Sinclair, Inc.

Q1 2022 Earnings Conference Call

5/4/2022

spk00: Certain matters discussed on this call may include forward-looking statements regarding, among other things, future operating results. Such statements are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties. Actual results in the future could differ from those described in the forward-looking statements as a result of various important factors. Such factors have been set forth in the company's most recent reports as filed with the SEC and included in the company undertakes no obligation to update these forward-looking statements. The company uses its website as a key source of company information, which can be accessed at www.sbgi.net. In accordance with Regulation FD, this call is being made available to the public. A webcast replay will be available on our website and will remain available until the next quarterly earnings release. Included on the call will be a discussion of non-GAAP financial measures, specifically adjusted EBITDA, adjusted free cash flow, and leverage. The company considers adjusted EBITDA to be an indicator of the operating performance of its assets. The company also believes that adjusted EBITDA is frequently used by industry analysts, investors, and lenders as a measure of valuation. These measures are not formulated in accordance with GAAP and are not meant to replace GAAP measurements and may differ from other companies' uses or formulations. The company does not provide reconciliations on a forward-looking basis. Further discussions and reconciliations of the company's non-GAAP financial measures Chris Ripley will now take you through our operating highlights.
spk01: Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. Two weeks ago, we notified the investment community via an 8 filing that we would be deconsolidating Diamond from our financials. This is a consequence of Diamond's new financing, which dictated how Diamond's board of managers would be selected and certain significant operating decisions approved. While on the surface, this may seem to add complexity, we believe it will result in a more simplified, transparent, and focused valuation and credit story for our various stakeholders. While Diamond will no longer be included in Sinclair's financial results beginning on March 1, 2022, Sinclair continues to own nearly 100% of the equity of Diamond, and the deconsolidation is not intended to indicate a change in our commitment to Diamond's success or a change in Diamond's future business plans. I'll turn it over to Lucy to speak more about the mechanics and implications of the deconsolidation.
spk09: Thank you, Chris. The deconsolidation of Diamond is a required GAAP accounting treatment, and all impacts from it are non-cash in nature. The date of the deconsolidation was March 1, 2022, which was the date the Diamond first lien financing closed. The deconsolidation of Diamond resulted in a non-cash gain of approximately 3.4 billion, which was primarily driven by the fact that Diamond was in a net liability position at the time of deconsolidation. Post-March 1st, Diamond is accounted for under the equity method of accounting. And as a reminder, DSG is a separate debt silo which is non-recourse to Sinclair. In addition, marquee will be deconsolidated from diamonds financials as of March 1st and will be accounted for under the equity method of accounting. Later today, we will follow a form 8K, which will contain pro forma financial statements for the year ended December 31st, 2021, reflecting Sinclair as if deconsolidation of diamond occurred as of January 1st, 2021. On our website, we've included supplemental and historical pro forma numbers for Sinclair so you can align your models. If you have any questions, please reach out to our investor relations department. Because of the deconsolidation, our earnings releases will no longer include guidance for Diamond as you saw in this morning's release. However, our website will include some high-level estimates as well as Diamond's quarterly and annual financials, which we will continue to post there each quarter. Lastly, the format of our earnings calls will change. Today, we will bifurcate the call and do a Sinclair-only portion addressing Sinclair's pro forma results, followed by a Diamond portion of the call. Next quarter, we will have two separate calls. We remain committed to continuing to provide financial information and commentary regardless of the format.
spk01: I'll let Rob and Lucy go over the first quarter operating and financial results in just a moment, but first I would like to give some strategic comments. Over the last few quarters, I have talked about the value of our investment portfolio, which we estimate is over $18 a share. The portfolio is made up of investments in real estate, venture capital, and private equity holdings, and direct strategic investments in companies. One comment we've heard from investors is whether we can or are willing to monetize that value. The answer is, of course, we are, which is clearly evident from the monetization of our investments, even in recent years. For example, in 2022, year-to-date alone, we've monetized approximately $40 million of investments, generating an annualized return of 30% and a multiple uninvested capital of 1.8 times. All three of these investments were acquired within the last three years. Not only do we continue to be opportunistic in monetizing these investments above just a simple return, but our initial thesis to enter into them is often steeped in how they can strategically benefit us and the future direction of the organization. Sankey Labs is one such example that I will talk about in a moment. And keep in mind, our investment portfolio as a whole has generated an approximate 24% average rate of return since 2014. One of the recent holdings to which we've agreed to monetize our investment was Sankey Labs. In March, it was announced that Sankey, an entity for which we had held a 49% interest, was being acquired by Tejas Networks. an Indian-based technology company which produces optical and data networking products and majority owned by Tata Group. You might recall Sankhya is a valued partner of ours that is developing chips for mobile devices for use in receiving ATSC 2.0 broadcasting. Tejas will first be acquiring a large portion of Sankhya followed by a merger with the rest of Sankhya in the future. The result will be an initial cash payment to Sinclair of $22 million monetizing a portion of Sinclair's ownership, with Sinclair eventually expected to hold 1.5 million shares of Tejas Networks after the merger is completed. Tejas Networks is publicly traded on the National Indian Exchange, and the 1.5 million shares would have a value of about 9 million at current price and exchange rate. This is an IRR of over 30% over the two and a half year investment period. An additional value for the transaction is that Sankia gains a new parent company, Tata, which has significant resources and is committed to driving continued progress and innovation, especially around next-gen's potential in the Indian market and globally. We certainly look forward to continuing to work with Sankia, Tejas, and Tata in the future. The hidden value in our company goes beyond our investment portfolio. Other assets like Tennis Channel, Nuzon, and Compulse360 carry meaningful upside that should be valued above the standard broadcast multiple. You can expect to hear more about these important assets going forward with increased transparency around both their operating results and their growth potential in the years ahead. For those of you not familiar with Compulse 360, it is our marketing technology business that offers a SaaS platform combining sales enablement, order management fulfillment, and analytics into one consolidated solution for local media companies, agencies, and small businesses. Compulse 360 has grown significantly over the last three years, aided by acquisitions and organic client additions. Its revenue is expected to surpass $100 million this year, driven by the rollout of incremental capabilities, including a new planning tool, streaming integrations, and location-based advertising, and a self-serve OTT solution, which will increase its appeal and broaden its market potential. The key takeaway is that we have significant value in our company beyond our broadcast business. We remain committed to monetizing our holdings through a number of different avenues with an eye towards adding value for our shareholders either directly or indirectly. I would now like to point out a couple of our ESG initiatives we are working on around reducing our company's and our viewers' impact on the planet. We launched our battery recycling pilot at a number of our locations in April and also ran a public service campaign with all of our TV stations and RSNs for Earth Day and the month of April. encouraging viewers to recycle their batteries by dropping them off at Batteries Plus, a partner of ours for the campaign, or at other recycling locations. We also switched to notice and access for our annual report this year, reducing our printed paper accounts by approximately 90%, which reduced our annual report and proxy costs by almost 50%. Also, I want to say that we are honored that the renowned Dr. Ben Carson, an experienced board director and former U.S. presidential primary candidate and former secretary of the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, has agreed to stand for election to Sinclair's board of directors in June as we continue to seek out those with diversity of thought, experience, and skills to strengthen our company. On the NextGen front, we had a very exciting NAB conference. ATFC 3.0 or NextGen was the main attraction, and we had announcements and demonstrations around its many use cases, including precision GPS. Just a couple of weeks ago, we announced an important partnership with USSI Global. Together, we are offering a pilot of the first commercial data casting use of NextGen in the U.S. USSI Global will utilize NextGen technology to bring curated content and targeted advertising to its electric vehicle charging stations while allowing users for the collection of audience data and impression-based analytics. This is the first step in a new area of business for us, data delivery as a service. We expect this will be an attractive source of revenue for revenue generation in the years ahead. While this technology can be utilized in many ways across many different industries, the electric vehicle opportunity alone is significant. The US Department of Transportation has earmarked $5 billion towards the goal of 500,000 EV charging stations nationwide by 2030 to meet the surge in the production and demand of electrical vehicles, which has already commenced. On a higher level, this is a significant announcement that validates the digital promise that there are ancillary services that can generate incremental dollars for broadcasters. This is a first small step to opening that door to future possibilities in many different use cases. Another aspect of NextGen that will be critical to its success and the development of the tools to allow the emerging of broadcast and broadband services. Sinclair has contributed significantly to the creation of a solution that all broadcasters will be able to utilize. This technology will allow efficient use of channels to maximize data business opportunities. And we have invested a great deal of time and effort to develop the technological tools to enable consumers to access broadcast or internet content through both fixed and mobile devices, and at the same time, have space left to deliver other content or data. We are committed to ensuring that this access is available to all parts of the ecosystem. This explains why we've decided to develop and deploy a broadcast app open to all via a free open source license. A common approach utilized across the entire broadcast industry will be the most efficient and effective way to promote consumer adoption and help all parties monetize the significant opportunities NextGen offers. I'd now like to turn it over to Rob Weissbord, our Chief Operating Officer, who, along with Lucy, will go over Sinclair's first quarter results.
spk04: Good morning, everyone. My commentary in this section will strictly be related to our broadcasts and other businesses only. The year started strong with first quarter performer media revenue up significantly over the prior year and at the top end of our guidance range. Political is tracking above our expectations and we look forward to 2022 having a record midterm election span. On the content front, We continue to build our viewership for the National Desk with its 36 hours of programming each week. We recently launched an hour-long weekend edition, and we'll be debuting a daily TND weather program, which will start on our digital and social platforms before expanding to linear later in the year. And our award-winning news programming continues to garner recognition. winning 60 awards so far this year, including its fourth consecutive year of being honored with a prestigious IRE award for an outstanding investigating reporting. This year, it was WBFF Fox Baltimore, which won for its reporting on Baltimore's public school system. WBFF has won three IREs awards since it created its investigative news team in 2017. On a cumulative basis, Sinclair has won over 1,000 awards over the last three years. Everyone at Sinclair is proud of our news team and their dedication and results to serving the public. In our tennis business, standalone fast channel T2 launched on Samsung TVs during the quarter, putting a new tennis channel product in front of a platform that's been reported to reach 25 to 30 million viewers. All Samsung TVs made since 2017 carry the channel to viewers. And during big events like the French Open, Miami Open, T2 is given prominent position at the front of Samsung's fast channel lineup. T2 carries unique live court coverage year-round that is not covered on Tennis Channel and Tennis Channel Plus. Tennis Channel Plus streamed hours more than doubled and authenticated streaming of Linear Tennis Channel was up 170%, as viewers increasingly watched tennis on a cross-platform experience. In April, we rolled out our second Tennis Predictor game, a free-to-play game in conjunction with the Indian Wells tournament. And we will be adding new features for future tennis gamification efforts. In fact, we will continue our work on integrating game centers and game zones across all our platforms, including our websites, encouraging participation and creating incentives like earning points that can be used for prizes and exclusive content and experience not available anywhere else. I'll conclude my remarks by noting how pleased we are with the renewal of our multi-year distribution agreement with Charter, which includes our local broadcast stations, the Tennis Channel, the 19 Valley Sports RSNs, Marquee, and the Yes Network. I'll now turn it over to Lucy who will delve deeper into the Sinclair financials.
spk09: Thank you, Rob. Given the deconsolidation of Diamond on March 1st of this year, and in order to have a meaningful discussion around comparative results and trends, I'm going to speak to the Sinclair-only pro forma numbers for all periods, which excludes dispositions made in 2021 and does not include Diamond and any intercompany transactions with them. For actual results, including the two months of this year that Diamond was consolidated, please refer to this morning's earnings release. After the deconsolidation of the local sports segment, Sinclair will now be synonymous with what we have called broadcast, incorporate, and other on recent earnings calls. There are supplemental slides and pro formas posted on our website to assist in your modeling and analysis. And as mentioned earlier, this portion of the call is only for the broadcast segment and other incorporate. The local sports or diamond results will be handled in the second portion of this conference call. Media revenues for the quarter. We're at the high end of our guidance range and up 9% versus the same period a year ago on a pro forma basis, driven by higher distribution and political ad revenues. Distribution revenues increased 7% versus last year and beat the high end of our guidance range primarily due to more favorable revenue from the virtual distributors. Core advertising increased 3% in the first quarter compared to the same period a year ago and was in line with our expectations, while total advertising revenues increased 7% over last year. Although media expenses were 7% higher in this year's first quarter versus last year, they were favorable to our guidance on both timing of expenses and lower news and G&A costs. Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter grew 14% over the first quarter of last year and more than exceeded the high end of guidance. Earnings per share for the quarter excluding diamond for the two months, the non-cash deconsolidation gain and other adjustments was $1.23 per share. Adjusted free cash flow of 176 million in the quarter, where $2.40 per share also came in stronger than our expectations and grew over last year by 48 million. So in short, this was a very strong first quarter for us. As Chris pointed out, with the investor focus on Diamond for the past two years, it's easy to overlook that this is the 14th of the last 16 quarters where STG met or exceeded media revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance. The two outlier periods were due to the cyber incident and the initial impact of COVID in Q1 of 2020. And I think you'll agree that meeting or exceeding expectations for all but two quarters out of the last four years is a strong track record of delivering on expectations. Our liquidity and balance sheet remained strong, with $521 million of cash at the end of the quarter. And with an undrawn revolver, our liquidity was almost $1.2 billion at quarter end. Total debt at the end of the first quarter was $4.4 billion, and STG's first lien indebtedness ratio on a trailing eight quarters basis was 2.9 times on a covenant of four and a half, and 4.3 times on a net leverage basis through the bond, which continues to be in our target range and better than many in our peer group. Of our $176 million of free cash flow generated during the quarter, $7 million was allocated to debt repayments and $18 million to common stock dividends. And if you recall in our last earnings call, we announced a 25% increase to the quarterly dividend rate per share. We also resumed our 10B51 stock buyback program during the quarter, repurchasing since our February earnings report another almost 1.5 million shares. Year-to-date, we have repurchased a total of 3.5 million shares at an average price of $26.60 for $94 million of buybacks. Our repurchases were almost 5% of our 2021 shares outstanding. So when you consider our first quarter free cash flow, over 65% of it has gone towards debt repayment and shareholder returns. Turning to our second quarter guidance, we expect another strong quarter for political, which is the main driver for media revenues increasing, approximately 4% to 7% versus pro forma second quarter last year. Second quarter total advertising revenue is expected to be up high single digit to low teen percent versus Q2 of last year. Second quarter adjusted EBITDA is expected to be 153 to 170 million compared to 193 million pro forma last year. While total advertising and net retrans are expected to grow in the quarter, the lower amount is primarily the result of technology and infrastructure upgrades, management fee deferral, and marketing content and next-gen initiatives. Free cash flow for the second quarter is expected to be $246 to $266 million. We're $3.46 to $3.74 per share for the quarter. And so with that, I would like to open it up to questions related only to the broadcast and other segments. Operator?
spk13: Ladies and gentlemen, the floor is now open for questions. If you have any questions or comments, please press star 1 on your phone at this time. We ask that while posing your question, you please pick up your handset if listening on a speakerphone to provide optimum sound quality. Please hold whilst we poll for questions. Thank you. Your first question is coming from Aaron Watts of Deutsche Bank. Aaron, please pose your question.
spk05: Hi, everyone. Thank you for having me on. I've got a couple questions. I wanted to start on the advertising side. I apologize if I missed this, but Lucy, did you say what core was pacing in the second quarter? And then beyond that, are you seeing any signs that inflation or other concerns around an economic slowdown, recession looming, are impacting advertisers' spend or commitments or buying decisions from your partners?
spk04: Yeah, Aaron, this is Rob. I'll answer it. Currently, we are watching for the inflation. But we haven't seen the results of softening at this point. But we are factoring in what we're looking at to ensure that we're covering our basis in case inflation sets in. And the core guidance will be that we will exceed what our revenues were in 2018 and 2019. Okay. Got it.
spk05: Secondly, Chris, on the last call, you commented that net retransmission fees for the station group were expected to grow in the low single-digit context for 2022. With the charter renewal now completed, can you update us on that metric? Is that low single-digit net retrans growth rate impacted for this year? And if you're comfortable, maybe what you're expecting for net retrans growth next year as well.
spk01: Sure. So we did exceed our expectations on the charter renewal. That being said, the overall net retrans guide for this year will still be low single digits. Okay.
spk09: And Aaron, if I can just come back to one thing that Rob talked about. The total revenue, total ad revenues, we're looking at that to exceed 2018-2019 Q2.
spk01: Which I think is particularly important, Erin, as everyone can appreciate that those are both unaffected pre-pandemic quarters, and 2018 was a political year as well. So obviously political is coming in very strong, like we mentioned, and setting up for a great year.
spk04: Darren, you should note that both issue and candidate money is very strong since the beginning of the year, which will bode, obviously, some crowd out, but we will have rates increasing due to the demand for our inventory.
spk05: Okay. That's encouraging. And, Lucy, or Rob, is what you said about core still true, that it should still be up versus those prior periods?
spk09: It's, you know, Aaron, it'll probably be a little bit down to those periods just for what Rob said, which is that we're seeing in, you know, political in the second quarter is running a lot hotter than it had in 18. And so we are seeing in certain day parts some crowd out effect. But that's all a good thing because at the end of the day, the total ad revenues are pacing up.
spk05: Got it. Okay. Less about the kind of ad environment, more about the kind of political crowd out. Okay.
spk04: Yeah, it's a political crowd out. If you look at how the strength of our stations in Texas, Ohio, Pennsylvania, you're seeing extensive spending. So that crowd out will naturally affect our core business.
spk05: Okay. Great. I'll stop there and jump back in the queue. Thank you.
spk13: Thank you. Thank you. The next question is coming from Dan Kernoff of the Benchmark Company. Dan, the floor is yours.
spk06: Thanks. Can we just dive a little bit deeper into the core commentary just around category strength and what you guys are seeing? You know, it doesn't sound like any of the March national weaknesses filtered over into local, and it sounds like given some of the strength in sports ratings, sports betting is still pretty healthy, so maybe just some category color from what you're seeing to backstop your commentary would be a good start and a good follow-up. Thanks.
spk04: Yes. As we've stated over the last several calls, our reliance on auto has been mitigated by our focuses in the service retail food categories, and those remain strong, and so that holds well for when auto does return and we expect it to return. We've spoken to many large tier three auto groups and they're holding on to their co-op money to spend when the chip shortage is solved and the expectations are now towards the end of 2022 into 2023. So with the political crowd out, it increases our viability going to even 2023.
spk15: Got it.
spk06: And then just on the retrans, I mean, maybe more academic, given Chris's comments around, you know, the charter renewal and low single-digit net, but just help us understand. So, Lucy made commentary that the virtuals drove the upside. I mean, it's a pretty substantial upside in Q1. I don't know if there's any other noise from you guys resetting some of your prior deals to having escalators on Jan 1. or if there was something else in there. I don't know if charter is going to be – if you're going to have a true-up given that the deal was pushed out, but just can you help us think why there would be a step down in 2Q after sort of the significant upside in Q1? I'm just trying to understand the dynamics of what's going on.
spk09: Yeah, so we did have – you know, some estimates in for the charter renewal in our Q1. So that was already taken into account. You know, we did see some strength in some of the virtuals, as I mentioned in Q1. However, we are seeing on some of the traditional MBPDs, a couple that have reported recently, you know, a little bit of softening in their churn. So we've taken that into account in our estimates.
spk06: Then maybe just, I guess, Lucy, it would help just in terms of the cadence of the year, just remind us what else is up the rest of this year.
spk09: Yeah, so nothing major for the rest of this year, and in fact, nothing major really for, you know, the next, call it, you know, 18 months.
spk06: Okay. I guess I'll get back in the queue and ask questions on the second half of the call. Thank you.
spk09: Okay. Thank you.
spk13: Okay. The next question is coming from Stephen Cahill. Stephen, the floor is yours.
spk12: Thank you. So thanks for giving the free cash flow number for the quarter. Just curious if that's something you might think about guiding to for the year along with the rest of your guidance. All of your peers usually give annual or two-year free cash flow. Now that it's not commingled with Diamond, I was just wondering if that's something you might provide. It will probably help us value the standalone broadcast business. And with that, I was wondering if you could comment on the state of your NOLs now that you're deconsolidating Diamond.
spk09: Yeah, so I'll do the last one first. So no change on the NOLs. The Diamond deconsolidation is an accounting treatment only, no impact from a tax standpoint. And then on the free cash flow, that is something, Stephen, we're going to take a look at. We used to provide that pre-pandemic. And so we'll take another look at, you know, about providing some kind of a future range there.
spk12: Great. And then maybe just also as it relates to the relationship between Diamond and Sinclair, I imagine that Diamond benefited a lot from doing affiliate renewals and ad sales along with STG. Now that you all don't have the same control of the board of Diamond like you used to, does that change that strategy at all? Does it push the TV group to act a little bit more independently or at arm's length, or do you still expect to share a lot of the strategy between the two? Thanks.
spk01: Thanks, Steve. This really doesn't change the operating relationship between Sinclair and Diamond. There is, of course, we own nearly 100% of the equity, and also there's the management agreement between the two, which is really the important relationship important aspect of the relationship. So we don't expect that this accounting change will change the way we operate at all.
spk15: Great. Thank you.
spk13: Thank you. Okay. The next question is coming from David Karmofsky of J.P. Morgan. David, please pose your question.
spk14: Thank you. Chris, just regarding the data casting opportunity that you were speaking about for your spectrum, you know, what do you think the timeline is from here in terms of completing the tech rollout and signing up business partners to new models and then ultimately having this be, you know, a material amount of revenue for Sinclair Stations or for the industry? Thanks.
spk01: Yeah. So, you know, some of the most promising opportunities applications that we saw at NAB probably came from FitPath around precision GPS and demand response for utilities, which, just to get a little deeper on that, that's when, as utilities rely more on renewable energy balancing, supply and demand is becoming an increasingly hard task, and BitPath has developed a way for them to essentially negotiate with all of their millions of end users simultaneously to balance supply and demand. So we think that's a really great application, enhanced GPS for any number of things, from making sure e-scooters aren't left on the sidewalk confined, to autonomous vehicles knowing exactly where they are. As it turns out, normal GPS can be have an error rate of up to 10 meters, which we can significantly impact through our ATSC 3.0 technology and correction data. And those applications, along with our trial with USSI Global, I think they will start to yield revenue for the industry next year. And I expect that will start to ramp quickly as people realize how the use cases within NextGen, I'm talking beyond broadcast here, bring significant advantages to the ecosystem. And as that happens, the developer ecosystem around NextGen will proliferate and more use cases will be developed.
spk15: Thank you.
spk13: Thank you very much. Your next question is coming from Barton Crockett. of Rosenblatt Securities. Barton, over to you.
spk07: Okay, great. Thanks for the question. You know, just one kind of smaller thing because some of the bigger things I was interested in have been covered, but on other revenue within the television group, you know, I think in 2021 that was 176 million of which 111 million was services I think provided to Diamond that were eliminated on consolidation. So I just want to be clear what the treatment is now with the deconsolidation. Is that no longer eliminated? And, you know, how should we think about that? And what that would mean also for the equity and JV part of Diamond going forward? To the extent you can talk about that here earlier.
spk09: No, I can take it. So you're correct. You know, the management fees were eliminated between the two entities. Now that will not happen. So the Sinclair silo will... be recognizing the cash portion only of the management fee. And that will run through the revenue. And then Diamond will be reflecting the full contractual expense amount before it's adjusted EBITDA. We'll be adding back the deferred portion.
spk07: Okay. but maybe to follow up on that was, were those $111 million in fees in 2021, is that now what's been deferred with the refinancing, or is that still kind of coming in going forward?
spk09: No, I mean, look, and we've given a range of this before, but, you know, for the full year, you know, the total management fee is, I'm rounding these numbers, about $140 million. Of that, $60 million is paid in cash and $80 million is deferred.
spk07: Okay. All right. And then to switch gears a little bit, with the deconsolidation, how does that impact your capacity and interest in share repurchase? I mean, you guys have been active in the past, and I don't know if this makes you more interested or just talk about what this does for your kind of appetite for your own shares at this point.
spk01: Sure. So it really is just an accounting change. So it really changes nothing about the fundamentals of the company from an economic perspective. But I do think it actually makes the story simpler for everyone to understand, for all our stakeholders to understand. So we're going to use this as an opportunity to retell our story, make it simpler. And in terms of buying back our stock, we have tremendous appetite for that. We think we're incredibly undervalued. The sum of the parts story is still the same as it was last quarter, if not stronger. And so our appetite is there regardless of the deconsolidation. Okay. That's great.
spk07: Thank you very much.
spk13: Thank you. Your next question is coming from Lance Vitamza of Cowen. Lance, please ask your question.
spk03: Hi, thanks, guys. Most of my questions are on the diamond side, but as long as I have you, I will ask, are you getting any feedback from advertisers that would lend any credence to the recession fears that seem to be gripping so much of the markets over the past three, four weeks?
spk04: Yeah, we continue to monitor. We speak with our clients on a daily basis. And right now, they're still hanging tough with their advertising. But like I said earlier, we will continue to monitor this and have ongoing conversations with these advertisers. We're presenting plans to them in case their fears get magnified in a bigger way. We have all the data points to show that even during tough economic times, those that advertise come out of the tough economic times in a stronger position in the marketplace. So we are having those conversations now in case the situation worsens.
spk03: Thank you.
spk13: Thank you. Thank you very much. Your next question is coming from David Hamburger of Morgan Stanley. David, over to you.
spk08: Hi, thank you. Good morning. I have a quick question with regard to, I mean, you stated here now that Sinclair remains owner of nearly 100% of DSG. I guess in the past, I've noticed with disclosures, you've said that you own more than 90%. Can you remind us exactly what the ownership structure is? How much do you own the minority shareholders? I believe maybe Byron Allen and others are still minority and how much they own?
spk01: That's correct, David. The one minority shareholder is Byron Allen, and it's a very small amount. That's why we say nearly 100%.
spk08: Okay, and notwithstanding the $3.4 billion non-cash gain, in your kind of your sum of the parts analysis for Sinclair in terms of your asset portfolio, how are you valuing the DSG equity ownership stake?
spk01: So in some of the parts that we have talked about, we have not included any credit for the equity of Diamond. However, I think that there certainly is value there. And, you know, anyone looking at that should attribute at least option value to that position.
spk15: Okay. Thank you very much.
spk16: Thank you very much.
spk13: There appear to be no more questions in the queue. I will now hand over to Chris Ripley, President and CEO. Sir, the floor is yours.
spk01: Thank you. I want to start the Diamond portion of the call by thanking Diamond stakeholders for their support around Diamond's recent capital structure activities. We are pleased to have closed the $635 million refinancing, which along with Sinclair's deferral of management fees, meaningfully enhances liquidity by an approximate billion dollars. We believe these steps allow Diamond to be self-funding for the next several years and enables the launch and ramp up of its local sports direct consumer efforts a significant initiative which is important to Diamond's future. As you may have seen, this week we announced the Diamond New Board of Managers, which was required in conjunction with the refinancing. This is an impressive slate of seasoned executives from the world of sports, media, streaming, and related industries. The five-member board consists of myself and four independents, including Randy Ferrier, former CEO of Hulu and longtime president of Fox Sports Media, who will serve as chairman. The other members of the board are Mary Ann Turk, who was chief operating officer of the NFL, Bob Whitsitt, a 30-year senior executive previously with the NBA and NFL, and David Preschlak, who was president of the NBCU RSNs. The board's experience will be invaluable, especially around Diamond's direct-to-consumer efforts in building future partnerships. In regard to Diamond's D2C plans for Valley Sports, we expect to do a soft launch later this quarter. The initial launch will enable the validation of the quality and reliability of the product prior to the full D2C rollout of the Valley Sports RSN's plan for September. The initial D2C product will offer an experience similar to what viewers now see on the TV Everywhere platform, and the price point is expected to be attractive as compared to other similar professional sports D2C offerings at $189.99 for an annual subscription and $19.99 for a month-to-month subscription, resulting in an expected ARPU of $18.50. In the months after launch, we expect to roll out an enhanced D2C product incorporating additional functionality, content, and features with incremental ways to monetize the viewer through a more personalized and interactive experience. Now I'll turn it over to Rob.
spk04: From an operations standpoint, The MLB resolved their collective bargaining lockout, and while the regular season was delayed, the league is scheduled to play the full season of games. In terms of our gamification efforts for Diamond, we continue to move forward with our business plan to initially roll out three predictive games for all the teams we represent. In the first quarter, we debuted Valley Baller and Valley Breakaway games for our basketball and hockey leagues. And Bally's home run blast is expected to debut in June and will run throughout the remainder of the baseball season with chances to win monthly prizes. Our partnership with Bally's and other gaming companies will continue to help drive our RSN gamification efforts going forward. I also want to touch on the RSN viewership, which for the 2021-2022 NBA season was up from both a rating and TV household perspective. MLB viewing trends have started favorably, as well as remain above a year ago's level. We continue to be encouraged by the view shift trends, and we have launched recently two new programs to air on the RSN, The Rally and Live on the Line. Later this year, we will be debuting a new show called The Rivals, and we are also working on short-form and long-form programming development. for the launch of our D2C app and our TVE app. As I mentioned on the Sinclair portion of the call, we renewed our multi-year distribution agreement with Charter, which included our 19 Valley Sports RSNs, Marquee, and the YES Network. I'll now turn it over to Lucy to go over the quarterly financials in more detail.
spk09: Thank you, Rob. Okay, so just a reminder, the marquee also falls under deconsolidation and equity method accounting within Diamonds Financials as of March 1st. And we are in process of getting an appraisal in order to book the non-cash accounting adjustment based on the asset disposition trigger for marquee and expect to have that valuation later this quarter. we will not be giving Diamond pro formas due to the confidentiality around deconsolidating marquee from the Diamond results. On our website, however, you can find Diamond's first quarter actuals and guidance for 2022. Note that today's earnings press release for Sinclair Consolidated Company reflects two months of Diamond in the local sports segment table due to the March 1st deconsolidation. The Q1 results for Diamond that I will be discussing here and which are posted on our website are for the full three-month period for Diamond, which includes three months of the Valley Sports RSNs and two months of Marquee's results due to its deconsolidation. Diamond media revenues were $709 million in the first quarter Distribution revenues of $630 million continue to be based on high single-digit percent subscriber churn, while advertising revenue on a per-game basis is growing. Diamonds media expenses for the first quarter were $650 million. Adjusted EBITDA for the first quarter, excluding $11 million for non-recurring items and deferred management fees. was a negative $155 million. And as a reminder, the first quarter is typically the lowest EBITDA quarter for the year due to timing of the rights payments. Now, we have done much to strengthen Diamond's future liquidity position and to enable it to build, launch, and grow its D2C offering. On March 1st, Diamond closed on a new $635 million first lien loan, which matures May 2026. Sinclair also agreed to defer a portion of its management fees over the next several years. Together, the new money raised and the management fee deferral provide Diamond with about a billion of liquidity enhancement over time. Diamond's cash at quarter end was $572 million, and its $228 million revolver was undrawn for liquidity of $800 million as of March 31st. Total debt at the end of the first quarter was $8.6 billion, and the AR facility was $163 million. Looking ahead to the second quarter, media revenues are expected to be $759 to $766 million, and distribution revenues are expected to be $621 to $623 million. Included in the estimate is continued subscriber churn of high single-digit percents, which is offset by $28 million in distribution revenue recognized from a one-time audit settlement amount from a distributor. Advertising revenues are expected to be $130 to $135 million on almost 300 fewer games expected in this year's second quarter versus last year. For the full year, media revenues are expected to be $2.88 billion to $2.9 billion. Second quarter adjusted EBITDA is expected to be $132 to $138 million, which includes fewer games, the D to C cost, and continued subscriber churn, which are offset in part by lower management fees and the one-time distributor audit settlement. Full year adjusted EBITDA is expected to be 221 to 239 million. As compared to our February outlook for full year adjusted EBITDA between 266 and 297 million, some of the changes are the result of the deconsolidation of marquee, timing of the D2C launch within the second quarter, and slightly higher subscriber churn along with still high single-digit percents, offset by the audit settlement benefit and slightly better ad revenues and expenses. So with that, I would like to open it up to questions related solely to the sports business for Diamond. Operator?
spk13: Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, the floor is now open once again for questions. If you have any questions or comments, please press star one on your phone at this time. Please wait while we poll for questions. Thank you. Your first question is coming from Dan Kournos of Benchmark Company. Dan, over to you.
spk15: Dan, you there? Yeah, hey, can you guys hear me? Hey, can you guys hear me? Sorry about that. I don't know what happened.
spk06: Apologies. Lucy, thanks for all the color on all of that. I assume that's also the reason why the monthly average for the two months is different than for the full quarter is because of marquee in there in Q1. I guess, Chris, maybe high level, given all of the noise in the marketplace around S5, and, you know, saturation, obviously, Netflix at a slightly different stage of their existence than the RSN products. But just how are you thinking about kind of marketing, marketing expense, going to, you know, and all of the other things that go to play as you guys, you know, build up towards this DTC launch and how the market will sort of bear the product given everything that's out there?
spk01: Yeah, this is a great question. Actually, the recent developments within the streaming landscape, I view them as very favorable for what we're doing because the market is rationalizing. And it was inevitable that a momentum story would eventually cycle to the end. They always do. And the market becomes more rational. And our plan for Valley Sports Plus was never about subscriber growth for the sake of subscriber growth. It was a plan to produce incremental profitability for diamond sports. And so now we feel like the market has actually caught up to our thinking in terms of our plan. And that will have many benefits for us. In terms of relative pricing comparisons, I expect that... the entertainment value equation from the consumer perspective when they compare pricing of what we're offering versus pricing of some of these other SVOD services which are likely to go up in light of the current environment, that relative equation will be better. I also expect that the marketing environment to gain subscribers will get easier as people get more rational around their own marketing. And so we're really quite bullish on a change in the market environment as it relates to our strategy. In terms of our specific marketing strategy, we're not going to be really that loud for the soft launch coming up here. But as we approach the full launch, we are going to be much more aggressive on the marketing front.
spk04: And then, in addition to that, the teams have fully embraced the launch of the D2C coming up from the soft launch to the full launch, and we'll see some joint marketing efforts between Valley Sports and the teams as well. Both the teams and us have had significant Email and traffic, when are we going to launch? So there is that pent-up demand. So we look forward to joint marketing efforts with the teams.
spk01: Yeah, and I think that's a great point that needs to be emphasized in that we'll really be the first mover with real premium sports in the direct consumer marketplace. So comparing it to an entertainment-based SVOD is too simplistic. There are significant differences between sports and general entertainment Not to mention that sports has generational appeal, built-in fan bases, team partners that have massive incentives to get their fans on the service. None of that exists in general entertainment. So it's really a different ballgame, no pun intended.
spk06: Well played, Chris. The second question, I have to at least try, just given the charter renewal, any commentary around how we should be thinking about the long-tailed impacts there, you know, the DTC. I assume that that was discussed and covered. I'll try not to get into specifics, but just to the extent that you guys can talk about how those conversations went and your expectations for future conversations with distributors around the DTC product and what it might mean for distribution revenues?
spk01: Well, as you know, we have confidentiality provisions in these agreements which don't allow us to talk specific terms. But we're, as Rob stated, we're very pleased with the outcome with Charter. I think relative to market expectations, which were fairly negative, we massively exceeded those. And I would say in terms of our internal expectations, we've met or exceeded our internal expectations. And so that's about as much detail as I can give without breaking a contractual provision.
spk06: All right. Fair enough. I had to try anyway. Thanks, Chris. Appreciate it.
spk13: Thank you. Thank you. Your next question is coming from Stephen Cahill of Wells Fargo. Stephen, over to you.
spk16: Stephen, are you there?
spk15: Sorry about that.
spk12: I'll figure out this mute button in another year or so. Maybe first just a housekeeping one on the ballet performance shares and warrants. Can you talk about if there's any shift in the board's focus on those? I think those are still held by STG. So just wondering if the new board would change any of the way that those warrants or achievement of them might be looked at.
spk01: So those are held at SBG. And no, there won't be any change there.
spk12: And then, Chris, I cover a lot of media companies that are going through these linear to direct-to-consumer pivots. Pretty much bar none, there's like a period of peak EBITDA losses. Some of its content, which I know you don't have incrementally on Diamond, but a lot of it is technology costs, subscriber acquisition costs, marketing costs, you know, just all the heavy lifting. When do you all think that the kind of peak burn from the DTC initiative will happen? And how do you think about kind of the shape of EBITDA, you know, from there as there's some pressure on linear? Thank you.
spk01: Sure. So I think the best place to look for our view of that is the cleanse that we did earlier in the year. It has detailed models for, you know, five years of both the base business and the DDC business. And so you can really just see for yourself what our view is there. It really hasn't changed, you know, on the margin. Some things have changed around timing and and some of the specifics. But really, there is going to be a burn here in the beginning. Certainly, we're seeing that in 2022 flowing through the numbers, and it will persist into 2023. But as you noted, and I think this is incredibly important, the number one cost of any SVOD service is the content. And we do have some incremental cost here for content, but by and large, the freight has been paid on that, so our model ends up looking a lot different. That's why when you look at those models, they are incredibly profitable relative to other SVOD services because we don't have fully allocated in what the content costs are. Of course, there are costs around subscriber acquisition and marketing and technology costs, and that's what's really driving some of the losses here in the beginning.
spk06: Great. Thank you.
spk13: Thank you very much. Your next question is coming from Avi Steiner of JPMorgan. Avi, please ask your question.
spk02: Thank you. I've got several here. I appreciate the time. Just very quickly on the full year outlook change, you listed a bunch of factors. I'd love to confirm if marquee was the biggest number one and whether the charter renewal played a role at all in the guidance change. And then I've got a couple more. Thank you.
spk09: Sure. So, Avi, certainly marquee is a factor there. But as I pointed out, there are other factors. As Chris talked about, timing within the second quarter, the D2C launch, we have this settlement, this one-time settlement on an audit that's coming in. And as I mentioned on the Sinclair portion of the call, while we're still high single digits for churn, It's just slightly higher, still within high single-digit churn, just based on some of the recent reports by the distributors themselves as to what they're seeing. As you know, we won't see that for another quarter come in. But yes, marquee is certainly an important piece of that difference.
spk01: And Avi, to your specific question related to charter, it had no impact on the change in guidance.
spk02: Appreciate that. Okay. My second one, you have five MLB teams signed up for DTC. Your capital base has been bolstered. You have a great board of managers, distributor renewal, at least the big ones behind us. You're on the verge of a soft launch. And I'm really trying to figure out what the gating issue is to sign more MLB teams. Is it coming to terms with the teams? How much of – I guess a roadblock is Major League Baseball, if they are at all, and maybe what do they want to see? And then I've got one more. Thank you.
spk01: Sure. So, look, we have been successful in getting off-renewal additions. We had one in January. Marquee has also, you know, secured its direct consumer rights. And, you know, the rest of the teams we're having constructive dialogue on. And there isn't necessarily a, Given the status of where we are in our launch, there isn't really a huge timing rush on that, but we are having constructive discussions on it.
spk04: We're also having constructive conversations at the league level as well, both with our teams and with MLB itself.
spk02: Okay. Thank you. My very last one, and I appreciate the time. So now that Diamond has this new board of managers and it is deconsolidated as required, I'm curious if Diamond now maybe has more flexibility to pursue either balance sheet remedies or strategic alternatives that perhaps they could not have pursued under the prior consolidated structure. And again, thank you all for the time.
spk01: Thanks, Avi. I mean, I guess technically the answer to that would be no because it was really a self- contained silo from day one, so it did have all the flexibility it needed to pursue deleveraging, exchanges, mergers, what have you. And so philosophically, the accounting change doesn't really change that. But I do want to stress that all of those options are something we are actively evaluating as, you know, you're certainly, this isn't the last, you know, transaction or, you know, recapitalization that's going to happen at Diamond. There will certainly, at least in my estimation, be more of that to come.
spk02: Appreciate the time. Thank you.
spk13: Thank you. Your next question is coming from Lance Vitanda of Cowan. Lance, over to you.
spk03: Thanks, guys. First, I just want to follow up on a question that Avi asked. The impact on the full year guidance, the reduction that we saw, the change in the launch timing, I guess I would have thought that the launch was always supposed to take place in 2022. So I'm wondering if presumably any sort of expense that got pulled forward from 23 to 22 to put downward pressure on the EBITDA guides would be pretty modest. Is that fair? And then I have a couple of follow-up questions. Thanks.
spk09: So on that, when we talk about the timing, it's really timing within the second quarter. So before we were looking more towards the front end of the second quarter. Now, The soft launch will be towards the back end of the second quarter, so it's really both a revenue and an expense shift.
spk01: But you are right in that it's a fairly modest impact. That is not the biggest impact above the impacts that changed the guidance.
spk03: Okay. And then so with the balance sheet address and a billion dollars of fresh liquidity, how comfortable are you that Diamond has the resources to make it to the other side of the DTC launch? I know you talked about this on the call, but how much cushion have you built into the model? And specifically, what would a recession in 2023 do to your confidence level?
spk01: We have a lot of confidence that we have set up Diamond for the foreseeable future with ample liquidity. Your question around a recession is interesting. Diamond is mainly contractual subscription-based revenues, which tend to fare much better through recessions than the ad market. Just to give you a reminder, it's 80%, 85% on the subscription side and 15%, 20% on the ad side. So that should give you some comfort with a recession ahead. As to how that impacts uptake on D2C, hard to say. But I do think in the beginning here, we're going to reap the benefit of the hardcore disenfranchised fans outside of the bundle coming on to something new and exciting that really hasn't existed before. And I think that happens regardless of the economic backdrop.
spk04: When you look at the value proposition versus the cost of a ticket, it's a huge value proposition for the fan. And the fans remain recession or in good times as well.
spk03: Okay, great. And then my last question is, you know, Chris, you'd mentioned those, the cleansing materials. And I just, so we're still operating, strictly speaking, in a case one world, I assume, right? But when you think about the opportunity, really, do you, I mean, do you imagine we wind up somewhere between case two and case three? In other words, you know, isn't it likely we get all of your linear teams eventually on DTC? And really, the only question is, how much benefit you'll get from higher take rates due to sports betting legalization, I would think. Is that sort of a fair way to characterize it?
spk01: Yeah, again, we always hate to speculate, but I do think what you said is right. And we are currently in a case one world today, but when I think about the future, it looks more like a case two or case three.
spk15: Thanks, guys.
spk13: Thank you. Thank you. Your next question is coming from Barton Crockett of Rosenblatt Securities. Barton, please ask your question.
spk07: Okay, great. Thank you. So I wanted to just talk a little bit about the high single-digit subchurn and how to think about that trajectory over coming quarters because I know that that has in the past been influenced by some drops at some major distributors that were probably lapping at some point So, you know, how do we think about that? And then just kind of a related question, but I know conceptually, Charter had been floating this, although I know you can't talk about Charter, but I'm sure others are thinking it. You know, this notion that as you roll out DTC subscriptions that there should be some, you know, flexibility or maybe lesser carriage on the traditional pay TV systems. Just some thoughts about how that's playing out now that you've done the Charter renewal. So those two things would be great. Thank you.
spk01: Sure. So the high single-digit churn guide is not impacted at all by any distribution drops. So we've been in a fairly, I would say, status quo mode for long enough that that comparison is apples to apples. In terms of your question around charter, we obviously dealt with that head on in these negotiations, and we're very pleased with the outcome. So every distributor wants as much flexibility as possible, but at the same time, they need the content. So it's always that push and pull in every negotiation.
spk07: Well, if I could follow up, what would you say is the principal driver of the high single-digit declines, which I think are bigger than what you're seeing on the STG side, which you didn't put a number there, but I think it has historically been 5% down. Sure.
spk01: The main reason there's a difference there is that the RSNs, the only virtual MVP that carries the RSNs is DirectTV Stream. And so some of the growth in the pay TV sector is coming out of some of the other virtual MVPDs, which do not carry the RSN. So that's what creates the variation in churn between broadcast and diamond. Great. Thank you.
spk07: Thank you.
spk13: Thank you. Your next question is coming from David Hamburger of Morgan Stanley. David, please ask your question.
spk08: Hi, thanks. If I can, a couple questions. And maybe I can just ask this in a more direct fashion. If you did not deconsolidate Marquis in this quarter, would you have hit your range for guidance that you gave in the fourth quarter earnings call of $266 to $297 million of EBITDA this quarter?
spk09: So, again, that one is, look, we, yes, I believe we would have. Again, with the deconsolidation of marquee, it's a little bit more difficult to answer that off the cuff. But, yeah, for adjusted EBITDA, yeah, I believe we would have.
spk08: Okay. Thanks. And then maybe you could just help me reconcile a couple things here. So at the end of 2021, you had $479 million of cash. I believe you just disclosed you have $572 million of cash. You did a $635 million debt raise, I guess about $35 million of which was used to take out the 12.75% notes. You mentioned, Chris, I think before, you know, the cash burn for TTC has been maybe a little more front-end loaded. I assume, you know, helps reconcile some of those numbers. But also, I know, Lucy, very previously, you've given the cash rebates that have been paid to the cable companies. I think you guided to $210 million for the first half of 2022, and maybe $127 million or so of that would be in the first quarter. So can you kind of give us a little more disclosure here on, you know, what, you know, the kind of the liquidity position here and reconcile some of the cash in the quarter?
spk09: Sure, so a couple things just to take note of for your models this year, and you've pretty much mentioned all of them. First one is the new money raised and the added interest expense as it relates to that, and then, of course, any forward LIBOR and SOFR rate increases that the market's expecting on all the debt. that's not fixed. The other piece are the rebates. Let me just kind of reset the rebates for you because that has changed and in particular with the audit settlement. And so I'm just going to give you the new numbers here. 2022, there's a total of $105 million in net rebates that Diamond would pay. 2023, $62 million. that we would pay. So, you know, and for Q1 of 22, Diamond has already paid $24 million of that. So that will also, you'll be able to also spread that across your models. But really, and then you have the deferral, the management fee is the other thing to make sure that you capture in your models this year.
spk08: And how much, do you give us any sense of how much of $105 million will be paid out over the course of the year, of 22?
spk09: Yes. Well, we've paid 24 of that already, of that $105. It will be roughly $49 million in Q2. And then Q3 is about, call it $17 and $16 million.
spk08: And any way that you can help us quantify, you know, I think Chris referred to the cash burn for the direct-to-consumer launch and how that's impacted the quarter and what your expectations are there.
spk01: Yeah, we're not going to break that out at this time, but it is, you know, I think I'd refer back to the disclosure that we previously put out there. It hasn't really changed much.
spk09: Yeah. So what I would say is, you know, we've given you a full year adjusted EBITDA number. Right. So you you have that. And then to that is really just, you know, adjusting for your interest. And the, you know, the capex is minimal. It's about 30 million for the year.
spk08: OK. And then just one follow up question, if I can. You had the charter renewal. Can you give us a sense, you know, I guess the next kind of two big customers with upcoming renewals at some point would be DirecTV and Comcast. Can you give us any sense, like, how to think about when those will happen?
spk01: Those are both in the back half of 2023. Okay, great.
spk08: Thank you very much. Thank you.
spk13: Ladies and gentlemen, there appear to be no more questions in the queue. I will now hand back over to Chris Ripley for closing remarks. Sir, the floor is yours.
spk01: Thank you all for joining us today. Should you need more information or have additional questions, please don't hesitate to give us a call.
spk13: Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This does conclude today's conference call. You may disconnect your phone lines at this time and have a wonderful day. Thank you for your participation.
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