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1/30/2026
Welcome to SECOS Banking Corporation's 4th Quarter and Full Year 2025 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Mark, and I will be your operator. Before we begin, I have been asked to direct your attention to the statements at the end of the company's press release regarding forward-looking statements. SECOS will be discussing issues that constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Securities and Exchange Act, and its comments today are intended to be covered within the meaning of the Act. Please note that this conference is being recorded. I will now turn the call over to Chuck Schaefer, chairman and CEO of Seacoast Bank. Mr. Schaefer, you may begin.
All right. Thank you, Mark, and good morning, everyone. As we move through today's presentations, we'll reference the fourth quarter and full year earnings slide deck available at seacoastbanking.com. Joining me today are Tracy Dexter, our chief financial officer, Michael Young, our chief strategy officer, and James Stallings, our chief credit officer. The Seacoast team delivered another exceptional quarter highlighted by the closing of the Villages acquisition, and strong growth in loans. Loan outstandings grew at an annualized rate of 15%, driven by the continued success of our commercial banking team and the additional mortgage volume contributed by the Villages acquisition. The addition of the Villages mortgage team expands our optionality for future portfolio decisions. The residential loans we added this quarter were very high-quality credits with high FICOs, strong yields, and generally shorter expected lives than traditional mortgage products, given the unique characteristics of this borrower base. We also continue to see meaningful improvements in non-interest income, with stronger performance across almost every major category. Wealth management had an excellent year, adding $550 million in new AUM, and treasury management fees and other service charges also continued to grow as new clients were onboarded. On the expense side, overhead was well managed, and our expense ratio improved from the prior quarter, and the ratio of adjusted non-interest expense to tangible assets declined to near 2%. Our plan to drive improved shareholder returns remains firmly on track. Excluding the day one provision and merger-related expenses associated with the village's acquisition, ROA for the fourth quarter was 1.22%, and the return on tangible equity was 15.72%. These results demonstrate the strong return profile of the combined institution, which will be fully realized following the village's technology conversions, in July this year, 2026. The village's acquisition also closed with materially higher tangible equity than initially projected, shortening the earn-back period. We are deploying a portion of this excess capital into the securities portfolio reposition that was executed this week, and Michael will walk through these details here shortly. Overall, I'm very pleased with the progress we're making, and I remain highly confident in our outlook for 2026. As noted in the slide deck, we expect to achieve earnings per share for the full year in a range of $2.48 to $2.52 and anticipate exiting the year in the fourth quarter of 2026 after the village's technology conversion with an ROA above 1.30% and a return on tangible equity of approximately 16%. And asset quality remains solid. Charge-offs were a modest three basis points for the fourth quarter and the full year average for 2025 was only 12 basis points. Our CRE and construction and land development ratios remain low following the addition of the villages. And as a reminder, our portfolio is composed almost entirely of franchise quality relationships. Longstanding borrowers across our footprint, which include consumers, businesses, nonprofits, and municipalities. And lastly, capital and liquidity remain exceptionally strong. We continue to operate with a fortress balance sheet. We remain one of the strongest banks in the industry. With that, I'll turn it over to Tracy Dexter to walk through our financial reports. Tracy?
Thank you, Chuck. Good morning, everyone. Beginning with slide four and fourth quarter performance highlights. The Seacoast team delivered a strong quarter with adjusted net income, which excludes merger-related charges, increasing 18% year-over-year to $47.7 million. Consistent with the accounting requirements, this includes the initial provisions for loans and unfunded commitments on the Villages Bank Corporation acquisition, which totaled $23.4 million. Pre-tax pre-provision earnings on an adjusted basis rose to $93.2 million in the fourth quarter, an increase of 39% from the third quarter, and an increase of 65% from the prior year quarter. The efficiency ratio improved and on an adjusted basis is below 55%. I'll note that our presentation of the efficiency ratio now includes the amortization of intangible assets, which added $10.4 million to expense in the fourth quarter. Loan production was very strong, with organic growth in balances of 15% on an annualized basis. Higher commercial production, which increased 22% from the prior quarter, reflects the success of a multi-year hiring strategy. Deposit costs were well managed and also benefited from the addition of VBI, overall declining 14 basis points from the prior quarter to 1.67%. Net interest income was 174.6 million, an increase of 31% from the prior quarter. Net interest margin, excluding accretion on acquired loans, expanded 12 basis points to 3.44%, consistent with the guidance we provided. Our capital position continues to be very strong. Seacoast Tier 1 capital ratio is 14.4%, and the ratio of tangible equity to tangible assets is 9.3%. We grew the branch footprint through two de novo openings in the fourth quarter, one in the greater Atlanta area, and one on the Gulf Coast in Bradenton, Florida. For the full year 2025, we opened five de novo branches. We completed our acquisition of VBI on October 1st, 2025 with the technology conversion plan for July of 2026. On to slide five. Tax equivalent net interest income increased by 42.3 million or 32% compared to the prior quarter and by 60.1 million or 52% compared to the prior year quarter. The net interest margin expanded nine basis points to 3.66%, and excluding accretion on acquired loans, expanded 12 basis points from the prior quarter to 3.44%. Loan yields increased six basis points to 6.02%. Excluding accretion, loan yields increased seven basis points to 5.68%. Overall cost of funds is down 16 basis points from the prior quarter. With strong momentum in loan growth, funding costs now lower, additional liquidity, and accretive acquisitions, we expect continued expansion in the net interest margin. Turning to slide six. Non-interest income was $28.6 million, increasing 20% from the prior quarter. Fee revenue continues to benefit from our growth in commercial customers, and with the addition of the villages in the fourth quarter, service charges on deposits increased 4% from the prior quarter. Mortgage banking activities have expanded with the acquisition of VBI. This includes increases in saleable and portfolio production in the fourth quarter, along with servicing income introduced by the village's activities. Moving to slide seven. Our wealth management team delivered another quarter of remarkable results, with income growing 21% from the prior quarter, largely attributed to organic growth, bringing new assets under management in 2025. Total AUM increased 37% year over year, with a 23% annual CAGR in the past five years. We're incredibly proud of our wealth team and their amazing success in 2025. Moving to slide eight, non-interest expense in the fourth quarter was $130.5 million, an increase of $28.5 million from the prior quarter. The fourth quarter included $18.1 million in merger and integration costs and $23.4 million in day one credit provisions for the village's acquisition. Higher salaries and benefits and higher outsourced data processing costs reflect continued expansion and the addition of recent bank acquisitions, as well as higher performance-driven incentives. Other categories of expenses were in line with expectations. Our adjusted efficiency ratio improved to 54.5%, demonstrating continued operating leverage. We continue to remain focused on profitability and performance, and expect continued disciplined management of overhead and the efficiency ratio. As a reminder, looking ahead, the first quarter typically has seasonally higher expenses from FICA and 401K resets. Turning to slides nine and 10 on the loan portfolio, loan outstandings, excluding the impact of the VBI acquisition, increased at an annualized 15%. We continue to see strong broad-based demand across our market and commercial production increased by 22% during the fourth quarter. Loan growth was further strengthened by strong mortgage production at VBI, much of which we chose to retain in the portfolio. Loan yields increased six basis points, and excluding the effect of accretion, yields increased seven basis points from the prior quarter to 5.68%. The overall mix of loan types has remained generally consistent quarter over quarter, portfolio diversification in terms of asset mix, industry, and loan type has been a critical element of the company's lending strategy. Exposure is broadly distributed, and we continue to be vigilant in maintaining our disciplined, conservative credit culture. As we have for many years, we consistently manage our portfolio to keep construction and land development loans and commercial real estate loans well below regulatory guidance. These measures are significantly below the peer group, at 32% and 216% of consolidated risk-based capital, respectively. We've managed our loan portfolio with diverse distribution across categories and retained granularity to manage risk. Moving on to credit topics on slide 11, the allowance for credit losses totaled $178.8 million, with coverage to total loans increasing to 1.42%. Loans acquired from VBI have coverage of approximately 2%, as we take a conservative approach while transitioning to Seacoast's portfolio management and monitoring practices. The allowance for credit losses, combined with the $150 million remaining unrecognized discount on acquired loans, totals $329 million, or 2.61% of total loans that's available to cover potential losses. The acquisition of VBI added approximately $59 million in accretable purchase mark. That's included in the figures presented on the slide. that if not needed to cover losses, will be recognized through yield over time. Moving to slide 12, looking at quarterly trends and credit metrics, which remain strong. We recorded net charge-offs of $936,000 during the quarter, or three basis points annualized, bringing the net charge-offs for the full year 2025 to 12 basis points of average loans. Non-performing and criticized and classified loans grew slightly, with isolated additions from VBI, but remain low as a percentage of total loans. Turning to slides 13 and 14 on the deposit portfolio. Deposits increased to $16.3 billion, largely attributed to the acquired VBI deposits. Average balances in the fourth quarter were up 29% from the prior quarter, benefiting from the acquisition and the seasonal effect of higher public funds deposits. The cost of deposits declined to 1.67%, exiting the year at 1.64%. Seacoast continues to benefit from a diverse deposit base. Customer transaction accounts represent 48% of total deposits, which continues to highlight our long-standing, relationship-focused approach. On slide 15, our capital position continues to be very strong. Tangible book value per share shows the initially dilutive impact of the VBI acquisition, which we expect to be earned back ahead of our original projection. The ratio of tangible equity to tangible assets remains strong at 9.3%. As expected, return on tangible equity decreased, reflecting the impact of the acquisition. Our risk-based and Tier 1 capital ratios remain among the highest in the industry. I'll now turn the call over to Michael to discuss recent strategic capital actions in the securities portfolio. Michael?
Thank you, Tracy. I'll be referencing slide 16 for the comments on the securities portfolio. With the closing of the VBI merger, our securities portfolio grew substantially to $5.75 billion in the fourth quarter, combining two low-cost granular deposit franchises with a large primarily agency-backed securities portfolio that has only further strengthened our balance sheet's liquidity position as we converted excess capital into low-risk earnings. Immediately following the merger close, we sold approximately $1.5 billion of the $2.5 billion securities portfolio at VBI, with an emphasis on reducing risk throughout the liquidation of over $600 million in corporate debt that was sold. We patiently redeployed that liquidity throughout the quarter, avoiding periods of low rates, which resulted in higher cash balances for much of the quarter, creating a slight drag on the NIMS. The net unrealized losses in the AFS portfolio improved by $18.5 million during the fourth quarter, leading to additional tangible book value accretion. This has been a hallmark of our 2025 performance, with the unrealized losses on the securities portfolio improving by $137 million, adding nearly $1 to tangible book value, and materially reducing the dilution from the acquisitions of Heartland and VBI. The portfolio yield increased 21 basis points to 4.13% in the fourth quarter with additional yield expansion expected in the first quarter of 26 with a full quarter benefit of the fourth quarter actions. Now turning to slide 17. We have materially outperformed our conservative assumptions related to the VBI acquisition. The primary contribution came from lower marks on the securities portfolio at close with additional benefits from lower credit marks on the loan portfolio. These positive developments delivered significantly lower dilution and materially higher pro forma capital, as you can see. We have about 90 basis points of additional total risk-based capital or approximately $92 million compared to the 14.7% that we originally articulated at deal announcement. Given the significant capital outperformance, we are once again trending towards elevated capital levels. As a result, we elected to convert one-third of that excess regulatory capital generation into higher future earnings profile, delivering what we believe is a win-win for shareholders with no tangible book value dilution but higher pro forma earnings and allowing us to exceed the $2.46 that we originally articulated at deal announcement. We sold $317 million in book value of available-for-sale securities with a projected book yield below 2%, and we received proceeds of $277 million that were invested at a taxable equivalent yield of 4.8% for a pickup of almost 290 basis points as part of the securities restructure action we took this week. And finally, on slide 18, we felt it important to provide some additional guidance around our expectations for 2026. Our guidance numbers reflect adjusted performance metrics largely calibrating for merger-related charges that may take place in 2026. We expected adjusted revenue growth of 29% to 31% for the full year 2026 compared to the full year 2025. We believe our adjusted efficiency ratio will be in the 53% to 55% range for 2026, with a primary driver being the pace of banker hiring during the year, We plan to increase our banker count by approximately 15% in 2026, and the benefit will be fully realized in 2027 and 2028. Most importantly, however, we plan to manage these outcomes within tight bottom line performance of $2.48 in earnings to $2.52 in earnings, an increase from our articulation of the $2.46 target last year. We expect to exit the year with a 1.3% adjusted ROA and a 16% ROTE in the fourth quarter post-conversion activities as we balance the investments for future growth with strong current profitability. We plan to deliver all these financial outcomes while continuing the organic growth momentum that we've seen in 2025, and we expect to deliver high single-digit loan growth and low to mid-single-digit deposit growth as we move forward throughout the year. I'll now turn the call back to Chuck for final comments.
Thank you, Michael. And before we open the line for questions, I'd like to once again express my deep appreciation for our Seacoast associates, our customers, and our shareholders. We closed out a truly transformational year, one marked by industry-leading loan growth, two exceptional acquisitions, and meaningful investments across our company that position us for long-term strength. We operate one of the best banking teams in the Southeast and some of the strongest markets in the country. We have an exceptionally strong balance sheet. I remain very confident in our growth outlook and our ability to deliver upon our strong return profile in 2026. And it's especially gratifying to enter our 100th anniversary in 2026 with such a strong foundation. As we celebrate a century of serving our communities, we do so with confidence, momentum, and tremendous optimism for what lies ahead. And with that, operator, we'll open the line for questions.
Absolutely. We will now begin the question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question, simply press star followed by the number one on your telephone keypad. We'll pause for just a moment to compile the Q&A roster. And our first question comes from the line of David Pfister with Raymond James. David, please go ahead.
Good morning, everybody. Good morning, David. I really appreciate you guys.
It's very helpful. Hey, David. Hey, David. David, you're a little garbled. I think maybe you got a bad connection. You want to drop and come back in? Sorry. Yeah, I think operator will go to the next one.
Oh, yeah. Better, David. Good. Perfect.
Okay. Sorry. I was just saying, I appreciate the guidance this quarter. That is super helpful. I wanted to start on the efficiency side. You know, I guess first, I just wanted to clarify, when we talk about an adjusted efficiency ratio, does that exclude intangible amortization like we have in the past. And then just looking at the efficiency, it is a bit higher than where the street is. It sounds like there's some new hiring embedded in that. But just wanted to get your thoughts on how expenses are specifically in investments kind of on the horizon.
Yeah. David, I can take the first part. This is Tracy. Our adjusted efficiency ratio includes, leaves in the expense for amortization of intangible assets In the past, we had excluded that. We know that's been kind of a difference in the way you keep track of it. So it's in there.
And David, regarding the investments, I think if you look back to the original deal deck, we had an efficiency ratio of about 52.5%. That was run rate post all the expense takeout with the acquisitions. We obviously won't have that impact until kind of the midway part of this year, so that naturally pushes the efficiency ratio up for 2026 guidance. But also, as articulated in the prior prepared remarks, we plan to be aggressive in hiring bankers. We've had a lot of inbound demand, as Chuck has referenced many times in the past, but we've wanted to balance that growth in banker count with profitability. We're in a much stronger profitability footing now, and given the merger disruption that we see in the industry, We want to be on the front foot in hiring. We articulated a 15% increase in the banker count as the expectation, and some of the driver will just be how successful we are and how early in the year as to when we see the expenses ramp versus kind of the future production.
That's helpful. And then maybe kind of staying on the hiring side, you've obviously had a lot of success. There's more opportunity on the horizon. I guess first off, the loan growth, I mean, 15% was great. I wanted to get a sense of how much of that would you attribute to the new hires versus improving demand or just increasing productivity from your existing team? And then is the hiring investment that you're contemplating key to the achievability of that high single-digit growth guide? Or would that be additive just given the time it takes for these lenders to ramp up?
Yeah, maybe I'll take that one, David. So I think if you look back at the quarter, the way to break it down, and this is rough, so this isn't super precise, but out of the 15%, I'd say roughly 10% came out of what was legacy CCOs. So our commercial banking team, the hiring we've done over the last couple of years, that drove about 10% of that annualized growth. There's another 2% to 3% that came from the Villages acquisition, as we talked about in my prepared comments. When you kind of look at the opportunity there, it's really high FICO credit, a more senior borrower, and typically a shorter life duration asset. So we really like that paper. And as a result, we took the opportunity to portfolio. And then there's probably another 1% to 2%. It's just a little bit slower paydowns. When you look into the coming year, we've contemplated arguably a little bit higher paydowns as we move into the coming year and bake that into our model. And so we've guided to that high single-digit growth rate. I would tell you that if you really think about the hiring profile, if we do exceptionally well here in the first half of the year and are able to add that 15%, while it will benefit late in 26, really we won't see the benefit until 27, 28, And the other thing that you have to sort of contemplate is the balance sheet will grow as we move through the year with a high single-digit, call it 8% to 9% growth rate. If we achieve that, you know, you've got fairly sizable growth in the loan portfolio that we need to kind of continue to re-originate to. And as we've talked about before, you know, we're always going to be thoughtful about what our credit risk appetite is and what we're willing to take into the portfolio. You know, we're going to do the loans we like in our credit profiles. and largely don't want to sort of be held to a, such a high growth rate that we wouldn't be able to continue to be thoughtful and selective on what credits we're willing to put in the portfolio. So I think if you're thinking about modeling sort of that high single digit growth rate is the right way to think about it. We'll have optionality with the villages portfolio to kind of move that in and out depending on where rates are and where the yield curve is. And, uh, as Michael mentioned, we still have a lot of opportunity to hire. So, you know, on the growth side, particularly the loan growth side, I feel really confident about what's out ahead for us. That's exciting.
Maybe just last one for me, switching gears to capital. You know, you talked about capital pro forma being higher than expected, deployed a portion of that into the transitioning here in the first quarter. But look, based on your pro forma profitability, you're going to be accreting a lot of capital, even with high single digit loan growth. How do you think about capital return going forward? Just as, you know, maybe M&A is less of a focus like we've talked about. Would you expect to see more capital return or would you rather, you know, accrete capital back closer to maybe where you were previously?
Yeah, we'll see how the year plays out, what opportunities emerge. You know, we took the opportunity here this quarter to do securities loss trade, and I think that was a good use of capital given the significant capital appreciation that we saw on the Villages transaction and the shorter earn back than what we originally put in the deal modeling scenario. And so we will continue to monitor, David. I mean, obviously, you know, we're going to have a lot of capital. That's going to give us the opportunities to think about things like dividends and buybacks over time. As you mentioned, there's, you know, a lot less opportunity for M&A. And at the moment, we're heads down, highly focused on getting this Villages deal done. I mean, that's kind of the priority right now. We want to get through the middle part of the year, have an amazing conversion for our customers there. deliver really solid experience in the villages, come out of that, and then we'll see what opportunities present. But at the moment, I hear you, we're growing a lot of capital. That's a conversation we continue to have with our board and something we'll continue to monitor. But yeah, I mean, we'll continue to look at other options as we go through the year here. And there's buybacks and dividends and other things we can do through time. Perfect.
Thanks, everybody.
And your next question comes from the line of Russell Gunther with Stephens. Russell, please go ahead.
Hey, good morning, guys.
Hey, Russell. Good morning.
Maybe I'd like to start, if I could, on kind of margin and NII. I really appreciate the revenue guide for the year. Given the securities actions taken within 4Q and then again here in 1Q, how are you thinking about where that first quarter margin could shake out And then an adjacent question within the NII expectation for the year, kind of what is your overall level of purchase accounting embedded in that guide?
Hey, Russell, I'll take the first part of that and turn the second part to Tracy. You know, two key things to think about. One is the margin side, but the other is the average earning asset balances. In the fourth quarter, we have public funds balances that tend to fund up and Fund back down as well as you mentioned kind of the taking our time on the repositioning. So we had some excess cash balances related to that as well. So both of those kind of weighed on the margin a little bit in the fourth quarter. We would expect the average earning asset base to be down in the first quarter by a couple hundred million dollars. But the margin will expand pretty nicely probably in that 10 to 15 basis point range in the first quarter. So those are the dynamics you want to think about kind of the start of the year. and then moving throughout the year, you know, to hit the guidance that we laid out. And I'll turn it to Tracy on the purchase accounting accretion question.
Yeah, you know, Russell, the expectations for accretion are always kind of difficult to predict, maybe more so with the addition of this portfolio. The base level of accretion is derived using the loan's contractual life, and the maturities here in the village's portfolio are relatively long. So the accretion will be accelerated upon payoff. That will create a lot more volatility in the accretion, and we've got that baked into our forecast, too. But our model uses the fourth quarter of 25 as the run rate for 26, but do expect volatility in that accretion number.
And Russell, do you... Yeah, sorry, go ahead.
Yeah, just one other point I wanted to make. We've been kind of calling this out a little bit more recently, but just the nature of our acquisitions being heavy core deposit franchises, there's more core deposit intangible expense. And so if you look at the net effect of the purchase accounting marks in both revenue and expenses, they largely balance one another. So if you take kind of a low 40 number on purchase accounting accretion and you see our kind of $38 million roughly number on core deposit intangible expense, you've got a pretty marginal contribution on a net basis to earnings. So We just want to call out that our earnings guidance for the year is really not being contributed to on a net basis from purchase accounting accretion in a significant way.
Understood. Appreciate that, Michael and Tracy. And then I guess next question for me would be, given the overall excess capital you guys discussed, how you're thinking about that in the context of the actions already taken within the securities portfolio, Is there room or appetite left for additional restructurings in 26 beyond what's currently contemplated in the guide?
Hey, Russell. I think we don't expect to execute any additional securities restructures, and that's certainly not reflected in the guide. So this is the only piece that's reflected in the guidance. And maybe zooming out more broadly, Most of the other securities that are at loss positions or more material loss positions are in the HTM portfolio. We don't have any plans to pierce the HTM portfolio. So I think we're pretty much done with this capital action. Okay.
Yeah, thank you for that, Michael. Helpful. And then you touched on another one I had earlier in terms of just average earning asset expectations. So as we think about the mix, within securities and into this high single-digit loan growth expectations. Beyond the step down you mentioned in the first quarter, how are you expecting average earning asset levels to trend over the course of the year?
Hey, Russell. Yeah, pretty similar commentary to last quarter. The thing that's changed, we started the year with a little higher loan-to-deposit ratio because of some of the proactive actions we mentioned. But, you know, we'll remix, you know, relatively slowly from here, and it's just going to be the delta between our loan growth versus our deposit growth really is going to be the driver of that. So if we're guiding to high single-digit loan growth and low to mid-single-digit deposit growth, you know, depending on where you shake out in that mix of ranges, that's going to be really the driver of our remix throughout the year.
Okay. And if I could sneak one last one in, guys, appreciate it. The efficiency ratio guide is helpful. Maybe could you just give us a sense or a reminder of the cadence of the cost saves within the villages acquisition? I think you mentioned the conversion in July, just kind of where an exit expense rate might be for the year. And then perhaps a more bigger picture, but how should we think about a normalized expense growth rate for seacoast going forward?
Hey, Russell. Yeah, so in the acquisition deck, you know, the base run rate for them was about $64 million at inflation year over year to that. That's kind of their base expense rate that would come out post the conversion in early third quarter. And so we would expect to see that kind of underlying drop. Now the offset, though, is we are investing into banker hires and ramping that during the year. And so, you know, one will kind of impact the other and, you know, could see a little more stability, if you will, in the expense base, but with much higher production and productivity going forward. And then I forgot the last part of your question was?
I think really just, yeah, as I'm thinking about sort of 27 and even, you know, beyond, given your commentary around the benefits from hiring in 27, 28, just As we exit with a cleaner run rate post all the villages, expense saves, what is a decent normalized growth rate to think about that captures the franchise investment you guys are making?
Thanks. Appreciate you, Roy. I made the last part of the question. I think as we zoom out, and this is a hypothetical conversation, not guidance, obviously, but as a larger company today at $21 billion in assets, There's a lot of opportunity for us to drive scalability across the company and a lot of our processes with investment into technology that leads to material expense rationalization and really our ability to grow into our existing expense base in many different areas. So I think we're really excited about that opportunity as we move forward into 27 and 28 and driving some of that scalability and operating leverage. But we obviously want to maintain our ability to invest into the company and into the future growth prospects. We're not running this for one year or two years. We're running it for continued growth and sustainable growth over a long period of time. And so we will balance those two as we've done in the past and maintain a reasonable profitability level and efficiency level as we move forward, balancing those two key critical pieces.
Just to add a little bit there, just in a long-term sort of view on efficiency ratio, it's one way to think about things. It's probably low to mid-50s type efficiency ratio. Target is where we want to operate to come over the cycle. Got it.
Okay, guys, hey, I'm going to step back. Thanks for your help with all my questions.
Thanks, Russ. And our next question comes from the line of Stephen Scouten with Viper Sandler. Stephen, please go ahead.
Hey, good morning, guys. Just one point of clarification, potentially. Do you guys have a good number for where the securities yield can kind of shake out for the first quarter after all the actions completed?
Hey, Steven, this is Michael. It'll be a little bit dependent on, you know, the pace of prepayment speeds. We have a lot of discount mortgage backs in the portfolio, but, you know, generally it's going to be in that kind of 440 to 450 range.
Okay, great. Appreciate the context there. And then anything in terms of updates on the Atlanta market? I'm just kind of curious what that may have contributed to growth maybe this quarter and how it plays into this 15% uptick in lenders, how much of those might be contemplated in the Atlanta MSA?
Yeah, thanks. Thanks, Stephen. You know, we've talked in the past We've got a team of roughly 10 or so bankers up in that market. It's gone exceptionally well. I've been really pleased with the success we've had over the last Couple years there, we entered with an LPO about three years ago, built the CRE team and program, moved a little further into CNI, opened a branch here recently. As we've said in the past, I would expect over the next, call it three years or so, to roughly have about a five branch footprint in the greater northern Atlanta market as we build out up in there and roughly 15 to 20 bankers calling in that market with treasury support and the like. And so, you know, it was, it's been helpful. We've definitely seen a lot of success there and we do expect to continue to build in the Atlanta market in the coming years.
Okay. And just, and can you contextualize that 15% or just remind me, like, what would that be ballpark on a just FTE count perspective?
It's roughly about 15 bankers. Okay, perfect.
Great. And then just kind of, you know, lastly for me, in terms of, you know, and Chuck, you gave a lot of great color about the moving parts around growth, but the payoffs in particular, which you noted, you're kind of forecasting in higher payoffs next year. How do you think about the puts and takes of what you might see from a payoff perspective, especially within the context of rates? If we get lower rates, should that escalate payoffs, or do you think kind of increases in production activity might kind of actually lead to a better environment if we get, you know, lower rates from here.
Hey, Steven, this is Michael. I'll take that one. Yeah, I think, you know, it is somewhat pretty heavily, you know, rate dependent as we move into next year. You know, we have a fair bit, as we've talked about, of low fixed rate maturities that are coming due as well. You know, some clients or customers may choose to pay off or refinance elsewhere. But, you know, generally, it's just going to be a nature of kind of where the rate environment heads, you know, clearly in the middle, you know, of that curve as to whether or not, you know, people pay off or refi or if they, you know, continue to refinance with us.
Steven, I'll remind you, we really pulled back on lending and particularly construction lending in 2023. And so we didn't quite see the level of payoffs that others have dealt with probably here in 2025. And I think we'll probably still not quite see the level of payoffs that others may feel in early 25. You know, probably more of our challenge around that will emerge in 27, 28, 29. But we did take that pause back then when rates were really low, given what we viewed as a higher risk environment and didn't want to be delivering into potentially a weaker economy. Obviously, that didn't fully play out. The economy is pretty doggone strong at the moment. But nonetheless, that dynamic plays out for us. And so that issue hasn't been quite as strong for us as others in the industry.
Got it. Really helpful. And then maybe just one last for me, actually. We're seeing more headlines about potential weakness in residential housing in certain pockets within Florida. Can you maybe contextualize that in any of your markets? Is there anything that you see that's concerning at all? I can't say that I'm really seeing it being that widespread or of a concern, but just wondering your context being in those markets.
Yeah, really high level. And just to remind you, we don't have a lot of exposure to builder lines, just to kind of point that out. That's not, you know, something we've done a lot of, particularly post-GFC. We've stayed out of the builder line sort of lending area. We do a little bit here and there, but it's not a big part of our portfolio. But nonetheless, the way I'd characterize Florida is it is very market-specific. And I'd start with saying the condo market has been weak, primarily driven by condos having to be retrofitted for new standards. And so that's put additional cost on associations that have to be passed on to actual condo owners. And therefore, new buyers have slowed down in buying into that market until you have that retrofit done. Once the retrofit's done, those condos move pretty quickly. But we're going through this cycle where it's kind of the have and have nots. Those that have gotten it done, you can sell your condo. Those that haven't, it's a weak market. So you kind of got to pull that out. And then when you get to the residential markets, There are pockets of weakness and there's pockets of strength. You know, I described southeast Florida, Palm Beach County down to Miami-Dade as being exceptionally strong. Prices have not come down much. You know, demand for housing remains really strong in those markets. But you move just directly over to the west coast into that Fort Myers, Cape Coral area, and there was a lot of sort of post-COVID boom that happened with a lot of development, a lot of overdevelopment, and now we're seeing prices come down. So it is very much sort of depending upon the market in Florida, but I'd say generally it's not, you know, as weak as probably advertised, but there are pockets of weakness where there's been some oversupply.
That's great, Tyler. Thanks, Chuck, and really great quarter. Congrats on a great year. Thanks to you.
And our next question comes from the line of David Bishop with Hubday Group. David, please go ahead. Good morning.
Hey, Chuck, I'm curious. You guys also maybe get lost in the shuffle. I had pretty strong core deposit growth this quarter. Just curious if there's any sort of breakdown you have, you know, commercial versus consumer inflows there. I'm just curious what the main drivers were. Thanks.
I don't have that in front of me. We can pull that for you, David. We do have that table in the earnings release, but it's hard to get to the number because the acquisition's in there. We can kind of pull that apart for you. I would say generally we saw a little bit of just on the high level sort of. We also saw some deposit outflow in Q4 primarily in CDs as we kind of backed off of the higher price CD options just given all the liquidity we had. We didn't feel like we needed to compete there. But the underlying core dynamics, DDAs, the typical operating accounts continues to be really strong with the growth and onboarding of new clients, particularly the commercial client base that continues to, the CNI base continues to come on. But we'll see if we can pull that apart a little bit for you and get you some detail after the call. Perfect.
So then one follow-up, most of my questions have been answered. But just curious, it sounds like some of your peers
um new loan origination yields are start or you know quickly actually more quickly than i thought they would approaching what's rolling off just curious what the spread is between new originations and what's maturing thanks hey david this is michael um yeah our new originations in the quarter we're kind of in the low sixes um you know our roll off yields it'll depend it's a little episodic throughout the year given we have some periods of lower fixed rate maturities and we have a lot of arms that are coming into reset windows from the pandemic vintage. So we're still getting that positive, you know, back book dynamic on repricing. But those portfolios are a little lower in aggregate now pro forma. So, but we're still probably picking up, you know, maybe 50 to a hundred basis points kind of in terms of the new add-on rates versus the cumulative impact of the fixed rate, adjustable rate repricing, and kind of fall-off rates.
Got it. Thank you.
And our final question comes from the line of Woodley with KBW. Woody, please go ahead.
Hey, good morning, guys. Hey, Woody. Good morning, Woody. I wanted to touch on fee income. Fees this past quarter came in pretty well above the guidance you provided, and I know there were some questions on especially villages, mortgage unit, and, you know, portfolioing that versus selling. So how do you think about the toggle between that going forward and just any expectations on the fee income side near term?
Hey, Woody, it's Michael. Yeah, we did retain, as we talked about, more of the mortgage production in the fourth quarter, which drove a little additional balance sheet growth as part of the restructure to move us a little faster there. I think we may still do that a little bit here in the first quarter potentially, but then we'll start to ease off of that as we move throughout the year. But it just remains a really important lever for us as we move forward to kind of manage the overall balance sheet. And as Chuck mentioned, just the quality of that paper is so strong given the high quality borrowers that are in the market. It's a very attractive asset to have on the balance sheet. So that's kind of how we're thinking about it from that side. And that will obviously have flow through impacts into fee income in 2026, depending on the level of sold volume versus retention. of the volume on balance sheet, and that's kind of why we just gave a total revenue guidance. It could flip between NII or fee income a little bit, depending on our optionality and how we lean into that, but, you know, we'll deliver the total revenue that we articulated.
Yeah, just generally, we'll probably see mortgage banking income a little higher than we have in the past. We picked up a servicing portfolio there that the Citizens First Bank of the Villages was –
servicing uh that was fairly sizable and so that's a that's a nice revenue stream that'll be continuing through the income statement got it and then maybe last for me um again on on villages we touched on you know at announcement there could be several um revenue synergy opportunities and i i know we're still very early on in the process but it Are you seeing any early signs of those synergies?
Yeah, early on, we built a wealth management team. We're starting to see opportunities there. That's been great to see. As we talked about, the mortgage business has gone very well, really exceptionally well. We like everything we're seeing there with the mortgage business. Ultimately, with time, we'd like to get some insurance offerings in that market as we have an insurance agency just north of there near Gainesville. So we're continuing to look at opportunities to expand our carrier rights into that market, and hopefully with time we'll find our way there. But the biggest driver that we've seen so far is just the wealth management side of the business is starting to get traction there.
Got it. All right, that's all from me. Thanks for taking my questions. Awesome, Woody. Thank you.
That concludes our question and answer session. I will now turn the call over to Chuck Schaefer for any closing remarks. Mr. Schaefer?
Okay, thank you, Operator. Thank you all for joining us today. We appreciate the support. Thank you to our team for another great quarter and on to an awesome 2026. So that will wrap up our call.
This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.
