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4/23/2024
After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. To ask a question, you may press star, then 1 on your telephone keypad. To withdraw your question, please press star, then 2. Please note, this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Shanie Hudson, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Thank you. Hello, everyone, and welcome to today's call. Joining me are Dave Mosley, Seagate's Chief Executive Officer, and Gianluca Romano, our Chief Financial Officer. We've posted our earnings press release and the detailed supplemental information for our March quarter results on the Investors section of our website. During today's call, we will refer to GAAP and non-GAAP measures. Non-GAAP figures are reconciled to GAAP figures in the earnings press release posted on our website and included in our Form 8-K. We've not reconciled certain non-GAAP outlook measures because material items that may impact these measures are out of our control and or cannot be reasonably predicted. Therefore, reconciliation to the corresponding GAAP measures is not available without unreasonable effort. Before we begin, I'd like to remind you that today's call contains forward-looking statements that reflect management's current views and assumptions based on information available to us as of today. and should not be relied upon as of any subsequent date. Actual results may differ materially from those contained in or implied by these forward-looking statements as they're subject to risks and uncertainties associated with our business. To learn more about the risks, uncertainties, and other factors that may affect our future business results, please refer to the press release issued today and our SEC filings, including our most recent annual report on Form 10-K and quarterly report on Form 10-Q, as well as the supplemental information, all of which may be found on the Investors section of our website. Following our prepared remarks, we'll open the call up for questions. In order to provide all analysts with the opportunity to participate, we thank you in advance for asking one primary question and then reentering the queue. I'll now hand the call over to you, Dave.
Thank you, Shanie, and hello, everyone. Seagate is delivering solid financial results in an improving demand environment. In the March quarter, we grew revenue 6%, expanded non-GAAP gross profit 18%, and more than doubled non-GAAP earnings per share compared with the prior quarter. Our performance is a function of both improving end market demand and the decisive actions we implemented throughout the downturn to strengthen our financial profile heading into the recovery. Nearline cloud demand trends are increasingly positive across both U.S. and China customers, and we also saw a sequential improvement in the enterprise OEM markets in the March quarter. On the execution side, the quarter-on-quarter margin expansion reflects our pricing initiatives taking hold, as well as favorable mix, resulting in revenue growth in the quarter outpacing Exabyte growth. Pricing strategy is just one key piece of our broader focus on profitability, which also includes maintaining a healthy supply-demand balance, introducing new technologies to enhance value for our customers, and maintaining tight expense controls with an emphasis on generating cash. Looking at the near-term end-market dynamics, cloud continues to lead the demand recovery. For a second consecutive quarter, we realized strong double-digit revenue growth from sales to cloud customers, with improvement across both US and global cloud names. We believe the long-running cloud customer inventory correction is mostly complete, and their end demand is also improving. Based on our customer interactions, we currently expect healthy near-line demand growth to continue through the rest of calendar 2024. Within the enterprise OEM markets, demand stabilized in the second half of calendar 2023, and we observed incremental improvement in the March quarter. Historically, enterprise near-line demand has correlated well with traditional server growth, which is projected to modestly increase in calendar 2024. As a result, we expect enterprise OEM revenue to improve as server growth resumes. In the VIA markets, revenue was seasonally lower in the March quarter, and we expect demand to trend higher through the calendar year. Smart cities remain the largest end market opportunity for VIA products. However, new applications continue to emerge that use AI analytics to form actionable insights from data at the edge, where an estimated 80% of data resides. One such use case centers on smart energy and utility management that aims to use imaging data to drive energy efficiency and conservation. Analysts placed this among the fastest-growing sectors for VIA applications worldwide. Within China, the pace and magnitude of demand improvement in VIA and other HDD markets will be shaped by economic recovery in the region. We continue to monitor the government's efforts to spur economic growth, including stimulus plans aimed at digital transformation and infrastructure spend. Recent economic indicators show signs of progress. However, it will take time for the benefits of these programs to take hold. Overall, we believe these constructive market trends support steady revenue growth throughout the calendar year. Our ability to deliver that growth is enhanced by our build-it-order initiative that is now in place with a majority of large mass capacity customers. These plans afford Seagate better demand visibility and greater predictability for capacity planning, while our customers find value in the assurance of supply that meets their volume and timing needs. Importantly, the improving overall outlook for HDD demand is unfolding as we execute on our product and technology roadmap. Today, we are simultaneously driving qualification and rank plans for two high capacity product families. Our last PMR product delivering up to 28 terabytes per drive, as well as our first hammer based mosaic product on three plus terabytes per disc. This is rare for our industry and I want to acknowledge our product teams at Seagate who are doing a phenomenal job supporting customers as we work together to advance our industry leading products and technologies through the various customer qualifications. These two product families share about 95% commonality in components and leverage the same assembly processes and test processes. This enables efficiencies across areas such as procurement, manufacturing, capital investments, and customer qualifications. The 2428 terabyte PMR drives are in qualification at most of our global cloud and enterprise customers. We have already completed qualification with one major enterprise customer, some global tier two customers, and with our enterprise systems business. We currently expect to begin shipping significant volumes in the first half of fiscal 2025. Relative to Hammer technology, we continue to progress towards completing our first large CSP customer qualification, though we experienced a temporary slowdown in recent weeks. We determined the mechanical component unrelated to the hammer recording subsystem and some of our drives was not performing as expected. We identified and rapidly implemented the solution with full support from our customer. Verification tests are underway and these tests should be completed in the June quarter. Every other aspect of the qualification process has gone as expected. With this shift in timing, We now expect to ship a few hundred thousand Hammer-based Mosaic drives in the June quarter and meet the remainder of our customers' Exabyte demand through other already qualified products. As we gradually ramp Hammer products with our lead hyperscale customer in the second half of the calendar year, we remain focused on broadening the number of customers qualified on Mosaic products. Customer feedback reaffirms strong interest in Hammer technology. And that is further reflected in the successful completion of our first qualification with a top non-cloud customer a few weeks ago. We've laid out a mosaic roadmap with a clear path to at least 50 terabyte drives that offers customers TCO and sustainability benefits, including lower power consumption and less required floor space on a per terabyte basis. We are scaling drive capacity through aerial density gains rather than adding heads and disks. As we execute on our product roadmap to 50 terabytes and beyond, we expect to incur minimal changes to our bill of material costs and maintain low capital intensity of between 4% and 6% of revenue. As a result, we believe Hammer provides the path for achieving margin performance beyond our current target range as production scales and also positions Seagate well to continue capitalizing on megatrends like AI and machine learning which drive long-term demand for cost-efficient mass storage. As we've discussed in the past, the initial phase of GenAI has focused on building out the compute-intensive infrastructure required to develop and train large language models. As development shifts to the deployment phase, enterprises will begin to leverage these trained AI models to transform data with value-enhancing applications and generate data-rich content. Customers expect HDD demand to increase as this phase takes hold. Over the next several years, the volume of AI-generated content is expected to increase and also shift towards more imagery and videos, which can be up to 1,000 times larger than text. These trends bode well for HDD demand over the long term, as HDDs remain the most cost-effective means to house and subsequently use mass capacity data. To summarize, the combination of more favorable demand trends, strong operating discipline, and product and technology leadership provide the foundation for driving further financial performance gains. This combination reinforces our confidence in returning to our long-term target margin ranges and potentially exceed those ranges over time as hammer-based products proliferate in the marketplace. With that, Gianluca will now cover our financial performance and outlook.
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