Ranger Oil Corporation

Good day and welcome to the Ranger Oil Corporation third quarter 2022 earnings conference call. All participants will be in a listen-only mode. Should you need assistance, please signal a conference specialist by pressing the star key followed by zero. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. To ask a question, you may press star then one on a touch-tone phone. To withdraw your question, please press star then two. Please note, this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Ranger's Senior Vice President and CFO, Rusty Kelly. Please go ahead.

Good morning. Thanks for dialing in today for our third quarter conference call. With me this morning is our CEO, Darren Hinke, and our COO, Julia Gwaltney. Please note that we will discuss certain non-GAAP measures. Definitions and reconciliations of these measures to the most comparable gap measures are provided in our news release and earnings presentation, which can both be found at www.rangeroil.com. Our comments today will also contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of federal securities laws. These statements are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to be materially different from those forward-looking statements. including those identified in the risk factors in our annual report on Form 10-K and quarterly reports on Form 10-Q. I'll now hand it over to Darren.

Thanks, Rusty, and welcome, everyone. Yesterday, we published our third quarter results along with an updated slide deck. 2022 is proving to be another great year for Ranger. We continue to deliver on our key objectives this year, operationally, financially and strategically. Our company has been dramatically transformed over the last two years. We've strengthened our balance sheet, materially extended our inventory through highly accretive acquisitions. We've grown organically through the drill bit and returned significant cash back to shareholders. Ranger truly is doing it all. Our company differentiates itself from its peers as we have the highest margins in the business. thanks to our low-cost structure and the premium pricing our products receive in the Eagleford. We have an estimated 20-year inventory of high return development opportunities. We are creating value on a per share basis. Since the fourth quarter of last year, Ranger has more than doubled operating cash flow per share, reduced leverage by nearly 45%, and increased production per debt-adjusted share at a 20% compound annual growth rate. We are buying back shares, paying a dividend, reducing leverage, and growing through both accretive acquisitions and the drill bit. Ranger certainly has all the right ingredients for premium valuation. I would like to now summarize our operational, financial, and strategic accomplishments. Our operating team delivered during a very challenging macro environment for our industry, and our third quarter results were exceptional. Our sales volumes again topped the high end of guidance for the quarter, coming in at 42,600 barrels of oil equivalent per day. Over the course of the year, we increased our total sales guidance nearly 4% relative to our March guidance, and expect to deliver year-over-year oil equivalent sales growth of 48%. Total drilling and completion capital of $151.9 million stayed inside the guidance range, even with $3.4 million associated with accelerated timing. Capital discipline was paramount to ensure that we funded our best projects while not overspending or allowing inflation to erode our cash margins. Our operating team maintained unprecedented flexibility and found creative ways to simply get the job done. We previously announced the addition of a third operated rig through year-end. When reviewing the best uses for cash, the economics of the third rig are very compelling, especially considering the average expected well-level rate of returns year-to-date are exceeding 100% at strip prices. This rig will provide strong momentum into 2023, and we may choose to continue development with a third rig next year if it is the best investment for our shareholders. We have an exceptional team at Ranger, focused squarely on continuous improvement. Whether it's through drilling longer laterals, optimizing completion efficiencies, or negotiating creative land deals, our team's operating performance in the Eagleford is among the best in the business. We are able to identify and capture synergies that others simply cannot. Next, I'd like to talk about our admirable financial results. Because of our solid operating performance, we've been able to deliver on our key financial objectives. Our pro forma adjusted free cash flow was 58 million, and we had net income of 228 million. Adjusted EBITDAX was 209 million. Our framework to return cash to shareholders is well-defined, having returned approximately $80 million to shareholders since mid-May. Repurchases make up about 5% of our total shares outstanding, more than 2 million shares. We expect to continue buying our shares, having utilized only about one half of our $140 million authorization. We see repurchasing our shares today as a very compelling investment. Dividends are also an important component of our cash return framework. Our third quarter dividend of 7.5 cents per share will be paid on November 28 to shareholders of record as of November 16. Our balance sheet has also continued to strengthen. Our leverage ratio was 0.75 times as of quarter end, more than half a turn lower than the beginning of this year. We plan to maintain capital discipline, ensuring our capital is allocated to our highest return opportunities. Our enviable balance sheet is the best risk management tool we have and puts us in a good position to weather future commodity price cycles. The third and final bucket to discuss today is our strategic highlights. Ranger is executing five key value creation strategies, those being reducing leverage purchasing shares, paying dividends, growing organically, and increasing scale through accretive acquisitions. The $139 million in bolt-ons we've closed this year provide a solid runway, adding 2,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day of low-decline production, along with 20,000 net acres in over 60 estimated gross high-return drilling locations, more than replacing the well count we will drill this year. Importantly, They were funded substantially through cash flow. We are screening nearly every available acquisition opportunity in the Eagleford and selectively competing for those deals that meet our strict criteria, where we can lower costs, improve cycle times, and generate incremental free cash, all while maintaining our amiable balance sheet. Our strategy today is proven, and our execution of the business plan has been very consistent. Because of the quality of both our team and our assets, we can generate attractive cash on cash returns while growing the business through high return investments and smart strategic M&A to create future value, all while returning significant cash to shareholders and improving our per share metrics. Before closing out our remarks, let me provide some early thoughts on 2023. First, be assured that our strategy to create value will remain unchanged. We are confident that we have the key ingredients to earn a premium valuation in the market today. Second, our recent decision to keep a third operated rig running through year-end will provide strong momentum for us in 2023. We have the flexibility to keep this rig past year-end and will make that decision late this year. And lastly, We look to 2023 with great confidence. We have the inventory, the team, and the right business strategy to create value, and we intend to deliver. That concludes our prepared remarks today, and we are happy to take your questions. Operator?

We will now begin the question and answer session. To ask a question, you may press star then one on your touchtone phone. If you are using a speakerphone, Please pick up your handset before pressing the keys. If at any time your question has been addressed and you would like to withdraw your question, please press star, then two. At this time, we will pause momentarily to assemble our roster. The first question today comes from Neil Damon with Truist Securities. Please go ahead.

Thanks for the time. My first question is on M&A specifically. I usually don't ask about specific or other company deals, but I'm just hoping maybe you all can share your thoughts on today's Enzyme deal, given to me the size looks quite similar to you all, and maybe in addition to that, your thoughts on Eagleford M&A opportunities in general.

Thank you, Neil. Great question. You know, when we look at Marathon's disclosures, boy, what a great deal for Marathon and for Ensign. You know, per those disclosures, Ensign is predicted to have 2023 EBITDA of about $900 million, which is basically the same number as consensus has for Ranger for 2023. They also show 130,000 acres and 600 future locations. You know, Ranger has about 160,000 acres and about 1,000 future locations. The inside position's a little deeper, a little gassier position. It'll likely be a little more expensive to develop than Ranger's, and we'll have a materially lower oil cut as well. But regardless, it's a great deal for Marathon, and congrats to them for getting the deal done. Your second question there relative to future M&A in the Eagleford, we've seen a strong pipeline, an increasing pipeline of opportunities this year. And we've been active, as we said, really trying to look at each and every deal that takes place in the Eagleford. We will remain steadfastly focused on the Eagleford. And when we think about M&A, scale equals relevance today, and it's a pathway to higher multiples. We intend to look at everything, and the key criteria that we will judge future Eagleford opportunities will be, first and foremost, strategic fit. We're looking at operational efficiencies as well as G&A efficiencies. We're going to look at accretion to value, both on a cash flow per share basis and an NAV basis. We're also going to judge the merits based on the attractiveness of the opportunity relative to rangers enterprise value in concert with its NAV. And least but definitely very important is maintaining, least but not last, maintaining a strong balance sheet. You know, we leverage ratio today is 0.75 times. And when we did the Lone Star deal, we got up to one and a half times with line of sight of getting down below one times in a few quarters. And that's, as we think about Larger strategic opportunities, we don't want to go above one and a half times, and we want to have that line of sight to getting back below one times in a few quarters.

Great details. And then just maybe secondly, maybe talk a little bit on spending, if you will. Specifically, it looked like you slightly stepped up the 22 kepex spend, but I'm wondering, I guess my question around that is how do you anticipate, without having full 23, God, I know you talked about potentially $50,000 plus a day next year. Could you just talk about your thoughts on boosting that CapEx and what it should imply for 23?

Yeah, so focusing first on the midpoint of our guidance for fourth quarter CapEx is $160 million. And about $30 million of that is associated with the addition of the third rig. And an incremental $25 million is associated with additional working interest that we've acquired here in the fourth quarter, as well as some non-affectivity that's taking place with a large high-quality operator just off our lease lines. So about $55 million of the $160 million is associated with additional activity or additional interest in our wells. So if you back that out, our fourth quarter guide would have been about $105 million which is right in line with what we had expected back in the third quarter. Relative to, yeah, I think just to add on, as we look forward to 2023, we're in an enviable position where we are going to deliver double-digit production growth next year, whether we run two rigs and we stay in the low teens on that production growth or we stick with the three-rig program, we'll have high teens production growth year over year. And as we said, we will break 50,000 BOE per day sometime in the first half of the year, of course, depending upon that cadence.

Great details. Thanks, Jared. Yeah, thank you, Neil.

The next question comes from Michael Furrow with Johnson Rice. Please go ahead.

Hi, good morning, and thanks for taking my questions.

Good morning, Michael.

I'd just like to ask a question about the balance between, you know, accretive A&D and then share repurchases. I appreciate slide seven. I think it illustrates the benefit of share repurchases very clearly where we've seen operating cash flow increase on a per share basis despite the commodity actually going down quarter to quarter. So my question is, how does Ranger balance these buyback opportunities versus accretive A&D?

Yeah, you know, at the time we're looking at A&D opportunities, you know, we're also evaluating all the other opportunities for investment of that incremental free cash flow. And it really is, it all comes back to what's the greatest return, what's the greatest investment for our shareholder. You know, we've been blessed with the free cash flow this year to, you know, reduce leverage, buy back shares, pay a dividend, and also do a significant amount of A&D as well as grow organically. So hopefully next year will be comparable.

Great. That's helpful. So I guess my next question kind of piggybacks off that in terms of doing what's greatest for the shareholders. In regard to running that third rig into 2023 with individual well-level rates of return over 100%, your leverage is down, you know, three-quarters of a turn.

uh got a strong hedge book it almost seems like a no-brainer to continue running it into 2023 so my question is is what would be some things or a rationale to to decide not to run that rig into 2023 yeah you know i think there's a lot of macro things going on in the world right now we have midterm elections coming up next week uh recession likely on the coming down the path and in you know the last two years have taught us uh if anything that uh Being able to see the future is not always clear, and we've seen some very low commodity price and some pretty vicious cycles in the commodity price sector. So we intend to watch the commodity prices, watch inflation, and look at other strategic M&A opportunities, and we can make this decision later in the year, and we're going to keep our flexibility open as long as we possibly can on making that decision.

Great, that makes sense. It's always good to have some flexibility, especially these days. I appreciate it, guys. Yeah, thank you, Michael.

As a reminder, if you would like to ask a question, please press star then 1 to enter the question queue. The next question comes from Nicholas Pope with Seaport Global. Please go ahead.

Morning, everyone.

Good morning, Nick. How are you today?

Great. I was hoping you guys could talk a little bit about the future locations that you all laid out. I think you all say 750 Eagleford locations. And as you kind of look at that central area, I'm assuming the bulk of that is in the central area. I guess what risks remain with those locations, and are there kind of areas within that footprint that you need to drill to get more comfortable with? with kind of the risk profile? I guess I'm trying to understand the 750 and kind of what stage all that's at right now.

Yeah, so our confidence level on the 750 locations is very high, Nick. It's only a single landing zone. It's roughly 450 to 500 foot well spacing. The acreage is all highly delineated, so very, very low risk on those 750 locations. And then, in fact, If you look at what some of the folks off our lease lines are drilling wells at 300, 350-foot spacing, one could argue that's really a pretty conservative number.

Helpful. And the distribution of the expectation of well returns, are things fairly consistent across that entire central area? How wide is the distribution on that kind of expectation?

You know, it certainly depends upon commodity price. You know, in the up-dip portion, you know, we're very, in the Blackwell area, we're very high oil cut, and economics look great today, lower drilling costs, and then as you get further down-dip, you get gassier, and your drilling costs go up a touch, but, you know, the gas prices we've seen over the last year, that's very attractive as well. So it's, you know, we have a creaming curve that we update regularly internally looking at strip pricing and other prices and and that's how we choose you know we're always choosing our best inventory our best putting our best foot first relative to what we drill going forward and and that changes materially you know with technology as well as technology on drilling and how fast we can drill them how cheap we can drill them as well as the biggest impact is likely commodity prices got it that's helpful and then i just one cleanup item

On the financial side, now that you're paying dividends, the Class B shares, those are non-economic interest. They don't receive dividends. Is that correct?

For all intents and purposes, they do. They're given distributions technically, but they do receive the equivalent of the dividends.

Got it. All right. That's all I had. Thanks, guys.

Yeah, thank you, Nick.

The next question comes from Davis Petros with RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Good morning, y'all. Just one from me, since most of the other questions have already been asked. But LOE last quarter ticked up a bit, and then I think y'all quoted it was just added work over activity given the returns at current prices, and then kind of the 4Q guide implies a step down again. Can you just kind of talk about what you're seeing on the inflation front in terms of kind of on the operating cost side as well as the capital cost side going into year end and then how maybe your preliminary thoughts into 2023 are looking at at this point.

Yes, this is Julia. On the operating expense side, we've been largely been able to manage the ongoing inflationary pressures largely coming from fuel and labor costs through increased efficiency, putting more of our SWD Our water on pipe, along with some of the increase in cost we've seen, was due to picking up. We've tripled our work over activity, which is highly accretive, very valuable projects that we do that really drive improving production volumes. So when you see the rate decline a little bit on that LOE coming into fourth quarter, it's really driven by the growth in production volumes more than a change in expense. Predicting the future on inflation is incredibly challenging these days, so I'm hesitant to make a lot of predictions. We do continue to see some, you know, commodity price increases. We continue to battle that and fight that with improving efficiency, improving our, you know, efficiency on the drilling rigs, completion, you know, making more use of our time and equipment when it's on location.

I guess pressing a little bit kind of on the... Yeah, it does. Kind of pressing a little bit on that answer, though. On the capital cost side, we've been hearing from some peers there's maybe some early signs inflation may be tempering for some kind of bigger line items. Are you all experiencing any of that or kind of any color on that?

Yeah, I would agree. The rate of change quarter over quarter definitely has improved from what we saw in the early part of 2022, particularly You know it's it has leveled off and there still is like trickling in. I would call it more of inflationary pressures and you know we're hearing a similar message coming into 2023 that will see increases further in Q1, but then that it's likely going to taper off. But I mean, you know, to be transparent, we heard similar messages going into 2022 you know, we as an industry realize pretty heavy pressures coming through the early half of 2022. So, yeah, I think we'll just continue to navigate that and watch really closely, work very closely with our partners. We work very closely with our service partners and have great relationships. We want them to be sustainable as well as a continuing, ongoing, very viable project base for ourselves. So that's something we value very closely and We'll continue to monitor that and understand exactly what the market conditions are.

Got it. And one last one for me. The two rigs you're running and then the third one you just recently picked up, will any of those three be up for kind of new contracts into next year, or are they locked into rates all the way through next year already?

So we have one that is on a two-year contract right now, and we have two that are on shorter-term contracts.

Got it. Okay. Appreciate the time. Thank you, Davis.

This concludes our question and answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Darren Henke for any closing remarks.

Thank you, Betsy. First and foremost, I want to give a big shout out to all of our staff for the hard work and dedication, what they deliver for Ranger each and every day. Ranger has a demonstrated record of creating shareholder value both organically and through M&A. We're generating free cash to reduce leverage, buy back shares, pay a dividend, grow organically, and execute on accretive acquisitions. We're really excited about 2023. Thank you for joining our call today. Take care.

The conference is now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.