11/5/2020

speaker
Carl MacDonald
President and Chief Executive Officer

and restaurateur and chef Scott Conant, which we expect to grow significantly in the coming years. Turning now to our now closed acquisitions of Torrens University Think Education and the Media Design School. First, I'd like to say that we're thrilled to be the new owners of these very high-quality assets, and we look forward to investing in their long-term growth, where we see significant opportunities. For 2021, we expect Australia and New Zealand to generate approximately 270 million US dollars of revenue and 60 million US dollars of EBITDA, representing 10% growth for each. And as a reminder, Torrens University is the only federally recognized investor-funded university in Australia, uniquely positioning it to innovate within Australia's higher education market. Now, in terms of next year, Our initial 2021 notional model assumes, until we have evidence to the contrary, that our current enrollment trends continue into next year, and specifically, that we see continued weakness in new enrollments at Strayer University through the first half of 2021, stabilizing in the second half. We also see a continuation of Capella University's current performance with mid-single-digit new student growth. The notional model also assumes significant growth within alternative learning, as I just said, and the $270 million of revenue and $60 million of EBITDA in Australia and New Zealand. All of that then would generate consolidated SEI revenue growth in 2021 of approximately 15%. We would also then assume flat EBITDA, a 29.5% tax rate, capital expenditures of between $50 and $55 million, and our new share count of 24.2 million shares. So in summary, we project continued strong cash generation and accumulation of $450 million in liquidity at the end of this year and $500-plus million at the end of next year. We remain committed to our student-first focus on academic achievement. And as has been our practice in other periods of economic downturns, we don't try to chase or create demand that isn't there organically. Our solid financial strength enables us to withstand wide variations in enrollment, and we remain highly confident that Strayer's demand will eventually recover to pre-pandemic levels and begin to grow again, particularly as overall demand for high-quality digital learning is now higher than ever. And operationally next year, our primary focus will remain to serve the highest possible levels of academic quality for all of our students and work to successfully integrate Torrens, Think Education, and the Media Design School into SEI. And importantly, we remain committed to addressing college affordability and will actively work to reduce our cost of attendance and debt levels for all of our students. In our Investor Day last year, I said that we have an aspirational 10-year vision to fully convert 100 percent of our tuition from Title IV funding to the private sector via our employer partnerships. We remain committed to that vision and, in fact, intend to modify our executive incentive compensation program to include this metric as a qualifier in determining whether incentive compensation has been earned and at what levels. We will also maintain our disciplined cost approach, and with the support of our full board of directors, will deploy our financial capital towards the highest long-term returns, including returning surplus capital back to our shareholders. And finally, I'd like to thank all of my colleagues within SEI, including our newest colleagues in Australia and New Zealand, for all of the dedication and continued hard work during this very challenging year. And with that, Daphne, we'd be happy to open up for Q&A.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Operator?

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

At this time, in order to ask a question, press star 1 on your telephone keypad. To withdraw your question, press the pound key. Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster. Your first question comes from the line of Jeff Silber with BMO Capital Markets.

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