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Porch Group, Inc.
2/11/2026
Good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for participating in Porch Group's fourth quarter 2025 conference call. Today, we issued our earnings release and filed our related form 8K with SEC. The press release can be found on our investor relations website at ir.porchgroup.com. I would like to take a moment to review the company's safe harbor statement within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, which provides important cautions regarding forward-looking statements. Today's discussion, including responses to your questions, reflect management's views as of today, February 11, 2026. We do not undertake any obligations to update or revise this information. Additionally, we will make forward-looking statements about our future financial or business performance or conditions, business strategy and plans. These statements are subject to risk and uncertainties, which could cause our actual results to differ materially from these forward-looking statements. Please refer to the information on this slide and in our SEC filings for important disclaimers. We will reference both GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures on today's call. Please refer to today's press release and these slides, both available on our website for reconciliations for non-GAAP measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures discussed during this call. As a reminder, this webcast will be available for replay along with the presentation after this call on the company's website at ir.porchgroup.com. So joining me here today are Matt Ehrlichman, Porch's CEO, Chairman and Founder, John Tabak, Porch's CFO, and Matthew Nagel, Porch's COO. With that, I will turn the call over to Matt for his key updates.
All right. Good afternoon, everybody. Thank you for joining us. Q4 capped a transformational year for Porch. Throughout 2025, we delivered results ahead of expectations and made meaningful progress toward building a simpler, higher margin fee and commission-based business. Full year 2025 adjusted EBITDA ended at $77 million, an 11 times increase over 2024. This translated into $65 million in port shareholder interest cashflow from operations for the year. Profitability was a highlight, but 2025 was also about positioning the company for durable, profitable growth. Statutory surplus at the reciprocal grew approximately $50 million. Incremental value creation on top of our adjusted EBITDA. And it ended 2025 almost 50% higher than 2024. We strengthened the top of the funnel, more than doubling the number of active agencies and nearly tripling quote volumes year over year. With some actions we put into market, we saw new policyholder conversion rates grow substantially at the tail end of 2025 and continue into 2026. With this foundation in place, we're confident in delivering against our 2026 plan, $600 million in organic reciprocal written premium, an implied 25% growth rate, and $100 million in adjusted EBITDA. We positioned the business for rapid premium growth through multiple levers, growing agency and quote volumes, pricing adjustments and agency incentives to increase conversion rates, and the launch of porch insurance, which went live for all Texas agents at the start of 2026. So Q4 performance was strong with every metric better than expectation, consistent with the progress we've seen really all year. Reciprocal written premium or RWP was $126 million. Revenue was $112 million. Q4 gross profit was $91 million, resulting in an 81% gross margin. Q4 adjusted EBITDA was $23 million, a 21% margin. Cash use and operations was negative $5.5 million, due to the timing of our interest payments and working capital. For the full year, cash flow from operations was a positive $65.4 million, reflecting the strong cash generated nature of the model. We continue to deliver predictable high margin results for port shareholders. There are three components to growing our insurance premiums, statutory surplus, which dictates the capacity to scale, Quote volume, which is our top of the funnel and sets the growth potential, and then conversion rate, which dictates then the volume of new policies. In the second half of last year, we prioritized growing statutory surplus at the reciprocal faster than planned, and we're certainly pleased with the outcome. Statutory surplus grew again in Q4, despite a decline in the port stock price in the quarter. For the year, stat surplus rose 47%, and as a result, we have substantial capacity, well in excess of what is needed to support our 2026 RWP target. We achieved meaningful gains in both capacity and top of funnel activity throughout 2025. Late in the year, we began realizing gains in conversion rates as well. Matthew will outline these actions in our go-forward plans later in the call, but let me just say momentum is building. Premiums from new business in November increased 61% versus the January through October 2025 monthly average. December new business premiums accelerated further, rising 104% versus that same baseline. Next, Porsche Insurance. Our new homeowners insurance product was fully rolled out in Texas at the start of January, giving agents a product they can sell alongside HOA. Offering now a second product that is unique and higher end will further improve conversion rates. Port insurance is an important part of our long-term strategy as it's better for homeowners, better for agents, the reciprocal, and therefore us. For policyholders, included in the offering is a full home warranty and other coverages, as well as four hours of movers and other offerings for home buyers. Agents make more money when they sell porch insurance, and for the reciprocal, more margin is created via surplus contribution that customers pay. Overall, we are not seeing any changes in competition that impacts our quote volumes or conversion rates, and we remain confident in our ability to deliver on our organic RWP target this year. Our strategy, which gives us a structural advantage in underwriting, creates durable advantages for Porch. We spent years building the data, software, and inspection ecosystem needed to understand homes better than anyone in the market. That shows up in how we select risk, how we price it, and ultimately in the loss ratios we deliver. HOA and other reciprocal have routinely produced top tier underwriting results. with loss ratios improving even through inflation and weather pressure. It's not luck. It's a result of advantaged risk assessment with our home factors data, which provides insight into 90% of U.S. homes, suited discipline underwriting, winning low-risk customers, and avoiding bad ones. 2025 proved this point. The reciprocal saw full-year gross loss ratios of 27%, an attritional loss ratio of just 17%. While 2023 and 2024 were historically bad weather years, 2025 was more of a normal weather year in Texas. You can really see the gains we've created in the yellow line here on this chart, which highlights the attritional loss ratio, which includes all claims outside of catastrophic weather. These exceptional industry leading results creates more margin in the system, part of which flows to surplus at the reciprocal to support future growth and part of which flows to Porch Group and our shareholders. It's a durable advantage and it's only getting stronger. With that, let's take a look at how this margin advantage supports the surplus at the reciprocal. We've previously shared the reciprocal's statutory surplus combined with non-admitted assets, which ended the year at $289 million. This is the total capital base at the reciprocal and includes the full value of the 18.3 million Porch Group shares it owns. We think this is an important number as it highlights the amount of opportunity we have ahead to scale premium without the capital base growing further. In fact, even after a decline in the stock price after Q3 earnings, this capital could still support approximately $1.5 billion of premiums as we look ahead. A component of this number is the statutory surplus, where there's a cap on the value of a single equity and is used on a quarter to quarter basis to ensure insurance companies are healthy and appropriately capitalized to support its premium. As you can see from this chart in blue, because of the cap value of the shares, statutory surplus does not move up or down meaningfully based on the share price volatility. The reciprocal ended the year with $155 million of statutory surplus up further from Q3 and again up $49 million year over year. This value created across the system is incremental to the $77 million of adjusted EBITDA produced at Porch Group. So the takeaway, without the reciprocal growing its statutory surplus any further, It can support approximately $780 million of premium at our five to one or better premium to stat surplus rule of thumb. This is without the reciprocal selling any shares. And as you can see, short-term stock price volatility won't impede our plans. I'll now turn it over to Sean to cover our financial results.
Thank you, Matt. And good afternoon, everyone. Before we dive into the results, I'll summarize the key financial highlights for Q4 and the full year. One, we delivered a strong Q4, outperforming expectations across each metric. We ended the year with adjusted EBITDA of $76.6 million, an 11-fold increase over the prior year. We are quite pleased with this outcome. Two, insurance services, RWP, and revenue exceeded expectations driven by growth in total customers, including strong performance with new customer additions. As discussed previously in Q4, we updated new customer pricing and agency incentives to accelerate premium. These actions increased the new customer quote conversion rate. Number three, reciprocal surplus finished the year in a strong position with $289 million of surplus combined with non-admitted assets and $155 million of statutory surplus. Statutory surplus grew again quarter over quarter and increased $49.4 million from the beginning of 2025. We're pleased with this performance because it positions us to scale RWP effectively. And finally, number four, looking ahead to 2026, we are accelerating toward our RWP target of $600 million. This is largely driven by an increase in new customer additions, driven by the quote and conversion rate increases we are already seeing. Similar to Matt's overview, my comments will address performance of the port shareholder interest, since generating cash for port shareholders remains our ultimate goal. Under GAAP, we consolidate the reciprocal exchange financials, which are available in the press release and our take K when it is filed. Now let's dive into Q4 results. Q4 2025 Port Shareholder Interest Revenue was $112.3 million, with insurance services generating 67%, followed by software and data at 20%, with the balance from consumer services. Associated gross profit was $91.4 million with an 81% gross margin led by our insurance services segment, which had an 86% gross margin. Adjusted EBITDA of $23.5 million was ahead of expectations driven by insurance services, which delivered a 38% adjusted EBITDA margin. Q4 adjusted EBITDA declined year over year And that was due to the seasonality of the legacy carrier model when we owned HOA, which favored Q4. As a reminder, full-year adjusted EBITDA increased 11-fold year over year. Now let's move a little deeper into the segment results, starting with insurance services. In the quarter, RWP was $125.7 million, ahead of expectations driven by new customer additions. As a reminder, RWP is typically higher in Q2 and Q3 as home buying activity drives new and renewal policies. Typically, the seasonal decline from Q3 to Q4 is much greater, but this year was offset by the acceleration and execution of stronger than expected customer additions Matt mentioned previously. Insurance services revenue was $75.7 million, or 60% of RWP. Revenue comes from four sources, commissions based on RWP, policy fees based on policies written, the premium from the captive, and lead fees from third-party agencies. Segment gross profit was $65.1 million, with a gross margin of 86%. Segment adjusted EBITDA was $29 million, a margin of 38%. Adjusted EBITDA as a percent of RWP was 23%. 465 basis points higher than Q3 and primarily driven by the higher revenue. We held operating expenses flat quarter over quarter, producing strong incremental margins. Shifting now to software and data. As a reminder, weak housing conditions impact transaction volumes for companies we serve and therefore our results. Most of our software businesses charge per transaction, so we are positioned to benefit from an increase in housing conditions. Segment revenue was $22.3 million, a 3% increase over the prior year driven by price increases. Gross profit was $14.4 million, a 65% gross margin, which is a 580 basis point decline over the prior year, driven by $2.1 million of incremental and non-recurring cost of revenue related to software expense in Q4, which did not impact adjusted EBITDA. Adjusted EBITDA was $3.7 million. This includes the investments we've discussed around product innovation in our software businesses, which position us well to benefit from a housing market recovery, and in our home factors go-to-market organization. Shifting to consumer services, which is also impacted by the weak housing conditions, Revenue was $16.6 million, a 2% increase over the prior year. Gross profit was $14.2 million, an 85% gross margin, which is a 450 basis point increase over the prior year. Adjusted EBITDA for this segment was $1 million. Now let's take a step back and review our financial results in our first year under the reciprocal operating model. I think we can all agree it's been a tremendous and breakout year for Porch. Full year 2025 porch shareholder interest revenue was $418.9 million, with insurance services generating 64%, followed by software and data at 22%, with the balance from consumer services. Associated gross profit was $343.9 million, an 82% gross margin, and a 74% increase over GAAP gross profit in the prior year. 2025 corporate expenses of $46.8 million decreased $5.5 million from the prior year. 2025 adjusted EBITDA was $76.6 million, an 11-fold increase over the prior year. Adjusted EBITDA margin was 18%. The adjusted EBITDA was high quality with an 85% conversion to cash provided by operating activities for port shareholders. which was $65.4 million and includes $29 million in cash used for interest payments on debt. Moving on to the balance sheet. In 2025, we increased our cash position while also decreasing our debt. We closed the year with Porch Cash Plus investments of $121.2 million, a $31.3 million increase from the beginning of the year, driven by $65.4 million in Porch shareholder interest cash flow from operations, and partially offset by $17.2 million, which was used to reduce our debt. Our 2026 notes have a remaining balance of $7.8 million, which we expect to settle at maturity on September 15, 2026, with cash from the balance sheet. In Q4, cash flow used in operations for port shareholders was $5.5 million, as the adjusted EBITDA was offset primarily by the $17 million coupon on our convertible notes, which is paid twice per year, in Q4 and Q2, and working capital changes. Additionally, our board of directors has authorized a $2.5 million share repurchase program, which is the maximum amount permitted under our 2028 indenture. Lastly, shifting to our 2026 guidance for Port Shareholder Interest, underpinning our annual financial guidance is the expectation that we deliver $600 million of organic RWP, representing 25% year-over-year growth. For 2026 Port Shareholder Interest Guidance, we are starting the year with revenue growth expectations of 13% to 17%, resulting in a range of $475 million to $490 million. We assume associated gross margin of 81% to 82%, consistent with 2025, resulting in a gross profit range of $385 million to $400 million. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be between $98 million to $105 million, representing a margin of approximately 21%. From a modeling standpoint, we expect insurance services revenue growth north of 20% year over year, with the software and data and consumer services segments expected to grow modestly, given our assumption that U.S. housing activity remains at trough-like levels in 2026. As a reminder of the framework we shared at our 2024 Investor Day, the MBA had initially projected a 20% rise in home purchases from 2024 to 2026. However, their latest forecast suggests only a modest 3% increase. While the soft U.S. housing conditions are persisting longer than expected, our insurance services division is more than offsetting that market headwind. One final modeling point relates to the cadence of adjusted EBITDA in 2026. While Q1 revenue and RWP are expected to be higher versus the prior year, we currently expect adjusted EBITDA to be modestly lower year over year due to a tough comparison with the legacy captive reinsurance terms. Beyond that, we expect adjusted EBITDA to sequentially improve throughout the remainder of the year in addition to an accelerating top-line growth rate. And now I'll hand over to Matthew to provide a strategic update and KPI review.
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