8/8/2024

speaker
Operator

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Vera Mobility Second Quarter 2024 earnings call. At this time, call lines are in a listen-only mode. Following the presentation, we will conduct a question and answer session. Instructions will be provided at that time for you to get up for a question. If anyone has any difficulties hearing the conference, please press star 0 for operator assistance at any time. I would not like to turn the conference over to Marcus Enlick, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

speaker
Marcus Enlick

Thank you. Good afternoon and welcome to Vera Mobility Second Quarter 2024 earnings call. Today, we'll be discussing the results announced in our press release issued after the market closed along with our earnings presentation, which is available on the Investor Relations section of our website at .veramobility.com. With me on the call are David Roberts, Vera Mobility's Chief Executive Officer, and Craig Conte, our Chief Financial Officer. David will begin with prepared remarks, followed by Craig, and then will open up the call for Q&A. Management may make forward-looking statements during the call regarding future events, anticipated future trends, and the anticipated future performance of the company. We caution you that such statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties that are difficult to predict. Actual results may differ materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements due to a variety of risk factors. These factors are described in our SEC filings. Please refer to our earnings press release and investor presentation for Vera Mobility's complete forward-looking statement disclosure. Any forward-looking statements that we make on this call are based on our beliefs and assumptions today, and we do not undertake any obligation to update forward-looking statements. Finally, during today's call, we'll refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures. A reconciliation of these non-GAAP measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measure is included in our earnings release, quarterly earnings presentation, and investor presentation, all of which can be found on our website at .veraMobility.com. With that, I'll turn the call over to David.

speaker
David

Thank you. We had a strong second quarter with revenue, adjusted EBITDA, and earnings directly in line with our internal expectations. The businesses are performing as expected, and we're poised to have a strong second half of the year. Travel demand remains robust, and we anticipate continued strength through the balance of the year. -to-date TSA passenger volumes, as of June 30, stands at 106% of 2023 volume for the same period, driven by strong consumer and business demand, with the latter demonstrating potential for more growth. In our government solutions business, the bid pipeline for automated enforcement is strong and growing. Second quarter contract awards represented approximately $12 million in incremental ARR at full run rate, bringing the -to-date incremental ARR up to $22 million. I'll explain on our awards and bids opportunities later in my prepared remarks. Transitioning back to our second quarter financial highlights, consolidated revenue growth was 9%, adjusted EBITDA increased 8%, and adjusted EPS increased 7% over the prior year period, demonstrating the predictable strength of our portfolio of businesses. Based on our -to-date financial performance and our outlook for the remainder of the year, we are reaffirming full year 2024 guidance, which Craig will elaborate on in his remarks. Now, moving on to our business unit operations. The commercial services team delivered outstanding results driven by strong and durable domestic travel trends, and our continued strong performance in the fleet management business. Second quarter revenue of $104 million grew 10% over the prior year quarter, and adjusted EBITDA margins of 67% were up about 210 basis points over last year due primarily to the strength of rental car tolling. Second quarter TSA throughput volume was about 106% of 2023, driving strong growth in adopted rental agreements and tolls incurred, all of which resulted in an 8% increase in rack tolling revenue. Additionally, our FMC business generated revenue of $18 million for the quarter, representing 18% growth over the prior year period, primarily driven by enrollment of new vehicles and increased tolling from FMC customers. Moving on to government solutions. Recurring service revenue, which reflects 94% of total revenue for the quarter grew 8% over the same period last year. The recurring service revenue growth was driven by program expansion from existing customers and new cities implementing photo enforcement efforts to improve road safety. To this point outside of New York City, we drove 14% service revenue growth due to these factors. Total revenue, including international product sales were up about 11% over the prior year quarter. Next, I'll elaborate on the second quarter award activity I highlighted earlier and provide an update on a strong quarter for legislative action supporting automated enforcement. As I mentioned, we won contract awards representing about $12 million of ARR in the second quarter, bringing the year to date incremental ARR total to $22 million. Of note, we were awarded contracts in California for red light enforcement, representing about $3 million in ARR. We are highly engaged in California and are excited to compete for impending speed program pilots. Other notable awards include speed enforcement in Doral, Florida, Tempe, Arizona, and several locations across New Zealand, all of which represent about $5 million in total incremental ARR. I'm also pleased to report several authorizations and expansions of legislation to advanced automated enforcement, that advanced automated enforcement across the US. In Hawaii, the existing red light program was expanded and speed enforcement was newly authorized. Minnesota authorized red light, work zone speed, and school zone speed pilot programs. Additionally, in Vermont, a work zone speed pilot program was authorized and finally in Oregon, the state passed authorization for school bus stop arm enforcement. This is truly an exciting time for our industry as state and local governments embrace technology to solve our most important traffic safety challenges. Over the past 18 months, we have seen the total addressable market for automated enforcement in the US grow by about $125 million with the potential to further expand to greater than 250 million as further legislation allows. Moving on to New York City, in July, the city's Department of Transportation released its RFP for operating and maintaining its automated traffic enforcement programs. The RFP outlines the agency's requirements and expectations for qualified single vendor that will run the current programs with the ability to support back office services for all existing use cases and any potential future expansions. With New York City being among our most important clients, we look forward to submitting our proposal on or before the deadline. Next, a brief update on T2 systems. We generated total revenue of approximately $21 million for the second quarter. As we anticipated, one-time product revenue declined about $1 million compared to the prior year quarter due to a structural transition away from hardware and towards software and mobile solutions. As product revenue decelerates, we also experience a decline in one-time professional services revenue. Recurring SaaS revenue grew mid-single digits over the prior year quarter. Adjusted EBITDA was $3 million for the quarter. We anticipate this quarter to be the low point for adjusted EBITDA dollars and margins and to increase sequentially over the balance of the year. As we look to the future of the urban mobility market, we're confident that cities will continue to seek out technological solutions to help address their transportation challenges. We recently partnered with survey company Wakefield Research to learn what municipal technology leaders were focused on with their technology investments. More than half of these leaders have reducing road safety incidents as a top three priority for tech-based solutions. When asked which AI-driven options for traffic monitoring and enforcement would you most want for your jurisdiction, more than half of the responses identified safety needs and high fatality corridors in their top three. We remain steadfast in our optimism that technology solutions are going to be a top of mind investment for our urban mobility customers. Next, turning to capital allocation, we maintain net leverage at 2.4 times providing optionality for future capital deployment. In the second quarter, we repurchased two million shares from a selling stockholder, leaving slightly less than $50 million under our stock buyback open authorization. We also remain active at our evaluation of M&A opportunities. The M&A market and specifically within smart mobility continues to present opportunities for investment. As we look to adjacent market expansion to broaden our portfolio companies, we continually scan the landscape for markets where our technology and experience can be leveraged into new vectors for growth. Adjacencies within urban mobility, government software and public safety are examples of markets that we have begun to look more deeply into. In summary, we've had a great first half to the year. We're doing exactly what we said we do in terms of financial performance. Additionally, travel demand remains robust and the bid pipeline is strong and growing. This is a great business with a bright future and I look forward to sharing additional updates as we continue to execute against our growth strategy. Craig, I'll turn it over to you to guide us through our financial results in the 2024 guidance discussion.

speaker
Craig

Thank you, David and hello everyone. Appreciate you joining us on the call today. Let's turn the slide four, which outlines the key financial measures for the consolidated business for the second quarter. We're pleased with our Q2 performance, which included 8% recurring services revenue growth and 9% total revenue. The recurring service revenue growth was driven by strong travel demand in the commercial services business and recurring revenue growth outside of New York City in the government solutions business. At the segment level, commercial services revenue grew 10% year over year. Government solutions services revenue increased by 8% over the prior year, while Q2 systems SaaS and services revenue was flat over the second quarter of last year. Product revenue increased to 10 million for the quarter driven primarily by an increase in international product sales and government solutions. GS contributed 6 million and Q2 delivered about 4 million and product sales overall for the quarter. Our consolidated adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $102 million, an increase of approximately 8% versus last year. We reported net income of $34 million for the quarter, including a tax provision of about 13 million, representing an effective tax rate of 28%. This rate includes certain discrete items which favorably impacted the tax rate for the quarter. For the full year, we are anticipating an approximate 30% tax rate. GAP EPS was 20 cents per share for the second quarter as compared to 13 cents per share for the prior year period. Adjusted EPS, which excludes amortization, stock-based compensation and other non-recurring items was 31 cents per share for the second quarter this year compared to 29 cents per share in the second quarter of 2023. Adjusted EPS grew 7% over the prior year quarter despite nearly 16 million additional shares in the share count due to the completion of our DSPAC process during the second and third quarters of 2023. Cash flows provided by operating activities totaled 40 million and we delivered 26 million of free cash flow for the quarter, which was below our quarterly run rate due to the normal seasonal timing of cash tax payments, as well as collections timing amongst several large customers. Regarding the latter, approximately 16 million in collections were received in the first three days of July and will benefit third quarter free cash flow as a result. Turning to slide five, we've generated 384 million of adjusted EBITDA on approximately 853 million of revenue for the trailing 12 months, representing a 45% adjusted EBITDA margin. Additionally, over the trailing 12 months, we've generated 139 million of adjusted free cash flow for a 36% conversion of adjusted EBITDA on a weighted average base of approximately 169 million shares. We expect a large sequential increase in free cash flow for the third quarter, followed by a modest decline in the fourth quarter, all of which is expected to drive a 40% free cash flow conversion of adjusted EBITDA for 2024 in line with our full year guidance. Next, I'll walk through the second quarter performance in each of our three business segments, beginning with commercial services on slide six. CS year over year revenue growth was 10% in the second quarter. Rack tolling revenue increased 8% or about $6 million over the same period last year, driven by robust travel volume and increased rental volume. Additionally, our FMC business grew 18% or about $3 million year over year, driven by the enrollment of new vehicles and tolling growth from existing and newly enrolled FMC customers. Commercial services adjusted EBITDA margins expanded about 210 basis points to nearly 67% driven by volume leverage as the summer driving season began ramping up. Turning to slide seven, government solutions had strong recurring revenue growth in the quarter, driven by 14% service revenue growth outside of New York City. Total revenue growth grew 11% over the prior year quarter bolstered by strong international product sales in addition to the solid non-New York City service revenue growth. Adjusted EBITDA was 30 million for the quarter, representing margins of 31%. The reduction in margins versus the prior year is primarily due to increased spending on business development efforts. The non-capitalized portion of our platform investments and revenue mix as a result of an increased international product sales. Let's turn to slide eight for a view of T2 Systems, which is our parking solution site. We generated revenue of 21 million and adjusted EBITDA of approximately 3 million for the quarter. SAS and services sales were flat with the prior year quarter offset by a $1 million year over year reduction in product revenue for the quarter. Breaking the SAS and services revenue down a bit further, pure SAS revenue grew mid single digit over the prior year quarter. However, offsetting this increase was a decline in installation and other professional services due to the reduction in product sales over the past two quarters. Okay, let's turn to slide nine and discuss the balance sheet. We'll take a closer look at leverage. As you can see, we ended the quarter with a net balance of 928 million up modestly on a sequential basis due to the repurchase of 2 million shares during the second quarter. We ended the quarter with net leverage of 2.4 times and we've maintained significant liquidity with our undrawn credit revolver. Our gross debt balance at year end stands at 1.1 billion of which approximately 700 million is floating rate debt. As we've discussed in the past, our notional hedge of approximately 675 million covers over 95% of our current floating debt total with a float for fixed rate swap that is canceled at our options. Okay, let's turn to slide 10 and have a look at full year 2024 guidance which remains unchanged from our discussion last quarter. For purposes of review, I'll give you a quick refresher on our guidance by major category. We expect total revenue growth of approximately 8% and adjusted EBITDA margin expansion of about 50 basis points compared to last year. Adjusted EPS is expected at the upper end of the $1.15 to $1.20 per share range. Adjusted free cash flow is anticipated in the range of 155 to $165 million. And finally, net leverage will land at approximately two times assuming no additional capital allocation investments beyond the investments we've made through the second quarter. We anticipate revenue and adjusted EBITDA to increase sequentially in the third quarter. However, as we experienced in both 2022 and 2023, we expect sequential growth to slow to low single digits in the third quarter due to travel demand shifting forward in the year. Consistent with historical trends, we would then expect a low single digit reduction to revenue and adjusted EBITDA in the fourth quarter. Adjusted EBITDA margins are expected to follow the same sequential revenue trends. We expect commercial services to grow mid-single digits sequentially in the third quarter and to decline mid-single digits in the fourth quarter consistent with historical performance. In government solutions, we expect flat to low single digit sequential revenue growth over the balance of year.

speaker
David

Lastly,

speaker
Craig

parking solutions revenue is now expected to deliver flat total revenue compared to prior year. As we've discussed, the temporary reduction in revenue growth is comprised of strong demand in SaaS, offset by a reduction in one-time product sales and related installation services as the industry transitions to a focus on software and mobile solutions. We expect T2 adjusted EBITDA margins to grow sequentially in the third and fourth quarters with a full year of about 10 to 25 basis points over last year. Over the long term, we expect parking to return to strong organic growth as we execute our SaaS and transactional revenue growth strategies. Other key assumptions supporting our adjusted EPS and adjusted free cash flow can be found on slide 11. In summary, we have a strong first half to the year and I'm confident in our ability to deliver in our 2024 outlook. We are benefiting from a number of secular tailwinds, strong travel, continued transition to cashless tolling as well as a robust and growing landscape for automated enforcement and other urban mobility technology solutions. The strength of our end markets and our continued focus on execution have set us up well to execute on our long-term growth

speaker
David

commitments.

speaker
Craig

This concludes our prepared remarks. Thank you for your time and attention. At this time, I'd like to invite Jenny to open the line for any questions. Over to you, Jenny.

speaker
Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question and answer session. Should you have a question, please press the star followed by the one on your touch phone phone. You will hear a prompt that your hand has been raised. Questions will be taken in the order received. Should you wish to cancel your request, please press the star followed by the two. If you are using a speaker phone, please lift the handset before pressing any case. Once again, that is star one, should you wish to ask a question. Your first question is from Faiza Ali from Goitabeg. Please ask your question.

speaker
Faiza Ali

Yes, hi, thank you so much. So David, thanks for all the color around the incremental ARR and government solutions. I wanted to ask about competitive activity there. What type of contracts are you winning? How would you characterize your win rate? Is it in line with historical levels? Just give us a bit more color around the competitive landscape there.

speaker
David

Yeah, of course. One, the competitive landscape really depends on what where in the country, or really, I guess where in the world, but mostly where in the country where we are. It seems that some of our other competitors have focused more on in certain areas. There's a couple of competitors that have really focused in what I would just call the generally the Southeast of the United States. Others are a little bit more in the Northeast and then less so on the West, but a little bit there. In general, what you would say is that our win rate, both in terms of the total number of contracts, as well as the dollars that we're going after, which is obviously a more important number, is in line with our expectations and similar to historic numbers overall. What I would say is that our competitors are definitely feisty. They've been doing a good job because of all the work we've done to open up the market, but in the major accounts, I feel like we've done a really good job there.

speaker
Faiza Ali

Great, thank you. And then in commercial services, you had strong growth in the quarter. It sounds like you are saying that you expect strong travel demand to continue. Just talk a little bit more about your confidence there because it seems like there's some travel companies are calling out a little bit of slowing in demand. And I wonder if there are other factors that are making up for any slowing. There's a little bit more concern around the consumer environment, so talk a bit more about your confidence there.

speaker
Craig

Yeah, thanks, Vaisa. I think I know what you're referring to, but in general, if you look at the demand commentary coming from the airlines, and quite frankly, some of our largest customers, that continues to remain. Let's take a look at the TSA throughput. I mean, the TSA throughput is 106% year to date. It was 106% versus 2023. It was 106% first quarter. It was 106% in the second quarter. It was 106% in July. It's in and around that range in August. So we have not yet seen that. So we still think that the level of travel that we've seen year to date is what we're gonna experience go forward, and I haven't heard anything different. I think the only other thing I would add to that, and it's qualitative, but we have seen a return to the business travel, right? So to the degree that the consumer would have slowed down a bit, there is an offsetting increase in business travel that we've continued to see come through 2024, and I think that's why we've seen TSA hold really, really flat through the first seven months and change of the year.

speaker
David

Great, thank you. Thank you. Your next question is from Daniel Moore

speaker
Operator

from CJ as Securities. Please ask your question.

speaker
Dan

Thanks, David. Thanks, Craig. Thanks for all the color. I wanted to maybe just dig in on margins a little bit by segments, not necessarily this year, but I think commercial services, 67% margin, clearly exceptional and benefiting from seasonal strengths, but just talk about the sustainability of those levels as we look beyond 24, and then conversely in government solutions, margins, come in a bit with some of the investments you make, talk about the opportunity for operating leverage as we look out, and some of those new enforcement programs come online.

speaker
Craig

Yeah, great. So a lot to unpack in that question, so I'll do my best. I'll start with what I think is gonna happen for the year, and then I'll give you some directional indication and how we're thinking about 2025, okay? Overall for the company for the year, I think we're gonna have a pre 50 basis points, which is consistent with what we said at the beginning of the year. I think CS will probably be about 100 basis points, GS is gonna have the year flat slightly down, and T2 will be up a shackle or two. So again, if you cost that out, you get up to 50 basis points. Now, the one thing on 67% for CS, remember we're in the summer driving season, so we could see that even maybe potentially take a bit higher in the third quarter, but that will come back in the fourth quarter, okay? For the GS business, you're right, if you compare where we're at today, year over year, you will see the reduction in GS that's roughly split 50-50 between us doing more product sales internationally, which have follow on service agreements, which are higher margin, but they're lower margin sales upfront. That's what you're seeing journalized. And then the other side are the investments that we're making to win some of these new TAMs. But I think if you look at GS sequentially, one thing I'd like to point out, we're down 50 basis points sequentially in the second quarter, that's all mixed driven. So as we see those investments ramp up year over year, we're consistent within the year. And I'm gonna use that as a jumping off point, I think for the second part of your question is what does 2025 look like? As if travel remains where it is today, like we've said, it will be a GDP grower, right? If nothing else changes, the business will continue to scale. So we should see margin accretion again year over year in CS just based on what we're seeing for travel. For GS, that one's a tougher pot. If the volume falls exactly as we see it today, we'd probably be flat to slightly accretive, but here's what can happen as you've listened to the calls for the last couple quarters, every time one of these new markets open, we mobilize and we get our feet on the ground and that costs money to do. Obviously it's the easiest return on investment you can imagine for us to invest, but we will continue to see that. So if I had to guess on GS, I don't think we'll see margin percent accretion next year. I think flat would probably be good, down another 50 basis points probably wouldn't be horrible. But then once we know where we land in California and some of these other camps and we get some notices to proceed, then the margin accretion will start as we're able to lean out that cost that you need to put in when you're opening up a new market.

speaker
Dan

Really helpful. And then on T2 side, you obviously continue to shift from hardware to SaaS based solutions and appreciate you calling out the maintenance work that goes along with that or the implementation work. Maybe just talk about the pipeline of opportunities, one and then two, when you think those two sort of inflect and we might get back to more positive growth or start to drift back toward the kind of longer term expectations for that business.

speaker
David

Thanks. Hey, Dan, David. Yeah, great question. So what I would say is right now, I think the team is really building some momentum. We're seeing a lot of traction in our permits and enforcement side of that business. As you recall, there's a university segment where we're back in software and then there are municipal segment that is more permits and enforcement. And we're seeing a tremendous growth well above plan. That's a smaller portion of the business. And so what I would say is we've obviously, we're gonna be adjusting ourselves to make sure we're taking an opportunity to capture that demand. I would say that as we exit the year, we should probably be back on toward trajectory of getting to a higher run rating. I would expect next year is still not gonna be at the high single digits, but probably starting to get toward that toward the end of next year is probably the best trajectory and the margin to come along with that.

speaker
Dan

All right, really helpful. Last one for me is just the balance sheet. Guidance for, is to exit the full year with net leverage of 2.0 times. Is that a priority for you or are you still be opportunistic looking at M&A and or buybacks between now and year end? Thanks again.

speaker
Craig

Yeah, thanks for asking that. And the fact that you asked the question means I should have said it different in the script. So double thank you. No, that's not a target. That is not a target. That will be the result, right? So the target for the company over term, I think we talked about this a quarter or two ago, Dan, is three times net leverage. So we are out there looking to deploy capital, but like we said, right, if we can't do that in a creative way, I mean, it will deliver the company, but that would be the result, not necessarily a target.

speaker
Dan

Thought that was the case. Just wanted to confirm.

speaker
David

Thanks again. Thank you. Thank you. Your next

speaker
Operator

question is from Keith Hossin from North Coast Research. Please ask your question.

speaker
Keith Hossin

Great, thank you. Good morning, guys, or good afternoon. I should say it's been a long day. In terms of the T2 parking, is there any KPIs or any kind of metrics you can give us to give us some confidence that business is growing, understanding the shift from license to the SAS model, but just want to give a little more confidence to that story if we can.

speaker
David

Yeah, I mean, I won't give any specific KPIs that we manage internally, necessarily. What I would say is that the revenue growth from permits and enforcement is well above plan. What I would also say is that our pipeline of new and expansion sales opportunities in our current basis is also starting to expand again. So what I would say is right now, after sort of this conversion in the market of our operator segment, we've really pivoted the business back to the core around university and small municipalities. And so what I would say is that we are probably in the bottom of the trough right now with the way I would describe the business from that and we are moving our way up the other side of that. And again, I think about this business as trajectory-based. So how do we think about it as it's gonna end this year? And maybe more importantly, how do we get back to that high single digit growth rate and expanded margin opportunities toward the end of next year as well? And let me just

speaker
Craig

add to that a bit. So David did it from a product standpoint, which is good. Let me try to do it from how we go to market standpoint. There's three things that we look at. And we're not gonna do this externally on a regular basis, but I think given this quarter, Warren's mentioned, right? We've got true traditional SaaS revenue. We have service revenue, which are hardware-enabled services. So it's not SaaS and it's also not hardware. Then of course we got hardware. When hardware goes, when hardware demand pulls back, which we saw happen year over year, it brings with it some of those services. Okay? But the true value driver of key two is the recurring SaaS part of the business. That's the part that we wanna see continue to grow. That's the part that becomes a larger part of the portfolio over the next handful of years. It's gonna make this more sustainable and it's gonna make it a higher margin business. We saw that part this quarter grow 5% year over year. So when we talk about being flat in total revenue, what we're seeing happen is the shift away from hardware, which again for us is by resale, right? So we're not too sad to see it go. And some of the attached services that go along with that, but the stuff that keeps us in front of the customer and drives our 97% retention rate in this business actually grew mid-single digit, even in a pressured quarter like

speaker
Keith Hossin

this. Okay, great, we appreciate that, Kara, thank you. In terms of the European tolling efforts, is there any update to report there?

speaker
David

Yeah, nothing new from last quarter in terms of number of pilots or things like that. And off the top of my head, no new toll roads that have opened or gone cashless that would be of any note. So kind of in the same position that we were, which is we've got a couple of pilots in some key countries, we are beginning to see a bit of the thaws that relates to the barrier-based tolling in places like France and Italy. And we'll just continue to monitor that and execute on the pilots that we do now.

speaker
Keith Hossin

Great, and that's a question for me. In terms of the Florida school zone cameras, if I remember right, you guys really were thinking that revenue is really gonna be more of a first half of 2025 versus a second half 2024 event. Is that still a line of thought?

speaker
David

Yeah, that's correct,

speaker
David

that's exactly right,

speaker
Keith Hossin

Keith.

speaker
David

Great, thanks guys, appreciate it. Yep. Thank you. Once again, please

speaker
Operator

press forward once if you wish to ask a question. Your next question is from Oluwede Palma from Oluwede Blair, please ask your question.

speaker
Oluwede Palma

David, Craig, Ann, and Mark, good afternoon.

speaker
David

Hey, Oluwede.

speaker
Oluwede Palma

Hey, Oluwede. Following up on the answer that you just gave, the $22 million in ARR bookings year to date for photo enforcement represents roughly 6% of our forecast for your government services revenue this year. And do you still expect that the ARR growth rate will accelerate in 2025 from these wins? And are you expecting that the acceleration will likely be like back-end loaded to the second half of the year as it generally takes time to install these cameras? Like what are your thoughts in terms of the time of installation for these wins that you've achieved thus far?

speaker
Craig

The short answer to your question, Louie, is yes. Okay, the slightly longer answer is timing really matters here. It really, really matters, right? So when we're looking myopically at a 90-day cycle or a 360-day cycle to show growth for the company. So let me bring it back for a second, and then I'll try to give you a little more detail. So bringing it back, we expect the government solutions business still to grow the high-end of mid-single digits this year. I don't see that changing. I don't see anything that, and the new ARR that we've been able to put under contract here, I don't see anything that's gonna move that for 2024. As we go out into 2025 and those notice to proceed start coming, a couple things happen. The notice to proceed gets awarded, right? Then the actual install happens, then there's a calibration period, then the program actually starts. And it really matters if that last thing, then the program actually starts, happens in April or it happens in June, because you're gonna see a materially different impact in 2025 because of that. I'll just have a better view of that six months from today, but bringing it back to the easy answer is, I do think this is for sure a 2025 impact, most likely second half is where you'll see the most material impact, just given how long it takes the program to actually turn in the revenues and company.

speaker
Oluwede Palma

Great, and does anything stand out with the New York City RFP? I think you mentioned that bids are due in October, but do you think that it's a fair RFP?

speaker
David

Well, what I would say, the best word I can use long, it's 800 pages. It's a pretty comprehensive RFP. They did a really thoughtful and we had, as you recall, we had expected it earlier in the year, clearly they were busy putting together a very, very comprehensive note. So I would say, yeah, it was originally gonna be due in I think August and it's moved back now to the end of October as the current bid date. And I think it's been written extremely, New York has high expectations and the RFP reflects that.

speaker
Oluwede Palma

Great, and one final one on the tolling side, does the rollout of your and your partner's all-inclusive plans, does that continue to do well? And is it continuing to expand with your partners?

speaker
Craig

It's continuing to do well, Louie. It's gonna flex quarter to quarter, depending on opt-in and counter incentives, but we're very happy with the performance. But what we're not gonna see, so we've anniversary the inclusion of, was it AVG, Mark, second one? Hertz, sorry, sorry. So we've anniversary Hertz actually flipping the program on so you're not gonna see those kind of momentous year over year growth now that that's in the run rate. But the opt-in rate there continues to be exactly where we have a pet, we're very pleased.

speaker
David

Sounds good, thanks everyone.

speaker
spk00

Thank you.

speaker
David

Thank

speaker
Operator

you, there are no further, oh, sorry. We have another one that just came through that's from Dave Connick from there. We just asked your question.

speaker
Dave Connick

Oh yeah, hey guys, sorry I'm a little late to join, but a couple questions. One, credit loss expense year to date's a little higher, both Q1 and Q2 were up about 50% compared to last year. Now those aren't big numbers, so 50% move isn't that much, but is that economic related at all or maybe what is that?

speaker
Craig

Yeah, Dave, great question. It is not economically related, let me start with that. We did have some two contractual things that we're still quite frankly in negotiations with to get recoveries that we booked prudently in the first quarter. As I look at our number, well I'm doing this off the top of my head Dave, so I know you'll keep me honest, but I believe the credit loss expense was something on the rounds of about $3.9 million in the second quarter of 2024. That's pretty much exactly what it was in the third quarter of 2023. And if I look at it year over year, it's up about 25%, but my volume's up roughly half that. So what I'm seeing today is literally volume driven, I have not seen the consumer getting any weaker in our stack, and again I think some of that stuff that we put on the books in the first quarter, hopefully I'll be able to come back to you in the back half of the year and tell you that we had a favorable contractual settlement.

speaker
Dave Connick

Gotcha, that's helpful. And then I guess the other question, Avis and Enterprise obviously doing really well, Hertz, and maybe you at Amtestory, but Hertz was down here every year in the quarter, maybe not surprising at all, but is that kind of expected from Hertz just given kind of where they're at?

speaker
Craig

Yeah, I was surprised too. I saw that too Dave. And look, I think it just has to do with snapping the chalk in 90 days. I can't, my business is not necessarily a reflection totally of Hertz, because Hertz does business a lot of places where my product doesn't exist because there's no toll roads. But as long as those numbers are directionally correct over a longer period of time, I think we're okay. And if I'm not mistaken, I think Hertz's rental days were about flat year over year. So I would chalk us being down in Hertz year over year more to locational mix than it would anything macroeconomic or anything going on with the customer. Gotcha,

speaker
David

oh, that's great. Thanks guys. Thank you. Thank you.

speaker
Operator

There are no further questions at this time. And that concludes the question and answer session for today. Ladies and gentlemen, we have reached the end of the conference. Thank you all for joining and may we ask that you please disconnect your lines.

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