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spk25: Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Royalty Pharma Q4 2023 earnings conference call. I would like to now turn the conference over to George Grofick, Senior Vice President, Head of Investor Relations and Communications. Please go ahead.
spk09: Thank you and good morning and good afternoon to everyone on the call. Thank you for joining
spk10: us to review Royalty Pharma's fourth quarter and full year 2023 results. You can find the press release with our earnings results and slides that's called on the investors page of our website at royaltypharma.com. Moving to slide three, I would like to remind you that information presented in this call contains forward-looking statements that involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause actual results and differ materially from these statements. I refer you to our 10K on file with the SEC for description of these risks. All forward-looking statements are based on information currently available to Royalty Pharma and we assume no obligation to update any such forward-looking statements. Non-GAAP liquidity measures will be used to help you understand our financial performance. The reconciliation of these measures to our GAAP financials are provided in the earnings press release available on our website. And with that, please advance to slide four. Our speakers on the call today are Pablo Legareta, Founder and Chief Executive Officer, Chris Hite, EVP Vice Chairman, Marshall Yuris, EVP Head of Research and Investment and Terry Coyne, EVP Chief Financial Officer. Pablo will discuss the key highlights, Chris will then provide more detail in our transaction pipeline, after which Marshall will give a portfolio update. Next, Terry will review the financials and following concluding remarks from Pablo, we will hold a Q&A session. And with that, I'd like to turn the call over to Pablo.
spk27: Thank you, George, and welcome to everyone on the call. I am delighted to report another successful year of execution against our vision to be the leading partner funding innovation in life sciences. I am very proud of our achievements in 2023, which are summarized on slide six. We maintained our track record of strong business momentum with excellent financial performance and significant enhancement of our portfolio. In terms of the financials, we delivered 9% growth in portfolio receipts, our top line, with royalty receipts up 8%. As Terry will discuss later, we have refined and simplified the presentation of our non-GAAP measures to improve analysis and tracking our financial performance. In addition, in what we view as a big step towards further simplifying the analysis of Royal Deferment for current and future investors, we're also posting supplemental financial information to our website, which brings together in one place all of the relevant financial data for our business, including a detailed product build and consensus forecasts. During the year, we added royalties on eight therapies, including incremental royalties on the exciting blockbuster therapy, Abrasde. We also saw a number of positive clinical and regulatory events for portfolio assets. In terms of capital allocation, 2023 was very strong with four billion in announced transactions and 2.2 billion in actual cash deployed. Notably, it was our highest ever year for synthetic royalty transactions. We also announced a one billion buyback program earlier in the year because of the disconnect we see in the share price from our strong fundamental outlook. Lastly, we're reflecting the strong momentum in our business in our 2024 full-year guidance. We expect portfolio receipts to be between 2.6 and 2.7 billion based on expected underlying growth from our portfolio of between five and 9%, consistent with our standard practice. Our guidance is based on our current portfolio and does not include the benefit of any future transactions. Slide seven shows our strong growth in royalty receipts in the fourth quarter and for the full year. As I noted earlier, we delivered 8% growth in royalty receipts in 2023, which includes 10% growth in the fourth quarter. This speaks to the excellent momentum of our diversified portfolio of more than 35 approved products. In addition to our strong growth, slide eight illustrates that we have significantly broadened our portfolio through the approximate 13 billion of transactions we have announced since 2020. To put this in perspective, at the time of our IPO, we guided to greater than 7 billion in royalty acquisitions through 2025. So we have exceeded this figure by a substantial margin. Over the period, we have acquired royalties on 34 unique therapies, of which 17 are either currently or projected to be blockbusters, and nearly two-thirds were approved at the time of acquisition. These new royalties are expected to add approximately 1.2 billion to our top line in 2025, using consensus estimates. The ability to continue to expand the portfolio with attractive long-duration royalties is another unique feature of our business model and underscores my high level of confidence in royalty farmers' prospects. With that, I will hand it over to Chris to update you on our transaction pipeline.
spk07: Thanks, Pablo. Slide 10 really explains the excitement we have for our market. 2023 saw very strong momentum for the royalty market with 7.4 billion of announced transactions. Not only did this represent the strongest year ever for royalty funding, but the dollar value was over 12 times that in 2015, and the long-term upward trend is visible, despite some -to-year volatility. What this tells us is that royalties are becoming a core funding mechanism for the biopharma industry. Importantly, we maintain our leading share of this market in 2023 with a 53% market share. For comparison, the number two royalty buyer has only a 13% market share in 2023. Slide 11 drills down deeper into our transaction funnel. As you can see here, we were incredibly busy and reviewed more than 400 potential royalty transactions. This resulted in 126 CDAs signed, 93 in-depth reviews, and 47 proposals submitted. We continue to be very financially disciplined in our approach as we executed only seven transactions or just 2% of our initial reviews. Slide 12 illustrates the strong underlying trends in our transaction funnel, not just in 2023, but over a multi-year period. On the left-hand side, the number of in-depth reviews we conducted has more than doubled since 2019, which was the year prior to us going public. We view this as an important data point, as this is when our team starts to invest a significant amount of time reviewing opportunities. The expansion in this number speaks to the growing number of quality opportunities we're seeing. On the right-hand side, you can see that the transaction value reached 4 billion in 2023, which is about double what we achieved in 2019. Looking ahead, we're confident we can scale up our capital deployment over time while maintaining a high-quality bar and attractive returns. Slide 13 shows the strong growth in synthetic royalty transactions since last year. We pioneered this innovative solution in which we create new royalties as a non-dilutive funding solution for our partners. Historically, biopharma funding has been dominated by equity, licensing deals, and debt. Synthetic royalties have been a small part, just 3% of the overall funding picture over the last five years. However, we strongly believe that synthetic royalties offer an attractive win-win approach to our partners. Consequently, our expectation is that they will be a fast-growing business opportunity in the coming years. This is backed up by our ongoing partnership discussions where we now see that synthetic royalties are being routinely discussed at the board level and C-suites as a potential funding modality. Consistent with this growing opportunity, we announced synthetic royalty transactions of nearly $800 million in 2023, which represents a doubling since the year of our IPO. We see this as just the start of a really important trend. And with that, I'll hand it over to Marshall.
spk02: Thanks, Chris. As Pablo noted, not only did we deploy substantial capital to enhance our portfolio in 2023, but we saw a number of positive clinical and regulatory events for therapies in our portfolio. In addition, we benefited from strong in-market performance for many of our recent portfolio acquisitions. Slide 15 shows the performance of our transactions since 2020. The graphic on the left-hand side shows that the consensus 2025 sales estimates from the majority of our recent investments has increased significantly. Over half have seen more than 20% increases in consensus sales and a couple of increased by more than 50%, notably EBRISD, on which we acquired incremental royalties in 2023. The graphic on the right-hand side highlights that the majority of our recent development stage investments have delivered positive clinical or regulatory milestones. The takeaway is that our team has a strong track record of identifying attractive commercial and development stage opportunities driven by our disciplined and time-tested approach. Expanding on our development stage portfolio, we're very excited about several notable successes over the past year. Slide 16 lists six important recent highlights from our portfolio, including the positive phase three results from cytokinetics, cardiovascular drug, Gaffey-Campden, and the $13 billion acquisition of Coruna by Bristol-Meyers Squibb to gain CARXT for schizophrenia, where we have a royalty. Also, last week Novartis announced a $3 billion acquisition of Morphosis, where we have a royalty on the LEAD program collaborative, $300 million of development funding bonds, where we will receive a 2.2X return over time, as well as approximately $100 million of Morphosis equity. Each of these development stage therapies has the potential to be an important contributor to our long-term growth and returns, and we have a number of exciting potential upcoming milestones for our portfolio in 2024 and beyond. Lastly, I should note that we made a small but exciting investment in Emilex's Echo Pypam in January, which is potentially the first drug specifically developed for Tourette syndrome. With that, I'll hand over to Terry.
spk21: Thanks, Marshall. Let's move to slide 18. You will have seen from our press release today that we have made changes to our financial presentation in
spk18: order to enhance
spk21: transparency and disclosures for investors and to better reflect the nature of our cash flows. First, as we previously announced on January 8th, we have replaced adjusted cash receipts with portfolio receipts. While this key performance metric sums to the same amount of adjusted cash receipts, the change will facilitate increased transparency into the economics of individual royalties, as these will now be
spk00: reported net
spk21: of legacy non-controlling interest. Additionally, portfolio receipts will be broken down into two subcategories, namely royalty receipts and milestone and other contractual receipts. This new disclosure is intended to provide greater clarity on the underlying trends in our royalty portfolio versus other contractual payments, which may be more variable over time. Second, to better reflect our cash flows, we are introducing a non-GAAP liquidity measure, portfolio cash flow, along with a new performance metric, capital deployment. We believe these new measures will help focus investors on the simplicity of our business model and the cash inflows and cash outflows of our business. Finally, you should note that our long-term outlook is unchanged by this new presentation. All guidance statements, which we made for adjusted cash receipts, now apply to portfolio receipts. In other words, we expect a compounded annual growth rate in portfolio receipts of between 11% to 14% over 2020 to 2025, and of 10% or more from 2020 to 2030. In totality,
spk13: we believe
spk21: these changes provide greater insight into our business and are more aligned with how we manage our business. It should be noted that these changes have been discussed with the SEC. Slide 19 provides more granular detail on our non-GAAP liquidity measures and performance metrics. As I just noted, the calculation of portfolio receipts is identical to the previous adjusted cash receipt, but the new disclosures provide greater transparency into the underlying economics and trends within our portfolio. Adjusted EBITDA is unchanged at a key non-GAAP liquidity measure. Portfolio cash flow, another key non-GAAP liquidity measure is calculated as adjusted EBITDA less net interest paid. It replaces adjusted cash flow and measures substantially all cash generated by the business. The primary difference between portfolio cash flow and adjusted cash flow is the exclusion of upfront development stage payments and milestones, which are now included in capital deployment. Capital deployment measures substantially all cash outflows related to our investment activity in a single line. It's an aggregate amount which reflects cash payments for new and previously announced transactions as opposed to announced transaction value, which may also include milestones to be paid in future periods. We include a detailed breakdown of capital deployment and our
spk17: earnings on page four.
spk21: Management thinks about the ability to pursue our strategy. We look at portfolio receipts as the cash inflows. We subtract cash expenses to arrive at portfolio cash flow and we deploy the vast majority of that capital in attractive royalties to drive future value creation and growth. The virtuous cycle of our business is critical to understanding how we generate long-term value. Following these updates, we will no longer report adjusted cash receipts or adjusted cash flow. We have posted to our website the historical financials under this new framework dating back to 2019. We are also providing significant additional information on the investor section of our website, including key royalty terms, consensus estimates for key products, and NCI byproduct to assist in your modeling. Let's now move on to the financials, starting with our full year top line performance on slide 20. The underlying trends remain quite encouraging. Royalty receipts grew by 8% for the full year, reflecting the strength of our diversified portfolio. Additionally, the new disclosures on milestones and other contractual receipts show the impact of the BioHaven related payments on reported performance. As a reminder, in 2022, we received $509 million in BioHaven related payments, while in 2023, we received $525 million in BioHaven related payments, with the net impact being a relatively modest benefit to full year 2023. Overall, milestones and other contractual receipts grew by 15% in 2023, contributing to 9% growth in portfolio receipts. Slide 21 shows how our portfolio receipts performance in the fourth quarter and full year in more detail, including individual royalty contributions. Beginning with royalty receipts, growth of 10% in the quarter and 8% for the year was mainly due to the strong performances of the Cystic Vibrosis franchise, Trilogy, and Trimphia, as well as the acquisition of the Spinraza royalties. We also saw growth contributions from most of our key royalties, including Evrisdi, Tridelvi, Promacta, and Kablametix. These positive factors were partially offset by weakness in Imbrivica and Tysavri, as well as by royalty expirations in the other products category. When we moved to milestones and other contractual receipts, year over year comparisons were impacted by the BioHaven related payments, as I just noted. Taken together, portfolio receipts grew by 9% for the full year. Slide 22 shows how our efficient business model generates substantial cash flow to be reinvested. Portfolio receipts amounted to $736 million in the fourth quarter and $3.05 billion for the full year. As we move down the column, operating and professional costs equated to .4% of portfolio receipts in the quarter and 8% for the full year. Moving further down the column, we have consistently stated that when we say that the cash generated by the business to then be redeployed into value enhancing royalties, we look to adjust the DBA data less net interest paid, or what we now call portfolio cash flow. This amounted to $687 million in the quarter and $2.71 billion for the full year, equivalent to margins of around 93% and 89% respectively. These high levels of cash conversion once again highlight the efficiency of our business model. Furthermore, based on this strong cash generation profile, we were comfortably able to support capital deployment of approximately $1 billion in the fourth quarter and $2.2 billion in the full year, as well as to repurchase $305 million of our stock. Slide 23 shows that while 2023 was a substantial year for capital deployment, continue to maintain significant financial capacity for future royalty acquisitions. In total,
spk03: we have greater than $3.5 billion through
spk21: a combination of cash on our balance sheet and access to the debt markets. Into the fourth quarter, we had cash in equivalence of $477 million. On top of our $6.3 billion of investment grade bonds, we've maintained significant leverage capacity, which we previously have said we could take up to four times total debt to EBITDA if the right opportunity arose. Furthermore, we have additional financial capacity from the $1.8 billion revolver, on which you should note we repaid the $350 million draw in the fourth quarter. Taken together with our strong cash generation, we feel good about our ability to continue to execute transactions and create shareholder value. Slide 24 provides our
spk12: full year 2024
spk21: financial guidance. We expect portfolio receipts to be in the range of $2.6 billion to $2.7 billion. Let me walk you through our assumptions. First, within our overall top line guidance, we expect to deliver continued attractive growth in royalty receipts. We anticipate the strength of our diversified portfolio will more than offset continued in Brubica and Tysabri headwinds, as well as a potential launch of Primaqta generics. Second, on a reported basis, we face a high base of comparison in 2023 as a result of the $525 million of Biohaven related payment we received last year. For your modeling consideration, I remind you that the largest element, the $475 million Zavzaprep milestone, was received in the first quarter of 2023. As a consequence, milestones and other contractual receipts are expected to be substantially lower in 2024. Lastly, our guidance assumes a negligible FX impact. Importantly and consistent with our standard practice, this guidance is based on our portfolio as of today and does not take into account the benefit of any future royalty applications. Turning to operating expenses, we expect payments for operating at professional costs to be approximately 8% to 9%
spk19: for full year
spk21: receipts in 2024.
spk19: Interest paid for full year
spk21: 2024 is expected to be around $160 million and to follow the established quarterly pattern with the minimum amounts payable in Q2 and Q4. This does not take into account any interest received on our cash balance, which amounted to $72 million for full year 2023 and $8 million in the fourth quarter. Slide 25 provides more detail on the expected evolution of royalty receipts versus milestones and other contractual receipts in 2024. For royalty receipts, we expect growth of around 5% to 9%, while milestones and other contractual receipts are expected to decline from around $600 million in 2023 to approximately $30 million in 2024. The key message here is the continued attractive and underlying growth of our royalty portfolio, which we expect to deliver in 2024. With that, I'd like to hand the call back
spk27: to Pablo. Thanks, Terry. Let me start by concluding remarks by saying how pleased I am with our performance in 2023. We delivered strong growth, we maintained our industry leadership, and we deployed substantial capital on value enhancing royalty acquisitions, all against a positive fundamental backdrop in which royalties are becoming a core funding modality for life sciences innovation. On slide 27, my final slide, I wanted to leave you with a key message. Navigating the science and business opportunity in biopharma is extremely complex. For investors, we circumvent that complexity by having a simple but powerful business model, which we're confident will deliver attractive growth and shareholder returns over the long term. It starts with our diversified portfolio of over 45 royalties that form the bedrock of our compounding growth. This portfolio is unique and cannot be replicated by new entrants. This in turn provides us with substantial cashflow to allocate primarily on value enhancing royalty opportunities. However, we also return capital to shareholders through an attractive and growing dividend and share repurchases. We maintain a high quality bar so that we can sustain attractive returns of our cost of capital. And the strong returns have in turn propelled our track record of impressive growth, which we expect to maintain over this decade. With that, we would be happy to take your questions.
spk10: Thanks, Pablo, and we will now open up the call to your question. Operator, please take the first question.
spk25: Thank you. Our first question comes from Jeff Meacham with Bank of America. Your line is open.
spk11: Hey guys, good morning. Thanks for the question. Just have a couple. So the first is that now that we have VANSA CAPTUR data and wanted to ask, what are the next steps in the dispute the royalty levels? And then when you guys look at the sensitivities around the switch rate from Tri-CAPTA to VANSA CAPTUR regimen, what are your high level thoughts as you plan kind of royalty economics going forward? And the second question, maybe higher level for Terry, does the new emphasis on portfolio receipts, does that imply that you're putting greater weight going forward on equity investments over royalties as the driver? Thank you.
spk27: Sure, thank you for those two questions. Terry, do you wanna take them, please?
spk16: Sure. So thanks, Jeff.
spk21: No update on any potential dispute with Vertex. And if something comes around there, we would certainly update you guys at the appropriate time. On the switch rate, so we obviously were very focused on this data and it came in very consistent with our expectations and very similar to the phase two data. There's no benefit on the primary endpoint of lung function and a small improvement on sweat chloride. And so you may remember on our second quarter call, we outlined the potential impact of different scenarios related to the CF franchise. And we, as a reminder, we looked at downside scenarios where 50% to as much as 75% of patients switch. And also where the ultimate royalty rate on the new triple is half of what we believe we're entitled to. And that downside sensitivity showed a headwind of a couple hundred million dollars on our top line towards the end of this decade. And as we highlighted then, we feel even more confident about now, this is very manageable for our business. And we're still very confident that we can go over top line growth over this decade with a CAGR of 10% or more. So, I think in terms of the switch, it's this data, we think the data that they showed, the scenarios that we highlighted still hold. And that's probably the best thing to reference would be our second quarter earnings deck. Doug.
spk15: Oh, yes, sorry.
spk21: And
spk15: then
spk21: your question on portfolio receipts and whether we would be more focused on equity. No, not at all. Our number one focus is buying royalties. And that's why we think that portfolio receipts, the way that we're breaking it out is actually really, really helpful now and provides even more transparency because we now have these two subcategories. We have portfolio receipts, and then we have milestones. Sorry, we have royalty receipts and milestones and other contractual receipts. And as you can see, royalty receipts are by far the biggest driver of the business. They're going to be the most consistent grower over time. And that's really where we're spending all of our energy is trying to add to that bucket. We also, from time to time, have these milestones and other contractual receipts that provide very attractive cash flow. But the more consistent element of the business will end up being the royalty receipts.
spk28: That's the core of the business. Thank you,
spk25: guys. Thank you. Our next question comes from Chris Scott with JPM. Your line is open.
spk08: All right, great. Thanks so much. Just two bigger picture questions for me. Maybe the first is on synthetic royalties. I think you mentioned it was a record year. Can you just elaborate a little bit more on what you're seeing in the market out there? And when you think about these transactions, how have returns historically compared on your synthetic royalties versus more traditional royalty structures? So I guess it is more about expanding the pie or could these deals actually be kind of more attractive returns than traditional structures? And then my second question was just on the 4 billion transactions last year. Just as you think about kind of the quantum of opportunity for 2024, should we think about that 4 billion dollar kind of number as kind of a new norm for royalty farm? I know the numbers have ramped over the last few years. Mr. Nafiori, if we should think about 23 as an unusual year or is that kind of level of deployment we should anticipate going forward? Thank you.
spk27: Thanks for the question, Chris. And I'm gonna turn it over to Chris Hyde, but I'm just gonna quickly answer your question about the returns and synthetic royalties. When we create those royalties, what we're doing is we're funding late stage trials for biotech and pharma companies. And for sure the returns on those investments are higher than when we buy a royalty sort of more conventional on an approved product, where as you know the returns we had guided to high single digit, low double digit. What we have been achieving is actually really the low double digit returns 11, 13 ish unlevered for the approved. But then for the synthetic royalties, what we have a pretty good track record of achieving returns that are significantly higher than that in the high teens and even into the low 20s when other products get approved. That's before leverage also, but Chris, on to you.
spk07: Yeah, no, thanks Pablo. I think Chris Pablo answered the first question. As it relates to the second question around four billion, is that the new norm? We're not changing our capital deployment guidance that we gave last year at our analyst day meeting of 10 to 12 billion over five years. I think what it does highlight is there's a strong momentum. You can absolutely see it in our funnel. Obviously the deals we've announced, we see it every day that royalty financing and that can come in a lot of different ways, obviously synthetic and existing royalties, all kinds of different ways is an absolutely growing trend within the sector. We're super excited about the opportunity set, but we're not changing our long-term guidance.
spk24: Thank you.
spk25: Thank you, our next question comes from Uma Rafat with Evercore, your line is open.
spk04: Hi guys, thanks for taking my question. I have a couple here if I may. First, Pablo, I know you guys did four billion in transactions in 2023, and you did share buybacks of 300 million. And you clearly have conviction on the deals you did, but I'm also sure you believe the stock is undervalued. So how should we think about that ratio of external deployment and the IRR expectation there relative to shares and where they trade? And secondly, Terry, these updates to the non-GAAP measures, were they prompted by an SEC request or was it volunteered by Royalty Pharma? And was there any discussion in these SEC conversations around how you account for the subset of development stage funding payments that you guys still exclude? Thank you.
spk27: So your first question, which was about capital deployment and also our share buyback program, I mean, one very clear message to give you and everyone is the management of our business, us here, you should really view us as fellow shareholders, right? So we actually own a lot of this business and we're very careful in the way we allocate capital. Our priority, as we've said multiple times in the past, is to actually make great investments because that's what's gonna drive growth and value creation for all of our investors, including ourselves. But then what we have also seen is a big disconnect in the intrinsic value of Royalty Pharma, our portfolio and our ability to continue to generate value by deploying capital. And that was what prompted this billion dollar share buyback program. And as you know, we've actually purchased about $300 million of the billion dollars, which was the goal for five years because of this disconnect. But we are obviously gonna prioritize going forward new royalty investments over buying back shares. And on to you, Terry, regarding.
spk21: Yeah, so Umar, thanks for the question. We've been a public company for three and a half years now. And over that time, we've had lots of interactions with investors and analysts. And one area that's come up is the uniqueness of our financials. I mean, we really are, and we always highlight this, but our financials also
spk00: show it. We're really an N of
spk21: one. And so what we're announcing today is the culmination of that feedback we received from investors and analysts and discussions with the SEC. As I mentioned in the prepared remarks, when we think about the ability to pursue our strategy, we look at the cash inflows from our diversified portfolio of royalties. We subtract the relatively small cash expenses to run the business. And we deploy the vast, we redeploy the vast majority of that capital in attractive new royalties to drive future value creation and growth. So our updated financial disclosures, which we're really happy with, really highlight the virtuous cycle of our business model.
spk05: Thank you so much.
spk25: Thank you. Our next question comes from Terrence Flynn with Morgan Stanley. Your line is open.
spk29: Great. Thanks so much for taking the questions, too, for me. I always appreciate the funnel slide that you guys present every year, and was just wondering if you could provide a little bit more detail on the 47 proposals submitted. How many of those were unilateral processes? I think in the past you said that the majority of the proposals you submit are unilateral, but just wondering unilateral versus competitive, if you can kind of give us a mix there. And then the other one I had is just on your 24 guidance, Terry, can you give us any color about how you're thinking about the impact from Tysabri biosimilars? Because I know there's a range of outcomes here. Thank you.
spk27: Thank you, Terrence, for your question. So Marshall will take the first part of your question, and then Terry will take the second.
spk02: Hi, Terrence, good morning. Thanks for the question on the funnel. So maybe just to answer your question qualitatively, which is I think when we looked at last year and the mix of the proposals that we made between outgoing proposals that our team were proprietary to our team and we identified versus things that might've been incoming or processes, I think the mix was probably very consistent with prior years, underscoring what you heard from Paolo and Chris about our confidence in the underlying trends. And I think as we look forward, we're certainly prioritizing those creating -on-one opportunities or proprietary opportunities for two reasons. I think one is when we are -on-one with a company, that's when we're in the best position to solve their problems and create really great investments. And two, we have been building the team and focusing more and more on a priori identifying those products and programs that we think are really exciting and going after those to do everything we can to build the portfolio and make it as strong as it can be with the greatest medicines that can be in it. So we feel really good about the underlying trends in the business and where our team is to continue to execute as we've been doing.
spk21: And then Terrence, on the Tysabri Biosimilar, this is something we're obviously tracking. We have similar information to you in terms of timing there, and there's still a little bit of uncertainty. But we take really a scenario-based approach in our guidance, and we definitely looked at downside scenarios in terms of biosimilar launch and potential impact to the brand and feel really good about the guidance that we gave there. I would say the consensus now, actually we now are including the consensus for our top products on our website to again sort of make it easier to sort of follow the portfolio. And I would say that that consensus certainly seems to reflect some pretty substantial impact from the biosimilar. And again, one of the things that we've highlighted in the past is that Tysabri's a unique drug and for a lot of different reasons. And so we expect that it's still gonna have significant sales even with a biosimilar on the market. And at this point, we're only aware of one that would potentially be a competitor.
spk25: Thank you. Our next question. Our next question comes from Chris Shibutani with Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.
spk20: Great, thank you very much. Two questions if I could, just in general about opportunities that's on the forward. Marshall, curious to know what your thinking is in particular about the cardio metabolic as you guys categorize it. Investors in the industry clearly enthralled by the opportunity of metabolic disease, particularly obesity and allied conditions. Curious about your views there. And then secondly, during the past two years or so, there's been a bit of a turnover the shareholder base, particularly amongst the original IPO investors. Perhaps can you comment on anything that can give us perspective on where we're at with that? I think that has somewhat loomed as an overhang in investors' mindsets, but on the forward, what would you guide investors to think about that? Thank you.
spk27: Sure, I'll take your second question about the change in the shareholder base. It has been very significant. I think the goal for us going forward now is really to focus on long-term holders of Royal Farma and cultivating new investors and educating new investors about our business, which is very unique and very, very attractive. And I think one of the very exciting things we're doing this quarter is revamping, as Terry reviewed our financial information and reporting. But also, I would really encourage all of you to go to our website and now see how we've actually prepared a lot of interesting Excel spreadsheets where you're gonna be able to see, we're gonna really make it easy for investors and investors will be able to see the historical performance of the business, the product by product, how Royals are calculated, and then the analyst consensus. And all of this in a spreadsheet, making it really easy for new investors, old investors to track performance and actually decide to make an investment in our business, model it and monitor it. But I'll pass it on to, I think it was you, Marshall, on the first question.
spk02: Absolutely, yeah, hi Chris, good morning. On your question on the CV metabolic space, no question, as you might imagine, we've been following all of the really exciting developments there with a lot of interest. We do take a little bit broader view of all the innovation that's been going on in that area to find opportunities. Certainly the investments in LP little a that we've made over the last two years, which is a exciting new target in cholesterol management is an example of that and we're excited to see the results of those studies over the next couple of years. And specifically in obesity, as you might imagine, we're following the space closely. But really we'll continue to follow it in the context of our overarching strategy, which we've talked to you before about, which is to really be disciplined, to look for opportunities that make sense for royalty pharma and to wait. Until we see the right thing to add something in a particular therapeutic area, rather than saying, we really need to go out and identify something in obesity or in a indication related to obesity. But we want the right things and we've been patient and I think as you've seen us too in multiple other areas, we really will have the discipline and the patience to wait and find the right thing for royalty pharma. When we see the right thing, we will go after it really aggressively, but we're certainly gonna wait and show the same discipline that served us well to date.
spk23: Thank you.
spk25: Thank you, our next question comes from Steven Scala with TD Cowan, your line is open.
spk06: Thank you very much. In response to an earlier question on the Vertex situation, you mentioned that there were no updates. Does that mean that nothing is going on? So the royalty is unchanged until some event occurs and or is there, are there discussions that you cannot detail? Is it possible that Vertex concluded royalty pharma was right all along and won't press the issue or will royalty pharma start getting smaller royalty checks? So a royalty pharma will have to initiate the litigation. And if the answer is you can't discuss it, can you tell us why you can't discuss it? Is it because it's on the advice of legal counsel or that you don't know anything at this time? Thank you. Thank you for the question,
spk27: Steve, Terry, please go
spk06: ahead.
spk16: Yeah, Steve,
spk21: we know investors are curious about this and unfortunately we just can't provide any updates at this point, but I would just reiterate what I said earlier. Investors have the sensitivities that we provided on our second quarter call to understand the potential impact of the business under various downside scenarios and we still feel like those sensitivities are appropriate and we will provide updates in due course. Thank you.
spk25: Thank you, there are no further questions at this time. I'd like to turn the call back over to Pablo for any closing remarks.
spk27: Thank you, operator, and thanks to everyone on the call for your continued interest in royalty pharma. If you have any follow-up questions, please feel free to reach out to George and the IR team. Thank you very much.
spk25: Ladies and gentlemen, this does include the program. You may now disconnect. Everyone, have a great day.
spk22: Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you.
spk25: Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Royalty Farmer Q4 2023 earnings conference call. I would like to now turn the conference over to George Grofick, senior vice president, head of investor relations at the Royalty Farmer Q4. Please!
spk09: Thank you. And good morning and good afternoon to everyone on the call. Thank you for joining
spk10: us to review Royalty Pharma's fourth quarter and full year 2023 results. You can find the press release with our earnings results and slides this call on the investors page of our website at royaltypharma.com. Moving to slide three, I would like to remind you that information presented in this call contains forward-looking statements that involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties, and other factors that may cause actual results to differ materially from these statements. I refer you to our 10-K on file with the SEC for description of these risks. All forward-looking statements are based on information currently available to Royalty Pharma, and we assume no obligation to update any such forward-looking statements. Non-GAAP liquidity measures will be used to help you understand our financial performance. The reconciliation of these measures to our GAAP financials are provided in the earnings pressure release available on our website. And with that, please advance to slide four. Our speakers on the call today are Pablo Legareta, founder and chief executive officer, Chris Height, EVP vice chairman, Marshall Yuris, EVP head of research and investment, and Terry Coyne, EVP chief financial officer. Pablo will discuss the key highlights. Chris will then provide more detail in our transaction pipeline, after which Marshall will give a portfolio update. Next, Terry will review the financials, and following concluding remarks from Pablo, we will hold a Q&A session. And with that, I'd like to turn the call over to Pablo.
spk27: Thank you, George, and welcome to everyone on the call. I am delighted to report another successful year of execution against our vision to be the leading partner funding innovation in life sciences. I am very proud of our achievements in 2023, which are summarized on slide six. We maintained our track record of strong business momentum with excellent financial performance and significant enhancement of our portfolio. In terms of the financials, we delivered 9% growth in portfolio receipts, our top line, with royalty receipts up 8%. As Terry will discuss later, we have refined and simplified the presentation of our non-GAAP measures to improve analysis and tracking our financial performance. In addition, in what we view as a big step towards further simplifying the analysis of Royal Deferment for current and future investors, we're also posting supplemental financial information to our website, which brings together in one place all of the relevant financial data for our business, including a detailed product build and consensus forecasts. During the year, we added royalties on eight therapies, including incremental royalties on the exciting blockbuster therapy, EBRESTI. We also saw a number of positive clinical and regulatory events for portfolio assets. In terms of capital allocation, 2023 was very strong with $4 billion in announced transactions and $2.2 billion in actual cash deployed. Notably, it was our highest ever year for synthetic royalty transactions. We also announced a $1 billion buyback program earlier in the year because of the disconnect we see in the share price from our strong fundamental outlook. Lastly, we're reflecting the strong momentum in our business in our 2024 full-year guidance. We expect portfolio receipts to be between $2.6 and $2.7 billion based on expected underlying growth from our portfolio of between 5 and 9%. Consistent with our standard practice, our guidance is based on our current portfolio and does not include the benefit of any future transactions. Slide 7 shows our strong growth in royalty receipts in the fourth quarter and for the full year. As I noted earlier, we delivered 8% growth in royalty receipts in 2023, which includes 10% growth in the fourth quarter. This speaks to the excellent momentum of our diversified portfolio of more than 35 approved products. In addition to our strong growth, slide 8 illustrates that we have significantly broadened our portfolio through the approximate $13 billion of transactions we have announced since 2020. To put this in perspective, at the time of our IPO, we guided to greater than $7 billion in royalty acquisitions through 2025. So, we have exceeded this figure by a substantial margin. Over the period, we have acquired royalties on 34 unique therapies, of which 17 are either currently or projected to be blockbusters and nearly two-thirds were approved at the time of acquisition. These new royalties are expected to add approximately $1.2 billion to our top line in 2025, using consensus estimates. The ability to continually expand the portfolio with attractive, long-duration royalties is another unique feature of our business model and underscores my high level of confidence in royalty pharma's prospects. With that, I will hand it over to Chris to update you on our transaction pipeline.
spk07: Thanks, Pablo. Slide 10 really explains the excitement we have for our market. 2023 saw very strong momentum for the royalty market with $7.4 billion of announced transactions. Not only did this represent the strongest year ever for royalty funding, but the dollar value was over 12 times that in 2015 and the long-term upward trend is visible despite some -to-year volatility. What this tells us is that royalties are becoming a core funding mechanism for the biopharma industry. Importantly, we maintain our leading share of this market in 2023 with a 53% market share. For comparison, the number two royalty buyer has only a 13% market share in 2023. Slide 11 drills down deeper into our transaction funnel. As you can see here, we were incredibly busy and reviewed more than 400 potential royalty transactions. This resulted in 126 CDAs signed, 93 in-depth reviews, and 47 proposals submitted. We continued to be very financially disciplined in our approach as we executed only seven transactions or just 2% of our initial reviews. Slide 12 illustrates the strong underlying trends in our transaction funnel, not just in 2023, but over a multi-year period. On the left-hand side, the number of in-depth reviews we conducted has more than doubled since 2019, which was the year prior to us going public. We view this as an important data point as this is when our team starts to invest a significant amount of time reviewing opportunities. The expansion in this number speaks to the growing number of quality opportunities we're seeing. On the right-hand side, you can see that the transaction value reached $4 billion in 2023, which is about double what we achieved in 2019. Looking ahead, we're confident we can scale up our capital deployment over time while maintaining a high-quality bar and attractive returns. Slide 13 shows the strong growth in synthetic royalty transactions since last year. We pioneered this innovative solution in which we create new royalties as a non-dilutive funding solution for our partners. Historically, biopharma funding has been dominated by equity, licensing deals, and debt. Synthetic royalties have been a small part, just 3% of the overall funding picture over the last five years. However, we strongly believe that synthetic royalties offer an attractive win-win approach to our partners. Consequently, our expectation is that they will be a fast-growing business opportunity in the coming years. This is backed up by our ongoing partnership discussions, where we now see that synthetic royalties are being routinely discussed at the board level and C-suites as a potential funding modality. Consistent with this growing opportunity, we announced synthetic royalty transactions of nearly $800 million in 2023, which represents a doubling since the year of our IPO. We see this as just the start of a really important trend. And with that, I'll hand it over to Marshall.
spk02: Thanks, Chris. As Pablo noted, not only did we deploy substantial capital to enhance our portfolio in 2023, but we saw a number of positive clinical and regulatory events for therapies in our portfolio. In addition, we benefited from strong in-market performance for many of our recent portfolio acquisitions. Slide 15 shows the performance of our transactions since 2020. The graphic on the left-hand side shows that the consensus 2025 sales estimates for the majority of our recent investments has increased significantly. Over half have seen more than 20% increases in consensus sales and a couple of increased by more than 50%, notably Everisdy, on which we acquired incremental royalties in 2023. The graphic on the right-hand side highlights that the majority of our recent development stage investments have delivered positive clinical or regulatory milestones. The takeaway is that our team has a strong track record of identifying attractive commercial and development stage opportunities driven by our disciplined and time-tested approach. Expanding on our development stage portfolio, we're very excited about several notable successes over the past year. Slide 16 lists six important recent highlights from our portfolio, including the positive results from cytokinetics, cardiovascular drug, Afikampton, and the $13 billion acquisition of Coruna by Bristol-Myers Squibb to gain CAR-XT for schizophrenia, where we have a royalty. Also, last week Novartis announced a $3 billion acquisition of Morphosis, where we have a royalty on the LEAD program collaborative, $300 million of development funding bonds where we will receive a 2.2X return over time, as well as approximately $100 million of Morphosis equity. Each of these development stage therapies has the potential to be an important contributor to our long-term growth and returns, and we have a number of exciting potential upcoming milestones for our portfolio in 2024 and beyond. Lastly, I should note that we made a small but exciting investment in Emilex's Ecopipam in January, which is potentially the first drug specifically developed for Tourette syndrome. With that, I'll hand over to Terry.
spk21: Thanks, Marshall. Let's move to slide 18. You will have seen from our press release today that we have made changes to our financial presentation in
spk18: order to enhance
spk21: transparency and disclosures for investors and to better reflect the nature of our cash flows. First, as we previously announced on January 8th, we have replaced adjusted cash receipts with portfolio receipts. While this key performance metric sums to the same amount of adjusted cash receipts, the change will facilitate increased transparency into the economics of individual royalties, as these will now be
spk00: reported net
spk21: of legacy non-controlling interest. Additionally, portfolio receipts will be broken down into two subcategories, namely, royalty receipts and milestone and other contractual receipts. This new disclosure is intended to provide greater clarity on the underlying trends in our royalty portfolio versus other contractual payments, which may be more variable over time. Second, to better reflect our cash flows, we are introducing a non-GAAP liquidity measure, portfolio cash flow, along with a new performance metric, capital deployment. We believe these new measures will help focus investors on the simplicity of our business model and the cash inflows and cash outflows of our business. Finally, you should note that our long-term outlook is unchanged by this new presentation. All guidance statements which we made for adjusted cash receipts now apply to portfolio receipts. In other words, we expect a compounded annual gross rate in portfolio receipts of between 11% to 14% over 2020 to 2025, and of 10% or more from 2020 to 2030. In totality,
spk13: we believe these
spk21: changes provide greater insight into our business and are more aligned with how we manage our business. It should be noted that these changes have been discussed with the SEC. Slide 19 provides more granular detail on our non-GAAP liquidity measures and performance metrics. As I just noted, the calculation of portfolio receipts is identical to the previous adjusted cash receipts, but the new disclosures provide greater transparency into the underlying economics and trends within our portfolio. Adjusted EBITDA is unchanged at a key non-GAAP liquidity measure. Portfolio cash flow, another key non-GAAP liquidity measure, is calculated as adjusted EBITDA less net interest paid. It replaces adjusted cash flow and measures substantially all cash generated by the business. The primary difference between portfolio cash flow and adjusted cash flow is the exclusion of upfront development stage payments and milestones, which are now included in capital deployment. Capital deployment measures substantially all cash outflows related to our investment activity in a single line. It is an aggregate amount which reflects cash payments for new and previously announced transactions as opposed to announced transaction value, which may also include milestones to be paid in future periods. We include a detailed breakdown of capital deployment in our
spk17: earnings report on page 4.
spk21: When management thinks about the ability to pursue our strategy, we look at portfolio receipts as the cash inflows, we subtract cash expenses to arrive at portfolio cash flow, and we deploy the vast majority of that capital into attractive royalties to drive future value creation and growth. The virtuous cycle of our business is critical to understanding how we generate long-term value. Following these updates, we will no longer report adjusted cash receipts or adjusted cash flow. We have posted to our website the historical financials under this new framework dating back to 2019. We are also providing significant additional information on the investor section of our website, including key royalty terms, consensus estimates for key products, and NCI byproduct to assist in your modeling. Let's now move on to the financials, starting with our full-year top line performance on slide 20. The underlying trends remain quite encouraging. Royalty receipts grew by 8% for the full year, reflecting the strength of our diversified portfolio. Additionally, the new disclosures on milestones and other contractual receipts show the impact of the BioHaven-related payments on reported performance. As a reminder, in 2022, we received $509 million in BioHaven-related payments, while in 2023, we received $525 million in BioHaven-related payments, with the net impact being a relatively modest benefit to full year 2023. Overall, milestones and other contractual receipts grew by 15% in 2023, contributing to 9% growth in portfolio receipts. Slide 21 shows how our portfolio receipts performance in the fourth quarter and full year in more detail, including individual royalty contributions. Beginning with royalty receipts, growth of 10% in the quarter and 8% for the year was mainly due to the strong performances of the Cystic Vibrosis franchise, Trilogy, and Trimphia, as well as the acquisition of the Spinraza royalties. We also saw growth contributions from most of our key royalties, including Evrisdi, Tordelvi, Promacta, and Kaabometix. These positive factors were partially offset by weakness in Imbrivica and Tysavri, as well as by royalty expirations in the other products category. When we moved to milestones and other contractual receipts, -over-year comparisons were impacted by the BioHaven-related payments, as I just noted. Taken together, portfolio receipts grew by 9% for the full year. Slide 22 shows how our efficient business model generates substantial cash flow to be reinvested. Portfolio receipts amounted to $736 million in the fourth quarter and $3.05 billion for the full year. As we move down the column, operating and professional costs equated to .4% of portfolio receipts in the quarter and 8% for the full year. Moving further down the column, we have consistently stated that when we say that the cash generated by the business to then be redeployed into value-enhancing royalties, we look to adjust the debt without less net interest paid, or what we now call portfolio cash flow. This amounted to $687 million in the quarter and $2.71 billion for the full year, equivalent to margins of around 93% and 89% respectively. These high levels of cash conversion once again highlight the efficiency of our business model. Furthermore, based on this strong cash generation profile, we were comfortably able to support capital deployment of approximately $1 billion in the fourth quarter and $2.2 billion in the full year, as well as to repurchase $305 million of our stock. Slide 23 shows that while 2023 was a substantial year for capital deployment, we continued to maintain significant financial capacity for future royalty acquisitions. In total,
spk03: we have greater than $3.5 billion available through
spk21: a combination of cash on our balance sheet and access to the debt markets. Into the fourth quarter, we had cash in equivalence of $477 million. On top of our $6.3 billion of investment-grade bonds, we maintained significant leverage capacity, which we previously have said we could take up to four times total debt to EBITDA if the right opportunity arose. Furthermore, we have additional financial capacity from the $1.8 billion revolver, on which you should note we repaid the $350 million draw in the fourth quarter. Taken together with our strong cash generation, we feel good about our ability to continue to execute transactions and create shareholder value. Slide 24 provides our
spk12: full year 2024
spk21: financial guidance. We expect portfolio receipts to be in the range of $2.6 billion to $2.7 billion. Let me walk you through our assumptions. First, within our overall top-line guidance, we expect to deliver continued attractive growth in royalty receipts. We anticipate the strength of our diversified portfolio will more than offset continued imbrivica and Tysabri headwinds, as well as a potential launch of permactive generics. Second, on a reported
spk19: basis,
spk21: we face a high base of comparisons in 2023 as a result of the $525 million of BioHaven-related payments we received last year. For your modeling consideration, I remind you that the largest element, the $475 million Zavzaprep milestone, was received in the first quarter of 2023. As a consequence, milestones and other contractual receipts are expected to be substantially lower in 2024. Lastly, our guidance assumes a negligible FX impact. Importantly, and consistent with our standard practice, this guidance is based on our portfolio as of today and does not take into account the benefit of any future royalty applications. Turning to operating expenses, we expect payments for operating at professional cost to be approximately 8% to 9% portfolio
spk19: receipts
spk21: in 2024.
spk19: Interest paid for full year
spk21: 2024 is expected to be around $160 million and will follow the established quarterly pattern with de minimis amounts payable in Q2 and Q4. This does not take into account any interest received cash balance, which amounted to $72 million for full year 2023 and $8 million in the fourth quarter. Slide 25 provides more detail on the expected evolution of royalty receipts versus milestones and other contractual receipts in 2024. For royalty receipts, we expect growth of around 5% to 9%, while milestones and other contractual receipts are expected to decline from around $600 million in 2023 to approximately $30 million in 2024. The key message here is the continued attractive underlying growth of our royalty portfolio, which we expect to deliver in 2024. With that,
spk27: I'd like to hand the call back to Pablo. Thanks, Terry. Let me start by concluding remarks by saying how pleased I am with our performance in 2023. We delivered strong growth, we maintained our industry leadership, and we deployed substantial capital on value enhancing royalty acquisitions, all against a positive fundamental backdrop in which royalties are becoming a core funding modality for life sciences innovation. On slide 27, my final slide, I wanted to leave you with a key message. Navigating the science and business opportunity in biopharma is extremely complex. For investors, we circumvent that complexity by having a simple but powerful business model which we're confident will deliver attractive growth and shareholder returns over the long term. It starts with our diversified portfolio of over 45 royalties that form the bedrock of our compounding growth. This portfolio is unique and cannot be replicated by new entrants. This in turn provides us with substantial cash flow to allocate primarily on value enhancing royalty opportunities. However, we also return capital to shareholders through an attractive and growing dividend and share repurchases. We maintain a high quality bar so that we can sustain attractive returns above our cost of capital. And the strong returns have in turn propelled our track record of impressive growth, which we expect to maintain over this decade. With that, we would be happy to take your questions.
spk10: Thanks, Pablo, and we will now open up the call to questions. Operator, please take the first question.
spk25: Thank you. Our first question comes from Jeff Meacham with Bank of America. Your line is open.
spk11: Hey, guys. Good morning. Thanks for the question. Just to have a couple. So the first is that now that we have VANSA CAPTA data in hand, I wanted to ask what are the next steps in the dispute of the royalty levels? And then when you guys look at the sensitivities around the switch rate from Tri-CAPTA to VANSA CAPTA regimen, what are your high level thoughts as you plan kind of royalty economics going forward? And the second question, maybe higher level for Terry, does the new emphasis on portfolio receipts, does that imply that you're putting greater weight going forward on equity investments over royalties as the driver?
spk27: Thank
spk11: you.
spk27: Sure. Thank you for those two questions. Terry, do you want to take them, please?
spk16: Sure. So thanks, Jeff. No
spk21: update on any potential dispute with Vertex. And, you know, we would if something comes around there, we would certainly update you guys at the appropriate time. On the switch rate, so we obviously were very focused on this data, and it came in very consistent with our expectations and very similar to the phase two data. There's no benefit on the primary endpoint of lung function and a small improvement on sweat chloride. And so you may remember on our second quarter call, we outlined the potential impact of different scenarios related to the CF franchise. And we, as a reminder, we looked at downside scenarios where 50% to as much as 75% of patients switch. And also where the ultimate royalty rate on the new triple is half of what we believe we're entitled to. And that downside sensitivity showed a headwind of a couple hundred million dollars on our top line towards the end of this decade. And as we highlighted then, we feel even more confident about now, this is very manageable for our business. And we're still very confident that we can go over top line growth over this decade, with a CAGR of 10% or more. So I think in terms of the switch, this data, we think the data that they showed, the scenarios that we highlighted still hold. And that's probably the best thing to reference would be our second quarter earnings deck. Doug?
spk15: Oh yes, sorry. And then your
spk21: question on portfolio receipts and whether we would be more focused on equity. No, not at all. Our number one focus is buying royalties. And that's why we think that portfolio receipts, the way that we're breaking it out, is actually really, really helpful now and provides even more transparency because we now have these two subcategories. We have portfolio receipts and then we have milestones and other, sorry, we have royalty receipts and milestones and other contractual receipts. And as you can see, royalty receipts are by far the biggest driver of the business. They're going to be the most consistent grower over time. And that's really where we're spending all of our energy is trying to add to that bucket. We also, from time to time, have these milestones and other contractual receipts that provide very attractive cash flow. But the more consistent element of the business will end up being the royalty receipts.
spk28: That's the core of the business. Thank you guys.
spk25: Thank you. Our next question comes from Chris Scott with JPM. Your line is open.
spk08: All right, great. Thanks so much. Just two bigger picture questions for me. Maybe the first is on synthetic royalties. I think you mentioned there was a record year. Can you just elaborate a little bit more on what you're seeing in the market out there? And when you think about these transactions, how have returns historically compared on your synthetic royalties versus more traditional royalty structures? So I guess it is more about expanding the pie or could these deals actually be kind of more attractive returns than traditional structures? And then my second question was just on the 4 billion transactions last year. Just as you think about kind of the quantum of opportunity for 2024, should we think about that $4 billion kind of number as kind of a new norm for royalty farm? I know the numbers have ramped over the last few years. I'm just trying to figure out if we should think about 2023 as an unusual year or is that kind of level of deployment we should anticipate going forward? Thank you.
spk27: Thanks for the question, Chris. And I'm going to turn it over to Chris Hyde. Thanks, but I'm just going to quickly answer your question about the returns and synthetic royalties. When we create those royalties, what we're doing is we're funding late stage trials for biotech and pharma companies. And for sure, the returns on those investments are higher than when we buy a royalty sort of more conventional on an approved product, where as you know, the returns we had guided to high single digit, low double digit. What we have been achieving is actually really in the low double digit returns, 11, 13ish unlevered for the approved. But then for the synthetic royalties, we have a pretty good track record of achieving returns that are significantly higher than that in the high teens and even into the low 20s when the products get approved. That's before leverage also. But Chris, on to you. Yeah,
spk07: no, thanks Pablo. I think Chris, Pablo answered the first question. As it relates to the second question around 4 billion, is that the new norm? You know, we're not changing our capital deployment guidance that we gave last year at our Analyst Day meeting of 10 to 12 billion over five years. I think what it does highlight is there is a strong momentum. You know, you can absolutely see it in our funnel and obviously the deals we've announced, we see it every day. That royalty financing and that can come in a lot of different ways, obviously synthetic and existing royalties, all kinds of different ways, is an absolutely growing trend within the sector. So, you know, we're super excited about the opportunity step, but we're not changing our long term guidance.
spk25: Thank you. Thank you. Our next question comes from Uma Rafat with Evercore. Your line is open.
spk04: Hi guys, thanks for taking my question. I have a couple here if I may. First, Pablo, I know you guys did 4 billion in transactions in 2023 and you did share buybacks of 300 million. And you clearly have conviction on the deals you did, but I'm also sure you believe the stock is undervalued. So how should we think about that ratio of external deployment and the IRR expectation there relative to shares and where they trade? And secondly, Terry, these updates to the non-GAAP measures, were they prompted by an SEC request or was it volunteered by Royalty Pharma? And was there any discussion in these SEC conversations around how you account for the subset of development stage funding payments that you guys still exclude? Thank you.
spk27: So your first question, which was about capital deployment and also our share buyback program, I mean, one very clear message to give you and everyone is the management of our business, us here, you should really view us as fellow shareholders, right? So we actually own a lot of this business and we're very careful in the way we allocate capital. Our priority, as we've said multiple times in the past, is to actually make great investments because that's what's going to drive growth and value creation for all of our investors, including ourselves. But then what we have also seen is a big disconnect in the intrinsic value of Royalty Pharma, our portfolio and our ability to continue to generate value by deploying capital. And that was what prompted this billion-dollar share buyback program. And as you know, we've actually repurchased about $300 million of the billion dollars, which was the goal for five years because of this disconnect. But we are obviously going to prioritize going forward new royalty investments over buying back shares. And on to you, Terry, regarding...
spk21: Yeah, so Umar, thanks for the question. We've been a public company for three and a half years now. And over that time, we've had lots of interactions with investors and analysts. And one area that's come up is the uniqueness of our financials. I mean, we really are, and we always highlight this, but our financials also
spk00: show it. We're really an N
spk21: of one. And so what we're announcing today is the culmination of that feedback we received from investors and analysts and discussions with the SEC. As I mentioned in the prepared remarks, when we think about the ability to pursue our strategy, we look at the cash inflows from our diversified portfolio of royalties. We subtract the relatively small cash expenses to run the business. And we deploy the vast... We redeploy the vast majority of that capital in attractive new royalties to drive future value creation and growth. So our updated financial disclosures, which we're really happy with, really highlight the virtuous cycle of our business model.
spk05: Thank you so much.
spk25: Thank you. Our next question comes from Terrence Flynn with Morgan Stanley. Your line is open.
spk29: Great. Thanks so much for taking the questions, too, for me. I always appreciate the funnel slide that you guys present every year and was just wondering if you could provide a little bit more detail on the 47 proposals submitted. How many of those were unilateral processes? I think in the past you've said that the majority of the proposals you submit are unilateral, but just wondering unilateral versus competitive, if you can kind of give us a mix there. And then the other one I had is just on your 24 guidance, Terry. Can you give us any color about how you're thinking about the impact from Tysabri biosimilars? Because I know there's a range of outcomes here. Thank you.
spk27: Thank you, Terrence, for your question. So Marshall will take the first part of your question and then Terry will take the second.
spk02: Hi, Terrence. Good morning. Thanks for the question on the funnel. So maybe just to answer your question qualitatively, which is I think when we looked at last year, and the mix of the proposals that we made between outgoing proposals that our team were proprietary to our team and we identified versus things that might have been incoming or processes, I think the mix was probably very consistent with prior years, underscoring what you heard from Pablo and Chris about our confidence in the underlying trends. And I think as we look forward, we're certainly prioritizing those creating -on-one opportunities or proprietary opportunities for two reasons. I think one is when we are -on-one with a company, that's when we're in the best position to solve their problems and create really great investments. And two, we have been building the team and focusing more and more on a priori identifying those products and programs that we think are really exciting and going after those to do everything we can to build the portfolio and make it as strong as it can be with the greatest medicines that can be in it. So we feel really good about the underlying trends in the business and where our team is to continue to execute as we've been doing.
spk21: And then Terrence, on the Tysabri Biosimilar, this is something we're obviously tracking. We have similar information to you in terms of timing there, and there's still a little bit of uncertainty. But we take really a scenario-based approach in our guidance, and we definitely looked at downsized scenarios in terms of biosimilar launch and potential impact to the brand and feel really good about the guidance that we gave there. I would say the consensus now that's actually we now are including the consensus for our top products on our website to again sort of make it easier to sort of follow the portfolio. And I would say that that consensus certainly seems to reflect some pretty substantial impact from a biosimilar. And again, one of the things that we've highlighted in the past is that Tysabri is a unique drug and for a lot of different reasons. And so we expect that it's still going to have significant sales even with a biosimilar on the market. And at this point, we're only aware of one that would potentially be a competitor.
spk25: Thank you. Our next question comes from Chris Shibutani with Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.
spk20: Great. Thank you very much. Two questions if I could. Just in general about opportunities that's on the forward. Marshall, curious to know what your thinking is in particular about the cardio metabolic as you guys categorize it. Investors in the industry clearly enthralled by the opportunity of metabolic disease, particularly obesity and allied conditions. Curious about your views there. And then secondly, during the past two years or so, there's been a bit of a turnover the shareholder base, particularly amongst the original IPO investors. Perhaps can you comment on anything that can give us perspective on where we're at with that? I think that has somewhat loomed as an overhang in investors' mindsets. But on the forward, what would you guide investors to think about that? Thank you.
spk27: Sure. I'll take your second question about the change in the shareholder base. And it has been very significant. I think the goal for us going forward now is really to focus on long-term holders of Royal Deferment cultivating new investors and educating new investors about our business, which is very unique and very, very attractive. And I think one of the very exciting things we're doing this quarter is revamping, as Terry reviewed, our financial information and reporting. But also, I would really encourage all of you to go to our website and now see how we've actually prepared a lot of interesting Excel spreadsheets where you're going to be able to see we're going to really make it easy for investors. And investors will be able to see the historical performance of the business, product by product, how Royals are calculated, and then the analyst consensus. And all of this in a spreadsheet making it really easy for new investors, old investors to track performance and actually decide to make an investment in our business, model it and monitor it. But I'll pass it on to, I think it was you, Marshall, on the first question.
spk02: Absolutely. Hi, Chris. Good morning. On your question on the CV metabolic space, no question. As you might imagine, we've been following all of the really exciting developments there with a lot of interest. We do take a little bit broader view of all the innovation that's been going on in that area to find opportunities. Certainly, the investments in LP little a that we've made over the last two years, which is an exciting new target in cholesterol management is an example of that. And we're excited to see the results of those studies over the next couple of years. And specifically in obesity, as you might imagine, we're following the space closely. But really, we'll continue to follow it in the context of our overarching strategy, which we've talked to you before about, which is to really be disciplined, to look for opportunities that make sense for royalty pharma and to wait until we see the right thing to add something in a particular therapeutic area rather than saying, you know, we really need to go out and identify something in obesity or in a indication related to obesity. But we want the right things. And we've been patient. And I think as you've seen us do in multiple other areas, you know, we really will have the discipline and the patience to wait and find the right thing for royalty pharma. When we see the right thing, we will go after it really aggressively. But we're certainly going to wait and show the same discipline that served us well to date.
spk23: Thank you.
spk25: Thank you. Our next question comes from Steven Scala with TD Callan. Your line is open.
spk06: Thank you very much. In response to an earlier question on the Vertex situation, you mentioned that there were no updates. Does that mean that nothing is going on so the royalty is unchanged until some event occurs? And or is there, are there discussions that you cannot detail? Is it possible that Vertex concluded royalty pharma was right all along and won't press the issue? Or will royalty pharma start getting smaller royalty checks so a royalty pharma will have to initiate the litigation? And if the answer is you can't discuss it, can you tell us why you can't discuss it? Is it because it's on the advice of legal counsel or that you don't know anything at this time? Thank you.
spk27: Thank you for the question, Steve. Terry, please go ahead.
spk16: Yeah, Steve,
spk21: we know investors are curious about this and, you know, unfortunately we just can't provide any updates at this point. But I would just reiterate what I said earlier. You, investors have the sensitivities that we provided on our second quarter call to understand the potential impact of the business under various downside scenarios and we still feel like those sensitivities are appropriate and, you know, we will provide updates in due course.
spk23: Thank
spk21: you.
spk25: Thank you. There are no further questions at this time. I'd like to turn the call back over to Pablo for any closing remarks.
spk27: Thank you, operator, and thank you to everyone on the call for your continued interest in royalty pharma. If you have any follow-up questions, please feel free to reach out to George and the IR team. Thank you very much.
spk25: Ladies and gentlemen, this does include the program. You may now disconnect. Everyone, have a great day.
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