Ryanair Holdings plc

Hello and welcome everyone to the Ryanair Holdings PLC FY26 earnings release. My name is Becky and I will be coordinating your call today. If you would like to ask a question, you may do so by pressing start followed by one on your telephone keypad. I will now hand you over to Michael O'Leary, Group CEO of Ryanair Holdings, to begin. Michael, please go ahead when you're ready.

Okay, good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to the Full Year Results Analyst Conference. I'm joined by all the team on that. I'm speaking to you from New York. I'm joined by all the team from London, Dublin, and various other sites around Europe. As you've seen earlier this morning, we reported a record full year profit of $2.26 billion, which is a rise of 40% over our prior year profit after tax of $1.6 billion. The highlights were traffic growth of 4% to a new record figure of 208.4 million. That was achieved despite delivery delays on 29 Boeing game changer aircraft. During the year, incredible cost difference and unit cost rose only 1%. Looking forward for the next 12 months, we've covered 80% of our jet fuel at about $67 per barrel, $668 per metric tonne. We took delivery of the last 29 of our 210 game-changer orders, so we have 647 aircraft in the fleet at the 31st of March, and we've declared a final dividend of 19.5 cents per share. It's payable in September, subject to AGM approval. Obviously, we've had a record year, and we're delighted with these results, but they've been overtaken, obviously, by the conflict in the Middle East. Like everybody else, we don't know when the Strait of Hormuz will reopen, but But Europe remains very well supplied with jet fuel, and significant, almost all of Europe's jet fuel is now sourced from West Africa, the Americas, and Norway. Our very conservative jet fuel hedging strategy, as we said, under which 80% for the next 12 months is hedged at $67 per barrel out to April 2027, would insulate the Reiner Group, from the current very volatile oil market and will significantly widen the cost advance to behold overall EU competitors for the remainder of FY2027. As you'll see, the balance sheet remains strong with a BBB plus credit rating, both Fitch and S&P, with an unencumbered Boeing 737 fleet of 628 aircraft. At the 31st of March, gross cash was £3.6 billion. and this was after spending $1.9 billion on CapEx, $1.2 billion on debt repayments, and over $900 million in shareholder distributions over the last 12 months. Net cash was $2.1 billion at year-end, which enables the group to repay our very last $1.2 billion bond next week, before the end of May, which leaves our group effectively debt-free, which is a stunning achievement for any non-government-owned airline. During FY26, we purchased and transferred another 2% of our issued share capital. We've retired 38% of Ryanair's issued share capital since 2008. The final dividend of 19.5 cents is paid within September and is subject to AGM approval. Our priorities with our cash over the next 12 months are obviously, firstly, to fund the final bond repayment in May. then to fund our Max 10 aircraft topics over the next 12 months, to pay down dividends and continue to fund the balance of our €750 million buyback programme at favourable lower prices recently, while rebuilding internal cash flows, the group's cash back to €4 billion. I'm going to touch briefly on the fees growth. As we said, at the year end we have 647 aircraft, which includes 210 game changers, all of which are debt-free and unencumbered. Boeing are making very positive noises about the MAX 10 certification, which they now expect to take place at the end of Q3, early Q4 2026. They've also confirmed in writing that they expect to deliver Reiner's first 15 MAX 10 in the spring of 2027, in line with the original contract dates. Once we take 300 of these fuel-efficient aircrafts, all of which are due to deliver by March 2034. They will transform the economics, the operating costs of Ryanair, but they enable us to offer 20% more seats to the market, but they burn 20% of the seat-less fuel per flight. This summer, Ryanair has 130 new routes on sale. They include three new bases in Rabat, Morocco, Tirana in Albania, and Trampany in southern Italy. Our scarce FY27 capacity growth, or summer FY26 capacity growth, is allocated to those regions and airports who are actively cutting aviation taxes, like Sweden, Slovakia, Albania, and regional Italy, and are also where airports are incentivizing traffic growth. And we're switching our scarce capacity away from uncompetitive high-tax markets like Austria, Belgium, Germany, and regional Spain. The Board and myself commenced discussions on an extension of my employment contract, which currently runs to 2028. That runs out until April 2032. We've recently concluded an outline agreement, and the Board will commence engagement with our largest institutional shareholders in the coming days. The key feature of the contract extension is I will have purchase options over 10 million shares But these will only invest if we achieve very ambitious profit after tax and share price growth targets over the next six years, i.e. before 2030. If we do, we will create very substantial capital value for all shareholders. I want to turn then briefly to the outlook. We expect fully FY27 traffic to grow about 4% to 216 million passengers. The key feature of the next 12 months is that 80% of our jet fuel has been hedged at $67 per barrel, which is lower than last year's $76 per barrel price. However, the price of our unhedged 20% has spiked due to the Middle East conflict. Our EU enviro taxes are also expected to rise by a further $300 million this year to $1.4 billion, which makes EU air travel even less competitive than it was before. Ryanair, like all of the European airlines, are calling for either the abolition of ETS or bringing ETS taxes in line with Corsair rates, which is what the non-EU airlines pay. It makes no sense that we tax ourselves, that European airlines and passengers are taxed so indiscriminately compared to our non-EU competitors. Our maintenance costs will rise modestly due to an aging energy fleet and midlife hospital visits on the LEAP engines. There will also be some significant crew pay increases agreed this year. We've recently completed five-year pay deals with our Italian pilots and cabin crew and we're in active negotiations with a wide number of other national pilot and cabin crew unions and we expect to agree follow-on deals with those over the coming weeks and months. If the unhedged fuel prices remain at current elevated levels throughout the remainder of FY27, then unit costs could rise in Ryanair by a mid-single-digit percentage. That would still demonstrate incredible unit cost discipline. To date, our summer 26 travel demand remains robust, although bookings since the war in the Middle East... are closer in than they were last year, which reduced invisibility. Pricing in recent weeks has been somewhat, in response to economic uncertainty, caused by higher oil prices, far too much media attention about the fear of fuel shortages, which we believe does not exist, and the risk of inflation and adversity impacting consumer spending. In fact, the trend we've been seeing is that further out into June, July and August, we're having to marginally discount pricing, you know, maybe 1% or 2% to keep the forward curve rising, but the close-in bookings in early, mid-May are strong and pricing is strong. With the first week of Easter falling into March, which benefited last year's Q4, we now expect Q1 fares to be behind Q1 FY26 by a mid-digit percentage. With constrained EU capacity and short-haul capacity due to OEM delivery delays and the engine repairs, we'd originally expected S26 fares to rise modestly. We thought we'd be in the low single digits after a 10% fare increase in the prior year. However, Q2 pricing, with limited visibility, is now trending broadly flat, and the final outcome will be totally dependent on close-in peak summer 26 bookings and fares. With zero H2 visibility and significant fuel price potential supply volatility, it's far too early to provide any meaningful FY27 profit guidance at this time. And with that, I'm going to ask Neil Thornton, the Group CFO, to take us through the MD&A. Neil?

Thanks, Michael. I'm just going to maybe reiterate a couple of points that you already made. So, first and foremost, looking at last year, very strong performance on unit costs, up 1%. So, in line with the modesty unit cost inflation that we previously guided. Balance sheet, as Michael has already said, finished the year, rock solid balance sheet, triple B plus rated, 3.6 billion gross cash. And as a CFO, very excited that we'll be debt free this day next week, having paid off our final 1.2 billion bonds and a very strong unencumbered lease available to us. Looking beyond Then into next year again, very well hedged, as Michael has already said, $668 a metric ton. We hedge jet fuel. We don't hedge Brent or gas oil. We hedge exactly what goes into the tanks. That has always been the case. But equally, very well hedged on the euro dollar as well. We don't generate any dollars in the business. So we've hedged 80% of our dollar requirements on fuel this year at $1.15. And indeed, we've put down... a floor into the first half of next year with nearly 30% euro-dollar hedged at 120. So locking in dollar savings, but haven't moved on with our jet fuel yet, just waiting to see where the market steadies in the next number of weeks. The next big mover on the cost base, as Michael has alluded to, is going to be the MAX-10 aircraft coming in. in the spring of next year, 20% more fuel efficient, 20% more seats. We'll be spreading the costs across 20% more traffic from then onwards. So business is in good shape. The balance sheets rock solid, and we're managing things that are within our control well. Michael, a hand back over to you, please.

Okay, thank you, Neil. And with that, we'll ask the moderator to open up for Q&A, please. And we're going to limit everybody on with each two questions as normal, so we get through this in about an hour.

Thank you. If you wish to ask a question, please press star followed by one on your telephone keypad now. If you feel your question has been answered or for any reason you would like to remove yourself from the queue, please press star followed by two. And when preparing to ask your question, please ensure your device is unmuted locally. Our first question comes from Steven Furlong from Davie. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Oh, hi, Michael. Okay. I just want to ask about aircrafts, actually, and just generally capacity. So I saw in your presentation you've kind of smoothed out the future growth plan. Maybe it's just the timing of deliveries. It's 3% or so in the next two years. Do you think that as you go into the winter, it's likely that there'll be changes in the market capacity? Presumably at these oil prices, a lot of competitors are stressed. And then even beyond that, obviously, you're working with Boeing to get the MAX 10s. With the balance you have, do you think there could be a situation that Boeing came back for MAX 10s or even 8s and you'd be interested in even more aircraft? Thanks a lot.

Okay, thank you. And there's two questions. Look, the thing that overrides these record results this morning, record profits, record growth, is the war in the Middle East. And, you know, frankly, none of us know when that will finish or when that will wind up or when the Straits of Hormuz will reopen. It therefore makes sense for us to be very conservative. So we're saying this morning, if the war in the Middle East and the Straits of Hormuz remain closed until the end of March 2027, and oil remains at $150 a barrel, then our unit cost might rise about 5%. If that happens, there will be about three or four airlines left flying in Europe. We are, by far and away, the best-hedged airline in Europe. There's a lot of our competitors who are significantly poorly hedged. Most of them are hedged to the end of September, October, with very little hedging in place through to the winter months. But I do not expect the Strait of Hormuz to remain closed until March of next year. The U.S. has midterm elections in November. I have been reliably advised by a number of senior U.S. politicians that Memorial Day at the end of May is when those midterms kick off and that there will need to be a resolution of the situation by the end of May. However, if it does continue over those 12 months, there will be significant airline failures in Europe this winter. mainly from some competitor airlines who offer low fares but don't have low costs, have very stressed gearing on their balance sheet and are not as well hedged as Ryanair. And you see already many of those airlines are cutting capacity, you know, they've cut capacity up to 5-6% during April, May and into the June quarter. We are not cutting capacity, we are continuing with our own 4% traffic growth, and we will expect to continue that through the summer, again taking advantage of our very strategically strong fuel hedging position. And I would expect us to grow strongly. If unhedged oil remains higher for longer, there might be a slight dip in profitability this year, but we're talking slight dips, not anything that reflects the recent 20-25% supply in the share price. So we see this as an enormous buying opportunity We continue to meet shareholders. Oh, I wish we'd bought the last time there was a dip. Well, here's the dip, and here's your chance. And we are continuing to exercise our buyback, and we're getting tremendous value for shareholders by buying back stock in the market at these current prices. Do I think there'll be more aircraft? I'm not sure, Stephen. It was interesting. I was talking to one of the aircraft less hours a week ago who had taken aircraft back from the spirit failure in the U.S. One of the interesting things was they had repossessed 25 aircraft. They'd taken the 50 engines off the 25 aircraft and put them into the engine pool. They seem to be able to make more money out of spare engines than they are even releasing second-hand aircraft. We expect the current crisis to worsen the capacity situation in Europe, and the capacity situation in Europe was already significantly muted this year. We had originally thought that would lead to higher pricing. I still believe that will lead to higher pricing, but only when there's a resolution of the war in Iran and the Strait of Hormuz reopen. And then I think our pricing will rebound strongly and our unhedged fuel will fall significantly. But we're not there yet, and we don't know when that will happen. Are Boeing likely to turn around and offer us more MAX 10s? Sadly, no, because they can't make them fast enough at the moment. They still have to get it certified at the end of this year. Will there be more MAX 8s available? Highly unlikely. I mean, there's a huge backlog of demand out there for the two OEMs, Airbus and Boeing. None of any spare aircraft availability this side of 2031, 2032. But as Neil has said, we will always, in mind, be opportunistic. If there was, you know, if somebody was distressed and came to us offering us, you know, very low cost A3, or sorry, A3, 737-8 or 10, we would certainly look at it, and that's why we continue to maintain a very strong balance sheet. I should say, we have had, since the war in Iraq, we've commenced negotiations on reasonably modest lease extensions of the Airbus, the 26th Airbus fleet in Lauda. Most of those aircraft leases have ended in 28, 29. We're extending them at the moment out to 2030, 2031. Just so that we can match their retirement into the deliveries of 40 when we get up to the 40 or 50 aircraft deliveries of Boeing. You'll have seen this morning we've pulled back the traffic growth through FY28 and FY29 because Boeing can only deliver 15 aircraft each spring in those two years. By the time I get to FY30 they're delivering us 40, 50 aircraft and then I can resume strong capacity growth in Europe and take out the Airbus aircraft if we can't source some newer or newer or new or newer younger aircraft leases to replace the A321 fleet so we see lots of opportunity out there in the current climate our guidance I think it is sensible to assume a worst case and the worst case is that the war will continue in the streets of Hormuz will remain closed until March of 2027 but frankly none of us believe that to be the case So I think there's nothing but upside at the moment in our trading outlook, and there's nothing but upside in our share price currently. Thank you, Stephen. Next question.

Thank you. Our next question comes from Jamie Rowbotham from Deutsche Bank. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Hi, Michael. First, in terms of that best guess on flat pricing for Q2 – It was a similar outlook this time two years ago, and then in July downgraded to fares now seen materially lower. That was largely the OTA headwinds, which you recovered very well from in 2025. But I just wanted to get a sense, if there's little change in the next two months in terms of jet fuel prices, the Middle East conflict, how worried are you that you might have to deliver a similar message in two months' time, given the far more turbulent backdrop now? Then secondly, with the mid-single-digit guidance for increased full-year unit costs, is it a similar increase for the fuel piece versus the non-fuel piece? And with regard to the latter, maybe some additional colour on the magnitude of the crew pay increases in the new contract labour agreements. Thank you.

Thanks, Jamie. I'll ask Neil to do the prep for the second half of the question, which is the unit cost increase, which is almost largely the unhedged fuel, but nevertheless. Let me talk about pricing into Q2. Like, we're reflecting on a trend we've seen develop over the last, I would say, six, eight weeks. You know, previously, we were reasonably, the pricing into Q2, which is the July, August, September quarter, we were seeing modest mid-single-digit increases. And I think what has happened with the war in Iraq, in the Middle East, is there's been a degree of passenger hesitancy. You've lots of people who may already have made bookings to go long haul or across the Gulf carriers into the Middle East. They're holding off. Will it clear? What will happen? We think that will break very much in favor of European air travel. As we get to the school holidays now, it will break in favor of European air travel. We believe and we think we're vindicated with the strength of the close-in bookings, both volumes and pricing during May. We had another very strong weekend of bookings this weekend. We finished 50,000 bookings ahead of the target. Again, strong close-in pricing, strong close-in volumes. But we were a little bit off. I mean, you know, you're talking maybe 1% or 2% of the forward bookings out into June, July, end of June, July, August compared to this time last year. And we think people, I mean, anecdotally, lots of people are just waiting to see what will happen, will it be safe, can I travel? Now, I think two things come from that. One, people will travel. And, you know, families will go on holidays. The question is, will they go on holidays long haul or to the Middle East, or will they stay at home and go on holidays in Europe? And we think they will stay at home and go on holidays in Europe. So, you know, I am generally one of life's optimists. I think The war in the Middle East will get resolved in the next month or two, and then I think you will see both a decline in spot oil prices and a reasonable surge in bookings through to the mid into Q2. But I'm guessing that's not guided. At the moment, it makes sense for us to guide based on what we presently see, which is flat pricing and unit cost if it continues like this for the full year of 5%. But I think that is likely to be a worst-case scenario, and I think there will be lots of upside in those numbers if the war, if the Straits of War was reopened and oil prices settled back. I mean, they won't go all the way down to $67 a barrel immediately, but I do believe they will settle down well under $100 a barrel by the time we get to the back end of the summer. Neil, on the unit cost inflation,

Yeah, Jamie, good morning. I suppose the two key words in the outlook on unit cost inflation are if and could. If fuel remains at current level on the unhedged, then we could be looking at unit cost increase in the mid-single digits. To put it in context, when we were doing our budgets back in February-March, we were actually looking at unit cost if the curve had remained what it was then, being down on fuel on the per-passenger basis. It's now nudging above mid-single digits at this point in time based on where the forward fuel curve is. So without giving away too many secrets, if fuel is ahead of mid-single digits, then obviously ex-fuel unit costs are marginally below. So we're continuing to perform very well on the ex-fuel unit costs, locking in good airport deals, locking in good... long-term opportunities. We've got 29 more game changers in the fleet this summer, 4% more passengers spreading the cost over those, 20% more fuel efficient. So, you know, we've got a lot of issues in there. I don't plan to go into too much detail on the crew pay, but might ask Eddie if he wants to add any colour on that.

Yeah, I mean, if you look at what the CLAs, as they have ticked over from April to for renewal out there five years and you have, I'm not going to go into percentages, but there's an element of front-loading on those five-year deals and then more modest increases thereafter. But when you look at what pilots and cabin crew want, they want that longer-term certainty. They also want the favourable rosters back in the case of the pilots to keep continuing to roll the 5-4 rosters, which is an integral part of the whole scheduling process that everybody wins on. And then increasingly things like job security are raising their heads out there. I mean, pilots and Cameroon know exactly what happens in situations like this. And even with the sort of recent closures that we've had in Berlin and Thessaloniki, at least there are jobs with the growth elsewhere within the network And so we're going to continue to talk to the other pilot groups and cabin crew groups that are maturing on their deals at the moment, and we're working our way through those.

Thanks, Jamie. Thanks, Eddie. Next question, please.

Thank you. Our next question is from James Hollins from B&B Paribas. Please go ahead.

Thanks so much. Proper for you, Michael. Just running on to regionally, I was wondering if you were – wondering if you'd flag any regions showing particular hesitancy on bookings relative to others and also regionally whether you're worried about jet fuel shortages anywhere you sound very confident on jet fuel and then secondly you're not a man to ever waste a crisis I was wondering if you could just run us through your thoughts for this summer lots of chat about pricing but would you maybe use this summer to pressure some competitors or just let the demand cycle play out thanks

Thanks very much. Let me run through those briefly. There isn't much difference on the regional shape. I mean, you take our size and scale. I think the real trend for us this summer is that we are switching capacity away from country. We're closing the base in Berlin in October. We're closing the base in Thessaloniki. We're taking aircraft away from regional Spain, France. Vienna, the base is reducing. So any of those countries who still have an environmental tax on air travel or by airport fees, we're switching capacity away for those. And their traffic is in decline. For example, Vienna last week reported April traffic down 8%. We're switching those aircraft in pay for that capacity in pay for those airports in places like Sweden, remember the home of Greta Thunberg and flight shaming. New Transport Minister has abolished aviation taxes up there. Orlando has introduced a very imaginative growth incentive scheme, and we're growing like gangbusters up there. Similar situation in Slovakia, recently, where they're abolishing the municipal tax. And Albania, where they've not only abolished aviation tax, they've cut ATC fees, and the airport has introduced a growth incentive available to all airlines, which we are gobbling up very rapidly. But that doesn't mean there isn't, even in those new markets where we're growing strongly, there is a degree of hesitancy out into June, July, August. And I think, you know, it's not any major downturn, but this time of the year, we're having to slightly open up a little bit on pricing just to keep that forward booking curve in line with our own internal target. And we're running, you know, 0.2% ahead of our targets for May and June. We're bang on that target for July, August, and September. So we're very confident where we are. We're seeing this kind of trend for about the last two months. Further out, we're having to do a little bit of price discounts to keep the volumes going. And that's even while our competitors are taking out up to 4% or 5% of their own short-haul capacity. So there is a little bit of customer nervousness out there. We think that would break in favor of Stronger close-in bookings and pricing as we move through June, July, and August. But it very much depends on what and when the Straits of Hormuz and the conflict in Iran ends. Just a few short tips. I think there was a real concern there about a month, two months ago in Europe. At this point in time, and we do regular weekly meetings with our fuel team. We were in Paris at the conference last week. We now have almost zero concerns over fuel supplies across Europe. The only area with a slight reservation is Q8, which is the oil subsidiary of the state of Q8. It has about 25% market share in the UK. Even they are now switching their supplies or their imports to the Americas away from the Middle East. And so Europe is now essentially fully supplied with Jet A and Jet A1 coming from West Africa, Norway, the Middle East and some of the Central Eastern European countries are taking Jet A1 from Russia. So we do not now see any real risk to supplies. In the case of Q8 in the UK, our other large oil suppliers in the UK have said they will be able to supply us with fuel if there was any disruption with Q8. But we don't believe the Q80s are reasonably confident they will be able to meet our supply in full through the summer season. So I think our concern over the risk of jet fuel shortages has now receded. The challenge remains price, and price is very volatile, as you all know, and we think that will break meaningfully if there is some resolution of the confidence in around the Straits of Hormuz. And if it doesn't, I think you will see meaningful competitor failures or very dramatic capacity cuts from competitors who will be running out of cash as we move to the end of the summer through August, September, October. And then there was... Is that what the last was on competition?

I mean, I just called you a man never to waste a crisis. I was wondering if you were sort of thinking about something you'd built... Yeah, no, no.

I mean, look, yeah, we... Sorry. We never, ever, ever, I would say, you know, expand our... Take advantage of our competitors or do something or deploy capacity based on what competitors are doing. We couldn't care less. we deploy capacity based on where the airport incentives are at their greatest. And we have been struck with the extent to which, for example, you know, Albania, Tirana, which was a, you know, it has a 12 aircraft wind base, are really very concerned, like a lot of European airports, about some of their incumbent carriers' viability or survivability. And they are getting very aggressive with the They're getting very aggressive with the incentives or the growth incentives they're putting in place. We're seeing that play itself out across Europe. So we're also seeing it now very prominently in the Baltic states. So there are a number of... I would characterize our expansion this summer as not one of can we put pressure on competitors, but rather taking advantage of unique growth opportunities that are now being made available to us. Because a number of our airport partners are becoming increasingly concerned that either A, they're reliant on some of our flaky competitors, or B, and they said this to us themselves, are genuinely worried that some of our flaky competitors might not survive this winter. Mind you, would they be right in that? But we deploy capacity based on those markets where aviation taxes are being cut and airport incentive schemes are being improved. Thanks for the question. Next question, please.

Thank you. Our next question is from Maniba Kalyani from B of A. Please go ahead.

Maniba, hi.

Good morning.

Two questions, please. So, firstly, just wanted to go back on share buybacks. Michael, you talked about the bond and the capex, clearly, but you've also talked about the share price being a tractor. So, what are your thoughts right now on topping up the buyback? I know you have still a bit remaining in that. So, that's the first question. And then, secondly, this longer term – How are you thinking about that 12 to 14 profit per pack outlook if fuel prices remain elevated? Like could there be a scenario of this capacity cut from other airlines kind of supporting that outlook even in a high fuel environment, or is that not possible? Thank you.

Sorry, you broke up there. You were saying on the outlook on profit per packs, was there a period or did you say a year there or?

No, so if I correct me if I'm wrong, but I think previously you said you'd expect that to get to the 12 to 14 range. Oh, sorry, yeah, yeah. And so how are you thinking about that in this fuel environment, which could maybe take out capacity from others? So what are the moving parts in it, given that it's a different fuel environment right now?

Yeah, sure. Thanks, Vanita. Okay, let me do the two of those. I'm a share buyback. We're about 600 million through the existing, or 80% of the way through the existing 750 million buyback. We expect to complete that buyback. We're pretty much, we're very fettered in the way we can manage buybacks. So it all has to be board approved, announced to the market that we buy a certain percentage of the daily trade. And we continue to do that. Nevertheless, I think the war in the Middle East has been very helpful to us. It has brought the average cost of that buyback in the earlier days down from about $28, $28.50 a share. We're now down around $26.40 average price per share. Would we step up and come up with a new buyback in the next three or a couple of quarters? I think it's highly unlikely. Remember, the big deployment of cash currently was to fund the repayment of the final bond debt. And to put that in some context, if we're going to repay a 1.2 billion bond, a bond we threw down during COVID, we'd pay only 0.85% on that. But if we were to try to refi that today, the cost would be about 4%. I think it demonstrates the strength of the Ryanair business model and our cash flows. We came out of COVID with $4 billion of gross cash. And in the last five years, we have now paid down that $4 billion of gross debt. We have a gross debt of $4 billion at the end of COVID. We have now paid down that $4 billion in gross debt over the last five years while funding buybacks, while funding shareholder dividends and also funding gross capex on the remainder of the game changer plea. If I look forward over the next four years, so I don't think we'll do another share buyback in the next couple of quarters or certainly not before the end of this calendar year. But we're then looking into a period of three, four, five years where I think we'll continue to be very strongly cash generative, but we have no bond debt to refinance and refund. We'll also have a two-year kind of capex holiday through FY28 and FY29 because we're only taking 15 March 10. So you can take it that there will be a continuation of both dividends and very strong buybacks with our spare cash through FY28 and FY29, but not this summer. This summer we're using the buyback cash to pay down the last of our bonds at 1.2 billion, and that gets paid down next week. What do I think of the outlook of our 12 to 14 euro profit per pastor? Frankly, I think it remains unchanged. This is a short-term shock to the system. You know, the war in Iran was somewhat unexpected by the market, certainly the closure of the Straits of Hormuz. This is no different to what we've seen before with 9-11, the Gulf War, the second Gulf War, Russia's illegal invasion of Ukraine. There's been a short-term fuel spike. What happens is a short-term fuel spike, Reiner's hedging comes to the fore, which protects the vast majority of our earnings during that period of volatility. And then the situation resolves itself, oil prices re-fix, and everybody goes back to normal again. Will there be a disruption this year? Again, it's too early to say, because we don't know how long the Straits of Hormuz will remain closed. If, as I suspect is likely to be the case, Trump will find some resolution or declare victory by the end of May when the mid-term election hearing kicks off, then I think we will... I would be more optimistic than our current guidance of unit costs going up by mid-single digits this year. I think we'll do better than that. And I think you'll see more confidence return to passengers, bookings and pricing during the summer. But much depends also what happens this winter with our, you know, the flaky competitors around Europe, the ones who are not particularly well hedged, the ones who are hugely, have very large net debt positions. I mean, one of our airline's competitors recently borrowed 30 million from its local government just to get it through the summer trading period. That loan is due to be repaid in August. There is no possibility of that loan being repaid in August. So I would expect there will be competitor failures in Europe. And then who knows, maybe the €12 to €14 profit per passenger will actually come forward because there will be even more constrained capacity in Europe and stronger pricing. But like everybody else, we're in a short-term period of uncertainty. We hunker down. We trade on the strength of our balance sheet. But if you look at our record over the last four years, five years, when we have paid down $4 billion of bond debt, as I look forward into the next four or five years, we have no bond debt to repay. And that kind of cash generation will be available. And the board has been consistent over the last five years in saying if there is surplus cash, it will be deployed to pay down debt. We now have no more debt to pay. And the balance will be returned to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks but I would not expect another or a short another or another short term buyback we're very content to finish out the current program which we expect will happen by sometime mid to end August before the AGM and then pay down our bond debt and then I would look forward into calendar 2027 calendar 2028 the resumption of reasonably strong buyback activity if profitability and cash flow when profitability and cash flows return to some pre-Middle Eastern War norms. Thanks, Madiba. Next question, please.

Thank you. Our next question is from Connor Dwyer from Citi. Please go ahead.

Hi. Hey. Morning, Michael. Morning, Neil. First question is on that kind of CapEx point. I think consensus is roughly around 2 billion for the coming year. And you're talking a little bit around the CapEx holiday in the years following that, presumably on slower maximum deliveries. I was wondering if you could give anything indication on where you expect CapEx to roughly end up at for that kind of level. And then secondly, just around airport charges at the moment, you know, the last quarter tracks down those single digits and, you know, you continue to kind of turn the network in that sense. I'm wondering how we should kind of expect airport charges to progress over the next kind of two to three years if indeed, you know, you continue to grow as you're selling the airports, you will do so.

Okay, Don, thank you. That's an opportunity. Neil, will you take the CapEx question for the next couple of years? And then I might ask Eddie Wilson, the Reiner Dax CEO, to comment on the airport charges. Eddie and Jason McGinnis, airport charges and our churn discussions for the next two or three years.

Connor, good morning. How are you doing? CapEx, as you said, roughly about $2 billion. In FY27, give or take, it could be slightly lower or it could be slightly higher depending on the timing of CapEx on the engine shop. There'll be fairly modest CapEx in there on the engine shops this year. The lion's share of CapEx is maintenance with some deliveries in the spring of next year and some PDPs starting to build up. Similarly, the following year, haven't really gone into detail there. I think I've previously said somewhere between 2.5 and then 3 billion. I wouldn't be moving usually away from that. Again, it'd be more skewed towards maintenance than aircraft deliveries. And then we kind of get into the peak of the order and the engine shop capex after that. But I'm not going to go into too much detail there at this point in time.

Just on the airport. Yeah, just on airport costs, you know, like a fairly aggressive target with the New Roots team on what we do in terms of airport costs because we just have this constant battle between regulated airports, things they can do what the hell they like, and on the one side you've Dublin out there with a 5.6 billion capex out there with no extra capacity in it whatsoever, and then you've got the likes of IENA down there with like 11 billion plus heading into this difficult environment whereby they think they can defy the laws of gravity in terms of attracting traffic. The same thing plays out with the frat ports and banshees in this world on that side of the house. And then on the other side of the house, as Michael has talked about there, you've got municipal tax in Asia, you've got the Swedish tourism tax, you've got all the deals whereby with the smaller airports that actually add up, you've got the long-term... deal that we've completed with MAG not just in London where it's the only airport that can grow now without any extra airport infrastructure or runway infrastructure in the next 10 years and that's up against our competitors on a significantly higher cost base and that gap is only going to get wider in London so it's a constant battle there you know like I'd be trying to keep that flat and nudge it down if I can over the next number of years, but it's a difficult job to do. But nobody's getting any capacity off Ryanair unless our average costs go down. And our average costs go down by lowering charges and airports have to work with us to extract more money from parking or duty-free or whatever it is. But we've got to have, you know, sustainable commercial relationships with airports that have to work as hard as us in terms of investing and delivering more passengers and more passengers and growth. Jason, do you want to add on to that?

Yeah, the other thing I would say, Eddie, is that increasingly the conversations we're having with airports is they're increasingly worried about where the growth is going to come from. There's a huge amount of airport infrastructure coming into Europe over the next five to ten years, and there's very few airlines, or indeed only one airline, Ryanair, that would deliver the growth into this new infrastructure. So increasingly the conversation is they're worried about competitor capacity, and I think that's where you're seeing us growing this year. We're growing Polish capacity by 10%. plus 22% this year. We're adding eight aircraft into Poland, open the base in Tirana, four aircraft growing capacity by close to 60%, and we will take it out of the likes of Germany and Austria. where they are not being sensible on costs. The Berlin seven-base aircraft closure being a prime example of somewhere where we've reduced capacity by 50%, and that capacity is migrating to Poland, Albania, and Slovakia, and we're going to continue to do so. But I think there's going to be lots of opportunities across this winter in terms of competitive capacity coming out of the market.

Wonderful. Thanks very much.

Thanks, Jason. Can I just add to that, you know, to give you a flavour, you know, you have an airport like Sweden, which, you know, four or five years ago was nobody wants to fly anymore. We're all listening to Gretchen Sundberg, flight shaving, et cetera, et cetera. You've got a really good new transport minister up there going, this is stupid, we're losing business. He's abolished the environmental tax. And Orlando, you know, has introduced very imaginative traffic growth schemes. Piranha, for example, not only have they abolished the tax, cut ATC fees, and growth incentive schemes. And you contrast that with somewhere like Dublin, you know, just a bunch of idiots. You know, they have a traffic cap that they've been sitting on for the last 20 years. Government promised 18 months ago to remove it as soon as possible. 18 months later, nothing done. And then these dumbos in Dublin have come up with a CapEx program of 5.6 billion for the next five years. 25% of that, or about 1.5 billion, is an allowance for inflation and contingencies over the next five years. Now, there is a risk that inflation might take up from 2% to 3%, but it's not going to cost them an extra $1.5 billion. But that's the kind of messing that these regulated monopoly airports are still engaged with. And as we said last week, if that goes ahead, we simply will stop growing. Overnight, we will stop growing in Dublin, and if Reiner stops growing in Dublin, Dublin doesn't grow. We have lots of other airports in Sweden and Albania. Slovakia, for example, again, the new government abolished the environmental taxes. They cut ATC fees by nearly 50%. And the airport has significantly reduced its airport fees. We, as a result, have switched a load of aircraft out of high-cost, high-tax Vienna up the road to Slovakia. and in April Vienna's traffic went down by 8% and Slovakia recorded a record 170% growth in traffic April over April so I would expect those churn discussions to continue to play out over the next couple of years while morons in Dublin and the likes of them you know come up with gain the regulatory system by coming up with these absolutely stupid for example they want to spend nearly a billion in Dublin putting air bridges on the Ryanair terminal despite the fact that we don't use air bridges. And we deliver 80% of the traffic through that terminal. But they have come up with this, what a euphemism, the majority of airlines using Pier 1 want air bridges. But the airport that delivers, the airline that delivers 80% of the traffic won't use them and won't pay for them. But Preserver does. And the great advantage we have is the strength of our turn negotiations. And as Eddie said, the strength of our pipeline of 300 aircraft deliveries. No airport in Europe, if it wants to grow, and most of them now recognise they need to encourage Ryanair to grow there because we're the ones that will be deploying 40, 50 aircraft a year. Some of those aircraft deployments will involve taking aircraft out of Dublin and deploying them somewhere else. Unless somebody in our useless government eventually passes legislation abolishing the tax and finally takes a stick to these morons in Dublin airport, who think they just keep pissing away billions and the customer will pay. They won't. Next question.

Thank you. Our next question is from Harry Goers from JP Morgan. Please go ahead.

Harry, hi.

Hi. Morning, Michael. Morning, Neil. First one, just for the Q1, I wanted to get a little bit more colour on what you're seeing exactly in terms of the close-in booking so far. I mean, clearly there's some weakness or stimulation needed at some point in the curve, but have you seen more of a positive acceleration or sort of positive infection in close-in pricing in recent weeks, or has it been quite consistently strong since the start of the crisis? And then the second one, probably for Neil, just on the ex-fuel unit cost inflation this year, it feels like some of it is maybe just timing related around staff and maintenance, maybe seeing a bigger impact this year. In the healthy years, is that kind of fair with the max pens coming next year and that staff pay inflation being front-end loaded? Thanks a lot.

Thanks, Harry. Let me give you a flavour of what's going on. If you take, say, for example, the month of April, you know, and April was artificially weak this year because the first weekend of the April school holidays fell into March. We entered April about 0.2% where we were ahead of target. But despite the fact that Easter was early in April, the close-in bookings were stronger and stronger. We finished up the month about 0.5% ahead of target. Now, half a percent is sort of like 100,000 passengers. So we finished almost 100,000 passengers ahead of our passenger target for the month of April, and that was all thanks to stronger, very strong close-in near-term bookings and stronger pricing. However... If we are, at the moment, if pricing remains weaker out through June, July, August, or we're having to marginally, and I keep emphasizing this, you know, we're having to maybe take 1% or so off the pricing, you know, to keep the further out bookings building. And then the closing is strong and the pricing is strong. We still see that finishing up if that continues through those three months of June, July, and August. And I don't think it will because I don't think the Straits of Hormuz, the uncertainty in the Middle East can continue into June, July, August. Our Trump will lose not just the House but the Senate as well. If it does continue, then we think pricing moves from being up mid-single digits in those peak summer months to being flattish in those peak summer months. We don't think it goes negative. But I can't rule it out either. If there was some untoward adverse development in the Middle East or the Straits of Hormuz, never say never. But I would be much more optimistic that I think we are being conservative in the guidance today and that the outturn will continue to improve and be better, partially because people will inevitably go on holidays one way or the other. I just think the holiday in Europe or in European resorts in Portugal, Italy, Spain, Greece this summer, many more will fly with us to Turkey, Albania and Morocco because they can avoid Europe's mad ETS taxation by simply flying to neighbouring non-EU countries. and that means we'll reflect itself by the time we get to the first or second quarter, slightly more optimistic tone on volume and pricing. Neil, on the XU unit, Bob?

Hi, Harry. Yeah, you're bang on the money there. Some of it is timing, absolutely. If I look at the maintenance side of things, we'll be taking the max tent in, which has got full warranties, which will help offset some of the maintenance. Equally, that hospital... visit that we refer to is purely a technical accounting thing where because there's a component that has to be overhauled to 10,000 cycles which we accelerated a bit of depreciation on that but we get that back on the back end and then on the staffing side as we said about 18 months ago we're already recruiting for the MAX 10s coming in so we're taking in more cadets at this point in time so that we're self-sufficient for first officers and indeed then command upgrades to captains when we get to the peak and the deals that we're doing, as I said, on the pre-recorded session on our website this morning. An element of front-loading on some of the pay increases, but on the back end, the productivity from the Max 10 will help offset. So, yeah, there's a fair element of timing in there on the numbers.

Thanks, Neil. Thanks, Harry. Next question, please.

Thank you. Our next question is from Savanthi Sif from Raymond James. Please go ahead.

Hi, Harry.

For the first question, I was just kind of curious if, you know, for any of the 15 MAX 10s that you expect by next spring, if any of those have, if Boeing has started building them to kind of give you greater confidence of the delivery. And then just a second question, you know, now that you've declared that multi-year engine materials agreement with PFM, Curious if you have a better idea of, you know, how you expect maintenance costs to be stepping up versus your current contract and just how much of a competitive advantage that might be versus kind of market rates.

Thanks, Abby. Again, Neil, I'll ask you to take the second half of that question, please. On Boeing, yes, they have started building the MAX-10. They expect by the end of this year they'll have about 40, I think it's 30 or 40 MAX-10s built. some of which our first delivery is due in January of 2027. So some of ours will actually be built before the end of this year. But it's all down to certification. Now, Boeing has been making very positive noises on certification. We separately have also been in dialogue with the European Safety Agency, who have to certify the aircraft for Europe. They've been very complimentary of the work that Boeing has done. They don't see that there will be any significant delays of the certification, but obviously that depends on Boeing and the FAA. And we get a sense also from meeting with the FAA that there's a better relationship there under the current administration, a more supportive FAA. They want to see American manufacturing succeed, and they certainly appear to be more supportive of Boeing and certification. But there's always a risk of slip-ups. But I think we take great heart from the turnaround that the new team in Boeing, Kelly Ortenberg, Stephanie Pope, on our last 29 game-changer deliveries, which were delivered to us almost a year late, each one of those aircraft were defect-free and were delivered on average one or two months earlier than the original delayed delivery date. So Boeing are doing a really good job on the shop floor in Seattle, also in Wichita, taking clean hulls in Wichita, Seattle, producing clean aircraft, no defects. we're actually pulling some of our engineers back out of Wichita and Seattle now because there's no reason for them. So I would be reasonably optimistic that we're going to get those first 15 aircraft in the spring of 2027. That gives us capacity growth to get to about 223 million passengers by FY28 and close to 230 by FY29. And then we start stepping it up, growing at about 15 million passengers a year through 3031, 3233. The 300 million passenger target by 2034 is unchanged, and as I said to him for my two-year request, I see no reason to change my somewhat optimistic outcome that profit per passenger will rise towards 12, 14, 15 euros per passenger over the next four or five years, and I believe the current crisis in the Middle East and the States will accelerate that profit growth, although it may take a hit this year, but it will be temporary and short-lived. Thanks, Savvy. Neil, the CFM engines and maintenance.

Yeah, Savvy, I think we've discussed this a few times before. I mean, the key benefit of the engine shop is, first and foremost, we'll be able to put the engines through faster to our own shops than anywhere else. That obviously means significant efficiencies and reduces the number of spare engines that we need to host. In the inventory, the key benefit of the in-housing of the engine shop is compared to what we would pay if we replaced what has been an outstanding power body hour deal for almost 25 years with CFM. If we were to try and renegotiate that deal as is today, you'd be locking in 4 to 5x. the rates that we've been paying by doing it ourselves. And some of this will depend on, you know, the final grant aid and the labour support and everything else that we get, and we're not over the line on that yet. But you're probably looking at somewhere close to 2x by bringing in a house as opposed to paying 4 to 5x by leaving it out with third parties. So I think that will massively increase the gap between ourselves and our competitors over the next number of years. It also means our competitors are going to be tied up in engine shops for significantly longer because they leave their fleet unlike Ryanair, who don't and therefore can get them through a lot quicker by just putting on new parts and moving an engine down the line. So it's the operational efficiency and it's the saving compared to going third party, which is the key benefit from this. And I think it's going to prove to be a very smart decision for Ryanair in years to come.

Yeah, as you're aware, you know, about 85% of the cost of engine maintenance is the spare parts. It's not labor. You look at the 30 spare Leaf 1B deal we announced that we did during the last 12 months. You know, we bought those aircraft from our partners in CFM. You know, at a deeply discounted price, they wanted, you know, and we think we'll be able to repeat that kind of success or buy during periods of distress. large quantities of spare parts at a very advantageous discount for both our engine maintenance and for our shareholders. Thanks, Abby. Next question, please.

Thank you. Our next question is from Dudley Shanley from Good Buddy. The line is now open.

Dudley, hi. Morning, Michael. Just one question for me. Just in the context of the root churn that you've had over the last few years and the capacity constraint that we've discussed a few times, With the current short-term issues in fuel, do you think that slowing of growth in the European aviation space has any of the higher-charging countries starting to think about reversing and, I guess, following that Swedish model that you mentioned earlier? Thank you.

Thanks, Toby. Yes, the answer, of course, is yes. I mean, for example, the Austrian government at the moment is considering a new budget cycle. They're making a budget statement in June. We know already because they've admitted already they're looking at reducing the aviation tax, which is currently 12 euros per passenger. Now, we've been quite aggressive. Forget reducing it. You know, either abolish it or don't waste your dime. We will not be going back with any growth to Vienna. All of Vienna's growth is moving up the road to Slovakia. where the new transport minister is delighted with himself and the record traffic growth that Bratislava Airport is enjoying. In fact, last week, a new imaginative bus company has now started running five-day bus services from the centre of Vienna direct to Bratislava Airport, taking advantage of the enormous surge in demand from Viennese citizens and visitors who are now getting there via, you know, the much lower cost of Bratislava Airport. And we think that will, that trend will continue. We will continue to move aircraft out of countries and airports where taxes or airport fees are high, or where, as I said, in Dublin you have the ECO. Government-owned monopolies, you know, operating some 1880 regulated monopoly, gaming some dumb regulator, looking to double airport fees over the next five years. You know, you would simply, growth will come to a shuddering halt. But the problem is we have an incompetent government who can't even deliver on their, you know, 18 months later, still haven't delivered on their election promise to abolish the cap at Dublin Airport, quote, as soon as possible. You know, even for the snail pace growth, snail pace delivery of an Irish government, 18 months does not consist of as soon as possible, particularly when you have a 20 seat majority. So, We do expect there will be more regions in Italy will reduce taxes, and that taxes now are coming down. The big issue here is whether we can persuade the European Commission, led by that dullard Ursula von der Leyen, who has spent the last two years talking about the competitiveness of the European economy, but doing absolutely nothing about it. Can we finally persuade her and the other top Europeans that it's time to abolish ETS taxes? which are only applied on European citizens on intra-EU flights, while we exempt the Americans, the Gulf, the Asians, and everybody else traveling to and from Europe. This makes no sense. This year alone, Ryanair passengers will pay €1.4 billion in ETS taxes. It adds about €7 to every ticket. Well, the first of all, the lady is serious about competitiveness, and we don't think she is, because, frankly, all she does is talk about it and do nothing. It starts by abolishing ETS, which would reduce airfares in Europe by between 7 and 10 euros for every single European citizen. We'll keep pushing, but I wouldn't expect anything inefficiently coming out of useless von der Leyen. Next question, please.

Thank you. Our next question is from Riori Talanon from RBC. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Riori, hi. Hi. Yeah, good morning. Firstly, on hedging, if the war drags on, how long do you expect to hold out for hedging fuel requirements in full year 28? And then, secondly, just on the balance sheet, why is 4 billion the right number for a targeted cash balance? Thank you.

Hi, Graeme. What we're doing, hedging at the moment, obviously, we haven't started. If you look forward or out into... We're 80% hedged for FY27. The current fall rate over the four quarters of FY27, you could be hedging today at about $120 a barrel. Spot last Friday on Jeff was about $136 a barrel. How does FY28 hedge today at about $90, $92 a barrel? So, you know, there's a very deep contango in the market where the further out you go, the further prices fall away. I would be willing to, I mean, certainly we could remain unhedged into the summer of 2027 up until about September, October of this year. And I, you know, you speak to any expert, nobody really believes that the war in Iran or the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed out of September, October of this year. But that doesn't root out the possibility. There must be always some possibility. I think the key pressure point as we move through this summer will be the U.S. midterm elections. and whether Trump can keep the House and the Senate. And so I think there will be a change of tone and strategy when it comes to the Middle East, and particular gas prices in North America. But I would not expect us to start hedging into summer 27 if prices remain elevated like this until about September, October. And then I think we would still be in a position to do it. You know, you'd be looking at going up from $67 a barrel now to maybe a price in mid-90s. But if that happens, there will be a number of very large airline failures in Europe this autumn. So, you know, what we would lose on the fuel hedging going forward into summer 27, we would more than gain on, you know, the likes of some of these airlines in Europe who are unprofitable and are poorly hedged. They would simply fail. And you look, obviously, Spirit is the most daring example of that here in North America in recent days. Why is $4 billion the right number? 4 billion was the number we went into, you know, we went into COVID with 4 billion gross cash and 4 billion of gross debt, zero net debt position. You know, we do operate in a cyclical capital intensive business. This is a really phenomenal business. It is very profitable. It churns out huge amounts of cash and we have used that cash to repay 4 billion in bank debt in bond debt over the last five years. But it's also an industry that's very susceptible to external economic shocks like the Gulf War, Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and now you have the war in the Middle East and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. So I think we're a brilliant airline. We're certainly a very profitable, very cash-productive airline. But we're also an airline that is the subject of external shocks that we can do nothing about. And we believe that 4 billion is the right kind of number that we should be aiming for. That doesn't mean that if an opportunity came along, we wouldn't let that cash drop down to maybe 2.5, 3 billion. We would if the right opportunity came along. and also that we wouldn't let it rise from $4 to $4.5 or $5 billion. Now, $5 billion, we don't need it too much. So everything over $4 billion, and we will build ourselves back up to that in the next 12 months, everything over and above that we will be deploying in dividends and shareholder buybacks. Neil, do you want to add to that $4 billion target?

No, I think, as you said, COVID is hopefully as bad as it ever gets in here, and $4 billion serves us very well. through that crisis. But equally, a crisis turns up opportunities and I'd hate to be left scrambling and a price taker in the market for a bond or something. So it's a good level to be at. And I would just add on the hedging side that while we haven't added to the jet, we have been jumping on dollar weakness, which is the other side of the hedging coin. And we've now got 30% of FY28, H1. hedged at 120 on the euro dollar, which is better than the 115 that we have this year. So we'll continue to lock in on dollar weakness, and as Michael said, we'll get back to the jet in due course.

And you should, I mean, we might update you on where we are on the CapEx dollars, Neil, on the particular firm orders.

Again, jumping on days where the dollar weakness, we've now got 60% of the 150 firm orders hedge that's just over 123 on the euro dollar so we're locking in significant savings there this is a keenly priced aircraft deal and in euro terms we're now locking in cheaper seats which is good for the Catholics but also cheaper seats which is good over a longer period of time for the P&L so pretty pleased at that and the treasury team remain ready and able to jump on every weakness that we see in the dollar to expand that further.

Yeah, and you see that also reflected in the lease extensions we're doing on the A320 fleet in the current difficult environment, particularly post the spirit failure in the US. Next question, please.

Thank you. Our next question is from Antoine Madra from Bernstein. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Antoine, everyone. Thanks. First, I was wondering with the AIR Showcraft, is it profitable to fly the A320 SEALs, or do you need to think about retiring earlier the Starfleet? Sorry, hang on.

Antoine, sorry. You need to speak into the speaker. It's very hard to hear you there. I didn't hear any of that for the first half of that question, please. Can you repeat?

Okay, so can you hear me well now?

Yes, just about.

Okay. So, John, I was wondering, with higher fuel price, is it still profitable to fly the S320TOs, or do you need to think about retiring your load that's separate? And second, when did your ancillary revenue for passenger fall in Q4, and what can we expect for full year 27 in ancillaries? Thank you.

Yeah, Neil, I'll ask you just a comment of maybe tracing to you the ancillary question. Can I just, if I've understood the question, Antoine, it is, Would the higher oil price affect whether we would take the A320 CO or look for NEOs? Is that the question?

No, no, just if it's still profitable currency to fly the A320 COs.

Yeah, so should we keep flying the loudest in the current high fuel environments, the A320s that we have?

I mean, the answer to that question is yes, if the lease rates are falling. And the great joy of the strike in the Middle East is, again, an opportunity where extending these leases, which are coming to end of life, but have, you know, materially reduced monthly lease rates, and the monthly lease rentals were already significantly below market. You know, a lot of the lessors of these aircraft, they're coming to the end of life. They have Ryanair on their, kind of, as a customer list. and the risk of taking back these aircraft that are getting to end of life and trying to market them somewhere else in the world, or just take a modest hit on the lease rentals and on the re-delivery conditions and extend the deal with the Ryanair Group for another year or two, seems to be attractive. So, the answer to the question is, no, they're not the most fuel-efficient aircraft, but if the lease rates are falling, we would always be happy to take advantage of those kind of opportunities. And remember... You know, Antoine, we only account for 26 aircraft out of the 675-odd aircraft, 650-odd aircraft fleet. Most of that fleet now is the game-changers, which are offering us 4% more seats and burning 60% less fuel. So in actual fact, our fuel consumption on a per-master basis will continue to modestly decline with the benefit of the game-changers. will begin to significantly decline as we move into the March 10th in 27, 28, 29. And, Neil, will you take the hour? Tracy, maybe, take the ancillary question, please.

Yeah, I'll just... Yeah, I'll just... Let Tracy take it, Neil. Yeah, we've just seen a slight dip of about 1% in Q4, but I think we have to look at the overall. So, over the year, we were up 2%, and we would hope to see that continue into next year, kind of 1% to 2% range.

Yeah, I mean, it's not unusual to see a dip in Q4, given that, you know, we had one week of Easter in there, which are pushing people in the dog days of January and the weeks outside of the midterms in February. So I wouldn't read anything into that. We guided 2% passenger growth last year. We came in exactly bang on. 2%. And the FY27 will be somewhere between 1% and 2% per passenger, again, above traffic. Okay.

Thanks, everyone. Next question, please.

Our next question comes from Axel Stass from Morgan Stanley. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Hi. Two questions on my side, please. One a bit more medium-term and one a bit more short-term. On the medium-term one, It comes back on the commentary on hedging in fiscal year 28. So if I understood correctly, you don't want to hedge anytime soon for fiscal year 28, but how do you plan to offset that? Do you speak up in the field then? Is it just with fares going to next year? How should we look at this? And then short term on the salary negotiations, sorry to come back on this, but can you just confirm what percentage of the staff cost base is being renegotiated? And is it fair to issue mid-single digits in creating year one and then low-single digits from year two onwards? Thank you.

Thanks, Axel. Sorry, the first part, I mean, I need to give again more color on maybe Dara's use of the salary negotiations. Could you just explain the first part of the hedging? So if we, you talked about if we hedged into FY28 at higher prices, how do we think we would pay for that? Is that the question?

start to hedge in the coming months? Jack, can you hear me?

Yeah.

Sorry. My question was more... Go ahead, Jack. Sorry. If you don't start to hedge in the coming months for fiscal year 28, even using the forward curve, for example, how do you plan to pass on the fuel cost inflation? Is it through pricing? Is it something else that we should be aware of? Thank you.

Again, I come back to the point, if the oil prices remain higher for longer through into, for example, say, the third quarter, our fiscal calendar, the December quarter, or the December quarter, if oil prices remain higher into that quarter, then I think you would see a start to put down some hedging into the summer of 2027, so FY28, at maybe, take a number, $90, $95, $85 per barrel, materially higher than this year's oil price. But there will, at that point in time, be casualties here among the European airlines. You know, there are people who are less... I mean, we're 80% hedged out to March 2027. Most of Europe's second-tier airlines are hedged generally out to about October. And some of them, while they claim to be hedged, aren't hedged at all. They have caps and collars. But what would happen, I think, if there were higher oil prices out into 2020, into summer of 2028, It is inevitable that the legacy airlines will be bringing in fuel surcharges. I think it's inevitable that there will be far less capacity available in the system next summer, partly because of failures and partly because capacity simply will be grounded. And I would think there'd be, you know, a significant upward pressure on pricing. But, you know, I don't expect that to be the outcome. I expect by the time we get to the end of May or June, there will be a, you know, Trump will be declaring victory in the Middle East. The Strait of Hormuz will be reopened. The focus will be over here on the midterm elections in November, and that there will be a much more optimistic environment, political environment here, and economic environment in relation to oil prices. And maybe Daryl or Eddie, do you want to take the salary negotiation question?

Yeah, Daryl. Yeah, go ahead, Daryl. You go first. Oh, he dropped off. Okay, sorry. No, what you have, like, don't forget, in the existing deals that we have, there are already pay increases built in, you know, for April in any event. So you have, you know, there's only three or four.

April 26th and 27th.

Yeah, like, I mean, they'll go on for the next year. What we did see is that there is some appetite for, among some of the groups to go earlier and we've facilitated that like anything that brings you know having the long term stability out there the Italian pilots were one of those groups and were in active negotiation so like the simple answer is 100% of the pilots are covered by pay increases because they either have new deals coming which will be higher because there will be an element of front loading or the existing ones which run out next April still have had their pay increase in April And that pertains for the cabin crew as well. So, I hope that answers your question.

And remember, actually, what we're doing here, you know, we're putting in place new five-year pay deals, which will run across a dramatic uptick in productivity, staff productivity, coming from the delivery of MAX-10 aircraft, which starts in the spring of 27, runs out over the next five years, out to 2030, 2031, out to five years of these pay deals. When, you know, our basically captains and tapas will be flying 20% more passengers on a per-flight basis and burning 20% less oil. So it does make sense from an operating and from an efficiency point of view to share the upside of that with our people by putting in place new five-year pay deals. Now, where there's an element of front-ending, the incentive for the staff is you get the pay increase front-ended. But we'll get the productivity gain over the lifetime of that five-year deal. Next question, please.

Our next question is from Gerald Koo from Panyo Liberum. Your line is... Please go ahead.

Morning, everyone. Think for me if I can. Talk a bit about airport charges earlier in the call. I was just wondering whether you could give an indication of the average duration of your airport charges deals. How long are you locking these savable terms in for? And finally, Michael, in terms of your potential or probable contract extension, is there a particular reason why you've landed on four years? And should we expect this to be the final extension?

I mean, very difficult.

Really, the duration of the airport deals, it very much depends on airport by airport basis. Some of them now run out into 2035, 2036. Particularly, for example, you had an example like London Stansted where they're investing a billion pounds extending the terminal facility and growing the capacity from 30 to about 45 million passengers Piranha and you know I would highlight that as and they want the security with growth commitments that Reiner will fill those facilities if they put in those extensions Stamford are going to grow capacity from 30 to 45 million passengers about you know 50% growth in capacity for a cost of 1 billion meanwhile Dublin proposed to spend 5.6 billion with no increase in capacity I mean you know 1.5 billion of inflation $600 million on, you know, vanity sustainability projects, including $7 million planting bloody wildflowers, you know, which could only come about with a kind of government-owned monopoly pissing away money. So the length of the deal, typically, when we're doing extensions or somebody wants growth, typically it's four to five years. But in some cases where they're committing extensive capex on facility enhancement, like in Bergamo, for example, they run out longer, typically out to 2035, 2034, 2035, 2036. So it's courses for courses. What I would say, though, almost every airport in which we operate, where we have a four- or a five-year deal, they're back to us within two years going, can we have another, more growth, can you extend again? And we are, I mean, there's no exaggeration, Jason McGuinness has seen the news that you can barely get in the office doors at the moment with the numbers of airports that are sleeping in our reception area looking for meetings, looking for growth, partly because they're very worried that some of their existing incumbent carriers who are heavily intended or less well hedged or don't have fuel hedging in place will not survive or will dramatically cut back on their capacity growth. For example, you know, Bratislava where we're growing very rapidly now. One of our competitors' airlines promised to grow their base from two to five aircraft. Apparently, then a week later, they changed their minds and told Bratislava the fifth aircraft isn't coming. Bratislava called us the same morning and said, there's another spare stand here. Do you want to put another aircraft in here? We'll give you payable return. So don't tell anybody, but I'm coming down to Bratislava next week to announce another aircraft that our base will go up by one more aircraft this May 8th year, solely because one of our less competent competitors didn't honour their kind of five aircraft base deal. And on my contract, you know, sorry, why 2032? Jesus, this is 2026. 2032 looks like a reasonable extension, you know, I was offering 2030. The board wants 2033. We set it on 2032. We're not going to breach the confidentiality that the board wants to discuss that with some of the larger consultant individual shareholders, but there are very aggressive, and I mean very aggressive, profit and share price targets on the share option purchase agreements. And other than that, I get paid a very modest basic salary and bonus, no pension and no anything else. But, you know, it has always been my philosophy. You know, I want my remuneration rewards tied to a very ambitious profit and share price kind of target. The last time around in 2019, I had to almost double the profit or almost double the share price. And I think shareholders, you know, would reasonably assume that the next set of targets are not dissimilar to that. But, again, the board wants a brief, the main shareholders on that first. Next question, please. Thanks, Carol.

Thank you. We currently have no further questions, so I'll hand back over to Michael O'Leary for closing remarks. Fantastic.

Okay, folks, thank you very much. Again, may I conclude by just reminding everybody, we've had a record year, record traffic, record profit. You know, we have been overtaken by events in the Middle East in the last two months, but I do not expect that that will last very long, maybe another month or two. And then I believe, you know, the Straits of Hormuz will reopen, oil prices will settle down, people will go back to booking with confidence during the big summer months, and Ryanair is incredibly well positioned with 4% more seats this summer. Well-controlled, a remarkable unit cost discipline in a marketplace where none of our competitors, the comp gap between us and our competitors is widening. We are really well hedged out of March 2027. That gives us incredible financial strength. We will pay down the last of our bond debt next week and we will be essentially debt-free. And that puts us in an enormously strong position to continue then to grow capacity the next couple of years Take delivery of MAX 10 aircraft that will transform our operating economics because they have 20% more seats to burn, 20% less fuel. And you guys today can buy all this incredible advantage at, I don't know, 22, 23 euros a share. And so I don't want to hear anybody telling you for the next two or three years, oh, I wish we'd bought it the last time there was a dip. Here's the dip. We're buying. We're very happy with our share buyback program. The average cost has dramatically come down over the last two or three months. And for that, we're extremely grateful. And we look forward. We have an extensive roadshow with all of the senior managers on the road across Ireland, the UK, Europe, East Coast and West Coast America. I myself, I'm in New York for the next two days, Chicago on Wednesday, Boston on Thursday. If anybody wants a meeting, if anybody wants to be reminded of how strong Ryanair's fundamentals are and how profitable and cash-generative we are, please ask either City, Good Bodies or Davies for a meeting and we look forward to meeting you. Other than that, if anybody wants to come to Dublin at some stage over the summer and visit us or see the operation, you're very more than welcome. I believe we're setting off on another five-year period of very strong traffic growth on aircraft that have four seats that burn less fuel and they will in turn deliver very strong profit and very strong share price appreciation. So with that, thank you very much for joining the call this morning. Look forward to seeing you all the next couple of days. And if not, come visit us in Dublin during the summer. Thanks, everybody. Bye-bye.

This concludes today's call. Thank you all for joining. You may now disconnect your lines.