2/15/2022

speaker
Operator

Thank you for standing by. Welcome to SunPower Corporation's fourth quarter 2022 earnings results conference call. At this time, all participants are in listen-only mode. After the speaker's presentation, there will be a question and answer session. To ask a question during the session, you'll need to press star 1-1 on your telephone. To remove yourself from the queue, simply press star 1-1 again. As a reminder, today's program is being recorded. And now I'd like to introduce your host for today's program,

speaker
spk03

Mike Weinstein, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir. Good afternoon.

speaker
Mike Weinstein

I would like to welcome everyone to our fourth quarter 2022 earnings conference call. On the call today, we will begin with comments from Peter Farisi, CEO of SunPower. We'll provide an update with fourth quarter announcements and business highlights, followed by commentary on our 2022 accomplishments and our expectations for 2023. including specifics on our customer financing and new homes operations. Following Peter's comments, Guthrie Dundas, SunPower's interim CFO, will then review our financial results and guidance for 2023. As a reminder, a replay of the call will be available later today on the investor relations page of our website. During today's call, we will make forward-looking statements that are subject to various risks and uncertainties that are described in the Safe Harbor slide of today's presentation, today's press release, and our 2022 Form 10-K and quarterly reports on Form 10-Q. Please see these documents for additional information regarding those factors that may affect these forward-looking statements. Also, we will reference certain non-GAAP metrics during today's call. Please refer to the appendix of our presentation as well as today's earnings press release for the appropriate gap to non-gap reconciliations. Finally, to enhance this call, we've also posted a set of PowerPoint slides, which we'll reference during the call, on the events and presentations page of our investor relations website. In this same location, we have posted a supplemental data sheet detailing additional historical metrics. With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Peter Farisky, CEO of SunPower. Peter?

speaker
Peter Farisi

Thanks, Mike, and good afternoon, everyone. At our analyst day last March, we rolled out a new long-term strategy focused on residential solar with five strategic pillars and a set of financial goals for 2025. 2022 was an important and highly successful first step on that journey. I'm happy to share the progress we've made and our plans to execute on that vision going forward. In the fourth quarter, we continue to break records for customer growth, finishing the full year above the high end of our 2022 guidance. We reported 36 million of adjusted EBITDA this quarter, a 39% increase versus Q4 of 2021, to finish the year at 95 million. Business unit cash generation was a positive 41 million in the quarter, leaving us with 377 million cash on hand heading into 2023. To put this in perspective, SunPower's net debt at year end was at the lowest level since we began issuing convertible debt after our IPO over 15 years ago. Our strong performance is due to the dedication of thousands of SunPower employees and hundreds of SunPower dealers. The SunPower team overcame unprecedented supply chain and inflationary challenges to deliver results for our customers and our shareholders. I want to acknowledge and thank everyone for their hard work and persistence last year. Looking ahead to 2023, I'm excited to share with you our plans to accelerate our investment in product, digital, and financial platforms to keep SunPower's momentum building. These investments will ensure that we have the right tools in place to capture market share for many years to come. We are excited to enter this year with plans to build upon our best in class customer experience to create the fastest growing residential solar company in the world. Please turn to slide number four. I'm pleased to report that customer demand continues to be strong and that we added 23,700 new customers in Q4. This is a 39% increase year-over-year that now includes the demand from Blue Raven Solar in both comparative periods. Revenue also grew at 42% year-over-year as price increases continue to offset the higher impact of product and installation costs. We continue to see strength across our sales channels with 109% year-over-year customer growth from the SunPower Direct channel. Our backlog also ended the year strong with 19,000 retrofit customers and another 34,000 customers in the new homes channel. Adjusted EBITDA per customer grew to 2,300 before platform investment, allowing us to finish the full year at 2,100, a result that's well on track to achieve our target goal for 3,000 to 4,000 by 2025. Sunvolt energy storage system sales continued at a steady pace with a 17% bookings and tax rate in the SunPower direct channel unchanged versus Q3. We also continue to be growing demand for customer lease products, which increased 55% year over year in the quarter. Further growth for leasing is expected in 2023 and beyond because of the new tax incentives under the Inflation Reduction Act. SunPower Financial's low-risk origination model remains customer-centric and agnostic towards lease or loan financing. We believe we are well-prepared to serve ramping lease demand. Please turn to slide number five. In 2022, we saw steady and exceptional progress in our top line growth, exceeding the top end of our original 2022 guidance, with 48% growth in new customers over the full year, including our highly successful late 2021 acquisition of Blue Raven Solar. Looking forward, we are investing heavily in the people, products, and systems that will enable SunPower to continue to acquire market share in the years ahead. The bottom line is, despite higher interest rates and changing state incentive policies, the value of residential solar continues to grow. This value will be buoyed by another strong decade of federal incentives under the Inflation Reduction Act and the likelihood of rising utility bills. Please turn to slide number six. We finished 2022 with $95 million of adjusted EBITDA, percent improvement year-over-year, with steadily improving levels of EBITDA per customer throughout the year. We expect to see continued year-over-year improvement in 2023 as well, driven by higher pricing power, improved attachment rates for SunPower Financial and SunVolt Storage, and a continuous effort to reduce customer acquisition costs. Please turn to slide number seven. Next, I'd like to share some of the important progress we made in 2022 as we move forward with the five pillars of our long-term strategy. For customer experience, SunPower remained the number one ranked home solar installer last year, and we continue to make meaningful progress, raising our net promoter score by 29% in 2022. For products, we expanded and extended our contract with Maxxion, for premium high-efficiency solar modules through 2025. We have also secured additional high-quality supplies for the mainstream market, including Hanwha Q cells from their Dalton, Georgia facility. We've also added multiple SunVault storage sizing options, including whole home backup, and we have begun work on SunVault version 2.0. All of our products meet the well-known SunPower quality and reliability standards, and carry the industry-leading SunPower Complete Confidence Warranty to serve our residential customers across the U.S. For growth, we launched the Dealer Accelerator Program to partner with our best dealers to expand into new territories and sell additional products. Our network expanded 28% in 2022 to more than 850 dealerships across the entire U.S. We launched an important collaboration with General Motors to be their exclusive supplier of solar systems in the coming years, and we are also their preferred EV charger installation partner. Additionally, we announced Home Solar with IKEA and an exclusive agreement with Toll Brothers and California Markets, as well as a national contract extension with KB Home. For digital, we continue to improve the customer experience, along with launching a new real-time data visualization tool for dealers, and the initial build of our virtual power plan and demand response software that will ultimately allow our systems to communicate with interconnected utilities. And finally, SunPower Financial finished 2022 with lease and loan net bookings increasing 81% year over year, with lease contract bookings ramping up significantly in the second half of the year. We finished 2022 with a 39% financial bookings and tax rate, and we are on track to meet our long-term target to achieve a 65% to 75% tax rate by 2025. Please turn to slide number 8. Conventional electric utility rates have continued to rise sharply, over 11% year-over-year in November, despite the moderating cost of key fuels, such as natural gas. Nine states continue to see increases greater than 20% year over year. As we've noted, these steep rises continue to elevate the value proposition of residential solar as one of the most powerful ways to stabilize home power bills. Although fuel prices have declined in recent months, the Edison Electric Institute is projecting a 20% increase in electric utility capital investment from 2022 to 2024 over the previous three years. As these investments are recovered through electric bills, the value of customer-financed rooftop solar is likely to continue rising. Please turn to slide number nine. As most of you know, California regulators are preparing to implement new net energy metering rules on April 15th. Until then, customers in the state are eligible to lock into the current NEM 2.0 rules as long as they submit an interconnection application before that date. We are currently investing heavily in our California sales and marketing effort, as well as the interconnection application process, to ensure that as many customers as possible take advantage of the current rules before the change. I'm pleased to report that we are seeing a significant response in new bookings and backlog as a result of these efforts. Once the new NEM 3.0 rules take effect, we expect the value of battery storage systems to increase materially in California as customers may use their solar generation across more hours of the day by storing power in their batteries. Our own analysis suggests that the nominal payback period for a solar-only system under NEM 3.0 is 8 to 10 years, but this can be improved to 7 to 9 years when a storage system is added. We believe SunPower is well-positioned to deliver SunVault storage systems to customers with inventory levels entering 2023 that we believe are sufficient to meet stronger demand for the year. Please turn to slide number 10. As you may recall from our second quarter presentation, we conveyed an expected sales slowdown for the new home segment due to a slower economic environment affecting the broader home building industry. Despite this, the new home segment reported an impressive Q4, 13% year-over-year growth rate for customers recognized, boosted by our nascent but fast-growing multifamily and national sales efforts beyond California. Our 2023 customer growth and adjusted EBITDA guidance assumes a 25% decline in overall new home sales versus last year, which includes the benefits of rapidly scaling non-California and multifamily sales. Overall, this is the equivalent to the assumption of a 500 basis point reduction in year-over-year customer growth for SunPower as a whole. Longer term, there's a widening need of nearly 6 million new homes to satisfy the growing demand for housing in the U.S. We continue to view the new home segment as an important long-term strategic asset where we intend to continue building on our already strong leadership position. Please turn to slide number 11. The Inflation Reduction Act Congress passed in 2022 includes a 10-year extension of the 30% tax credit for solar, in addition to a brand new 30% tax credit for standalone battery storage. It also includes several important bonus credits that apply to systems leased to customers. SunPower stands well-positioned to monetize these benefits through a combination of stronger sales, increased pricing power, and qualification for the bonus credit. Number one, to increase the likelihood that we qualify for the 10% domestic content bonus credit, we are adding more domestically sourced PV modules to our supplies for 23, and we expect to bring on additional domestic suppliers in 2024 and beyond. Number two, for the 10% to 20% low-income bonus credit, SunPower is building new tools for dealers, activating SunPower Direct to sell lease, and reconfiguring marketing operations to capture more qualifying customers. And finally, number three, for energy community credit, we're mapping out these communities so that this bonus can be incorporated into our sales tools and made available to our customers. Please turn to slide number 12. As previously noted, our low-risk financing model is based on the off-balance sheet origination of loans and leases for customers. With similar origination fees for either loan or lease, we are agnostic and strive to act in the customer's best interest. As you can see here, our lease net bookings continued to grow robustly in the fourth quarter at a rate of 55%. We expect this trend to continue into 2023 as leases are projected to gain popularity in the coming years due to the bonus tax incentives under the IRA. To be clear, we welcome this development, and we are well prepared to competitively execute on it. Our all-in cost of capital for leasing remains below 6.5%, including tax equity, with the added advantage of lower interest rate sensitivity across the full capital stack. We believe that this is at least equal to or better than our peers. We have ample facilities in place to finance a growing lease pool through 2023. Loan bookings also grew 35% in Q4 and were approximately 78% of the total net bookings in the quarter. We continue to benefit from more than $2 billion of low-cost, long-term private loan purchase facilities which are now 300 to 400 basis points less expensive than the cost of capital provided through asset-backed securities market. The ABS market has been improving of late with spreads tightening 80 to 100 bps in Q1, and we remain well-positioned to tap this important source of capital in the future. Please turn to slide 13. Before I turn it over to Guthrie for the financials, I want to share some of the most important product investment efforts we are undertaking in 2023. As I mentioned earlier, we are very pleased to have recently extended and expanded our supply agreement for high-efficiency premium solar modules from Maxion through 2025. We've also begun taking steps to build up a supply of high-quality modules suitable for the mainstream market, including Hanwha Q cells from their factory in Dalton, Georgia, we hope to be positioned to qualify for the ira bonus tax credit applicable to lease systems with domestic content number two we've already begun development work at general motors on a bi-directional vehicle to home ev charging system with a limited release expected in q4 of 2023 as mentioned earlier gm has made some power its exclusive partner for solar and storage projects and we're incredibly excited to be part of this important collaboration. And finally, as I mentioned earlier, we've begun engineering and design work on the second version of our Sunvolt energy storage system. This V2 will include a complete platform upgrade with multiple new features, including integration with EV chargers and generators, control over multiple load configurations, next-generation monitoring, and an easier, faster installation process. We are targeting a launch for the second half of 2024. I'll now turn it over to Guthrie for more details on our Q4 results. Guthrie.

speaker
Mike

Thank you, Peter. Please turn to slide 15. As Peter mentioned earlier, strong 2022 customer demand and steadily increasing EBITDA per customer support achievement of our long-term target model for increasing market share and EBITDA per customer through 2025. For the fourth quarter, we are reporting $36 million of adjusted EBITDA and $492 million of non-GAAP revenue, an increase of 42% year-over-year. We added 23,700 new customers in Q4, a 39% increase year-over-year that now includes Blue Raven Solar in both periods. Full-year 2022 customer growth was 48%. Adjusted non-GAAP growth margins continue to remain above 20% as the cost of equipment, labor, and shipping is passed along in pricing to customers. Adjusted EBITDA per customer before platform investment increased to $2,300 for the quarter and $2,100 for the full year as we benefit from a combination of higher pricing, growing origination fee volumes at SunPower Financial, and the operational leverage gained from increasing sales. As we highlighted at the Analyst Day last year, platform investment of $18 million for the quarter and $76 million for the full year is primarily product, digital, and corporate OPEX. Our balance sheet is now the healthiest it's been in years, exiting 2022 with $377 million of cash on hand and only $48 million of net recourse debt. In January, we sold our last remaining half million shares of Enphase Equity for approximately $120 million and paid down our entire $425 million convertible debt using $100 million from our term loan we arranged last year and cash on hand. We begin 2023 with ample liquidity to fund ongoing operations and continue investing in the business, including a $200 million revolver. We continue to value our ownership of lease renewal net retained value in SunStrong using a 6% discount rate. With growth in the portfolio, we now estimate the value of our stake at about $260 million. Please turn to slide 16. As Peter mentioned earlier, we are initiating 2023 guidance today. We are guiding to $125 to $155 million of adjusted EBITDA driven by 90,000 to 110,000 incremental customers with adjusted EBITDA per customer before platform investment of $2,450 to $2,900. Platform investment continues to be primarily comprised of product, digital, and corporate operating expense that are preparing the company for future growth and the expansion of EBITDA per customer. On a per customer basis, platform investment is projected to peak in 2023 as we reinvest a portion of the significantly higher than expected proceeds from the sale of Enphase shares over the past year. We are making good progress towards achieving our analyst day target model, which includes growing our market share versus peers, while also growing adjusted EBITDA per customer to a range of $3,000 to $4,000. While we expect platform investment continue increasing in future years, we expect this to grow below the rate of customer growth so the rate per customer declines over time. As Peter noted earlier, our 2023 EBITDA guidance includes several important assumptions. These include, one, platform investment that is approximately $55 million above the analyst aid target model, two, The impact of an approximate 500 basis point reduction to SunPower's overall customer growth from new homes. Three, the impact of an additional approximate 500 basis point reduction in year-over-year SunPower customer growth from the transition to NEM 3.0 in California, which includes the impact of installations resulting from NEM 2.0 orders in Q1. And four, the continued growth for SunPower financial and battery storage attach rates. Looking beyond 2023, we see several very positive trends that are expected to help propel our business. These include, one, a financial recovery for the new home segment that nevertheless assumes continued pressure on the homebuilder industry from higher mortgage rates. Two, the IRA significantly improving solar value, potentially accelerating demand and EBITDA per customer. Three, continued growth for SunPower Financial and battery storage and tax rates. Four, platform investments that improve the customer experience, help reduce customer acquisition costs, and capture a growing market share. We enter 2023 executing our strategy and on track towards achievement of our long-term target model goals. With a strong balance sheet and a philosophy of continuous improvement, we are building a platform of assets that will continue to enhance our world-class number one ranked total customer experience. With that, operator, I would like to turn the call over for questions.

speaker
Operator

Certainly. Ladies and gentlemen, if you have a question at this time, please press star 11 on your telephone. As a reminder, you can remove yourself from the queue by pressing star 11 again. We'd like to ask that you limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. You may get back in the queue as time allows. Our first question comes from the line of Sean Morgan from Evercore ISI. Your question, please.

speaker
spk06

Yeah, thanks, Peter and team. So one of the things that I've been worrying about recently is how domestic content is going to work in light of the fact that we're starting from a heavily, heavily offshore source supply base of materials for resi. And so also, is it going to be a situation where the domestic content adder for the ITC is based on the full value of the system or do you think the government's gonna allow like certain components of a system to qualify and you could basically do piecemeal credits for like say items where maybe in some cases there are no vendors that are really US based so that you could you know, get credit for domestic content where available?

speaker
Peter Farisi

Yeah. Hey, Sean. We're super excited about the benefits of the IRA and, in particular, the domestic content benefit you talked about. And the partnership we have with Hanwha for QCELs, we're cautiously optimistic that those panels will be examples of the kinds of products that would benefit from the IRAs. It's our, you know, the final guidance hasn't come out yet on this, but it's our expectation that it'll be the total system costs of the equipment. And it will have to be above a certain threshold. I think the rumors I've heard are 40% domestic content for the total system hardware costs. And then if you qualify, it provides the benefit across the entire system cost, including installation and labor. So that's the current way we're modeling it and thinking about it, but we're waiting for the final guidance. And once we achieve that final guidance, we'll act accordingly. I think the interesting thing to me is that you're going to see a growth in U.S. clean energy jobs out of this. There's no question about it. We have had a number of high-quality panel manufacturers interested in either expanding their U.S. operations or adding new U.S. operations. I think it's stay tuned here. I think there'll be more opportunities for us to grow our domestic content, particularly on PV.

speaker
spk06

Okay. I mean, yeah, Hanwha Q cells is maybe a good example, or I'm guessing probably maybe not SunVault, but the Hanwha, if I'm understanding their process correctly, a lot of the materials are, their supply chain starts kind of abroad and then the assembly is, and correct me if I'm wrong, is kind of completed in Dalton, Georgia. So I guess maybe with some creative transfer pricing, they could come up with a system where they're attributing most of the cost to the labor assembly here in the U.S. and then it would qualify. But how do you think the government's going to sort of treat material costs relative to, say, I guess a finished product?

speaker
Peter Farisi

Yeah, I think you're thinking, Sean, is in line with our belief as to how this will play out. I think If you want to create jobs here in the U.S., there's probably some process that maybe evolves over time. But certainly, given the way the supply chains are positioned today, it would make sense, in my opinion and our opinion, to qualify, I'll call it value-added assembly, which is what TANWA is doing in Dalton, Georgia. And I certainly think that that makes sense. That certainly is U.S. jobs, and they have an opportunity with the big announcement they made recently about their expansion to grow U.S. jobs. It's our expectation that those types of products have a good opportunity to qualify under the IRA.

speaker
Operator

Great.

speaker
spk06

Thanks, Peter.

speaker
Operator

Thank you. One moment for our next question. And our next question comes from the line of Philip Shen from Roth. Your question, please.

speaker
Philip Shen

Hi, everyone. Thanks for taking my questions. Peter, thanks for sharing all that detail around the lease mix and that shift as we went through 22, ending Q4 with 55%. As you look through 2023, do you think we've capped out at that 55%? Do you think that can grow meaningfully higher? And then historically, you know, years ago, I used to think of And you guys used to talk about your business as being one-third cash, one-third lease, one-third loan. Clearly, with the low cost of money over the past few years, that changed. Do you think, or can you share what you expect maybe the loan mix to be in 23? And then what do you think cash might be? And then finally, you know, Blue Raven historically, my guess was mostly loans. Have they had, in that group, had success shifting the financing to be leased as well. Thanks.

speaker
Peter Farisi

Yeah, thanks, Phil. On your first question about lease, where do we think lease will come out in 2023? It's our expectation that as the IRA benefits get defined, all of those adders that we talked about in our opening comments are tied to lease. So it's our expectation that that will make lease even more attractive as we go. And so I would expect that 55% to accelerate at some point as we go throughout the year. In terms of our mix, you know, for color, I think we've sort of said, you know, it's roughly 20% cash, 80% financing. And last year, it was the beginning of the year, 80-20 loan, let's call it. I would anticipate that at some point, as the IRA benefits are clear, and we're at full scale, that it'll be probably closer to 50-50, and that may even happen this year. And that's why we feel like we're particularly well-positioned, is that we're really agnostic. We want to do for each individual customer what's best for them. And we're the only residential solar company with the philosophy of really looking out what's in the best long-term interest of the customer and offering them the right financing package for them if they choose to finance the product. And then, Phil, you are correct to point out that Blue Raven's been historically, they've had a little bit of cash, but they've been mostly loan. And I'm happy to report that we anticipated the need to move over to do more lease business in time. And we're working behind the scenes to help the Blue Raven team be ready to sell lease products. And I anticipate us launching that at some point this year. So we'll share more details on that as we get closer. But I think it certainly makes sense. Given the part of the United States that they're serving, I think there's going to be a great opportunity to grow our footprint in those states by having a lease offering as well.

speaker
Philip Shen

Great. Thanks, Peter. And then in terms of your Maxion expansion of the relationship, congrats on that and the additional supply that comes with that. I think on the Q3 call, you guys talked about how Maxion could account for maybe half of your total module supply in 23. My guess is that's going to be higher now with the additional supply. Was wondering if you might be able to talk through, you know, what that could be now. And then as it relates to Hanwha, you know, can you get into how much they might be able to supply you in 23? And then in terms of the other vendors, I think we've written about how Wari might be another vendor. Just wondering if you could talk through more about, you know, where other module vendors might come in. And ultimately, with your ability to grow through this more challenging time for the rest of the loan market, could we see some meaningful, we're kind of backing into maybe 440 megawatts of Maxion in 22. And so that would suggest maybe you guys could do 900 megawatts in 23. which is substantially higher than your official 23 guidance now. And so how does that gap get bridged? And ultimately, I know your guidance is your guidance, but my sense is there could be some conservatives in that guide. Thanks.

speaker
Peter Farisi

Yeah, thanks, Phil. So just to rewind back for context for everybody on the call, when we We did our supply agreement with Maxion almost at this time last year. One of the big benefits for SunPower was the ability for the first time in our history to seek sourcing from panel partners across the world, which has been a terrific opportunity. Having said that, we're so pleased to have extended our partnership with Maxion. They make the best premium panels in the world. We're really happy to be partnering with them. And expanding and extending that agreement is wonderful for both parties. And we hope to be able to work with Maxion in the premium space for many, many years to come. So we're pleased with that. In terms of how we're thinking about supply, you know, last year was challenging. When the Department of Commerce investigation came out and there was investigations in the ADCVD, really the supply dried up across the world and it was very difficult for us to get new supply on board as quickly as we wanted to. And I'm happy to report that not only has that changed, but we've put ourselves in a position where we have sufficient supply to growth and our guidance this year is meant to be conservative. I think there's some uncertainty in the economy and we recognize that, but we've preserved the opportunity to grow faster by having enough supply and flexible supply agreements to serve that. Right now, we're just prepared to talk about our agreement with Maxion and QCELS, but we have other agreements in the works, and I look forward to sharing more details on that with all of you in the month to come. Thanks for the question, Phil.

speaker
Philip Shen

Yeah, thank you, Peter. One last quick one. NEM3, are you seeing the originations picked up now from maybe December lows? You know, they were really weak kind of the first three weeks of January. We're well past that now, and so is the acceleration there in a nice way, or is it okay, but it could be better? What are you seeing thus far in the NEM3 transition? Thanks.

speaker
Peter Farisi

Yeah, so you're right. I think the only time last year where things slowed down on the bookings front was sort of that mid-November to mid-December time period. It was hard to know that because of the election cycle, the economy, the holidays, there's a lot of potential reasons in there. We've been paying very, very close attention to the first six weeks so far this year to get a read on where things are at. And we're very pleased with what demand has looked like really across the country, but in particular, California. We had pretty ambitious plans for how much we thought we could grow California in Q1 because we figured that many consumers would want to try to qualify for NEM 2.0. And I would say we're exceeding those expectations so far. What's been interesting is that it's been a build week by week. So week one was good. Week two was better. Week three was better. And so even if you go through last week, week six for us, it's been building so far and we haven't peaked yet. So I'm interested to see how we finish the quarter. But I would describe us so far on both California NEM and, frankly, the overall residential solar environment as cautiously optimistic, recognizing that six weeks is not long enough to judge this and it's early in the year. But so far, we're very pleased with demand. Thank you.

speaker
Philip Shen

Great. Thank you so much. I'll pass it on to you.

speaker
Operator

Thank you. One moment for our next question. And our next question comes from the line of Kashi Harrison from Piper Sandler. Your question, please.

speaker
Kashi Harrison

Good afternoon, and thank you for taking the questions. So first one for me was my first question is around the customer account. You know, you've expected to add 100,000 this year. What proportion of the 100,000 is expected to be from California? And then can you speak to how many of these customers have been locked in today under an M2?

speaker
Peter Farisi

Yeah, so total customer count for the year, that midpoint of 100,000, think of it as just to, you know, provide some color. The easy way to think about it would be 50% California, 50% rest of country. That's roughly the split we're expecting. I think the actual numbers will be determined, frankly, by how much business gets pulled into Q1 bookings that we have a chance to install, obviously, throughout Q2, Q3, Q4. So that'll determine how that percent evolves throughout the year. And then, I'm sorry, could you repeat your second question again?

speaker
Kashi Harrison

Oh, I was, you may have already answered it. I was just wondering what proportion of California has been locked in today under an M2 before the April 14th.

speaker
Peter Farisi

Sorry, yeah, so we have about, the backlog I talked about in the opening comments, that really carries us, think of it as through Q2 and the beginning of Q3. So all the customers that we're booking now are just adding either additional customers if we get them done faster to Q2, or helping us fill out our operations pipeline in Q3. But from a California perspective, I would say, you know, one of the things we've seen with NEM previously is that there is a buildup before the change. And then after the change takes place, things do slow down for a quarter, maybe a quarter or two. And so one of the reasons we're investing heavily in Q1 to take advantage of this is it just makes sense. That's a good business practice to build up a big backlog here in California. and sort of smooth out our Californian business over the course of the whole year. It's our expectation by the time we get back to the fourth quarter that we'll resume, you know, more normal growth rates and things will be back on track, particularly as, you know, Californians take advantage of both the offer for PV plus solar batteries.

speaker
Kashi Harrison

Thanks, Peter. And then my follow-up question, I was just looking at slide 12, and you indicated here that you have a cost of capital that's 300 to 400 basis points below what we saw in the ABS in Q4 and then I guess in January. Can you walk us through why or refresh us on why exactly your cost of capital is so much lower for SunPower Financial? And then how do you think about the cost of alternative sources of capital once that $2 billion you indicated, once you originated enough customers to run through that $2 billion? Sure. Guthrie, do you want to take that?

speaker
Mike

Yeah. So we're very happy with our sources of capital for both lease and loan. I think we're very competitive on both. I think your question is mostly around loan, but on the lease side, I'm very happy to have capital to serve essentially all of this year's demand, most of which comes with fixed rates, so it's much less sensitive to rate exposure. On the loan side, part of our partnerships involves different forms of capital, and that's an area that we intend to grow and diversify and include additional forms of capital, be it direct to the ABS market, institutional investors, the banking market, things like that. So we certainly hope to and plan to expand the sources of capital, not only from a number of institutions, but types of capital, which will certainly impact what our cost of capital looks like going forward.

speaker
spk03

Thank you. One moment for our next question.

speaker
Operator

And our next question comes from the line of Joseph Osha from Guggenheim. Your question, please.

speaker
Joseph Osha

Hi there. Thanks for taking my questions. I wanted to go back to some of the comments that you made on the additional tax credits. I was looking at the guidance that was released earlier this week on energy communities, which I think might best be described as obtuse. And I'm wondering, as you look at that and think about the process, how long is it going to take, you think, before you have your dealers and yourselves really fully equipped to claim these credits and apply for them and handle that whole process?

speaker
Peter Farisi

That's a great question, Joseph. As you might imagine, as an impatient business leader, you know, we want it done yesterday, and I think – To be fair to the Department of Treasury, I think they're trying to sort out how to provide guidance and meet the needs of many constituents. But the guidance that came out earlier for both low income and energy communities, we do believe needs more clarity and needs to be better defined and needs to be more specific. When I have met with the Department of Energy, I know how passionate they are about serving low income consumers and U.S. citizens in these energy communities. So I know the intentions are good. but it will be difficult for businesses to act upon without more clarity. And that's what we're working on with the Department of Treasury right now. So I still remain cautiously optimistic. I know that they care about this and they want to get this right. To answer your question as directly as I can, I would say it will probably take another quarter before the clarity is there and it's built into the tools. And it's kind of a regular business practice. And If we could make that happen sooner, that would certainly be our preference.

speaker
Joseph Osha

Okay, thank you. And then the second question returns to what Kashi was asking, really more on the lease side. You've got, you say, enough financing in place to cover this year, but as you pointed out, the industry seems to be shifting more to third-party ownership on a longer-term basis. So as you think about that, Is there some perhaps special way that you might come at that given your relationship with Hannon, or might we see you out there in the ABS market with lease PPA securitizations alongside your competitors?

speaker
Peter Farisi

Sure. Guthrie, do you want to cover that?

speaker
Mike

Of course. So I'd say we have discussions going in our business. quite confident in our ability to bring in additional partners across the capital stacks if we need them, the tax equity, the senior debt market as well as potential other sources of subordinated capital. Hannon is a wonderful partner and we have a lot of runway to continue working with them to partner with them to bring in all of the capital. I think we continue to evaluate all of the various ways that we can most efficiently monetize our lease business. And that could include direct securitization market and could include other forms as well. But we're confident in our ability to raise sufficient capital and to raise it very efficiently.

speaker
Joseph Osha

Okay. So we could see you in the ABS market at some point on the lease side. That's one of the, at least one of the potential outcomes.

speaker
Mike

Certainly one of the potential outcomes for sure.

speaker
Joseph Osha

Okay. Thank you very much.

speaker
Corrine

thank you one moment for our next question and our next question comes from the line of corinne blanchard from deutsche bank your question please hey good evening everyone thank you for taking the question um the first one if you could try to give us maybe um the cadence that we could expect um you know quarter after quarter for the eb down maybe like a you know rough commentary um and then You know, second question would be what is back in the EBITDA guidance, like the key take and put for the low range of the guidance and the high range? Thank you.

speaker
Peter Farisi

Yeah, thank you, Corrine. So, let me go back to 2022. Actually, I'll start actually with analyst day. I think part of what we laid out over this vision between now and 2025 was heavy investment years in 22 and 23. and gaining more business leverage in 24 and 25, and we're well on track, both from a customer standpoint, an EBITDA standpoint, and EBITDA per customer standpoint. So we're pleased with 22, and we're looking forward to 23. Let me give you some context on the EBITDA, and then I'm going to answer your question on how we think about it throughout the year. So last year, we grew EBITDA 26%, as I said in my opening comments. The midpoint of our guidance this year is 47% growth. So that's quite an acceleration, that 2,100 BIP acceleration, frankly, is earlier than we would have expected it back at analyst day. And we're excited to have that leverage be happening in the business already. From a sequencing standpoint, even though we don't give quarterly guidance, we did say last year, most of it would be backend loaded. And that same thing will be true for 2023. Last year, we were about 25% EBIT in the first half. 75% of the EBITDA in the second half. And we've modeled that exact same EBITDA pattern for this year. So you can think of it as 25 and 75 again this year. And some context for that is, particularly in Q1, there is some seasonality. So Q1 is smaller than the other three quarters of the year. Part of that's related to weather in the beginning of the seasonality piece here. But the two unique factors are, one, we're making a big investment in California purposefully. That's a unique investment that we wouldn't have normally made for one particular quarter. And that's really to be smart about, you know, helping as many customers qualify for an M2.0 as possible. So those extra expenses we'll be taking on in Q1. And then also for some context, our best two quarters last year in new homes were Q1 and Q2 of last year. Quite a bit of our EBITDA in Q1 from last year was due to new homes. And so we've talked about the new home slowdown and our modest expectations for new homes profitability this year. So, you know, just to give you some color, I would say still 25% of the EBITDA in Q1, Q2, but we expect Q1 to be pretty modest as we make these investments to build and grow our business for the year.

speaker
Corrine

Thank you. Yeah, just maybe if you can give any other quarter on, like, what's big in the guidance. Like, just, like, you know, what would it take for you to reach the $150 million or what can go wrong to reach the $125? Yeah.

speaker
Peter Farisi

Yeah. Well, we've sort of thought about it as a mix of – it is a mix of headwinds and tailwinds. That's the reality. It's not a doomsday story. It's not a, you know, strictly positive story. On the headwinds front, we talked about new homes in our remarks. We talked about California NEMs. And then obviously there's this inflation economy factor that's out there that could impact consumer sentiment. The positives are the two we talked about as well, which is the IRA is going to be an incremental net benefit this year and rising utility costs have continued to make solar more and more valuable. So where we net out on those is we were conservative for both new homes and conservative for California NEM. Either one of those two outperforms our conservatism That takes you to the 140 and above guidance. And then if any of those headwinds are stronger headwinds than we're anticipating, then we're below the 140 guidance. And I think we feel pretty good about where we're going to be on new homes and California NEM. It's really just, is there any kind of unexpected variance in the economy or customer confidence that happens? If something unexpected like that happened, that would push us below the 140 and closer to the 125. As I said, it's way too early to judge after the first six weeks of the year, but I would say so far we're pleased.

speaker
Corrine

All right. Thank you.

speaker
Operator

Thank you. One moment for our next question. And our next question comes from the line of Biju Peranchal from Sheshkwahana Financial. Your question, please.

speaker
spk12

Hi. Thanks for taking the question. question about battery attach rates. Once we have sort of fully transitioned to NEM 3.0, can you talk about where do you expect the attach rates to go? And also related to that, how quickly can you increase your supplies from, I think you mentioned low double digit attach rates that you can do now?

speaker
Peter Farisi

Yeah, thank you. I think if you take a look at where California NEM 3.0 rules are headed, what you immediately notice is the battery becomes really, really critical so that you can help our consumers take advantage of this dynamic rate structure that California is putting in place. And so the battery goes from something that would be helpful for resiliency to something actually critical as part of saving money. And that's why the battery plus PV is really likely to become the more standard option there. So, you know, if you take a look at where this has played out and you take a look at a country like Germany, I believe their battery attached rates are now over 70, 75%. So I think at some point that's what happens in California. Certainly on the new homes front, we're seeing most of our new homes are PV plus battery and frankly, more and more PV plus battery plus EV charger. But I think retrofit homes, I think you'll see more and more consumers opting in for that over time. Our battery attach rates are in the mid teens for our direct channels we talked about. I'm a little disappointed they haven't grown faster, but we also take a long-term view of the business. In other words, a customer doesn't have to buy a battery at the time of PV installation to have a battery over time. And so I also think at some point we're going to see some growth in California for people adding batteries that they understand this dynamic rate structure and how important batteries are to take advantage of both that and future VPP programs. So, in our analyst day presentation, I think we talked about getting to a battery attached rate that was maybe closer to 40% or something like that, and I would hope and hope or expect in California that it's probably above that level within the next few years.

speaker
spk12

Thanks for that. A related follow-up is when you have the next generation battery available, how does your gross margin improve on the battery product?

speaker
Peter Farisi

Yeah, terrific question. I think, you know, as I see the battery market, solar battery market across the U.S., it's my understanding that many battery makers struggle to sell batteries profitably. I'm happy to report that our battery business is profitable. It may not be growing as fast as I want it to, but it is profitable right now, and we think we're in a good position from an inventory standpoint. But I think forward-looking, this Sunvolt 2.0 we're going to work on is critical. Once we re-architect the product, I think we're actually going to be able to take out a bunch of the cost and significantly reduce the time it takes to install and commission. And that's what matters to consumers on the cost side, and that's what matters to dealers and installers. who are in the field putting these products in for customers. So forward-looking, if you take a look at all the other competitors in the battery space, it's taken them a couple generations of batteries to get it right. We have a good, solid competitive product today, but not a product that's differentiated. I think Sunvolt 2.0 will be an opportunity for us to really differentiate ourselves in this space, and we're very excited about what we're working on behind the scenes. Thank you.

speaker
Operator

Thank you. One moment for our next question. And our next question comes from the line of Pavel Montradov from Raymond James. Your question, please.

speaker
Pavel Montradov

Thanks for taking the question. As you show that table of utility rates, you know, having jumped more last year than in the previous decade combined, are there any specific statistics states or geographies that you can point to that have emerged as demand drivers, whereas they were not a year ago?

speaker
Peter Farisi

Thanks, Pablo. I'm not sure I could point it necessarily compared to a year ago, but I will say we have been surprised and delighted by the growth in the northeast part of the country. So if you take a look at that Massachusetts, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut corridor, our business there has outgrown what our expectations would have been. And I think a lot of that is due to these older, really inefficient energy systems that much of that installed customer base has over time. So I think the Northeast is the area that's probably outgrowing its normal growth rate due to high utility prices. But what's interesting is that it is pretty uniform across the U.S. I mean, an average of 11% That really is hitting consumers every month. And we're seeing an increasing amount of feedback. People have always wanted to have solar as solar prices came down to save money. But I think that's risen on the list of reasons why they purchase. And it's a very big focus of the discussions we have with new customers as they come on board. They really want to make sure that they save money and they save it quickly.

speaker
Pavel Montradov

Appreciate that. Following up, we now have the lowest unemployment rate in 50 odd years. Are any of your installers complaining about labor shortages or rising wage rates, anything along those lines? And if so, where geographically is that more an issue?

speaker
Peter Farisi

We've been very fortunate, and I think part of the reason we've been fortunate with labor is that we are on a special mission to make a positive difference in the world. So I was just out with a number of our installation teams over the past two weeks throughout California. For those who haven't had a chance to go out and see a customer installation, it's so inspiring. I mean, customers are delighted, and our teams are like professional athletes up there on the roof getting all this hard work done. So despite the fact that it's challenging work and the weather conditions very widely throughout the year, we really have had an opportunity to being able to hire as we need to hire and stay sufficiently staffed. One of the things that's critical for us and our core values is how important safety is. And when I'm out in the field and I'm talking to our installers, the number one value that I talk about first is how much we care about their safety. So we're constantly making sure they have the best equipment in terms of helmets and no cut gloves. We're constantly doing safety audits to see if we can improve our performance. And I think at the end of the day, that sincere value of safety, in addition to the mission, comes through. And I think many people really want to work for a company like SunPower. So we've been fortunate so far. We have not really been impacted by labor shortages. Beginning of last year, we had a couple of specialty areas that were more difficult to hire for. But we were still able to hire and stay on plan throughout last year. And so far this year, I'm cautiously optimistic we'll be able to do the same.

speaker
Pavel Montradov

Got it. Thanks very much.

speaker
Peter Farisi

We've got time for, yeah, thank you. We've got time for one or two more questions. Thank you.

speaker
Operator

Certainly. And possibly our final question for today comes from the line of Ned from Wells Fargo. Your question, please.

speaker
Ned

Hey, guys. Thanks for squeezing me in. You talked about backlog growth due to customers in California rushing to submit their applications before April 15th. Is there a risk for customers that end up in your backlog to be effectively stolen by other installers offering better terms or faster installation times? Or is there a mechanism that you have in place to lock in the customers so that they remain in your backlog until you get to the installation of their systems, even if that falls in the third quarter.

speaker
Peter Farisi

Yeah, thank you for the question. So our customers who choose SunPower normally choose SunPower because we have the highest rated customer experience in the United States for residential solar. And that's the combination of the high-quality panels, the world-class consumer confidence warranty, and the long history we have at serving customers well. So it's our expectation that once customers sign up with us and sign a contract, that they'll remain with us throughout that time period. One of the things we're trying to do in California is try to give some good guidance for customers on when their installation can take place. We know that for customers who have a more simple installation, it is likely that they'll still be able to be installed, you know, in the next few months. But for those who have more complicated installations, and that could include a re-roof or a main panel upgrade, you know, it will take us longer to get to those customers if they have a fair amount of work to do on their home before we arrive. So it's our expectation that these customers will remain with SunPower, and we feel very good about the reason they've chosen us to begin with, and we think that many of them will stick through us as we work through our backlog.

speaker
Ned

That makes sense.

speaker
Peter Farisi

Thanks very much to everybody today. Yeah, sorry, go ahead. You can finish up.

speaker
Ned

I just had one quick question on the additional platform investment, the $55 million in 2023. Is this a reflection of previously unforeseen requirements to get you to where you want to be or just accelerating investments to improve the EBITDA per customer?

speaker
Peter Farisi

Accelerating investments to drive more growth and provide more growth opportunities. So the last page I went through in our opening comments These new panel agreements, the GM arrangement, the new battery we're working on, those are examples. And then programs like VPP and grid services are other examples of things that we're quite excited about investing heavily in. You really think of this as, you know, my role for this company is not just to make sure we deliver results between now and 2025, but I'm constantly porpoising back and forth between today and our future. And we're trying to invest in what I would call seeds of growth, you know, new business opportunities that by the time we reach 25 will become material. One of the best examples of it is probably VPP. It's a business that we're in today on a smaller scale. It won't be material this year. It'll begin to gain some momentum again in 23 and 24. But it's the kind of business that we would count on being more material by the time we get to 2025. So we're being very smart about we have a strong balance sheet. It's a land grab here in the U.S. We're leaning in, and that's all part of our strategy is to lean in and invest and build and grow something special. Big thanks to all of you for all the questions, and we look forward to sharing our results and our details with you for a terrific 2023. Thanks very much.

speaker
Operator

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen, for your participation at today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect. Good day.

Disclaimer

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