Southern Missouri Bancorp, Inc.

good morning everyone thanks for joining to this uh group of santander first half 2021 uh earnings call as uh our normal procedure our group ceo mr jos antonio alvarez will uh start at the presentation with the highlights and the group first half this year performance, followed by our group CFO, José García Cantera, who will address in detail the different aspects of the first half by business areas. Before handing over back to our CEO for the key takeaways and obviously plenty of time for the Q&A session. So, José Antonio, please.

Thank you, Sergio. Thank you to everyone for joining us this morning. Look at the first half of the year, I would say we continue to show the main features of our bank in the sense that we continue to grow. Growth has been one of the features that we kept during a long time. The growth is reflected both in customers, volumes, both deposits, mutual funds and loans. And also we translate this into revenues, into the operating profit that grew 13% year-on-year. So our operating income consistently keeps growing. We deliver in volumes, well diversify across regions and businesses. The performance was supported during this year, particularly in the pandemic, by increased digitalization with a strong growth in digital customers and digital sales. Q1 profit, we translate this Growth in volumes into profitability, Q2 21 profit was 2.1 billion euros, including the single resolution fund contribution of almost 370 million euros. Excluding this quarter-on-quarter growth, growth was 8%. No extraordinary items were recorded this quarter. The first half of the year, we reached a recurrent a attributable profit of $3.6 billion. As you know, we did a chart for restructuring costs in the first Q. So the underlying profit was $4.2 billion, the largest since 2010. The return on tangible equity increased to 12.6%. Compared to the first half of 2020, revenue was higher, efficiency improved, and the cost of credit increased. It dropped notably to 94 basis points. Third, we announced the agreement to acquire Amherst Pierpoint in the U.S. and a proposal to acquire the minority of... We don't own in... The 20% we do not own today. Our capital position remains solid. This core equity tier 1 ratio was 12.11% above our target range, and we continue to generate organically capital Q&Q and risk-weighted asset growth on the accrual for shareholder remuneration inside our range of 40% to 50% payout. Finally, our tangible net asset value per share increased four percent is quarter to around euro for for your spare share in short i will say we achieve our targets we sit our targets in the first half and we remain very focused on building a more resilient inclusive and greener businesses so when We go to the revenue generation in the quarter. As I said, we kept growing the customer base 3%. As you may expect, the digital transactions kept booming in this environment, plus 38%, and digital sales increased by 8 percentage points. As you can see, this is well spread across the board among the different products, mortgages, consumer, cars, deposits, investments, insurance. So digitalization is making a good progress across the board. At the same time, we translate this, as I mentioned before, to our income that kept growing, keep growing, operating income and efficiency. On the back of our efficiency plan, our cost income ratio improves to 45.7%. At the same time, and this is important, we are top three in NPS in seven markets in which we work. I recognize by the market. Going to the P&L, moving to the change rate had first difference with other quarters, has very small impact in the quarter, but still has a strong negative impact year on year, minus 7 percentage points in revenue and 6 percentage points in cost. Looking at the results on constant Euro basis, revenue grew mainly in those related with customers, cost discipline in an environment that inflation is accelerating all across the board. We continue to reduce long-loss provisions compared with the previous quarter and we improve the cost of trade I will describe later in more detail. We didn't record any extraordinary items in Q2. Recall that we recorded the 530 million restructuring costs in Q1. Additionally, in the same period last year, we recorded adjustments, the goodwill adjustments. We delivered first half underlying profit of 4.2 billion. Importantly, and this I want to underline this, all regions and global business are performing very well. All our three regions contributed roughly to 30% of the group profits, with strong profit increases in all of them. Once again, the U.S. performance stands out with a profit of circa 700 euros in Q2 and 1.3 billion in the first half of 2021. Digital Consumer Bank, which contributes to 11% of the group underlying profit, also increased its profit significantly, challenging environment in the first month of the year. Regarding our global businesses, CAB had another excellent quarter, around 500 million net profit in the quarter, after record performance in the previous quarter. Wealth management insurance has gradually recovered in recent quarters and grew at double-digit rates, both in volumes and fees in the first half of this year. This positive performance by region, together with the support of our global business, continues to demonstrate that our geographic and business education is a fundamental pillar of our economy. business model. We see consistent trends across the board. NII and fees increased and reached pre-pandemic levels. I will run you through this in more detail in the following slides. Cost control in the costs of higher inflation and increased expenses are related with higher activity. Loan loss provisions declined 13% with a widespread improvement in the cost of credit In short, a very good quarter reflecting the rebound and activity that was more intense at the end of the quarter, particularly in the month of June. If we go to the NII, Google then an 8% compared with the first half of 2020 and 3% quarter-on-quarter as a result of higher volumes quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year with widespread growth by region and country. Regarding margin management, we saw repricing liabilities in Europe, mainly in UK, Mexico, and Chile, and improving loan spreads in US, UK, and Poland. In addition, there was a positive impact from the TLTRO. Finally, average interest rates continue to have a negative path impact despite the hikes in Brazil plus 200 basis points since June 20, Mexico plus 25% in June 21, and Chile plus 25 basis points in July. These increases will materialize positively in NII in the coming quarters. When it comes to the fee income, this reflects clearly the rebound on activity. In this slide, you have several key... ...and you see the growth compared with the first half of 2020 and quarter-on-quarter. The quarter-on-quarter, I am going to focus more on the quarter-on-quarter, was particularly intense... on the back of the sum normalization. I will not say a full normalization of activity levels, but with this sum normalization, you can see that we are growing strongly in the main business of the bank, being from traditional business like acquiring business cards or the business in private banking or CIV that this quarter grew, decreased versus previous one, but the previous one was kind of extraordinary quarter. We expect as the normalization progress, this will continue in the coming quarters. In cost, as you know, our efficiency improved, 159 basis points year-on-year. That's a good track record. Europe recorded the highest efficiency savings, a percentage point reduction. That is a quantum leap. see significant increase in inflation in all countries particularly in the u.s where inflation had the biggest jump since 2008 in this context group cost rose three percent in real terms excluding inflation costs were 0.4 percent lower after the investments in it in europe because we're 1.5 percent lower making we are progressing to our south wall reducing 1 billion costs in europe spain had a 7% decrease. The U.K. is lagging a little bit behind, but we will accelerate in the second quarter and onwards in the region. Efficiency in the region in Europe stood at 51%. In North America, costs increased 7%, mainly driven by technology expenses and amortizations. In real terms, U.S. increased 3% and Mexico fell 2%. Efficiency in the region stood at 43%. In South America, the increase in cost, 7%, was greatly distorted by the very high inflation in Argentina. In real terms, cost declined 3% in the region, Brazil minus 6%, Chile minus 1%, and Argentina plus 6%. Deficiency in the region stood at 34%. Finally, in digital consumer bank, cost increases due to changes in perimeters. six, the leasing business we bought one year ago in Germany, and some investments on digitalization. So we continue to do the transformation of the ban, and it will have reflect in our cost-income ratio as we progress in our transformation, plus particularly intense in Europe, where we are committed to the deeper transformation of the business. The cost of credit, well, I mentioned the number, 0.94 basis points, 79 basis points in the last six months. This sets our expectations while probably for the whole year we will be running at this level, at around 1% cost of risk for the whole year. The NPL ratio remains basically flat. The long-run reserves are still in 24 billion in the balance sheet, with a non-performing long coverage ratio of 73%. What we have seen, the trends we have seen in the cost of risk, we have seen better behavior than the one embedded in our models for all the individual spaces, being mortgages, being consumer, on the back of lower unemployment than the one estimated in our models, and also a better house prices in our March book that leads to a lower potential cost of risk in this space. In companies, particularly in SMEs, we are still in a prudent mode. While we are seeing a recovery, we need to see how intense is the recovery, and once we assess this, we will be in a position to assess this. So compared with our expectations one year ago, the situation is much better than the one we were embedding in our models. The profitability ratios on the back of these strong results, naturally the return on tangible equity went to 12.6%. The EPS, underlying EPS north of 22 cents per share, and the TNAP grew quarter 4% quarter on quarter. Well, I would say the return on tangible equity and the return on risk weighted assets are higher than in 2019. So those are the main ratios. I'm going to capital. We continue to generate capital organically in the quarter, seven basis points due to profit earnings. We are accruing a 50% payout on underlying profit and this is in the organic capital generation. The regulatory model related impact were 24 basis points in the quarter. Well, basically, the counterparty credit risk, counterparty risk on derivative operations, 11 basis points, and trim on low default exposures, where the impact was 9 basis points. After that, the core equity tier 1 phasing ratio was 12.11%. So we are above our target, above the upper limit of the range, 11-12%. and we enjoy a significant very large management buffer. So additionally, while the group is conducted by EVA, will be published this Friday, we expect to continue to show a consistent performance on this. If you review the previous one, we came always at the top with the capital depletion being one of the lowest among our peers in Europe. So I would say that our capital generation organically continues to support our medium, long-term goals. return tangible equity progressing toward our goal of having a medium term target of 13% to 15%. This should allow us to grow significantly the business, to have a payout in the range of 40% to 50% and to face the potential regulatory impacts that may come down on the road. And finally, let me A little bit on ESG. We made a strong commitment on ESG. On the environmental side, we will become a founding member of the Next Zero Banking Alliance. This requires some specific targets in power generation, oil and gas. And we already published our target for the Next Zero Banking Alliance in power generation. We are working in three different directions in the environmental issues, improving our financial product to support customers, Issuing in our own green bonds that we issued this year already 1 billion green bonds as part of our global sustainable debt plan. Finally, mobilizing green finance. We mobilized this year in the first half of the year. billion in green finance, bringing our total of 42 billion since the beginning of our commitment in 2019. So we are the market leader in the renewal sector, financing the renewal sector, and we continue to lead the new project. its finance league tables on the social side well the santander finance for all helps people to get access to the financial system this is extremely important in the micro credit business and also in the financial education we have as you know microfinance alternatives already launched in brazil mexico uruguay and colombia and will be launched in peru this year as a result Of these, we were recognized as the best bank for sustainable finance in Latin America by Euromoney. In governance, we have clear and robust governance across group of subsidiaries. we ensure ongoing board effectiveness, balanced tenure, and diversity. In addition, we include ESG metrics in our executives board bonus scorecard. And now we'll have... Thank you, José Antonio, and good morning, everyone. I will start with a brief summary of the regions, and then I will elaborate on the main countries.

In Europe, we are accelerating one Santander's transformation, which enables us to progress towards our medium-term targets. We had positive volume growth year-on-year, almost in all markets, following the trends that we've seen since the beginning of the year. Revenue increased 14% year-on-year, cost control was maintained, and efficiency improved. In addition, we had long loan provision reductions in most countries. and a lower cost of risk at 49 basis points. In North America, strong profit growth boosted by cost of credit improvements in the U.S., cost control and revenue increased. Revenues increased 8%, excluding disposals. Return on tangible equity in the region was 15%. The group announced several transactions, which I will explain later. In South America, we are strengthening regional ties in order to continue growing profitably, reported by record new customer increase in recent months. We had a strong rise in loyal customers, up 24%, and in digital customers, up 20%, reflected in double-digit volume growth. Return on tangible equity reached 20%. In the digital consumer bank, we also saw positive performance year on year after the significant pickup in activity in the quarter. So in summary, we have delivered robust performance in all regions in the quarter. Let me now analyze the main countries in more detail. In Spain, As the economic activity started to show signs of recovery, our stock of loans expanded 1% in the quarter, new mortgage lending reached its highest level in the last three years, and consumer lending recovered to pre-pandemic levels. basis, the loan portfolio increased mainly in SMEs and corporates, which lagged after the 2020 boost on eco-loans. Quarter on quarter, underlying profit was heavily affected by the SFR contribution, €116 million in Spain. Excluding this, net operating income was 4% higher, with a positive performance in fee, income and costs. In the first half, profits increased 56% year on year, NII grew 10%, driven by TLTRO and active management of funding costs. Income recovered to pre-pandemic levels on the back of transactional fees, insurance, and mutual funds. We showed record inflows in the first half. We reduced costs by 7%, reaching an efficiency ratio which is well below peers' average. Positive jobs in the period delivered over 16%, growth in pre-provision profit. With regards to provisions, we remain cautious as to the recovery of the key sectors in the Spanish economy, such as tourism. For the second half of the year, we expect the trends to continue with a slight increase in loans and deposit volumes. Revenue should recover to pre-pandemic levels at low single digit rates and in costs we maintain, we expect to maintain the downward trend with a 7% decrease in costs by year-end. In the UK we had a strong increase in total income driven by NII growth of 29% year-on-year. This was the result of management actions to reprice deposits reflected in net interest margin improvement of 26 basis points year-on-year. In addition, volumes grew driven by mortgages and government-backed business loans. Costs continue its downward trend, reflecting progress on our transformation program. which resulted in a strong efficiency improvement of 13 percentage points. Loan loss provision releases of 86 million euros in the quarter reflect the absence of significant charges and an improved economic outlook. In short, another positive quarter with a strong increase in profitability. We expect to maintain a positive Positive trend in AII for the year-end, while costs should drop as the optimization plans are executed. We don't see signs of deterioration in asset quality. Brazil continued to deliver excellent performance in terms of volumes and profitability. We maintained a strong growth in new mortgage lending to individuals, which reached a record high in card sales and significant income growth in GetNet. In auto, we remained the leader in individuals. As a result, loans grew 15%. and customer deposits 11%. Profit was 44% higher year-on-year, and return on tangible equity increased to 22%. Total income rose 9%, backed by positive NII performance. Here, larger volumes offset margin pressure. are rising from lower average interest rates, although they increase in the quarter, and net fee income growth. Higher productivity and expense management enable us to continue to reach record efficiency levels. Loan loss provisions decrease strongly with a positive cost. ...of credit performance, which fell to 3.51%, down 116 basis points year-on-year. Compared to the first quarter, profits up 6%, net interest income and fee income up 7%, offset lower gains on financial... transactions and higher provisions in individuals. So in short, we continue to experience healthy growth with very positive revenue performance, gaining market share in key segments while reducing the cost of credit quarter-on-quarter, leading to efficiency and improving customer traction and loyalty. We expect to see the same trends in the second half. In the U.S., the work conducted over the last few years made us to be uniquely positioned to benefit from improving market conditions. Long growth was impacted by Bluestem and Puerto Rico. ...disposals, excluding perimeter changes. Growth was 1% year-on-year, with auto-origination increasing 29% year-on-year in the first half. Very positive P&L performance. The U.S. was the largest contributor to the group's underlying... both in the second quarter and in the first half, reaching 700 million and 1.3 billion respectively. Net operating income increase on the back of resilient NII, where deposit pricing actions offset lower rates, strong auto leasing, as well as wealth management and cards fee income. Excluding the disposals impact, net operating income increased 23%. Loan loss provisions decreased sharply as the improved macro outlook, customer loan relief, and increased used car prices led to a strong credit performance. Again, the first quarter, profit up due to better performance on leases and the release of loan loss provisions. Excluding the Bluestem disposal impact, profit was up 14%. In line with the group's strategy to accelerate growth in the U.S., We announced two transactions. The proposal to acquire all outstanding shares of Santander Consumer. We already don't own, which is around 20%. and the agreement to acquire Amherst Pierpont securities. These transactions follow our strategy to reduce complexity, increase profitability with minimal additional operational risk, and increase businesses' diversification by expanding our exposure to corporates. Both transactions follow our rigorous financial discipline and goals and strengthen our business model and profitable growth. In the second half, we would expect to maintain our strong performance in net operating income with double-digit growth through deposit pricing, strong wealth management and CAB fee income performance, and continued momentum in auto leases. This is forecasted to have a significant improvement against last year, although we would expect to see a gradual normalization in the second half, after an abnormally low first half as I just mentioned. In Mexico, Multi-channel innovation continues to strengthen our value proposition, which enables us to increase our loyal and digital customer base at double-digit rates. Lending showed strong performance in auto loans and mortgages, gaining market share. However, the total loan portfolio decrease in line with the system, which was still affected by corporate loans normalization. We continued to shift our funding mix towards demand deposits and mutual funds. Profit was slowly down, slightly down year on year. Total income fell, impacted by NII pressure from low rates and volumes, and lower trading gains due to ALCO sales in the second quarter of last year. On the other hand, fee income increased, driven by transactional revenues. Costs fell 2% in real terms. despite higher technology investments and amortizations. Loan loss provisions dropped 21%, leading to a cost of risk below 3%. In addition, and in line with the group's strategy, the tender offered to acquire the outstanding shares of Santander, Mexico, that we don't own. 8.3% is on track to be launched on the third quarter, subject to regulatory approvals. In the second half, we would expect recoveries in volumes, fees growing at high single-digit rates, and a gradual pick-up in NII. Loan loss provisions should decrease against 2020. The digital consumer bank in consumer lending activity trends improved. New lending performed very well in the second quarter after pandemic controls eased in Central Europe, delivering 20%. growth year-on-year. In the quarter, profit headwinds included the SRF, the Single Resolution Board contribution, excluding need, profits would have been up 6%, and higher provisions related to the Swiss franc mortgage portfolio in Poland. The recovery in activity was reflected in NII fee income and cost of risk improvement. In the first half, profit was up 11% higher year-on-year. Cost grew 5%. ...year-on-year due to changes in perimeter. Remember, sixth and team fin and investments in digitalization. On a like-for-like basis, costs were down. For the coming quarters, we expect strong cyclical growth in consumer finance demand, delivering amid single-digit growth. in revenue, flat is cost, and cost of risk that would remain more or less at between 60 to 70 basis points. Let me now review the global businesses started with CIB. As Jose Antonio mentioned, CIB delivered another excellent quarter in activity and results, although obviously the quarter-on-quarter comparison was affected by the very, very strong record high first quarter 21. In the first half, CIB held leading positions in the rankings of structure finance. We were first globally by number of transactions. DCM first in Spain and top three in Mexico and Chile, and ECM, top three in Spain, Mexico, and Poland. We had outstanding first half results backed by overall revenue improvement across businesses, mainly in markets and globally. Transactional banking. We expect that performance for 2021 to continue to be very positive, although probably in a more normalized trend. Wealth management and insurance. Total assets under management increased double-digit year-on-year, both by market ...movement and commercial inflows in private banking and Santander asset management of more than 9 billion, which account for 2% of the total volume managed. In insurance, gross return premiums rose 12% year-on-year, mainly by non-credit In summary, total fee income grew 10% and total contribution to the group's profits was up 9% year-on-year. In the second half, we expect to continue the same strong business dynamics, delivering double-digit growth in fees and profits. In PagoNext, as you know, well, payments is the cornerstone of our strategy to grow and reinforce our customer loyalty. In the first half, revenue increased 23% year-on-year, boosted by the strong jump in fees, 39% higher at constant exchange rates. And we expect revenues to grow strongly in the second half. ...around 50% and reach 1 billion in the medium term. To provide some context behind our growth in PagoNext, let me share background on our three businesses. Merchant solutions. GetNet is already one of the top three acquirers in... in Latin America and we continue to develop our capabilities across our technological hubs in America, Europe and Asia. We recorded a solid performance in the quarter exceeding pre-pandemic levels in active merchants and total payment volumes. GetNet Brazil recorded a strong strong commercial performance, reaching more than 15.5% market share. GetNet in Chile launched its commercial activity, and Mexico progressed in its migration plan to the global platform. GetNet also operates in Argentina. Europe, as our former domestic aquarium business in Spain, evolved to GetNet Europe and will be providing European customers with integrated offerings before the year-end. All in all, we reach a total of around 1.2 million active merchants, up 24% year-on-year, and a total payments volume of close to 50 billion euros in the first half, up 53% year-on-year. The second component is trade, trade solutions, which support SMEs and corporates that operate internationally through a state-of-the-art solution. One trade is already connected to our customers in eight countries after its recent rollout in Mexico and Poland. This solution has over 6,000 active customers, up 50% versus the first quarter of the year. to increase exponentially as we add new services. We continue to invest in project developments and platforms, although volumes and revenues were temporarily impacted by the pandemic. Finally, in consumer solutions, we will be soon rolling out the new global platform in Argentina, Peru, and Colombia. And now let me finish with the corporate center. We can see that results improved 6% compared to the first half of last year, mainly due to the continued positive trend in operating expenses and the decrease in loan loss provisions and other provisions due to the one-off provisions recorded in the first half of last year for certain stakes whose value was affected by the crisis. On the other hand, net interest income was impacted by the increase in the liquidity buffer, and we also had lower gains on financial transactions. As you remember, we recorded positive foreign currency hedging results in 2020. And let me turn it back to José Antonio for his concluding remarks. Thank you very much.

Thank you, José. I'm going to take just one minute to sum up a little bit the results we present to you. I would say our first half results were solid and consistent across geographies and businesses, supported by volume growth, strong revenue, efficiency improvement, better cost of credit, core equity tier one above our target range, and return on tangible equity higher, clearly higher than the cost of equity. Looking forward, we continue our strategy. The transformation, growing and increasing profitability while we help our customers and societies by building a strong customer base, achieving greater customer satisfaction with our services, helping all our customers to become more digitalized. Based on the results obtained year to date and our constructive business view for the second half, I believe we are well on track to outperform our full year 21 goals. We expect to close the year with a cost of credit around 1% and increase our profitability ratios well over 10%. Finally, we remain at your disposal for the questions you may have to us. Thank you.

Thanks, José Antonio, indeed. Now we have plenty of time for the Q&A session, so please, operator, let's proceed with the first question. Yes, we can move to the Q&A session, please.

We seem to have some problem. Bear with us one minute.

high level of confidence in your capital position. But can you give us a little bit more color on how you see capital allocation between the returns and the growth, organic and inorganic? Should we expect this sort of bolt-on acquisition to be a regular feature of Santander going forward? And can you maybe discuss whether you see any technical or regulatory barrier for Santander not looking at buying back the Brazil minorities at some point in the future? Thank you.

Okay, let me elaborate on the capital. I said to you on the presentation, on the main presentation, that looking at the medium term, the way we see our capital now, we, as you know, we established a medium-term target for return on tangible equity in the region of 13% to 15%, starting from this, and given the the evolution we have in the business we think this is achievable, clearly achievable, and I remain very confident that we achieve this. If I look at... How are we going to deploy the capital we generate through the business? I would look for a kind of risk-weighted asset growth. This is a growth story, particularly we're going to grow double-digit in Latin America. Naturally, maybe some current depreciation, but we are aiming for double-digit growth in Latin America. also significant growth in our consumer business in the U.S., while in Europe we see a more kind of flattish evolution of the risk-weighted assets. This will lead us to a kind of growth of risk-weighted assets, let's say in the region of 3% to 5%, probably year on year. And on top of this, we have our payout policy that is to remunerate the shareholders 40% to 50%. And you do the maths, we have some spare capacity on top of this to face potential regulatory headwinds that we're going to have still some to come, but the BASU-3 particularly one is still a bit far from us, has been delayed several times but is still there. And finally, we have some spare capacity to what? Maybe to, as you're suggesting, to do buybacks, to do small acquisitions. Now we are not contemplating any kind of bold acquisition of a large size. So this is, in my mind, the capital evolution going forward. I feel very confident that we're going to to stay at the upper end of our range, 11%, 12%, for the coming quarters and probably coming years. So it's probably too early to say, but probably in the coming years it's pretty much the same.

Thank you very much. Thank you, Adrian. Next question, please.

Our second question is coming from the line of Alvaro Serrano from Morgan

Good morning. Thanks. It's actually two follow-up questions also on capital and the U.S. On capital, I just want to confirm the headwinds here today, I think, at 37 basis points. I think your guidance was 40. Is there anything that's going better or worse there that you can share for the rest of the year. And also, a follow-up to the question I asked in Q1, have you given any further thought of splitting your distribution between dividend and share buybacks in any color you can give, or maybe helping us quantify any share? buybacks that you might be thinking about, and when can you be more precise about that? And the second question, more strategic on the U.S., is you've brought the minorities to SCUSA. You've also brought a FIC program. in the U.S. I just wanted to ask you if you could elaborate on the strategic rationale behind the two. Presuming on the FIT broker, you're after the dollar clearing, but the timing seems on the Odd on both acquisitions, I would argue. So can you talk about why now and what are you trying to build in the U.S.? Is it a universal bank? Consumer bank used to be too big to integrate with the retail. Just some thoughts on your footprint in the U.S.,

Okay, let me elaborate. Surprises in capital, basically, probably, I wouldn't say we have had surprises, probably the only one, probably, Jose went to comment, probably more because of the regulatory issues than the one we were expecting at the beginning of the year, probably in the region of five, ten basis points more.

Yeah, the two things that are coming a bit above our expectations are the new definition of default. Remember that the regulator said that they would expect neutral capital impact from that, and it's going to be very far from being neutral. And also a bit worse in the counterparty credit risk for derivatives that we already accounted for in the second quarter. So probably we would expect... You know, if we said 40 to 45, maybe 10 basis points more this year than we had initially expected.

Okay, the second question you asked me to elaborate about the buyback. Well, as you know, last Friday the ECB, well, communicated that the ban on dividends will be over at the end of September. Clearly, our remuneration policy to shareholders stays in the 40% to 50%. Inside that, naturally, the board by September is going to contemplate different options. Naturally, cash dividends and buyback can be in the table. with the share price trading clearly below tangible net asset value per share is clearly an option that can be quite compelling at some point. The third question was related to U.S., our strategy in the U.S. In the U.S., the way I look at the business in the U.S., we have, independently of the legal structure, we have like three or four businesses there. We have a pretty strong consumer finance building businesses basically in Scusa with the origination capabilities that are quite strong as we've shown through many years already. We have a good and growing deposit base in SVNA that is growing. We were able to reprice substantially and if you see our numbers, our NII has been performing better than our competitors due to our ability to reduce the cost of our deposit base and at the same time cost of the deposit base. We are not taking advantage of this deposit base to fund the consumer business in the full extension. That is an opportunity clearly there. Third, we are developing CAB businesses that last year probably grew more than 20%. This year it keeps growing significantly. And we have this fixed income broker in order to keep growing on the CAB space. And finally, we have the private banking business in Miami that, well, as you know, is a very profitable business and is growing nicely, well, into double digits. So when I look at the business from this point of view, we have very good opportunities to be much more efficient in the U.S., combining Our capabilities in different angles and keep growing particularly in CAB, consumer space, wealth management both onshore and offshore, and developing some specialty business that we have inside SB&A that offer return. In the 16-17% region, like the multifamily business that we plan to expand. So taking all of this and looking from this point of view, Our business, we are keen to grow in the U.S. organically, our business, and we think that we can have returns significantly above our cost of equity with this combination of business going forward.

Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Next question, please.

Next up, we have a question from Andrea Filtri from Mediobanca. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Yes, thank you for taking my questions. I have a just follow-up and one on Spain. On follow-up, therefore, if you get it correctly, you're basically upping the guidance on regulatory headwinds from from basically 40 to 55 basis points this year. And I didn't understand if you also had any expectations on 2022 as the stock has kind of reacted in a flattish way. to a clear beat to results. It seems like the capital is holding the stock back today. On Spain, the cost of risk seems to remain high and certainly not reflecting the same evolution of the other geographies. What is your outlook there? Are you... essentially trying to anticipate uh and bringing forward some future trends or you're being cautious or it's it seems that the visibility remains low and therefore the cost of risk stays high and and still on the cost of risk front what is the actual mechanical timing for you to allocate the overlay provisions of last year and if the macro does not materialize in line with the recertation, so when would you actually release those overlay provisions by? Thank you.

Okay, I will take the cause of these questions and I pass on to you the capital question, Jose. So, Your question, Andrea, in relation with the cost of reason in Spain. Let me share with you my thoughts on this. So, as I said in the presentation, we have on one side the individual families in consumer mortgages where we are seeing substantial better trends than the one that were embedded in our models last year when we were estimating the overlay based on expected losses in the future. That's clearly a positive. On the back of, I mentioned also before, Lower unemployment than the one we were expecting and better house prices than the ones we were anticipating at the time. So this applies to individuals. When it comes to SMEs, the situation is much more uncertain. Economies are rebounding. It's also true that the Spanish economy, given the relative specialization in tourism-related activities, the rebound need to be seen. Still, we are midway to this rebound. And based on the behavior of the economy, I think that it's too early to call. And the situation advise you to be cautious. When do I do think that we're going to have more visibility? probably when we see the economy fully open and we see the tourism industry recovering or going to more normal activity. Probably this is three quarters from now, four quarters from now. It's not for sure going to be next quarter because we are still in the middle of this pandemic. delta stream that is creating some lockdowns here and there. And we prefer at this stage to be cautious. So probably for this year, because of recent Spain, my best estimation is they're going to remain as it is. And I will expect next year to come down significantly. But I will say to you that the environment advises you to be cautious, particularly in the SME space. Cost of risk, the time to release the overlay and to, well, we're going to go into our internal budget. This depends, basically. How comfortable do we feel to assess a material different economic scenario than the one we embed in our models last year? As of today, I will say that the scenario, the current scenario I have in my mind is materially better than the one we assessed one year ago. So this will lead to some significant releases depending on the jurisdictions. When is this going to happen? May happen, and this is a discussion with risk and the research department, may happen the fourth quarter this year, may happen first quarter, second quarter next year, depends on the economic situation and how sound the economic situation is, particularly is related with COVID. As long as we have COVID, some potential lockdowns here and there, probably is not advisable to do that. But at some point, we need to do that. And as of today, this will lead to releases. This is going to happen. I'm not in a position to put in a specific quarter, but let's say next three quarters, four quarters. Probably in this range, you should see some of this. You also saw some in the U.S. and the U.K., yeah, somehow in the quarter. Yeah, now material releases. But we are now, you look at the numbers in the U.S. provisions where close to zero, in U.K. the same, where the situation is clear, is more clear than in other jurisdictions that we are still not so advanced in the recovery. Jose.

Yeah, with regards to the regulatory expectations, yeah, so we initially expected maybe 40 to 45. Maybe now it's 10 basis points higher. Most of the increase from where we are today will happen in the third quarter. load the transactions we have announced and with these regulatory impacts we are very very confident we will be at the upper end of our target range this year in in in 2021 so we don't see a problem a problem there thank you andrea thank you andrea next question please next up we have a question from ignacio ulargui from exxon bmp paribas your line is open

Thanks very much for taking the questions. Good morning all. Yes, I have two questions on the P&L, on operating trends. I mean, one on costs. I mean, when we will start to see sort of like the benefits from the UK, you flag that second half should be better. But I think that costs have been a bit weaker than what we expect, or what I expected at least. in the UK. Also, on the digital consumer bank, on the core side, there has been a bit of an increase in the quarter. I wanted just to get a bit of color of whether it's sort of like the consumer finance business or open bank, what is bringing costs. or start in the digital consumer bank. And the second question is on NII in Brazil. I mean, it has been very strong in the quarter. Next quarter, mechanically, should be strong as well because of the FX appreciation. But, I mean, if you could update a bit on what are you focusing in terms of long growth and what would be the margin impact in 3Q because of the hiking rates. Thank you.

Okay, let me elaborate. You asked specifically, Ignacio, a question about U.K. costs. Well, I said in the presentation that we expect an acceleration of cost reduction in U.K. on the back of transformation we are having in the bank, and we remain committed with the target in Europe for the four main units, Spain, U.K., Poland and Portugal to reach the 1 billion. So UK will accelerate and we think that we will reach our targets in the transformation plan. We already reached the agreement with the unions. So it's a question of time that it will come. On the digital consumer brand, the situation is a bit more complex here because what you have in the numbers is this is a growing business. And as we reach new agreements with OEMs that span our business and we span our activity, particularly in the leasing space, we are more focusing, being more efficient in transaction costs, the costs compared with our revenues, not as much in an absolute number that goes down. You should look Digital consumer run as a growth story. And we, naturally in the first half, we have had the first, I would say, four, five months where we were lagging behind our normal originations. In June, we got very close to the origination we expect in a normal month. And for the second half of the year, uh we think that we're gonna have uh some uh on the back of availability of cars there is no new cars for sale in the market due to scarcity of chips and probably we uh we although i am optimistic that we reach normalized levels this is gonna mean a break on the other side in used cars what we significantly better, particularly our position in Germany in used cars is doing much better. But overall, when you look at the digital consumer bank, the cost side, you should look in relation with the business we underwrite that we expect to grow significantly. And we are growing. We are reaching new agreements with new OEMs that help us to grow the business all across. And the fourth question was about NII in Brazil. Jose mentioned when he was presenting Brazil that we expect the same trends in the second half. You look at Brazil at the, well, you mentioned the interest rates, interest rates in Brazil have a not so significant impact. So, you know, some impact, positive impact on the liability side, not as big as in other jurisdictions due to the fact that the reserve, the mandatory reserve requirement limited the impact. And the loan book margin has remained, spread has remained relatively flat, yeah? So in the last, I don't know, couple of quarters, yeah? So I do expect to keep growing on the back of long growth and on the back of market share gains. We keep gaining market share in the country so we are growing faster than our competitors and I do expect to keep growing so I don't expect a big deal compared with the current trends in NII in Brazil.

Thanks Nacho. Next question please.

Our next question is coming from The line is open.

Go ahead. Hi there. Good morning. I've got three questions and a clarification, please. The first one is on Pago Next. You mentioned a €1 billion revenue target over the medium term. Can you give us a bit more color on what you mean by medium term and maybe also when you consider the business to be breaking? even in terms of profits. The second question will be on legal issues. What is your scenario for the Polish FX mortgages now? You've taken another provision in the quarter. Where do you see the end game? And maybe also you can comment on whether there's any impact on the business in Germany from the BGH ruling on deposit fees, or whether you expect that to have any read across for other geographies at some point. And the clarification is just on the macro provisions. Could you give us an update as to where they are right now after the releases in the U.K. and U.S.? Thanks.

I think the third question in relation with Germany. What's your comment? Sorry?

There was a ruling on reimbursing customers. I was just wondering whether Santander is impacted by that or whether you expect that this might spill over to other geographies where lawyers might start to launch some cases on deposit fees.

Okay, good. Thank you. So, Pagonex, more color. Well, this is a, we said in the presentation that we expect to grow revenues 50% in the second half of this year compared with the first half. Remember that we acquired wildcard assets and those assets, well, we have in our P&L the cost, the cost of running wildcard is, I think, 60 million or something like that in the cost that we have and revenue-wise we started just one month ago. That's the reason why we expect to grow very rapidly our revenue base in the coming quarters without changing significantly the cost base. When the break-even is going to be, you say, $1 billion medium-term. Medium-term, normally, if we double revenues, if we increase revenues 50% in the second half, we should reach in the next half. Two or three years, a volume of revenues in line with the number we are mentioning. And the break-even, well, I do have a... I will say the acquiring business is going to be very quickly. The trade... Very quickly, well, I do expect probably no more than one year, one year and a half. So in Latin America, the business is already more than break-even. In Europe, we need to deploy our network in countries like UK and Poland that is going to take for a while and significant investments probably takes longer than this. In trade, well, we are developing also the network, but this is a pretty straightforward business. Relatively, it's not, I don't have a specific time frame in mind, but it's not a very long period of time. So probably I can elaborate more on this specifically with specific details about timings and plans that we have in relation with this business. Swiss France in Poland, we are expecting the Supreme Court ruling by September.

Second of September.

Second of September. Our provisioning now is around 15% of the portfolio.

15% of the 2 billion portfolio.

Of the 2 billion portfolio. Well, highly uncertain the outcome of the ruling and we will see. But in any case, taking into account that we own 70% of the bank, we don't expect a material impact for the group out of this issue. The German ruling on deposits, we're not charging deposits in Germany. You say, oh, this goes to other geographies. We are charging for deposits only institutional money and non-operational deposits of very large corporates. So it's not... significant impact to us unless this affect the professional market in which case well it will go one side and another yeah so so we have the two sides there and I to be honest with you I don't know the net of the two sides you know no I don't but exactly there are two sides to this you are laughing so probably you know okay

There was a final question on the overlay. We have not used the overlay, but in Spain and a bit in Mexico. In all other countries, the overlay is unused.

Thank you, Brita. Next question, please. Okay, thank you.

Next up, we have a question from Carlos Peixoto from CaixaBank. Your line is open.

Hi, good morning. Thank you for the... My questions. So I would perhaps start a bit or pick up a bit on the questions regarding the evolution of cost of risk in the UK and in the US as well. So we witness here this right-back switch, I believe, has to do with adjustments on the... macro inputs on the provisioning model. I was wondering, going forward, what type of underlying cost of risk should we expect on these two business lines? And also on the NII front in the UK, if you could share some guidance on what to expect throughout the year and possibly for next year. Thank you very much.

Okay, underlying cost of risk, UK, US. Traditionally, in UK, where the majority of the business is mortgage business, is 90% of the volume, or somehow that. Yeah, so the cost of risk should be in the region. You look Bauer and the cost of This should be in the region of 10, 15 basis points, has been the number that we have had for years. So very low cost of risk. In the U.S. it's quite different. On the back of the Supreme Business, we ran out of SCUSA. Assuming that the mix remains the same, you should expect a cost of risk in... The supreme business was more in the region of 6% or something like that. It was more with some volatility. Remember that this business has seasonality. Look at the cost of risk in one year. If you look quarter on quarter, you have significant seasonality. You look backwards, you have this. But 6% is the cost of risk in the consumer business. And the other is... The remaining is fairly low, probably maybe in the 20 to 30 basis points, the business that is not consumer. So it depends largely on the mix. And NIA guidance in UK was the other question. Jose already elaborated on this. So what you are seeing now is the result of repricing liabilities. Well, probably almost all has been done there. And the increasing spread in mortgages. Well, as you know, last year and the first half of this year has been fairly good. You know, the mortgage market in the UK is very dynamic. The last couple of weeks we've seen more competition in the market, but we remain fairly constructive on the back of higher volumes and relatively stable mortgage spreads that comes and goes. But we don't expect a big deal there.

If I may, as I mentioned, first half First half against first half of last year, net interest margin is up 26 basis points. So we would expect to see a similar year-on-year figure for the full year, maybe 20 to 25 basis points. And we have a sensitivity of around 17, 18 million pounds to the basis point. And that is what explains our expectations for double-digit growth in NII in the UK this year.

Thank you, Carlos. Next question, please.

Next up, we have Benjamin Toms from RBC.

Please proceed. Good morning. Thank you for taking my question. Just one for me, please. Santander have been involved in a branch trial in the UK where a number of banks have come together to form a bank hub in one branch. Do you see this as a strategy that could get rolled out across rural areas in the UK? It seems like quite a good idea. Thank you.

Okay, the branch model is largely idiosyncratic. So it depends on the different countries. The model in the UK where, as you know, we have a, the IFAs play a very big role in the mortgage market. It's a model that is, I would say, is different from other countries, particularly in our world, where we are, in other countries, more kind of, the branch is kind of a supermarket, while in UK is more specialized in specific segments in which we work, particularly on the savings space and mortgage space. And we have the, the regional center for corporates. So it's a business that is a model that is branches on one side for the retail specializing savings and mortgages, and on the other side, the regional center for corporates. This is a model that in our jurisdiction is probably quite unique, yeah? So we tend to have more, the branches tend to be higher higher, broader set of products in the mortgages, in the branches, than the ones we have in the UK, given our relative specialisation in the UK. We think that the branch distribution, the physical distribution in the UK, It's about to be right now with the current presence and we are investing a lot in improving our digital distribution in all the subset on all the products in which we operate in the market, particularly in those who are more related with income, like insurance and wealth management and these type of products that we are investing to improve our offer.

Thanks, Benjamin. Next question. Next up we have. Next question, please.

Friends. Hello.

Next question, please.

The second half will remain in brotherhood impact, and any other potential drivers in 2022-2023 will be posted with...

Sorry, we couldn't hear your question. Could you repeat your question, please? Because we had some technical problems. Yes, I can. Now we can. Sure. Sorry, go ahead, please.

if you specify how they are coming directly impacting capital for the second half of 2022, 2023, and what level of fully building capital ratio would be uncomfortable for you as leaders of the right while the pandemic has not fully recovered. So I know that the format ...11.5% and they're comfortable in those levels, but while they still have concerns on the economic recovery, what would be the capital level where you would be taking action? So is it another percentage of the floor, or you would be still seeing... Well, I think that on those levels, it's a little lower.

Oh, well, we clearly stated our capital target at the range 11 to 12, and we stayed in this target. So if we fall below 11%, we are not inside our target, and we try to come back to our target as soon as we can. So that's simple. Well, I will focus much more on the likelihood of destroying capital at Santander. So when you look at the pre-provision profit, well, this is well established in the stress test. The likelihood of destroying a significant amount of capital at Santander is much lower than in some of our competitors. That's the reason why in the stress test we always tend to come at the top. with the less capital depletion than our peers this make us comfortable with our range so when we define our range we took into account the business mix that we have our pre-provision profit uh as a the first line of defense that may uh that allow us to to to to face the potential shocks that may come from the business as the ones that came last year in the middle of the pandemic. Well, we feel comfortable with this. The range is the result of our assessment where we feel comfortable, 11 to 12, where we don't feel uncomfortable is below that range.

I would add to that that, again, we have a management buffer in the region of 200 basis points. So we're not only, you know, not only we generate a lot of capital, but we are very comfortably above the minimum capital requirements. And obviously the regulators feel very, very comfortable with our 11% to 12% range. I have already... got into details of what we expect for the second half or for the coming years. I mean, I think it's very early. The ECB, as you know, will let us know in September, October, what their inspection and model exercises are for the coming years. And we will update you when we have a bit more detail.

Thank you, Carlos. Next question.

In relation with the cost evolution in both in Portugal and Poland, for sure we're going to have the acceleration of cost reduction in Portugal. In Poland, we have mixed trends. We are doing a large transformation plan, but the salaries in Poland, as you know, are growing at the region of 6%, 7%, so it's more than... Difficult to reduce in nominal terms, although we expect to improve our cost income in the country. Nominal reductions in Portugal, for sure, acceleration there. In Poland, largely depends on the situation in the country where the salaries are growing. We're going to continue with the transformation plan, but the efforts have been upset by the increase in salaries in the country. And second, Brazil, because of risk, we are running 360 or something like that. 3.5. Well, in the coming quarters, we don't expect a material deviation from this other than the ones that may come from the mix. So on a like-for-like basis, I don't expect a big deal. It's true that we are growing faster. Now in retail, and we are growing in corporates and CAB, this continue may go up, but this will be good news, I would say, in the sense that the retail business is highly profitable at this stage in Brazil. But depends on the mix, yeah? You ask me, with the current mix, I don't expect big deals other than 10, 20 basis points up and down in Brazil. In the current scenario where the country is going to grow this year based on IMF yesterday 5% and next year 2% or 3% on the back of this, I don't expect a big deal there. And probably they continue to increase rates.

Okay, thank you. Very clear. Thank you, Mario. We have time for one final question, please.

In this case, our last question is coming from Francisco Riquel from Alantra. Please proceed.

Yes, thank you. Very briefly, NII in Spain, a bit weaker than I was expecting, down quarter on quarter. So I wonder if you may comment on the trends, and I feel that the mid-single-digit growth guidance for the year may look challenging. You can update also on the guidance in NII in Spain. And then second question on Brazil. You can comment on the changes in management and any potential implications that we should expect. Thank you.

Okay. In Spain, NII, we guide you to 35% around this. So probably we are, well, probably the negative comes from lower repricing rates in mortgages. This is the only thing that comes to my mind. The rest remains basically in line with our expectations. Probably this effect may change 1% more or less, but not a material change there on the trends. We are seeing bigger activity in mortgages that tend to be lower yields. and relatively low activity on the SME and corporate space and tend to have higher yields. Other than that, I don't see any significant changes there, yeah. In Brazil, relation with the change of management, well, we did a succession plan. I will take business as usual. Sergio will become the non-executive chairman in January and two members of the... the COMEX, the executive committee in Brazil become, in the case of Mario Leal, become the CEO of Brazil, and in the case of Carlos Rey, he's going to head the Latin American region. Well, I would say no. It's business as usual, I would say. Nothing specific in relation with the strategy and all these things. Our plan is to keep growing in Brazil. As you know, the the subsidiary has had an outstanding performance and also the region is having an outstanding performance. Chile is having a great year and we are growing nicely in other small franchises like Uruguay, Peru, Colombia and in the region. So we plan to keep growing in the region to expand some regional business across, like the consumer finance, the ones in Pagonex acquiring and the others, super digital in consumer in the area of Pagonex, and Carlos is going to have this mandate, and Mario Leao is going to keep the mandate of keep growing in Brazil, and gaining market share as we've been doing with outstanding returns north of 20% that probably we are now among the largest banking in Brazil, the most profitable one, and this is naturally we want this to continue into the future.

Okay, thanks, Antonio, Jose. I'm afraid we need to leave it here. Thanks, everyone, for joining today. Apologies for the technical difficulties. Obviously, the IR team is at your disposal for any follow-up. Thank you.