1/23/2024

speaker
Tegan
Conference Facilitator

Please stand by while I connect the call. Good morning and welcome to United Airlines Holdings Earning Conference Call for the fourth quarter 2023 and full year 2023. My name is Tegan and I'll be your conference facilitator today. Following the initial remarks from management, we will open the lines for questions. At that time, you may dial pound two on your telephone keypad to enter the question queue. You'll hear a notification when your line is unmuted, at which point please then state your name, the company you represent, and your question. This call is being recorded and is copyrighted. Please note that no portion of the call may be recorded, transcribed, or rebroadcast without the company's permission. Your participation implies your consent to our recording of the call. If you do not agree with these terms, simply drop off the line. I will now turn the presentation over to your host for today's call, Christina Edwards, Managing Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

speaker
Christina Edwards
Managing Director of Investor Relations

Thank you, Tegan. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to United's fourth quarter and full year 2023 earnings conference call. Yesterday, we issued our earnings release, which is available on our website at ir.united.com. Information in yesterday's release made during this conference call may contain forward-looking statements, which represent the company's current expectations or beliefs concerning future events and financial performance. All forward-looking statements are based upon information currently available to the company. A number of factors could cause actual results to differ materially from our current expectations. Please refer to our earnings release form, Time Paying Thank You, and other reports filed with the SEC by United Airlines and United Airlines for a more thorough description of these factors. Unless otherwise noted, we will be discussing our financial metrics on a non-GAAP basis on this call. Please refer to the related definitions and reconciliations in our press release. For reconciliation of these non-GAAP measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures, please refer to the tables at the end of our earnings release. Joining us on the call today to discuss our results and outlook are Chief Executive Officer Scott Kirby, President Brett Hart, Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer Andrew Nassela, and Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer Mike Luskin. In addition, we have other members of the executive team on the line available to assist with Q&A. Now, I'd like to turn the call over to Scott.

speaker
Scott Kirby
Chief Executive Officer

Thank you, Christina, and good morning to everyone on the call today. Despite numerous geopolitical and other headwinds around the globe, 2023 really was the year that our plan for United Next came together. Our thesis at this time last year was that operational constraints and other factors were leading to cost convergence, and those cost pressures in turn would lead to higher revenues. That is certainly true for United as our diversified revenue streams continue to differentiate us from other airlines. Another way of saying that is that we believe that a new link between United's chasm and RASM was being solidified. And while it might be hard to get either a chasm or a razzle forecast exactly correct, we could have higher confidence in forecasting the relationship between the two, and therefore have higher confidence in our earnings and margin forecasts. And despite a year filled with events that we could have never predicted, that's exactly what happened in 2023. And so I'd like to thank the 100,000 United Team members around the world who worked so hard to make that happen. And those same 100,000 people continue to deliver in the face of a huge impact on our employees and customers from the MAX 9 ground. I'm proud of our tech ops team who's taken the lead and has been working 18-hour days nonstop since January 6th to ensure that the MAX 9 is 100% safe before we return it to service. I'd also like to thank the FAA for their professional leadership in this situation and also acknowledge the that they, too, are also working long hours and weekends with us in an effort to ensure that we know for sure what happened so that we'd be confident that the remediation prevents it from ever happening again. 2023 really sets the stage for what is likely to be a repeat in 2020. United financial performance is present, especially if you consider what analysts were expecting just one year ago. In 2023, we delivered full-year earnings per share above $10, which was a in the range of our initial United Next targets of 10 to 12. I want to spend some time today examining how we got there and why we think those trends will persist in 2024. One, we expected the operating environment to be challenging, driven by the pilot and other hiring constraints, FAA air traffic control set, maintenance catch-up, and supply chain issues. It turned out to be even more challenging than we thought. And those operating environment challenges led directly to industry capacity plans, including our own, coming down three points on average as carriers adapted to the new operating environment. For United, we made changes to our schedule and we closed out the year setting operational records. The improvements in Newark in particular are one of the most important accomplishments that we achieved last year. Brett will share more details in just a moment, but the FAA waivers right side of the airport and airspace to physical constraints, and allowed us to run an operation that's performing better than ever and newer. That's been good for our business, and it's been really good for our customers. Three, but as we predict, the challenging operating environment led to cost pressures and cost convergence in the industry. To be fair, even we at United underestimated the inflationary pressures that we would face, primarily from labor, maintenance, and supply chain issues. And that led to higher absolute chasm X than we were forecasting. But those same cost pressures are being felt across the entire industry. And a year ago when we talked, we believed that industry-wide cost pressures would wind up as a pass-through, much like fuel has been in the past. Four, and that is, in fact, exactly what happened. While industry cost pressures drove higher in Cas and Max and United, we offset those higher-than-expected costs with higher-than-expected revenues. Five, which leads to the final point. While difficult to predict events like a fuel price spike, rising conflict in the Middle East, fires in Maui, persistent place pressure, so many other things that make it difficult to predict United's full year 2023 chasm and RASM 12 months in advance. The tightening connection at United between chasm and RASM meant that we achieved our initial $10 to $12 EPS range, despite those multiple headwinds around the field. The link between RASM and CASM combined with the success of United Next was what made 2023 such a successful and important year in our history. And we expect 2024 to follow a similar path for the same reasons. This is just the new normal. The operational challenges remain. It will be years before the FAA is back to full staffing. We're still overlapping new labor agreements which show up in our CASM. And the supply chain challenges aren't going away anytime soon. That means capacity will continue to ratchet down out of necessity, and cost convergence will continue. But revenues will adjust to the new cost reality, and you can expect United to maintain and grow EPS and margins. Two and a half years ago, we laid out our United Next Growth Strategy. In 2023, we demonstrated that the plan is working almost exactly as we expected, and the future is bright. There have been and there will be more bumps in the road, but we continue to feel confident about our ability to grow earnings and margin over the long term because of the tighter connection between United's cost and United's revenue. Looking ahead to 2024, the United Next plan is working and NOAA Airlines is better positioned to capitalize on industry and macroeconomic trends than United, and we're continuing to move aggressively to capitalize on emerging opportunities. We'll have more to share with you at our investor day later this spring. In the meantime, focused on delivering another great year for our employees, customers, and our shareholders. And with that, I'll hand it over to Brett.

Disclaimer

This conference call transcript was computer generated and almost certianly contains errors. This transcript is provided for information purposes only.EarningsCall, LLC makes no representation about the accuracy of the aforementioned transcript, and you are cautioned not to place undue reliance on the information provided by the transcript.

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