Universal Stainless & Alloy Products, Inc.

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Universal Stainless second quarter 2021 conference call and webcast. At this time, all participant lines are in a listen-only mode. After the speaker's presentation, there will be a question and answer session. To ask a question during the session, you would need to press star then one on your telephone. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. If you require any further assistance, please press star then zero. I would now like to hand the conference over to your host today, June Fillingeri. Please go ahead.

Thank you, Sarah. Good morning. This is June Fillingeri of ComPartners, and I also would like to welcome you to the Universal Stainless Conference call and webcast. We're here to discuss the company's second quarter 2021 results reported this morning. With us for management are Denny Oates, Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer of Chris Simmer, Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer, and John Arminas, Vice President, General Counsel, and Corporate Secretary. Before I turn the call over to management, let me quickly review procedures. After management has made formal remarks, we will take your questions. And as Sarah said, she will instruct you on procedures at that time. Also, please note in this morning's call, management will make forward-looking statements. Under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, I would like to remind you of the risks related to these statements, which are more fully described in today's press release and in the company's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. With the formalities complete, I would now like to turn the call over to Denny Oates. Denny, we are ready to begin.

Thank you, June. Good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining us today. Our second quarter results built on the trends we highlighted in the first quarter and further confirms our 2021 outlook for consecutive quarterly improvement. If anything, demand momentum accelerated at a faster clip than we projected. Specifically, during the second quarter, we posted a new company record with gross bookings of $74 million. Cancellations were minimal. Bookings increased 68% sequentially and tripled the second quarter of 2020 level. It is noteworthy that 42% of the second quarter bookings are scheduled for delivery in the first half of 2022. We reported a rapidly growing backlog of $98.9 million, an increase of 71% during the quarter, more than doubling our backlog since December 31st of 2020. We reported all end markets increased bookings and backlog with a growing confidence in the aerospace recovery standing out. We turned a corner on profitability, achieving a positive gross margin of 5.6% in the second quarter, the highest level since the pre-pandemic first quarter of 2020. We increased sequential electric arc and vacuum induction melting activity by 15% and 8% respectively. On a year-over-year basis, electric arc melting was up 33%. and vacuum melting of premium alloys was up 71%. We also noted that our $10 million payroll protection plan loan was officially forgiven early in July and will be recorded in our third fiscal quarter. Let's take a deeper dive into the second quarter itself. Net sales in the second quarter of 2021 were $38.5 million, an increase of 4% from the first quarter. This reflected strong sequential sales growth in each of our end markets except for aerospace, which is off 4% from the first quarter. Shipments were 14.3 million pounds, up 3% sequentially and 28% from the cyclical low fourth quarter of 2020. Indications continue to point to demand recovery in the commercial aerospace market in the second half of 2021, accelerating into 2022 and 2023, as evidenced in our order entry and backlog. Our sales were more heavily weighted towards semi-finished products, including lower premium melted products, offset by strong plate sales. Premium alloy sales total $5.9 million, or 15% of second quarter sales. That's down from $7.6 million, or 20% of sales in the first quarter, reflecting inventory drawdown in aerospace. Customers report pull-in requests from OEMs are growing, and our premium alloy orders and our incoming bookings in June 30 backlog are up at the more normal rate of 21% to 25% of sales. Second quarter plate sales totaled $9.3 million, or 24% of sales, the highest sales level since the record third quarter of 2018. The sharp recovery in industrial manufacturing combined with a continuing strong automotive market are driving plate demand. Gross profit of $2.2 million in the second quarter improved by $2.4 million from the first quarter, on top of a $4.8 million improvement from the fourth quarter. As a reminder, gross profit in the second quarter includes fixed cost absorption charges of $2.1 million associated with historically low activity levels. That said, the $2.4 million sequential improvement in gross profit reflects three major factors. Improved absorption as activity levels recover, about $1.1 million of the improvement. Positive misalignment between surcharges and metallic costs on product shift, about a half a million dollars. Lower operating costs due to improved productivity and increased yields, about $800,000. In addition, we remain extremely vigilant in controlling spending and maintain controllable fixed operating spending 35% below pre-pandemic levels during the quarter. Given our increase in bookings and backlog, we are clearly in ramp-up mode operationally. The ramp is evident on the primary end of our business. That would be melting, remelting, grinding, and hot-working activity, all of which have increased. Our downstream operations will be increasing output as we move through the second half with a higher mix of finished bar products. For context, our overall plant activity level in the second quarter, as measured by pounds processed, was 44% above the recent cyclical low in the third quarter of 2020, but remains 42% below the last cyclical high in the fourth quarter of 2019. Our goal is to maximize operating leverage on higher volumes through tight spending controls and a continued drive to improve productivity and first-time-through metrics. The ramp will not be without its challenges. Like every manufacturer and distributor I know today, we are challenged by a limited labor pool and growing inflationary trends for key operating supplies and parts. However, we remain confident we will meet these challenges. Let's look at commodity prices for a minute. Except for cobalt, prices of all commodities used in manufacturing our products increased during the second quarter. Nickel resumed its climb after retreating at the end of the first quarter, rising 9% sequentially and 41% from the second quarter a year ago. Moly was up 47% from the first quarter and more than doubled its level last year. Scrap also nearly doubled from a year ago and was up 11% from the first quarter. This general rise in commodity prices over the past couple quarters is increasing surcharges at a faster pace than our average melt cost, yielding a short-term benefit to gross profit, which we estimated at about a half million dollars in the second quarter. Surcharges will continue to increase in the third quarter, but we expect the benefit to be tempered somewhat as melt costs catch up to surcharges. As to base pricing of our products, we have now announced three price increases this year, The first was a base price increase of 3% to 10% on all products effective March 1st, and it will be reflected in late third quarter shipments. We followed with a base price increase on all bar products of 3% to 10% effective June 21st. The latest increase was announced earlier this week, a base price increase of 3% to 10% on all long products, which becomes effective immediately. The latter two increases will benefit our sales as we move into 2022. Continuing down the income statement, selling general administrative expenses of $5.2 million and 13.4 percent of sales were essentially unchanged from the first quarter, and we expect little change for the remainder of the year. With an effective tax rate of 28 percent, our net loss in the second quarter was reduced to $2.5 million, or 28 cents per diluted share. The net loss was $1 million, or 11 cents per diluted share, excluding the fixed cost absorption charges. EBITDA for the second quarter turned positive at $1.8 million compared with a loss of $0.7 million in the first quarter and ahead of $1.4 million in the second quarter of last year. Adjusted EBITDA in the 2021 second quarter increased to $4.1 million versus $2.1 million in the first quarter and $2.9 million in the second quarter of 2020. Turning to our financial position, Managed working capital at June 30 totaled $116 million compared with $112.3 million at March 31st and $151 million at the end of the second quarter of 2020, which represents a $35 million reduction year over year. Inventory did increase 8% from the first quarter to $120.8 million as we gear up for a stronger second half in 2022. Receivables increased 3% from the first quarter, totaled $21.3 million, with improving day sales outstanding. Accounts payable increased 32% to $25.2 million, driven primarily by higher melt activity. Capital spending in the second quarter totaled $1.8 million, while depreciation and amortization totaled $4.8 million. The majority of the spend is for two strategic projects, including the addition of a state-of-the-art vacuum work remelt furnace to support growth in premium products, and an 18-ton crucible for our vacuum induction melting facility to further reduce operating costs as we scale up. Commissioning of the VAR is underway, and installation of the crucible is scheduled for the fourth quarter this year. We still expect to spend about $11 million in capital this year. Regarding cash management, total debt was $53 million in the second quarter, including a $10 million term loan under the Payroll Protection Program. That's up $1.4 million from the first quarter, but $19.5 million lower than the second quarter of 2020. I'm pleased to report that at the end of July, excuse me, at the beginning of July, we received full forgiveness of the $10 million PPP note. We will record this benefit in the third quarter labeled as extinguishment of debt in the amount of $10 million pre-tax or an estimated $1.10 per share. As a reminder, in the first quarter, we amended and restated our five-year, $120 million asset-based credit agreement. The new agreement includes a revolving credit facility of $105 million and increases the term loan facility to $15 million. Additionally, in conjunction with the amendment, we repaid our $15 million seller note obligation associated with the acquisition of our North Jackson facility and are now enjoying about $120,000 in quarterly interest savings as a result. All in all, we are in a firm financial footing to pursue our operating and growth strategies with upwards of $42 million in gross availability on our revolver. Let's spend a couple minutes on the end markets. Our aerospace sales were $21.3 million, or 55% of sales in the second quarter of 2021, compared with 22.2 million, or 60% of sales in the first quarter of 2021, and 37.2 million, or 71% of sales in the second quarter of 2020. Year-to-date aerospace sales were 43.5 million, or 58% of sales. We expect recovery in commercial aerospace demand to gain traction as we move into fall this year. Inventories have been leaned out of the supply chain. Airlines are recovering to pre-COVID levels and ordering new airplanes. Airplane makers are increasing build rates and beginning to place orders with suppliers. Let me expand on a few items. The uptake of COVID vaccinations has unleashed pent-up leisure travel, and domestic airline passenger traffic is taking off. You'll have to excuse the pun. Over the Fourth of July weekend, for example, TSA screened more than 10 million people, including 2.2 million passengers on Friday, July 2nd, which was the highest level since the start of the pandemic. Delta Airlines reports that their domestic leisure travel has fully recovered to 2019 levels, and they also see encouraging signs of improvement in business and international travel. The resurgence in air travel, low interest rates, and rising fuel costs are prompting airlines to place orders for new airplanes. The largest in the second quarter was from United Airlines, 270 single-aisle Boeing and Airbus planes. Ryanair and Alaska Airlines have also ordered additional 737 MAX jets. In total, Boeing reported 505 gross orders, while Airbus had 108 gross orders. The recovery and new orders from airlines have prompted the manufacturers to consider increasing aircraft build rates. In its updated production plans, Airbus confirmed an average production rate of 45 aircraft per month in the fourth quarter of 2021 for the A320 and told suppliers to prepare for a rate of 64 by the second quarter of 2023 and as many as 70 by the first quarter of 2024. They're also increasing the build rate for the A220 from five aircraft per month to six in early 2022. and a similar increase to the A350 by the autumn period of 2022. We'll see what Boeing has to say about build rates next week when they report. Unfortunately, all the news from Boeing has not been positive. UAE airline FlyDubai cut its order for the 737 MAX by 65 planes based upon its latest strategic planning, and Boeing has reported that the 787 production rate will temporarily be lowered from 5 to 4 going forward. Lastly, software issues on the 777X continue. Meanwhile, the aftermarket continues to improve and defense markets remain strong. Our service center customers continue to expect a strong metal pull in the supply chain for building new planes in the fourth quarter of 2021. Conversations about supply chain destocking have all but disappeared in aerospace as focus shifts to the timing and strength of the recovery. The heavy equipment market remained our second largest market in the second quarter of 2021, with sales of 9.3 million, or 24% of sales, representing an increase of 15% over the 2021 first quarter and 67% higher than the second quarter of 2020. Metal fabrication markets drive plate sales and a pickup in industrial manufacturing, as well as automotive demand and new model development, despite the chip shortage, drove our second quarter growth. Last week, the Federal Reserve reported that the second quarter total industrial production rose at an annual rate of 5.5%, with mining and materials especially strong. We expect plate sales to continue to be a major growth driver for us in the second half of the year as order entry for our plate products remains strong. The oil and gas end market remained our third largest end market in the second quarter with sales of 3.9 million, or 10% of sales, an increase of 28% from the first quarter sales, and up 9% from the 2020 second quarter. The oil and gas market continued to rebound in the second quarter, with U.S. crude prices rising more than 50% this year and the rotary rig count in North America more than doubling from last year. A Houston-based analyst put it this way, as oil prices continue to surge upwards, rig counts are being dragged along with them. After a couple of years of producers cutting expenditures as they focused on insuring up capital and investor returns, some have started increasing production. Halliburton characterized 2021 as a transition year on their call yesterday and called out continuing increases in production and spending in the second half as the start of a multi-year upcycle in the oil and gas industry. Looking at our backlog and order book and considering the products we've introduced for this market, we expect to see continued moderate growth through the balance of 2021. The general industrial market was our fourth largest market in the second quarter with sales of 2.3 million or 6% of sales. representing a sales increase of 9% from the first quarter of 2021, but 27% lower than the second quarter a year ago. Our general industrial category includes sales to the semiconductor as well as to the medical and general manufacturing markets. The sequential increase in our general industrial sales is mainly due to a resumption of purchasing by our semiconductor customers after an inventory adjustment in the first quarter. The current demand for chips is urgent and buying has been heavy. In its latest report, the Semiconductor Industry Association noted that global demand for semiconductors remained high in May, with sales increases both year-to-date and month-to-month in all major regional markets. While this segment can be a bit lumpy for us, we are back on track to see more normal sales levels for the balance of the year. Power generation market sales in the second quarter increased 17% to 1.4 million, or 4% of sales, compared with 1.2 million, or 3% of sales in the first quarter. but we're 34% below the second quarter of 2020. Maintenance demand continued to account for most of our PowerGen sales in the second quarter, as it has in recent years. While maintenance activities were interrupted by the pandemic in 2020, demand began to recover in the first quarter, and recovery continued in the second quarter. Springtime is normally a strong season for maintenance, and the unusually hot conditions this year have also increased demand. Universal, along with our customers, have been waiting for the eventual pickup in the new turbine market in the U.S. for some time. The business case for gas turbines was recently reiterated by a market analysis from Grandview Research, which noted that the size of the global gas turbine market is about $20 billion. It is expected to grow at a compound annual rate of 7% from 2021 through 2028. Among the factors cited propelling the market were government policies favoring the use of clean fuels for electricity generation, the role of natural gas-based power plants in reducing greenhouse gas emissions, the decline in gas prices, and the discovery of shale gas reserves. That said, we expect maintenance demand to continue to be the main source of our power-generated revenues, with recovery to continue for the balance of the year. So let me summarize. The second quarter was another quarter of improvement for Universal, and 2021 is playing out generally as we expect it. Sales are increasing gradually while incoming bookings accelerate to record levels during the quarter. Market demand is going in the right direction, and we saw sequential sales growth in each of our end markets except aerospace. Recovery in demand in aerospace is expected in the second half of the year, especially in the fourth quarter. Our initial expectation for 2021 was for consecutive quarterly improvement, with momentum building in the second half. With record bookings in the second quarter and a backlog increase of 71% to just shy of $100 million, we are well on track. We turned a corner in profitability with a positive gross profit of $2.2 million and a gross margin of 5.6% in the second quarter. We continue to achieve productivity improvements, reduce operating costs per pound, and control spending. We expect further improvement as volumes increase and a firming price environment unfolds. We are moving forward with our growth initiatives, including the addition of the new state-of-the-art VAR, as well as the 18-ton crucible to support our growth in premium alloys and reduce costs. We ended the quarter on a firm financial footing, enabling us to pursue our operating and strategic goals. Like all manufacturers, we are facing two challenges as our markets and operations recover from the pandemic. Labor shortages throughout the supply chain and increasing inflationary trends on parts of supplies and consumables. As we move through this year amid signs of recovery, I want to continue to recognize the central roles of our dedicated team, our supportive customers and shareholders, and our board. Without them, our continued progress would not be possible. That concludes my formal remarks. Sarah, we're ready to take some questions.