SBA Communications Corporation

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the SBA second quarter earnings results conference call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode, and later we will conduct a question and answer session. Instructions will be given at that time. If you should require assistance during the call, please press star, then zero. And I would now like to turn the conference over to our host, Vice President of Finance, Mark DeRossi. Please go ahead.

Good evening, and thank you for joining us for SBA's second quarter 2023 earnings conference call. Here with me today are Jeff Stoops, our President and Chief Executive Officer, and Brendan Cavanaugh, our Chief Financial Officer. Some of the information we will discuss on this call is forward-looking, including but not limited to any guidance for 2023 and beyond. In today's press release and in our SEC filings, We detail material risks that may cause our future results to differ from our expectations. Our statements are as of today, July 31st. We have no obligation to update any forward-looking statement we may make. In addition, our comments will include non-GAAP financial measures and other key operating metrics. The reconciliation of and other information regarding these items can be found in our supplemental financial data package, which is located on the landing page of our investor relations website. With that, I will now turn it over to Brendan to discuss our second quarter results.

Thank you, Mark. Good evening. We had another steady quarter in Q2 with solid financial results that were slightly ahead of our expectations. Based on these results and our updated expectations for the balance of the year, we have increased our full year 2023 outlook for site leasing revenue, tower cash flow, adjusted EBITDA, AFFO, and AFFO per share. Total GAAP site leasing revenues for the second quarter were $626.1 million, and cash site leasing revenues were $618.7 million. Foreign exchange rates represented a benefit of approximately $1.9 million when compared with our previously forecasted FX rate estimates for the quarter, and a headwind of $4.2 million when compared to the second quarter of 2022. Same tower recurring cash leasing revenue growth for the second quarter, which is calculated on a constant currency basis, was 4.3% net over the second quarter of 2022, including the impact of 3.9% of churn. On a gross basis, same tower recurring cash leasing revenue growth was 8.2%. Domestic same tower recurring cash leasing revenue growth over the second quarter of last year was 7.8% on a gross basis and 4.2% on a net basis, including 3.6% of churn. Domestic operational leasing activity, or bookings, representing new revenue placed under contract during the second quarter, declined from the first quarter. While all major carriers remained active with their networks, agreement execution levels in the second quarter from several of our customers were below our prior expectations. Longer term, we continue to see significant runway for new 5G-related leasing activity based on the number of our sites that remain to be upgraded with mid-band spectrum deployments by the major mobile network operators. In addition, today we announced that we have entered into a new long-term master lease agreement with AT&T. This comprehensive agreement will streamline AT&T's deployment of 5G solutions across our tower portfolio, while providing us with committed future leasing growth from AT&T for years to come. Based on this MLA, we have increased our projected contribution to 2023 leasing revenue from domestic organic new leases and amendments by $6 million from the full year projections we provided last quarter. During the second quarter, amendment activity represented 42% of our domestic bookings and new leases represented 58%. The big four carriers of AT&T, T-Mobile, Verizon, and DISH represented approximately 89% of total incremental domestic leasing revenue that was signed up during the quarter. Domestically, churn was slightly elevated during the quarter, primarily due to faster decommissionings of legacy Sprint leases than we had projected, which is the opposite of our experience last year. Based on our current analysis, we expect Sprint-related churn for 2023 to be at the high end of our previously stated range for this year of $25 to $30 million, resulting in a change to our full year domestic churn outlook of $4 million. Our views around the ultimate multi-year cumulative impact of Sprint merger related churn have not changed, although we continue to update our outlook around timing as more information becomes available. We now project 2024 Sprint related churn to be in a range of $20 to $30 million. 2025 to be between 35 and 45 million dollars, 2026 to be 45 to 55 million, and 2027 to be 10 to 20 million dollars. Just as last year ended up being well below our initial churn expectations, and 2023 will likely be a little above our initial expectations, we anticipate that the exact timing will continue to be somewhat fluid, but in line with our provided projections. Non-sprint related domestic churn was in line with our prior projections. Moving now to international results, on a constant currency basis, same-tower cash leasing revenue growth was 4.8% net, including 4.9% of churn, or 9.7% on a gross basis. International leasing activity was strong in the second quarter and ahead of our internal expectations. These positive results and our solid backlogs have allowed us to increase our projected contribution to 2023 leasing revenue from international organic new leases and amendments by $1 million. Inflation-based escalators also continue to make steady contributions to our organic growth. However, decreases in actual and projected Brazilian CPI rates have caused us to moderate our outlook for international escalation contributions for the full year by approximately $1 million. Overall, Brazil, our largest international market, had another very good quarter. The same tower organic growth rate in Brazil was 5.7% on a constant currency basis, including the impact of 5.6% of churn, which amount was significantly impacted by our previously discussed TEM agreement. While international churn remains elevated, it continues to be in line with expectations and our previously provided outlook. As a reminder, our 2023 outlook does not include any churn assumptions related to the OY consolidation other than that associated with the TAM agreement. However, if during the year we were to enter into any further agreements with other carriers related to the OY consolidation, that would be expected to have an impact on our current year. We would adjust our outlook accordingly at that time. During the second quarter, 77.5% of consolidated cash site leasing revenue was denominated in U.S. dollars. The majority of non-U.S. dollar denominated revenue was from Brazil, with Brazil representing 16.2% of consolidated cash site leasing revenues during the quarter and 13.1% of cash site leasing revenue excluding revenues from pass-through expenses. Tower cash flow for the second quarter was $503.5 million, Tower cash flow in the quarter benefited by approximately $7.3 million in accounting-driven cost reclassifications. Our tower cash flow margins remain very strong, with a second quarter domestic tower cash flow margin of 85.5% and an international tower cash flow margin of 70.3% or 92.3%, excluding the impact of pass-through reimbursable expenses. Adjusted EBITDA in the second quarter was $471.7 million. The adjusted EBITDA margin was 70.3% in the quarter. Excluding the impact of revenues from pass-through expenses, adjusted EBITDA margin was 75.9%. Approximately 98% of our total adjusted EBITDA was attributable to our tower leasing business in the second quarter. During the second quarter, our services business had another strong quarter, with $52.4 million in revenue and $13.1 million of segment operating profit. While off year-ago activity levels, our carrier customers remained busy deploying new 5G-related equipment during the quarter, and we have retained our full-year outlook for our site development business due in part to the strength of our first-half results. Adjusted funds from operations, or AFFO, in the second quarter was $352.7 million. AFFO per share was $3.24, an increase of 6.2% over the second quarter of 2022 on a constant currency basis. During the second quarter, we continued to invest in additions to our portfolio, acquiring nine communication sites for total cash consideration of $7.2 million and building 64 new sites. Subsequent to quarter end, we have purchased or are under agreement to purchase 134 sites, all in our existing markets, an aggregate price of 72.9 million dollars we anticipate closing on these sites under contract by the end of the year in addition to new towers we also continue to invest in the land under our sites and during the quarter we spent an aggregate of 10.1 million dollars to buy land and easements and to extend ground lease terms at the end of the quarter we owned or controlled for more than 20 years the land underneath approximately 70 percent of our towers And the average remaining life under our ground leases, including renewal options under our control, is approximately 36 years. With that, I will now turn things over to Mark, who will provide an update on our balance sheet.

Thanks, Brendan. We ended the quarter with $12.7 billion of total debt and $12.4 billion of net debt. Our net debt to annualized adjusted EBITDA leverage ratio was 6.6 times below the low end of our target range and the lowest level in decades. Our second quarter net cash interest coverage ratio of adjusted EBITDA to net cash interest expense was a strong 4.9 times. During and subsequent to quarter end, we repaid amounts under our revolving credit facility. And as of today, we have $360 million outstanding under our $1.5 billion revolver. The current weighted average interest rate of our total outstanding debt is 3.1%, with a weighted average maturity of approximately 3.5 years. The current rate on our outstanding revolver balance is 6.3%. The interest rate on 95% of our current outstanding debt is fixed. During the quarter, we did not purchase any shares of our common stock, choosing instead to reduce revolver balances. We currently have $505 million of repurchase authorization remaining under our $1 billion stock repurchase plan. The company shares outstanding at June 30, 2023, for $108.4 million. In addition, during the quarter, we declared and paid a cash dividend of $92.1 million, or $0.85 per share. And today, we announced that our board of directors declared a third quarter dividend of $0.85 per share, payable on September 20, 2023, to shareholders of record as of the close of business on August 24, 2023. This dividend represents an increase of approximately 20% over the dividend we paid in the year-ago period. and only 26% of our projected full-year AFFO. With that, I'll now turn the call over to Jeff.

Thanks, Mark, and good evening, everyone. The second quarter was another very solid one for SBA. We produced good financial results across all areas of our business, and we continued to deliver high-quality service and operating results for our customers. Each of our largest U.S. customers remained active with their networks. Our customers continued to add equipment to sites in support of 5G through the deployment of new spectrum bands, as well as to expand coverage through brand new co-locations. We did, however, see the same slowdown in activity that many others have discussed. While we had always anticipated domestic leasing growth to moderate as we moved through 2023, organic leasing activity levels were lower than we anticipated in Q2 from some of our customers. Some of this was due, we believe, to slower activity from AT&T, in anticipation of our new MLA, as would be expected. We believe that these variations in activity are part of the normal cycle of carrier network investment that we have seen over time. A large initial burst of coverage activity as the next generation of technology starts to be deployed, followed by many years of coverage completion and capacity building. We are confident that there will be additional material network investment over the next several years. We believe this for a number of reasons. Most importantly, wireless demand continues to grow at a fast clip, consuming more and more of current network capacity. We have a large remaining number of sites that have not been upgraded yet to accommodate the mid-band spectrum holdings acquired by our customers over the last couple of years, some of which spectrum is not even available for deployment yet. DISH has their next phase of regulatory coverage requirements to meet in 2025. and we have our newly signed MLA with AT&T. We believe all of these items and others are supportive of multi-year continued development activity. While there will always be ebbs and flows in leasing activity levels based on a variety of factors, we believe that there will remain a need for continuous network investment, just as we have seen throughout our history in this business. With regard to our announced master lease agreement with AT&T, we're very excited about this next chapter in our long-standing successful relationship. This new agreement highlights the long-term importance of SBA sites to AT&T's future network deployment plans. The agreement will improve operating efficiencies between our organizations and enhance stability with regard to future leasing growth. We look forward to working closely with AT&T for years to come under this mutually beneficial framework. In the second quarter, our services business remained busy helping our carrier customers meet deployment objectives in an efficient and effective manner. While our services business is down on a year-over-year basis, 2023 will still represent the second biggest services year in our company's history, behind only 2022. We believe our legacy and reputation in the services business keeps us well-positioned to be a go-to provider for our customers to meet their network rollout goals. Internationally, we also had another solid quarter with greater organic leasing activity than we had anticipated. During the quarter, 62% of new international business signed up in the quarter came from amendments to existing leases, and 38% came through new leases with strong contributions broadly for many of our markets, including Central America, Brazil, and South Africa. Brazil, our largest market outside of the U.S., was ahead of our internal expectations with contributions from each of the big three carriers in that market. I continue to be pleased with our operational performance, cost management, and customer relationships in Brazil, which has made us a leader in the market. And we have recently seen positive movements in the currency exchange rate, providing some financial benefit and increased U.S. dollars for repatriation, as well as contributing to our increased full-year outlook. We remain excited about our opportunities in Brazil. During the quarter, we again generated solid AFFL providing significant cash for discretionary allocation. While our strong financial position allows us to retain flexibility for future further opportunistic investment in portfolio growth and stock repurchases, we dedicated the majority of our available cash in the quarter to paying down the outstanding balance on our revolver. We immediately benefit from this by reducing our floating rate cash interest obligations, which today represent among the highest cost debt in our capital structure. With the continuing high cost and limited availability of private market tower acquisition opportunities, we believe this is currently our best use of discretionary spending. Our quarter ending net debt to adjusted EBITDA leverage ratio was 6.6%, which I believe to be the lowest in our history, at least as a public company. As always, we will continue to be opportunistic around investments, but for the near-term, likely direct future cash flows into the repayment of debt as the most accretive short-term and certainly a long-term beneficial use of capital. Our balance sheet is in great shape with no debt maturities until October 2024, and since that maturity could easily be refinanced under our revolver, we are comfortable now to remain opportunistic around timing of future financings. We are a preferred issuer in the debt markets we routinely use and retain very good access to capital. We finished the quarter with 95% of our debt fixed, and thus we are only modestly exposed for now to significant interest rate fluctuations. Our exposure to floating rate debt is also expected to decline further as we continue paying down our outstanding revolver balance throughout the year. We feel very good about our current capital position. We feel fortunate to be in a sound, stable business with tremendous fundamentals and significant long-term opportunity ahead. Our customers continue to have significant network needs, and we will be there to support them in meeting those needs. I want to thank our team members and our customers for their contributions to our shared success. And with that, Eric, we are now ready for questions.

If you wish to ask a question, you can do so by pressing 1, then 0. You may remove yourself from queue at any time by pressing 1 and then 0 again. If you're on a speakerphone, please pick up the handset before pressing the numbers. Once again, to ask a question, please press 1, 0. And first, we will hear from Rick Prentice with Raymond James. Please go ahead.

Thanks. Good afternoon, everybody. Hey, Rick. Hey. I have some questions on the AT&T MLA, a big news item there. I appreciate, I think, Brendan, you said $6 million of the increased release activity was really driven by AT&T MLA.

Hey, Rick, can you speak up? We're having trouble hearing you.

Rick? Can you hear me better now? That's much better. Thank you. You bet. Sorry about that. I had another phone call come in. It's like, nope, doing something busy. Yeah, appreciate some of the color on the MLA with AT&T. A couple of questions around it. Why now and any others that you're working on? And then also suggesting that $6 million increase in guidance came from that. It looks like we should be thinking maybe of kind of flattish new lease activity over the next couple of quarters. And as we exit 23, is that the way we should be thinking about it?

Yeah, so on the MLA, first of all, on the numbers, the $6 million increase is basically due to the MLA. Obviously, that was our, the 72 is what we reported last time. We increased it to 78, and activity was a little bit slower in the second quarter. So we expect that the MLA will kick in right away based on the terms of it, and we'll be a contributor going forward. In terms of the cadence, it would be, Fairly flat. I would expect actually that we'll see an uptick in terms of the contribution to the third quarter as a result of the MLA. And then you'll see it be a little bit lower into the fourth quarter. And that lower trajectory has nothing to do with the MLA. That's really based on slowing activity from other carriers. If you'll recall correctly, we had kind of a trajectory expected that was downward leaning throughout the year. And I would expect that will continue as it relates to other contributors. In terms of why, Rick, this agreement with AT&T has been in the works for well over a year. And it's a deal that we believe is beneficial to both organizations. We've been working on it for that period of time and trying to signal and be transparent to our openness for this type of agreement, knowing that we were likely to enter into this agreement, which we have. Um, really don't want to comment too much on what's going on with other, other customers. But, um, just as we have always said, we are not hung up so much on structure as we are on finding, um, mutually beneficial agreements with our customers.

Okay. And one other one for me on the, um, paying down the, uh, revolver. When does the calculus move back towards stock buyback? Because it sounds like there's still not a lot of M&A out there, which would be probably your first choice. But how do we think about when the lever moves since you're down to 6.6 leverage to more stock buyback? Is that like a next year item? Is that further out?

Yeah, I think if rates stay the same and stock prices stay the same, it will continue to be. more accretive and obviously good for the overall capital position to continue to pay down the revolver to zero. So when we get to that point, Rick, you should ask that question again.

I'll be here to ask it. Great. Thanks, everyone. Stay well.

Yeah. And next we'll hear from Michael Rollins with Citi.

Thanks and good afternoon. Just curious, just to follow up on the comprehensive deal of AT&T. Can you share some of the multi-year components of this deal? Is there going to be a straight line element that sometimes comes up with these types of multi-year or comprehensive opportunities? And does it change the way investors should think about leasing overall for SBA? in 2024 in the domestic side?

Yeah, Mike, so it will certainly smooth the way that we operate with AT&T. So I think from that perspective, perhaps it impacts our reported growth numbers in terms of ebbs and flows. There may be a little bit less of that, at least as it relates to this particular agreement. From a straight line impact, we would expect that over the course of the agreement that we will have some straight line impacts, but there are no straight line or very minimal straight line impacts in the short term.

And just on the commentary on leasing, so the site development revenues are unchanged from the prior guidance, but you did note that there was some slower activity levels. Was this just something that you were maybe more prepared for earlier in the year? Or is there anything different about your site development business that maybe gave your expectation a little more durability in spite of some of the changes that you observed?

Yeah, I think we know our site development business very well. You know, it primarily centers around work, almost entirely work on our towers. So we have a very good feel for it. And there's just enough work out there, Mike, that was already booked earlier in the year. And actually, some of it probably spilling over from last year. That's now working itself through our services backlog that gives us the comfort to continue with the guidance that we have. So a lot of it. is more a reflection of activity levels that occurred two one two four of last year thanks very much and next we'll hear from simon flannery with morgan stanley great thank you very much um i was just wondering on the uh the leverage point

Have you had any more consideration of targeting investment-grade status, or is this going to be just a temporary change in your overall leverage targets? And then perhaps you could just talk. Go on. Yep.

Yeah. Right now, I think you should assume it's temporary so that we can continue to watch interest rates and see where they go. If interest rates stay high, it may not be temporary. We haven't made that decision yet. Actually, we're paying down the revolver because it's the most economic and best use of our cash today. It just so happens that as we continue to do that, we further decrease leverage, which makes the path of going to investment grade, if we were to so choose that path, easier to obtain. But I really don't think you should look at it, Simon, as a conscious effort to get to investment grade as much as it is just the best financial use of our discretionary cash.

Great. And just one follow-up. You mentioned earlier that you've still got a lot of sites that have not been upgraded to 5G. Do you think, given some of the rural skew of your portfolio, do you think that would advantage your portfolio in the next several years versus to that initial build-out?

Yeah, I think if history is any guide, yes, that's exactly how it works. It starts out in the NFL cities and goes from there.

Great, thank you. And next we'll hear from Phil Cusick with JP Morgan.

Hi, guys, thank you. Two, if I can. How should we think about the exit run rate in activity this year versus going into next year? AT&T sounds like it's steady in 3Q and 4Q, and then from there, and others are decelerating through this year. Should we think of the fourth quarter as a decent run rate for next year, or maybe a little bit lower than that? And then second, Jeff, I didn't understand your comment just a second ago on the service revenue now for activity earlier in the year. And it sounds like services are still running well ahead of historical levels. Do you expect them to come in? It sounds like you expect them, you're going to make the guide this year, but next year it sounds like things are going to be probably well below. Does that make sense? Thank you.

Go ahead, Brent. So on the first question, we expect that the fourth quarter run rate, and you're talking specifically just to be clear about domestic organic leasing contributions, to be around approximately $17 to $17.5 million. But I would definitely caution you as to TAB, Mark McIntyre, using that as a indicator of next year, as I mentioned earlier, the trajectory based on activity levels is declining and. TAB, Mark McIntyre, As a result, we would expect those numbers to step down as we move into next year we're obviously not ready to give 2024 guidance yet at this point. TAB, Mark McIntyre, But just kind of broadly when you think about it, the way we've always explained it and just the way that it actually happens is that. You get a lot of growth. For instance, the 2023 growth is based heavily on the leasing activity that took place at the end of last year, 2022, and next year's numbers will be based heavily on the leasing activity that's taking place this year. So the number is a little bit higher than we said before because of the impact to the MLA for the fourth quarter, but I don't believe we'll be indicative of the numbers for next year. Yeah, and as far as the services – Revenue, Phil, the first half of what we report in 2024 will be largely dictated by what we do now operationally with leasing. We have two different components of that. We have the site acquisition component, which is the planning stuff, and then we have the construction, which is where a lot of the current activity is taking place because that's the last part of the cycle. So we'll see. We'll see where we come out with the 2024 guidance on services, but it will, you know, be obviously heavily impacted by how we finish out the rest of the year.

Thanks very much, Chris.

And next we'll hear from Jonathan Atkin with RBC.

Thanks very much. So I was interested in doing just to contextualize the AT&T MLA How much of your revenue for kind of this year, next year, the following year, can we be considered to be fairly locked in as opposed to usage-based? Thanks.

Yeah, you mean just the percentage of the AT&T revenue or overall revenue?

Overall revenue. For the whole company, how do we kind of think about how much is kind of a lock versus a

Right, John, we can't give specific numbers out and obviously a number of our agreements with other customers are fluid and where those amounts end up is obviously unknown. So as a percentage, it's hard to say as well. So we can't be very specific about it, but we do have some portion of our revenue base that is locked in now under this agreement that wasn't before. And a greater portion of the AT&T than probably exists under other agreements, although we still have some of that. And I mean, I don't think that's not a number that we have focused on. So the best we can answer, Jonathan, is it's a much greater extent under the AT&T revenue.

And you're comparing that to your agreements with other carriers as opposed to other Cal or Co's agreements with AT&T, I'm assuming?

Correct. Yeah, correct.

Got it. You understood. And then maybe just give us some directional guidance around the trajectory around building new towers and ground lease and easement activity.

Yeah, I mean, we continue to look for... good financially smart new build opportunities. We're doing those mostly outside the United States. Primarily Brazil and South Africa are two largest markets outside the United States. And we have a steady focus on ground lease purchases and extensions, which hasn't changed at all. It's moved a little bit more international in terms of the mix just because we've been at it so long in the United States. But nothing's really changed there. We would put more capital into particularly the land purchases and extensions if the opportunities arose.

And then in terms of purchasing other portfolios, maybe thinking about Africa and your operating history there and maybe some tuck-in opportunities, either that geography or elsewhere, what are your thoughts on increases or scale in existing markets versus expanding the footprint?

Yeah, I mean, the answer to that question is pretty much the same as it has been for years, for the right deal, we will do it. We have no strategic hole that we feel needs to be filled. In-market growth, because of the existing base, is going to be preferred over new market growth. But we would still go into a new market if we found the right deal. And I would point back to the Tanzania investment as a good example of that. But because it's all financially driven, it makes our decision to use discretionary cash to pay down the revolver that much more straightforward.

Lastly, I might have missed this, but the duration of the AT&T MLA?

It's five years, Jonathan.

Thanks very much.

And next we'll hear from David Barden with Bank of America.

Hey, guys. Thanks so much for taking the questions. So I guess maybe two. The first one, Jeff, just with respect to some of the actions that your competitors are taking, pros and cons for being in the construction business, you know, for towers at all. um you know is there maybe an opportunity to to redirect resources in in more optimal ways or or is there an opportunity if people are willing to give up business for you guys to lean in uh at the margin as we think about the go-ahead business and then second maybe for um mark um as we think about the 25 term loan and you know its maturity um what should the street be doing in terms of expectations you know in the model with respect to how we address that cost um fixed long-term roll it what is the plan thank you i'm going to defer that to our expert here brendan on the services question david um you know we've had a lot of history actually you recall that's how sba started so we have

a very flexible cost structure that allows us to ramp up, ramp down. We use a lot of subcontracted tower crews. We have our own, but we also use subcontracted tower crews. And one of the things that has really served us well, and our customers give us high praise for this, is by using our services people for work on our towers for them, they are greatly benefited in terms of speed to market and efficiencies. So I don't think that changes. So I guess if I had to choose one of your two options, you know, lean out or lean in, we'll look to lean in and not be afraid to do that because of our confidence in how we manage that business. And Dave, on the term loan, You know, your question of modeling, if I could only see into the future, you know, but we... Yeah, I mean, the best thing, I think, for people to do when looking at it is probably to assume a similar like-for-like refinancing. And I would expect that spreads will be similar to up slightly from where they are today, but we'll have to see how that plays out. And then it's just a matter of using... the forward curve in terms of the benchmark SOFR rate. But that doesn't mean that that's necessarily how it will play out. We will probably have – we will be evaluating multiple different options. There may be a mix of different instruments that we use. Some may be fixed and some may be floating. But all things are on the table for us right now, and we look at that, frankly, every day. But if you're just simply modeling out long term, I think the best thing to do is to assume a like-for-like instrument.

All right, great. Thank you, guys.

And next we'll hear from Walter Pychek with LightShed. Please go ahead.

Thanks. Can you hear me? Yes. All right, perfect. Sorry. If you didn't have the AT&T MLA, would the 72 still stick? Or would that fall off? accelerating faster than you thought in terms of the second half of the year?

I can't really answer that question, Walt, because there's so many elements that go into it. What would the activity be with AT&T otherwise? Those types of things. So I can't really say for sure what it would be given that we were working on this for quite a while. We don't like to discuss the individual customers, but obviously DISH has just gotten through a major deadline that they had. There's a little bit of a slowdown or pause, if you will, related to that. And we would expect that will eventually pick up. But given the delay between signings and revenue recognition, I would expect that will weigh year over year on next year.