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XP Inc.

Q32024

11/19/2024

speaker
André Mafra
CEO

with 1.21 trillion posting a 12% increase year over year. As we will see during the presentation, it's important to mention that it was another consistent quarter regarding net inflows. Aligned with our levers and our capacity to adapt, becoming more relevant in fixed income in the current scenario. We also increased our total number of advisors, reaching 18.4,000, growing 9% year over year, and continued to expand our active client base, marking 4.7 million, increasing 6% year over year. During the nine months, 2024, Gross revenues grew 17% year-over-year, reaching 13.3 billion. Our EBT posted 25% growth year-over-year, delivering 3.7 billion. Our net income reached 3.3 billion, expanding 17% year over year. And it was the highest in our history in the quarter at almost 1.2 billion reais, with 27.5% margin. the set of results indicate that we are at the right pace to meet the 2026 guidance released in the last year's investor day we'll go into more details on the financials later on going to balance sheet and profitability We ended the quarter with an ROTE of 28.4%, an increase of 258 bps year over year. Our managerial bps ratio was 21.5% and the EPS was 2.18 reais per share, the all time high in our history. On the right, you can see that EPS, since the IPO, grew almost four times, reaching 7.93 reais in the last 12 months. Today, we also announced an extra payout of 3 billion reais, contemplating dividends and a new share buyback program. Recently, we commented that we are targeting to deliver more than 50% payout until 2026. This year, it's well above it. All in all, we keep our targets to 2026 to reach a BIS ratio between 16% and 19%, with more than 50% payout in the next couple of years. Our capital discipline in how we operate our business considers an efficient capital allocation and capital return to shareholders. As I commented recently, we were already expecting to deliver better results in second half 24, based in our growth levers, cost discipline and capital allocation. Third quarter 24 results reaffirm that our execution plan is on track and enhances our confidence in delivering the guidance. Moving on to the next slide, we see our strategy tracker, which presents how our business evolve in time. We will analyze each pillar during the presentation. Our gross revenue in third quarter 24, last 12 months, marked 17.6 billion, posting a 20% growth. Hypothetically, if we target to reach the top of the guidance, it will be necessary a 20% CAGR until fourth quarter 26. Regarding our LTM EBT margin, we have reached 28.1%, 183 bps expansion compared to third quarter 23 LTM figures. demonstrating that we are in the right pace to read the 30 to 34% target range in 2026. In retail investments, we reinforce that our aim is to become leaders in investments, which is our core business. As highlighted in the beginning of this presentation, a strategic achievement was to keep consistency on net new money. We record 31 billion in net new money for the quarter. It represents a 124% growth year over year, excluding modal acquisition. It's important to highlight that out of the 31 billion, 25 billion is from retail. Important to remind you that around 20 billion in retail net new money it's a good level for the current scenario this achievement was possible due to improvement to several factors and i would like to remind you of our main levers number one Product Platform, the most complete investment platform in the country, positioning us ahead of peers. As an example, during the quarter, our fixed income platform posted solid results once again, with innovative and competitive products and sophisticated instruments. Second, our multi-channel distribution keeps evolving. And as we mentioned in the recent past, IFAs, internal advisors, and RIAs work synchronized to increase our client base and grow AUC. In this quarter, we reached 18.4 thousand total advisors, which 2.7 thousand are our internal sales force. When compared net inflows, Internal Advisors already represents in many months a higher net inflow than the IFA network. Third, for the past few years, we have implemented more intelligence in our offering with the right value proposition for each segment, from private to retail. For example, pricing adjustments for each product and service with a better understanding on economics, providing private clients a more active portfolio management, while providing retail clients an objective-based approach to run their portfolios. Additionally, during the year in private bank, we hired many seasoned professionals, including the CEO for the segment that will pay off in the next years. These changes in the way of doing business translate into a potential faster growth in private banking and retail, since we are already very competitive in the affluent segment. Lastly, transitioning from a product distribution firm to a service provider is key to differentiate ourselves from other players for the next decade. While competitors render financial planning to ultra-high private bank clients, we are offering to clients with 300K and above, which is only possible because of our tech-enabled platform. No other player in Brazil can do it in the same scale we are doing. we continuously keep improving our service and product offering. And the combination of these levers are translating to a consistent retail net inflow, higher productivity, higher quality from client perspective, and more profitability for the company. Noteworthy that we receive many questions regarding retail take rate direction. As we said recently, for the mid-term, we do not expect big change. And this quarter, it increased 4 bps, marking 1.33%. now let's move to our cross-selling initiatives we are continuously implementing new initiatives and products to attend and excel our clients financial needs when a client decides to enhance the relationship with xp acquiring other serves or product we see the cross-sell results materially lifting revenues on the left side of the slide we can see how retail cross-sell is evolving credit card grew 12 year-over-year achieving 12 billion in tpv in third quarter 24 and gain market share during the year it still has roughly 29 penetration why we estimate incumbent banks present around 50 penetration Life insurance keeps a fast pace, posting 46% growth year over year in written premiums, reaching $362 million in the quarter. Penetration is around 2%, and when we compare to other players, we believe there's a lot of room to increase your penetration on our client base, since market presents average of 17% penetration. From a revenue perspective, it still has a lagging effect since sales from our marketplace impact revenues positively during the first three years and sales from our own insurance company takes three years to present revenues positive impact. This effect relies on the high commissions and provisions in the beginning of the terms. On retirement plans, our client assets grew by 15% year over year, reaching 78 billion. XP has 5% market share and the market leader has 28%. We are addressing new efforts to keep growing our share. Initiatives as cashback and Salesforce expansion are resulting in faster growth pace. we are confident that we will gain much more relevance during the next years. Retail credit presented 51% growth year over year, marking R$ 75 million in revenues in the quarter. Our objective is not to grant money through clean credit lines, but with client investments as collateral. We have the best client base from a credit risk perspective, and as a consequence, our ECL to loans is one of the lowest in the local market. in this new vertical concept we have other products as effects global investments digital account and consortium which grew 92 year over year with revenues reaching 201 million reais this quarter this is a clear example of our capacity to launch new features and reap the benefit rapidly if you remember few years ago we had zero revenues on this product on the right side of the slide to illustrate the relevance of cross cell we can see revenues per client among different segments on this example we are using a hundred base chart On average, clients with more than two products present 38% more revenues, and clients with more than three products presents two times more revenues than a client with one product. Important to highlight that our retail offers include more than one product. Therefore, this is how we monetize clients with tickets lower than 100,000. With that in mind, we understand that there is a big opportunity in front of us. We have a complete product range with room to increase penetration and profitability while we keep launching new ones. And finally, the corporate and SMB. As we mentioned before, wholesale clients are crucial to our ecosystem. Each quarter, we have been able to innovate and to meet our corporate clients' needs, while distributing these instruments to retail and institutional networks. Now, let's explore our wholesale business from origination, distribution, lending to derivatives and FX treasury serves. During the last years, we have been improving our position in rankings and league tables in investment banking. We are number one in REIT issuance and CRA, agriculture receivable certificates, and number two in CRI, real estate receivable certificates. As a matter of fact, During 30 quarter 24, we reached 8.6 billion in GCM volume, positioning XP as the top two ranking year to date. Since we have the largest investor platform in the country, when we think about secondary trading, we are number one by far, with more than 50% market share. institutional is another piece that benefits from our ecosystem as a market leader in independent fund managers distribution we are the fourth largest player in equities traded volume we for quality in execution and strong relationships We keep gaining market share, and we understand this trend remains looking ahead. Expanding beyond investment banking and brokerage, few years ago, we have started to develop new businesses, such as corporate securities trading, which can be monitored by our capacity to originate and distribute our expanded loan book. Corporate securities achieved 23 billion, a 79% growth year over year. We are the largest broker for corporate credit in Brazil. And portion of this corporate securities is related to our flow book, which turns over around three times per quarter. Our unique recycling mode provides better NIMS risk adjusted, aligned with our credit risk discipline. Another example, derivatives. We keep evolving our offering while increasing penetration in OTC derivatives. And this quarter, we were ranked fourth position compared to 10th two years ago. More than that, we became number one in interest rate swaps. This is another clear view of our powerful ecosystem. On FX, a similar improvement, reaching 15th. from four years ago when we started. Lastly, we have been developing and deploying more products and services. For instance, last quarter we launched the corporate digital account and we will launch trade finance in the next months. We are also acting as the insurance broker for our corporate clients. As this business grows, we will bring additional disclosure regarding them. The new loans corroborate to increase cross-sell as it's part of our plan to gain profitable market share with lower risk. As a consequence, wholesale business printed a solid 36% revenue growth last 12 months. Victor will give more details about the revenue growth. Now we will hand it over to Victor so he can discuss this quarter financials. Thank you.

speaker
Victor
CFO

Thanks, Mafra. Good evening, everyone. It's a pleasure to be here with you. And before we go to the results of the quarter, I would like to recall some ideas anticipated in the second quarter of 2024. First, in the second quarter, we explained that warehousing assets by underwriting more fixed income offerings would drive an increase in our wholesale revenues, particularly if they issue services. At the same time, we anticipated a lagging impact on retail until the distribution phase of those offerings. As expected, when the distribution phase of those offerings took place this quarter, we observed a positive impact on retail fixed income revenues. Second, for the reason just mentioned, in the second quarter we have increased our balance sheet, growing R$ 10 billion in corporate securities, in a single quarter, as part of a warehousing business. And, finally, we had also anticipated that revenue mix, along with a few other minor effects, resulted in a higher EBT margin and tax rate in the second quarter. We emphasized that using a trading 12 months metric for both would serve as a more reliable guide for expectation in the coming quarters. If that in mind, remember that the last quarter we focused on discussing our last 12 months figures. We are evolving the right way to deliver our commitments in 2026, and the third quarter of 2024 was a positive quarter with the retail business on the spotlight. Total gross revenue grew 17% on nine months of 2024 and 4% year over year. Retail was the highlight during the quarter. Corporate and issue services posted solid results and institutional revenue was flattish quarter over quarter. On the high-hand side of the slide, we see our gross revenue breakdown, and retail increased participation to 77% on total revenues on the back of another positive quarter for fixed income. Let's move to the next slide with more details on retail. Retail revenue posted R$ 3.494 billion, a 15% growth in 9 months 2024 and 10% growth year-over-year. Fixed income was once again the highlight, with 56% growth 9 months 2024 against 9 months 2023 and 31% growth year-over-year. That growth was supported by both, our ability to keep launching new products, including corporate credit and structural notes, being very competitive against tax-exempt notes from incumbent banks. And second, our relevance in secondary trading higher than 50% in terms of market share, which enables us to provide liquidity to our client base. Moving on to the next slide, we will talk about corporate industry services revenue. Corporate and issue services continue to be an important driver to total revenues, posting R$ 552 million in the quarter, which represents a 58% growth in the 9 months 24 and 6% growth year-over-year. Issue servers delivered positive results on back-end DCM activity, reaching R$ 323 million in the quarter and 71% growth in the 9 months 24 and flat year-over-year. Corporate results typically align if they issue services performance, if cross-selling opportunities arising from new fixed income issues, particularly if derivatives. Corporate posts R$ 229 million in the quarter, a 43% growth in 9 months and 4, and 17% growth year-over-year. On the right-hand side of the slide, we like to present our ecosystem rationale, connecting our retail and corporate investment banking business in a profitable risk-recycling mode. In the second quarter of 2024, we expended 10 billion reais in new corporate securities warehoused in our balance sheet. And in Q3, we already distributed around two-thirds of that book to our retail and institutional clients, as we said we would do. Moving on to the next slide, we will explore SG&A and efficiency ratios. SG&A X incentives reached R$ 1.5 billion in the third quarter, a decrease of 2% year-over-year, and a 7% higher quarter-over-quarter. Since every third quarter we have investments in our fair expert, quarter-over-quarter comparison has a seasonality effect. As we said before, cost-discipline and efficiency are part of our plan and DNA, since both position XP in a better competitive level. I am happy to announce that this quarter we mark another record, with 35% efficiency ratio, the lowest in our history since the IPO, printing 179 base points lower year-over-year and 6 base points lower quarter-over-quarter. Important to mention that we are confident to deliver our goals for 2026 if a powerful combination, our innovative solutions to our clients, our new business and internal advisor expansion becoming each year more mature, coupled with our cost discipline. Moving on to EBIT now. MBT achieved R$ 1.2 billion in the quarter, a 5% growth year-over-year, and R$ 3.7 billion in 9 months 24, a 25% growth. As I commented before, we emphasize that using trading 12 months metrically for both EBT margin and FX tax rate would serve as a more reliable guide for expectation in the coming quarters, which was already the case in this one. In this quarter, our EBT margin in the last 12 months was 28.1%, flat year over year, and also flat against the second quarter, 2024, last 12 months EBT margin. We believe our EBT margin will keep growing on an annual basis, reaching our goals for 2026. Let's see our net income on the next slide. Even considering the different revenue mix, I'm happy to share with you that during the quarter we set a new net income record, printing R$ 1,187,000,000. It represents a 7% growth in the 9 months 24 and a 9% growth year over year. Another important achievement was the increased net margin in 118 base points, posting 27.5%. Let's move on to the next slide to talk about capital management. As you might have seen, this quarter we start to disclose our BIS ratio data, including risk weight assets breakdown if two years of historical data. We achieved 21.5% BIS ratio in the equator and one of our goals is to operate the business between 16% to 19%. So, efficient capital management is key. Therefore, besides the R$ 7.5 billion already distributed through dividends and share buybacks during the last years, we announced today an additional R$ 3 billion to be distributed in dividends and share buyback. Considering this distribution and full execution of the buyback program, we would have a BIS ratio at 18.3%, in line for guidance. On the right side of the slide, we can observe that the RWA total assets ratio stands at 30% this quarter, if the CRAT RWA accounting for 45% of our total risk. The shift in the mix between CRAT and market RWA compared to the previous quarter is primarily due to the implementation of new central bank resolution in this quarter, the 313 resolution. According to this new resolution, the risk associated with securities and derivatives held in the trading book must now be classified as market RWA. We believe this regulatory adjustment provides a more accurate representation of a risk profile. given the majority of our credit exposure is tied to corporate bonds credit spread it aligns more closely with market risk taking that in consideration our credit rwa is way lower than peers which corroborates your discipline in allocating capital across the ecosystem also important to consider that our business not only consume lower credit rwa but also has a low average daily VAR at 22 million in third quarter or 10 basis points of our equity. Our strategy is based on increased profitability and capital returns to shareholders while keeping a conservative BIS ratio when compared to the Brazilian financial industry. These slides summarize our capital distribution if more than 10.5 billion reais in dividends in buybacks in the last three years. Last year, our total payout ratio was 114%, if 4.5 billion reais capital return. And this year, if the new announcements, it indicates more than 9% payout ratio, if more than 4.2 billion reais of capital return. As Mafa mentioned earlier, our goal is to keep delivering higher than 50% payout ratio for the next two years, aiming to operate between 16% to 19% in this ratio. Now, let's see our EPS and ROTE numbers. Our earnings per share evolution continues to post a solid growth and achieved R$ 2.18, an 11% increase year-over-year and an 8% increase quarter-over-quarter. During the 3Q24, XP posted 28.4% in ROT, a fine increase of 258 base points year-over-year and 114 base points quarter-over-quarter. Now, moving back to Mafra, so he can do his final remarks, and then we go to the Q&A.

speaker
André Mafra
CEO

Thanks, Victor. So, before we go to the Q&A, I would like to emphasize four things. First, we had another solid quarter confirming that we are on track to deliver our 2026 guidance. Second, as we presented, our levers are delivering positive results with R$ 25 billion net new money this quarter and indicating that our target should deliver around R$ 20 billion per quarter is feasible. we believe we are enhancing our modes by offering to our clients the most complete and sophisticated product platform in the country expanding our best trained sales force and evolving our value proposition properly to each segment to better offering objectives and higher level of service excellence And lastly, our commitment to manage our company with capital discipline, efficiency and return to our shareholders. Once executed, we will have returned more than R$10.5 billion to shareholders throughout the last three years. Now, André Parisi will start the Q&A session.

speaker
André Parisi
Head of Investor Relations

Okay, now we're going to start our Q&A, attending you on the first come, first serve basis. First question is from Tiago Batista, UBS. Tiago, you may proceed.

speaker
Eduardo Rosman
BTG Analyst

Hello, guys.

speaker
André Parisi
Head of Investor Relations

Hello, can you hear me? Yes.

speaker
Tiago Batista
UBS Analyst

Yes. Okay, thanks Parisi, Marga, Victor. I have two questions. The first one caught the attention, the increase they had of experience about 400 new individuals. Is relevant the amount of those guys that went to the B2C advisor or not? And my second question, I know that you don't have a guidance for profitability or Hoy or Holt, but can you give to us a ballpark idea of what level of profitability that you believe XP will have in the long term? And by the way, you are looking more to Hoy or Holt?

speaker
André Mafra
CEO

Hi, Thiago. Thank you for your question. Good evening to all. It's a pleasure to be here. I will take the first question and Vitor will answer the second one. Out of the about 400 employees, 300 and to B2C, they are advisors. Why you don't see that increase on the total number of advisors? Because we had a change in regulation a few months back And now the IFAs, they don't need the IFA partners. Imagine the managers, the people that work not as advisors on the IFAs. They don't need anymore to be IFAs. So now they are under employee contract agreements. and they are leaving the IFA number. So if you look at the total number at Ambima, it's going down. And it's not because people are leaving the profession of advisor, it's because of this new change in regulation and they are becoming regular employees in Brazil. So out of the 400 people that we hired internally, 300 went to the B2C as advisors.

speaker
Victor
CFO

Perfect, thank you. I will take the second question about ROE. Looking at our ROTE number of 2008, you can say that our return on capital employed is around that. And after we deliver our guidance of Basel Index, by the end of the guidance, you can expect our ROE will be mid to high 20s.

speaker
Tiago Batista
UBS Analyst

No, very clear, Matra and Victor.

speaker
André Parisi
Head of Investor Relations

Okay, next question is from Eduardo Rosman, BTG. Rosman, you may proceed.

speaker
Eduardo Rosman
BTG Analyst

Hi, guys. Good evening. I want to talk more about capital allocation. And Victor, I think he talked a lot about it. He came up with new information as well. So I wanted to get more details about, you know, the... RWA, you know, what could, can we expect in terms of growth, you know, for next year, maybe, you know, in the midterm, you know, if there is, if there is kind of a gains of scale there on operational risk or market risk, you know, if you grow more eventually, if there's room, you know, to improve efficiency there. Now you also have, you know, the ability to issue tier one and tier two, you know, so if you see room to do that, you know, and eventually, you know, bring your core tier one, you know, At the end of the day, I'm trying to understand what level of payout in the form of dividends and buybacks we can probably work in the next two years. You have a very high payout in the last couple of years. So I wanted to have an idea if we can work with something of at least 50% for the next couple of years. Thanks.

speaker
Victor
CFO

Okay, thank you for a question, Rosman. First, there is operational leverage in the RWA numbers. They can give you a color. If you look at our revenues in issue services and corporate, which is basically a more capital-intensive business, the revenues grew 38% in the last 12 months. And the RWA grew only 30%. So there is again between the relation in revenue and RWA. And when you go to market and operation RWA, also our gains that we can make over the years using more efficient structures as now we can use the bank in his full capacity. And talking about payout, you can expect 50% or more of our net income paid in 2025-26. That should be the levels to reach our guidance in terms of BIS ratio. And after that, we should stabilize near 30.

speaker
Eduardo Rosman
BTG Analyst

Awesome. Thanks a lot.

speaker
Tito Labarta
Goldman Sachs Analyst

Thanks a lot.

speaker
André Parisi
Head of Investor Relations

Okay, our next question is from Yuri Fernandes from JP Morgan. Yuri, you may proceed.

speaker
Yuri Fernandes
JP Morgan Analyst

Hello, Parisi. Thank you. I'm Afra Vitor. Quick one, just on a Hosman question, just making sure the 21.5, it still does not reflect the 2 billion, right? It should maybe drop to 19.5 without any capital generation for the next quarter. So very quickly this. And if I may, a second one, just on the other line, Parisi, what happened with the others? It was about 40% decrease quarter over quarter. So if you can provide a little bit of explanation what hurt that line this quarter. Thank you.

speaker
Victor
CFO

Oh, sorry. Thank you for our question, Yuri. The BIS ratio in the end of the quarter was actually 21.5, and after the dividend, it goes to 19. And considering the buyback done, it goes to 18.3. As we said, you can expect that we will pay more than 50% of our earnings in the next two years. And after that, our payout ratio should normalize between 30% and 50% of our net income. Going... Going to the second question about other revenue, in this quarter, we had a one-off event. In the beginning of the quarter, we tendered almost half of our outstanding 2026 notes and issued a new 2029 bond. Remember that those notes that we tendered, they were had to Brazilian CDI. And by then back, we had to undo the hedge accounting. And by undoing the hedge accounting, we discharged all the P&L in the net income. And if you consider all the transactions, the carry of the new debt is cheaper than the one that we bought in CDI plus levels. So over time, the P&L of the transaction is positive. But in this quarter, we had this one-off event that reduced the other revenue line. And you should expect that we'll be back to average levels in the next quarter.

speaker
Yuri Fernandes
JP Morgan Analyst

No, super clear. Thank you for the explanation on this point.

speaker
André Parisi
Head of Investor Relations

Okay. Our next question is from Mario Pierre, Bank of America. Mario, you may proceed.

speaker
Mario Pierre
Bank of America Analyst

Hey, guys. Good evening. Let me ask you three quick questions. Two of them are follow-ups. First one, Mafra, you talked about you're using more internal salespeople, right? However, when I look at the commissions paid to IFAs, they're growing faster than retail revenues. So in fact, right, we calculated a ratio of 25.8% this quarter, last year was 24.6, previous quarter, 25.7. So when do we see the benefits of lower IFA commissions as you start to use your own internal salespeople. And as you mentioned, you had to add about 300 people this quarter. So I'm assuming we're going to see higher SG&A, and that should be compensated by lower IFA commissions. So I was wondering why that did not happen. The second question is very quick. If you can just talk about the impact of the export event on revenues and on expenses. I think that they met out, but just to be clear, you know, uh, how much did you book in expenses and revenues this quarter? And then the third one really is when we were looking at the revenues from, from credit, we see your loan book is flat, relatively flat year over year. However, your credit revenues went from 71 million to 113 million. Was there anything unusual on the credit revenues? Thank you.

speaker
André Mafra
CEO

Thank you, Mario. So the first question about the commission costs, it's really hard to see a change in COGS. like the B2C channel making a change in COGS from a quarter to the next one. You have to see this trend in a longer period of time, like in a year or two, because if you have a very small change in revenue mix, it can change everything, okay? So remember what we said in Q2, we did a lot of revenues, on investment banking, on credit issuance and on 30 Q we distribute a lot of this credit portfolio and when we distribute we make revenue on the retail and we pay commissions okay so it's a completely different COGS when you compare what you do on when you book the the primary market from the investment banking to when you distribute like to on the secondary market okay when you pay commission the other one you don't pay so it's basically revenue mix that's why you're not seeing a big change but if you have to look like a longer trend to see these effects okay about the second one we don't open how much we spend on expert but it's net zero okay so For a few years, it was slightly negative. Last year, this year was zero. Okay, so it's not even positive, but it's very important for us because it's one of the largest financial, if not the largest one in the world about investment. So it's really important for the brand, but it's net zero and some years is like negative. Victor will take the last one.

speaker
Victor
CFO

Okay, thank you for the question. About the CRAT, we had two explanations. The first is the beginning of margin loan operations in the broker-dealer, which are more profitable than conventional CRAT. And the second one, some loans from the COVID era, if lower NII, mature during this quarter, and they were renovated by new operations if... this new normal of price if higher NII. Basically, that is the explanation. The book is almost flat, but we have two new products with higher NII than before.

speaker
Mario Pierre
Bank of America Analyst

Okay, that's clear. Mafra, let me just follow up here on the gross profit and gross margin. Because you provide guidance for EBIT margin. I think 30 to 34, you're running at 28% right now. The improvement in margin, does it come from the gross margin or where should we see the improvement coming from?

speaker
Victor
CFO

Okay, thank you for our question. Talking about the guidance, we can give you some color about the improvement. First is operational leverage. You can see our efficiency ratio in the lowest level ever, and we expect that this ratio will keep improving over the next year. This is one factor. Another factor is the J curve of the cross-sell verticals that we have. We mentioned before that credit cards, for example, they had losses in 2022. They also lose money in 2023. This is the first year that they will make positive margins and that grow over our guidance period. Other verticals, other verticals as our own internal sales force also lost money over 2022 and 2023. This is the first year of positive margin. And as they grow, they start being accretive in terms of EBT. And basically those three things together can explain the expansion in margins.

speaker
Mario Pierre
Bank of America Analyst

Great. Thank you very much.

speaker
André Parisi
Head of Investor Relations

Okay, our next question is from Tito Labarta from Goldman Sachs. Tito, you may proceed.

speaker
Tito Labarta
Goldman Sachs Analyst

Hi, good evening, guys. Thank you for the call and taking my question. Just a couple questions on the revenues. You know, continued good performance on the fixed income retail revenues. How do you think that line sort of continues to evolve? I mean, do you think you're benefiting? From a higher rate environment, is there room for that line to continue to grow into next year? Just to understand a little bit the growth dynamic there. And then on the issuer services revenue line, right? I mean, it's been a good year overall. Tough comps in two queues, down a bit this quarter. Do you think that comes back in 4Q and into next year? Just help us think about sort of DCM activity and how you feel about the issuer services revenues. Thank you.

speaker
Victor
CFO

Hi, Tito. Thank you for your question. Thank you for your question. Second please, Tito.

speaker
Victor
CFO

Answer both of them together. DCM industry in Brazil is a new level. Our pipeline remains robust, and most likely, DCM activity remains strong in the next quarters. As well, the demand for fixed income coming from our distribution channels, both retail and institutional, is very strong so we believe that we'll see both lines DCM and fixed income lines strong over the next quarter and next year and also you need to take in consideration the impact of our corporate restructuring if the bank in a more competitive level we can originate more deals in DCM we can warehouse more fixed income and that increase our compactivity in both of those lines so We are optimists for both in the next year and next quarter.

speaker
Tito Labarta
Goldman Sachs Analyst

Okay, perfect. That's clear. One quick clarification, just on the BIS ratio, is that a fully loaded for tier one ratio? Just to make sure there's anything else in the BIS ratio.

speaker
Victor
CFO

Yes, that is it. It's fully loaded.

speaker
Tito Labarta
Goldman Sachs Analyst

Okay, perfect. Great. Thanks so much. Thank you.

speaker
André Parisi
Head of Investor Relations

Okay, next question is from Neha Argawala from HSBC. Neha, you may proceed.

speaker
Neha Argawala
HSBC Analyst

Thank you for taking my question. Just a quick one on the credit growth. Credit book was flat year on year. What should we expect going forward? Why don't we see a more strong growth on the credit side? Thank you so much.

speaker
André Mafra
CEO

Hi, Nica. So one important thing when we think about credit for XP, one main point for us, we don't want to pile up credit. So you cannot expect us like coming back here one year ahead and saying that now we have like 100, 200 billion rise in corporate credit. So we don't have Jesus strategy, we don't have the business to pile up credit. Of course, as the wholesale bank grows, we have to warehouse higher amount of volumes from investment banking for corporate bond flows and for other business lines, for example, credit risk from derivatives. So as the business grows, It will grow in nominal terms for sure, but not on the same growth rate as the business growth. Okay. So the idea here is always to recycle capital. Okay. And recycle fast. It's always to give credit with some collateral. And that's the strategy. So we don't have any strategy to pile up a big credit portfolio here. Okay.

speaker
Neha Argawala
HSBC Analyst

Very clear. Thank you so much.

speaker
André Parisi
Head of Investor Relations

Next question is from Daniel Vaz, Safra. Daniel, you may proceed.

speaker
Daniel Vaz
Analyst at Safra

Thank you, Parisi. Hi, Mafra, Vitor. Good night. So to hear my side, looking at your expenses, I was trying to see beyond XP Expert. So we see the other income and other expenses net line So we have another quarter of incentives coming from Tesoro Direto, B3, and also positive recoveries and reversal provisions. Can you comment on that, please, so we can get a sense on what are these other operating income way higher than a year ago? And second, trying to see and get more color on your equity income or as the name in the release, our share of profit on JVs and Associates. So it went from 41 million to negative three quarter over quarter. So any seasonality effects here, maybe associates pay higher cost to have a stand in XP expert. So if you can get a color here, it will be very helpful. Thank you.

speaker
André Mafra
CEO

Thank you for the question, Daniel. I will split the answer in three parts here. You first asked about the incentives. So as we have built one of the largest distribution channels in Brazil, we have today more than 18,000 advisors. Every time that we launch a new product, we have some players in the industry that want to have access to our distribution. And what happens? Usually they pay some fees. It can be upfront and it can be based on performance. depends on the product and on the partner okay but it's recurring okay there is not not an amount that's recurring every month but is recurring to have this kind of one offs okay from different partners from credit cards from b3 from consortium from other players okay from whole life insurance so you guys can expect this type of one offs to be recurring okay so because it's part of giving access to these partners to our distribution the second question that you asked it was about about the reversion in provisions I imagine that it's the on the expected credit loss that you mentioned we had a 42 million from the ACWA payment there was a provision and it was reverted so a good way of thinking about expected credit loss for a regular quarter, it's 80 million. That's a good number, around this number. It can be a little bit less, a little bit more because we have some credit on the wholesale book that is less stable, but that's a good proxy. And the third one about my large interest that you asked, it was 41 million last quarter. It was almost zero this quarter. So we have done some deals with different players, with some asset management, with especially IFAs, and some of them, they are like going through some reorganizations, as I mentioned, some of them, they are like... going to employee agreement some of them they are liking in different states but i would say that for next year you can expect this line to be a little bit higher than this year okay and a little bit more stable than this year okay because we have a lot of reorganizations this year and these investments that we have done in the past years in IFA's, assets and other business, they will start to pay off next year. Okay, so it's going to be a little bit higher.

speaker
Daniel Vaz
Analyst at Safra

Okay, thank you for the detailed answer. Very helpful.

speaker
André Parisi
Head of Investor Relations

Okay, next question is from Henrique Navarro from Santander. Henrique, you may proceed. Navarro, are you listening to us? We're going to move to the next one. If Navajo comes up, we're going to attend you. So the next one is Andrew Garrity from Morgan Stanley. Andrew, you may proceed.

speaker
Andrew Garrity
Analyst at Morgan Stanley

Hi, everyone. Congratulations on the results and thank you for the opportunity to ask questions. I just want to briefly touch on the take rate, which was certainly a highlight of the quarter, expanding on a sequential basis. It looks like a lot of the improvement kind of came from the fixed income retail take rate. And so just kind of wanted to ask, I know you had mentioned some new products on the fixed income side. Is there anything in particular that makes you believe that this higher take rate on fixed income specifically is sustainable? Or is this, again, just kind of a quarter to quarter fluctuation? Thanks.

speaker
Victor
CFO

Hi, Andrew. Thank you for your question.

speaker
Victor
CFO

Basically, the highlight of the quarter in the retail line was fixed income, and that's what was driving the take rate higher. As we expect the retail revenue to keep growing in the pace of our guidance, you can expect the take rate to be stable or slightly higher than what it is today.

speaker
Andrew Garrity
Analyst at Morgan Stanley

Okay, thank you.

speaker
André Mafra
CEO

Compliment Vitor here. We have been mentioning that for a few quarters, I would say. When we think about take rate, when you look at our guidance, we didn't factor a better take rate into the guidance. But if you ask our view, at some point the market will change and we expect to see a change in the mix of products toward more higher ROA products because most of the money flew to fixed income products with low ROA in the past quarters or years. At some point that will revert And we can expect a higher take rate. So that's our view. But a higher take rate is not factored into our guidance for 2026. So you can consider that an upside if it starts to go up.

speaker
Andrew Garrity
Analyst at Morgan Stanley

Okay, got it. But you do think that at least over the coming quarters, take rate, as mentioned earlier, should be somewhat flat to slightly higher from here is a reasonable assumption. Yeah. Okay, thank you.

speaker
André Parisi
Head of Investor Relations

Paris, can you hear me now? Breno Pavão from Autonomous. Breno, you may proceed.

speaker
Renato Meloni
Autonomous Analyst

Hi, hello. Can you guys hear me? Yes.

speaker
André Parisi
Head of Investor Relations

Yes.

speaker
Renato Meloni
Autonomous Analyst

Oh, hi, this is Renato Meloni from Autonomous. I think it was just a link issue here. So I just wanted to deep dive on the fixed income take rate. That's a large expansion this quarter, right? So can you explain the breakdown here of how much was client activity and how much was from the securities that you're having or market to market of securities you're having in your balance sheet? And then further down, just thinking here of the dynamics that we're seeing market with spreads compressing and the cycle rates, how do you expect the fixed income take rate to behave in the next couple of quarters? Thank you.

speaker
Victor
CFO

Thank you, Andrew. We don't disclose this level of detail in the fixed income line. What we can say is that almost everything that we are housing in the last quarter, we sold this one and that was one of the drivers of the revenue. About the credit spreads, we are seeing some inflection, but as we said before, the DCM pipeline is still very hot and the demand for the client demand is still all time high. So we don't expect any structural changes in the market.

speaker
Renato Meloni
Autonomous Analyst

Okay, so similar take rates in the next few quarters.

speaker
Victor
CFO

Better and bigger than ever before.

speaker
Renato Meloni
Autonomous Analyst

Sorry, I don't know if you could hear me. So similar take rates, fixed income take rates in the next quarter.

speaker
Victor
CFO

Yes, we believe so.

speaker
Renato Meloni
Autonomous Analyst

Okay, thank you.

speaker
André Parisi
Head of Investor Relations

Okay, next question is Henrique. Hi, Paris. Can you hear me now? Hello? Navajo, are you there? Yeah, can you hear me now? Yeah, we can.

speaker
Henrique Navarro
Santander Analyst

You may proceed, please. Sorry for that. My question is on competition. All the large banks have been advancing with their own IFAs, I4 internal financial advisors, as well as improving the open investment platforms. You know, the level of competition XP is facing was not there like maybe two or three years ago and it has been increasing. How do you see, you know, this advancement of competition from the large banks affecting your businesses?

speaker
André Mafra
CEO

Thank you for the question, Navarro. I would say, of course, the incumbent banks, they are not sitting down doing nothing. But for us, the most structural change in the last, I would say, two years It's not that the banks, the incumbent banks, they improved a lot in investments. And the main reason is the high interest rates, tax exempt products and so on. OK, so if you look some of these incumbent banks. without giving any names, they didn't improve at all in investments. But when you look at the NPS from affluent clients from the same bank, the NPS went up like 40 bps. The main reason is the level of profitability that they can have with these tax exempt products. It's a little bit harder to compete with the incumbent banks with this environment. But again, we are not like blaming the macro environment. We are not waiting the macro to get better. And our guidance doesn't depend on the macro environment. That's an upside. But for us, it's more the environment than the structural change in most of these incumbent banks.

speaker
Henrique Navarro
Santander Analyst

Thank you very much. That was very clear.

speaker
André Parisi
Head of Investor Relations

Okay, that was the last question. So we thank you for your participation. And our team and the management are available for further questions. It will be a pleasure to answer any one that you send to us. Thank you, and we will talk soon.

Disclaimer

This conference call transcript was computer generated and almost certianly contains errors. This transcript is provided for information purposes only.EarningsCall, LLC makes no representation about the accuracy of the aforementioned transcript, and you are cautioned not to place undue reliance on the information provided by the transcript.

Q3XP 2024

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