, you know, even as you kind of approach peak season, it seems like things actually accelerated a little bit. So just kind of how do you think about peaks and valleys a little bit? Because again, I think maybe in the shoulder seasons, we're not really sure if that's an easier comp or if that is a place where just behavior is normalizing and kind of wondering how you're seeing it.

Sure. It's a great question, Sean. So, I mean, I would say, you know, if you look back, you know, a couple quarters ago, right, everybody's concern was that the leisure bubble has burst. And particularly on our business that, you know, the benefits that we got in 21 and 22 were diminishing, right? And people were, you know, going to Europe or they're not willing to pay the amount or, you know, kind of it was transient kind of demand. I think what's more transitory is what I meant. But what I think we've really seen is that the demand is still there. It's really strong. And, you know, what we did in December, what we're seeing so far in the first quarter is incredibly positive for our business. So I think the, you know, the fear that people had that, you know, it was kind of going away or going to greatly drop, you know, has not materialized. And I don't believe it's going to materialize. So the second part of your question is, OK, what does that mean for the shoulder season? Is it going to be an easier comp or is it going to be, you know, kind of a continued, you know, return to normalization? I think it's more just a return to normalization. Sure, maybe we'll benefit from an easier comp, you know, that's kind of related to that. But I think, you know, historically, our business, you know, derived a huge amount of our profit, you know, in the first four months of the year and then, you know, in December. And I think you're kind of going back to that kind of pattern. The good news for us is, you know, it is accelerating. So what we what we saw in the fourth quarter, particularly in December, and what we're seeing in the first quarter is accelerating. And so I think that bodes well for our business. It's kind of messy. We've got a lot of moving pieces here and it's hard to kind of discern it. But I think if you just kind of forget about like so many of the moving pieces and if you can just focus on the underlying fundamentals, I think it's a positive story.

Very helpful. Thanks, Bruce. And then my follow up would just be, you know, a little bit more kind of thought around margins. I think we're all increasingly comfortable with, you know, the cost and inflation growth at domestic hotels. And Bruce, I know you have a lot of experience and a lot of, you know, colleagues and contacts in that world. So I think we all know what they're up against, which is probably, you know, the lower bound of mid single digit. Let's call it four odd percent inflationary pressure is probably what many companies we talk to are looking for. The question for Playa is more, you know, what's let's leave FX out of it because we know that's separate. But like excluding FX, what's different for Playa is the wage pressure you face a little higher just given what's going on in the local dynamics there, you know, that offset by procurement. Just help us think about the layers that are a little different given your portfolio, you know, in your exposures.

Yeah, you hit that on the head. So excluding the effects of FX, that's kind of we look out to 24. We expect call us kind of four to four and a half percent, you know, off X growth. The biggest contributing factor to that, at least in 24, is labor costs. Mostly in Jamaica, they actually did a large minimum wage increase in the second half of 2023. It was 44 percent. And so you're you're lapping, you know, you're annualizing that figure in 2024. And they've also changed around some of the smaller to smaller set minimum wage or benefits and PTO and things like that in Mexico. But the Jamaica kind of catch up is the largest impact of that kind of four to four and a half percent. That's 80 to 100 basis points of that is Jamaica's impact. So the nice part is once you get through this year, you start to lap some of the impacts of that, because, you know, when you look back at kind of trends and you go back the last 10 years of when they raise usually after big kind of catch up raise like that, you're probably not going to see another big jump immediately the next year. And the same thing we've seen in Mexico and the Dominican. It's usually every couple of years they move. They move minimum wage or something like that. So Jamaica is the biggest focus. You know, insurance, it will be, you know, it's still too early to tell, but it should be far better from everything we've seen from initial meetings with insurers. We'll be renewing our insurance in April. But all five points are much better renewal. It certainly won't go backwards, but it won't be up, you know, 40 to 50 percent like it was last year. And then to your point, some of the things that we've done on procurement and staffing have really helped us lower that margin and leverage point to your point. I mean, if you don't mind, I mean, I mentioned before those reductions on the procurement side, you know, there is mid single digits, high single digits savings per category. And that drove, you know, savings in 2023 for basically the back half of the year of about a million and a half bucks. And so if you annualize that, it's roughly two and a half million. And so essentially that relates to that results in roughly 20 to 25 basis points of annualized cost savings. And we're only 30 percent of the way through. So now if you kind of extend what we're planning to attack in 2024, where we're targeting another 20 to 25 percent of the cost base, if it all goes well, cumulatively by the end of 24, we will have reduced our cost base by roughly 30 to 35 basis points permanently with more to attack from there. So to your point, there's can't do a whole lot about labor, you know, other than staffing, which we're not going to yank out, you know, a bunch of staff. So our focus is on what we can control and that's procurement and some of the staffing that we do in the shoulder periods. So I know that's a long answer, but that's kind of what we're facing, at least in our markets versus what the guys in the US are facing.

Very clear. Thanks, Ryan. Thanks, Bruce. Thanks, Sean.

The next question comes from Chad Bainan with Macquarie. Please go ahead.

Morning. Nice results. Thanks for taking my question. Bruce, with respect to, I guess, non-same store growth, you talked about some of the ROI projects that you're working on in Mexico to kind of elevate the rankings and ratings within those luxury categories. But beyond this, how are you thinking about kind of where the opportunities could be, whether it's in the mid-range, like, you know, what you had announced with Windom, maybe additional luxury ROI projects in the current portfolio or maybe expanding beyond this? How are you just thinking about kind of the next five years where you want additional focus to be? Thanks.

Sure. Perfect, Chad. And you adding the next five years is perfect because literally we have a major focus internally on the next five years of CapEx and what we can do with our existing portfolio. We have great opportunities in the existing portfolio, and they're kind of in three different kind of buckets. One is what you talked about. Okay, where can we just do ROI projects that improve our ability to get higher rates? And that can be rooms renovations, that can be adding amenities, there can be a number of things that are in kind of in that bucket. The second bucket is rooms addition. We have a couple different locations where we have the ability to add rooms, and there is no higher kind of incremental ROI than adding rooms because you don't have to add a significant amount of infrastructure. You may add some amenities, but it's not like the basics that you have to add everything. So there are two in particular that we're focused on where we can add probably net or combined probably 250, 300 more rooms. So that's the kind of projects that we're very, very focused on. And then the final one is something that is kind of less sexy, but it's very beneficial. And that's really kind of things that save us costs. In the biggest area there, I mean, Ryan's talked a lot about the procurement and will continue. There's not a lot of capex associated with that. That's more processes and staffing. But there is another area, and that is in energy. And the opportunities are pretty significant because historically in the Caribbean in these kind of markets, you're really relatively inefficient. It's like you boat in diesel fuel to islands at very high costs, and then you're running kind of inefficient diesel fuel generators to generate electricity, whether we're doing it at the resort or local groups are doing it at their utilities. It's the same impact, and it's very inefficient. And it's also relatively adverse to the climate. So the benefit is we can do some projects. We've done a couple to evaluate it, but I think there's great opportunities to do that from mini turbines, liquefied natural gas opportunities, solar opportunities, a number of things that can really diminish our costs, lower our costs on the energy side. So they're really high returning projects. And we'll look at whether we spend the money or whether the outside firms spend some money. It's somewhat irrelevant. I think that's another area that we're going to be focused on. So as we look at the next five years, I think you're going to see us come back with more definitive plans. So hopefully by either the next earnings call or the one after that, you will see us laying out things that we're going to be focused on in order to drive growth. Because it's critical. During the pandemic, a lot of projects got put on the back shelf in the world was so uncertain. And now it's pretty clear that our business is very, very robust. The brands continue to be incredibly interested in trying to penetrate and do more deals. The existing competition is improving their properties, so we need to improve ours. And that's where our focus is going to be.

Right. Thanks. And then more near term, just kind of on the travel warning situation in Jamaica, I guess looking at previous periods when items like this have happened, what generally happens? Is there price discounting for kind of the low to mid end guys and luxury players like yourself hold pricing and sacrifice occupancy and then, you know, to your point, maybe the booking patterns, you know, recover or is there discounted pricing for, you know, a longer period than maybe you would hope for from some of the others?

Yeah, I think the only real example of something where we had to discount pricing was way back in 2019. These usually have a short shelf life. And again, we've got very disciplined revenue management team and they're not going to just quickly start adjusting rates to just get somebody in the door. You know, right. We had our bookings turn negative for about a week. They're turned positive, although they're not picking up as much as they would normally. Right. But it's slowly building. And so essentially what's what was taken out with potential occupancy on the books, but our rate on the books for those periods remains essentially flat to where we were at prior to that. So this we expect to be shorter term and to add a lot more information on how that stabilized by the time we get to our next earnings call.

And there's two kind of mitigating things that our commercial team has done, which I think have been really positive. One is for the people who canceled in Jamaica, we reached out to them and try to sell them to Mexico and the Dominican Republic. And we've had some success there. And obviously there's no discounting of rates for that kind of business. And then the second thing is focused on some local group business, Jamaican group business, which again, you don't have to discount because it's kind of a different market. But we're not going to, you know, overreact to this. I mean, it's pretty ridiculous from the State Department viewpoint. You know, absolutely nothing changed and they didn't change. It was a level three and still a level three. You know, why why they felt the need to put that out. I have no idea. Yeah. You know, but like Ryan said, the shelf life of these things, these things tends to be relatively short lived.

Yeah, that market was doing really well prior to that is where we're pacing and how we were building January. So we just view this as an aid into the potential upside from that market. So we'll have more information when we're back in May.

Great. Thank you both.

Appreciate it. Thanks, Chad.

The next question comes from Chris with Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

Hey, good morning, guys. Thanks for all the details so far. So I go in a slightly different direction. You know, you guys reviewed the mix of business. I think you said you picked up some were European and locally Mexican source. Can you maybe remind us. I know there's been a lot of focus on, you know, non package rep part and some of the kind of, you know, premium and upgrade options. Can you kind of remind us, you know, which geographies would be the best contributors to that if you get more recovery?

Thanks.

The highest

thing is generally the highest paying customers, which generally, you know, at a high level are the other Americans, you know, and I remember a lot of people when they first get, you know, introduced to all inclusive and they assume that somebody who comes in our low season who's paying a cheaper package rate is more likely to spend on additional incidental items. So this is the opposite. The people have the money, pay the highest rates, pay the highest for non package.

Okay, sure. Fair enough. And then, you know, Bruce, you guys, when I look at the apply collection and management fees, I think you took in about 11 million in the full year of 23, which I think was about a double over 22. And so the question is kind of you how much focus do you have? I know you're doing a lot of things with apply collection. I don't know what the management contract opportunities are. But also, you know, are there any other forms of, I guess, of ownership that are out there? Are there any kind of joint venture possibilities to get you a little bit more, you know, really just a little bit more, I guess, you know, top line, but also EBITDA from external growth?

Sure. You know, Chris, it's a great question. Like I said, you know, when I was responding to Chad on the five year plan, we're definitely focused on driving more growth. Right. And so a lot of it is just going to come from the portfolio because to be realistic, that's going to move the needle more than anything else. Okay. On the management contract side, you know, that it doesn't move the needle that much. And, you know, it will be a factor, but it won't be a significant factor. Where the apply collection is, you know, that's to be determined. You know, I think that can be, you know, a nice, nice kind of bump, you know, in kind of unexpected surprise. We should be fully rolled out to every one of our resorts within literally within the next few weeks. Okay. And so it's going to be nice that, you know, now we will have the sales center open across our entire portfolio and, you know, we'll see, you know, how that apply collection sales ramp up. Okay. So that's, you know, I think a positive. With regards to, you know, kind of what you said, join centers or other things, you know, absolutely. We are looking at those kind of opportunities. You know, it's not always the simplest or quickest things to get done because, you know, of more interesting characters in our space, probably than, you know, in traditional more institutional markets. But, but there are some good opportunities and I'm hopeful that in the near future, we'll be able to make some announcements. And again, it's not going to be like those will be massive kind of even our growth opportunities. But I think they'll be, you know, like the apply collection, nice incremental growth to our core portfolio. But we're really focused on, okay, here's where we are today. The business is incredibly solid, you know, as we've said. Now, how do we, you know, just kind of continue to improve, you know, improve our revenues, improve our even our growth, you know, improve our margins. I think that's where the focus is going to be. So, you know, we're, we're, we're, you know, optimistic. And at the same time, you know, we will continue to repurchase our stock if, you know, kind of the stock price stays in the range that it's been in the last, you know, 18, 24 months. I think you'll see us continue to do that. And, you know, it's, it's, you know, a pretty significant value enhancer as well. So those are the areas that we're focused on.

Okay, yeah, thanks. Very helpful. Thanks, Chris.

And, and the final question today comes from Tyler Batori with Oppenheimer. Please go ahead.

Thank

you. Good

morning. Big picture question first. I think for a lot of companies, you know, we're trying to figure out what's normal in this post COVID world after several years where things were not normal. So this commentary on comp or F bar growth this year, low single digits and mid single digits. Is that normal? Is that what you would expect in terms of growth longer term? Could there be upside to that range? And then the balance of ADR and occupancy? It sounds like this is mostly rate driven, limited occupancy. What are your latest thoughts on balancing occupancy and ADR going forward?

Our thoughts on that and the yield management strategy hasn't changed essentially to high level. You know, we're still focusing on feeding some occupancy in favor of rate, protecting the guest experience, protecting their satisfaction scores, which ultimately allows you to at a minimum maintain rate if not continue to drive it. And so, yeah, you know, low, low to mid single digit, you know, rep bar growth, you know, feels normal. And of course, like you said, it's mostly driven by ADR. Yeah, there will be increases in our occupancy this year, but it's mostly because of the the ramping from Palm Beach or the removal of Plintacana from last year. But the legacy portfolio should be modestly because I think we're pretty happy with with where things sit as far as occupancy and our ability to yield. If something dramatically changed, which is you heard Bruce and me say a few times, you know, if the consumers propensity to change or the world change or the summer version, the mean, which we're not seeing and don't expect, then maybe we would reconsider our occupancy versus ADR. But today we don't see a reason to do so.

Okay, and how about just, you know, this longer term perspective, comp rep bar, low single digits, the mid single digits. Did you think that's, is that what you consider normal?

Yeah, I think that's normal. And then, you know, going back to the question of where we're going to be investing. Okay, so like one of the projects we're going to, you know, we have land at one of our resorts where we can add about 110 rooms. And so it's really going to be a hotel within a hotel, right? And those will be premium rooms. And so those are going to get higher rates. And that's a lot of the focus that we've had. You know, again, we put we put so many projects on the back burner, you know, in 2020 2021 even 2022 that, you know, you know, the world was so uncertain. But now, you know, we're looking to rapidly execute some of these things. And, you know, just the ability to, to create more premium rate category rooms, okay, add other non package revenue opportunities, you know, that we're looking at, we've had some success recently, you know, and we're hoping to do more of that, you know, things that will, you know, kind of drive that growth. So, you know, if you take that normal, which I do think, you know, it's kind of the low single digit, you know, kind of mid single digit increases are normal. And then you add, you know, 100 200 300 basis points with some of these projects, not maybe on the whole portfolio, but in individual resorts and all I think you'll start to see, you know, very healthy and attractive, you know, growth opportunities. And more importantly than anything else, even if it's not gross, right, it's going to flow through.

Okay.

And then multi part question on the, the FX topic, sounds like you have some hedges in place, I'm assuming that's not something that you had in the past. So just help us think about that. Help us think about the the sensitivity here. I mean, if the peso is 16 or 18, what that might mean for the for the guide. And then another question that I get from a lot of new investors to talk about this story might be helpful to address in this public forum. Just why is the appreciation of the peso a drag? You just talked through all the mechanics there. It'd be helpful.

Yeah, it's a translation issue because we report our functional currencies USD and roughly 60 65% of our Mexican expenses locally are denominated in peso. You know, the biggest one being wages, right? We're obviously paying people in peso. We're spending a lot, you know, from vendors and food and you know, you know, locally. And so it gets converted. So you divide it by a, a lower number, you know, when it gets converted to USD, it's higher. So on as far as the heads that we put in place. So just in January, we had about 50% of our Mexican peso exposure. And so essentially we sold volatility. So, and that kind of, and that's how you get to the ranges, right? So if we hadn't done anything and our exposure was not hedged and the peso stayed at 17 for the year, it's approximately $9 million hit year over year. Because we sold some volatility and assuming that our, our expense base stays exactly as we have forecasted, there's some upside to that, meaning that the lower end of that range is called at $7 million. So there's kind of two to two and a half million dollars that we were paid to put that FX hedge in place because of where the curve sat at the time. The upper bound range of that is if our expenses or expense base is higher than we thought for some reason than our forecast. So that would bring it to the other end of that. So we kind of use the midpoint of 9 million if we had no hedge at a spot rate of 17. But if it stays at 17 and our expenses are exactly as we think, that moves to the lower end of that range to closer to 7 million. And again, almost entirety of that is captured in the first half of the year. The impact of that is almost higher than the first half of the year.

All right, great. Very helpful. Thank you for the detail. Thanks, Alex.

This concludes our question and answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Bruce Wardinsky for any closing remarks.

Great. Thanks, everyone, for participating. I think we covered a lot of material. Hopefully it was useful and we appreciate your interest in Playa. Thank you very much.

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.