Steven Madden, Ltd.

Q1 2022 Earnings Conference Call

4/27/2022

speaker
Operator
Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the first quarter Steve Madden LTD earnings conference call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speaker's presentation, there will be a question-and-answer session. To ask a question during this session, you'll need to press star 1 on your telephone. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. If you require any further assistance, please press star 0. I would now like to hand the conference to Danielle McCoy, Vice President of Corporate Development and Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
speaker
Steve Madden
Thanks, Norma, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining our first quarter 2022 earnings call and webcast. Before we begin, I'd like to remind you that our remarks that follow, including answers to your questions, contain statements that we believe to be forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks that could cause actual results to materially differ from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. These risks include, among others, matters that we have described in our press release issued earlier today and filings we make with the SEC. We disclaim any obligation to update these forward-looking statements, which may not be updated until our next quarterly earnings conference call, if at all. The financial results discussed on today's call are on an adjusted basis, unless otherwise noted. A reconciliation to the most directly comparable gap, financial measure, and other associated disclosures are contained in our earnings release. Joining the call today are Ed Rosenfeld, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, and Zine Mazzuzzi, Chief Financial Officer. With that, I'll turn the call over to Ed.
speaker
Norma
Thanks, Danielle. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us to review Steve Madden's first quarter 2022 results. Before I begin, I would like to acknowledge the devastating war in Ukraine and the heartbreaking humanitarian crisis we are seeing in the region. We at Steve Madden have provided over $500,000 in assistance for the relief effort through cash donations from the Steve Madden Foundation, as well as donations of footwear, clothing, blankets, and accessories. We will continue to look for ways to help and stand alongside the global community calling for an immediate end to the war. Now, moving on to our first quarter results. We got off to an outstanding start to the year, delivering the highest quarterly earnings in our history in the first quarter. Q1 revenue increased 55% and diluted EPS increased 180% compared to the prior year. Overall, These results reflect the strength of our strategy and our team's execution. We are winning with product and supporting that great product with effective marketing, and that combination is driving closer connections with our consumers and increasing brand relevance, particularly for our two largest brands, Steve Madden and Dolce Vita. That, in turn, is enabling success with each of our four key business drivers. First, driving our direct-to-consumer business led by digital. DTC revenue grew over 60% in the quarter. Second, expanding in categories outside of footwear like handbags and apparel. Our branded handbag business increased more than 50%, and our apparel revenue was up more than 100% in Q1. Third, growing in international markets. Our international revenue increased over 60% in the quarter. And fourth, strengthening our core U.S. wholesale footwear business. That business also grew over 60% in Q1. So across the board, we are executing on our key strategic initiatives and seeing the results. And we are confident that our continued focus on these initiatives will enable us to continue to drive top and bottom line growth going forward. So turning to our performance by segment in Q1. Our wholesale footwear segment revenue increased 60% compared to the prior year. The Steve Madden brand drove the majority of the growth. with strong gains across Steve Madden Women's, Men's, and Kids, as well as Madden Girl. Dolce Vita was also outstanding, with revenue up over 100% to last year, as that brand's momentum continues to accelerate. In international markets, we had triple-digit percentage increases in Canada and Mexico, and another strong quarter of growth in Europe. In our wholesale accessories and apparel segment, revenue increased 37% compared to the prior year. Growth in this segment was driven primarily by strong gains in Steve Madden handbags, which was up more than 60% to the prior year, and BB Dakota Steve Madden apparel, which more than doubled compared to the year-ago period. And in our direct-to-consumer segment, revenue increased 61% versus the prior year period. e-commerce continued to account for the majority of our DTC revenue, and e-com revenue increased 57% compared to last year. Brick-and-mortar revenue increased 64% year-over-year. Overall, we are seeing robust consumer demand for our brands and strong performance across channels, product categories, and geographies. Our strategic initiatives are paying dividends, and we are confident that we are well-positioned to deliver sustainable growth for years to come. So now I will turn it over to Zine to review our first quarter financial results in more detail and provide an update to our outlook for 2022.
speaker
Steve Madden 's
ZINE ZINE- Thanks, Ed, and good morning, everyone. Our consolidated revenue in the first quarter was $559.7 million, a 55 percent increase compared to 2021, and a 34.6 percent increase versus 2019. Our wholesale revenue was $449 million, up 54.1% compared to the prior year, and up 29% compared to 2019. Wholesale footwear revenue was $346.7 million, a 59.9% increase from 2021, and a 25.4% increase from 2019. These results were primarily driven by strong performance in our flagship brand, Steve Madden, as well as in Dolce Vita and Betty Johnson. Q1 revenue also benefited from a pull forward of orders as some wholesale customers elected to front load deliveries. Wholesale accessories and apparel revenue was 102.3 million, up 37.1% to last year, and up 43% to 2019. These results were primarily driven by a strong quarter in Steve Madden handbag, which grew 59% compared to 2021, and 70% compared to 2019, in part due to some accelerations of handbag shipments from Q2. The apparel business also saw significant strength, growing triple digits compared to last year. In our direct-to-consumer segment, revenue was 108.3 million, a 60.5% increase compared to 2021, and a 72.4% increase compared to 2019. E-commerce revenue increased 57.5% compared to last year, and 244% versus 2019, reflecting strong performance in the Steve Madden, Dolce Vita, and Betsy Johnson digital businesses. Brick-and-mortar revenue increased 64.1% to last year, or 52% on a comp store basis. Comparing to 2019, brick-and-mortar revenue was up 10.4% or 13% on a comp basis. We ended the quarter with 213 brick-and-mortar retail stores, including 66 outlets, as well as six e-commerce websites and 19 company-operated concessions in international markets. Turning to our licensing and first-cost segments, our licensing royalty income was $1.6 million in the quarter, compared to $1.5 million last year and $2.5 million in 2019. First-cost commission income was $0.8 million in the quarter, compared to 0.6 million last year, and 2.4 million in 2019. Consolidated gross margin was 40.7% in the quarter, expanding 220 basis points from the prior year. And wholesale gross margin was 35.2%, a 290 basis point improvement compared to last year, driven by an increase in wholesale footwear. Direct-to-consumer gross margin was 62.3% compared to 63.5% last year, driven primarily by freight pressure. Operating expenses were $133.5 million in the quarter compared to $103.5 million last year. As a percentage of revenue, operating expenses were 23.8% in the quarter compared to 28.7% last year, reflecting expense leverage on the increased revenue and our continued discipline around expense management. Operating income for the quarter totaled $94.4 million, or 16.9% of revenue, up from $35.6 million, or 9.9% of revenue last year, and $45.1 million, or 10.8% of revenue in 2019. Our effective tax rate for the quarter was 22.3%, compared to 21.1% in 2021. Finally, net income attributable to Steve Madden Limited for the quarter was $73.4 million, or $0.92 per diluted share, up from $26.9 million, or $0.33 per diluted share in 2021, and $35.1 million, or $0.42 per diluted share in 2019. Moving to the balance sheet, our financial foundation remains very strong as of March 31, 2022. We had $180.2 million of cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments, and no debt. Inventory totaled $233.4 million compared to $106.6 million last year. Inventory continues to be higher than historical levels due to our need to place production orders earlier due to the supply chain disruption and longer transit lead times, but we remain comfortable with the amount and the content of our inventory and our ability to meet our customer ship windows. Our capex in the quarter was $3.6 million. During the quarter, we repurchased 42.4 million of the company's common stock, which includes shares acquired through the net settlement of employee stock awards. The company's board of directors approved a quarterly cash dividend of 21 cents per share. The dividend will be payable on June 24th, 2022, to stockholders of record as of the close of business on June 13, 2022. Turning to our outlook, based on the strong start to the year, we are raising our revenue and earnings per share guidance. We now expect revenue to increase 13% to 16% compared to 2021, and we expect diluted EPS to be in the range of $2.90 to $3. Now I'd like to turn the call over to the operator for questions. Norma?
speaker
Operator
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, at this time, if you have a question, please press star 1 on your touch-tone telephone. If your question has been answered or you wish to remove yourself from the queue, please press the pound key. Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster. And again, ladies and gentlemen, that is star 1 to ask your question. Our first question comes from Paul with Citi. Your line is now open.
speaker
Paul
Hey, everyone. This is Brandon Cheatham on for Paul. Thanks for taking our question. I was wondering if you could talk a little bit about, you know, recent supply chain developments. You know, have you seen any changes from recent world events? And, you know, what are you expecting near term on the supply chain front?
speaker
Norma
Yeah, good morning. We really have not seen any material change to the supply chain. We're still experiencing extended lead times and transit times. We're still experiencing quite a bit of pressure on freight. If anything, I think the freight pressure has gotten incrementally a little worse since the last time we were on the call. at least in terms of the impact to our forecast for the year. But overall, no, no material change as of now.
speaker
Paul
Appreciate that. And, you know, can you talk a little bit about the, it sounds like Holstale pulled forward some deliveries, you know, was that helpful for one queue and you think it pulled from maybe the second quarter?
speaker
Norma
Yeah, there was definitely a difference. change in timing of deliveries Q1 versus Q2 compared to the pattern historically. So you will see the Q2 wholesale revenue growth decelerate a little bit, although it will still be strong. We were up about 54% in wholesale in Q1 versus last year. I think for Q2, you should be thinking more around high 30s.
speaker
Paul
Thanks. That's super helpful. And, yeah, one last one for me. You know, can you talk about, you know, price increases for the second half and what are you seeing on the cost side and expectations for the second half on the product? Thanks.
speaker
Norma
Sure. Yeah, we continue to see pressure on our costs. There's some pressure on FOB costs based on what's, meaning factory costs, meaning based on what's going on with both labor and materials. And then, of course, there's also quite a bit of pressure that we continue to see from freight. So The good news is we have, you know, we've been raising prices and for the most part feel very good about customers' acceptance of those prices, particularly when we have newness. We're seeing that the customers are not pushing back on the price increases. You know, if the products are what we would call LY products, last year type products, there may be a little bit more resistance, but anything new we're seeing the customer willing to pay. So, for the most part, we're offsetting those pressures with the price increases. Got it.
speaker
Paul
Thanks very much, and good luck. Thank you.
speaker
Operator
Thank you. Our next question comes from Jay Sol with UBS. Your line is now open.
speaker
Jay Sol
Great. Thank you so much. My question is just on the guidance for the full year. How do you think about adjusting the guidance, given you beat the consensus by 41 cents in Q1, you're raising the midpoint of the guide by about 17 cents, you know, for the full year. Was there something that you're seeing in the environment that makes you think that back after the year won't be as strong as you thought previously? Or is it sort of, you know, this was your plan for Q1 and sort of everything is sort of, you know, a little bit better than Q1, but just, you know, the street had undermodeled it. How do you think about it?
speaker
Norma
Yeah, it's a good question. We definitely were not aligned, or the street was not aligned with how we were looking at Q1. So our internal forecast was about 20 cents ahead of consensus for Q1. So you talked about, I think, a 41-cent beat. About half of that just accounted for the the difference in how the street was looking at it versus our internal forecast. So we did obviously come in, you know, another 20 cents or so ahead of our internal forecast. And as you said, we're raising the full year 17 cents. Keep in mind, you know, part of that increase or beat to our internal forecast was a little bit of pull forward from Q2. So essentially what we've done is taken what we beat into Q1... and rolled that forward and not changed the back nine months of the year.
speaker
Jay Sol
All right, got it. And then maybe, Ed, if I could ask you just another question on the quarter. It seems like there was, you know, not just strong, you know, trend right product, but a lot of great execution like on social media with marketing. Can you just talk about some of the successes that you had in the quarter, which, you know, maybe helped amplify, you know, the growth that you had in the business and, you know, maybe talk about what you expect to see as we go forward into Q2 and the rest of the year?
speaker
Norma
Yeah, look, I feel very good about how the team's executing. And that goes for Steve Madden, it goes for Dolce Vita, it goes for some of our smaller brands like Betsy Johnson. You know, I think for us, it always starts with product, and the team's done a great job of creating trend-right products that are resonating with the consumers. And so I think that's where it starts. But as you point out, we also... an important part of our strategy is to support that great product with effective marketing. And I think that's an area where we've been raising our game over the last few years, particularly in the digital marketing front and all the work that we do, in particular to drive our owned and operated e-commerce businesses. And I think you're seeing the results of that, not only in Steve Madden, but also tremendous success, for instance, in Dolce Vita and Again, a smaller brand, but Betsy Johnson's owned and operated e-commerce is growing rapidly. So feel good about the execution on that front, and we're going to continue to lean into those initiatives.
speaker
Jay Sol
Okay. Thanks so much.
speaker
Operator
Thank you. Our next question comes from Tom Nickett with Wedbush. Your line is open.
speaker
Tom Nickett
Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking my question. I want to ask about the gross margin. You know, you had a pretty strong increase in the wholesale gross margin, despite freight costs being really, really elevated. How were you able to do that when most other brands out there are seeing a lot of gross margin pressure from freight?
speaker
Norma
Yeah, we saw some nice improvement, particularly in the wholesale, really driven by the wholesale footwear business, and it was really... nice to see was it was broad-based. So we were up in the branded business, we were up in the private label business, but we also did benefit from a mix shift because the branded business grew much stronger than the private label business, and that's obviously higher margin, so that definitely contributed to the increase. But look, we've pushed through some pricing increases, and our sell-throughs have been very good, so very limited promotional activity, limited amount of markdown allowances, very limited amount of closeouts, so good full-price selling, and that's obviously the biggest driver of gross margin for us.
speaker
Tom Nickett
All right. Thanks, Ed. And just a quick modeling question. I believe when you reported before, you said that The 1H versus 2H revenue split this year should be similar to what you had in 2019, I think something like a 48-52 split. Should we still think about that being the 1H-2H split this year?
speaker
Norma
No, at this point, because we overachieved by 20 cents or so in Q1, I think that you're going to see – at least the way we're modeling it now, is that it'll be more front-half weighted than 2019. Understood. All right.
speaker
Tom Nickett
Thanks very much, and best of luck the rest of the year. Thank you.
speaker
Operator
Thank you. Our next question comes from Laura Champagne with Loop Capital. Your line is open.
speaker
Laura Champagne
Thanks. So a follow-up on that. what would be the reason that you would see a sequential slowdown in the back half, especially if you're at your toughest comp this next quarter? And I think you just mentioned you might be able to grow wholesale footwear 30% plus on top of that. So what would drive a big slowdown in the back half?
speaker
Norma
Well, I guess there's a couple things I'd say. First of all, our comparisons in the back half are – dramatically tougher than in the first half. So that's number one. But I think also, you know, there is some level of caution that we have on the back half, just given all the macro headwinds or potential macro headwinds. And we have heard from some of our basically all of our big wholesale customers, that they're taking a somewhat cautious approach to the back half overall. I think that they'll be less cautious with us because of how well we're performing and the sell-throughs that we've been driving for them. But certainly, we know that folks are cautious heading into the back half. We know, for instance, in our wholesale business quite a lot about what Q2 is going to look like, and we have a pretty good sense of Q3, but we don't have a lot of visibility in Q4. And we had a blowout Q4 last year, and at this point, you know, we are modeling that to be down to last year.
speaker
Laura Champagne
Understood. Thank you so much.
speaker
Norma
Thanks, Laura.
speaker
Operator
Thank you. Our next question comes from Camilla Lyon with BTIG. Your line is now open.
speaker
spk09
Thanks so much. Good morning, everyone, and great job on Q1 here. You know, kind of following that train of thought and how to think about the cadence of the year and how that unfolds and appreciate the comments on the lower visibility as we get out into the back half of the year, can you help us understand your ability to kind of meet more of the in-season demand that you typically are geared to do? So said differently, you've been pulling forward a lot of the production given the supply chain issues that everyone has been experiencing and that's been working very well to garner more shelf space and more market share. Is this limiting your ability to fulfill in-season orders? So if there is a cautious ordering pattern that unfolds for the back half of the year and demand does not change and continues to be robust, will you have an ability to meet that demand?
speaker
Norma
Yeah, well, look, given the supply chain disruption, we don't have the same ability to chase goods in season that we normally do. I won't say we don't have any ability to do that, and I still think that we have an advantage against our closest competitors in our speed to market and in our ability to work in season. But certainly it's not the same capability that we had previously. when we had shorter lead times prior to the pandemic. So that does create a challenge. Again, in fall in particular, we do a lot out of Mexico, which does help with regard to chasing in season. But part of what you're seeing here is that we do need to get more of the orders up front. And fortunately, we're doing that.
speaker
spk09
And so then... The follow-up to that is, I think last year you talked about switching 50% of your Madden production to Mexico and Brazil. Is there an intent to increase that percentage to both of those countries?
speaker
Norma
There's definitely a long-term goal to continue to move more production out of China and into countries like Brazil and Mexico. You're not going to see us get past that level this year.
speaker
spk09
Okay, got it. And then I apologize if you, Justice, already have had phone issues today. Have you talked about or are you seeing any sort of impact to your Chinese manufacturing facilities from the COVID shutdowns?
speaker
Norma
So far, we have not seen any material impact.
speaker
spk09
Okay, perfect. Good luck and congrats on the great execution. Thanks, Camilla.
speaker
Operator
Thank you. Our next question comes from Marion Sapphire with Vita Tracker. Your line is open.
speaker
Marnie
Hi, this is Marnie. Can you guys hear me?
speaker
Norma
Yes, we can.
speaker
Marnie
Oh, I wasn't sure they actually were calling me. That's so funny. I never really have my name botched like that. Hi, congratulations.
speaker
spk05
Marnie.
speaker
Marnie
So a couple of very quick questions. Could you talk a little bit about Rebooted? I know it's very early, but have you seen good response to the launch, and how are you marketing it? Is it getting out there? Are people learning about it? And then could you also talk a little bit about your private label business? You know, your core business has been so strong. Your products are in prime positions in all of the key department stores. So are you seeing increased interest from other retailers, other brands, people to do private label again, things like that?
speaker
Norma
Sure, yeah. Okay, so the first one was about rebooted, and just for the folks on the call, that's our resale marketplace on Steve Madden. We also have one on Dolce Vita called ReVita. And, yeah, we're off to a good start there. I mean, I think it's exciting. I think that our customers are – responding to our efforts here to do right by the planet and to help folks, you know, to help keep products out of the landfill and extend their life. And, you know, I think it's really our first or it's an important first step towards circularity, which is obviously where the fashion industry needs to move long term if we want to lessen our environmental impact. So I think that, you know, we feel good about it. I think the customers like it. I think it's important to our employees, too. So that's another important factor here. You know, do I think this is going to be a big revenue driver in the near term? No. But it's building. You know, we're getting more products placed up there every week. And I think, you know, we feel good about the fact that we're leading here and want to continue to drive it. You asked about the marketing. I think we've taken a fairly – have we posted about it? Sure. Sent emails about it? Yes. But we haven't marketed it aggressively yet. But I think that given the early success, we will look to market it more meaningfully going forward. And then in terms of private label, yeah, we are looking at a couple additional private label accounts. But I wouldn't say that adding new private label accounts is a really core part of our strategy. If you look at our private label business, the vast majority of the revenue is still done with a couple of big mass merchants, and we're going to continue to focus on driving that business and then be selective about adding other private label accounts where we think it makes sense.
speaker
Marnie
That makes sense. Can I just do one quick follow-up on Rebooted? Do you take ownership of the merchandise industry back from your clients? Do you buy it back? What does that look like? What does that transaction look like? Okay, you don't.
speaker
Norma
No, we do not.
speaker
Marnie
And so when somebody sells something, say I have a Steve Madden shoe that I want to sell, a big flip-flop, I post it through you, how do you vet them so that you know it's safe and secure for the people who are then buying it? Or does somebody host the platform for you?
speaker
Norma
You know, by hosting the platform, I'd have to talk to our team about how they're managing that. I'd have to get back to you on that.
speaker
Marnie
Okay. Thanks so much. The assortment looks outstanding. Best of luck for the summer season.
speaker
Norma
Thank you.
speaker
Operator
Thank you. Our next question comes from Sam Poser with Williams Trading. Your line is open.
speaker
Sam Poser
Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. I've got a few. Ed, you mentioned that, you know, the – the consensus numbers didn't quite match yours in the first quarter. So I'm going to ask for a little help so we make sure we can match yours or at least get close to yours going forward. So first of all, on the prior call, you called out that the DTC growth would be mid to high single digits with double digit e-commerce growth, wholesale to be up low double digits, flat gross margin, and flat SG&A. What does that look like now, and can you give us some idea of, you know, some number we should be looking at, you know, what kind of increase we're looking at, again, in Q2 in total, you know, just to help us out so we can all sort of get aligned to you?
speaker
Norma
Sure. So in terms of the annual revenue growth, by segment. So wholesale, we've taken up our expectations for both wholesale and DTC compared to the numbers that you quoted last time. So I would say wholesale now we're looking more at, let's say, mid to high teens versus 21. And DTC, high singles at the midpoint, maybe getting to 10% at the high end of our guidance. Low Gross margins still looking at flat. And then did you ask about SG&A as well? SG&A, as a percentage of revenue, we were at flat before. Maybe now we're flat to maybe very modest leverage, you know, 10 bps or something at the higher end of the guidance. And then in terms of Q2, I already gave you help on wholesale revenue growth. sort of high 30s. DTC, obviously, very tough comparisons there, you know, going up against the impact of stimulus from a year ago and the big pop that we saw in that business. So in DTC, we'd be happy to get to flat versus 21 for Q2.
speaker
Sam Poser
Gotcha. And then you talked about the timing of orders and the price increases. I think you said once before that your normal is like 40 days on the water. You were out at 70. What does it look like now? And are you having, in China with production, are you having, you know, are there issues? What kind of issues are there with, let's say, factories and then also the component factories? you know, that flow of all the, every material, the materials and all that other stuff was in China to get good. So how does this all look, you know, from sort of the outset of a making of a product through the transportation? So is that, is any part of that getting better or is this lockdown making it worse now?
speaker
Norma
Yeah. So I'll take the transit first. Uh, You asked about 70-day transit times. Yes, that is still what we're experiencing, and that's actually up from more like 30 days on a normalized basis. So, still, you know, more than double the amount of time that it's taking to get us the product. In terms of factory delays, have we had some issues here or there? Yes, but there really haven't been any material issues. in terms of factory delays so far, uh, but it's something we'll obviously have to, to watch carefully going forward. And, and, uh, you know, obviously with the zero COVID policy in China, that there's, there's always a risk that there is some impact there going forward.
speaker
Sam Poser
All right. Well, thanks very much and continue to sell. Thanks.
speaker
Operator
Thank you. Our next question comes from Dana Tassley with, I'll tell the advisory group your line is open.
speaker
Dana Tassley
Good morning, everyone, and congratulations on the great performance. Can you talk about category performance, what you saw in the different categories and the outlook going forward? The magnitude of the price increases, does it differ by category, and what are you looking at going forward in price increases? And international, how did Europe perform? What did you see there? And is there any update on GSP? Thank you.
speaker
Norma
Okay. All right, so the first one, good morning, Dana. So the first one was category performance. I assume you're talking about within footwear.
speaker
Dana Tassley
Exactly.
speaker
Norma
Yeah, so in terms of what's working, you know, if you try to look at it thematically, I really think we're seeing a lot of success with this 90s and Y2K trend, and that really goes across categories. So we're seeing success with platforms and with block heels and with big bottom sneakers and with loafers and all stuff that really fits into this 90s Y2K trend. I think the second question was about the magnitude of price increases and increases You alluded to it does vary depending on the category and also really the distribution of the price, you know, the price points. So private label obviously less than branded, for instance. But, you know, we're still, I think, sticking with that sort of 5% to 12% is the range on our various products. Obviously, Steve Madden being towards the higher end of that. The next one was about international. Overall, international has very strong momentum, really excited about what we're seeing in just about every region outside the U.S., and Europe, of course, has been our shining star, and we continue to have very strong momentum there, and that business should be up over 30% again this year versus 2021. And then, Zeen, do you want to take the last one?
speaker
Steve Madden 's
Sure. Dana, on the GSP, the only update since the last time we spoke is that the Leadership Conference Committee, these are the negotiators that will work on reconciling the House and Senate versions of the Competition and Innovation Bill, was announced on April 7, 2022. And the conference will consist of 26 senators, evenly split, and 81 representatives, with 50 of them Democrats and 31 Republicans. So they'll be assigned to subcommittees to work on science, foreign affairs, energy, commerce, taxation, and tariffs. And we hope that when they come back from their state work, which they're expected to be back this week from the state work, that this is their top priority that's based on leaders from both parties talking about the USICA bill and the American Competes Act. So it's looking positive, but it looks positive before as well, and we haven't seen a lot of movement, but it seems like they're committed this time. Just a reminder, the annual impact that is built into our forecast is just about the same as last year. So over 2021, there's not much of an impact on gross margin, but over 2019, it's still about 50 basis points roughly.
speaker
Dana Tassley
Thank you.
speaker
Operator
Thank you. Our next question comes from Susan Anderson with B. Riley. Your line is open.
speaker
Susan Anderson
Hi. Good morning. Nice job on the quarter. I was wondering if you could maybe just talk about the promotions. Obviously, they must have still been pretty lean. Just curious if anything was layered back on versus those lean levels last year and then how you're thinking about it for the rest of the year.
speaker
Norma
Yeah, so in Q1, you're right. We did have very controlled promotional activity. As we look out, you know, we do see some... more promotional activity out in the market than we saw last year. It's certainly not back to the levels that we saw pre-pandemic, but, you know, I think we all recognized last year it was very low in the market overall, and we have seen an uptick there. So we've built a little bit of that into our forecast. You know, just given the consumer demand for our brands and our products, we don't anticipate having to resort to a lot of promotional activity But we do think it will be a little bit higher than it was in 2021.
speaker
Susan Anderson
Great. And then just on the apparel front, it looks like that was pretty strong in the quarter. I guess now that we're kind of past COVID and we're returning to some more fashionable apparel and everything, maybe if you could just give some color on how you're thinking about that business and maybe where you're thinking about it longer term. Sure.
speaker
Norma
Yeah, you know, we're excited about the opportunity we have in apparel. I think I discussed last time that we expect that business to be up close to 50% this year versus 2021. And also talked about how for fall of this year, we are going just to the Steve Madden label. So, as you know, we've been operating with the co-branded label BB Dakota Steve Madden. And we're going to be going just to Steve Madden. And we've gotten very good consumer response to the brand change and also to the line for fall. And we're very optimistic about that business. We continue to see some nice sell-throughs this spring. Dress is a particularly strong category for us, doing well with mini to maxi lengths there. Our prints are doing very well across a range of silhouettes. We've got some color, a lot of color in the line that's doing very well. So we're just excited about the opportunity there.
speaker
Susan Anderson
Great. That sounds good. Good luck the rest of the year.
speaker
Norma
Thank you.
speaker
Operator
Thank you. And currently I'm showing no further questions in the queue at this time. I'd like to hand the call back to Mr. Ed Rosenfeld for closing comments.
speaker
Norma
Great. Well, thanks so much for joining us, everybody. We look forward to speaking with you on the next call. Have a great day.
speaker
Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation in today's conference. You may now disconnect. Everyone have a wonderful day.
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