2/12/2025

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Greetings and welcome to the week of fourth quarter and full year 2024 earnings conference call. At this time, all participant lines are in a listen-only mode. A brief question and answer session will follow the formal presentation. If anyone should require operator assistance during the conference, please press star and zero on your telephone keypad. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Anthony Papon, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

speaker
Anthony Papon
Head of Investor Relations

Thank you, and good afternoon, everyone. Joining me on the call today are Bill Miller, FICO's Chief Executive Officer, and John Kiernan, our Chief Financial Officer. Today's earnings release and slide presentation to accompany today's webcast is available on the FICO website. To the extent that this call discusses expectations for future revenues, future earnings, market conditions, or otherwise make statements about the future, these forward-looking statements are based on management's current expectations and are subject to the risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from the statements made. These risks are discussed in detail in our Form 10-K Annual Report and other SEC filings. VECO does not undertake any obligation to update any forward-looking statements, including those made on this call, to reflect future events or circumstances after the date of such statements. Unless otherwise noted, management will discuss non-GAAP financial results. We encourage you to refer to our reconciliation between GAAP and non-GAAP results, which you can find in our press release and at the end of the earnings presentation. With that, I will turn the call over to our CEO, Bill Miller.

speaker
Bill Miller
Chief Executive Officer

Thank you, Anthony. 2024 was another successful year for Vico. We reached several important milestones, grew the business, delivered solid profitability, and strategically invested in several exciting long-term growth opportunities. Beginning with strategic milestones, as announced in a press release earlier today, we shipped an NSA system to a leading-edge semiconductor company for high-volume production of a two-nanometer gate-all-around logic chips. We also reached an agreement to ship an LSA evaluation to a second leading memory customer in 2025, and we shipped a 300 millimeter gallon silicon evaluation system to a tier one power device customer, with this customer having since provided positive feedback. Revenue from our semiconductor business reached another record in 2024, outperforming WFE growth for the fourth consecutive year. Our robust performance was primarily driven by record laser annealing revenue, including growth in LSA shipments to mature node customers, as well as leading edge shipments for high bandwidth memory and gate all around. Another key driver of growth came from wet processing, where our system is production tool of record and 3D packaging for AI. While investing for growth is core to our long-term strategy, expanding profitability is also important. In 2024, we successfully grew non-GAAP operating income and VPS, while continuing to invest in our largest SAM expansion opportunities. Switching gears to our full-year financial highlights, VECO delivered top and bottom line growth, with results coming in above the midpoint of our updated 2024 guidance. Revenue totaled $717 million, growing 8% from the prior year, led by a 13% year-over-year growth in our semiconductor business. Non-GAAP operating income grew 6% to $116 million and diluted non-GAAP EPS grew to $1.74. Now for a look at our Q4 highlights. Revenue in the fourth quarter totaled $182 million, increasing 5% year-over-year. Non-GAAP operating income $27 million and non-GAAP EPS 41 cents. Our semiconductor business delivered another solid quarter of revenue highlighted by record laser annealing revenue, including shipments to two leading edge customers gate all around nodes. I'll now provide an overview of VECO's role in the semiconductor manufacturing process, as well as an update on key technologies driving business today. VECO technologies are critical for several leading edge semi manufacturing process steps. Leading-edge customer roadmaps require the most advanced annealing solutions to address scaling challenges associated with shrinking geometries and new architectures. Device scaling with incumbent technologies is becoming more challenging, and as a result, the number of steps available to laser annealing in both logic and memory is increasing. VECO is the market leader in laser annealing, with our laser spike annealing system qualified as production tool of record for leading logic customers and one tier one memory customer. Our recently launched next generation NSA system expands laser annealing capabilities to enable precise anneals at a nanosecond dwell time and is under evaluation at two advanced logic customers for several new applications. Beko is also the industry leader in ion beam deposition for EUV mask blanks, with our IBD EUV system enabling deposition of defect-free films for EUV mass blank production. Our ion beam deposition technology is critical to the industry's roadmap and is expanding to adjacent mass blank steps as customers continue to explore new use cases. The growing need for energy efficient compute is driving the SEMI roadmap to consider new materials and technologies to scale optimize performance, and reduce power consumption. As device geometries continue to shrink, incumbent technologies are struggling to lower resistivity, driving tier one logic and memory customers to consider new solutions. VECO's recently launched IBD300 system differentiates itself from incumbent technologies through its ability to preferentially deposit low resistance metals. This can result in improved thin film properties and lower resistivity for critical metals in logic and memory, which directly impact device performance, speed, and battery life. Looking ahead, we're highly focused on working with Tier 1 customers to integrate our technology into their manufacturing processes and evaluate new applications. In advanced packaging, our wet processing system is production tool of record at a leading foundry, HBM manufacturer, and OSATS. Our system's ability to support challenging process capabilities has enabled our strong position in 3D packaging for AI, which drove strong growth in 2024 and expectations for growth to accelerate in 2025. And in advanced packaging lithography, capacity expansions in the AI and mobile markets have led to expectations of a recovery in 2025 driven by a broad range of customers. Our strategy in the semiconductor market has been focused on expanding our served available market by investing in core technologies to enable industry inflections. VECO technologies have exposure to leading edge inflections in logic, memory, and advanced packaging, enabling technology transitions such as gate all around, high bandwidth memory, EUV lithography, and 3D packaging for AI. In annealing, We forecast our SAM to grow from approximately $800 million to around $1.3 billion. We expect this to be driven by an increase in laser annealing intensity as logic and memory customers adopt laser annealing to address new challenges. In ion beam deposition, we project our SAM to grow to approximately $350 million for high value front end semi applications requiring critical film performance. Growth in AI is accelerating adoption of new technologies and materials that enable device scaling and address the growing need for energy efficient compute performance. We believe our IBD 300 system has unique capabilities that can address each of these high value challenges. In ion beam deposition for EUV mass blanks, we project our SAM to increase to over $120 million as ASML expands EUV and high NA capacity, and customers adopt our systems for new applications. And in advanced packaging, we see SAM expansion opportunities for our enabling wet processing technology for an increasing number of applications supporting AI and high-performance computing. As we look ahead, we believe our portfolio of enabling technologies For key inflections, positions are semi-business to outperform WFE over the long term. I'd now like to provide additional detail on our evaluation program. Our evaluation program is essential to expanding our position in logic and memory, and we're investing in several evaluation systems to capture our largest SAM growth opportunities. Many evaluations are targeting several applications, which can result in follow-on business between $30 to $60 million per application win, assuming 100,000 wafer starts per month. While the timing of adoption by system, customer, and market will vary, customers are excited about the value proposition our technologies offer, and we're highly focused on executing. With that, I'll turn it over to John for a financial update.

speaker
John Kiernan
Chief Financial Officer

Thank you, Bill. Starting with revenue for the year, Revenue came in at $717 million, increasing 8% over the prior year. Our semiconductor business delivered $467 million in revenue, up 13% year over year, and comprising 65% of revenue. Growth in the semiconductor market was largely driven by our laser annealing and advanced packaging wet processing systems. Compound semiconductor revenue totaled $78 million, a decline from the prior year representing 11% of revenue. Data storage revenue totaled $99 million, increasing 12% year-over-year and comprising 14% of total revenue. And scientific and other revenue was $74 million, a slight decline from the prior year, making up 10% of revenue. Moving to revenue by region. China comprised 36% of revenue, up from the prior year driven by growth in sales to semiconductor customers. Our Asia Pacific region, excluding China, made up 32% of revenue, led by shipments to semiconductor customers. United States totaled 23% of revenue, primarily driven by data storage customers, and lastly, EMEA was 9% of revenue for the year. Our order backlog ended the year at approximately $410 million, down approximately $80 million from the prior year, primarily attributed to our data storage business. Now looking at our full year 2024 non-GAAP operating results. Gross margin came in at 43.3%, relatively consistent with the prior year. Operating expenses increased 8% to $194 million, primarily driven by an increase in R&D investment. Operating income increased 6% from the prior year to $116 million. And net income increased to $104 million with tax expense of $15 million, yielding an effective tax rate of 12%, an increase from 10% in the prior year. Diluted EPS increased to $1.74 for the year on 61 million shares. I'll now provide selected GAAP full year data. Amortization expense was approximately $7 million, our equity comp expense was $36 million, depreciation $18 million, and net interest income was approximately $2 million. GAAP net income of $74 million included a $28 million impairment charge resulting from our silicon carbide business not meeting our market expectations. This charge was offset by a $21 million gain from a reduction in the estimate of contingent consideration and $12 million in related tax benefits, resulting in a net benefit of approximately $5 million. Turning to Q4 revenue by market and geography. Revenue came in at $182 million, up 5% from the prior year and down 1% sequentially. In line with our prior forecast, semiconductor revenue declined sequentially after a quarterly record in Q3, comprising 62% of revenue. In the compound semiconductor market, revenue increased from the prior quarter to $23 million, totaling 13% of revenue. Data storage revenue declined to $14 million, comprising 8%. And as previously expected, scientific and other revenue increased to $33 million from $12 million in the prior quarter, which included shipments for quantum computing and research applications. Scientific and other made up 18% of revenue during the quarter. Turning to quarterly revenue by region, the percentage of revenue from China increased to 39% due to an increase in semiconductor sales. Revenue from the Asia Pacific region excluding China was 31%. The United States came in at 19%. And lastly, EMEA was 11%. Switching gears to our non-GAAP quarterly results. Gross margin total approximately 41.5% below our guidance, driven by shift in product mix and additional spending for our evaluation programs. Operating expenses total $48 million at the low end of guidance. Income tax expense was approximately $4 million, resulting in an effective tax rate of approximately 14%. Net income came in at approximately $24 million, and diluted EPS was 41 cents on 60 million shares. Now moving to the balance sheet and cash flow highlights. We ended the quarter with cash and short-term investments of $345 million, a sequential increase of $24 million. From a working capital perspective, our accounts receivable decreased by $35 million to $97 million, primarily resulting from the timing of when customer payments were due. Inventory increased by $5 million to $247 million, and accounts payable declined by $6 million to $44 million. Customer deposits included within contract liabilities on the balance sheet decreased by $11 million to $49 million. Cash flow from operations increased from the prior quarter to $28 million, bringing our total for the year to $64 million. And CapEx totaled $5 million during the quarter and $18 million for the year. Turning to our Q1 outlook. Q1 revenue is expected to be between $155 and $175 million. We expect gross margin of approximately 42%. OPEX between $47 and $49 million, net income between $16 and $22 million, and diluted EPS between 26 and 36 cents on 61 million shares. Turning to some additional color beyond Q1, based on market conditions and our visibility, we expect Q2 revenue to be in a similar range to Q1 levels. I'll now provide qualitative commentary for each of our markets. Beginning with the semiconductor market, we continue to expect a decline in investment from mature node customers in China. Outside of China, growth in AI and high performance computing is driving an increase in leading edge investment in areas such as gate all around, high bandwidth memory, and advanced packaging. As a result, we expect AI revenue to grow to 20% or more of revenue in 2025 from approximately 10% in 2024. We continue to advance our roadmaps in laser annealing, ion beam deposition, and advanced packaging, and are well positioned to take advantage of growth in leading edge investment. In the compound semiconductor market, we continue to see opportunities in solar and photonics, which provide potential for revenue growth beginning in late 2025 into 2026. We also remain excited for the potential to expand in GaN power without 300 millimeter GaN on silicon solution. In data storage, our expectations are for approximately $60 to $70 million decline in revenue in 2025. And in scientific, we'll continue to see strength in research areas like quantum computing, which have the potential to provide growth in 2025. Before we turn the call over to Q&A, I'd like to highlight why we believe VECO is a compelling investment opportunity. First, some industry analysts and leading equipment providers project growth of the semi-industry to over $1 trillion in the 2030 timeframe, contributing to expectations for long-term growth in wafer fab equipment spending. Second, VECO has a portfolio of enabling technologies that are increasingly critical for several leading-edge inflections. Third, we believe our exposure to several high-growth areas of the market can enable our SAM to grow faster than growth in WFE spending. And fourth, we expect our investment strategy and execution to generate long-term value for VECO shareholders. With that, I'll now turn the call over to the operator to open up Q&A.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question and answer session. If you'd like to ask a question, please press star and one on your telephone keypad. A confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue. You may press star and two if you'd like to remove your question from the queue. For participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the star keys. Ladies and gentlemen, we will wait for a moment while we poll for questions. The first question comes from the line of Charles Shi from Needham and Company. Please go ahead.

speaker
Charles Shi
Analyst at Needham and Company

Good afternoon. A couple of questions. I want to start with China. I think you guys provided that qualitatively China will decline this year. That's the same view you've had for a while. I want to ask about Q1, because all the peers who reported before you, some of them seem to be guiding to China in Q1, but some are probably seeing more of the immediate drop of the China revenue. So what do you see into Q1? Since I believe China probably accounts for a good amount of your backlog, supposedly you have good visibility of how much China can decline. Mind if you give us a little more than quantitative and anything you can provide quantitatively, that would be great.

speaker
John Kiernan
Chief Financial Officer

Sure, Charles. I'm happy to do so. So we do have good visibility into the first half of China and backlog, and we expect our China revenue in the first half of 2025 to be about 25 to 30% of total revenue down from last year. China for the full year was about 36% of our total revenue, with that slightly more weighted to Q1 than Q2.

speaker
Charles Shi
Analyst at Needham and Company

Got it. Thanks, John. That's very helpful, Collin. The other question I do want to ask you more on the advanced packaging side I did notice you talked about the wet processing product that looks like you already saw strong growth for last year. You think it will accelerate in 2025. Mind if you provide us a little bit more color on what's driving that and maybe a little more quantitatively Do you see more of the acceleration in the first half, in the more immediate quarter, or you're seeing something more coming up in the second half of the year?

speaker
Bill Miller
Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, good afternoon, Charles. We're really excited about the advanced packaging opportunity. We see this as an opportunity doubling in 25 over 24, and that's largely driven by wet processing. So we're really kind of benefiting from capacity expansions at a leading foundry, an HBM manufacturer, as well as multiple OSAPs. And so, you know, we see this as a multi-year opportunity. And also in Litho, our business in 24 uh was pretty modest and we're seeing that business uh pick up with a lot of breadth and advanced packaging as well so as i said um our advanced packaging including wet processing predominantly and secondarily uh litho is uh is doubling uh so maybe from 75 million to 150 million

speaker
Charles Shi
Analyst at Needham and Company

That's a full year comment, right? 75 to... Yeah, yeah, yeah. Okay. Any color?

speaker
Bill Miller
Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, I would say, John, it's ramping, but it's going to probably continue to grow from Q1 into Q2 and Q3, I think, through the year.

speaker
John Kiernan
Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, and so we enter the year with a good backlog. And maybe, you know, Charles, this ties back to your first question, You know a little bit as well about visibility, you know into the backlog we're entering 2025 with virtually the same backlog and semiconductor. Then we that we started the year with so the backlog is flat, but the composition of the backlog is different, so at the beginning of the year, we had a higher concentration of backlog in with our China customers for their mature business. As we enter 2025, a higher concentration and an increase in the semi-backlog comes from area like two nanometer gate all around and advanced packaging. So we've got a reasonable visibility there as well.

speaker
Charles Shi
Analyst at Needham and Company

Thanks. I really appreciate the color. Thanks. I'll be back in the queue. Thanks, Charles. Thank you, Charles.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Rick Schaefer from Oppenheimer. Please go ahead.

speaker
Rick Schaefer
Analyst at Oppenheimer

Hi, this is on the line for Rick. Thanks for taking the question. Congrats on your NSA shipment. This customer looks like it's separate from the other two customers that you currently have on the NSA evaluation program. So I was wondering, has this customer been on the eval program before? And what gave them the comfort and the decision to make this purchase ahead of the other two that are still on eval?

speaker
Bill Miller
Chief Executive Officer

So this shipment came as part of a multi-tool laser annealing system order from this customer in 2024. their goal is to enter the market kind of at the two nanometer gate all around. And so this is a new customer for us, but we did not provide an evaluation tool. So this was a straight sale. So we're now qualified at all for, if you will, advanced logic customers for gate all around nodes for LSA. And we expect growth in gate all around uh, to, to really ramp in 2025, uh, with these customers. And I guess I'll just circle back on the NSA eval since you mentioned it, uh, those evals are going well and we're actually looking, uh, the customers are looking at us for, uh, multiple applications.

speaker
Rick Schaefer
Analyst at Oppenheimer

Great. Thanks. Um, I appreciate that. Um, I just wanted to go back to the question on China. know in the past you guys commented on seeing china exposure normalizing to around 20 percent or getting back there um so in light of the the export restrictions and and everything the talks of paris so i guess you're not seeing any direct impacts on that in the first half of the year so is it fair to say that you're you're seeing more of that coming in in the second half of the year and anything has changed with that 20 china bogey could it be lower thanks

speaker
John Kiernan
Chief Financial Officer

So thanks for the question, Wei. So what we've seen from changes in regulations, it really didn't have an impact to our near-term view on China. We didn't have backlog with customers that were added to the entity list for systems backlog. Nor did any regulations come out that changed licensing requirements for our products. So in the near term, you know, not an impact. Long-term, you know, view of, you know, regulations, how regulations may change and, you know, what the, you know, impact there is. Our view on China had been that we were seeing less of these new, you know, opportunities or new fabs and new projects, you know, coming, you know, being funded or invested in. And that's what had us say that we see uh, business, um, you know, slowing down for China as, uh, equipment purchases over the last couple of years, uh, get, you know, you know, digested and that we have good visibility for about, you know, um, you know, half a year. So, um, we see, um, as I said in an earlier question that we see about 25 to 30% of our total revenue coming from China in the first half of the year and a lesser number in the second half of the year.

speaker
Rick Schaefer
Analyst at Oppenheimer

Okay, thank you.

speaker
John Kiernan
Chief Financial Officer

Thank you, Wei.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Mark Miller from Benchmark. Please go ahead.

speaker
Mark Miller
Analyst at Benchmark

I just wonder if you could provide some more color on memory, specifically high bandwidth memory. And also, LAM reported very strong sequential improvements in shipments to NAND customers. I'm just wondering what you're seeing, if you're seeing anything in NAND.

speaker
Bill Miller
Chief Executive Officer

We don't have any position in NAND, Mark. I would say we're at the point with our nanosecond annealing system where we're doing some preliminary demos in NAND, but we haven't placed an eval at this time, so really not much exposure there. And in high bandwidth memory, we actually have – we are – production tool of record with our LSA systems with one DRAM customer, and we've been able to win their logic die and then the peripheral logic on each level of the high bandwidth memory stack. I think we just announced on our call here that we have an agreement with the second DRAM customer, and we'll be placing an eval probably mid-year, mid-2025. Thank you. And I would say, as I look at, you know, as the business continues with HBM in 2025, and we were shipping volume in 2024 as well.

speaker
Mark Miller
Analyst at Benchmark

Okay. Thank you.

speaker
Bill Miller
Chief Executive Officer

Thank you, Mark.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Thank you. Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Gus Richard from Northland Capital. Please go ahead.

speaker
Gus Richard
Analyst at Northland Capital

Yes. Thanks for taking my questions. On the LSA, I want to make sure I understand. Have you been qualified for gate all around with LSA?

speaker
Bill Miller
Chief Executive Officer

Yes. All the customers were qualified for their gate all around.

speaker
Gus Richard
Analyst at Northland Capital

Okay. And then is NSA, you know, being looked at by the logic guys for is the incremental application backside power?

speaker
Bill Miller
Chief Executive Officer

They're looking at a number of applications for more kind of extending more of the more traditional front side annealing. And they've also looked at backside as well. They're looking at a few different applications there. And I guess just to circle back on your gate all around question there, you know, when we look at growth drivers in 25, we see gate all around really starting to ramp. And we think gate all around has the potential to double for us in 25 over 24 that, you know, would compensate for some of the China headwinds that John was mentioning a little earlier.

speaker
Gus Richard
Analyst at Northland Capital

Got it. And then just in terms of your hard disk drive revenue at this point, I'm assuming that that is just purely spares and service.

speaker
Bill Miller
Chief Executive Officer

Yes. Yep. Correct. That's, you know, we didn't really have any significant systems bookings in 24. And given our lead time, that window is closed on 25 systems revenue.

speaker
Gus Richard
Analyst at Northland Capital

Got it. And then I guess, you know, just Because nobody else will ask. On scientific and other, I mean, there's always a budget flush in the fourth quarter. You had a very strong quarter there. You know, are you kind of looking at a similar revenue range? Or, you know, is quantum computing really starting to drive a little more incremental demand for, you know, tools that address that market?

speaker
Bill Miller
Chief Executive Officer

Gus, I would say we are seeing an increase in quantum computing activity year over year. So these are larger systems, and so they're going to show up kind of lumpy in our numbers, whether we have a system or two or we don't, on top of kind of our base scientific business. So we're forecasting our scientific segment to grow in 2025.

speaker
Gus Richard
Analyst at Northland Capital

Okay, and I'm assuming that's molecular beam epitaxy?

speaker
Bill Miller
Chief Executive Officer

Correct, yep. And, you know, they're kind of Frankenstein-type tools. It may have an ALD off the side of it, but largely they're predominantly MBE with modifications.

speaker
Gus Richard
Analyst at Northland Capital

Got it, got it. So the price tag is more than single-digit millions?

speaker
Bill Miller
Chief Executive Officer

When they're all packaged together, they can be – they can be over 10 million. They might come in as separate bits, but yeah, they're big opportunities. That's why they're pretty lumpy.

speaker
Gus Richard
Analyst at Northland Capital

Got it. All right. Thank you very much.

speaker
Bill Miller
Chief Executive Officer

Thank you, Gus.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Dave Dooley from Steelhead Securities. Please go ahead.

speaker
Dave Dooley
Analyst at Steelhead Securities

Yeah. Thank you very much for taking my questions. I guess just to start with, you know, you talked about the first half of the year. Could you give us an idea what you think for total revenue is first half versus a second half? And then the same thing for semi, um, that would be very helpful.

speaker
John Kiernan
Chief Financial Officer

So, so yeah, so, so Dave, let me, uh, let me try to cover that, you know, by the, the markets, um, you know, for the, for the full year. Um, and, um, And I'll start with data storage. So as we indicated, we expect that the data storage revenue to be down about $60 to $70 million year on year representing we don't have expectations for shipping systems to customers and it's just a service and aftermarket business there. If I look at the semiconductor market, there's really, as we've described on this call so far, really two elements to the semiconductor market for And we do see the opportunity for that market to have growth in 2025. On the one side, we have expectation that China business, you know, will be down. On the other side, Bill has mentioned that we have expectation that our advanced packaging business and our business supporting gate all around has the opportunity to double. So you take that into consideration, we see the opportunity for growth in the semiconductor business, despite the China headwinds. And then in the compound semis side, we are coming off low volumes in 2024. We do see some opportunities in solar and photonics providing opportunity for revenue growth in the second half of the year in the compound semi-side. And as Bill just mentioned, the expectation with strength in areas like quantum computing on the scientific side that we do see opportunity for growth there. So I'd say, Dave, we're not making a quantitative call on the full year and a first half versus you know, second half there. But that's our view of the markets for 2025. Okay.

speaker
Dave Dooley
Analyst at Steelhead Securities

And essentially, you've already kind of taken the downdraft and the hard disk drive business. So now all these moving parts really comes down to the semi-growth outside of China versus the semi-decline inside of China.

speaker
Bill Miller
Chief Executive Officer

Is that kind of... Correct. And I think when you... When you meld those together, our view, that's flat to up. Okay. And it's clear the first half. The second half, it's not totally clear yet how that's going to go.

speaker
Dave Dooley
Analyst at Steelhead Securities

Okay. And then, you know, there's been a lot of, you know, chatter on HBM spending. Some customers seem to have been qualified or are moving forward with spending, and some others aren't. In total, what would you expect your HBM business to do in 2025 versus 2024? I can't remember if you've actually quantified how big it is. If you could help us understand how meaningful it is, that would also be great.

speaker
Bill Miller
Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, I would say we've been shipping high-bandwidth memory laser annealing tools to one customer where we are qualified. And our view is that will remain robust for 2025. And as I said, we're just entered into an eval agreement with the second customer, and that tool is going to ship in middle of 2025. So that's not going to have any revenue impact on 2025. So I would say our HBM revenue is nearly flat and steady with this one customer.

speaker
Dave Dooley
Analyst at Steelhead Securities

Okay, and then as far as the NSA evaluation or really when you start to see NSA ramping into volume production, are some of these applications, help us understand how much of it is truly additive and how much is somewhat candlestick from applications that you've already won that would have been addressed by an LSA tool?

speaker
Bill Miller
Chief Executive Officer

A lot of the, I would say, 80 plus percent are probably incremental. There's a lot of applications where we're doing material modification because we're only modifying the top shallow surface of the structure and not heating up the whole structure. So the way the machine operates is a lot different than our traditional laser annealing system. What we are seeing though in some gate all around applications where there'll be an incremental step for gate all around annealing that could be nanosecond annealing and we'll keep the laser annealing steps. There'll be possibly an incremental step there. So I would say to the first order, it's largely incremental, not cannibalistic.

speaker
Rick Schaefer
Analyst at Oppenheimer

Okay, thank you.

speaker
Bill Miller
Chief Executive Officer

Thank you, Dave.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Mark Miller from Benchmark. Please go ahead.

speaker
Mark Miller
Analyst at Benchmark

I just want to revisit where you're at on the ion beam for thin tungsten films. And I believe you were two customers. Anything new there?

speaker
Bill Miller
Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, we have two tools at DRAM Memory Makers. We're continuing to work with them. We're probably going to continue that through 2025. There's a lot of customer engagement. And as you know, Mark, this is a pretty exciting opportunity to put the fourth deposition technology into the FAB, which is pretty exciting. And as I said, the customers are engaged. We're jointly working together through integration issues, downstream integration issues to incorporate the ion beam deposition system into their production line. So I would say I expect that evaluation to continue throughout 2025 at both customers with high engagement.

speaker
Mark Miller
Analyst at Benchmark

Can you give us an estimate of the potential for following orders in that business?

speaker
Bill Miller
Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, we see, you know, for memory type applications per 100,000 wafer starts, it's probably $30 to $40 million per application per node per customer.

speaker
Mark Miller
Analyst at Benchmark

Thank you.

speaker
Bill Miller
Chief Executive Officer

Thank you, Mark.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Dave Dooley from Steelhead Securities. Please go ahead.

speaker
Dave Dooley
Analyst at Steelhead Securities

Yeah, I wanted to slip one more question in here regarding the gross margins through the first half of the year and perhaps in the second half, given the mix that you expect from all your segments. You sound like you have a pretty good idea about the directional pieces of the business. How should we think about gross margins progressing through the year?

speaker
John Kiernan
Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, so that's a good question. Thanks, Dave. Yeah, we expect, you know, we ended 2024 for the full year with 43%, you know, gross margin. And our expectation for 2024 that gross margins would be more in the 42% range. And the principal, you know, reason for that is as we see lower revenues coming from China customers, and data storage customers, that gives us a mix headwind to gross margins because they typically have higher gross margins for those product lines. And then we see additional business coming from the advanced packaging area and the back end typically has a bit lower margins there. We have a number of gross margin improvement initiatives that we have going on to partially offset the impact of the product mix as we improve manufacturing efficiencies, efficiencies in installing, warranting our tools, and other efficiency objectives there. But as we see it now, Dave, we're seeing gross margins closer to the 42% range coming into 2025.

speaker
Dave Dooley
Analyst at Steelhead Securities

And do you think that 42% goes down with the mix of business as far as China dropping and there's basically no hard to strive business, systems business?

speaker
John Kiernan
Chief Financial Officer

Well, that's what I'm saying. That's the principal reason that we're seeing and calling about a 42% gross margin for 2025 coming down from about 43% in 2024. Okay.

speaker
Dave Dooley
Analyst at Steelhead Securities

Thank you.

speaker
John Kiernan
Chief Financial Officer

You're welcome. Thank you, Dave.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Thank you. As there are no further questions, I now hand the conference over to Bill Miller, CEO, for his closing comments.

speaker
Bill Miller
Chief Executive Officer

I'd like to thank our customers and shareholders along with the VECO team for their continued support. Have a great evening.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Bye. Thank you. The conference of VECO has now concluded. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect your line.

Disclaimer

This conference call transcript was computer generated and almost certianly contains errors. This transcript is provided for information purposes only.EarningsCall, LLC makes no representation about the accuracy of the aforementioned transcript, and you are cautioned not to place undue reliance on the information provided by the transcript.

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